Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that on December 23, 2025, the four major index futures contracts showed mixed performance. The trading volume of index futures decreased overall, reflecting a decline in investors' trading enthusiasm. The holdings of different index futures varied, with some increasing and some decreasing. The trend strength of IF and IH, as well as IC and IM, is 1. There were important policy - related events such as the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference and the Central Enterprise Leaders' Meeting, which may impact the market. The A - share market had a narrow - range consolidation, while the Hong Kong stock market trended lower [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Index Futures Data - On December 23, IF rose 0.15%, IH rose 0.17%, IC rose 0.04%, and IM fell 0.16%. The trading volume of index futures decreased overall, with IF down 789 lots, IC down 7094 lots, and IM down 1632 lots, while IH increased 817 lots. In terms of holdings, IF increased 7033 lots, IH decreased 761 lots, IC decreased 1024 lots, and IM increased 2002 lots [1][2]. - Specific contract data: For example, the closing price of IF2601 was 4598.8, up 0.15%, with a basis of - 21.93; the closing price of IH2601 was 3024.2, up 0.17%, with a basis of - 3.32; the closing price of IC2601 was 7223.6, up 0.04%, with a basis of - 33.19; the closing price of IM2601 was 7343, down 0.16%, with a basis of - 49.42 [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Holdings Changes - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of different contracts varied, such as - 28 for IF2601 and 5463 for IF2603. The short - position changes also differed, like - 330 for IF2601 and 5797 for IF2603 [5]. - Similar situations occurred in IH, IC, and IM contracts. For example, in IH2601, the long - position increased by 289, and the short - position decreased by 98 [5]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH, as well as IC and IM, is 1, indicating a neutral state. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]. 3.4 Important Driving Factors - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed to adjust and optimize real - estate policies, support housing demand, and reform the housing provident fund system [6]. - The Central Enterprise Leaders' Meeting required central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain security, technological innovation, and serving national strategies, and to further deepen state - owned enterprise reforms [7]. 3.5 Stock Market Performance - A - share market: The three major A - share indexes had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%. The trading volume was 1.92 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine industries were strong, while the commercial - space theme had a deep correction [7]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.11% to 25774.14 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69% to 5488.89 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29% to 8913.83 points. The trading volume was 1571.31 billion Hong Kong dollars, less than the previous day [8].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium: Downstream Materials Have Price Increase Expectations, Stronger Sideways Movement" and was released on December 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The carbonate lithium market is expected to experience a stronger sideways movement due to the price increase expectations of downstream materials [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary - **Futures Contracts**: The 2601 contract's closing price is 118,440, with a decrease compared to previous periods; the 2605 contract's closing price is 120,360, also with a decrease compared to previous periods. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts show different trends [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 16,651, showing an increase compared to the previous period [2] - **Basis**: The basis between different contracts and the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon show certain fluctuations [2] - **Raw Materials**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have increased compared to previous periods [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade carbonate lithium, industrial - grade carbonate lithium, and other lithium salts have generally increased compared to previous periods [2] - **Consumer Products**: The prices of various lithium - related consumer products such as ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate show different trends [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 99,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 455 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 99,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 96,850 yuan/ton, both with a daily increase of 500 yuan/ton [3] - Hualian Holdings plans to acquire 100% of the shares of Argentum Lithium S.A. for about 1235 million yuan, obtaining 80% of the rights and interests of the Arizaro project. The main product of the target company is battery - grade carbonate lithium [4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 短纤：短期跟涨原料，加工费压缩 20251224 瓶片：短期跟涨原料 20251224 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：今日短纤期货维持上涨，现货方面今日江浙工厂报价维稳，福建上涨 50，半光 1.4D 主流报价在 6550~6600 区间。期货进一步走高，贸易商及期现商部分维稳，部分略有上涨，半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心多在 6300~6550 区间，下游接受能力弱，按需采购为主。今日直纺涤短工厂平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：60%、 100%、30%、80%、70%、0%、80%、70%、20%，60%。 瓶片：上游原料期货继续上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂多上调 50-150 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交尚可。12-2 月订单多成交在 5850-5970 元/吨出厂不等，少量略低 5750-5840 元/吨附近，少量略高 6000 元/吨出厂，品牌 不同价格略有差异。 （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All the industries mentioned in the report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral investment rating [7][8][10] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market news. It offers investment suggestions and views on the future trends of these commodities [2][7][8] Summaries Based on Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite planned polyester factory production cuts, the short - term trend remains strong due to the tight supply expectation [7]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, with a positive upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads [8]. - MEG: Demand is weakening, and the price is expected to continue to decline. The mid - term trend is still bearish [8]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a wide - range oscillation. Port inventory accumulation suppresses market sentiment, but the human - mixed spot market is expected to strengthen in the long - term [10][12] Synthetic Rubber - It has entered an oscillatory phase. The previous upward trend has slowed down due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamental data of butadiene and synthetic rubber [15] Asphalt - It shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price in East China is accelerating its decline. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively stable, but there are signs of inventory accumulation [17][28] LLDPE - Spot prices remain weak. Although the futures have rebounded, the market trading atmosphere is still sluggish. The supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand needs to be concerned [29][30] PP - The PDH profit is compressed again, and the trend is oscillatory and weak. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - There is a short - term rebound, but the high - yield and high - inventory pattern around the Spring Festival remains. The far - month contract has long - position value, but the upward price elasticity depends on large - scale supply - side maintenance or production cuts [34][35] Pulp - It is oscillating. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weakly rigid. The supply - side port inventory pressure still exists, and it is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream procurement trends [40][41] Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and processing plants purchase raw sheets as needed [43][44] Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port inventory is in a de - stocking pattern, and the macro - situation may drive a short - term rebound, but the upside space is limited [46][48] Urea - It oscillates in the short - term, and the mid - term price center is expected to rise. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the demand and cost factors jointly affect the price trend [50][53] Styrene - It oscillates in the short - term. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks of negative feedback from downstream product inventories [54][55] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The comprehensive supply is decreasing, and downstream enterprises purchase on a "use - as - needed" basis [60] LPG - The market is suppressed by warehouse receipts, and the futures price has declined [62] Propylene - The spot market is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the start - up rate of related devices [63] PVC - The short - term rebound space may be limited. The high - yield and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and large - scale production cut expectations may appear after the 03 contract [71][73] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows a slight decline with increased short - term fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [76] Container Freight Index (European Route) - The near - month contract oscillates, and the far - month contract depends on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand situation of shipping capacity and freight volume, as well as geopolitical factors, jointly affect the price trend [78][87] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber follows the raw material price increase in the short - term, with compressed processing fees. Bottle chips also follow the raw material price increase in the short - term, and the market transaction is fair [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and watch. The market price is stable, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [95][96] Pure Benzene - It oscillates in the short - term. The inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter of 2026, with a chance of a bottom - rebound in the second quarter [99][100]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2] - Silver: Reached a new high [2] - Copper: The price is rising due to the continuous decline of the US dollar [2] - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2] - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2] - Aluminum: Trading in a narrow range [2] - Alumina: Rebounded from the bottom [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: The overseas market has broken through the previous high, with strong upward momentum [2] - Palladium: Continues to rise following platinum [2] - Nickel: Concerns about Indonesian policies have led to an emotional rally in the market [2] - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and are affected by news of Indonesian nickel mines [2] Summary by Related Categories Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Gold 2602 was 241,461, an increase of 42,965 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 93,711 kg, an increase of 1,995 kg from the previous day [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3%, the fastest in two years [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [7] Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16,441, up 1.50% [4]. The trading volume of Comex Silver 2602 was 127,435, an increase of 30,063 from the previous day [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 899,663 kg, a decrease of 1,805 kg from the previous day [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 0 [7] Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Copper contract was 93,930, down 0.41%, and the night - session price was 94,890, up 1.02% [8]. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 260,740, a decrease of 144,031 from the previous day [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 49,543 tons, an increase of 1,001 tons from the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Glencore acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [10] Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 23,090 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [11]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Zinc contract was 133,845 lots, a decrease of 579 lots from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 41,343 tons, a decrease of 1,247 tons from the previous day [11]. - **News**: The US Q3 GDP grew at 4.3% [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [13] Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 16,995 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [14]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Lead contract was 44,610 lots, a decrease of 4,634 lots from the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 12,509 tons, a decrease of 1,329 tons from the previous day [14]. - **News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 344,750, up 1.27% [17]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Tin contract was 228,643, a decrease of 11,222 from the previous day [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,340 tons, an increase of 655 tons from the previous day [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, growing at 4.3% [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract was 22,195, a decrease of 25 from the previous day [21]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Alumina contract was 168,096, a decrease of 1,987 from the previous day [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was - 2.80 million tons [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trend intensity is 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 619.95, up 9.06% [24]. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 155,413, an increase of 101,107 from the previous day [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum was 624,733 ounces (previous day) [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US economy expanded at a 4.3% rate in Q3 [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 1; Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 123,440 [32]. The trading volume of the main Shanghai Nickel contract was 386,986, an increase of 190,610 from the previous day [32]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target in 2026 [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is + 1; Stainless steel trend intensity is + 1 [36]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information available on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The cotton futures price is oscillating with a slightly upward trend, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,140 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.50%, and the night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.04%. The trading volume was 308,398 lots, a decrease of 144,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,123,245 lots, an increase of 7,199 lots. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,185 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.37%, and the night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.12%. The trading volume was 8,895 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,262 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.02 cents/pound with an increase of 0.64% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,088, an increase of 13 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 4,001, an increase of 170. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 14, an increase of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 9 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,971 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,985 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,246 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 15,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan or 0.73% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 0.00 cents/pound, a decrease of 72 cents or 100.00% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,103 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 remained unchanged at 830 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall transaction of domestic cotton spot was relatively active. The fixed - price trading continued to improve, while the point - price trading was relatively sluggish. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4130/30B with impurity within 3.5 were mostly above 15,000 yuan for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. Some fixed - price transactions of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30B with impurity within 3 were at 15,100 - 15,150 yuan (public standard) for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the sales were differentiated. Driven by the continuous rise in the upstream cotton price, the overall quotation of cotton yarn was firm. High - count combed yarn was the main force for price increases and had good sales, while the price of low - count yarn (including rotor - spun yarn) was stable due to inventory accumulation. The downstream weaving market was in a strong off - season atmosphere, with no obvious intention to replenish stocks. The weak demand dragged down the overall transaction. Although the pre - Spring Festival stocking expectation provided phased support for medium - and low - count yarns, it was difficult to change the overall off - season pattern [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures rose slightly yesterday, affected by the weakening of the US dollar [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations, with spot prices in East China accelerating their decline [2] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2602 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.60%, and closed at 2,978 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 242,206 lots yesterday, a decrease of 124,436 lots, and the open interest was 204,742 lots, a decrease of 12,429 lots [3] - BU2603 closed at 2,990 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.57%, and closed at 2,991 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 72,217 lots yesterday, a decrease of 51,364 lots, and the open interest was 145,519 lots, an increase of 6,333 lots [3] - The total asphalt market's warehouse receipts were 54,100 lots yesterday, with no change [3] - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 57 yuan/ton yesterday, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 13 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The Shandong - South China spread remained at - 40, and the East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 2,920 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,076 yuan/ton and 3,222 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,090 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,192 yuan/ton and 3,258 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Industry Data**: - As of December 22, the refinery operating rate was 37.26%, down 0.62% from December 18 [3] - As of December 22, the refinery inventory rate was 27.46%, down 0.04% from December 18 [3] 3.2 Market Information - A supertanker "Kelly" loaded with oil from Venezuela has returned to Venezuelan waters [14] - From December 16 - 22, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 549,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons (8.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 72,000 tons (15.1%). The cumulative production from January - December was 29.845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.191 million tons (7.9%) [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 643,000 tons, a 1.3% increase from December 18. Inventory increased significantly in East China and Shandong due to stable production after intermittent resumption of production in some refineries and lower - than - expected demand [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.04 million tons, a 1.7% increase from December 18. Inventory in East China increased most significantly due to increased ship cargo warehousing and limited actual shipments despite rigid demand [14]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 工业硅：逢高做空 多晶硅：加大开仓限制，关注情绪面波动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,780 | 185 | 415 | -180 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 351,425 | 44,483 | 131,753 | 21,749 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 213,776 | -7,830 | 11,513 | -47,228 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 59,225 | 380 | 625 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 153,313 | -59,967 | -123,635 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 131,603 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the overall upward trend of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down and gradually entered a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. This week, due to the marginal weakening of the overall fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened and prices have corrected. The butadiene market shows a pattern of neutral reality and strong expectations, and the short - term fundamentals of cis - butadiene rubber are weakening. Overall, the processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber may be compressed, and the futures price has corrected under the high - premium pattern. However, due to the strong expectations for butadiene, there is still some speculation, so it enters a short - term volatile pattern [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (02 contract), the daily closing price was 11,175 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 156,564 lots, a decrease of 17,363 lots; the open interest was 103,099 lots, a decrease of 630 lots; and the turnover was 881.139 million yuan, a decrease of 82.07 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene - futures main contract was - 175, an increase of 205; the monthly spread of BR01 - BR05 was - 95, a decrease of 10 [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China private cis - butadiene decreased or remained unchanged, while the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) increased by 150 yuan to 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan to 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 150 yuan to 7,625 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 25 yuan to 7,850 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.7608%, with no change; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 10,534 yuan/ton, with no change; and the cis - butadiene profit was 366 yuan/ton, with no change [1] 2. Industry News - As of December 17, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45%. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises increased [2] - As of December 17, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 36,000 tons, a slight increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Although the inventory change was small this period, there are still some trade - volume inventories and expectations of ocean - going vessel arrivals, so attention should be paid to the phased changes in inventory [2][3]

2025 年 12 月 24 日 尿素：短期震荡，中期中枢上移 标 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 | 杨鈜汉 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 目 | | 收盘价 | 项目名称 （元/吨） | 昨日数据 1,721 | 前日数据 1,698 | 变动幅度 2 3 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,713 | 1,700 | 1 3 | | 尿素主力 | | | 成交量 （手） | 178,146 | 95,294 | 82852 | | 期货市场 | （05合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 179,049 | 169,174 | 9875 | | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 10,532 | 10,881 | -349 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 610,495 | 323,993 | 2 ...