Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2] 2. Core View - The current situation is strong in reality but weak in expectation, with a trend of reverse arbitrage. Due to the current consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter. The spot will continue to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit points. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,440 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,125 yuan/ton (down 260 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the price of the生猪2511 contract is 14,250 yuan/ton (down 135 yuan/ton year - on - year) [1] 3.2 Market Logic - In the short term, due to the consumption off - season, limited downstream digestion capacity, increased selling intention of some retail farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated slaughter and continued weakness in the spot. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, and the spread structure has switched to reverse arbitrage. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: For the生猪2509 contract, the trading volume is 63,935 lots (an increase of 6,892 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 61,415 lots (a decrease of 881 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2511 contract, the trading volume is 24,447 lots (an increase of 1,370 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 49,491 lots (a decrease of 571 lots from the previous day). For the生猪2601 contract, the trading volume is 28,297 lots (an increase of 3,652 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 43,340 lots (an increase of 1,837 lots from the previous day) [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data of different contracts are provided, such as the生猪2509 basis,生猪2511 basis,生猪2601 basis,生猪9 - 11 spread, and生猪11 - 1 spread, along with their year - on - year changes [4]

2025 年 7 月 29 日 原油：多单持有，寻求突破 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收涨 1.55 美元/桶，涨幅 2.38%，报 66.71 美元/桶；布伦特 9 月原油期货收涨 1.60 美元/桶，涨幅 2.34%，报 70.04 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收涨 8.90 元/桶，涨幅 1.80%，报 504.50 元/桶。 8. 市场消息：欧佩克+联合部长级监督委员会（JMMC）重申完全遵守配额的重要性。将于 10 月 1 日举行下一次 JMMC 会议。 1. 美国高级行政官员：特朗普建议欧盟在其任期内购买 1 万亿美元的美国能源，欧盟最终决定以 购买 7500 亿美元达成协议。 2. 也门胡塞武装：我们将针对任何与以色列港口有业务往来的企业所属船只，无论其国籍如何。 3. 金十数据 7 月 28 日讯，当地时间 27 日，在与美国总统特朗普宣布欧盟美国达成重大贸易协议 后，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩对外解释其在对美贸易谈判中的部分决定。冯德莱恩 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 124, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: July 25, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The average daily trading volume within the week was over 600,000 tons, and the CEA price fluctuated downward. The CEA main contract continued its weakness, with 288,000 tons listed and 0 tons in bulk transactions. The CCER listed agreement trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change) [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, and 74.04 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.32%, and - 0.63% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 1.00 ton, 7.15 tons, and 20.69 tons respectively [8]. - CCER: The trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change), and the transaction amount was 211,500 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 239,320 tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 28 日 燃料油：高硫燃料油东西方价差分析框架与行 情展望 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang024064@gtjas.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 在高硫燃料油的衍生品市场上，交易者们日常关注的主要是裂解价差、月间价差和高低硫价差，但产生 于西北欧和新加坡两个基准作价区域之间的东西方价差则相对缺乏关注。实际上，从历史数据来看，该价差 从 2023 年开始波动率明显上升，不论是做空还是做多都有足够大的利润空间。因此，本篇报告将从复盘价 差历史走势和分析当期市场核心驱动开始，总结出一些影响东西方价差波动的核心因素，并对今年余下时 间价差可能的波动方向做出判断和策略展望。 期货研究 1.1 价差历史走势复盘 东西方价差，也称 EW（East-West）价差，其中的东方指的是新加坡市场的 FOB 价格，西方则对应 ARA， 即西北欧地区的 FOB 价格，计算方法为东方价格减去西方价格。一般来说，跨地区的价差代表的是两个区 域内同一商品市场的强弱对比，同时如果两个地区存在现货流通，这一价差也具有贸易利润的现实意义 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, China's new energy storage installations reached 21.9GW/55.2GWh, with a capacity scale up 76.6% year-on-year. The full - year new installation is expected to reach 110.8GWh, a slight 3% increase year - on - year. However, the demand front - loading phenomenon is obvious, and the second - half installation may decline year - on - year [1]. - The US energy storage market is booming, with an expected annual new installation of 15.8GW/49.8GWh, a 34% increase year - on - year. In Europe, large - scale energy storage is on the rise while household energy storage remains weak. Emerging countries have slow commissioning speeds but high planned scales [2]. - In June 2025, energy storage battery exports rebounded, while inverter exports decreased. The domestic energy storage system bid price rebounded slightly, and overseas prices remained stable [3]. - From June to July, energy - storage - related policies were intensively introduced, focusing on power market mechanisms and energy storage subsidies, which is conducive to accelerating the marketization of independent energy storage and improving project profitability [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Domestic Market: New Installation Peak Front - loaded, Bid Scale Remains High 3.1.1 Domestic Energy Storage New Installation: Demand Front - loaded in June, "531" Rush - installation Drove High H1 Installations - In H1 2025, domestic new energy storage installations reached 21.9GW/55.2GWh, with a capacity scale up 76.6% year - on - year. The "531" rush - installation in new energy power stations drove synchronous energy storage installations, advancing the grid - connection peak to before June. In June, new installations were 4.1GW/10.3GWh, a 19.3% year - on - year decline [1][8]. - In terms of application scenarios, grid - side energy storage dominated, accounting for 60%. In terms of technology, lithium iron phosphate was mainstream, and long - duration energy storage was gradually penetrating [9]. 3.1.2 Domestic Energy Storage Future Installation: Bid Scale Keeps Rising, Annual Installation Expected to Slightly Increase - In June 2025, the energy storage bid scale continued to grow rapidly, reaching 4.6GW/23.5GWh, a 128% year - on - year increase in capacity. Independent energy storage projects accounted for 88% [13]. - The full - year new installation is expected to reach 110.8GWh, a 3% increase year - on - year. After the cancellation of mandatory energy storage policies, the bid scale still increased significantly. The proportion of independent energy storage in bid projects is expected to continue rising, and the average charge - discharge duration of front - of - meter energy storage is expected to drop to 2.3 hours [17]. - Behind - the - meter energy storage growth may be slower than expected due to time - of - use electricity price policy adjustments. It is expected to add 4.7GW/10GWh in 2025, a 27% increase year - on - year [18]. 3.2 Overseas Market: Planned Scales in Emerging Countries Keep Increasing, European and American Markets Perform Well 3.2.1 US Energy Storage Installation: Completion Rate Improves as Expected, Installation Forecast Remains High - In May, the new grid - connected energy storage (≥1MW) in the US was 1555.1MW, a 44% year - on - year increase, with a project planning completion rate of 57%. The annual new installation is expected to be 15.8GW/49.8GWh, a 34% increase year - on - year [21]. - In Q1 2025, the new installation was 2042MW/5034MWh, with a capacity installation up 39% year - on - year. Front - of - meter energy storage maintained high - speed growth, while behind - the - meter energy storage had different performances: weak commercial and industrial installations and strong household energy storage [26]. 3.2.2 European Energy Storage Installation: Large - scale Energy Storage Rises, Household Energy Storage Remains Weak - In June 2025, Germany's new energy storage installations were 243MW/456MWh, with a capacity down 7% year - on - year and up 12% month - on - month. Large - scale energy storage boomed, while household energy storage continued to be weak [29]. - In the UK, large - scale energy storage in Q2 2025 increased by 141% year - on - year, and the annual new installation is expected to be 3.4GWh, a 17% increase year - on - year. In Italy, the new installation in Q1 2025 decreased by 57.8% year - on - year, and the annual new installation is expected to be 5.1GWh, a 15% decrease year - on - year [33]. 3.2.3 Emerging Countries Installation: Slow Commissioning Speed, Planned Scales Keep Increasing - In Chile, the actual commissioning speed is slow, but the planned scale has increased significantly. The annual new installation is expected to be 4.3GWh, an 83% increase year - on - year [35][36]. - In Australia, the energy storage market construction accelerated in Q1 2025. The annual new installation is expected to be around 10GWh. In India, the mandatory energy storage policy has brought new increments [38][39]. 3.2.4 Energy Storage Battery and Inverter Export Tracking: Exports Recover, Overseas Demand is Stable and Positive - In June 2025, energy storage battery exports rebounded to 8.5GWh, a 35.2% year - on - year and 54.7% month - on - month increase. Inverter exports decreased to 512.9 million units, a 12.4% year - on - year and 13.1% month - on - month decrease [40]. - In June, exports to the US and Europe showed different trends. The cumulative exports of inverters to Europe from January to June increased by over 40% year - on - year, indicating strong European demand [40]. 3.3 Energy Storage Industry Price Tracking: Domestic Energy Storage System Bid Price Rebounds, Overseas Prices Remain Stable 3.3.1 Domestic Energy Storage - related Prices: Battery Cells Remain Stable, Terminal Bid Price Rebounds - In June, the average bid price of 2 - hour energy storage systems was 0.64 yuan/Wh, a 16.6% month - on - month increase, while that of 4 - hour systems was 0.432 yuan/Wh, a 9.6% month - on - month decrease [42]. - In June, energy storage battery cell prices remained stable. Enterprises' profits have recovered but are still at a low level. Inventory may face upward pressure after the end of the domestic rush - installation [48]. 3.3.2 Overseas Energy Storage - related Prices: Energy Storage System Prices Remain Flat, European Residential Electricity Prices Rise Slightly - In recent months, overseas energy storage system prices have remained stable. The US price is 0.835 yuan/Wh, Europe and Australia are 0.755 yuan/Wh, and Chile, South Africa, and the Middle East are 0.59 yuan/Wh [50]. - In June, European residential electricity prices rose slightly. Due to weak natural gas prices and soft Asian demand, European electricity prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [53]. 3.4 Policy Tracking: Independent Energy Storage Market Entry Accelerates, Capacity Subsidies are Imminent - From June to July, nine important energy - storage - related policies were introduced, focusing on power market mechanisms and energy storage subsidies. Independent energy storage marketization is accelerating, and capacity subsidy mechanisms in some regions are expected to improve project profitability [4][55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers daily insights and trend analyses for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. It assesses each commodity's price trends, supported by fundamental data and macro - industry news, and gives a trend strength rating for each commodity [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate downward, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][7][8]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Domestic inventory reduction restricts price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: High - level oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][13][15]. - Lead: Lacks driving force, price oscillates, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - Aluminum: High - level oscillation; Alumina has intense long - short game; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend strength is 0, Alumina is - 1, and Aluminum alloy is 0 [2][24][26]. - Nickel: Macro expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is dominated by macro sentiment, and the real - world situation needs repair, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Commodity prices fell on Friday night, pay attention to the spread of pessimistic sentiment, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Sentiment declines, pay attention to the risk of sharp decline, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Sentiment declines, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Resonance in sector market, strong - biased oscillation, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][40][42]. - Ferrosilicon: Disturbed by energy consumption and carbon emission information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1; Silicomanganese: Disturbed by industry's cut - throat competition information, strong - biased trend, with a trend strength of 1 [2][45][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Emotions are realized, wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][48][50]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovers, oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. Others - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly [2][56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of -1 [2][7]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - For copper, the decrease in domestic inventory restricts price decline, and its trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc is likely to experience high - level oscillations, with a trend strength of -1 [2][14]. - Lead lacks driving forces, and its price will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - Tin prices are disturbed by the flood in Wa State, and its trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 0; alumina has intense multi - empty games, with a trend strength of -1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25]. - For nickel, macro - expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price and Trading Data - Gold: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2510, and London gold spot were 777.32, 773.61, 3338.50, and 3336.68 respectively, with daily declines of 0.18%, 0.19%, 0.97%, and 0.97% [5]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T+D, Comex白银2510, and London silver spot were 9392, 9372, 38.325, and 38.158 respectively, with daily changes of 0.06%, 0.22%, - 2.44%, and - 2.40% [5]. Macro and Industry News - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff covering most EU goods exported to the US [5]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary monthly decline was - 9.3%, the largest since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [8]. - It is reported that after the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [8]. - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size saw a narrowed year - on - year decline to 4.3%, with the equipment manufacturing industry playing a prominent supporting role, and the automobile industry's profit increasing by 96.8% [8]. Copper Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铜主力合约 and 伦铜3M电子盘 were 79,250 and 9,796 respectively, with daily declines of 0.80% and 0.59% [9]. Macro and Industry News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement, expecting most agreements to be completed before August, and the possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [9]. - Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine in Azerbaijan started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate output of 4,000 tons in 2025 [9]. - At least four copper - carrying ships were trying to reach US ports before August 1 to avoid a 50% import tariff on copper [11]. Zinc Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锌主力合约 and 伦锌3M电子盘 were 22,885 and 2,829 respectively, with daily declines of 0.56% and 0.40% [12]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its position on China - EU differences such as so - called "over - capacity" and industrial subsidies [13]. Lead Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铅主力合约 and 伦铅3M电子盘 were 16,955 and 2,020.5 respectively, with a daily increase of 0.38% for沪铅主力合约 and a decline of 0.12% for 伦铅3M电子盘 [15]. News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [16]. Tin Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锡主力合约 and 伦锡3M电子盘 were 271,630 and 34,140 respectively, with daily declines of 0.85% and 1.50% [19]. Macro and Industry News - Similar to gold and silver, including US - EU trade agreement, US durable goods orders decline, Japan's possible interest rate hike, China's industrial enterprise profit situation, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Price and Trading Data - For aluminum, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20,760, and other related data such as trading volume, inventory, and spreads are provided [23]. - For alumina, the closing price of沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3428, and relevant data are also presented [23]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the alloy主力合约 was 20,135, and related data are included [23]. Comprehensive News - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size had a narrowed decline, and the automobile industry's profit increased significantly [25]. - Trump believed that Powell would start suggesting interest rate cuts [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price and Trading Data - For nickel, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,360, and various related industrial chain data are provided [26]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 13,030, and relevant data are also given [26]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [26]. - In April, China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project started trial production, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [27]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [27]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [28]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines was 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [28]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron output by about 1900 metal tons per month [28]. - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The futures index is in a volatile pattern with support at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Index Data Tracking - On July 26, 2025, the current - month contracts of the four major futures indices showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.48%, IH fell 0.58%, IC fell 0.02%, and IM rose 0.03% [1]. - In terms of closing prices, index values were as follows: CSI 300 was 4127.16, SSE 50 was 2795.51, CSI 500 was 6299.59, and CSI 1000 was 6706.61 [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of futures indices declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. IF's total trading volume decreased by 21687 lots, IH's by 6615 lots, IC's by 18535 lots, and IM's by 45693 lots [2]. - In terms of positions, IF's total position decreased by 11192 lots, IH's by 3451 lots, IC's by 4233 lots, and IM's by 11290 lots [2]. 3.2. Futures Index Member Position Changes - For IF contracts, the long - order changes of IF2508, IF2509, and IF2512 were - 3625, - 5795, and 532 respectively; the short - order changes were - 4398, - 6036, and 881 respectively [5]. - For IH contracts, the long - order changes of IH2508, IH2509, and IH2512 were - 8, - 2468, and - 154 respectively; the short - order changes were - 508, - 2599, and - 51 respectively [5]. - For IC contracts, the long - order changes of IC2508, IC2509, and IC2512 were - 2215, - 1875, and - 182 respectively; the short - order changes were - 2087, - 2628, and 298 respectively [5]. - For IM contracts, the long - order changes of IM2508, IM2509, and IM2512 were - 2637, - 6387, and - 540 respectively; the short - order changes were - 3420, - 7360, and 142 respectively [5]. 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with different levels of strength classification [6]. - The CSRC held a mid - year work meeting, emphasizing the basis and conditions for maintaining the stable and healthy operation of the capital market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Expenditures in key areas such as social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health increased [6]. - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the tariff increase deadline on August 1 would not be extended [6]. - A high - level US business delegation is set to visit China [6]. 3.4. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.23%. The A - share market's full - day trading volume was 1.82 trillion yuan, down from 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [7]. - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.76%, with all three major indices rising for five consecutive weeks [7]. - In the afternoon session, funds flowed out of cyclical stocks and back into the technology sector. Lithography machines and STAR Market chip stocks were in high demand, and Cambricon once rose 16%. The film and television and rare earth sectors were also active [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The forced circulation quota exhaustion node could be a real support for the carbon price reversal, with the exhaustion expected in mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, due to slow release of forced circulation quotas and low trading willingness, the carbon price may remain volatile. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released and the price may rise [6] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - The main carbon trading targets showed weak trends, and market transactions were mainly through listing agreements [4] - For CEA, the main target barely closed in the positive territory, with 41.7 tons listed and 12.4 tons in bulk transactions [4] - For CCER, the listing agreement trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase [4][10] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market Details | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2232.13 | | CEA21 | 74.40 | 0.00% | 3.06 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 74.50 | 0.40% | 0.10 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 74.44 | - 0.25% | - 0.06 | 70.81 | 30.59 | 18.17 | 12.42 | 0.01 | | CEA24 | 74.51 | 0.01% | 0.07 | N/A | 23.49 | 23.49 | 0.00 | 1750.60 | [8][9] CCER Market Details - The average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase, the transaction amount was 13.11 ten thousand yuan, the trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 239.07 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Supply-demand remains tight, recommend rolling bull spreads; unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging [1][7] - PTA: Supply pressure gradually emerges, recommend basis bear spreads; unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract [1][8] - MEG: Short-term bearish [9] 2. Core Views - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign in China boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread widens, but future Asian supply will gradually increase [3][7] - PTA: With the reduction of polyester product inventory and the increase of开工率, the possibility of large-scale production reduction decreases, and attention should be paid to the compression of PTA processing fees under high valuation [8] - MEG: Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, coal-based device profit rebounds, and the enthusiasm for EO device to switch to EG production increases [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: The "anti-involution" campaign boosts market sentiment, PX-naphtha spread reaches the highest level since June 30, and naphtha is under pressure [3] - MEG: Trend turns weak [4] Fundamental Data - PX: As of July 25, the operating rate of Chinese PX plants is about 79.9%, down from 81.1% the previous week [5] - MEG: Two Saudi ethylene glycol plants have restarted, and some EO-EG co-production plants plan to switch from EO to EG [5] - Polyester: A 500,000-ton polyester device in Wuxi stops due to a fault, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak [5] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, MEG: Trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [6] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilateral trend weakens, sell at high prices for hedging. Future Asian supply will gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the operation of PTA devices [7] - PTA: Unilateral trend weakens, industry can sell at high prices for hedging, focus on long PX short PTA in 01 contract, and pay attention to the compression of PTA processing fees [8] - MEG: Short-term bearish. Import volume is expected to fluctuate, domestic supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of devices [9]