2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产消息反复，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢低做多 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 11 日 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,090 | -260 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Hold short positions in crude oil and monitor geopolitical disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 rose by $0.21, or 0.36%, to $58.46 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 rose by $0.27, or 0.44%, to $62.21 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down by 3.80 yuan per barrel, or 0.86%, to 440.50 yuan per barrel [1] 3.2 Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saudi extra - light crude, Angolan crude, Nigerian crude, North Sea crude, and some Saudi heavy crude are closed; Vasconia crude shows a weak arbitrage opportunity; Ecuador's Napo crude has a significant arbitrage space; Maya crude is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3.3 Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties and Cabinda crudes have insufficient competitiveness; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend crudes show arbitrage opportunities, with Urals crude having a huge arbitrage space due to sanctions - related discounts [4] 3.4 Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crudes present arbitrage opportunities; Azeri Light crude has a weak arbitrage space [6] 3.5 Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows of Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crudes against Urals are all closed [7][8] 3.6 Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crudes show arbitrage opportunities; Basrah Heavy and Maya crudes have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 3.7 Key Market News - Venezuelan opposition leader Machado fled the country; the Fed announced short - term bond purchases and a 25BP interest rate cut; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker; Venezuela's President Maduro made a tough statement; a Russian "shadow fleet" oil tanker was sunk in the Black Sea [12] 3.8 Trend Intensity - The crude oil trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [11]

2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：低位震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251211 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：已提前交易冬至预期，仓单增量 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 12 月 11 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：利空出尽，短期反弹 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,542 | 涨跌幅 -1.23% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,662 | 涨跌幅 1.40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Interest rates were cut as expected [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high, breaking through 60 [2][4]. - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price [2][8]. - Zinc: Pulled back from a high level [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limited the price decline [2][14]. - Tin: Supply was disrupted again [2][17]. - Aluminum: Continued to fluctuate; Alumina rebounded slightly; Cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: Faced significant resistance above [2][25]. - Palladium: Trended slightly upward in a volatile manner [2][25]. - Nickel: The structural surplus situation changed, but the conflicting factors in the game remained unchanged; Stainless steel: Both supply and demand continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [2][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2512, and London Gold Spot all rose by 0.51% yesterday, while the night - session prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D declined slightly [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2512 decreased by 6,955, and the position decreased by 1,834; the trading volume of Comex Gold 2512 increased by 6,122, and the position increased by 1,832 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Comex Gold decreased by 113,819 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2512 remained unchanged, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 0.87 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [4][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T + D rose by 5.59% and 5.72% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of Shanghai Silver 2512 rose by 0.78% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2512 increased by 505,812, and the position increased by 33,231; the trading volume of Comex Silver 2512 increased by 2,658, and the position remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 24,057 kilograms, while the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 321,251 (in troy ounces) [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 decreased by 46, and the cost of the spread - arbitrage strategy of buying December and selling June decreased by 11.3 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [6]. Copper - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.83% and 0.78% respectively yesterday, and the night - session price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly [8]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased by 83,947, and the position decreased by 1,936; the trading volume of LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 2,268, and the position increased by 3,241 [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 600 tons, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 700 tons [8]. - **Spread**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 8.19, and the spot - to - near - month spread decreased by 65 [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024; China's November imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, with a cumulative import of 27.614 million tons from January to November, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%; the US is negotiating with central African countries to provide over $1 billion for two key mineral and railway projects; Chile's November copper export value increased by 4.57% year - on - year [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract rose slightly by 0.02%, while the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk declined by 1.33% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased, and the trading volume and position of LME Zinc also decreased [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 1,297 tons, while the inventory of LME Zinc increased by 1,650 tons [11]. - **News**: China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk declined by 0.32% and 1.10% respectively [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased, and the position decreased; the trading volume of LME Lead increased, and the position decreased [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 202 tons, and the inventory of LME Lead decreased by 1,375 tons [14]. - **News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced purchases of short - term US Treasuries; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract rose by 3.30%, and the night - session price declined by 0.51%; the closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk rose by 0.40% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased, and the trading volume of LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased slightly, while the position increased [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 86 tons, and the inventory of LME Tin increased by 605 tons [17]. - **Spread**: The spread between the spot and the main - contract futures of tin increased by 8,380 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed removed the total - amount limit for standing repo operations and announced monthly purchases of $40 billion in Treasury bills starting from December 12; Trump criticized the Fed for the small rate - cut amplitude; China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline of PPI slightly widened; the AH - share real - estate sector rose sharply on Wednesday afternoon; the Goldman Sachs model showed that the RMB was undervalued by 25% [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract showed different trends; the closing price of the cast - aluminum - alloy main contract rose [20]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina main contract changed to varying degrees [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Aluminum increased slightly, and the inventory of LME Aluminum decreased; the domestic alumina average price declined [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with three voting members opposing, and still expected one rate cut next year, and would buy $40 billion in short - term bonds; the US employment - cost increase reached a new low in over four years, and inflation pressure eased [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for all of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed different trends, with some rising and some falling [24]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of platinum and palladium futures changed to varying degrees [24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum decreased by 152 ounces, and the inventory of NYMEX Palladium increased by 7,049 ounces [24]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different platinum and palladium contracts and the spreads between spot and futures changed [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed announced purchases of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days, cut interest rates by 25 basis points with three dissenting votes, and the dot plot maintained the expectation of one rate cut in each of the next two years; Trump continued to criticize Powell after the rate cut; Indonesia imposed a floating tariff on gold exports, with a maximum rate of 15%; the US seized a Venezuelan oil tanker near Venezuela; Maduro stated that Venezuela was ready to "knock out the teeth of the US" if necessary; the US third - quarter labor - cost growth rate dropped to the lowest in four years [26][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for platinum and 1 for palladium [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract declined slightly, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract rose [29]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volumes and positions of the Shanghai Nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract changed to varying degrees [29]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The prices of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains, such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel products, showed different trends [29]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia; the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Indonesia issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process; Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on "all key software"; Indonesia suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks affected the production of some nickel - wet - process projects; New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [29][32]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both nickel and stainless steel [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the trends of various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The core views are that iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by real - estate sector sentiment and are in low - level oscillations; ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations; and logs are in low - level oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 12601 futures contract was 787.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.96% from the previous day. The position decreased by 28,717 hands to 155,293 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices such as Carajás fines (65%), PB fines (61.5%), etc., all increased by 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.244 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In the first 11 months, the retail sales were 21.75 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 rebar futures contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.97%; the HC2605 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.58%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil positions decreased by 79,529 hands and 2,506 hands respectively [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 4, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 27.67 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 35.22 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.77 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.7 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 26.76 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 10.96 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.36 tons, and the total decreased by 23.83 tons [7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position Data**: For ferrosilicon, the 2603 contract closed at 5434 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5394 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. For silicomanganese, the 2603 contract closed at 5724 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the 2605 contract closed at 5768 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also showed certain fluctuations [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 11, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported. The offer prices of South32, CML, and Comilog for manganese ore in January 2026 were also announced, with some prices rising. HeSteel's 12 - month ferrosilicon inquiry price decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to November, while the quantity increased by 34 tons; the procurement of silicomanganese by a large steel group in Hebei decreased by 1300 tons in December, and the inquiry price decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared to November [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 963 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 2.1%; the J2601 coke futures contract was 1527 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan or 0.9%. Positions of both decreased [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 10, the national consumer price index in November 2025 increased by 0.7% year - on - year [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the 2601 log futures contract on December 10 was 756 yuan/m³, down 1.4% from the previous day and 1.1% from the previous week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the position decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions showed little change [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improved business climate [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 10, 2025. For instance, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while silver futures are likely to rise and hit a new high since listing [2][3]. - Global trade is projected to increase by about 7% (an additional $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record of $35 trillion, driven by East Asia, Africa, and South - South trade. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal differences, and the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 10, 2025, they are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4600 and 4619 points, and support levels are 4565 and 4535 points. Similar resistance and support levels are given for IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 [2][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2603 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.74 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2603 is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support at 112.2 and 111.7 yuan and resistance at 112.7 and 113.1 yuan [2][38][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2602 is likely to fluctuate strongly and attack resistance levels of 961.0 and 963.3 yuan/gram, with support at 951.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2602 is likely to rise and hit a new high since listing, with resistance at 14200 and 14500 yuan/kg and support at 13726 and 13681 yuan/kg [2][3][43][51]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2601 is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 90600 and 90100 yuan/ton and resistance at 91700 and 92500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 21920 and 21980 yuan/ton and support at 21710 and 21610 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to decline and hit a new low since listing, and tin futures contract SN2601 is likely to fluctuate strongly [3][56][63]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, soybean meal, and corn futures all have their respective predicted trends and resistance/support levels [3][4][7]. 3.2 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - Chinese Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's economic confidence in achieving the annual goals. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the IMF President. US President Trump said he would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. China and Russia conducted a joint air - strategic cruise. The UNCTAD reported that global trade would grow by about 7% in 2025 [8]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market has priced in a 25 - basis - point cut. The US private - sector employment situation improved, and Ukraine is preparing for elections [8][9]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 9, international precious metal futures generally rose, while US crude oil and London base metals fell. The current high iron ore price is due to capital games and speculation, and the EIA adjusted its oil - price forecasts [9][10][11]. - In November, Russia's daily crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels lower than the target. The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar had certain changes, and the US dollar index rose [11][12].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a high - level volatile state, with tight supply and demand, and may be strong before the holiday. It is recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [8]. - The PTA market is also in a high - level volatile state, supported by PX costs. It is recommended to hold long PX and short PTA positions in the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant against the negative feedback of the industrial chain caused by the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9]. - The MEG market has short - term support due to multiple device planned out - of - schedule load reductions. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. However, in the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 9, the Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea indicators both fell by $9/ton compared to the previous day. The market activity was quiet, and the daily price fluctuations of PX spot were mainly driven by upstream crude oil. Asian market participants are concerned about the development of the physical market in 2026 and the PX regular contract settlement [4][5]. - As the PX contract negotiation nears the end, the focus will gradually shift to the PTA contract negotiation. A 530,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Kuwait and a 600,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plan to shut down for maintenance. A 1,000,000 - ton/year EO/EG plant in Zhejiang has seen a continuous decline in load. The sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are average [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene is - 1, PTA is - 1, and MEG is 0 [8]. Futures and Spot Data - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all declined yesterday, with the decline rates of - 1.42%, - 1.07%, - 0.27%, - 0.71%, and - 2.51% respectively. The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent in the spot market also decreased compared to the previous day [2]. PX Market - The domestic PX operating rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). The GS device has a shutdown plan in December, the Middle East Satorp700,000 - ton device restarts. The supply side of PX is expected to shrink. The PTA operating rate remains at 73.7%. Under the current high - operating mode of polyester, there is a certain supply gap for PX. The PXN continues to expand, and the supply recovery space of PX is limited. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [8]. PTA Market - The PTA operating rate this week remains at 73.7%. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 91.8% (+ 0.3%). Supported by the cost of PX, the unilateral price is in a high - level volatile state. The current PTA processing fee is 170 yuan/ton. If there are certain warehouse receipts in the 01 - contract PX, there may be an opportunity for the PTA processing fee to expand [9]. MEG Market - Multiple MEG devices have announced production cuts. According to the current new maintenance situation, there will be no inventory accumulation or even a small - scale inventory reduction in December. In the medium term, new devices such as Ningxia Kunpeng and BASF Zhanjiang will be put into production successively, and the polyester device operating rate will drop to 84% in February. The upper - price limit has not been opened, and the unilateral price is recommended to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no mention of the overall industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions of various energy - chemical futures such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Most products are in a state of shock, with some showing short - term strength or weakness, and investors are advised to operate according to different product characteristics and market conditions [2][12][13] - For example, PX is in a high - level shock market, with tight supply and certain demand support; PTA is supported by cost and shows a high - level shock trend; MEG has limited downside space in the short term due to device production cuts, but faces supply - increase and demand - decrease pressure in the medium term [12][13][14] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level shock market. Supply has a contraction expectation, but demand is still high under the high - start mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [12] - **PTA**: High - level shock market, cost - supported. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA for the 05 contract, and conduct a 5 - 9 positive spread. The unilateral price is in a high - level shock due to PX support [13] - **MEG**: Multiple devices have planned out - of - plan production cuts, providing short - term support. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. However, in the medium term, it is in a pattern of supply increase and demand decrease [14][15] 2. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members has decreased. The increase in heavy - truck sales in November supports the demand for commercial vehicle tires, but the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the fourth quarter is weak [16][17][18] 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range - bound operation. The inventory of butadiene is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to operate in a short - term range [19][20][22] 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is weakly oscillating. The weekly output has increased, the factory inventory has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The trend strength is weak [24][32][33] 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a unilateral decline, and the basis is passively positive. The upstream selling pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply may increase in the future, and the trend strength is neutral [34][35] 6. PP - The PP market is under upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and pellet materials is inverted. The cost support is limited, the supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the demand is weak, and the trend strength is neutral [36][37] 7. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short on caustic soda. The market is in a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak. The cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [38][40][41] 8. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The inventory is at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The market is under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand [43][46][47] 9. Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the rigid - demand orders are still weak, and the trend strength is weak [49][50] 10. Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The short - term is weakly operating, and the 01 contract has high supply pressure in the medium term. In 2026, the fundamentals may improve marginally in the first quarter, and the trend strength is weak [52][55][56] 11. Urea - The urea market is oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory index during the day. The demand has improved temporarily, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate, with the upper pressure at 1700 yuan/ton and the lower support at 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [57][58][59] 12. Styrene - The styrene market is in short - term shock. The short - term pure benzene market is oscillating at the bottom, and the supply pressure of styrene is not large. The port inventory is slightly decreasing [60][61] 13. Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general. The trend strength is weak [64][65] 14. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term demand is strong, but the medium - and long - term is under pressure. The trend strength is neutral [67][71] - **Propylene**: The supply has an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is weak [67][71] 15. PVC - The PVC market is weakly oscillating. The supply is at a high level, and the inventory is under pressure. The short - term is not advisable to chase short, but the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [75][76] 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market has weakened again, and the center of the disk has continued to move down [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The market is in a narrow - range shock, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [78] 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) market is oscillating. The 2602 contract may experience price increases in January, but the high price is difficult to sustain. The 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling at high levels, and the trend strength is neutral [80][90][91] 18. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The futures are weakly adjusted, and the spot price is mostly stable [93][94] - **Bottle Chip**: There is medium - term pressure, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee at high levels. The upstream raw material futures are weakly oscillating, and the factory price is partially reduced [93][94] 19. Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The spot price is stable, the market demand is weak, and the paper mill's order - receiving situation is general [96][97][98] 20. Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the demand is weak in December but may improve after January [101][102]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：USDA 报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 12 月 9 日 CBOT 大豆日评：中国需求担忧及南美大豆丰产，大豆跌至一个多月最低。北京德润林 2025 年 12 月 10 日消息：周二，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，因为市场仍担心中国对 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 国 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4089 | +5（+0.12%） 4092 | +6（+0.15%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2763 | -30（-1.07%） 2752 -19 | （-0.69%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1087.75 | -6.0（-0.55%） | | | | ...