Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - **News**: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20]

2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：现货成交有所回暖，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：弱势震荡格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪降温，关注上游减产预期 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 27 日 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,370 | 60 | 40 | -2,070 | -3,990 | -2,410 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 1 ...

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: JH meeting Powell signaled dovish stance [2] - Silver: Approaching previous high [2] - Copper: Decline in both domestic and overseas inventories, price remains firm [2] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2] - Lead: Decline in inventory supports price [2] - Tin: Trading within a range [2] - Aluminum: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Alumina: Center of price moving down [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillating [2] - Stainless Steel: Short - term low - level oscillation [2] Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Performance**: Comex gold 2510 rose 1.00% to 3417.20, London gold spot rose 0.95% to 3369.82; Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, London silver spot rose 1.85% to 38.801 [5] - **Inventory**: SPDR gold ETF held 956.77 tons, SLV silver ETF held 15,288.82 tons (previous day) [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [8] Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,190, down 0.63%, night - session price rose 0.29% to 79420; LME copper 3M electronic disk rose 0.38% to 9,847 [10] - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, LME copper inventory decreased by 975 tons to 155,000 tons [10] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [12] Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22270, down 0.56%; LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 1.39% to 2805.5 [13] - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 1172 tons to 36366 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2550 tons to 65525 tons [13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930, up 0.50%; LME lead 3M electronic disk rose 1.12% to 1992 [16] - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 747 tons to 58201 tons, LME lead inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 271550 tons [16] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [16] Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,930, down 0.21%; LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 1.11% to 33,845 [19] - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons to 7,053 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons to 1,785 tons [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20715, down 55; Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3069, up 226; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20265, down 65 [25] - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 60.30 million tons, unchanged [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 0, alumina - 1, and cast aluminum alloy 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370, up 60; stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840, down 40 [28] - **Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including production suspensions and regulatory actions [28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers insights into multiple energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It analyzes the supply - demand balance, price trends, and market conditions of each commodity, providing investment suggestions such as positive spreads, short - term or mid - term trading strategies, and warnings about potential risks [2][8][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with a short - term upward trend. Positive spreads are recommended, and there are suggestions like long PTA and short PX (11 contract). The price of PX increased on the 26th, and there are uncertainties in the Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan [4][6][8] - **PTA**: With the new Sanfangxiang PTA device put into production and the Dushan Energy device under maintenance, positive spreads are recommended. The demand is in a seasonal improvement phase [4][8][9] - **MEG**: The short - term trend is upward, and 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. However, there is significant pressure above 4600. Import arrivals are low, and port inventories are decreasing [4][9] 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to fluctuate. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations have an impact on the market [10][11][13] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are neutral, and it follows the macro - market. In the short - term, it is strong, and in the mid - term, it fluctuates within a range. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations support the price [14][16] 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic asphalt production in September is expected to increase, and the factory and social inventories have different trends [17][31] 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is in a range - bound state. The demand is improving, mainly due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the short - term, and the inventory is relatively low [34][35] 3.6 PP - PP is in a mid - term oscillating market. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, the supply pressure will increase in the future [38][39] 3.7 Caustic Soda - The near - month warehouse receipts and exports suppress the caustic soda market. The domestic demand is stable, but the short - term pressure from warehouse receipts and weak exports needs attention [42][43] 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to fluctuate. The market is divided, with high port inventories and weak demand suppressing the price. Attention should be paid to inventory data and downstream demand [46][47] 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market price is under pressure, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be digested [50][51] 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in a short - term weak and mid - term oscillating pattern. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of some devices and the impact of freight [53][55] 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a short - term weak state. After the export policy is determined, the market speculation weakens. In the mid - term, the price may fluctuate due to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [59][62] 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the mid - term. The downstream raw material inventory is at a medium - high level, and the short - term market is oscillating [63][64] 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is expected to be weakly stable and oscillating, with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises [65] 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The cost of crude oil is weakening. There are changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and spreads. Attention should be paid to the PDH and MTBE operating rates [67] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and it oscillates in the short - term [67] 3.15 PVC - PVC still faces pressure. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export price is under competitive pressure [75] 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: New warehouse receipts have emerged, and the market has turned bearish [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has reversed and declined, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [78] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may continue to have weak oscillations. The futures prices have declined, and the freight rates of relevant routes have decreased [80]

2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲顶前高 | 3 | | 铜：内外库存减少，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：重心下移 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：窄幅区间震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：短线低位震荡 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：现货成交有所回暖，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：弱势震荡格局 | 18 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪降温，关注上游减产预期 | 18 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 26 | | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 | 28 | | P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamentals have no new drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with a sideways consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: CBOT soybeans are strong while DCE soybean meal is weak. Beware of a rebound after an over - decline [2][12] - Soybean: Affected by the atmosphere of the soybean market, it is weak in the short term [2][12] - Corn: It is moving sideways [2][15] - Sugar: Maintain the thinking of range consolidation [2][19] - Cotton: Pay attention to the situation of new crops and the influence of external market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: The sentiment for the distant end is weak [2][29] - Hogs: The spot performance is below expectations. Short at high prices [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][36] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton (-0.67%), and night - session was 9,488 yuan/ton (+0.68%); soybean oil's daily - session was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00%), and night - session was 8,402 yuan/ton (-1.57%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,470 yuan/ton (-150); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton (+130) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 314 yuan/ton [4] Macro and Industry News - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% MoM, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% MoM, and production decreased by 1.21% MoM [5] - Malaysia is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [7] - The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from a 19% tariff [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3974 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and night - session was 3961 yuan/ton (-0.68%); DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - session was 3081 yuan/ton (-0.93%), and night - session was 3047 yuan/ton (-1.61%) [12] - Spot: Shandong's soybean meal (43%) was 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 to flat compared to the previous day [12] - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 7.95 million tons/day, and the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week [12] Macro and Industry News - On August 26, CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher as Chinese trade representatives were to visit the US, but the expected bumper harvest of US soybeans limited the upside [14] Trend Intensity - Soybean meal trend intensity: 0; soybean trend intensity: 0 [14] Corn Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,210 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2511's daily - session was 2,158 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 2,157 yuan/ton (-0.05%) [16] - Spot: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,250 yuan/ton (0); Guangdong Shekou was 2,360 yuan/ton (0) [16] Macro and Industry News - Northern corn collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou's prices increased by 10 yuan/ton; Northeast corn prices were weak, and North China's prices declined [17] Trend Intensity - Corn trend intensity: 0 [18] Sugar Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main contract price was 5632 yuan/ton (-56) [19] - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5980 yuan/ton (0) [19] Macro and Industry News - Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased; China's July sugar imports were 740,000 tons (+320,000 tons) [19] Trend Intensity - Sugar trend intensity: 0 [22] Cotton Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton (-0.14%), and night - session was 14085 yuan/ton (-0.11%); ICE cotton 12 was 66.67 cents/lb (-1.05%) [23] - Spot: Northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,342 yuan/ton (-20); Southern Xinjiang's was 15,033 yuan/ton (-20) [23] Macro and Industry News - Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable; the cotton yarn market was okay, but the fabric market improved slightly [24] Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity: 0 [27] Eggs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,916 yuan/500 kg (-1.32%); Egg 2601 was 3,376 yuan/500 kg (-0.53%) [29] - Spot: Liaoning's spot price was 3.20 yuan/jin; Hebei's was 2.69 yuan/jin [29] Trend Intensity - Egg trend intensity: 0 [29] Hogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Hog 2509's closing price was 13,665 yuan/ton (-130); Hog 2511 was 13,860 yuan/ton (-50); Hog 2601 was 14,200 yuan/ton (-40) [32] - Spot: Henan's spot price was 13,730 yuan/ton (-50); Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton (+50); Guangdong's was 14,940 yuan/ton (-200) [32] Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and retail farmers were forced to hold back pigs. Demand growth was limited. Short the November contract at high prices; the September contract still had a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost [34] Trend Intensity - Hog trend intensity: -1 [33] Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK510's closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton (+1.20%); PK511 was 7,834 yuan/ton (+0.72%) [36] - Spot: Liaoning's 308 common peanuts were 8,000 yuan/ton (0); Henan's Baisha common peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (0) [36] Spot Market Focus - In Henan, the supply was limited due to rain, and inquiries increased; new peanuts in Jilin were growing well and were expected to be listed in mid - to late September [37] Trend Intensity - Peanut trend intensity: 0 [38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overnight, US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may adjust and fluctuate; Dalian soybean futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - On August 25, CBOT soybean futures declined due to weakened expectations of Chinese demand and the evaluation of US refineries' biodiesel exemption applications. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate as of August 25 was 69%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3,992 yuan/ton during the day session, up 3 yuan (+0.08%), and 3,991 yuan/ton at night, down 7 yuan (-0.18%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,117 yuan/ton during the day session, up 23 yuan (+0.74%), and 3,112 yuan/ton at night, up 2 yuan (+0.06%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1,047.75 cents/bushel, down 10.5 cents (-0.99%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 290.6 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars (-0.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3,080 - 3,130 yuan/ton, flat to up 20 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 3,000 - 3,080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or flat; in South China, it was 3,030 - 3,050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading day, compared to 13.1 million tons two trading days ago; the inventory was not available, compared to 97.4 million tons two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On August 25, CBOT soybean futures declined as industry insiders lost confidence in Chinese buyers purchasing US soybeans. The US - China trade tension and the evaluation of US refineries' biodiesel exemption applications contributed to the decline [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture's crop weekly report showed that as of August 25, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 was 0, indicating neutrality for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive set-up, trend is on the stronger side [2][7] - PTA: Positive set-up with the commissioning of Sanfangxiang's new facility [2][8] - MEG: Trend is on the stronger side [2][7][8] Core Views - PX is expected to be short-term strong due to tight supply and demand, with polyester demand gradually recovering in the peak season [7] - PTA's unilateral price is on the stronger side, with a de-stocking pattern in August and improving demand seasonally [8] - MEG is short-term strong, suitable for 9 - 1 positive set-up, but faces supply pressure on the 01 contract in October [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Asian ICE 10 - month Brent crude futures rose, but PX's increase was limited by weak Chinese PX and PTA futures. Sanfangxiang launched a new 150 -万吨/year PTA line, and the PX - naphtha spread narrowed on August 25 [4] - PTA: A 320 -万吨 PTA new facility's second line produced products over the weekend, and its load is being adjusted [6] - MEG: The planned arrival volume at major ports from August 25 - 31 is about 5.4 million tons [6] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on August 25 were weak, with an average sales rate of about 40%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were also weak, with an average sales rate of 45% [6][7] Futures and Spot Data - Futures: PX, MEG had price increases, while PTA, PF, and SC had price decreases. The price differences between months also showed various changes [3] - Spot: PX, MEG, and naphtha MOPJ had price increases, while PTA and Dated Brent had price decreases. The processing fees also changed accordingly [3] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: Go long on pull - backs, focus on the 11 - 1 positive set - up. The restart of Fuhai Chuang's PX devices is postponed to September [7] - PTA: Go long on pull - backs, focus on basis and monthly spread positive set - up, and long PTA short PX (11 contract). Pay attention to potential maintenance plans of Xin凤鸣 [8] - MEG: Short - term positive set - up for 9 - 1, but there is significant pressure above 4600. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse set - up due to potential supply increase in October [8]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 26 日 铝：波动收敛 氧化铝：小幅下跌 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20770 | 140 | 170 | રૂર્ણ | 1185 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20740 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 2622 146160 | 0 11586 | 34 36794 | 33 43986 | 204 30509 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | | 75348 | | | | | 电解铝 | | 248343 | 11056 | | -20199 | ୧୧୧ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 26, 2025, including strong - side oscillations for stock index futures, gold, and crude oil futures, and weak - side oscillations for steel rebar, iron ore, glass, soda ash, and soybean meal futures [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4550 and 4600 points and support levels at 4475 and 4450 points; IH2509 has resistance at 3040 and 3060 points and support at 2992 and 2975 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7000 and 7100 points and support at 6910 and 6860 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7550 and 7600 points and support at 7412 and 7362 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025. T2512 has support levels at 107.73 and 107.53 yuan and resistance levels at 108.09 and 108.17 yuan; TL2512 has support at 116.1 and 115.6 yuan and resistance at 117.5 and 117.8 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: The gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance levels at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram and support levels at 776.8 and 773.8 yuan/gram. The silver futures contract AG2510 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 9281 and 9205 yuan/kg and resistance at 9404 and 9442 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 80000 and 80200 yuan/ton and support at 79500 and 79200 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 20630 and 20600 yuan/ton and resistance at 20770 and 20840 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support levels at 3139 and 3115 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3216 and 3233 yuan/ton. Zinc futures contract ZN2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 22200 and 22110 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22400 and 22480 yuan/ton. Nickel futures contract NI2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 120700 and 121200 yuan/ton and support at 120000 and 119500 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Industrial Product Futures**: Industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 8780 and 8910 yuan/ton and support at 8520 and 8440 yuan/ton. Polysilicon futures contract PS2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton and resistance at 52200 and 53700 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate futures contract LC2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 77800 and 76900 yuan/ton and resistance at 81000 and 81600 yuan/ton. Steel rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3119 and 3104 yuan/ton and resistance at 3148 and 3169 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3361 and 3349 yuan/ton and resistance at 3406 and 3423 yuan/ton. Iron ore futures contract I2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 777 and 771 yuan/ton, with resistance at 789 and 795 yuan/ton. Coking coal futures contract JM2601 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with resistance at 1227 and 1251 yuan/ton and support at 1203 and 1164 yuan/ton. Glass futures contract FG601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1167 and 1156 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1191 and 1206 yuan/ton. Soda ash futures contract SA601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1318 and 1300 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1347 and 1365 yuan/ton. Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations and attack resistance at 499 and 504 yuan/barrel, with support at 494 and 491 yuan/barrel. PVC futures contract V2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 5000 and 4984 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5077 and 5089 yuan/ton. Soybean meal futures contract M2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 3088 and 3081 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3122 and 3135 yuan/ton [3][4][5]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - China has introduced policies in multiple fields, including carbon market construction, financial support for forestry, and customs port opening. Shanghai has launched a series of real - estate policies. The US has made a series of political and economic decisions, such as personnel changes, trade tariff adjustments, and the inclusion of certain minerals in the key minerals list. Major investment banks have different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts [8][9][10]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Henan coking enterprises plan to implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated cut of 20 - 35%. On August 25, international precious - metal futures generally closed down, while crude - oil futures rose due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory decline. The RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and non - US currency exchange rates also showed certain fluctuations [11][12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 25, the four major stock - index futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day moving averages of the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed obvious long - position arrangements, with obvious upward trends in the medium - term, medium - short - term, and short - term. It is expected that before the end of August, the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM will continue to attack key resistance levels [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 25, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The central bank carried out 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations on that day, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan and 3000 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that on August 26, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations [39][40][45]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On August 25, the gold and silver futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong - side and wide - range oscillations respectively [45][52][53]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On August 25, the copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures contracts showed different degrees of upward oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these base - metal futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show different trends such as oscillation consolidation, weak - side oscillations, etc. [58][62][70]. - **Industrial Product Futures**: On August 25, the industrial - silicon, polysilicon, lithium - carbonate, steel - rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron - ore, coking - coal, glass, soda - ash, crude - oil, PVC, and soybean - meal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these industrial - product futures will have wide - range oscillations or strong - side/weak - side oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show corresponding trends [79][83][89].