Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating indicates a downward trend, with a trend strength of -1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,645 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 193,107 lots, an increase of 41,021 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 124,461 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 188,773 lots, a decrease of 1,902 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,546.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.31 yuan/ton [1] - The difference between ZN00 and ZN01 was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc's third - consecutive contract was -1,360.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.07 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 13,767 tons, an increase of 478 tons; LME Zinc's inventory was 115,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [1] - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME Zinc's cancelled warrants were 54,950 tons, an increase of 150 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 19,243 tons, a decrease of 2,712 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia on the Russia - Ukraine conflict to 10 - 12 days, causing crude oil to rise nearly 3% during the session [2] - Chile expects to obtain tariff exemptions from Trump, which caused New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the current situation of the lithium carbonate market, presenting detailed data on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including contract prices, trading volumes, open interest, and prices of various lithium-related products. It also mentions relevant macro and industry news and the trend strength of lithium carbonate [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 73,120 yuan, with a decrease of 7,400 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 1,005,395 lots, a decrease of 198,029 lots; the open interest is 378,472 lots, a decrease of 112,616 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 71,420 yuan, a decrease of 7,740 yuan; the trading volume is 327,845 lots, an increase of 58,097 lots; the open interest is 168,736 lots, an increase of 728 lots [1]. - **Other Data**: The warehouse receipt volume is 12,276 lots, an increase of 280 lots. The basis of spot - 2509 is 780 yuan, and spot - 2511 is 2,480 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 805 US dollars, a decrease of 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,805 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan, an increase of 1,000 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,737 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 991 yuan/ton; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The National Conference of Heads of Industry and Information Technology Departments was held in Beijing on July 28, aiming to deepen reforms, improve industry governance, and strengthen the construction of mandatory national standards in the industrial and information technology fields [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2507 | 7,330 | 7,387 | -57 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2508 | 7,360 | 7,602 | -242 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2509 | 7,358 | 7,587 | -229 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB07-EB08 | -30 | -215 | 185 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB08-EB09 | 2 | 15 | -13 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空 ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 螺纹钢：板块行情共振，偏弱震荡 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,248 3,397 | -68 -80 | -2.05 -2.30 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 3,414,713 | 1,935,881 | -62,771 | | | HC2510 | 1,255,676 | 1,481,167 | -73,396 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | （元/吨） 前日价格 | （元/吨） 涨跌 | | | 上海 | 3390 | 3430 | -40 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3430 | 3490 | -60 | | | 北京 | 3300 | 3360 | -60 | | 现货价格 | 广州 | 3440 | 3490 | -50 | | | 上海 | 3440 | 3500 | -60 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions the negative growth forecast of the EU solar market in 2025, which poses risks to the 2030 target [3][4]. - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2509's closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan from T - 1; PS2509's closing price was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan from T - 1 [3]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium/discount varied against different benchmarks, and polysilicon's spot premium/discount (against N - type re - investment) was - 4,525 yuan [3]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 46,500 yuan/ton [3]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan were negative, and polysilicon enterprise profit was - 17.9 yuan/kg [3]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory was 53.5 million tons, and polysilicon's factory inventory was 24.3 million tons [3]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, and electrodes showed different changes [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The EU solar market is expected to have a - 1.4% annual growth rate in 2025, with an expected new solar installation of 64.2 GW, lower than 2024. The 2030 target may not be achieved, with an expected total solar PV installation of 723 GW, lower than the required 750 GW [4][5]. 3.3 Trend Strength - Industrial silicon's trend strength is 0 (neutral), and polysilicon's trend strength is 1 (slightly bullish) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on peanut fundamentals, tracking prices, trading volumes, and trends, and notes that attention should be paid to weather in peanut - producing areas [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Prices of various peanut varieties decreased, with辽宁308通货 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-200),河南白沙通货 at 8,760 yuan/ton (-200),兴城小日本 at 8,440 yuan/ton (-260), and苏丹精米 at 8,600 yuan/ton (-100) [1]. - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,142 yuan/ton (0.05% daily increase), and PK511 at 8,034 yuan/ton (0.48% daily increase) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PK510 trading volume was 119,194 hands (increase of 91,625 hands), open interest was 101,662 hands (increase of 4,603 hands); PK511 trading volume was 44,296 hands (increase of 29,110 hands), open interest was 69,643 hands (decrease of 484 hands); peanut full - market trading volume was 170,315 hands (increase of 125,036 hands), open interest was 186,421 hands (increase of 5,422 hands) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Peanut full - market warehouse receipts were 0 hands with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**:辽宁308通货基差 was 458 yuan/ton,河南白沙通货基差 was 618 yuan/ton,兴城小日本基差 was 298 yuan/ton,苏丹精米基差 was 458 yuan/ton, and 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 108 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Focus - In Henan, remaining stocks are almost exhausted, trading is mainly from inventory, inquiries are few, and prices are determined by quality. Good - quality peanuts have firm prices, with prices in Baisha producing areas slightly weakening and those in large - peanut producing areas stable [2]. - In Jilin, 308 common rice is around 4.3 - 4.4. Raw material trading is ending, with sporadic supplies, normal inquiries, slightly weakening peanut prices, and stable peanut - fruit prices [2]. - In Liaoning, grass - roots raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from inventory. Quality varies greatly, prices are determined by quality, inquiries are few, and prices in most areas are slightly weakening [2]. - In Shandong, raw material procurement has ended, trading is mainly from cold - storage stocks. Most areas have little remaining inventory, and trading is in the final stage [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

2025 年 07 月 29 日 短纤：情绪回落，偏弱震荡波动放大 瓶片：情绪回落，偏弱震荡波动放大 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2508 | 6458 | ୧୧୨୪ | -140 | PF08-09 | -24 | -8 | -16 | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6482 | ୧୧୦୧ | -124 | PF09-10 | -50 | 36 | -86 | | | 短纤2510 | 6532 | 6570 | -38 | PF其差 | 128 | 54 | 74 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.610 | 6.660 | -50 | | | 短纤成 ...

(欧线):10空单、10-12反 2025 年 7月 29 日 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021502 郑玉洁 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2508 | 2. 183. 2 | -0. 89% | 2. 525 | 7. 369 | -989 | 0. 34 | 0. 28 | | | EC2510 | 1.502.8 | -1.84% | 56. 014 | 50. 694 | 717 | 1.10 | 0. 86 | | | EC2512 | 1.737.8 | 0. 41% | 6. 830 | 8.599 | 79 | 0.79 | 0.52 | | | | 本期 | | 2025/7/28 | | ...

2025 年 7 月 29 日 沥青：原油偏强，裂解续弱 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,601 | -1.10% | 3,644 | 1.19% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,569 | -1.27% | 3,617 | 1.34% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 1,787 | 1,396 | 2,626 | (944) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 224,891 | 18,997 | 162,463 | (8,904) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82180 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support the cotton futures price. The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the inventory of cotton spinning enterprises has slightly decreased, but the orders for grey cloth are still weak, and the ICE cotton futures are fluctuating narrowly with a slight decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 14,075 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and the night - session closed at 14,150 yuan/ton with a 0.53% increase; CY2509 closed at 20,235 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.66% decline, and the night - session closed at 20,280 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.3 cents/pound with a 0.10% increase. The trading volume of CF2509 was 666,728 lots, an increase of 230,035 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 866,475 lots, a decrease of 21,810 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 14,576 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 9,411 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,226, a decrease of 39, and the effective forecast was 350, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 91, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 96 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.58% compared with the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.59%. The price in Shandong was 15,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan or 0.52%; the price in Hebei was 15,589 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.33%. The 3128B index was 15,609 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan or 0.39%. The international cotton index M was 75.80 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.19%, and the arrival price was 22,092 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan or 0.07% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot trading has slightly improved, the delivery of old cotton is relatively good, and the basis quotes of some cotton enterprises have slightly decreased, but the overall basis is still stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 is CF09 + 1300 - 1600, and the Corps' goods are quoted at 1600 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with downstream rigid - demand procurement as the main mode, and traders have a small amount of restocking. The inventory of spinning enterprises has slightly decreased. The orders for grey cloth are still weak, mainly small rigid - demand orders. Traditionally, market sampling orders will appear around the end of July and early August, but textile mills are more cautious this year, so they mainly purchase small orders of cotton yarn [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly yesterday, and the market still lacks fundamental guidance. The US Department of Agriculture's weekly crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US cotton slightly decreased. As of the week of July 27, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% in the previous week and 49% in the same period last year [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].