Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the palm oil price can be short - term confirmed at the bottom, but long - term layout requires further observation. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and the driving force is not strong, so short - term interval operation is the main approach. Long - term layout of oils still needs more verification and patience. [3][6] - The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - In December, the production reduction was close to 10%, gradually fulfilling the production reduction expectation. High - frequency export data was good, providing short - term support for palm oil. Meanwhile, technical buying was strong, and the 05 contract rose 2.78% last week. [1] Soybean Oil - Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward driving force of US soybeans was limited. It mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract of soybean oil rose 1.40% last week. [2] 2. This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - MPOA data shows that the production reduction in December was 8%, gradually approaching the production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows that exports in the first 25 days increased by 2%. In December, it is very likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process. A large number of buying orders emerged at the technical buying point of 8200, and it has returned to the normal trading choice of buying on dips during the production - reduction season. [3] - Although more monthly production data is still needed to verify whether the current high - yield of palm oil is due to improved park management and increased labor or factors such as tree age and rainfall. With the arrival of high - intensity rainfall in the rainy season, if the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the short - term bottom of palm oil can be confirmed. Long - term layout needs further observation. If the month - on - month production reduction in January is still less than 10%, a normal monthly increase of 100,000 tons in 2026 production has to be considered, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have stabilized, and the refining profit in Indonesia has continued to rise. After short - term demand stimulation, Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts. Indonesia announced the biodiesel allocation volume of 15.64 million kiloliters for 2026 within the scope of the B40 plan, which will increase the industrial demand for palm oil in Indonesia by about 800,000 tons next year. This figure is not enough to offset the optimistic expectation of palm oil production growth in Indonesia next year, but the market reaction was flat, even showing a sentiment of "bad news is out". This reflects the market's expectation for B50 next year and that the current demand is not the main contradiction. The de - stocking process during the low - production period dominates the trading rhythm. If the inventory cannot be reduced to below 1.8 million tons after June next year, whether B50 can be promoted in the second half of the year will become a key variable and hit the market's confidence in going long. [3] - In the consumer areas, the recent import profit of CPO in India has declined. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's ship - buying, showing certain marginal demand, it was not enough to cause the short - squeeze situation since June. The import profit inversion in China has widened, and the speed of releasing the pressure from the producing areas is not fast. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. US soybean oil is unlikely to get further stimulation in the short term, and it mainly operates in an interval based on fundamental trading, without upward breakthrough momentum, but its support is actually stronger than that of Malaysian palm oil. The upward opening of the palm oil price space needs to expect a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, waiting for the producing areas to start de - stocking and the production in the first and second quarters to be lower than expected to inject imagination space for the new year. [3] Soybean Oil - As of this week, the growth of soybeans in South American countries is generally good, and the production prospect is positive. In the next half - month, the rainfall in various places in Brazil and Paraguay will continue to alternate, which is generally conducive to maintaining the current good growth state of soybeans. However, the core producing areas in Argentina will face the first round of high - temperature and little - rain weather this year, and attention should be paid to the changes in the later rainfall forecast. The pressure of the good prospect of South American soybeans is strongly reflected in the US soybean market. If Argentina still cannot develop a drought later, it is temporarily difficult to see the height of the rebound of the January CBOT soybeans. It is expected that the main form of January's fluctuation will be oscillatory stabilization. [5] - Against the background of fewer ship - buying in China in the first quarter of next year, the suspension of the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans and the ambiguous news of strengthened customs quarantine on soybean imports in China prompted the domestic soybean products to rebound strongly this week. The soybean inventory at domestic ports will accelerate to decline from January to February, which is conducive to supporting the strength of domestic soybean spot and near - month contracts. The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. Insufficient export demand and arrival of goods enable domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly de - stocking process until March or April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5] 3. [Disk Basic Market Data] - **Price and Volume Data**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, position volume, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main contracts are provided. For example, the palm oil main contract opened at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a high of 8,610 yuan/ton, a low of 8,230 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,568 yuan/ton, up 2.78%. [8] - **Spread Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of spreads such as the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, palm oil 15 spread, soybean oil 15 spread, and rapeseed oil 15 spread are presented. For example, the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,421 yuan/ton this week, up 45.45% from last week. [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are given. For example, the number of palm oil warehouse receipts this week was 260 hands, a decrease of 336 hands from last week. [8] 4. [Core Data of Oil Fundamentals] - **Production and Inventory Data**: Graphs show that Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in December is close to 10%, and although the inventory at the end of the year is still high, it is likely to de - stock in December. Indonesia's inventory at the end of the year is expected to return to a neutral and relatively loose level. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 600,000 tons. [10][12][17] - **Price and Profit Data**: Graphs display the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, India's palm oil import profit, the CNF price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil, the basis of palm oil (South China) for 01, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu). [12][16] - **Export and Rainfall Data**: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from the same period last month. Graphs also show the POGO price difference, Malaysia's and Indonesia's weekly rainfall conditions (including two - week forecasts). [13][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton rebounded due to a weaker dollar, a significant increase in Chinese cotton prices, and improved weekly US cotton export data, but its upward momentum is limited, and it is currently in a low - level consolidation. In the short term, it is likely to remain in low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [1][7][18]. - The fundamentals of the domestic cotton market have not changed significantly. The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is more affected by market sentiment, especially after breaking through 14,300. The supply of domestic cotton is sufficient, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market is not pessimistic about the full - year demand in the 2025/26 season. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 63.75, reached a high of 64.81, a low of 63.48, and closed at 64.46, up 0.81 with a 1.27% increase. Trading volume was 52,219 lots, a decrease of 44,678 lots, and open interest was 180,943 lots, a decrease of 2,503 lots [6]. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,045, reached a high of 14,700, a low of 14,010, and closed at 14,535, up 520 with a 3.71% increase. Trading volume was 1,747,852 lots, an increase of 538,313 lots, and open interest was 903,860 lots, an increase of 142,317 lots [6]. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,050, reached a high of 20,720, a low of 20,045, and closed at 20,585, up 535 with a 2.67% increase. Trading volume was 60,104 lots, an increase of 21,170 lots, and open interest was 23,202 lots, an increase of 381 lots [6]. 2. Fundamentals International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: rebounded this week but has limited upward momentum and is in a low - level consolidation [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending December 11, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 69,100 tons, a 99% week - on - week increase and a 95% increase from the four - week average. Vietnam contracted 28,400 tons, and China 20,200 tons. 2026/27 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 3,400 tons. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 30,500 tons, a 32% week - on - week increase and a 17% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 444,700 tons, accounting for 55% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons); the cumulative export shipments were 605,100 tons, accounting for 42% of the annual total contracts [7]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: CCI's procurement continued. The cumulative procurement of 2025/26 season seed cotton converted to lint was 850,000 tons, and there was also 94,000 tons of 2024/25 season cotton, so the total inventory was 944,000 tons. As of December 23, the cumulative market volume in India this year was 2.006 million tons, an increase of 272,000 tons from December 17 [8]. - Brazil: Planting progress was slow. As of December 20, the 2025/26 season cotton planting in Brazil was 16.9% completed, a 6.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous period, 3 percentage points slower year - on - year, and 3.7 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years [8]. - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remained moderate. In November, Pakistan imported 44,000 tons of cotton, a 41.5% decrease from the previous month (76,000 tons) and a 61.9% decrease year - on - year (116,000 tons) [9]. - Vietnam: Imported cotton was sporadically purchased. The purchase was limited to a small amount of recently shipped resources, mainly focusing on certified cotton such as BCI and US Cotton Trust Protocol [9]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending December 26, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 66.9%, Vietnam's was 61.9%, and Pakistan's was 65.5% [11]. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton prices continued to rise, and fixed - price transactions were good. As of December 26, the first - grade cotton registered warehouse receipts were 4,853, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,834, totaling 8,687, equivalent to 364,854 tons [12]. - Spinning mills' confidence was boosted, and the situation of fabric mills continued to diverge. The overall actual transaction price of pure - cotton yarn increased by about 200 yuan. The Xinjiang spinning mills maintained a relatively high startup rate, while the startup rate of inland spinning mills continued to decline. The full - cotton grey fabric market was still divided, and the order - receiving situation was not optimistic [13]. 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 basic data charts related to cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and warehouse receipts [15][16][17] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is likely to remain in low - level consolidation in the short term, and attention should be paid to external market sentiment changes [18]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term, but the upside may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, downstream profits, out - of - quota cotton import profits, and spot basis. The discussion on the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 is more suitable to be traded after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [18].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Basis Deviation to be Corrected, Cathode Plants Initiate Maintenance - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, lithium carbonate futures contracts rose significantly. The 2601 contract closed at 127,800 yuan/ton, up 18,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2605 contract closed at 130,520 yuan/ton, up 19,120 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 14,250 yuan/ton to 111,900 yuan/ton. The SMM futures-spot basis (2601 contract) fell 3,830 yuan/ton to -15,900 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of supply and demand fundamentals, the resumption of production of large mines is postponed again. Overseas shipments have increased, but short-term production elasticity is limited. Many cathode material manufacturers will conduct maintenance at the end of December or early January, and the off-season has arrived as expected. Terminal performance is divided, with the domestic energy storage winning bid scale in the first three weeks of December increasing by 74% year-on-year, while the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by only 1% year-on-year [3]. - In terms of inventory, this week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 652 tons, with the destocking speed slowing down by 392 tons compared with last week. The downstream inventory destocking speed remained high, and the midstream inventory accumulation speed increased. This week, 2,350 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 17,861 lots [4]. - Regarding the future market, the off-season demand is under pressure, but optimistic expectations are continuously strengthening. There are large differences between bulls and bears. Bears believe that the inventory pressure will gradually increase, while bulls believe that the cathode processing fee is expected to rise through negotiation, which is beneficial to the further increase of upstream lithium salts [5]. - For unilateral trading, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Investors should be cautious when chasing high prices. The price range of the futures main contract is expected to be between 120,000 and 140,000 yuan/ton. For inter - period trading, near - month positions are restricted, and the far - end price is relatively strong. For hedging, due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended that both upstream and downstream appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The report provides charts of the price difference between lithium carbonate spot and futures, and the inter - period price difference of lithium carbonate futures, sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Mines) - Charts show the processing profit of spodumene concentrate in the spot and futures markets, the average price trend of spodumene concentrate, the monthly import volume and price of lithium concentrate, and the monthly import volume and price of Australian lithium concentrate, with data sources including Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [9][10][11]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - Multiple charts display the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the East China region, the price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, the price trends of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the processing cost of converting industrial - grade lithium carbonate to battery - grade lithium carbonate and the futures discount cost, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price, the monthly export volume of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate by region, the weekly production and weekly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly operating rate of domestic lithium carbonate, the monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile and Argentina, the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate, and the monthly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate downstream and smelters, all sourced from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [11][13][14][15][16]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - Charts present the monthly production and monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of ternary materials, the monthly production and monthly operating rate of various ternary materials, the import and export volume of ternary materials, the installed capacity of Chinese lithium batteries, and the production of various domestic power lithium batteries, with data from Mysteel, SMM, Flush, and Guotai Junan Futures Research [17][18].

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年12月28日 | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 51W2025 | 51W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | 全球发货 | 160230.9 | 155265.3 | 4965.6 | 3.2% | | 澳发货 | 91427 | 91005.8 | 421.2 | 0.5% | | 巴发货 | 39096.6 | 38142.9 | 953.7 | 2.5% | | 澳+巴发货 | 130523.6 | 129148.7 | 1374.9 | 1.1% | | 澳+巴发货占比 | 81.5% | 83.2% | -1.7% | | | 力拓-中国发货 | 25633.8 | 25304.2 | 329.6 | 1.3% | | 必和必拓-中国发货 | 24412.5 | 24470.1 | -57.6 | -0.2% | | 福德士河-中国发货 | 17681.4 | 16643.4 | 1038.0 | 6 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to experience high-level volatile consolidation in the short term. The high prices are mainly due to the overall commodity market sentiment and capital operation rather than real demand. The de-stocking trend in the supply side provides support for the market, while the demand from the downstream paper market remains weak. [98] 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of December 25, 2025, the pulp inventories at Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China decreased, with a 8.9% decline at Changshu Port, 2.0% at Qingdao Port, and 26.7% at Gaolan Port. The total inventory of major sample ports in China decreased by 4.4% to 1.906 million tons, showing a continuous de-stocking trend for five weeks. [5][6] - In November 2025, the import of bleached softwood pulp in China was 725,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.9% and a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The import of bleached hardwood pulp was 1.765 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 33.8% and a year-on-year increase of 29.7%. The import of chemimechanical pulp was 104,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.0% and a year-on-year increase of 50.5%. [6][7] Market Data - On December 26, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was -30 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 131.91% and a year-on-year decrease of 107.01%. The basis of Russian needle pulp was -230 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 116.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 945.45%. The price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no month-on-month change and a year-on-year decrease of 55.56%. [16] - On December 26, 2025, the 01 - 03 month spread was -32 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20.00%, and the 03 - 05 month spread was -34 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.56%. [21] Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp narrowed this week. On December 26, 2025, the price difference between silver star and goldfish pulp was 930 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.29%. The price difference between Russian needle and goldfish pulp was 730 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.67% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.60%. [25][27] - The import profit of pulp rebounded. In January 2026, the export prices of some Brazilian hardwood pulp and bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHK) from April of the Golden Eagle Group increased by $20/ton. [31] - The price of imported softwood pulp rose first and then fell slightly this week, with limited decline. The demand from downstream paper mills was difficult to expand, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. [33] - The price of imported hardwood pulp remained high and stable. The import cost is expected to increase, but the demand from downstream paper mills was weak, and the trading volume slowed down. [36] - The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp were stable this week. [41] Supply - The purchase prices of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China mostly decreased this week. [43] - The price and supply of domestic pulp were stable this period. [47] - In October 2025, the pulp port inventory in Europe decreased month-on-month, and the global pulp outbound volume decreased seasonally month-on-month. [52] - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 softwood pulp was low, and the inventory was high; the inventory of hardwood pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year-on-year high. [54] - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean softwood pulp to China decreased significantly month-on-month and was at a low level year-on-year. In September, the export volume of softwood pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased both month-on-month and year-on-year. In October, the export volume of Finnish softwood pulp to China continued to rise month-on-month. [57][60] - In October 2025, the export volume of hardwood pulp from Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. In November, the export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp to China decreased significantly month-on-month, and the export volumes of Uruguay and Chile decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year. [63][64] - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with a 4.93% increase in softwood pulp and a significant 33.85% increase in hardwood pulp month-on-month. [66] Demand - The price of domestic offset paper was stable. The core contradiction was the double squeeze of high costs and weak demand. Although paper enterprises intended to raise prices, the social demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. [70] - The domestic coated paper market was mainly adjusted slightly in different regions. Paper mills maintained stable production, but the demand was differentiated. The market was cautious, and some regions had price inversion. [74] - The price of white cardboard decreased slightly this period. The cost had little impact on the market. The production increased, the downstream demand improved slightly, and the market price was mainly stable, with some discounts in local markets. [78] - The price of tissue paper increased slightly, but the trading atmosphere was dull, and the terminal demand improved little. The cost was supported by the stable price of raw pulp and the firm price of hardwood pulp. [82] - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month-on-month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month-on-month. [86] Inventory - On December 26, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 101,000 tons, with 95,000 tons in warehouses and 6,000 tons in factories. The warehouse receipt quantity in warehouses increased by 2.13% month-on-month and decreased by 69.45% year-on-year. [89] - The overall port inventory was at a relatively low level in the year, and the inventory of major sample ports in China continued to decline this period. The inventory at Qingdao Port and Changshu Port continued to decrease, and the daily shipment speed at Qingdao Port increased. [95]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Research Group: Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] - Chief Analyst: Ji Xianfei [1] - Contact Person: Wang Zongyuan [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Zinc prices are in a short - term tangled consolidation phase with a neutral strength - weakness analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is gradually resuming production, while demand is seasonally declining. The overseas short - squeeze has ended, and the domestic inventory reduction pace may slow down. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will dominate prices, and there is potential for zinc prices to rise. Consider buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last week was 23,170, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 23,215, with a night - session increase of 0.19%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 3086.5, with a weekly increase of 0.28% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 145,708, an increase of 82,086 from the previous week, and the open interest was 97,425, an increase of 50,616. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 7,997, a decrease of 497, and the open interest was 229,088, an increase of 1,627 [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 3,103 to 42,075; SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,054 to 72,963; social inventory decreased by 7,500 to 114,700; LME zinc inventory increased by 6,975 to 106,875; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,300 [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore, smelter finished product inventories are falling from high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventories are decreasing [8]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are rising and are at a medium - to - high historical level; smelting profits are rising and at a historical median; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Smelting capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization is at a medium - to - low historical level. Zinc concentrate and refined zinc capacity utilization rates have declined and are at a medium level compared to the same period; downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide capacity utilization rates have increased but are at a medium - to - low historical level [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums in Guangdong and Tianjin are oscillating. Overseas premiums are differentiated this week, with the Singapore premium stable, and the LME CASH - 3M has fallen from a high level and changed to a C structure [16][17]. - **Spread**: The SHFE zinc C structure has flattened [19]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory reduction this week, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio has decreased. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a significant increase in total inventory. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory, and the cancelled - warrant ratio has dropped significantly to a historical low. Bonded - area inventory remained unchanged this week, and the total global visible zinc inventory has increased significantly [27][32][34]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The domestic open interest is at a medium level compared to the same period in history [35]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have increased significantly, domestic zinc ore production has decreased, import ore processing fees have decreased this week, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly. Ore arrivals at ports are at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [38][39]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has declined and is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level [45][46]. - **Imports and Exports**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history [51][54]. - **Downstream Industries**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural growth [70]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - Natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices in Europe are presented, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different European countries is also shown [72][75].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are rising significantly due to the resonance of macro and fundamental expectations. The macro - environment shows strong economic data in the US and continuous release of favorable policies in China. Fundamentally, short - term domestic spot drivers are weakening, but overseas drivers remain strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices [3][7]. - It is recommended to use a long - position trading model as multiple logics drive the price to remain firm. There are also opportunities in spread trading such as term positive spreads and internal - external reverse spreads [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The volatility of LME, SHFE, and INE copper has expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 14%, and the SHFE copper volatility is about 18%, showing a significant rebound compared to the previous week [12][13]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has also widened [14][16]. - **Position**: The LME copper position has decreased, while the positions of SHFE and INE copper have increased. The SHFE copper position has increased by 22,800 lots to 654,700 lots [17]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: The net short position of LME commercial enterprises has decreased, and the net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased [23]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, while the Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded. The US copper premium remains at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums are stable or rising [27][29]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The bonded area inventory has decreased, the COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased [30][34]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio fluctuates, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level [35]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports have increased year - on - year, and the processing fee remains weak. The port inventory has decreased, and the smelting loss has narrowed [38][40]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports and domestic production have increased year - on - year. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the import loss has turned into profit [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and the processing fee has rebounded [49]. - **Refined Copper**: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss of copper spot imports has expanded [52]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rate of copper product enterprises rebounded in November, but the operating rates of copper tubes and copper strips and foils are at historically low levels. The operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally in the week of December 25 [57]. - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, while the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. The copper strip and lithium - ion copper foil processing fees are stable at a low level [60][62]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level. The raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises is at a neutral - to - low level, and that of copper tube enterprises is at a historically low level [63]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rod enterprises has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. The finished product inventory of copper tube enterprises is at a relatively low level [66]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent copper consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. The actual copper consumption from January to October increased by 8.36% year - on - year, and the apparent consumption increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The power grid investment growth rate has slowed down [71][73]. - **Sector - Specific Consumption**: Air - conditioner production decreased in November, with a year - on - year decline of 35.70%. New - energy vehicle production is at a historically high level, with a year - on - year increase of 20.05% in November [74].

估值 • 绝对价格估值：按照原油60美金估值，BZ2603合约5300-5500元/吨是合理估值。 • EB加工费：短期扩利润。 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。 部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的高进口， 2月之后的进口待评估。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月 关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。关注近期己内酰胺利润恢复是否会导致装置提前重启。 • 苯酚：开工逐步回升，12月检修3万吨，1月检修1万吨。山东睿霖新装置投产或有延期。 • 苯胺：12月检修7万吨，主要宁 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温温和；白银：突破高点，继续拉升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：990-1050元/克、17500-20000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升10.73%，伦敦银回升4.65%。金银比从前周的68.7回落至64.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.91%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.14%（2年期3.46%），美元指数录得98。 ◆ 本周白银价格快速拉升，突破我们给到的第一目标位75美元/盎司，最高接近80美元/盎司。近期我们关注到白银现货指标发生变化： 1、现货升水上升，主要来自深圳地区对白银抢购热情高涨，以及散户的集中涌入。2、期货库存转为去库。 3、递延 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 6 1、本周双胶纸市场主流维稳，个别成交偏灵活。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，与上周 趋势相比由跌转稳；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4448元/吨，环比上涨0.59%，与上周趋势相比由稳转涨。影响市场价格走势的主要因素 有：第一，周内部分规模纸企发布2026年1月涨价函，略提振市场信心；第二，年末经销商积极回款为主，整体拿货意愿一般，出货价格多 数稳定；第三，出版订单继续提货，本白双胶纸价格运行动力仍存，而下游社会面订单无明显好转，高 ...