Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has been depleted again, and the price is in a range - bound oscillation [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **2509 Contract**: The closing price is 81,040, down 6,540 compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 55,748, up 27,298 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 65,157, down 11,043 compared to T - 1 [2] - **2511 Contract**: The closing price is 80,980, down 6,560 compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 838,879, up 103,950 compared to T - 1; the open interest is 395,102, down 18,995 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The quantity is 24,045 hands, up 430 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 951, down 27 compared to T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,125, down 60 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 85,224 yuan/ton, down 528 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [3] - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate production is 19,138 tons, a decrease of 842 tons from last week; the industry inventory is 141,543 tons, a reduction of 713 tons from last week [3] - **Company News**: SQM, one of the world's largest lithium producers, raised its annual sales target after a 28% drop in core profit in Q2 and is optimistic about price recovery. It expects a quarterly sales volume increase of over 10% and a higher selling price in Q3 than in Q2. Its Australian joint - venture refinery has achieved commercial production, with a planned annual lithium hydroxide capacity of 50,000 tons in 2026. Sigma Lithium's Q2 lithium concentrate production reached 68,368 tons, a 38% year - on - year increase, but its sales volume decreased by 23% year - on - year to 40,350 tons due to a stockpiling strategy during volatile lithium prices. The company's second - phase plant construction has started, and the annual production capacity will double to 520,000 tons after commissioning [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international palm oil price may rise due to the potential disappointment in the US biofuel exemption volume, while the soybean oil price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.53% change and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with a 1.70% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,422 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.24% change and 8,470 yuan/ton at night with a 0.57% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,878 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.23% change and 9,888 yuan/ton at night with a 0.10% change. Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,462 ringgit/ton during the day session with a -0.78% change and 4,530 ringgit/ton at night with a 1.57% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 53.77 cents/pound with a 4.51% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 58,090 lots with a decrease of 21,471 lots and an open interest of 72,258 lots with a decrease of 25,308 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 48,524 lots with a decrease of 49,415 lots and an open interest of 86,598 lots with a decrease of 24,464 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 20,132 lots with a decrease of 3,487 lots and an open interest of 34,597 lots with a decrease of 4,020 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,620 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,640 yuan/ton with a 30 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,850 yuan/ton with a 20 yuan change. Malaysian palm oil FOB was priced at 1,110 dollars/ton with no change [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 184 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 218 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -28 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 291 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was -1,106 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was -64 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 28 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 87 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Its palm oil exports reached 3.61 million tons in June, a 35.4% month - on - month increase driven by surging demand from major buyers such as China and India [2]. - The Trump administration is expected to rule on a large number of small refinery biofuel exemption applications as early as this Friday but will delay the decision on whether to require large refineries to make up for some of the exempted quotas. The EPA will rule on 195 outstanding small refinery exemption applications dating back to 2016 on Friday, with a "mixed bag" of results including partial rejections [5]. - From August 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5]. - India purchased a batch of rapeseed oil to be delivered in August for the first time in nearly five years due to the high domestic rapeseed oil price [5]. - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been slightly increased to 430 million tons (year - on - year +1%), and the trade volume forecast has been raised by 1 million tons compared with the July report, reaching a record high (year - on - year +2%) [6]. - The USDA's latest drought report shows that as of the week ending August 19, about 9% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 3% and 7% last year), about 5% of US corn - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 4% and 6% last year), and about 22% of US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought (previously 5% and 21% last year) [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0 [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The cotton futures price is fluctuating in a narrow range and waiting for new drivers. The domestic cotton spot trading is still weak, the cotton yarn market is generally trading, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has not improved significantly. The ICE cotton futures are also fluctuating narrowly, affected by the strong dollar and general export sales data [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Closing prices: CF2601 closed at 14,030 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18% and a night - session price of 14045 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; CY2511 closed at 20,060 yuan/ton with a 0.02% decline and a night - session price of 20110 yuan/ton with a 0.25% increase; ICE cotton 12 closed at 67.47 cents/pound with a 0.09% decline [1]. - Trading volume and open interest: CF2601 had a trading volume of 198,093 lots, a decrease of 180,332 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 733,904 lots, a decrease of 4,203 lots; CY2511 had a trading volume of 5,701 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and an open interest of 22,074 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - Warehouse receipts: Zhengzhou cotton had 7,335 warehouse receipts, a decrease of 120, and 188 valid forecasts, a decrease of 61; cotton yarn had 69 warehouse receipts with no change and 0 valid forecasts, an increase of 69 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Domestic spot prices: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day; Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,963 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price in Shandong was 15,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; in Hebei, it was 15,204 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan; the 3128B index was 15,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [1]. - International price: The international cotton index M was 75.13 cents/pound, an increase of 0.07% [1]. - Yarn prices: The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,700 yuan/ton with no change; the arrival price was 22,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is still weak, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis is stable. The sales basis of some 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang hand - picked and machine - picked cottons is in a certain range [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is generally average, and spinning mills are mainly selling at reasonable prices. The price of C40S has increased by 200 - 300 yuan/ton, and the increase has slowed down in the past two days. The trading atmosphere in the full - cotton grey fabric market has not continued to improve, and the actual orders have not increased significantly [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The strong dollar put pressure on the price, and the weekly export sales data were average, failing to boost the price. As of August 14, the net sales of 2025/26 US cotton were 105,400 bales [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also mentions a macro and industry news item about a heterojunction battery and component project. The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511's closing price is 8,635 yuan/ton, with a change of -40 yuan compared to T - 5. PS2511's closing price is 51,530 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,100 yuan compared to T - 5. There are also details about trading volume, open interest, and spreads for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [1]. - **Spot Market**: Industrial silicon spot prices vary by type, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon at 8,450 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feed at 49,000 yuan/ton. There are also data on spot premiums and discounts [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits are negative for both Xinjiang and Yunnan new - standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profits are - 15.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.3 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons, and the total industry inventory is 71.8 million tons. Polysilicon factory inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Prices of raw materials like silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes are provided, with some showing price changes over different time periods [1]. - **Related Product Prices and Profits in the Polysilicon Industry Chain**: Prices and profits of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic glass are included, with some products showing price changes compared to different time points [1]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, and DMC enterprise profit is - 994 yuan/ton. ADC12 price is 20,450 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is - 230 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News On August 11, the People's Government of Qidong City, Jiangsu Province, released an acceptance notice for the first - phase project of Qidong Hongjun's heterojunction battery and component project. The project, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, is expected to produce 2GW of single - crystal heterojunction 210*105mm (N - type) HJT double - sided double - glass components annually [1][3]. Trend Strength The trend strength for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a neutral outlook on both [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the asphalt market, including futures prices, spreads, spot market conditions, and industry trends. It shows that while the price of crude oil is slightly stronger, the cracking spread of asphalt is getting weaker. The market is influenced by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [1][9][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 on the previous day were 3,496 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.09% and 0.32%. The night - session closing prices were 3,500 yuan/ton and 3,468 yuan/ton, with night - session increases of 0.11% and 0.09% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 7,439 lots, a decrease of 834 lots, and the open interest was 20,537 lots, a decrease of 3,225 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 123,366 lots, a decrease of 22,655 lots, and the open interest was 211,461 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 72,650 lots, with no change [1] - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 20; the East China - South China spread was 230 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Market**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,720 yuan/ton, with no change. The refinery operating rate was 36.92%, an increase of 1.31% compared to the previous update, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.81%, an increase of 2.02% [1] 3.2 Market Information - **Production**: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries was 1.557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,000 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 467,000 tons (42.9%) [15] - **Shipment**: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 391,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the Northwest region continued to decline [15] - **Capacity Utilization**: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [15][16] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9]

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The supply and demand of propylene are tightening, and the price is supported [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price**: PG2509 closed at 3,900 yesterday with a 0.26% daily increase and 3,907 in the night session with a 0.18% increase; PG2510 closed at 4,393 yesterday with a 0.90% daily increase and 4,405 in the night session with a 0.27% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,472 yesterday with a 0.40% daily increase and 6,488 in the night session with a 0.25% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,522 yesterday with a 0.45% daily increase and remained unchanged in the night session [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 18,614 yesterday, a decrease of 19,171 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,231, a decrease of 7,294; for PG2510, the trading volume was 99,068, an increase of 627, and the open interest was 104,935, an increase of 181; for PL2601, the trading volume was 2,524, an increase of 414, and the open interest was 4,586, an increase of 352; for PL2602, the trading volume was 23, a decrease of 2, and the open interest was 849, a decrease of 4 [2] - **Price Spread**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 600 yesterday, compared with 610 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 680, unchanged; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -2, compared with -56 the day before; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -47, compared with -21 the day before; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -97, compared with -71 the day before [2] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, down from 76.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, up slightly from 63.4%; the alkylation operating rate was 48.2%, down from 49.0% [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and that of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [8] Market Information - On August 21, 2025, the September CP paper cargo price of propane was 520 US dollars per ton, up 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day, and the butane price was 496 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the October CP paper cargo price of propane was 536 US dollars per ton, up 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [10] - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plan**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jineng Chemical (Qingdao) Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on August 19, 2025, and ending in October 2025 [11] - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plan**: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, including Shengli Oilfield in Shandong starting a full - plant maintenance on June 16, 2025, with an expected end in late August 2025; Fushun Petrochemical in Liaoning starting a full - plant maintenance on August 15, 2025, and ending in early October 2025 [11]

2025 年 8 月 22 日 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4300 和 4330 点，支撑位 4260 和 4246 点；IH2509 阻力位 2880 和 2900 点，支撑位 2860 和 2850 点；IC2509 阻力位 6750 和 6800 点，支撑位 6601 和 6568 点；IM2509 阻力位 7350 和 7400 点，支撑位 7156 和 7087 点。 股指期货将偏强震荡 白银、铜、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、天然 橡胶期货将偏强震荡 豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不 ...

2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：装置计划外停车，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：仍在区间震荡内，但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：宏观情绪溢价支撑，进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需收紧，价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱怕盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The exemption volume of US biodiesel may fall short of expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Consolidating at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose significantly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][11]. - Soybean: Rebounding and fluctuating [2][11]. - Corn: Weakening [2][14]. - Sugar: Trading in a range [2][17]. - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuating narrowly, waiting for new drivers [2][22]. - Eggs: Pay attention to the rhythm of culling laying hens [2][26]. - Pigs: Wait for the spot market to confirm at the end of the month [2][28]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil and soybean oil futures prices showed different trends in the day - and night - sessions. For example, the palm oil main contract closed at 9,436 yuan/ton during the day session with a decline of 0.53%, and 9,596 yuan/ton at night with an increase of 1.70%. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons by the end of June. The US is expected to rule on small refinery biofuel exemptions. Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20, 2025 increased by 0.3% month - on - month [5][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean and soybean meal futures prices had different performances. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions also had corresponding changes, and the trading volume and inventory of soybean meal showed certain trends [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 21, CBOT soybeans rose due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The US soybean crop is growing well, and the new - season soybean sales exceeded expectations [11][13]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: Corn futures prices showed a downward trend, and important spot prices such as the Jinzhou closing price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest also changed [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, while prices in the Northeast and North China showed a weakening trend [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound, and the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton. The futures main contract price was 5,688 yuan/ton [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon rainfall has decreased. China's sugar imports in July increased by 320,000 tons [17]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: Cotton futures prices fluctuated slightly, and spot prices in different regions such as the North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton decreased slightly. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading remained weak, and the cotton textile market was generally sluggish. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, and the US cotton weekly export sales data was average [23]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg futures prices declined, and the basis and spot prices in different regions showed certain trends [26]. - **No specific macro and industry news provided for eggs in the text**. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Pig futures and spot prices had different changes, and the basis and spreads also showed corresponding trends [30]. - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, while demand growth was limited. The market is waiting for government procurement to boost sentiment, and attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in the long - term price center [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: Peanut futures prices declined slightly, and important spot prices remained stable. Trading volume, open interest, and basis also had corresponding changes [34]. - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts are gradually being listed, with the supply in Henan being acceptable. The prices of white - sand peanuts are slightly weak, while the prices of large peanuts are stable. New peanuts in Jilin are expected to be listed around mid - to late September [35].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Trend is strong, recommend long on dips and focus on the 11-1 calendar spread [6] - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong, focus on the 9-1/10-1 calendar spread [7] - MEG: Trend is strong, exit the 9-1 reverse calendar spread [7] 2) Core Views - PX follows the rise of PTA due to unexpected PTA plant shutdowns and the recovery of polyester demand in the peak season, forming a positive feedback loop and showing a short - term strong trend [6] - PTA's 8 - 9 month balance sheet shows significant inventory drawdown due to an unexpected plant shutdown, and with the increase in polyester plant operation rate, it will enter a tight - balance pattern, so 9-1/10-1 calendar spreads are favorable [7] - MEG has a tight spot supply with high basis, and low recent arrivals benefit the near - month contracts, but there are clear upside pressures from future new capacity, so no short - term chasing of long positions [7] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On the 21st, the price of PX increased significantly, with two 10 - month Asian spot transactions at 854 and 855, and two 11 - month Asian spot transactions at 849 and 851. The estimated price of PX on the 21st was 854 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars from the 20th [3] - **PTA**: A 250 - million - ton PTA plant in South China shut down for maintenance on the 21st, and another 250 - million - ton plant is expected to shut down around August 23rd for over a month. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 71.6%, and the operating rate was around 77.4% [3] - **MEG**: As of August 21st, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.16% (up 6.77% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.25% (up 0.78% from the previous period) [5] - **Polyester**: There were no changes in the whole polyester plants this week, but the local plant loads increased, and the overall polyester load in mainland China was around 90% as of Thursday. The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, and the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn recovered to around 71% [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6958 | 4860 | 4473 | 6614 | 490.9 | | Change | 6844 | 82 | - 4 | 110 | 8.1 | | Change Rate | 1.67% | 1.72% | - 0.09% | 1.69% | 1.68% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 162 | - 14 | - 54 | - 42 | - 6.2 | | Month Spread (Change) | 74 | 42 | - 4 | 20 | 0.7 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 852.33 dollars/ton | 4830 yuan/ton | 4518 yuan/ton | 584.5 dollars/ton | 68.12 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | 14.33 | 144 | 16 | 9 | 0.57 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 255.5 | 197.31 | 175.93 | 27.32 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 2.5 | - 10.67 | 43.46 | 4.44 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - PTA trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] - MEG trend intensity: 1 (indicating a "strong" view) [6] Sales Data - On the 21st, the overall sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair, with an average sales rate of around 70% by 3:30 pm [5] - On the 21st, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales rate of 89% by 3:00 pm [6]