锌：等待指引 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025 年 09 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22270 | 0.52% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2857.5 | 0.69% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 133585 | 27909 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10693 | -1818 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 105501 | -5809 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 200712 | 1742 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -70 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 22.44 | 6.23 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美 ...

李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 9 月 9 日 硅铁：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 锰硅：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2511 | 5624 | 2 6 | 132,549 | 233,556 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2601 | 5584 | 3 0 | 36,003 | 105,253 | | | 锰硅2511 | 5830 | 0 | 59,735 | 118,789 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5840 | - 4 | 138,580 | 322,510 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5280 | +30.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si1 ...

镍：窄幅震荡运行 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 2025 年 9 月 9 日 1）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 2）根据钢联，4 月 27 日，中国恩菲 EPC 总承包的印尼 CNI 镍铁 RKEF 一期项目成功产出镍铁，标志 着项目正式进入试生产阶段。CNI 项目位于印尼东南苏拉威西省，生产品位 22%的镍铁，单条线年产金属 镍约 1.25 万吨。 3）根据钢联资讯，在印度尼西亚莫罗瓦利工业园区（简称 IMIP）发现了环境违规行为。该部表示， 其中包括涉嫌废水管理不善、空气污染以及使用无许可证的尾矿区等问题。负责环境执法的副部长里扎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 海关总署 9 月 8 日数据显示，2025 年 8 月中国出口钢材 951.0 万吨，较上月减少 32.6 万吨，环比下 降 3.3%；1-8 月累计出口钢材 7749.0 万吨，同比增长 10.0%。8 月中国进口钢材 50.0 万吨，较上月增加 4.8 万吨，环比增长 10.6%；1-8 月累计进口钢材 397.7 万吨，同比下降 14.1%。（数据来源：上海钢联） 2025 年 7 月，我国出口钢材 983.6 万吨，较上月小幅回升 1.6%，出口规模保持相对稳定，出口均价 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2 ...

陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com LPG：地缘风险升温，原油收高 丙烯：现货供需支撑转弱，短期弱势运行 2025 年 9 月 9 日 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2510 | 4,440 | 1.46% | 4,422 | -0.41% | | 期货价格 | PG2511 | 4,378 | 1.65% | 4,357 | -0.48% | | | PL2601 | 6,410 | 0.03% | 6,391 | -0.30% | | | PL2602 | 6,458 | 0.23% | 6,423 | -0.54% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2510 | 81,251 | 16023 | 65,976 | 242 | | | ...

商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：权益市场情绪偏强，基本面制约上方空间 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 75,260 | 1,380 | -280 | -4,320 | 3,340 | 14,340 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 276 | 226 | -2,150 | -15,609 | -209,369 | -111,367 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 2,105 | -1,362 | -9,227 | -42,60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil lacks fundamental drivers and the strategy is to buy on dips [1] - Soybean oil is waiting for the South American sowing season and is in a volatile adjustment phase [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,320 yuan/ton with a -0.94% change, (night session) 9,440 yuan/ton with a 1.29% change; trading volume was 87 lots with an increase of 84 lots, and open interest was 1,138 lots with a decrease of 87 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,420 yuan/ton with a -0.43% change, (night session) 8,398 yuan/ton with a -0.26% change; trading volume was 242 lots with an increase of 132 lots, and open interest was 2,746 lots with a decrease of 242 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,930 yuan/ton with a -0.20% change, (night session) 9,839 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 200 lots with an increase of 150 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots with a decrease of 25 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,488 ringgit/ton with a 0.88% change (day session) and 0.00% change (night session) [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 51.40 cents/pound with a 0.33% change [1] 3.1.2 Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 9,350 yuan/ton with a -30 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 1 soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,740 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan/ton change [1] - Grade 4 imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 9,790 yuan/ton with no change [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,105 dollars/ton with no change [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 30 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 320 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was -140 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was 369 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 292 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: Previous trading day was -1,050 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was -1,076 yuan/ton [1] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 212 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 232 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 292 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 314 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: Previous trading day was 315 yuan/ton, two trading days ago was 245 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From September 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 5.70% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.11% month - on - month, and production decreased by 6.28% month - on - month [2] - USDA: As of September 7, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63%, previous week was 65%, and same period last year was 65%; pod - setting rate was 97%, previous week was 94%, same period last year was 97%, and five - year average was 97%; leaf - dropping rate was 21%, previous week was 11%, same period last year was 23%, and five - year average was 22% [3][4] - AgRural: Brazilian farmers have started planting the 2025/26 soybean crop, and as of last Thursday, the sowing rate was 0.02%, while last year's sowing had not started at the same time [4] - Safras & Mercado: Predicted 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is 1.8092 billion tons, a 5.3% increase from last year's 1.7184 billion tons; new - season planting area is about 48.21 million hectares, a 1.2% increase from the previous year; average yield per unit area is expected to increase from 3,625 kg/hectare to 3,771 kg/hectare; 2026 Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 108 million tons, the same as the July forecast, a 3% increase from 2025's 105 million tons; 2026 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised from 59 million tons to 59.5 million tons, and 2025's forecast is raised from 57 million tons to 58 million tons [4] - Safras & Mercado: In 2026, Brazilian soybean meal production is expected to reach 46.708 million tons, a 3% increase; exports are expected to increase by 4% to 24 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to be 20.7 million tons, an 8% increase; inventory is expected to increase by 38% to 7.295 million tons; year - end inventory is expected to decrease by 17% to 229,000 tons; soybean oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 11.603 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 17% to 1 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 6% to 10.8 million tons, and biofuel use is expected to increase by 6% to 6.2 million tons [5] - SOPA: Urged the Indian government to raise the import tariff of vegetable oils by at least 10%, warned that low domestic prices are forcing farmers to abandon oilseed crops, soybean planting area has decreased by more than 5% this year, and market prices have been below the minimum support price; Indian government reduced the import tariff of vegetable oils including soybean oil from 20% to 10% in May 2025 to ease inflation, but the tariff of refined edible oils remained at 35.75% [6] - APK - Inform: Lowered the 2025/26 Ukrainian soybean export forecast from 3.69 million tons to 2.63 million tons and the 2025/26 Ukrainian sunflower oil export forecast from 5.7 million tons to 5.67 million tons [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [7]

短纤：短期反弹 瓶片：短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 09 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 0 | 6250 | -6250 | PF09-10 | -6.372 | -98 | -6.274 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6372 | 6348 | 24 | PF10-11 | 1 4 | 18 | -4 | | | 短纤2511 | 6358 | 6330 | 28 | PF基差 | 78 | 87 | -9 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 205170 | 168093 | 37077 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 450 | 6. 435 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 170693 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 生猪：现货情绪转弱，中枢下移 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 13730 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 13450 | | -300 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 14240 | | -1000 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | | 13305 | | -20 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 13760 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 13 ...

2025 年 9 月 9 日 沥青：油价起落反复，库存整体去化 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,465 | -0.06% | 3,443 | -0.63% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,440 | 0.09% | 3,415 | -0.73% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 60,865 | (25,802) | 45,780 | (9,046) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 189,467 | (58,562) | 242,529 | 1,132 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 65160 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...