1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, with Trump threatening Iran and being reported to have listened to military strike plans. This could lead to increased competition for strategic resources [8][20]. - The global economic situation shows mixed signals. For example, the US 12 - month non - farm payrolls increase was less than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased, and the consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [17][19]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, while others are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have increased. ETF holdings have decreased slightly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. - Silver: It is approaching a new high. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have risen significantly. The trend strength is - 1 [13][17]. 3.1.2 Copper - The demand expectation has strengthened, and the price has risen. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][21]. 3.1.3 Zinc - It is running strongly. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have shown a positive trend, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][24]. 3.1.4 Lead - The overseas inventory has decreased, supporting the price. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have increased. The trend strength is 0 [13][27]. 3.1.5 Tin - It is oscillating and strengthening. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have risen, and the inventory has decreased. The trend strength is 1 [13][30]. 3.1.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The center of gravity has significantly increased. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have risen, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. - Alumina: Driven by capital risk preference. The price of alumina futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [13][33]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It follows the price of aluminum. The price trend is related to the aluminum market. The trend strength is 1 [13][33]. 3.1.7 Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, and it is oscillating within a range. The price trend is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. - Palladium: It rose sharply and then fell back. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs. The trend strength is 0 [13][35]. 3.1.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it is running with wide - range oscillations. The price of nickel futures has shown significant fluctuations. The trend strength is 0 [13][39]. - Stainless Steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is gambling on Indonesian policies. The price trend is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [13][40]. 3.2 Energy - related Commodities 3.2.1 Crude Oil Although not the main focus, geopolitical tensions may affect the supply and price of crude oil, which in turn impacts related products [72]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The short - term price has weakened significantly, but there is still support below. The price and trading volume of fuel oil futures have changed. The trend strength is 0 [134]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price continued to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to rebound. The trend strength is 0 [134]. 3.3 Chemical Products 3.3.1 PX, PTA, and MEG - PX: It is in a unilateral high - level oscillating market. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences. The price of PX futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation is changing. The trend strength is 1 [70][74]. - PTA: The cost support is relatively strong. The price of PTA futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand outlook is weakening. The trend strength is 1 [70][75]. - MEG: The trend is strong. The price of MEG futures has increased, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 1 [70][76]. 3.3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is oscillating in a wide range. The price of rubber futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [77][78]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating at a high level. The price of synthetic rubber futures has changed, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [83][85]. 3.3.3 LLDPE and PP - LLDPE: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The price of LLDPE futures has risen slightly, and the market situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [86][88]. - PP: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a high expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The price of PP futures has risen slightly, and the supply - demand situation is under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [90][91]. 3.3.4 Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: It is oscillating weakly. The price of caustic soda futures is facing downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. The trend strength is - 1 [92][94]. - PVC: It is oscillating weakly. The price of PVC futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The trend strength is - 1 [131][132]. 3.3.5 Methanol and Urea - Methanol: It is expected to be strong in the short term. The price of methanol futures has risen, and the market is affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors. The trend strength is 0 [106][110]. - Urea: It is experiencing a short - term correction and is expected to be strong in the medium term. The price of urea futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is improving. The trend strength is 0 [112][114]. 3.3.6 Styrene and Pure Benzene - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. The price of styrene futures has increased slightly, and the market valuation is high. The trend strength is 0 [115][116]. - Pure Benzene: It is oscillating mainly in the short term. The price of pure benzene futures has increased, and the inventory situation has changed. The trend strength is 0 [159][161]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm Oil: Attention should be paid to the implementation of negative news in the MPOB report. The price of palm oil futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. - Soybean Oil: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the price is mainly in a range. The price of soybean oil futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [163][164]. 3.4.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean Meal: It is oscillating, waiting for the USDA report. The price of soybean meal futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by US soybean production expectations. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. - Soybean: It is adjusting and oscillating. The price of soybean futures has shown a certain degree of decline, and the market is affected by multiple factors. The trend strength is 0 [169][171]. 3.4.3 Corn - Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price of corn futures has risen slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [172][174]. 3.4.4 Sugar - It is in a narrow - range consolidation. The price of sugar futures has shown a certain trend, and the supply - demand situation is complex. The trend strength is 0 [176][178]. 3.4.5 Cotton - It is waiting for the end of the adjustment. The price of cotton futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and external factors. The trend strength is 0 [181][182]. 3.4.6 Eggs - The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened. The price of egg futures has changed, and the market is affected by supply - demand and feed prices. The trend strength is 0 [185][186]. 3.4.7 Hogs - There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is expected to increase. The price of hog futures has shown a certain trend, and the market is affected by supply - demand and consumption factors. The trend strength is - 1 [188][189]. 3.4.8 Peanuts - It is oscillating. The price of peanut futures has declined, and the market is affected by supply - demand and spot prices. The trend strength is 0 [192][194]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Alumina - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the systematic risk - preference rotation in the non - ferrous sector is still supporting the AO market. It is recommended to find selling points at high prices [9][10]. 3.5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may oscillate strongly in the short term. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract. The supply - demand situation of shipping capacity is changing, and the market is affected by export policies [136][146]. 3.5.3 Short - fiber and Bottle - grade PET - They are oscillating strongly. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - grade PET futures have risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and raw material prices. The trend strength is 0 [151][152]. 3.5.4 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to go short at high prices. The price of offset printing paper futures has declined slightly, and the market is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The trend strength is - 1 [154][155]. 3.5.5 Soda Ash - The spot market has changed little. The price of soda ash futures has declined, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable. The trend strength is 0 [119][120]. 3.5.6 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The short - term supply is tight. Attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces. The price of LPG futures has risen, and the market is affected by supply - demand and policy factors. The trend strength is 0 [122][123]. - Propylene: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. The price of propylene futures has risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The trend strength is 0 [123][128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Re - testing new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Demand expectations are strengthening, leading to price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Operating in a relatively strong manner [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][14]. - Tin: Oscillating and strengthening [2][16]. - Aluminum: The price center has significantly moved up; Alumina is driven by capital risk preference; Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price [2][20]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are continuously flowing out, with range - bound oscillations [2][22]. - Palladium: After surging, it declined. Attention should be paid to the price transmission related to tariffs [2][22]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillations [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][27]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,006.48 with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 1008.54 with a 0.80% increase. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18757 with a 1.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 19438.00 with a 6.19% increase [4]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,653 kg (unchanged), and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3 to 1,064.56. The inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 17385 kg to 620,262 kg, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 93 to 16,308.48 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have listened to military strike plans [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,410 with a 0.19% increase, and the night - session closing price was 102220 with a 0.80% increase. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading price increased by 2.07% to 12,966 [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2,531 tons to 111,216 tons, and the London Copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons. The spread between Shanghai copper spot and LME cash decreased by 133 to - 977 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high. The Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter produced its first batch of anode copper, with an expected output of 380,000 - 420,000 tons of mineral copper in 2026 [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23970 with a - 0.02% change, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading price increased by 0.57% to 3149 [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 599 tons to 38874 tons, and the London Zinc inventory decreased by 550 tons to 107450 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread increased by 7.5 to - 36.5 [11]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and Canada was worried about US economic actions [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17395 with a 0.35% increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading price increased by 1.49% to 2046.5 [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Lead inventory increased by 2321 tons to 16188 tons, and the London Lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons to 222725 tons. The LME CASH - 3M spread decreased by 2.55 to - 44.05 [14]. - **News**: The US January consumer confidence reached a four - month high, and December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 352,540 with a 0.83% increase, and the night - session closing price was 359,980 with a 3.15% increase. The London Tin 3M electronic - trading price increased by 4.64% to 45,700 [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 359 tons to 6,429 tons. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 5,300 to 349,750 [17]. - **News**: Trump threatened Iran, and the UK considered deploying troops in Greenland [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24330, and the night - session closing price was 24465. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2843, and the night - session closing price was 2835 [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons to 49.78 million tons. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged at 71.80 million tons [20]. - **News**: There was a debate about AI, and countries were hoarding strategic materials [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Platinum 2606 futures was 599.80 with a 4.31% increase, and the Palladium 2606 futures price increased by 8.32% to 499.05 [22]. - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: The NYMEX Platinum inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 260 ounces to 624,755 ounces. The Platinum ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) decreased by 14,775 ounces to 3,284,543 ounces [22]. - **News**: There were various geopolitical events such as the situation in Thailand, Israel - Gaza, and the UK's consideration of Greenland deployment [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,860 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, and the Chinese government imposed export license management on some steel products [27][28].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on January 12, 2026, covering multiple black - series commodities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - For iron ore, the valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing up [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][7] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price fluctuates widely; for silicomanganese, overseas miners' quotes have increased, and the futures price also fluctuates widely [2][11] - For coke and coking coal, events are fermenting, and prices are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15] - For logs, prices fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the futures contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18%. Imported ore prices generally increased slightly, and the difference between some varieties changed. The trend strength is 0 [4] - **News**: In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.820,000 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.000,000 tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.080,000 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.830,000 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.480,000 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.430,000 tons. The trend strength of both is 0 [8][9] - **News**: In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased; in mid - December 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased; the government implemented export license management for some steel products; from January to October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The trend strength of both is 0 [11] - **News**: On January 9, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions changed; overseas miners raised their quotes for February 2026; as of January 9, the total manganese ore inventory decreased [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the coking coal JM2605 contract was 1195.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the closing price of the coke J2605 contract was 1748 yuan/ton, down 1.0%. The trend strength of both is 0 [15] - **News**: On January 9, the metallurgical coal index changed; the daily output of coking coal mines increased, with new production resumptions and a small number of new shutdowns [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The prices of most log spot products remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of enterprises at the end of 2025 [22]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including economic data from China and the US, agricultural reports, and central bank publications [2][3]. - It also presents expected values for various economic indicators and analyzes how different data outcomes might affect different types of futures prices [3][8]. Key Events and Data Releases January 12 - China's central bank will release December 2025 financial statistics, with expected social financing scale increment of 1950 billion yuan, social financing scale stock growth of 8.2%, new RMB loans of 750 billion yuan, and M2 growth of 7.9% [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will publish the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products [4]. January 13 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly crop supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [5][6]. - The US Labor Department will announce the December 2025 CPI, with expected unadjusted CPI annual rate of 2.7%, unadjusted core CPI annual rate of 2.7%, core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment [8]. - The US Commerce Department will disclose the October 2025 new home sales, with an expected annualized total of 705,000 units [9]. January 14 - The US Energy Information Administration will issue the monthly short - term energy outlook report [10]. - China will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 annual and December import - export situation, with expected December export growth of 2.9% and import growth of 0.8% in US dollars [12]. - OPEC will publish the monthly crude oil market report [13]. - The US Commerce Department will announce December 2025 retail sales, with expected monthly rates of 0.4% for retail sales and core retail sales [14]. - The US Labor Department will release December 2025 PPI, with expected monthly rate of 0.2% and annual rate of 2.6% [15]. - The US National Association of Realtors will disclose December 2025 existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4.22 million units [16]. - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 9, with the previous value being a decrease of 3.832 million barrels [17]. January 15 - The Federal Reserve will publish the economic situation Beige Book [18]. - The US Labor Department will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, with an expected value of 210,000 [19]. January 16 - The Federal Reserve will release December 2025 industrial output, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% [20].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铂、锡、焦煤、PTA 期货将震 荡偏强 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 PVC 期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 约 | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震荡 | 4786 和 | 4800 点 | 4743 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The market is characterized by a game between industrial and secondary funds, with a wide - range volatile movement [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Tariff adjustments are beneficial to short - term demand, and the market is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut situation [2]. - Polysilicon: The market will move within a range [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials of related products in the industrial chain, are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,860 [5]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, plan to cut nickel ore production, and some mines face potential fines [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on lithium carbonate futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials in the industrial chain, are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 138,700 [10]. - **News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has increased, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine have arrived at Yangpu Port, and there are changes in the export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and inventory levels, are shown. For example, the closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,715, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 51,300 [13]. - **News**: Japan's TOYO has signed a supply agreement with a US polysilicon manufacturer, and there are details about the polysilicon production capacity in the US [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

2026年01月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空落地情况 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡，等待凌晨USDA报告 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：等待调整结束20260112 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：需求存负反馈，供应预期增量 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空落地情况 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,682 | 0.81% | ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the stock market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 and 4100 points, and the daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains, while the banking sector was the only one to decline, and the transportation and petroleum and petrochemical sectors had relatively small gains [1]. - The upward logic of the market since the beginning of the year is driven by the typical spring rally, which is mainly affected by policies, liquidity, and risk appetite in the environment of a vacuum in the first - quarter economic data and financial reports. Positive policy expectations, the expected return of funds to the stock market at the beginning of the new year, the absence of obvious overseas risks, and continuous positive news in industries and themes have created a positive feedback loop of capital inflow - price increase - further capital inflow [1]. - The sustainability of the spring rally depends on core drivers such as policies, liquidity, and risk appetite. Attention should be paid to factors like the determination of the new Fed chairman, the US interest - rate cut space this year, possible policy cooling measures in China after breaking through two integer thresholds, and the overall local policy direction after the local two sessions. In the short term, sentiment remains positive, and relevant variables should be dynamically tracked. In the longer term, the upward slope is expected to slow down as positive factors are gradually realized [2]. - Key factors to watch include December economic data, 2025 GDP data, local two sessions, the new Fed chairman, and this year's easing space [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 95 points/119 points, 78 points/47 points, 202 points/283 points, and 245 points/327 points respectively [4]. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges of the IF2601 main contract of IF are 4622 - 4860 points; the IH2601 main contract of IH, 3055 - 3196 points; the IC2601 main contract of IC, 7846 - 8371 points; and the IM2601 main contract of IM, 7875 - 8405 points [4]. Cross - variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have also shown varying degrees of increase, such as the Shenzhen Component Index up 35.6%, and the ChiNext Index up 55.4% [10][12]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and pharmaceutical industries had relatively large increases, while the telecommunications industry declined. In the CSI 500 index, the telecommunications and industrial industries had significant gains [14]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of the Wind All - A index are presented in the report, reflecting the market's trading activity [14]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude [16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [16]. - The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of main contracts [16]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 31, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.54 times, 14.16 times, 11.78 times, 33.94 times, and 46.78 times respectively [17][20]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the trends of margin trading balance, new - established equity - biased funds, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization [23]. - Last week, the capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the central bank conducted net repurchase after the new year [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is a potentially strong and volatile trend. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract as appropriate [1][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on products such as photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which will have a marginal positive impact on the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In the past week, there were changes in shipping schedules such as Evergreen's CES route and PA Alliance's FE4 route [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 11 blank sailings, with the weekly average capacity revised down to 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. The March schedule includes 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [4]. - After the Chinese New Year in 2026, the capacity growth rate is much higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [5]. 3.2 Valuation - The FAK average for weeks 2 - 3 falls within the range of $2,700 - 2,760/FEU. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for different weeks [7][19]. - A neutral - to - pessimistic valuation scenario for the 2602 contract is presented, with the contract's valuation potentially falling in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points. The 2604 contract cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April [8]. 3.3 Strategy - For the 2602 and 2604 contracts, consider reducing long and short positions respectively to avoid uncertainties. For the 2610 contract, maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, consider a 4 - 10 calendar spread to deal with the impact of the "rush - to - export" event [9]. 3.4 Demand Side - In January, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good, but the FAK segment was average. The peak cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines [6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the shipping demand from January to March but have a negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3.5 Supply Side - The current weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week. The capacity in February and March has different changes, with the Spring Festival blank sailings mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [4]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the capacity growth rate is significantly higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure [49]. - In the past three months, there have been new ship deliveries among the top ten shipping companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the next three months [77][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Employment trend in the US is weakening but may be emerging from the worst period. The non - farm payroll increase in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate and wage growth were better than expected. Some employment indicators in December showed a rebound [11][13]. - The expected Q1环比 rebound in the US economy is being realized. The US economic surprise index has rebounded recently, and the retail sales data in January is expected to show growth [14][16]. - Inflation expectations have significantly rebounded. Attention should be paid to the CPI data reading. The release of December CPI data is affected by government shutdown, and the geopolitical situation in Iran has affected oil prices and inflation expectations [17][19]. - Attention should be paid to the tariff policy framework changes brought by the IEEPA ruling. If the US Supreme Court rules IEEPA unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund and cause short - term tariff policy chaos [20][23]. - In FICC precious metals, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, and silver should be wary of fluctuations. Geopolitical risks have increased the upward drive of gold, while the conditions for silver to continue to rise are becoming more demanding [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income Weekly Performance** - Various US Treasury yields had different weekly changes. For example, the 3 - month US Treasury yield was 3.59% with a - 2.06bp change, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53% with a 5.88bp change. Major developed country government bond yields also changed, such as the 10 - year German bond yield at 2.86% with a - 3.7bp change [41][42]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spread Tracking** - The US Treasury yield curve showed changes over 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month periods, and the long - short spread of US Treasury yields was also tracked [49]. - **Relative Strength of Different - Rated Credit Bonds and Eurozone Bond Yields** - The relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds was analyzed, along with the credit spreads between different - rated bonds [58][60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators** - The issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasury bonds, and related subscription ratios were presented [71][73]. 2. Exchange Rate Market - **Global Major Exchange Rates Weekly Performance** - The US dollar index, euro, yen, and other major exchange rates had different weekly changes. For example, the US dollar index had a 0.72% change to 99.1330, and the euro had a - 0.70% change to 1.1637 [76][78]. - **Major Country Treasury Yield Spreads with US Treasuries** - The spreads between 10 - year US Treasuries and G7 countries' average yields, as well as the spreads between US and German 2 - year Treasury yields, were shown [79][80]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework** - China's "interest rate corridor" is formed with the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market as the "policy rate", SLF as the top, and the excess reserve ratio as the bottom. Traditional policy tools rely on MLF as the policy - guiding rate [88]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of RMB Exchange Rate** - Monthly indicators include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and high - frequency indicators include the spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury yields [93][101]. 3. Commodities - **Global Major Commodities Weekly Performance** - Various commodities such as Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, and Brent crude oil had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold had a 2.96% change, and Brent crude oil had a 4.09% change [119][121]. - **Commodity Ratios and Industry Chain Relative Strength** - Ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and their relationships with inflation expectations and US Treasury yield spreads were analyzed [123][124]. - **Commodity Price Mapping in Equity and Bond Markets** - The relative strength of commodities with global equity and bond indices, and the rolling correlation between upstream commodities and downstream equity cycle sectors were studied [131][134]. - **Macro Commodity High - Frequency Data** - Data such as OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories were presented [141][143]. 4. Overseas Equity - **Global Major Indices and US Stock Industry Weekly Performance** - Global major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and their weekly changes were reported. In the US stock market, different sectors of the S&P index also had different weekly performances [146][150]. - **Weekly US Stock Style Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking** - Different US stock style sectors such as US large - cap growth and US small - cap value had different weekly changes. Valuations and earnings (EPS) of major indices were also analyzed [153][157]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices** - The quarterly EPS YoY trends of indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei 225 were shown [164][165]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators** - Indicators such as the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio were presented [171][172]. 5. Cryptocurrency - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets** - The relationships between Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and the US dollar, as well as the performance of major Bitcoin ETFs and their fund flows were studied [184][187]. 6. BOJ Post - YCC Era - **Yen Carry Trade System Market High - Frequency Data Tracking** - Data such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging costs, and yen net positions of CFTC CME yen hedge funds and asset management institutions were presented [192][194]. 7. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum** - Real - time GDP models, GDP components, and sector economic surprise indices of the US, as well as economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China were presented [202][206]. - **Financial Conditions** - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its weekly changes, G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP, and US and euro - area financial condition indices were analyzed [210][213]. - **Fiscal Policy** - US federal government fiscal expenditures and revenues, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP were studied [218][223]. - **Employment Market** - US employment market indicators such as non - farm payroll monthly increases, job vacancies, and weekly unemployment claims were tracked [227][228]. - **Inflation Indicators** - US inflation data was split, and trends of headline and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations, were analyzed [235][240]. - **Consumption Demand** - US consumption data such as retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt were studied [244][259]. - **Cycle Positioning** - Industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as US wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventory and inventory - to - sales ratios were analyzed [267][277]. - **Credit Cycle** - US credit surveys, S&P index valuations, and high - yield corporate credit spreads were presented [280][282]. - **Transportation and Logistics** - Logistics data between China and the US, Asia and the US, Europe and the US, as well as aviation, supply - chain, and shipping data were studied [284][297]. - **Real Estate Market** - US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate data such as indices, loan amounts, and delinquency rates were presented [302][308]. - **Eurozone** - Eurozone macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength data such as deficit rates, inflation, and economic surprise indices were analyzed [311][331].