1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for manganese - silicon is cold, showing a weak and volatile trend [1] - The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5622 and 5600 respectively, down 56 and 52 from the previous trading day; for manganese - silicon, the closing prices of 2511 and 2601 contracts are 5818 and 5836 respectively, down 80 and 78. The trading volumes and open interests of different contracts are also presented [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, down 50; the spot price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2; the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The ferrosilicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 11 futures) is - 272 yuan/ton, up 6; the manganese - silicon spot - futures price difference (spot - 01 futures) is - 86 yuan/ton, up 30. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 22 yuan/ton, down 4; that of manganese - silicon 2511 - 2601 is - 18 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety price differences of manganese - silicon 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 and manganese - silicon 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 are 196 and 236 respectively, down 24 and 26 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On August 20th, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The northern and southern quotes of silicon - manganese 6517 also decreased by 50 yuan/ton [2] - **Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon - manganese price at 6017 yuan/ton on the 19th, up 217 yuan/ton from July, with a procurement volume of 11600 tons. Hengyang Steel Pipe set the ferrosilicon price at 6030 yuan/ton, with a volume of 200 tons. Jinshenglan in Hubei set the 75B ferrosilicon procurement price at 5610 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton from August 14th, with a volume of 600 tons [2] - **Import Data**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2743500 tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July last year [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The reduction in lead inventory supports lead prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price and Volume Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,974 dollars/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 38,671 lots, an increase of 11,416 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,123 lots, an increase of 82 lots [1]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 60,903 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; LME lead inventory was 281,100 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,250 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons [1]. - **Other Data**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -41.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.2 dollars/ton. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -495.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.42 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -541.96 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - The Fed meeting minutes were hawkish, the yield of the two - year US Treasury bond erased its decline. The US dollar index hit a one - week high and then turned down, and the decline widened after Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign [2]. - China's August LPR quotes remained unchanged: the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3% [2]. - The lead trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

2025 年 08 月 21 日 短纤：旺季需求临近，震荡偏强 瓶片：下方空间有限，震荡偏强 【趋势强度】 短纤趋势强度：0；瓶片趋势强度：0(仅指报告日的日盘主力合约期价波动情况） 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6420 | 6344 | 76 | PF09-10 | -84 | -88 | ব | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6504 | 6432 | 72 | PF10-11 | 12 | 0 | 12 | | | 短纤2511 | 6492 | 6432 | 60 | PF基差 | -14 | 53 | -67 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 287751 | 300740 | -12989 | 短纤华东现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The game between reality and expectations in the lithium carbonate market is intensifying, leading to increased volatility in the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan; the trading volume was 55,748 lots, and the open interest was 65,157 lots. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan; the trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [1] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,660 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,720 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 60 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 951 US dollars, down 27 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,125 yuan, down 60 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan, unchanged [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - In July, lithium ore imports were 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%. Imports from Australia were 427,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.24%, with an average price of 631.35 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.16% [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has strong fundamental support, and it is advisable to go long during macro pullbacks [1]. - Soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,486 yuan/ton with a -1.06% change, and night - time closing price was 9,560 yuan/ton with a 0.78% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,442 yuan/ton with a -1.31% change, and night - time closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a -0.28% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 9,901 yuan/ton with a 0.03% change, and night - time closing price was 9,782 yuan/ton with a -1.20% change. The Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,497 ringgit/ton with a -0.51% change, and night - time closing price was 4,529 ringgit/ton with a 0.69% change. CBOT soybean oil's daytime closing price was 51.41 cents/pound with a -0.77% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 7,875 to 79,561 lots, and open interest decreased by 26,336 to 97,566 lots; soybean oil's trading volume increased by 14,509 to 97,939 lots, and open interest decreased by 44,957 to 111,062 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 5,695 to 23,619 lots, and open interest decreased by 4,258 to 38,617 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,510 yuan/ton; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 9,830 yuan/ton; Malaysian palm oil FOB price decreased by 5 dollars/ton to 1,110 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 24 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 168 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 71 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 274 yuan/ton (previous trading day) and 210 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,140 yuan/ton and - 1,114 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 68 yuan/ton and - 52 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 73 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton [1]. [Macro and Industry News] - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be limited due to the uniqueness and non - substitutability of Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified products. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the total annual exports. The government will continue to provide assistance through various measures such as the oil palm smallholder replanting financing incentive program [2][3]. - Amspec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month. ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [3]. [Trend Strength] - Palm oil trend strength is 0, and soybean oil trend strength is 0. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the asphalt market is in a state of weak oscillation with a decline in cracking spread. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 0, suggesting a neutral market outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased during the night session, with declines of -0.43% and -0.41% respectively. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 4,236 hands, while that of BU2510 increased by 4,045 hands. The open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - **Spot Market**: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions were 3,530 yuan/ton and 3,720 yuan/ton respectively. The Shandong wholesale price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Yangtze River Delta price remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Indicators**: The refinery operating rate decreased by 2.86% to 35.61%, while the refinery inventory rate remained stable at 25.79%. The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Market Information - **Production Plan**: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt output plan of local refineries is 155.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.5 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons (42.9%) [16]. - **Shipment Volume**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 39.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the East China region [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [16].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, with the sentiment of industrial silicon being boosted and polysilicon's quotation rising and sentiment continuing to be boosted [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both rated as having a trend strength of 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,390 yuan/ton, with a change of -235 yuan from T - 1, -210 yuan from T - 5, and -870 yuan from T - 22; its trading volume is 561,795 lots, and open interest is 279,868 lots [2] - PS2511 closing price is 51,875 yuan/ton, with a change of -385 yuan from T - 1 and 585 yuan from T - 5; its trading volume is 704,931 lots, and open interest is 150,086 lots [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium/discount shows different values when对标ing different grades, such as +900 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si5530, +450 yuan/ton when对标ing East China Si4210, etc [2] Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from T - 1; Yunnan Si4210 is 9850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 47000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] Profit - Silicon factory profit for Xinjiang new standard 553 is - 2676 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3355 yuan/ton; polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.1 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.6 million tons; polysilicon factory inventory is 24.2 million tons [2] Raw Material Cost - The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., show different changes in different regions [2] Other Products in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Chain - The prices and profit situations of products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are also presented, with some showing little change and others having slight price adjustments [2] Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 11000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 1032 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 is 20350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 240 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon was exported to 50 countries/regions, with a total export volume of 74006.174 tons and an average price of 9219.38 yuan/ton, with the unit price decreasing by 75.74 yuan month - on - month. The top ten countries/regions in terms of export volume accounted for 80.51% of the total export volume [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the LPG and propylene markets, stating that the markets are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes. It presents detailed data on futures prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and key industrial chain data, as well as market news and device maintenance plans [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: On August 21, 2025, PG2509 had a closing price of 3,890 with a daily increase of 0.99% and a night - session closing price of 3,891 with a night - session increase of 0.03%. PG2510 closed at 4,354 with a 1.23% increase, PL2601 at 6,446 with a 0.66% increase, and PL2602 at 6,493 with a 0.51% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2509's trading volume was 37,785, a decrease of 2,184 from the previous day, and its open interest was 42,525, a decrease of 13,814. PG2510's trading volume was 98,441, an increase of 52,994, and its open interest was 104,754, an increase of 3,980 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 610, compared to 598 the previous day. The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 56, compared to 6 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 76.3%, up from 73.8% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 63.4%, down from 66.6% last week, and the alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, down from 50.0% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market News - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On August 20, 2025, the September CP paper goods prices were 519 US dollars per ton for propane, up 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day, and 496 US dollars per ton for butane, up 5 US dollars per ton. The October CP paper goods price for propane was 533 US dollars per ton, up 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times and end times determined and some end times still pending [8]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In the short term, the export - end information supports the urea valuation, but due to the slow export flow, the feedback on the spot end is relatively limited. Urea presents a pattern of oscillation with support. The daily focus is on the overall spot trading situation [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,788 yuan/ton, down 1; the trading volume was 457,226 lots, up from 401,998 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 208,609 lots, down 4,424; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 16350.35 million yuan, up 1966.39 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 6, up 81; the Fengxi - to - futures price difference was - 166, up 41; the Dongguang - to - futures price difference was - 16, up 81; the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 25, up 9 [1] Spot Market - Among urea factory prices, the price of Henan Xinlianxin and Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1,770 yuan/ton and 1,460 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices of Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 40 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 82.59%, down 0.65%, and the daily output was 191,200 tons, down 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, the overall enterprise inventory was on an upward trend, with inventory increasing in some provinces and decreasing in others [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]