2025年09月23日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 观点与策略 | 黄金：继续创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡调整 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏明显驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：小幅调整 | 12 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：供需双增，区间震荡延续 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪 | 18 | | 多晶硅：仓单去化 | 18 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：需求表现平淡，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：硅系板块扰动，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：硅系板块扰动，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs; silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driving force, and its price will fluctuate [2][10]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][13]. - Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will undergo a slight adjustment; alumina will face downward pressure; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel prices will oscillate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations; stainless - steel prices will fluctuate as a result of the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals 3.1.1 Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed increases, with the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closing at 843.00 yuan, up 1.87%, and the night - trading closing price at 850.98 yuan, up 1.46%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and ETF holdings and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [8]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Fundamentals**: Silver prices also rose, with the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closing at 10283 yuan, up 3.50%, and the night - trading closing price at 10348.00 yuan, up 1.77%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 80160 yuan, up 0.39%, and the night - trading closing price was 80100 yuan, down 0.07%. The trading volume and positions increased, and inventories decreased. Spot and futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Industry News**: In August 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased by 8.17% month - on - month but increased by 11.14% year - on - year. September's copper production is expected to decline due to anode copper supply shortages and routine maintenance [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22090 yuan, up 0.23%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [13]. - **Industry News**: China's central bank's monetary policy is currently supportive and moderately loose, and the risk level of local government financing platform debts has significantly converged [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17165 yuan, down 0.09%. The trading volume decreased, and positions increased. Inventories showed different trends, with Shanghai's inventory decreasing and LME's increasing [16]. - **Industry News**: China aims to promote stable and healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the central bank's monetary policy is supportive and moderately loose [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 272510 yuan, up 1.39%, and the night - trading closing price was 270610 yuan, down 0.28%. Trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads all had corresponding changes [20]. - **Industry News**: There were various macro - level news, including Sino - US economic and trade relations, central bank policies, and international political and economic situations [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20745 yuan, with changes in trading volume, positions, and spreads. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2934 yuan, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20340 yuan. Inventories, prices, and spreads of each had corresponding changes [25]. - **Industry News**: There were differences in views on interest rate cuts among Fed officials [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum's trend intensity is 0 (neutral), alumina's is - 1 (slightly bearish), and cast aluminum alloy's is 0 (neutral) [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 121400 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12910 yuan. Various indicators such as trading volume, positions, prices, and spreads in the industrial chain had corresponding changes [28]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses [28][29][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral view [33].

【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | and the comments of | | --- | | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏 弱 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （01合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,660 | 1,661 | - 1 1077 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,658 | 1,666 | - 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 113,802 | 112,725 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 307,396 | 297,254 | 10142 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,535 | 7,810 | -275 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 377,421 | 375,627 ...

2025年09月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：短期有反弹，中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：涨开工厂库小累，化社库降价促销 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱，中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：后期低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实但预期不悲观 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡承压，下方空间收窄 | 17 | | 尿素：周内走势关注现货节前收单，趋势仍偏弱 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：短期窄幅震荡 | 23 | | 丙烯：短期高位偏弱 | 23 | | PVC：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：夜盘维持弱势，短期调整走势 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 23 日 铝：小幅调整 氧化铝：承压下行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 期货研究 【综合快讯】 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20745 | -50 | -275 | 30 | 720 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20715 | l | ー | l | l | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2655 | -21 | -50 | 31 | 172 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 118717 | 11654 | -14512 | -24832 | 20728 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 236067 | -9800 | 53626 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are subject to disturbances in the silicon - based sector and are in a weak and volatile state [1]. - The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2511 and SiFe2601 are 5648 and 5644 respectively, down 88 and 92 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 281,849 and 83,330, and the open interests are 200,009 and 105,097. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2511 and MnSi2601 are 5850 and 5870 respectively, down 80 and 94. The trading volumes are 172,673 and 335,892, and the open interests are 103,885 and 339,805 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 710 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 11 futures spread of silicon iron is - 298 yuan/ton, up 88; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese silicon is - 140 yuan/ton, up 80. The SiFe2511 - SiFe2601 spread is 4 yuan/ton, up 4; the MnSi2511 - MnSi2601 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 4. The MnSi2511 - SiFe2511 spread is 202 yuan/ton, up 8; the MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 spread is 226 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 22, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions is 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 is 5900 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 is 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trade Data**: In August 2025, China's silicon manganese exports were 4592.948 tons, a 93.3% increase from July. The total exports from January to August were 21037.805 tons. The imports in August were 2373.259 tons, similar to July, and the total imports from January to August were 9875.399 tons. The top ten export destinations of Chinese silicon iron in August 2025 include Japan (7862 tons), South Korea (7808 tons), etc. [1][3]. - **Procurement News**: Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron procurement price at 5800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 800 tons [4].

2025 年 9 月 23 日 碳酸锂：供需双增，区间震荡延续 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,420 | -540 | 740 | -1,380 | -9,340 | 14,620 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 396,645 | 26,286 | -86,145 | -385,742 | -381,182 | 368,467 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 271,624 | -9,640 | -37,822 | -92,513 | -118,445 | 195,542 | | | 盘面 | 2601合约（收盘 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and inventory pressure needs to be released [1]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, causing US soybeans to fluctuate weakly [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures during the day session was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and 9,152 yuan/ton at night with a -2.22% decrease. For soybean oil futures, it was 8,366 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.46% increase and 8,172 yuan/ton at night with a -2.32% decrease. Rapeseed oil futures closed at 10,143 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.74% increase and 10,073 yuan/ton at night with a -0.69% decrease. The Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD) closed at 4,442 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.41% increase and 4,369 ringgit/ton at night with a -1.67% decrease. The CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 49.63 cents/pound with a -1.96% decrease [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. For soybean oil futures, the trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. Rapeseed oil futures had a trading volume of 275,428 lots, a decrease of 36,699 lots, and an open interest of 366,477 lots, an increase of 14,048 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 90 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 344 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 3 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 783 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 994 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 206 yuan/ton, of soybean oil was 288 yuan/ton, and of rapeseed oil was 505 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia**: From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. Different institutions had different estimates of Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 20: ITS reported 1,010,032 tons, an increase from the previous month; AmSpec reported 941,984 tons, an 8.3% increase; SGS estimated 559,829 tons, a 16.1% decrease [3][4][5][6]. - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending September 21, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%. The harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12%. The defoliation rate was 61%. As of the week ending September 18, the US soybean export inspection volume was 484,116 tons, at the lower end of the market forecast. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year was 1,569,777 tons, higher than the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 0.9% of the expected total area, the same as the previous year. In the first three weeks of September, Brazil exported 4,719,426.05 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume 8.20% higher than that of September last year. The Brazilian Oilseed Processing Association plans to invest 59 billion reais (11.1 billion US dollars) in the next 12 months, which will increase the soybean crushing capacity by 8% (about 6 million tons per year) [7]. - **Argentina**: On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, soybean derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches 7 billion US dollars. In August, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 3,904,901 tons, with a soybean oil output of 759,356 tons and a soybean meal output of 2,830,752 tons [7][8]. - **Canada**: A canola oil transshipment facility in Canada, invested 150 million Canadian dollars (109 million US dollars) by DP World, has started full - scale operation, increasing the export capacity by 1 million tons per year [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and that of soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the sugar market, highlighting the need to monitor the impact of Super Typhoon "Hagasha" on sugar - cane growing areas. It also presents various data on the supply and demand of sugar in domestic and international markets, as well as changes in production, sales, and exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - The current price of raw sugar is 15.85 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.33. The mainstream spot price is 5850 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan year - on - year, and the futures main contract price is 5452 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year [1]. - The 15 spread is 20 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year, and the 59 spread is - 23 yuan per ton, unchanged year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 398 yuan per ton, down 51 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information indicates the need to pay attention to the impact of Super Typhoon "Hagasha" on sugar - producing areas. In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year, while exports decreased, with 374 tons exported in August, a 5% year - on - year reduction, and 359 tons in July, also a 5% year - on - year reduction [1]. - Conab lowered the forecast for Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons from the previous 45.9 million tons. China imported 830,000 tons of sugar in August, an increase of 60,000 tons [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that in the 24/25 season, China's sugar production will be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sold 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of August, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 4.08 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons [2]. - In the 25/26 season, the market anticipates a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. 3.4 International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season [3]. - As of September 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 4.8 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 26.76 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the cumulative MIX at 52.76%, an increase of 3.67 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, up from 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals, news, and trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon, providing data on prices, volumes, inventories, and other indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Industrial silicon Si2511: The closing price was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 355 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 586,687 lots, up 76,381 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 285,490 lots, down 25,607 lots from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon PS2511: The closing price was 50,990 yuan/ton, down 1,710 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 253,135 lots, down 76,477 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 123,917 lots, up 8,068 lots from T - 1 [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against East China Si5530 was +445 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against East China Si4210 was -105 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from T - 1; against Xinjiang 99 silicon was -105 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The spot premium against N - type re - investment material was -1105 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.3 Price - Industrial silicon: Xinjiang 99 silicon was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 was 9950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: N - type re - investment material was 52600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was -2366 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1; in Yunnan (new standard 553) was -3311 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from T - 1 [1] - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.3 tons, the enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) was 17.5 tons, and the industry inventory was 71.8 tons [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 21.9 tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Cost - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5; in Yunnan was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from T - 5 [1] - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In August, China's exports of photovoltaic cells not installed in modules or assembled into blocks were about 143477 million, a month - on - month increase of 37767.7 million (35.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 75696.1 million (111.7%) [1][3] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was 1. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]