Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on January 12, 2026, covering multiple black - series commodities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - For iron ore, the valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing up [2][4] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to compress [2][7] - For ferrosilicon, market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price fluctuates widely; for silicomanganese, overseas miners' quotes have increased, and the futures price also fluctuates widely [2][11] - For coke and coking coal, events are fermenting, and prices are oscillating at high levels [2][14][15] - For logs, prices fluctuate repeatedly [2][19] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the futures contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.18%. Imported ore prices generally increased slightly, and the difference between some varieties changed. The trend strength is 0 [4] - **News**: In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: According to the weekly data on January 8, rebar production increased by 2.820,000 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.000,000 tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.080,000 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.830,000 tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.480,000 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.430,000 tons. The trend strength of both is 0 [8][9] - **News**: In late December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased; in mid - December 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased; the government implemented export license management for some steel products; from January to October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [8][9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices and trading volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts changed. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The trend strength of both is 0 [11] - **News**: On January 9, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions changed; overseas miners raised their quotes for February 2026; as of January 9, the total manganese ore inventory decreased [12][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the coking coal JM2605 contract was 1195.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the closing price of the coke J2605 contract was 1748 yuan/ton, down 1.0%. The trend strength of both is 0 [15] - **News**: On January 9, the metallurgical coal index changed; the daily output of coking coal mines increased, with new production resumptions and a small number of new shutdowns [15] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts changed. The prices of most log spot products remained stable. The trend strength is 0 [20] - **News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of enterprises at the end of 2025 [22]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including economic data from China and the US, agricultural reports, and central bank publications [2][3]. - It also presents expected values for various economic indicators and analyzes how different data outcomes might affect different types of futures prices [3][8]. Key Events and Data Releases January 12 - China's central bank will release December 2025 financial statistics, with expected social financing scale increment of 1950 billion yuan, social financing scale stock growth of 8.2%, new RMB loans of 750 billion yuan, and M2 growth of 7.9% [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will publish the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products [4]. January 13 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly crop supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [5][6]. - The US Labor Department will announce the December 2025 CPI, with expected unadjusted CPI annual rate of 2.7%, unadjusted core CPI annual rate of 2.7%, core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment [8]. - The US Commerce Department will disclose the October 2025 new home sales, with an expected annualized total of 705,000 units [9]. January 14 - The US Energy Information Administration will issue the monthly short - term energy outlook report [10]. - China will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 annual and December import - export situation, with expected December export growth of 2.9% and import growth of 0.8% in US dollars [12]. - OPEC will publish the monthly crude oil market report [13]. - The US Commerce Department will announce December 2025 retail sales, with expected monthly rates of 0.4% for retail sales and core retail sales [14]. - The US Labor Department will release December 2025 PPI, with expected monthly rate of 0.2% and annual rate of 2.6% [15]. - The US National Association of Realtors will disclose December 2025 existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4.22 million units [16]. - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 9, with the previous value being a decrease of 3.832 million barrels [17]. January 15 - The Federal Reserve will publish the economic situation Beige Book [18]. - The US Labor Department will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, with an expected value of 210,000 [19]. January 16 - The Federal Reserve will release December 2025 industrial output, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% [20].

2026 年 1 月 12 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铂、锡、焦煤、PTA 期货将震 荡偏强 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 PVC 期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | 支撑位 | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 约 | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震荡 | 4786 和 | 4800 点 | 4743 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The market is characterized by a game between industrial and secondary funds, with a wide - range volatile movement [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Tariff adjustments are beneficial to short - term demand, and the market is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut situation [2]. - Polysilicon: The market will move within a range [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials of related products in the industrial chain, are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,860 [5]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, plan to cut nickel ore production, and some mines face potential fines [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on lithium carbonate futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials in the industrial chain, are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 138,700 [10]. - **News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has increased, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine have arrived at Yangpu Port, and there are changes in the export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and inventory levels, are shown. For example, the closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,715, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 51,300 [13]. - **News**: Japan's TOYO has signed a supply agreement with a US polysilicon manufacturer, and there are details about the polysilicon production capacity in the US [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

2026年01月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空落地情况 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡，等待凌晨USDA报告 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：等待调整结束20260112 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：远月情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：需求存负反馈，供应预期增量 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空落地情况 豆油：美豆动能有限，单边区间为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,682 | 0.81% | ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the stock market continued its upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 and 4100 points, and the daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion. The comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains, while the banking sector was the only one to decline, and the transportation and petroleum and petrochemical sectors had relatively small gains [1]. - The upward logic of the market since the beginning of the year is driven by the typical spring rally, which is mainly affected by policies, liquidity, and risk appetite in the environment of a vacuum in the first - quarter economic data and financial reports. Positive policy expectations, the expected return of funds to the stock market at the beginning of the new year, the absence of obvious overseas risks, and continuous positive news in industries and themes have created a positive feedback loop of capital inflow - price increase - further capital inflow [1]. - The sustainability of the spring rally depends on core drivers such as policies, liquidity, and risk appetite. Attention should be paid to factors like the determination of the new Fed chairman, the US interest - rate cut space this year, possible policy cooling measures in China after breaking through two integer thresholds, and the overall local policy direction after the local two sessions. In the short term, sentiment remains positive, and relevant variables should be dynamically tracked. In the longer term, the upward slope is expected to slow down as positive factors are gradually realized [2]. - Key factors to watch include December economic data, 2025 GDP data, local two sessions, the new Fed chairman, and this year's easing space [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations Short - term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 95 points/119 points, 78 points/47 points, 202 points/283 points, and 245 points/327 points respectively [4]. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach. The core operating ranges of the IF2601 main contract of IF are 4622 - 4860 points; the IH2601 main contract of IH, 3055 - 3196 points; the IC2601 main contract of IC, 7846 - 8371 points; and the IM2601 main contract of IM, 7875 - 8405 points [4]. Cross - variety Strategy - Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, most global stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.82%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have also shown varying degrees of increase, such as the Shenzhen Component Index up 35.6%, and the ChiNext Index up 55.4% [10][12]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and pharmaceutical industries had relatively large increases, while the telecommunications industry declined. In the CSI 500 index, the telecommunications and industrial industries had significant gains [14]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of the Wind All - A index are presented in the report, reflecting the market's trading activity [14]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the main contract IC of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude [16]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures rebounded [16]. - The report shows the basis (futures - spot) trend of stock index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of main contracts [16]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 31, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.54 times, 14.16 times, 11.78 times, 33.94 times, and 46.78 times respectively [17][20]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The report shows the trends of margin trading balance, new - established equity - biased funds, and the ratio of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization [23]. - Last week, the capital interest rate first rose and then fell, and the central bank conducted net repurchase after the new year [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is a potentially strong and volatile trend. Consider reducing long positions in the 02 contract and short positions in the 04 contract as appropriate [1][4]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on products such as photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which will have a marginal positive impact on the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - The weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In the past week, there were changes in shipping schedules such as Evergreen's CES route and PA Alliance's FE4 route [4]. - The latest February shipping schedule includes 11 blank sailings, with the weekly average capacity revised down to 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. The March schedule includes 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [4]. - After the Chinese New Year in 2026, the capacity growth rate is much higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [5]. 3.2 Valuation - The FAK average for weeks 2 - 3 falls within the range of $2,700 - 2,760/FEU. Different shipping companies have different pricing strategies for different weeks [7][19]. - A neutral - to - pessimistic valuation scenario for the 2602 contract is presented, with the contract's valuation potentially falling in the range of 1,730 - 1,780 points. The 2604 contract cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April [8]. 3.3 Strategy - For the 2602 and 2604 contracts, consider reducing long and short positions respectively to avoid uncertainties. For the 2610 contract, maintain the strategy of shorting on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. In the short - term, consider a 4 - 10 calendar spread to deal with the impact of the "rush - to - export" event [9]. 3.4 Demand Side - In January, most shipping companies felt that the cargo volume of BCO/NVO was good, but the FAK segment was average. The peak cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines [6]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaics and batteries will lead to a rush - to - export situation in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the shipping demand from January to March but have a negative impact on the demand after April [6]. 3.5 Supply Side - The current weekly average capacity in January is 309,000 TEU/week. The capacity in February and March has different changes, with the Spring Festival blank sailings mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March [4]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the capacity growth rate is significantly higher than before and during the festival, indicating greater capacity pressure [49]. - In the past three months, there have been new ship deliveries among the top ten shipping companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the next three months [77][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Employment trend in the US is weakening but may be emerging from the worst period. The non - farm payroll increase in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate and wage growth were better than expected. Some employment indicators in December showed a rebound [11][13]. - The expected Q1环比 rebound in the US economy is being realized. The US economic surprise index has rebounded recently, and the retail sales data in January is expected to show growth [14][16]. - Inflation expectations have significantly rebounded. Attention should be paid to the CPI data reading. The release of December CPI data is affected by government shutdown, and the geopolitical situation in Iran has affected oil prices and inflation expectations [17][19]. - Attention should be paid to the tariff policy framework changes brought by the IEEPA ruling. If the US Supreme Court rules IEEPA unconstitutional, it may involve a $150 billion tariff refund and cause short - term tariff policy chaos [20][23]. - In FICC precious metals, the gold - silver ratio is returning. Gold has regained momentum, and silver should be wary of fluctuations. Geopolitical risks have increased the upward drive of gold, while the conditions for silver to continue to rise are becoming more demanding [24][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fixed Income - **Overseas Fixed Income Weekly Performance** - Various US Treasury yields had different weekly changes. For example, the 3 - month US Treasury yield was 3.59% with a - 2.06bp change, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.53% with a 5.88bp change. Major developed country government bond yields also changed, such as the 10 - year German bond yield at 2.86% with a - 3.7bp change [41][42]. - **US Treasury Yield Curve and Credit Spread Tracking** - The US Treasury yield curve showed changes over 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month periods, and the long - short spread of US Treasury yields was also tracked [49]. - **Relative Strength of Different - Rated Credit Bonds and Eurozone Bond Yields** - The relative strength of high - yield and Aaa - rated credit bonds was analyzed, along with the credit spreads between different - rated bonds [58][60]. - **US Treasury Issuance and Primary - Secondary Market Supply - Demand Indicators** - The issuance of US short - term Treasury bills, medium - and long - term Treasury bonds, and related subscription ratios were presented [71][73]. 2. Exchange Rate Market - **Global Major Exchange Rates Weekly Performance** - The US dollar index, euro, yen, and other major exchange rates had different weekly changes. For example, the US dollar index had a 0.72% change to 99.1330, and the euro had a - 0.70% change to 1.1637 [76][78]. - **Major Country Treasury Yield Spreads with US Treasuries** - The spreads between 10 - year US Treasuries and G7 countries' average yields, as well as the spreads between US and German 2 - year Treasury yields, were shown [79][80]. - **Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Framework** - China's "interest rate corridor" is formed with the 7 - day reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market as the "policy rate", SLF as the top, and the excess reserve ratio as the bottom. Traditional policy tools rely on MLF as the policy - guiding rate [88]. - **Monthly and High - Frequency Indicators of RMB Exchange Rate** - Monthly indicators include China's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves, and high - frequency indicators include the spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 3 - month Treasury yields [93][101]. 3. Commodities - **Global Major Commodities Weekly Performance** - Various commodities such as Shanghai gold, Shanghai copper, and Brent crude oil had different weekly changes. For example, Shanghai gold had a 2.96% change, and Brent crude oil had a 4.09% change [119][121]. - **Commodity Ratios and Industry Chain Relative Strength** - Ratios such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, and their relationships with inflation expectations and US Treasury yield spreads were analyzed [123][124]. - **Commodity Price Mapping in Equity and Bond Markets** - The relative strength of commodities with global equity and bond indices, and the rolling correlation between upstream commodities and downstream equity cycle sectors were studied [131][134]. - **Macro Commodity High - Frequency Data** - Data such as OPEC+ crude oil production quotas, US energy department crude oil production, and global crude oil and copper inventories were presented [141][143]. 4. Overseas Equity - **Global Major Indices and US Stock Industry Weekly Performance** - Global major indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and their weekly changes were reported. In the US stock market, different sectors of the S&P index also had different weekly performances [146][150]. - **Weekly US Stock Style Performance, Valuation, and Earnings Tracking** - Different US stock style sectors such as US large - cap growth and US small - cap value had different weekly changes. Valuations and earnings (EPS) of major indices were also analyzed [153][157]. - **Earnings Cycle Positioning - Quarterly EPS YoY Trends of Major Indices** - The quarterly EPS YoY trends of indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nikkei 225 were shown [164][165]. - **Volatility and Risk Sentiment Indicators** - Indicators such as the Chicago S&P Volatility VIX index, ICE Bond Volatility MOVE index, and CBOE option PUT/CALL ratio were presented [171][172]. 5. Cryptocurrency - **BTC, ETH, and Related Derivative Assets** - The relationships between Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and the US dollar, as well as the performance of major Bitcoin ETFs and their fund flows were studied [184][187]. 6. BOJ Post - YCC Era - **Yen Carry Trade System Market High - Frequency Data Tracking** - Data such as the net amount of Japanese investors' purchases of overseas bonds and stocks, USDJPY 1 - year exchange - rate hedging costs, and yen net positions of CFTC CME yen hedge funds and asset management institutions were presented [192][194]. 7. Macro Data Hologram and Fundamental High - Frequency Data - **Real - Time Economic Momentum** - Real - time GDP models, GDP components, and sector economic surprise indices of the US, as well as economic surprise indices of the US, Europe, and China were presented [202][206]. - **Financial Conditions** - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its weekly changes, G4 central banks' balance sheets as a percentage of GDP, and US and euro - area financial condition indices were analyzed [210][213]. - **Fiscal Policy** - US federal government fiscal expenditures and revenues, government debt issuance, and the government deficit as a percentage of GDP were studied [218][223]. - **Employment Market** - US employment market indicators such as non - farm payroll monthly increases, job vacancies, and weekly unemployment claims were tracked [227][228]. - **Inflation Indicators** - US inflation data was split, and trends of headline and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations, were analyzed [235][240]. - **Consumption Demand** - US consumption data such as retail sales, consumer confidence, personal income, and household debt were studied [244][259]. - **Cycle Positioning** - Industrial, manufacturing, and inventory cycle indicators, as well as US wholesale, retail, and manufacturing inventory and inventory - to - sales ratios were analyzed [267][277]. - **Credit Cycle** - US credit surveys, S&P index valuations, and high - yield corporate credit spreads were presented [280][282]. - **Transportation and Logistics** - Logistics data between China and the US, Asia and the US, Europe and the US, as well as aviation, supply - chain, and shipping data were studied [284][297]. - **Real Estate Market** - US real estate equity market, credit spreads, and commercial real estate data such as indices, loan amounts, and delinquency rates were presented [302][308]. - **Eurozone** - Eurozone macro - overview, cycle positioning, and relative strength data such as deficit rates, inflation, and economic surprise indices were analyzed [311][331].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: January 11, 2026 - Report Author: Yang Honghan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience high-level oscillations in the short term [2][4] - The upward trend of butadiene is expected to slow down [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical's high-cis butadiene rubber plants continued to be shut down, while the load of individual butadiene rubber plants increased, with the capacity utilization rate reaching an absolute high level. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 31,800 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 2.55%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.15%, a month-on-month increase of 1.97 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene plants in the next cycle [5] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some enterprises were still in the shutdown and maintenance state during the "New Year's Day" holiday this week, gradually resuming work around the 4th. The production scheduling did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate to continue to decline. The shipment was slow during the cycle, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in a restorative manner in the next cycle, and the overall output will increase with the resumption of work and production of maintenance enterprises. Some enterprises continued to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase range [5] - In terms of alternative demand, the price difference between the main contracts of NR-BR is gradually narrowing, and the alternative demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year-on-year growth rate [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%. The output of domestic butadiene rubber continued to be at a high level this cycle. The butadiene market was boosted by a sharp increase in the raw material market, and the shipment of production enterprises improved somewhat. However, there was some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold. The overall inventory level changed little. Against the background of obvious differences in the negotiation focus, the inventory of individual sample traders decreased slightly during the downstream rigid demand price-pressing procurement follow-up [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,100 - 12,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the futures are at a premium to the spot, and the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has changed from the cost side providing support for the lower valuation to the NR-BR price difference providing support for the lower valuation [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The unilateral trend has changed from being relatively strong in the previous period to high-level oscillations; the upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (moving dynamically following the spot trend of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross-variety: The price difference between NR-BR is gradually narrowing [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In this cycle (January 2 - 8, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, a unit of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical 2, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and there were no obvious changes in other plants, with a slight increase in weekly output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,300 tons, a slight reduction compared to this cycle. There are no plans to restart plants next week, and the maintenance situation of Hainan Refining & Chemical needs further attention [6] 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain at a high level in the medium term, maintaining a year-on-year high demand for butadiene. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant maintenance, it is expected that the rigid demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene will remain at a high level [6] - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6] - In terms of SBS, the operating rate has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand procurement for butadiene with little change [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - In this cycle (January 1 - 7, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly, and the total sample inventory continued to decline by 4.28% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase of 0.48% compared to last week. Although high-price transactions were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The sample port inventory decreased significantly by 7.61% compared to last week. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the raw material inventory of downstream industries was normally consumed. Although there was some trading inventory, the market expectation was relatively strong in the later period, and it was in an inventory reduction cycle overall [6] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short term, the relatively low absolute price has driven downstream periodic replenishment, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene is still relatively strong in the short term. However, due to the weakening of short-term spot market transactions, it is expected that the upward trend of butadiene will slow down [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is expected to be in a mid - term sideways trend. Supply surplus, high forward premium in futures, and potential downstream production cuts are the core driving forces of pressure. The price is supported by limited downside space and suppressed by supply surplus and glass industry cuts. The trading rhythm follows glass, with lower volatility [2][4]. - **Glass**: In the short term, it is weak; in the medium term, it is in a sideways trend, and over - bearish views are not advisable. The market will switch between rising driven by production cut expectations and falling due to weak demand and weak basis. The valuation factor will be crucial in the future [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - In the week, one float glass production line each in Southwest and Central China was shut down for cold repair, resulting in a week - on - week decline in production. As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to January 1st [5]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 21,330 tons/day, and the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 15,010 tons/day. Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,490 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total of 9,370 tons, and potential cold - repair production lines have a total of 9,420 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 150,000 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [16]. Demand As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and home - decoration orders are mainly low - value single orders [6]. Inventory As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period [6]. Price and Profit - Market prices are mostly stable, with some regions showing increases. The price in Shahe is about 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton (up 10 - 20 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region is 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the prices of some large manufacturers are 1,110 - 1,250 yuan/ton (mostly stable, some slightly up 10 - 20 yuan/ton) [19][23]. - The profit with petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuels are about - 186 and - 74 yuan/ton respectively [28][32]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - Market transactions have weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 400 in - production production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 87,620 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. As of Thursday this week, the sample inventory days were about 40.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 2.66%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.16 percentage points [51][56]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash production plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction. The current capacity utilization rate is 84.4%, and the weekly output of heavy soda ash is about 405,000 tons. The inventory is about 1.5727 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5727 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [60][62][69]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe area is 1,180 yuan/ton, showing an increase. Most manufacturers' ex - factory prices are stable, with prices in Shandong increasing by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 58 yuan/ton [77][78][84]. Basis and Month - to - Month Spread The rise in futures has led to a weakening of the basis [80].