Report Overview - Date: August 22, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Covered Commodities: Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level range; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality; lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations with weekly inventory reduction; industrial silicon should be watched for its upward potential as market news spreads; and attention should be paid to this week's meeting information for polysilicon [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,830 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,795 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 90,715 lots, an increase of 27,039 lots, while the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 99,736 lots, a decrease of 50,000 lots [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various events including potential nickel export suspension from Canada, new nickel - iron production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesian mining policies, production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks, steel mill overhauls in Shandong, and the Indonesian president's crackdown on illegal mining [5][6][7][8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan. The trading volume was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots, and the open interest was 65,157 lots, a decrease of 11,043 lots [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped; weekly production and inventory decreased. SQM adjusted its sales target and was optimistic about price recovery, and Sigma Lithium's production and cost data were reported [13][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate has a trend intensity of 0, suggesting a neutral view [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the PS2511 contract of polysilicon closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan. There are also detailed data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, and inventory [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The project of Qidong Hongjun Heterojunction Battery and Component (Phase I) was publicly announced for acceptance, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan and an annual production capacity of 2GW of HJT double - sided double - glass components [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black series futures, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views on these commodities are as follows: - Iron ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal: All are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9][13][16]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract I2601 was 772.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.46%. The import and domestic spot prices mostly increased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [6]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar contract RB2510, the closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2510, the closing price was 3,375 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.44%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also varied [9]. - **News**: On August 21, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed that the production of rebar decreased by 5.8 tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 9.65 tons. In July 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production year - on - year [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil, indicating a neutral trend [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed small changes. The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased, and the manganese ore price also decreased slightly. The price spreads had different changes [13]. - **News**: On August 21, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon in various regions decreased, and the prices of silicomanganese also decreased. The export and import data of silicomanganese in July 2025 were also provided [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal contract JM2601 was 1147 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan or 1.3%. The closing price of coke contract J2601 was 1664 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan or 0.8%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads changed [16]. - **News**: On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral trend [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different log contracts showed small fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were stable [20]. - **News**: In July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 21, 2025. It anticipates that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures like gold, silver, and others will also have specific trends including strong oscillation, wide - range oscillation, or weak oscillation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4300 and 4330 points and support levels at 4270 and 4244 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures (T2509, TL2509) are likely to have a weak and wide - range oscillation, with T2509 expected to test support levels at 109.95 and 107.91 yuan and resistance levels at 108.12 and 108.19 yuan [2]. - Gold (AU2510) and silver (AG2510) futures are predicted to have a relatively strong oscillation. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 777.3 and 779.5 yuan/gram, with support levels at 775.5 and 773.3 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper (CU2510) futures are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 78400 and 78200 yuan/ton and resistance levels at 78800 and 79000 yuan/ton [3]. - Alumina (AO2601), industrial silicon (SI2511), polycrystalline silicon (PS2511), and other futures have their own expected trends and support/resistance levels [3]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China has a series of policy - related news, such as the promotion of major projects in Tibet, the support for the biomedical industry, and the regulation of PPP projects [7][8]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes show that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with differences in views on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [9]. - The US federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, higher than previous forecasts [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On August 20, 2025, major stock index futures contracts (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) showed a trend of opening slightly lower, then rising after a decline. For example, IF2509 closed at 4270.0 points, up 1.16% [13]. - The A - share market showed a strong rebound in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new ten - year high. The securities sector has performed well since August, and the scale of securities ETFs has increased significantly [15][16]. - For August 2025, different stock index futures contracts are expected to have different trends, such as IF having a relatively strong and wide - range oscillation [18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 20, 2025, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts (T2509, TL2509) opened slightly higher, then declined after a rebound. T2509 closed at 107.855 yuan, down 0.18% [34]. - The central bank conducted 6160 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 20, with a net investment of 4975 billion yuan [35]. - The LPR remained stable in August, in line with market expectations [36]. Commodity Futures - Gold (AU2510) futures closed at 772.68 yuan/gram on August 20, 2025, down 0.35%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [42]. - Silver (AG2510) futures closed at 9042 yuan/kg on August 20, 2025, down 1.86%. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in August and a relatively strong oscillation on August 21 [48]. - Other commodity futures such as copper, alumina, and industrial silicon also have their own trends on August 20 and expected trends for August and August 21 [51][56][59].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Aluminium is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to experience a slight upward trend in a sideways movement, and cast aluminium alloy to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminium [1] - There are expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts by the central bank around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which may drive the LPR quotation to decline [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminium**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 20,535 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 128,168 lots and an open interest of 228,028 lots. The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 2,577 US dollars, up 10 US dollars from T - 1. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 2.93% [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,147 yuan, up 27 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 441,227 lots and an open interest of 176,803 lots [1] - **Aluminium Alloy**: The closing price of the Aluminium Alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan, down 20 yuan from T - 1, with a trading volume of 1,762 lots and an open interest of 7,889 lots [1] Spot Market - **Aluminium**: The spot premium was 20 yuan, the Shanghai Free - Trade Zone Premium was 98 US dollars, and the EU Rotterdam Aluminium Ingot Premium (MB) was 215 US dollars. The pre - baked anode market price was 5,502 yuan [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,263 yuan, the Lianyungang CIF price was 3,275 yuan, and the Australian Alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars [1] - **Aluminium Bauxite**: The price of Australian imported trihydrate bauxite was 42 US dollars, the price of Indonesian imported bauxite was 0 US dollars, and the price of Guinean imported bauxite was 74 US dollars [1] - **Aluminium Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 139 yuan, and the three - location inventory totaled 31,596 tons [1] Macroeconomic News - China's August LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. There are expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts by the central bank around the beginning of the fourth quarter [3] - Trump pressured the Fed, asking Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign, but Cook refused to resign under coercion [3] Trend Intensity - Aluminium trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminium Alloy trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - **Log**: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - **Para - Xylene**: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - **PTA**: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - **Soybean No.1**: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - **Corn**: Will operate weakly. - **Sugar**: Will be strong with fluctuations. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - **Egg**: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - **Live Pig**: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - **Peanut**: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overnight US soybeans slightly increased, rapeseed meal was weak, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate; the soybean No.1 futures may have a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - On August 20, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the Chicago soybean meal market, and traders continued to closely monitor the results of the field inspection in the US Midwest [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 4036 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.25%), and 4024 yuan/ton during the night session, up 2 yuan (+0.05%) [1] - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3160 yuan/ton during the day session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%), and 3145 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%) [1] - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1035.5 cents/bushel, up 2.25 cents (+0.22%) [1] - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 297 dollars/short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.44%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was flat to up 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, ranging from 3080 to 3100 yuan/ton. The spot basis for delivery before August 24 was M2509 - 60, down 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In East China, the basis for September was M2509 + 10, and the basis for October - November 2026 was M2601 + 60, remaining unchanged [1] - In South China, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3050 - 3070 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 9.55 million tons per day, compared to 9.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days [1] - The inventory of soybean meal was 974,000 tons per week, compared to 960,900 tons per week in the previous two trading weeks [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On August 20, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, following the upward trend of the Chicago soybean meal market. Traders continued to closely monitor the results of the field inspection in the US Midwest [3] - On August 19, 2025, US soybean growers wrote to President Donald Trump, urging him to reach a trade agreement with China to ensure an important soybean purchase agreement [3] - The results of the second - day of the highly - watched Midwest crop inspection on August 19 showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than that in 2024, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years [3] - The basis quotation of soybeans shipped to the US Gulf via barges remained basically stable on August 20, after a decline due to insufficient Chinese purchases in the recent period. China has not yet ordered new - crop US soybeans [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, referring only to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures during the day session on the report day [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 21 日 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 鸡蛋：关注老鸡淘汰节奏 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,000 | -0.76 | | -17,274 | -10,672 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,490 | 0.23 | | 9,164 | 3,980 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | -72 | | -82 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -490 | | -485 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.30 | | 3.30 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.64 | | 2.69 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.10 | | 3.10 | | | | 湖北现货价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for manganese - silicon is cold, showing a weak and volatile trend [1] - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5622 and 5600 respectively, down 56 and 52 from the previous trading day; for manganese - silicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5818 and 5836 respectively, down 80 and 78. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also presented [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, down 50; the spot price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2; the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The ferrosilicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 11 futures) is - 272 yuan/ton, up 6; the manganese - silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 01 futures) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 30. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 22 yuan/ton, down 4; that of manganese - silicon 2511 - 2601 is - 18 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety price differences of manganese - silicon 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 and manganese - silicon 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 are 196 and 236 respectively, down 24 and 26 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On August 20th, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon - manganese price at 6017 yuan/ton on the 19th, up 217 yuan/ton from July, with a procurement volume of 11600 tons. Hengyang Steel Pipe set the ferrosilicon price at 6030 yuan/ton, with a volume of 200 tons. Jinshenglan in Hubei set the 75B ferrosilicon procurement price at 5610 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton from August 14th, with a volume of 600 tons [2] - **Import Data**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2743500 tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The reduction in lead inventory supports lead prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,974 dollars/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,123 lots, an increase of 82 lots [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 60,903 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,250 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons [1]. - **Other Data**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -41.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.2 dollars/ton. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -495.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -541.96 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, the yield of the two - year US Treasury bond erased its decline. The US dollar index hit a one - week high and then turned down, and the decline widened after Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign [2]. - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged: the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3% [2]. - The lead trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].