Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided on the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish stance, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive backlogs, demand growth was limited, large - scale farms' efforts to reduce supply and support prices were ineffective, daily trading was poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. The supply pressure in the near - term was difficult to reverse, and the priority of the production - capacity cycle was higher than that of the inventory cycle. It is recommended to enter a 11 - 1 reverse spread trade. The state reserve purchase policy has been implemented, and during the passive inventory accumulation phase, supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of state reserve purchases to be digested. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver has increased, so the premium - collection market continues. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; the Guangdong spot price is 14,790 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 'pig2509' contract is 13,300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 145; the 'pig2511' contract is 13,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the 'pig2601' contract is 13,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 140 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the 'pig2509' contract is 2,887 lots, a decrease of 1,339 from the previous day, and the open interest is 4,118 lots, a decrease of 1,746 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2511' contract is 30,542 lots, an increase of 4,380 from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,963 lots, an increase of 3,370 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2601' contract is 13,435 lots, an increase of 2,826 from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,133 lots, an increase of 582 from the previous day [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the 'pig2509' contract is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the 'pig2511' contract basis is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 155; the 'pig2601' contract basis is - 160 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 140. The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Supply and Demand Remain Loose, Short - term Weak and Fluctuating; Propylene: Supply and Demand Tighten, Spot Price at High" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of LPG remain loose, and it will show a short - term weak and fluctuating trend; the supply and demand of propylene tighten, and the spot price is at a high level [2][3] 3. Specific Content Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Data of LPG and Propylene - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,809 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.60%, and the night - session price was 3,763 with a decline of 1.21%; PG2510 closed at 4,409 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session price was 4,361 with a decline of 1.09%; PL2601 closed at 6,450 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session price was 6,437 with a decline of 0.20%; PL2602 closed at 6,485 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%, and there was no night - session trading [3] - **Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 5,453 yesterday (a decrease of 2131 compared with the previous day), and the position was 11,887 (a decrease of 3639 compared with the previous day); for PG2510, the trading volume was 68,724 yesterday (a decrease of 9094 compared with the previous day), and the position was 87,589 (a decrease of 1203 compared with the previous day); for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,066 yesterday (an increase of 263 compared with the previous day), and the position was 4,897 (an increase of 77 compared with the previous day); for PL2602, the trading volume was 4 yesterday (a decrease of 17 compared with the previous day), and the position was 853 (an increase of 2 compared with the previous day) [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 191 yesterday (compared with 192 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 221 yesterday (compared with 232 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 125 yesterday (compared with 116 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 100 yesterday (compared with 56 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 25 yesterday (compared with - 19 the previous day) [3] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0% (compared with 75.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 63.5% (unchanged from last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.0% (compared with 47.3% last week) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8] 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the September CP paper - goods price of propane was 516 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 492 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The October CP paper - goods price of propane was 529 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [9] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. having maintenance from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [10] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have maintenance plans, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant having a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400; Fuhai Chuang having a full - plant maintenance from the end of June to the end of August 2025, with a normal production volume of 1000 and a loss volume of 1000 [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton crops [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 14,270 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.42%. Its trading volume was 288,889 lots, an increase of 26,527 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 700,389 lots, a decrease of 8,588 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 20,090 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.05%, and 20,175 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.42%. Its trading volume was 6,502 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,701 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE Cotton No. 12 closed at 67.28 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.95% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.03% [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.10% [1]. - The price in Hebei was 15,306 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day with an increase of 0.06% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.04% [1]. - The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 74.24 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.09% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was rather sluggish, with partial areas performing well, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 1150 - 1400, and most of the Southern Xinjiang lint was quoted at 1150 - 1300 for inland self - pick - up. The 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29~30B, impurity within 3) was traded around CF09 + 1700 for in - Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slowed down. Spinning mills reported that orders were not as good as those in the middle of the month. The market mainly sold varieties of C40S and below, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Cotton yarn prices were mainly stable, and spinning mills had a certain willingness to hold prices, but high - priced transactions were difficult [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly. After falling below 67 cents/pound again, commercial and technical buying pushed it to rebound. The weekly US cotton export sales data was still average. As of the week ending August 21, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the 25/26 season was 179,300 bales [1][2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]

2025 年 08 月 29 日 工业硅：关注上方空间 多晶硅：上游库存去化，关注市场信息 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,570 293,193 | 45 -83,002 | -65 -365,882 | -780 -361,651 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 273,754 | -1,804 | -9,824 | -2,980 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 49,665 | 975 | -1,865 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 376,304 | -126,106 | -71,249 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 143,912 | -10,625 | -5,698 | ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated August 29, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by JH meeting with Powell dovish remarks; silver is reaching the previous high; copper prices rise as the dollar falls; zinc shows a weak oscillation; lead prices are supported by inventory reduction; tin and aluminum are in range - bound oscillations; alumina has an obvious supply surplus; nickel runs in a narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel oscillates at a low level in the short - term [2] By Metals Precious Metals Gold - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase. Comex Gold 2510 had a 0.73% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, inventory, and price spreads are provided [5] Silver - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9405.00 with a 0.90% increase. Comex Silver 2510 had a 1.31% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Similar data to gold including trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are presented [5] Base Metals Copper - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a - 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase. LME Copper 3M had a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [11][13] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads is provided. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [11][13] Zinc - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22170 with a - 0.63% decrease, and LME Zinc 3M had a - 1.53% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory are given. The US second - quarter GDP data was revised upwards [14][15] Lead - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16910 with a 0.12% increase, and LME Lead 3M had a - 0.08% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [17][18] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory shows a reduction in inventory [17][18] Tin - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase, and LME Tin 3M had a 0.91% increase. The trend strength is 1 [20][23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are provided [20][23] Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20750, LME Aluminum 3M at 2607. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 3013, and the casting aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 20350. Trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for casting aluminum alloy [24][25] - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, inventory, and industry costs and profits are presented [24][25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 120,990, and stainless steel's main contract closed at 12,850. The trend strengths are both 0 [26][31] - **Fundamentals**: Information on prices, spreads, and industry news such as production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters is provided [26][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers short - to mid - term trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each product has its own market situation, with trends ranging from high - level oscillations, weakening trends, to short - term weakness [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains in tight balance, with high - level oscillations. Affected by weak oil prices, the price dropped rapidly, but the downside is limited. Consider long PX and short EB, and focus on the positive spread position of the monthly difference [6][12]. - **PTA**: The trend is weaker than expected. Suggest long PTA and short MEG. In September, supply is in tight balance or with a slight inventory reduction, and the unilateral price is not considered to be in a trend - based decline [6][12]. - **MEG**: Do a positive spread of the 9 - 1 contract. The 01 contract faces supply pressure above 4600. The port inventory has decreased, and the basis is strong. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [12][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is in an oscillatory state. Rainfall in domestic production areas has affected raw material supply, causing raw material prices to remain high. The future raw material supply pressure is difficult to ease, and the raw material purchase price may continue to be strong [14][17]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are neutral, following the macro - environment. In the medium - term, it is in an oscillatory range. After the commodity sector returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [18][21]. Asphalt - The asphalt market has narrow - range oscillations. This week's production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. It follows the oil price and regional spot price differentials are oscillating steadily [22][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE is in an interval oscillation. Demand is improving due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry. However, commodity sentiment has declined recently. In September, the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical may relieve the supply pressure in the East China region [37][38]. PP - PP is in a medium - term oscillatory market. Short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. But in the long - term, the supply pressure will increase as the maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity expands [41][42]. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. Be bullish in the fourth quarter. Recently, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. But domestic demand is stable, and the key lies in the stocking rhythm before the alumina production capacity is put into operation [45][47]. Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillatory state. The supply of softwood pulp is in surplus, and demand substitution has occurred. The expected peak season demand is poor, and the inventory in ports is high, resulting in price fluctuations [51][55]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. Most regional prices are flat, with a slight increase in the Jiangsu market. The overall market trading is okay, and there are plans for sporadic price increases at the beginning of next month [57][58]. Methanol - Methanol's valuation has returned to a reasonable range, entering a short - term oscillatory pattern. The port and inland markets are both under pressure due to high supply and inventory [60][62]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has slightly increased due to purchases by traders and downstream enterprises. The futures has certain speculative properties, but the upside space is limited due to the high - premium pattern [64][66]. Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium - term. In the short term, it oscillates mainly. The downstream raw material inventory is at a medium - to - high level, and the power for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change, with a weak - stable oscillation. Alkali plant operations are stable, and downstream demand is tepid, with most customers in a wait - and - see attitude [69]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand remains loose, with short - term weak oscillations. - **Propylene**: Supply - demand tightens, and the spot price is at a high level [72][73]. PVC - PVC still faces pressure. The supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The price continued to decline at night and remains weak in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decline in the domestic market continues, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [85]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material support weakens, with a weakening oscillation. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material support weakens, with a weakening oscillation [87]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper oscillates at a low level, with limited upward momentum. The market trading in Shandong and Guangdong is light, and the transaction price has declined [91][92]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has a weakening oscillation. The port inventory has decreased, and the price has declined [93][94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Affected by the weakening of oil prices, the PX price has dropped rapidly, but it remains in a tight - balance pattern with limited downside space. Although this week's PX trend was weaker than expected due to high domestic supply and unconfirmed maintenance plans, there is support from potential oil price rebounds and polyester sales volume at low prices. It is recommended to continue to focus on the positive spread position of monthly differentials and go long on PX and short on EB [6]. - PTA: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. This week's PTA trend was weaker than expected. Polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in September, and the PTA spot basis has weakened. However, PTA supply will be in a tight - balance or even a slight de - stocking situation in September, and the unilateral price is not considered to be in a trend - like decline [7]. - MEG: Do a 9 - 1 positive spread. There is significant pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract, and hedging is recommended at high prices. With low port arrivals in the past two weeks, port inventories have decreased. The basis is strong, and there is an economic incentive to take delivery for the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the proportion of warehouse - receipt holdings and the 9 - 1 positive spread. There will be new production capacity from Yulong Petrochemical in October, so the 01 contract still faces supply - increase pressure, and it is advisable to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. On the 28th, the PX price dropped. The Asian PX price fell on August 28 after more than a week of increase, due to the pressure of weakening crude - oil futures. The polyester industry provided little support for the PX price, with the downstream factory operating rate at about 89.9% this week, slightly lower than the previous week. There were bids and offers for October and November deliveries on the 28th, but no transactions were completed [3][4]. - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 - million - ton plant was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 - million - ton new plant was put into production with increased load. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 70.4%, and the calculated operating rate was around 76.1% [5]. - MEG: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.13% (a 1.97% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic - acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease from the previous period) [5]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of large - scale domestic polyester industrial - yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with individual slight adjustments. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is about 72%. There were both maintenance and start - up of polyester plants this week, and the overall polyester load was slightly adjusted locally. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 89.9%. A 180,000 - ton polyester plant in Changshu was shut down temporarily due to an accident, and the restart time is uncertain. On the 28th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 44%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locally increased, with an average of about 50% - 60% [5]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6886 | 4792 | 4465 | 6526 | 481.7 | | Change | - 0.78% | - 0.66% | - 0.36% | - 0.70% | 0.42% | | Monthly Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 48 | - 56 | - 41 | - 96 | - 8.7 | | Monthly Spread (Change) | - 38 | - 16 | 5 | - 28 | - 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 848.67 (USD/ton) | 4775 (CNY/ton) | 4525 | 593.88 | 67.45 (USD/barrel) | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5.5 | - 62 | - 25 | 3.5 | 0.18 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 270.33 | 248.5 | 102.62 | - 88.83 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 1.16 | 13.1 | 16.36 | - 47.62 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend - intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2 [6].

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 147, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: August 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, expected around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory allowances and low trading willingness; from September, rising pressure from compliance may drive prices up [6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: Main targets show divergent trends, with 567,000 tons listed and 1.717 million tons in bulk transactions [4] - CCER: The listed agreement volume is 2,200 tons, and the average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, down 2.42% [4][10] Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [4] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal, and anticipatory trading may bring forward the reversal time [6] - Carbon price trends are affected by the release of mandatory allowances, trading willingness, and compliance pressure at different times [6] Data Tables - CEA: Different vintages have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, CEA24 has a closing price of 69.78 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, and a bulk transaction average price of 62.17 yuan/ton [8] - CCER: The current average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, with a 2.42% decline, a transaction volume of 2,200 tons, and a cumulative transaction volume of 250,160 tons [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. It presents the latest price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength ratings to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][7][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish stance influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase [6][7][11] - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - closing price was 9405 with a 0.90% increase [7][11] Base Metals - **Copper**: With the fall of the US dollar, the copper price rose. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 78,930 with a - 0.33% change, and the night - closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase [13][15] - **Zinc**: It shows a weak and oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22170 with a - 0.63% change [16][17] - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 16910 with a 0.12% increase [19][20] - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase [22][25] - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20750 [26][28] - **Alumina**: There is an obvious supply surplus. The trend strength is - 1 [26][28] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [26][28] - **Nickel**: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,990 [29][34] - **Stainless Steel**: It has a short - term low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 12,850 [29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The inventory reduction is limited, and it is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the upside space. The trend strength is - 1 [38][41] - **Polysilicon**: The upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be monitored. The trend strength is - 1 [39][41] - **Iron Ore**: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of I2601 was 790.5 with a 1.93% increase [42] - **Rebar**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.55% increase [44][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of HC2510 was 3,385 with a 0.83% increase [45][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disturbances lead to a wide - range intraday oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [48][50] - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disturbances lead to a wide - range intraday oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [48][50] - **Coke**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of J2601 was 1672.5 with a 0.2% increase [51] - **Coking Coal**: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of JM2601 was 1175 with a 1.8% increase [51] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [53][56] - **Para - Xylene**: The supply - demand is still in a tight balance, and it is in a high - level oscillating market [59] - **PTA**: The trend is weaker than expected. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG [59] - **MEG**: A positive spread arbitrage on the monthly difference is suggested, with limited upside space [59] Others - **LPG**: The supply - demand remains loose, and it has a short - term weak oscillation [5] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand tightens, and the spot price is at a high level [5] - **PVC**: The trend still faces pressure [5] - **Fuel Oil**: The price continued to decline at night and remains weak in the short term [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The decline in the domestic market continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has temporarily stabilized [5] - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material support weakens, and it oscillates weakly [5] - **Bottle Chip**: The raw material support weakens, and it oscillates weakly [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It oscillates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [5] - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates weakly [5] - **Palm Oil**: There is no new fundamental driver, and it is waiting for a correction [5] - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter is suspended, and it is in a correction [5] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans are stable, and the Dalian soybean meal oscillates [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: It oscillates [5] - **Corn**: It oscillates [5] - **Sugar**: It has a narrow - range consolidation [5] - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the new crop situation, and the futures price oscillates strongly [5] - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - end is weak [5] - **Live Pig**: With the new delivery warehouse announcement, there is a basis market for the near - month contract [5] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [5]