1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Gold: Interest rates were cut as expected [2][4]. - Silver: Adjusting at a high level [2][4]. - Copper: The long - term driving logic remains, and the price decline is limited [2][8]. - Zinc: Domestic inventory is continuously decreasing [2][11]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][16]. - Aluminum: Macroeconomic disturbances are increasing [2][19]. - Alumina: Continuously monitor production capacity cuts [2][19]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Fluctuating at a high level [2][19]. - Platinum: Breaking through the previous high and starting to make up for lost ground [2][22]. - Palladium: ETF holdings have increased significantly, and it is expected to hit the previous high [2][22]. - Nickel: The structural surplus has changed, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2][26]. - Stainless steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are fluctuating at a low level [2][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, etc. showed different degrees of increase, and trading volumes and positions also changed. ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - **News**: Trump prefers to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chairman; China's November new social financing, new RMB loans, and M2 - M1 scissors - gap data are released; multiple Chinese ministries respond to the Central Economic Work Conference [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [7]. Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and other products had significant price fluctuations, and trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventory data also changed [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [7]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper had different trends, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed. China's November copper - related import data and Chile's copper - related export and production data are released [8][10]. - **News**: The Chinese central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools; Trump hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year; the US is negotiating to provide over $1 billion for key mineral and railway projects in Central Africa [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [10]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc changed, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **News**: Three Chinese ministries will strengthen business - finance cooperation to boost consumption [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Strongly bullish [11]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead decreased slightly, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed [14]. - **News**: The Chinese central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools; Trump hopes the interest rate will be 1% or lower in a year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral [14]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin showed different trends, and trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads all changed. Spot and industrial chain prices also increased [16]. - **News**: Trump prefers to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chairman; China's November new social financing, new RMB loans, and M2 - M1 scissors - gap data are released; multiple Chinese ministries respond to the Central Economic Work Conference [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Bearish [18]. Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory, and price spreads of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all changed. Data on related premiums, processing fees, and corporate profits are also updated [19]. - **News**: Global monetary policy is at a critical turning point; the Fed's asset - liability purchase may push up inflation in 2026 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum is neutral, Alumina is bearish, and Cast Aluminum Alloy is neutral [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products increased, and trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and price spreads all changed [22]. - **News**: Multiple international events such as the US - Mexico water resource agreement and Zelensky's decision to abandon NATO membership are reported [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are strongly bullish [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel had different trends, and industrial chain - related prices, profits, and spreads all changed [26]. - **News**: There are multiple events in Indonesia related to nickel production, including government sanctions, policy changes, and production restrictions. The Fed has dovish remarks, and China will implement export license management for some steel products [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are neutral [30].

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：长期驱动逻辑仍存，价格回落有限 | 5 | | 锌：国内持续去库 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：宏观扰动增加 | 12 | | 氧化铝：持续关注产能减产 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 12 | | 铂：突破前高开启补涨 | 14 | | 钯：ETF增持明显，有望冲击前高 | 14 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库延续但现货成交疲软，区间震荡延续 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保进度 | 20 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：市场讯息扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：主产区工厂检修，价格走势坚挺 | 25 | | 锰硅：港口矿报价坚挺，盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].

Report Overview - Date: December 15, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Research Area: Green Finance and New Energy Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Nickel: Excess shows a structural shift, with attention on Indonesian policy risks [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: De - stocking continues, but spot trading is weak, and range - bound oscillations persist [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Monitor the environmental protection progress in Xinjiang [2][12] - Polysilicon: The futures market oscillates at high levels [2][12] Detailed Summaries by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data -沪镍主力收盘价115,590元，较前一交易日跌280元；不锈钢主力收盘价12,565元，涨65元 [4] - 1进口镍价格116,000元，降700元；俄镍升贴水600元，不变 [4] News - 印尼林业工作组接管超148公顷镍矿区，预计月影响镍矿产量约600金属吨 [4] - 中国暂停对俄进口铜和镍非官方补贴 [5] - 印尼对190家采矿公司制裁，提交索赔计划可取消 [5][6] - 印尼规范矿山RKAB审批程序 [6] - 特朗普宣称或对中国额外征100%关税并管制软件出口 [6] - 印尼暂停发放新冶炼许可证 [7] - 印尼园区安全检查影响镍湿法项目产量，12月约6000镍金属吨 [7] - 纽约联储主席等发表鸽派言论，提升12月降息概率 [7] - 中国对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理 [7] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - 2601合约收盘价95,920元，跌1,060元；成交量47,866手，降7,332手 [9] - 现货-2601为 - 1,420元，电池级碳酸锂94,500元，涨1,000元 [9] News - SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价涨，均价9.45万元/吨 [10] - 30家样本锂矿贸易商库存增，可售库存11.4万吨 [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Si2601收盘价8,435元，涨150元；PS2605收盘价57,190元，涨1,425元 [12] - 工业硅社会库存56.1万吨，企业库存18.7万吨 [12] - 多晶硅厂家库存29.3万吨，企业利润8.0元/千克 [12] News - 2025年Q3美国新增光伏装机11.7GW，同比增20%、环比增49%，但行业有扩张抑制因素 [12][13][14] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean oil: There is insufficient driving force from US soybeans, and soybean oil will mainly fluctuate [2]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment [2]. - Soybean: Adjustment and fluctuation [2]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot market [2]. - Sugar: Consolidation at a low level [2]. - Cotton: Fluctuating strongly, pay attention to downstream demand [2]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the purchases of oil mills [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract was 8,608 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.55%, and 8,496 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1.30%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract was 8,240 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.34%, and 7,954 yuan/ton during the night session, down 3.47% [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the same period last month. In the 2025/26 fiscal year, global soybean exports are expected to increase, mainly driven by Brazil. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 110 million tons, up 6.7% from 2024/25. US soybean exports are expected to be 43 million tons, down 14% from 2024/25 [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2601 was 4,138 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.70%, and 4,122 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.70%. The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,770 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.58%, and 2,765 yuan/ton during the night session, down 0.29% [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 12, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. Traders were worried about the slowdown in US soybean export demand and the upcoming Brazilian soybean harvest. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed that private exporters sold 132,000 tons of US soybeans to China [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity: -1; soybean trend intensity: -1 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of C2601 was 2,242 yuan/ton, up 0.22% during the day session and unchanged during the night session. The closing price of C2603 was 2,233 yuan/ton, down 0.04% during the day session and up 0.04% during the night session [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the container first - class grain port price remained flat. The price of imported sorghum and barley in Guangdong was reported [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity: 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 15.1 cents/pound, up 0.25. The mainstream spot price was 5,380 yuan/ton, down 40. The futures main contract price was 5,214 yuan/ton, down 31 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of the end of November, India's sugar production in the 25/26 fiscal year increased by 49.8% year - on - year. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of November increased by 9% year - on - year, and exports in November decreased by 90,000 tons year - on - year. China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, an increase of 210,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity: -1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.07%, and 13,905 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.40%. The closing price of CY2603 was 19,980 yuan/ton during the day session, down 0.12%, and 20,055 yuan/ton during the night session, up 0.38% [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable. The price of pure cotton yarn was generally stable, and some spinning mills reduced prices to clear inventory. ICE cotton futures fell slightly, and US cotton exports were still poor [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity: 0 [28]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton, down 60. The closing price of PK601 was 8,108 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the closing price of PK603 was 8,080 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [30]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha common peanuts were priced at 3.7 - 3.85, and Kaifeng large peanuts were priced at 3.8 - 3.9. In Jilin, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Liaoning, 308 common peanuts were priced at 4.7 - 4.8. In Shandong, the supply was limited, and the price was basically stable [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity: 0 [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents data on precious metals, including gold and silver, and also mentions some macro - and industry - related news. Gold is expected to see an on - schedule interest rate cut, while silver is in a high - level adjustment phase. The trend intensity for both gold and silver is neutral [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price and Performance**: - Gold: The closing prices of various gold products showed increases, such as the 1.33% increase in the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 and 0.48% in Comex Gold 2602. Silver prices had mixed performance, with some showing increases and others decreases, like the 2.81% increase in Shanghai Silver 2602 and - 2.95% in Comex Silver 2602 [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of gold and silver products also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 increased by 49,026 compared to the previous day, and the open interest of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 8,735 [1]. - ETF and Inventory: The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF changed, and the inventories of gold and silver in different markets also had corresponding adjustments, such as a 5,986 increase in Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces) [1]. - Spread: The spreads between different gold and silver products also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold increased by 605.72 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of major currencies also changed, such as a - 0.10% change in the US dollar against the offshore RMB [1]. Macro and Industry News - Trump is inclined to appoint Warsh or Hassett as the Fed Chair and says the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rate issues [1][3]. - In November, China's new social financing reached 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [3]. - Multiple Chinese ministries responded to the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank will use various monetary policy tools flexibly; the NDRC will take practical measures to boost consumption; the Ministry of Finance will make good use of government bond funds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [3]. - He Lifeng emphasizes preventing "explosive risks" in 2026 [3]. - Han Wenxiu says that next year, incremental policies will be introduced according to the situation to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and both exports and imports will be increased [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Report Highlights Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, focusing on various economic data releases and policy decisions that could impact the futures market, including domestic and international macro - economic indicators, central bank interest rate decisions, and employment data [2][5][7] Summary by Directory December 15th - **70 Cities' Residential Sales Price Report**: National Bureau of Statistics to release November report at 09:30 [4] - **National Economic Situation Press Conference**: Expected November industrial added - value growth of 5.0% (previous 4.9%), 1 - 11 cumulative urban fixed - asset investment decline of 2.3% (1 - 10 cumulative decline of 1.7%), November social consumption retail growth of 2.8% (previous 2.9%), and November survey unemployment rate of 5.1%. Data may mildly affect futures prices [5] - **11th Month Energy Production Report**: National Energy Administration to release report at 10:00, with impact on related futures prices [6] - **11th Month Main Industrial Product Output**: National Bureau of Statistics to release data on steel, etc. at 10:00, affecting industrial futures prices [8] - **US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index**: Expected value of 10.5 (previous 18.7) at 21:30 [9] December 16th - **Eurozone December SPGI Manufacturing PMI Initial Value**: Expected value of 49.9 (previous 49.6) at 17:00 [10] - **Germany December IFO Business Climate Index**: Expected value of 40 (previous 38.5) at 17:00 [11] - **US November Non - Farm Payroll Report**: Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm employment of 3.5 million (previous 11.9 million in September), unemployment rate of 4.4%. A significant drop may affect precious and industrial metal futures prices [12] - **US October Retail Sales**: Expected monthly rate of 0.2% (same as previous), core retail sales monthly rate of 0.3% (same as previous) at 21:30 [13] - **US November Industrial Output**: Expected monthly rate of 0.1% (same as previous) at 22:15 [14] - **US December SPGI Manufacturing PMI Initial Value**: Expected value of 52.5 (previous 52.2). A slight increase may affect industrial and precious metal futures prices [16] December 17th - **US EIA Crude Inventory Change**: EIA to release data for the week ending December 12 at 23:30. A continued decline may boost crude and related commodity futures prices [17] December 18th - **UK Central Bank Interest Rate Decision**: Expected to cut the benchmark rate from 4.00% to 3.75% at 20:00 [18] - **European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision**: Expected to keep the December benchmark rate unchanged at 21:15, with a press conference by President Lagarde at 21:45 [19] - **US November CPI**: Due to government shutdown, 10 - month data may be included in the 11 - month report, and monthly increase percentage may not be available. Released at 21:30 [20] - **US Initial Jobless Claims**: Expected 24.0 million (previous 23.6 million) at 21:30. A slight increase may affect futures prices [21] - **US December Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index**: Expected value of 2.1 (previous - 1.7) at 21:30 [22] December 19th - **Japanese Central Bank Interest Rate Decision**: Expected to raise the benchmark rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at 11:00, with a press conference by Governor Ueda Kazuo at 14:30 [24] - **US Third - Quarter GDP Final Value**: Expected annualized quarterly rate of 3.0% at 21:30 [25] - **US November PCE Price Index**: Expected annual rate of 2.8% (same as previous in September), core PCE annual rate of 2.8% (same as previous in September) at 21:30 [26] - **US November Existing Home Sales**: Expected annualized total of 414 million (previous 410 million). A slight increase may boost non - ferrous metal futures prices [27] - **Eurozone December Consumer Confidence Index Initial Value**: Expected value of - 14 (previous - 14.2) at 23:00 [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on December 15, 2025, including strong - side or weak - side oscillations, and provides corresponding resistance and support levels [2][3][4][6]. - Analyzes the market performance of various futures contracts on December 12, 2025, and provides a full - year outlook for December 2025 [20][21][22][45][51][57][64]. - Presents relevant macro - economic information and international news that may affect the futures market [8][9][10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly oscillating on December 15, 2025. For example, IF2512 has resistance at 4600 and 4614 points, and support at 4525 and 4511 points [2][27]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2603 and thirty - year TL2603 are expected to have wide - range oscillations on December 15, 2025, with specified resistance and support levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2602 are expected to be strongly oscillating on December 15, 2025, while silver futures AG2602 are expected to be weakly oscillating [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin futures show different trends. For example, copper futures CU2602 are expected to be weakly oscillating on December 15, 2025 [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2601 are expected to be weakly oscillating on December 15, 2025, while fuel oil futures FU2603 are expected to be strongly oscillating [3][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal futures M2605 are expected to have wide - range oscillations on December 15, 2025, and palm oil futures P2601 are expected to be weakly oscillating [7][146][148]. 3.2 Macro - economic Information - Central government departments emphasize financial risk prevention, including local small and medium - sized financial institutions, real estate, and local government debt risks [8]. - China's November financial data shows an increase in RMB loans and social financing scale, and growth in M2, M1, and other indicators [8]. - The central bank will conduct a 6000 - billion - yuan 6 - month - term outright reverse repurchase operation on December 15, 2025, with an increased volume [9]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement fiscal policies next year, including maintaining fiscal deficits and using government bonds [10]. 3.3 International News - The US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries signed an agreement to maintain the safety of the rare - earth supply chain [14]. - Trump signed an executive order to regulate artificial intelligence at the federal level in the US [15]. - Multiple US states sued the federal government over the significant increase in H - 1B visa fees [16]. - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed their views on inflation and interest rates [17]. - Russia's central bank sued the European Central Securities Depository over frozen national assets [17]. - Ukraine and the US held talks on a "peace plan" [17]. 3.4 Market Performance on December 12, 2025 - Stock index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 showed different degrees of increase [20][21][22]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts showing relatively large declines [45]. - Gold futures AU2602 rose, and silver futures AG2602 also showed an upward trend during the day but weakened at night [51][57]. - Copper futures CU2601 rose during the day but fell at night [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical conflicts. The raw material prices remained firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement was cautious, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term as there is no obvious upward or downward driving force [108]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for RU05 within the range of 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contract, and continued observation for cross - variety trading [109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a new monthly high. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 1.5 billion units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year. The full - year automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with latex gloves being the main consumer [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transition technology while continuing to invest in electric vehicles [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,230 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, 173 cents/kg, and 330.8 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 2.45%, 1.23%, and 1.66% [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather in Thailand: The southern part of Thailand has entered the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the rainy season in the northeastern part has ended with lower - than - average temperatures [40]. - Weather in China: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas digested the sentiment of production cuts due to the end of the tapping season, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia affected tapping and factory production, causing raw material prices to rise after a decline [44]. - Raw material spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has decreased, while the spread between Hainan's glue going into the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory has increased [48]. - Upstream processing profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally decreased [51]. - Export data: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with latex having a relatively large increase. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China also decreased significantly [62][65][68][74][75]. - Import data: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline, while imports of Indonesian standard and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: During the week, the production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving up capacity utilization to some extent. However, the overall shipment pace was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control. Tire inventories started to accumulate again [84]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In October 2025, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month but at a slower pace. In November 2025, passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline [89]. - Road transport turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao Port has weakened, and the general trade shipment volume has "recovered" compared to the previous period [97]. - Futures inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.17%. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.87% [105].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：震荡调整；白银：美股AI压力戳破上涨泡沫 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：950-990元/克、13700-15000元/千克 ◆ 黄金本周价格略有上涨，10月FOMC会议联储表态温和，且超预期扩表。我们认为黄金近期价格上涨强度有限，区间震荡概率更大。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.45%，伦敦银回升11.02%。金银比从前周的72.2回落至66.6，10年期TIPS回升至1.93%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.19%（2年期3.52%），美元指数录得98.4。 ◆ 本周白银波动显著放大，最高沪银触及15192元/千克，COMEX白银触及65美元/盎司。本周白银的上 ...