Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The pricing of iron ore has deviated from supply - demand fundamentals, and is strongly supported by macro factors. Although overseas supply has weakened marginally and domestic demand has rebounded, the pricing of black commodities and iron ore is still driven by the upward macro risk appetite and capital's pursuit of commodities. In the short - term, supported by macro expectations, iron ore prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: At the beginning of the year, shipments and freight rates of mainstream mines have both declined. There are also news disturbances regarding the acceptance of Jinbuba ore and the pricing indices used by Rio Tinto and FMG at the beginning of the year. For example, global shipments were 3213.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463.4 million tons; Australian shipments were 1874.0 million tons, a decrease of 165.7 million tons; Brazilian shipments were 792.5 million tons, a decrease of 151.5 million tons [4][5][16]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Shipments from Ukraine are expected to resume in 2026 according to shipping schedules. Shipments from countries like India, Peru, Canada, and South Africa also show different trends [20]. - **Domestic Mines**: After the New Year's Day, the operation rate in the southwest region has significantly increased [29]. 3.2 Demand - **Downstream Demand**: The marginal change in downstream demand is small, generally in line with market expectations. There may be a pre - Spring Festival restocking drive, and the molten iron output has rebounded on a week - on - week basis. The 247 - enterprise molten iron output was 229.50 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 million tons [5][32]. - **Substitution Effect of Scrap Steel**: The price trends of iron ore and scrap steel have diverged again, and the scrap - iron price difference continues to narrow [35]. 3.3 Inventory Port inventories remain at a high level. The 45 - port imported ore inventory was 16275.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 304.4 million tons [4][39]. 3.4 Downstream Profits The futures market profits of downstream products continue to be weak [43]. 3.5 Spot Category Price Differences The price of imported PB fines remains relatively strong [47]. 3.6 Futures Market Spreads - **Inter - month Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is slightly lower than the same period last year, and the market is still waiting for a driving force to widen [51]. - **Basis**: The basis has weakened and returned to the level of the same period last year [56]. 3.7 Contract Performance The price performance of the main 05 contract remains strong, closing at 820.50 yuan/ton. The open interest was 639,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 46,500 lots; the average daily trading volume was 341,300 lots, a week - on - week increase of 6,400 lots [9]. 3.8 Spot Price Performance The prices of medium - grade iron ore have shown strength again. For example, the price of PB fines in Qingdao Port increased from 802 yuan/ton last week to 826 yuan/ton this week [10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile overall. Considering the low inventory and the compressed profit of secondary lead, a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. Attention should also be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage due to the continuous premium of the spot [7]. - Primary lead smelters are under maintenance, leading to pressured primary lead production, while the output of secondary lead is increasing. On the demand side, the purchasing willingness is weak [7]. - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Price and Spread - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,355 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.94%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.37%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,970, with a weekly decline of 1.20% [8]. - The LME lead premium changed from - 37.81 to - 46.54, a decrease of 8.73; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 100; the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0; the spread between secondary lead and primary lead changed from - 50 to - 125, a decrease of 75 [8]. - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract changed from - 15 to - 40.90, a decrease of 25.90 [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - The total lead inventory in five regions increased this week, but the absolute inventory is at a historically low level. The inventory of Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 2,724 to 16,188; the total inventory of Shanghai lead increased by 2,107 to 30,111; the social inventory increased by 600 to 19,600; the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 222,725, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 5.06% to 27.04% [3][8]. 3.1.3 Transaction and Position - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last Friday was 58,684 lots, an increase of 1,799 compared with the previous week; the position was 42,928 lots, a decrease of 8,072 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 last Friday was 6,649 lots, an increase of 2241 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Supply Aspects (Primary Lead, Secondary Lead, Lead Concentrate) 3.2.1 Lead Concentrate - The import volume, production volume, actual consumption volume, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in the historical data charts, but no specific latest data is summarized here. The import TC of lead concentrate is in US dollars per dry ton, and the domestic TC is in yuan per ton [29][30]. - The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate is also presented in the historical data charts [31]. 3.2.2 Primary Lead - The production of primary lead is under pressure. Primary lead smelters in Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and other places are under continuous maintenance, affecting the supply of primary lead. The weekly production and operating rate data of primary lead are presented in the historical data charts [7][34]. 3.2.3 Secondary Lead - The profit of secondary lead enterprises is compressed, but the output has increased as heavy - pollution weather warnings have been lifted in Henan, Anhui and other places. However, with the weakening of consumption, the circulation of waste batteries is tight, and the raw material arrival volume is low this week [7]. - The production, operating rate, raw material inventory, cost, profit and loss data of secondary lead are presented in the historical data charts [34][39][40]. 3.3 Demand Aspects (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) 3.3.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lead - acid battery enterprises are gradually resuming production, but battery consumption is weak, and the finished - product inventory of batteries continues to increase. The operating rate, finished - product inventory days, and export volume data of lead - acid batteries are presented in the historical data charts [7][45]. 3.3.2 End - Users - The actual consumption volume of lead and the production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the historical data charts, reflecting the consumption situation of end - users [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Microscopically, there is a long - term bullish view on copper, with a strong price trend. However, increased macro - level disturbance factors lead to greater price fluctuations. The macro situation includes the US December non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate increase hitting a new low since 2020, and the market expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by about 50 basis points in 2026, with the probability of a January rate cut at zero and the first cut expected in June. The US Supreme Court has not announced a verdict on Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling will be on January 14. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months [7]. - Fundamentally, the short - term domestic spot driving logic has temporarily weakened, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. The global copper inventory increased this week, with a significant increase in social inventory. As of January 8, 2026, the global total inventory was 950,300 tons, an increase of 44,900 tons from January 1. The domestic social inventory increased by 39,400 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 15,300 tons. The domestic spot discount has narrowed to 45 yuan/ton, indicating that the decline in price has led to a rebound in downstream demand. The LME 0 - 3 premium has expanded from $38.60/ton on January 2 to $41.94/ton on January 9 [7]. - In the long term, the fundamentals still support the copper price. The port inventory of copper concentrates has continued to decline, dropping rapidly from 680,000 tons on December 26 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The long - term TC for imported copper concentrates in China in 2026 is $0/ton, significantly lower than the 2025 level, which indicates a tight supply of copper concentrates. China is preventing blind investment and disorderly construction in smelters and encouraging large backbone enterprises to implement mergers and reorganizations to improve industrial competitiveness, which may also lead to structural changes in the smelting industry. From the consumption side, the long - term consumption recovery expectation remains strong, and the consumption logic of emerging industries such as AI computing centers is constantly strengthening. Giants like OpenAI and Microsoft are increasing infrastructure investment, and many places in the US are promoting gigawatt - scale cluster projects, with single - project investment exceeding $10 billion, focusing on the deployment of high - density liquid - cooling technology. At the same time, local US governments are attracting investment through incentive policies such as tax exemptions and fee - for - tax deductions. However, policy uncertainties brought about by the mid - term elections and the Fed's leadership change may affect the industry's investment rhythm and implementation process. In addition, new energy vehicles and global power grid upgrades remain the core driving forces, and power grid renovations in Europe and the US and the expansion of the manufacturing industry in Southeast Asia continue to contribute to the increase [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term rigid replenishment of downstream enterprises provides a bottom support for prices. Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged. Currently, the price fluctuates greatly, so it is particularly important to find a good safety margin for buying. In terms of spread trading, the current profit margin for spot exports has narrowed, so be cautious with internal - external reverse arbitrage [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 20%, and the SHFE copper volatility has reached about 25%, showing a significant rebound from the previous week [13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened marginally. The spread between SHFE 01 - 02 contracts was - 200 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, lower than 560 yuan/ton on December 31. The LME copper spot premium has expanded, with the LME 0 - 3 premium reaching $41.94/ton on January 9, higher than $38.60/ton on January 2. The near - end C structure of COMEX copper has expanded, with the price spread between the February and March 2026 contracts being - $68.34/ton on January 9, significantly wider than - $55.12/ton on January 2 [20]. - **Position**: The positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased, with the SHFE copper position increasing by 63,900 lots to 681,600 lots, while the LME copper position has decreased [21]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, from 77,500 lots on December 24 to 72,600 lots on January 2. The net long position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises has decreased from 59,800 lots on December 30 to 57,900 lots on January 6 [27]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, from a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31 to a discount of 45 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026. The Yangshan Port copper premium has declined, from $51/ton on December 31 to $42/ton on January 9. The US copper premium has remained at a high level. The Rotterdam copper premium has increased from $185/ton on January 2 to $200/ton on January 9, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained at $187.5/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, from 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026, to 950,300 tons on January 8. The domestic social inventory has increased, from 238,900 tons on January 1 to 273,800 tons on January 8, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The bonded area inventory has increased from 75,500 tons on December 31 to 78,800 tons on January 8. The COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, rising from 499,800 short tons on January 2 to 518,000 short tons on January 9. The LME copper inventory has decreased, from 155,300 tons on January 2 to 139,000 tons on January 9 [38]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE copper 02 contract has declined and is at a low level in the same period of history. The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has fluctuated, indicating that the overseas spot lacks a driving logic [39]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrates**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year. According to customs data, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased, from 496,000 tons on January 2 to 428,000 tons on January 9. The processing fee for copper concentrates has remained weak, and the smelting loss has decreased from 1,988 yuan/ton on December 31 to 2,016 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [45]. - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has increased. In November, the import of recycled copper was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, the domestic production of recycled copper was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has expanded and is higher than the break - even point, and the import loss of recycled copper has turned into a profit [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased month - on - month. In November, the import was 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the processing fee for blister copper has recovered, with the southern processing fee at 1,500 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at $95/ton [55]. - **Refined Copper**: The domestic production of refined copper has increased year - on - year. In November, the production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. The import volume of refined copper has decreased. In November, the import was 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The loss of copper spot imports has narrowed, from a loss of 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 to a loss of 981.04 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026 [58]. 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper tube and copper plate and strip foil enterprises have rebounded but are at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of January 8, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises has declined marginally [62]. - **Profit**: The processing fee for copper rods has rebounded but is at a low level in the same period of history. As of January 9, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 410 yuan/ton, higher than 240 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fee for copper tubes has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period of history. On January 9, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes was 5,368 yuan/ton, higher than 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31. The processing fees for copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils have remained stable and are at a low level [67]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a moderately low level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to decline [68]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: In November, the finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable enterprises has decreased [71]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual consumption of copper has performed well. From January to November, the cumulative consumption was 14.5615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.14%. From January to November, the apparent consumption was 14.6431 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.44%. Industries such as power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy are important supports for copper consumption. Among them, the growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down. From January to November, the cumulative power grid investment was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.90% [78]. - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%. In November, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [79].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4454元/吨，环比持平，与上周趋势相比由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初个别纸企报盘上 调，出货基本稳定，经销商谨慎拿货为主，备货意愿偏低；第二，江西地区个别停机产线复产，市场供应压力增加；第三，出版订单继续提 货，下游印厂社会面接单有限，采买热情欠佳，整体交投偏刚需；第四，上游木浆价格部分上涨，成本面对双胶纸支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price fluctuations of domestic and international fuel oils have significantly increased recently, with the up - and - down trends reversing frequently. For high - sulfur fuel oil, stable Middle - East exports and the off - season of marine fuel will put downward pressure on prices. However, due to the un - recovered heavy - oil supply in Venezuela and potential geopolitical conflicts in Iran, the high - sulfur market remains uncertain, and prices are unlikely to decline in a trending manner in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the Al Zour refinery will gradually resume production, there are still upward drivers. Brazilian exports are showing a decline, and the Dangote refinery's maintenance will end in January, leading to reduced exports. Additionally, the geopolitical issues in Venezuela will bring risk premiums. In the short term, domestic and international low - sulfur prices will remain strong. But the stronger domestic market than the overseas market will widen the internal - external price spread, attracting domestic traders to import for profit, which will have a negative impact on domestic prices [4]. - The valuation of FU is 2400 - 2550, and LU is 2900 - 3150. Unilaterally, fuel oil prices have entered a high - volatility environment in the short term, and the direction of price movement is unclear. In terms of inter - period spreads, the monthly spread structures of FU and LU have returned to backwardation and may return to contango after geopolitical issues cool down. For inter - variety spreads, the short - term cracking spreads of FU and LU have reached low levels, and the LU - FU spread will enter a volatile phase in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries) from 2016 - 2025, showing the trends in refinery operations [8]. - It also shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2026, reflecting the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [11][13][15][16]. - Data on the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil (including total and low - sulfur fuel oil) from 2018 - 2025 are provided, indicating the domestic supply situation [20][21]. Demand - The report provides monthly data on the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2020 - 2025, the sales volume of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore from 2018 - 2025, and the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025, showing the demand situation at home and abroad [25]. Inventory - It presents data on the spot inventory of global fuel oil, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore from 2018 - 2026, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA from 2018 - 2026, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah from 2018 - 2026, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US from 2018 - 2026 [29][31][32]. Price and Spread - **Regional Spot FOB Prices**: The report shows the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region (Singapore, Fujairah, Mediterranean, etc.), Europe (North - West Europe, US Gulf), and the US from 2018 - 2026 [37][39][42][46]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It includes the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in North - West Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of FU and LU futures contracts from 2021 - 2026 [49][50][52]. - **Spot Spreads**: The report presents data on the viscosity spread and high - low - sulfur spread in Singapore from 2018 - 2026 [58][59]. - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2019 - 2026 [61][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and North - West Europe from 2022 - 2026 are provided [65]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [70][72]. - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Singapore from 2018 - 2026 are shown [74]. - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: The weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore, China, the US, and the Middle East from 2018 - 2026 are presented [76]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: The weekly Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices entered a volatile phase, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. The impact of geopolitical issues on overseas spot prices gradually subsided, and the spread between domestic futures prices and overseas spot prices gradually narrowed as the number of warehouse receipts decreased [79]. - **Logic**: In the short term, due to the cooling of geopolitical events, the strength of the overseas spot market has declined. At the same time, the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU has started to decrease. It is expected that the spreads between FU, LU, and the Singapore market will increase in the short term [79]. - **Internal - External Spreads in the Spot and Futures Markets**: The report shows the internal - external spreads of 380 and 0.5% fuel oil in the spot and futures markets from 2021 - 2026 [83][84][85]. - **Changes in FU and LU Positions and Trading Volumes**: Data on the trading volumes and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts from 2020 - 2026 are provided [91][97][100]. - **Changes in FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Numbers**: The changes in the number of warehouse receipts for FU and LU from 2020 - 2026 are presented [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is influenced by geopolitical factors, with rising geopolitical risks stimulating risk - aversion sentiment. It is judged that gold has reached a new starting point for an upward trend, and it is recommended to increase gold allocation [3]. - For silver, there are signs of weakening in both capital and fundamentals, and the pressure for continued price increases is growing. The trend - following long - position strategy is worth exiting, but the long - term upward trend has not ended. Strategies such as buying silver puts, buying gold, and using platinum and palladium for short - position protection are recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 3.24%, and London silver rose 5.29%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 58 to 57. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.9%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.18% (2 - year 3.54%), and the US dollar index was 99.13 [3]. - Overseas gold: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 9.395 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 45.4 dollars per ounce [10]. - Overseas silver: The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.114 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.37 dollars per ounce [16]. - Domestic gold: The current - futures spread was - 3.56 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the inter - monthly spread was 8.66 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22][28]. - Domestic silver: The current - futures spread was 28 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the inter - monthly spread was 31 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [24][31]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.83 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 53.2% [39]. - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 312 tons to 13677 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 28.4% [41]. - Domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 0.05 tons, and domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 71.38 tons to 620 tons [45]. - **Position and Capital** - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold and silver both decreased slightly [47]. - Gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 0.57 tons, and domestic gold ETF increased by 5.8 tons [50]. - Silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 135 tons [54]. - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, it was mainly paid from shorts to longs, indicating strong receiving power [37]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [63]. - Information on inflation, retail sales performance, non - farm employment performance, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented in the form of charts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text. - The 3M gold lease rate was - 0.35%, and the 3M silver lease rate was 5.35% [58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is strongly priced by macro factors, and its price is likely to rise rather than fall. It is rated as neutral to strong in terms of strength analysis [2][6]. - In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate zinc prices, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upside potential of prices. In the short - term, under the influence of strong market sentiment and geopolitical conflicts, the risk premium of non - ferrous metals has increased significantly, and zinc prices are difficult to weaken under the strong macro - pricing logic [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Price Changes**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,970, with a weekly increase of 2.99%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3,149, with a weekly increase of 0.70% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 143,227, a decrease of 11,716 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 76,633, a decrease of 9,946. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 15,979, an increase of 8,265, and the open interest was 233,998, an increase of 3,770 [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic inventories showed a slight accumulation. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,946, while the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 4,059. The social inventory increased by 12,400, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import zinc ore processing fee decreased by 6 to 38 dollars/ton, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained stable at 1,500 yuan/ton. The import zinc ore smelting profit increased by 2,921 to 38 yuan/ton, and the domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 200 to - 1,554 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have declined from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories have decreased [10]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows. Mine enterprise profits have rebounded to a medium - high level in history, smelting profits have rebounded but are still at a low level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits have remained stable at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc smelting production capacity utilization has continued to decline, and downstream production capacity utilization is at a medium - low level in history. Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, refined zinc production capacity utilization has declined to a medium level in the same period, and downstream galvanizing production capacity utilization has increased, while die - casting zinc and zinc oxide production capacity utilization have declined to a medium - low level [14][15]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin have fluctuated strongly. Overseas premiums have shown differentiation this week, with the premium in Singapore remaining stable, and the premium in Antwerp rebounding. The LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and turned into a C structure [18][19]. - **Price Spreads**: The C structure of SHFE zinc has widened [21]. - **Inventory**: This week, there has been a slight reduction in inventory, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has decreased. LME inventories are mainly concentrated in the Singapore region, with a significant increase in total LME inventories. The ratio of cancelled warrants has dropped significantly to a historical low. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [26][32][34]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level in the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, the import ore processing fee has decreased this week, and the domestic ore processing fee has remained stable. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and the smelter raw material inventory has rebounded [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting production has declined to a medium level in the same period in history. The smelter finished product inventory has rebounded to a high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Recycled Zinc Raw Materials**: No comprehensive summary information is available. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [55]. - **Downstream**: The monthly production capacity utilization of downstream industries has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - low level in the same period in history. The raw material and finished product inventories of downstream industries show different changes [58][60][65]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [72]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon allowances, and electricity in different countries show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries also varies [74][75][77].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：震荡偏强 强弱分析：偏强 价格区间：345000-375000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 02-02 02-18 03-03 03-14 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-29 05-13 05-24 06-06 06-17 06-30 07-11 07-22 08-02 08-13 08-25 09-05 09-16 09-27 10-15 10-27 11-07 11-18 11-29 12-10 12-22 吨 SMM社会库存 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 01-02 01- ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 11, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhou Fuqiang [2] Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views PE - The supply of PE is expected to remain relatively loose in the future, with increased imports at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026. The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. The price is under pressure before the Spring Festival [5][6]. - The cost - side support for PE is average, and the inventory de - stocking is not smooth. The market is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with a suggestion of shorting on rebounds [6]. PP - In the off - season, the PP price is under pressure. The supply center has declined recently, and the Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level in the short term [92]. - The downstream demand is mixed, with some industries showing weakening demand and others having certain support. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rebounds [93][94]. Summary by Directory PE Section Price & Spread - The futures price of PE has shown a strong and volatile trend, with the basis remaining stable, and the 5 - 9 month spread strengthening to - 31. The production profit of different processes has different degrees of change, with the oil - based profit at - 520 (+30), and the coal - based at - 80(+70) [6]. - The domestic and overseas prices and spreads of PE have changed, with the Chinese arrival price increasing by 10 - 30 dollars, and the import window gradually opening [15][24]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PE was 16%, and the domestic production growth rate was 18%. The overall start - up rate was 83.7% (+0.4%). Although there were some maintenance and production conversions, the supply was still relatively high [6]. - The import of PE is expected to increase at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, and the new order imports are relatively cautious [6]. Demand & Inventory - The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is in a seasonal off - peak period, with the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing and the demand for raw materials expected to decrease [6]. - The inventory de - stocking of PE is not smooth, with the social inventory de - stocking slowing down, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory can be transferred downstream [6]. PP Section Price & Spread - The basis of PP is weakly volatile, and the month spread is weakening. The production profit of different processes is under pressure, with the oil - based profit at - 1300 (+10), and the coal - based at - 220(-50) [94]. - The Chinese arrival price of PP has rebounded, and the import window is tending to open, but the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [108]. Supply - In 2025, the total effective capacity growth rate of PP was 12.7%, and the annual production growth rate was 16.7%. The Q1 PDH device maintenance plan has increased, and the supply center has declined [92]. - The PP import volume is expected to be limited in the short term, and the export volume is also restricted by factors such as freight and overseas demand, and is expected to remain at a basic level [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate of PP has declined, but the demand for some industries such as BOPP films is relatively good. The overall inventory de - stocking is not smooth, and the inventory is relatively high compared to the same period [93][94].

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：锚定铝价，价格震荡偏强 强弱分析：中性偏强 精废价差骤增 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 ADC12-A00价差 ...