商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20251215 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.534 | 5. 586 | -52 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5,540 | 5.520 | +20 | | | | 成交量(手) | 482, 936 | 833.491 | -350, 555 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 204. 480 | 204. 699 | -219 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 198, 979 | 198, 115 | +864 | | | | 前20名会员净持仓(手) | -18, 685 | -13, 750 | -4.935 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 银星-期货主力 | 66 | 14 | +52 | | | | 金鱼-期货主力(非标) | -884 | -936 | +52 | | | 月差 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The destocking of lithium carbonate continues, but spot trading is weak, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 95,920 yuan, down 1,060 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 2605 contract is 97,720 yuan, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the two contracts have different degrees of change. The warehouse receipt volume is 15,050 lots, an increase of 300 lots from the previous day [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 is -1,420 yuan, the basis of spot - 2605 is -3,220 yuan, the basis of 2601 - 2605 is -1,800 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,500 yuan, and the difference between spot and CIF is 18,471 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,220 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,605 yuan, up 15 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,500 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan from the previous day. The prices of other lithium salts and related products also have different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 94,581 yuan/ton, up 1,022 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 94,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 92,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton [2] - As of December 12th, the inventory of lithium ore spot in ports and warehouses of 30 sample lithium ore traders is 165,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week, and the salable inventory is 114,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, which is in a neutral state [3]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 生猪：冬至需求预期落地，仓单增量 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11430 | | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11950 | | 50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12210 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11485 | | 45 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11325 | | 105 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | 80 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 甲醇：震荡反弹 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,067 | 2,074 | - 7 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,057 | 2,077 | -20 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 1,012,146 | 975,203 | 36943 | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 482,389 | 558,910 | -76521 | | 期货市场 | | 仓单 ...

沥青：委内局势再升温， 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,962 | 0.07% | 2,963 | 0.03% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,980 | 0.24% | 2,981 | 0.03% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 311,581 | 55,579 | 214,417 | 6,116 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 89,676 | 18,263 | 95,747 | 1,889 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54600 | 47920 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2]. - In the US solar market, there was a significant increase in new PV installations in Q3 2025, but issues like component shortages and labor shortages limited market expansion [2]. - The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2601 closing price is 8,435 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan from T - 5 and 760 yuan from T - 22 [2]. - Si2601 trading volume is 228,177 lots, with a decrease compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - Si2601 open interest is 110,824 lots, down significantly from T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - PS2605 closing price is 57,190 yuan/ton, up 1,680 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - PS2605 trading volume is 314,687 lots, showing an increase from T - 5 [2]. - PS2605 open interest is 126,436 lots, up 28,445 lots from T - 5 [2]. Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium against different benchmarks shows various changes over different time periods [2]. - Polysilicon's spot premium against N - type recycled material is - 3765 yuan/ton [2]. Prices - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan from T - 5 [2]. - Yunnan Si4210 price is 10000 yuan/ton, remaining stable [2]. - Polysilicon - N - type recycled material price is 52300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from T - 22 [2]. Profits - Silicon factory profit for Xinjiang new - standard 553 is - 2984.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [2]. - Silicon factory profit for Yunnan new - standard 553 is - 4096 yuan/ton, also showing a decline [2]. - Polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.6 yuan from T - 5 [2]. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) is 56.1 tons, up 0.3 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon enterprise inventory is 18.7 tons, up 0.45 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 74.8 tons, up 0.75 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Industrial silicon futures warehouse - receipt inventory is 4.3 tons, up 0.7 tons from T - 5 [2]. - Polysilicon factory inventory is 29.3 tons, up 0.2 tons from T - 5 [2]. Raw Material Costs - Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan show different trends, with Yunnan's price down 20 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia have different changes, with Ningxia's price up 60 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Petroleum coke prices in Maoming and Yangzi have some changes, with Yangzi's price up 100 yuan/ton from T - 22 [2]. - Electrode prices remain stable [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In Q3 2025, the US added 11.7GW of new PV installations, a 20% year - on - year and 49% quarter - on - quarter increase [2]. - By Q3 2025, solar energy accounted for 58% of the US grid's new power - generation capacity, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 30GW [2]. - Issues such as PV component shortages, delivery delays, and labor shortages in Q3 2025 restricted market expansion [2]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. - The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, also indicating a neutral view [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 丙烯：短期窄幅调整 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,070 | -3.55% | 4,154 | 2.06% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 3,986 | -3.79% | 4,037 | 1.28% | | | PL2601 | 5,961 | 0.18% | 6,004 | 0.72% | | | PL2602 | 5,730 | -0.95% | 5,821 | 1.59% | | | PL2603 | 5,675 | -1.29% | 5,772 | 1.71% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 96,238 | 39211 | 34,725 | -6179 | | 持仓&成交 | P ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 期货研究 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 10,720 | 10,710 | 10 -31953 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 123,845 | 155,798 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 89,834 | 86,990 | 2844 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 661,588 | 831,987 | -170399 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -70 | -60 | -10 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | （民营） | -110 | -100 | -10 | | 现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - LLDPE shows a unilateral decline with limited strengthening of the basis. The futures market is under pressure, and the spot market follows the negative feedback of the futures market. The supply - demand situation faces pressure from high - capacity and weakening demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2601 contract had a closing price of 6486, a daily decline of 0.73%, a trading volume of 567446, and an open - interest change of 252592 [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The 01 - contract basis was 4 compared to - 14 the previous day, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 10 compared to - 24 the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6490 yuan/ton (6520 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6600 yuan/ton (6650 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6500 yuan/ton (6550 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market is under pressure and declines. Upstream companies offered price discounts for shipments last week. Due to the weakening demand, the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor, and the execution of pre - sold orders from upstream is postponed. The spot price follows the negative feedback of the futures market, the basis is under pressure, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has stopped. The offers from the Middle East and the United States have decreased in quantity, and the prices are at a premium compared to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the United States are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 of 2026 [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuates, and the monomer segment is weakly stable. The supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE futures market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand is weakening, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods has weakened. Upstream companies offer price discounts at the end of the year, and the factory inventory is slightly reduced, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan for December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high - capacity and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The demand for PX is seasonally weakening, but the supply remains tight, and it is in a high - level volatile market; PTA is also in a high - level volatile market; for MEG, the unplanned load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below [1]. - For PX, the demand is comprehensively weakening, and one should be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the unexpected decline in polyester operation rate, and avoid chasing high prices. For PTA, although the cost - end PX supply is tight, the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space of PTA is limited. For MEG, the price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, so do not chase short positions in the 01 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Dynamics - Asian xylene prices declined, with Platts assessing Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea at 830.67 dollars/ton and 809.67 dollars/ton respectively on December 12, both down 5 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [4]. - South Korean PX exports to the US increased significantly in early December, and more shipments are expected in the coming months, which may push up prices and tighten the regional supply. About 45,000 tons of PX cargo was loaded to the US in early December, while there was no PX export to the US in November, and the export from January to October was 154,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [6]. - South Korea's GS Caltex shut down its No. 3 xylene series with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons on December 8 due to poor economic performance, and the restart date is undetermined [6]. Futures and Spot Prices | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6758 | 4674 | 3627 | 6074 | 437.6 | | Change | - 58 | 10 | 28 | - 48 | - 2.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.78% | - 0.78% | - 0.48% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 58 | - 60 | - 84 | - 54 | - 0.4 | | Month Spread (Change) | 4 | - 2 | 24 | 16 | 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 830.67 dollars/ton | 4610 yuan/ton | 3602 yuan/ton | 548.75 dollars/ton | 62.09 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5 dollars/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | - 5.5 dollars/ton | 0.1 dollars/barrel | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 281.42 dollars/ton | 185.2 yuan/ton | 256.44 yuan/ton | 123.25 yuan/ton | - 4.23 dollars/ton | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 9.25 dollars/ton | 15.86 yuan/ton | - 14.97 yuan/ton | 6.95 yuan/ton | 0.11 dollars/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The demand is comprehensively weakening. The polyester industry chain profits continue to concentrate on the PX link, but the weakening demand limits the upside space. The blending - into - gasoline logic has ended. The domestic operation rate is 88.1% (- 0.1%), with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian operation rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The PXN is 282 dollars/ton and continues to expand. Operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [7]. - **PTA**: The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space is limited. The PTA capacity is generally in excess, and the processing fee is continuously compressed. Exit the profit of the 01 contract processing fee compression position. Operate the single - side position in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [8]. - **MEG**: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and some factories have shut down due to business reasons. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. The low profit has led to a large - scale decline in the operation enthusiasm of facilities. The ethylene - based facilities, such as Sanjiang, have reduced the load, and some facilities are shut down. The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet has slightly improved [8].