Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to move in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the price decline slowing down and entering an oscillatory phase. The upper limit is restricted by incremental warehouse receipts, while the lower limit is supported by continuous restocking from middle and downstream players. The current fundamental driver of urea is neutral, and the price is supported by the continuous reduction of explicit inventory. The 01 contract has a strong fundamental resistance level at 1700 yuan/ton and a support level between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (01 Contract)**: The closing price was 1,643 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,644 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 140,314 lots, a decrease of 76,397 lots; the open interest was 150,646 lots, a decrease of 16,428 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 11,477 tons, a decrease of 49 tons; the trading volume was 461.365 million yuan, a decrease of 254.325 million yuan. The basis in Shandong increased by 3, the basis of Fengxi - contract increased by 3, and the basis of Dongguang - contract decreased by 7. The spread of UR01 - UR05 of Henan Xinlianxin decreased by 4 [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged. The price of Hebei Dongguang decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The trading prices in Shandong remained unchanged, while those in Shanxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - side Key Indicators**: The operating rate was 79.60%, an increase of 1.00 percentage points, and the daily output was 192,480 tons, an increase of 2,420 tons [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.38%. The inventory in some provinces decreased, while that in others increased. The demand for reserves and exports has improved the urea fundamentals, and the driver has changed from downward to neutral. Whether the driver can turn upward depends on the continuity of middle - stream restocking [2] - In the short - term, as the urea price drops from a high level, the spot trading improved on Tuesday. The overall price decline is expected to slow down, and the market will enter an oscillatory pattern. Attention should be paid to spot trading and enterprise inventory data released by information providers [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

2025年12月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：关注MPOB报告利空出尽反应 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：USDA报告平淡，盘面低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251210 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：关注 MPOB 报告利空出尽反应 豆油：美豆驱动不足，豆油震荡为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.67% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.74% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,648 8,190 | -0.49% | 8,712 7,998 | -2.3 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the international crude oil market, including price movements, arbitrage opportunities in different regions, and key market news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Hold short positions in crude oil, and prices may gradually decline to new lows [1] Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil Prices - NYMEX WTI futures contract 01 fell $0.63, or 1.07%, to $58.25 per barrel; ICE Brent futures contract 02 fell $0.55, or 0.88%, to $61.94 per barrel; SC2601 crude oil futures closed down 5.90 yuan per barrel, or 1.31%, at 443.40 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with only Vasconia showing a weak arbitrage opportunity of $0.76 per barrel, and Ecuador's Napo crude oil having a significant arbitrage space of $3.66 per barrel [2][4] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties is close to the break - even point with intense competition; Arab Extra Light and Saharan Blend present arbitrage opportunities, and Urals has a huge arbitrage space of $22.82 per barrel due to sanctions [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - Multiple crude oil varieties such as WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light present arbitrage opportunities, with varying degrees of arbitrage space [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Most crude oil varieties have closed arbitrage windows, with weak competitiveness against Urals [6][7] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have closed arbitrage windows [8] Key Market News - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4779000 barrels in the week ending December 5, API Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 47000 barrels, and API gasoline inventory increased by 6955000 barrels [9][10] - EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20000 barrels per day to a record - high average of 13.61 million barrels per day, but lowered the 2026 forecast by 50000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [11] - EIA slightly raised the 2025 Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts and also slightly raised the 2026 forecasts [11] - Russia's average daily crude oil production in November was about 9.43 million barrels, still more than 100000 barrels per day below the OPEC+ quota [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and analyses on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, market dynamics, and suggestions for each product. It also mentions the trend strength of each futures product, which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs a. Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Unilateral oscillation. PXN continues to expand. Do not chase high in the short - term, go long on dips. 5 - 9 positive spread. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is a certain supply gap under high polyester operation [12]. - **PTA**: Unilateral high - level oscillation. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract. There may be an opportunity for PTA processing fee expansion if there are certain PX warehouse receipts in the 01 contract [12]. - **MEG**: Price hits a new low, with a weak trend. Go short on the 5 - 9 spread at high levels. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in the medium term [13][14]. b. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Market is affected by inventory and supply factors. The increase in Qingdao inventory slows down, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize [15][18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Range - bound. Fundamental pressure exists, but valuation provides support. Raw materials are expected to oscillate [19][22]. c. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weak oscillation. Production increases slightly this week, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases. The market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [23][30]. d. Plastics - **LLDPE**: Basis weakens, and upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The market is affected by raw materials, supply, and demand. Pay attention to the supply - demand pressure in the medium term [31][32]. - **PP**: Medium - term trend still faces pressure. Supply is relatively high, and demand peaks have passed. Short - term market should not be chased short, but the downward pressure remains [33][34]. e. Others - **Caustic Soda**: Trend still faces pressure. High production and inventory persist, and demand is weak. Supply pressure is large in winter, and cost support is limited [37][39]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The market shows narrow - range consolidation and differentiation between futures and spot. The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and high inventory and weak demand [42][46]. - **Glass**: Flat glass prices are stable. Supply eases slightly, but rigid demand is still weak [47][48]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. Short - term weak operation, medium - term high supply pressure on the 01 contract. There is a possibility of marginal improvement in the first quarter of 2026 [50][53]. - **Urea**: Weak operation. Warehouse receipts increase significantly. Fundamental drivers are neutral, and there are policy and cost support and pressure [55][57]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Pure benzene market oscillates, and styrene supply pressure is not large, with port inventory slightly decreasing [58][59]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is average [61][62]. - **LPG**: Short - term demand is strong, but medium - and long - term is under pressure. Propylene supply is expected to increase, and upward driving force is limited [64]. - **PVC**: Trend is weak. Supply is high, demand is weak, and short - term should not be chased short. There is a possibility of supply reduction in the future [72]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to rebound and may temporarily get out of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [75]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating. Affected by negotiation and freight factors, the 2602 contract is an oscillating market in the medium term, and the 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling [87][88]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Medium - term pressure exists. Short - sell the processing fee at high levels [90][91]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. Market prices are stable, demand is weak, and industry operation is at a high level [93][96]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. Weak current situation but strong future expectations. Inventory pressure is high in December, and supply is expected to contract after January [98][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 8th, all the current-month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.76%, IH by 0.39%, IC by 0.95%, and IM by 0.94% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a decrease in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 4,291 lots, IH by 6,787 lots, IC by 24,924 lots, and IM by 50,024 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 4,343 lots, IH by 3,064 lots, IC by 11,667 lots, and IM by 20,325 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF Futures**: The closing price of IF2512 is 4,613.2, up 0.76% with a basis of -8.55, trading volume of 76,082 lots (down 8,672 lots), and open interest of 132,821 lots (down 10,475 lots). For other contracts, similar data are provided [1] - **IH Futures**: The closing price of IH2512 is 3,015, up 0.39% with a basis of -4.36, trading volume of 31,875 lots (up 6,694 lots), and open interest of 55,867 lots (up 3,888 lots). Other contracts' data are also presented [1] - **IC Futures**: The closing price of IC2512 is 7,144, up 0.95% with a basis of -28.37, trading volume of 63,355 lots (up 19,994 lots), and open interest of 116,565 lots (up 14,425 lots). Data for other contracts are given [1] - **IM Futures**: The closing price of IM2512 is 7,380.4, up 0.94% with a basis of -42.65, trading volume of 104,973 lots (up 41,964 lots), and open interest of 168,647 lots (up 20,556 lots). Data for other contracts are included [1] 3.2 Top 20 Member Positions - **IF Contracts**: For IF2512, the long positions decreased by 8,881, and the short positions decreased by 7,839. For other contracts, the changes in long and short positions are also provided [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2512, the long positions decreased by 3,455, and the short positions decreased by 3,329. Data for other contracts are presented [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2512, the long positions decreased by 12,343, and the short positions decreased by 11,116. Information for other contracts is given [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2512, the long positions decreased by 15,311, and the short positions decreased by 15,806. Data for other contracts are included [5] 3.3 Important Drivers - The Politburo meeting pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and enhance the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies [7] - The regulatory authorities will guide industry institutions to adhere to the development direction of functionality, intensiveness, specialization, and specialization, and appropriately "relax the restrictions" on high-quality institutions [7] - In November, China's passenger car sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% to 2.24 million units. The decline was mainly due to a 22% drop in fuel vehicles and the withdrawal of subsidy policies. New energy vehicles accounted for 58.9%, a record high, but the growth rate of 4.2% was not enough to offset the decline. Exports were a bright spot, with a 52.4% increase in November. Institutions expect new energy vehicle exports to increase by 40% to 2.83 million units next year [7]

短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 2025 年 12 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6220 | 6210 | 10 | PF01-02 | -6 | 0 | -6 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6226 | 6210 | 16 | PF02-03 | ୧ | -50 | 56 | | | 短纤2603 | 6220 | 6260 | -40 | PF主力基差 | 74 | 110 | -36 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 174928 | 119104 | 55824 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 300 | 6. 320 | -20 | | | 短纤主力 ...

2025 年 12 月 09 日 豆粕：偏弱震荡，注意规避 USDA 报告风险 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 豆一：盘面震荡 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4085 | -3（-0.07%） 4077 -7（-0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2778 | -50（-1.77%） 2777 -16（-0.57%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1093.75 | -11.5（-1.04%） | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 306.8 | n a -0.6（-0.20%） | | | | 3010～3070， 较昨持平； | 豆粕 （43%） 现货基差M2601+50， 较昨-10； 12月M2601+20， 持平； | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 12-1月M2601+30/+60； | 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas inventory increase may limit the price increase of copper [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 92,970 with a daily increase of 0.20%, and the night - session closing price was 92,400 with a decrease of 0.61%. The price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 11,675 with a daily increase of 0.09%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 412,040, an increase of 9,060 from the previous day, and the position was 658,740, an increase of 5,079. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 21,149, a decrease of 9,496, and the position was 342,000, an increase of 449 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 29,956, a decrease of 980. The LME Copper inventory was 164,550, an increase of 2,000, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 38.39%, a decrease of 0.89% [1] - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper premium/discount decreased by 27.39 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 1,500. The spot - to - futures near - month spread decreased by 40, and the near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread increased by 40 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting stated that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency. Trump said that the US inflation problem is basically solved. "Shadow Fed Chairman" Hassett believes that Powell may also think that interest rate cuts are prudent [1] - **Industry News**: In November, Chile's copper export volume was 124,422 tons, and the export volume of copper ore and concentrates was 1,054,487 tons.力拓上调了2025年铜产量预测 due to the accelerated operation of the Oyu Tolgoi copper - gold project in Mongolia. The Kamoa - Kakula joint copper mine in the DRC will have lower production in 2026 than in 2024. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a neutral trend [3]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 09 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：承压运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22275 | -70 | | 410 | 1030 | 1505 | | | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22120 | - | | l | - | । | | | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2887 | | -14 | -2 | 17 | 284 | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on December 9, 2025. Index futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, while gold, silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, and coking coal futures are likely to decline with fluctuations. Glass and crude oil futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: On December 9, IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 are likely to fluctuate and consolidate. Resistance and support levels are provided for each contract [2]. - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The T2603 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 107.74 and 107.61 yuan and resistance at 108.03 and 108.20 yuan [2]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures**: The TL2603 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with wide - range fluctuations, with support at 111.7 and 111.5 yuan and resistance at 112.3 and 112.6 yuan [2]. - **Gold Futures**: The AU2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 950.5 and 945.5 yuan/gram and facing resistance at 958.7 and 963.3 yuan/gram [2]. - **Silver Futures**: The AG2602 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 13487 and 13365 yuan/kg and facing resistance at 13918 and 14000 yuan/kg [3]. - **Copper Futures**: The CU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 91700 and 91000 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 93300 and 94000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Futures**: The AL2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22030 and 21970 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 22220 and 22300 yuan/ton [3]. - **Alumina Futures**: The AO2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2550 and 2530 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2595 and 2615 yuan/ton [3]. - **Zinc Futures**: The ZN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 22970 and 22870 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 23300 and 23400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Tin Futures**: The SN2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 314000 and 310300 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 319200 and 323700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: The PS2601 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with support at 54400 and 53600 yuan/ton and resistance at 55200 and 55700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: The LC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to have wide - range fluctuations, with resistance at 97000 and 97300 yuan/ton and support at 93500 and 91700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rebar Futures**: The RB2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3089 and 3074 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3123 and 3146 yuan/ton [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: The HC2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 3260 and 3238 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 3298 and 3306 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: The I2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 753 and 750 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 760 and 763 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: The JM2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1070 and 1050 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1110 and 1115 yuan/ton [6]. - **Glass Futures**: The FG601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 967 and 950 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1004 and 1016 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: The SA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 1100 and 1080 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 1137 and 1148 yuan/ton, and may hit a new low since listing [6]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The SC2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel and facing resistance at 454 and 456 yuan/barrel [6]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: The FU2601 contract on December 9 is likely to be weak with fluctuations, testing support at 2422 and 2394 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2485 and 2507 yuan/ton [6]. - **PTA Futures**: The TA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4654 and 4624 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4678 and 4694 yuan/ton [7]. - **PVC Futures**: The V2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 4380 and 4330 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 4433 and 4445 yuan/ton [7]. - **Methanol Futures**: The MA601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2055 and 2022 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2089 and 2104 yuan/ton [7]. - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The M2605 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, with support at 2768 and 2758 yuan/ton and resistance at 2795 and 2805 yuan/ton [7]. - **Corn Futures**: The C2601 contract on December 9 is likely to decline with fluctuations, testing support at 2227 and 2215 yuan/ton and facing resistance at 2259 and 2269 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to maintain stability while making progress and improve quality and efficiency [8]. - China's total goods trade imports and exports from January to November 2025 reached 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the growth rate of goods trade rebounded [8]. - From January to November 2025, the national tax department organized tax and fee revenues of over 29 trillion yuan and investigated 1818 "high - income and high - profile" individuals, recovering 1.523 billion yuan in taxes [9]. - The Deputy Minister of Commerce, Ling Ji, held video talks with the chairmen of the German and European Automobile Industry Associations, hoping to resolve the electric vehicle anti - subsidy case and find a solution for the global supply chain of Nexperia [9]. - Many experts expect China to continue implementing an expansionary fiscal policy in 2026, with the fiscal deficit ratio not lower than 4% in 2025, and an increase in the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds [9]. - Xiamen's "14th Five - Year Plan" proposes to explore the construction of a free - port - style special economic zone, promote cross - strait financial cooperation, and build a cross - strait common market [9]. - A 7.5 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the eastern waters near Honshu, Japan on December 8, 2025. The tsunami is not expected to affect China's coast [10]. - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9 and 10, 2025. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [10]. - US President Trump plans to sign an administrative order on AI regulation and launch an agricultural assistance program worth $12 billion [11]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October PPI data and plans to announce it together with the November 2025 PPI data on January 14, 2026 [11]. - Leaders of Ukraine, the UK, France, and Germany discussed a new peace plan for the Ukraine crisis [11]. - Japan's Q3 2025 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarter - on - quarter contraction and a 2.3% year - on - year contraction. Real wages have declined for ten consecutive months [12]. - European Central Bank hawkish executive Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are on the upside and is satisfied with the market's bet on the next interest - rate hike [12]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - The BIS warns that retail investors' "chasing behavior" is turning gold from a safe - haven asset into a speculative one, and gold and the stock market have entered an "explosive zone" [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a risk warning due to the complex international situation and large fluctuations in the precious metals market [12]. - On December 8, 2025, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices fell due to increased supply and weak demand [13]. - On December 8, 2025, international precious metal futures prices generally fell due to market pricing of the Fed's policy, a short - term rebound of the US dollar, and profit - taking [13]. - On December 8, 2025, most London base metals prices fell, affected by the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting [14]. - On December 8, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with most non - US currencies falling [14][15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Index Futures**: On December 8, 2025, major index futures contracts showed a trend of opening slightly higher, rising and then falling, and finally closing higher. They are expected to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [15][16][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2603 had a slight increase, while the 30 - year contract TL2603 declined. They are expected to have different trends on December 9, 2025 [40][44]. - **Gold Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2602 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [46][47]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the silver futures contract AG2602 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [54][55]. - **Copper Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new high since listing [57]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the aluminum futures contract AL2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [62]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the alumina futures contract AO2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [66]. - **Zinc Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the zinc futures contract ZN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [71][72]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the tin futures contract SN2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a strong - biased fluctuation in December 2025 [74]. - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the polysilicon futures contract PS2601 had a large decline. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [80][81]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 had a slight increase. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and in December 2025 [85]. - **Rebar Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the rebar futures contract RB2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [91]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [97]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the iron ore futures contract I2605 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [99]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2605 declined significantly. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [103][104]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the glass futures contract FG601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025 [107]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the soda ash futures contract SA601 declined. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have a weak and wide - range fluctuation in December 2025, possibly hitting a new low since listing [111]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2601 had a slight increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025, and have wide - range fluctuations in December 2025 [113]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the fuel oil futures contract FU2601 had a significant increase. It is expected to be weak with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [119]. - **PTA Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the PTA futures contract TA601 had a slight increase. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [121]. - **PVC Futures**: On December 8, 2025, the PVC futures contract V2601 had a slight decline. It is expected to decline with fluctuations on December 9, 2025 [122]. - **Methanol Futures**: On December