Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory **Fundamental Tracking** - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. **Domestic Market** - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. **International Market** - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. **Trend Strength** The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

2025 年 08 月 20 日 短纤：短期震荡市，关注旺季需求临近 瓶片：下方空间有限，震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2509 | 昨日 6344 | 前日 ୧368 | 变化 -24 | PF09-10 | 昨日 -88 | 前日 -94 | 变化 6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6432 | 6462 | -30 | PF10-11 | ර | 86 | -80 | | | 短纤2511 | 6426 | 6376 | 50 | PF基差 | 53 | 18 | 35 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 287751 | 300740 | -12989 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 485 | 6. 480 | 5 | | | 短纤成交量 | 258264 | 304858 | -465 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Main topic: Pig market analysis, waiting for the end - of - month spot verification [1] Group 2: Analysts - Zhou Xiaoqiu, investment consulting qualification number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com [2] - Wu Hao, investment consulting qualification number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot prices - Henan spot price: 13,880 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 13,550 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] - Guangdong spot price: 14,990 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures prices - Pig 2509: 13,780 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 140 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511: 13,900 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601: 14,200 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Trading volume and open interest - Pig 2509: trading volume 3,384 lots, down 4,450 lots from the previous day; open interest 13,091 lots, down 1,000 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2511: trading volume 20,770 lots, down 14,938 lots from the previous day; open interest 67,934 lots, down 3,259 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2601: trading volume 7,300 lots, down 5,823 lots from the previous day; open interest 47,359 lots, down 424 lots from the previous day [3] Price spreads - Pig 2509 basis: 100 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511 basis: - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601 basis: - 320 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 9 - 11 spread: - 120 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 11 - 1 spread: - 300 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive pressure on inventory, demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. Recent daily transactions were poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Weekend spot performance was again below expectations, and there was a sentiment of panic selling [5] - The September contract was still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, which increased the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - narrowing market continued [5] - The sentiment of purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center, and profit - taking and stop - loss should be noted [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level was 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report suggests that lithium carbonate will experience range - bound fluctuations, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances [1]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Market Data**: - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 87,580, down 1,720 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 28,450, down 21,903; and the open interest was 76,200, down 4,917 [2]. - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 87,540, down 1,700 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 734,929, down 301,399; and the open interest was 414,097, down 7,009 [2]. - The warehouse receipt volume was 23,615, up 60 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Price Differences**: - The spot - 2509 was - 1,880, up 2,820 compared to T - 1; the spot - 2511 was - 1,840, up 2,800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The 2509 - 2511 basis was 40, down 20 compared to T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,300, unchanged compared to T - 1; the spot - CIF was 16,035, up 1,073 compared to T - 1 [2]. - **Raw Material Prices**: - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,185, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 9,700, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400, up 1,100 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 82,710, up 1,000 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 8,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 36,490, up 320 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage type) was 35,085, up 315 compared to T - 1; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage type) was 32,085, up 255 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 114,530, up 300 compared to T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,890, up 300 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 146,070, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,300, up 800 compared to T - 1 [2]. - The price of electrolyte (for ternary power) was 21,850, unchanged compared to T - 1; the price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) was 17,850, unchanged compared to T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,941 yuan/ton, up 1,147 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price range was 84,300 - 87,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price range was 82,700 - 84,100 yuan/ton, with an average of 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [3]. - On August 19, Jiangte Motor announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yichun Yinli New Energy Co., Ltd., which had previously suspended production for equipment maintenance, would resume production soon [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

2025 年 8 月 20 日 花生：关注新花生情况 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 花生基本面数据 | | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 昨日价格 8,200 | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | | | | | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 8,160 | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,000 | 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,775 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK510 | 元/吨 | | 8,044 | -0.02 | | | | PK511 | 元/吨 | | 7,810 | -0.38 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK510 | 手 | 19,784 | -11944 | 71,165 | -2360 | | | PK511 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated August 20, 2025, and focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon sentiment has weakened, with a trend intensity of -1; polysilicon sentiment has been boosted by market news, with a trend intensity of 1 [1][4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,625 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan from T - 5 and 70 yuan from T - 22; PS2511 closing price is 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1 and 705 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 trading volume is 438,313 lots, down 72,937 lots from T - 1, 82,191 lots from T - 5, and 1,266,686 lots from T - 22; PS2511 trading volume is 425,548 lots, down 194,013 lots from T - 1 and 167,274 lots from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 open interest is 286,605 lots, down 11,014 lots from T - 1 but up 7,745 lots from T - 5, and down 100,647 lots from T - 22; PS2511 open interest is 135,517 lots, down 3,206 lots from T - 1 and 4,222 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5 and 130 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is - 5,260 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 5 and 1,655 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 100 yuan from T - 5; Yunnan Si4210 price is 9,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 50 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - feed price is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5 but up 1,000 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2,676 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 625 yuan from T - 5; silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 3,355 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 566 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5 but down 14.5 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and T - 22; industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, up 0.11 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.3 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.7 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Yunnan silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Xinjiang washed coking coal price is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Ningxia washed coking coal price is 970 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from T - 5 and 95 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon, Aluminum Alloy - DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 1,000 yuan from T - 5; DMC enterprise profit is - 1,032 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan from T - 1 but down 872 yuan from T - 5 [2] - ADC12 price is 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but up 100 yuan from T - 5; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from T - 1 but up 150 yuan from T - 5 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers produced by Corning at its Michigan manufacturing park, with wafer deliveries expected to start in the second half of 2026 [4] - The US has 25 GW of active polysilicon refining capacity, 2 GW of cell capacity, and 57.5 GW of module capacity, but no polysilicon ingot or wafer capacity [4]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The spot basis remains relatively stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, but overall it is still average, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly. The ICE cotton futures are in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For CF2601, the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume was 209,409 lots, a decrease of 31,617 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 759,524 lots, a decrease of 4,507 lots. For CY2511, the closing price was 20,145 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 20,160 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume was 7,879 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 21,914 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound, a 0.46% decline [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 249 with no change. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,983 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton (0.33%) from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,243 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 75.34 cents/pound, an increase of 0.26 cents/pound (0.35%) from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (- 0.10%) from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,190 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the cotton spot trading is average, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The offers of cotton in inland warehouses are relatively numerous, and the spot basis remains relatively stable. Different regions and qualities of cotton have different sales bases [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market has rebounded, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it is still average. The feedback from textile enterprises varies greatly, and the yarn price continues to rise slightly [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined slightly yesterday. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season, providing support for the ICE cotton futures. The ICE cotton is in short - term oscillation waiting for new drivers [2]. 3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is mainly driven by macro factors and is undergoing a correction; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and is also in a correction phase [1] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was up 0.57%, and night - session down 1.06%; soybean oil's day - session rose 0.07%, and night - session fell 1.99%; rapeseed oil's day - session rose 0.47%, and night - session fell 1.32%. The Malaysian palm oil futures fell 0.07% in the day - session and 1.00% in the night - session, and CBOT soybean oil futures fell 2.78% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 145,401 hands, and open interest by 25,027 hands; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 63,139 hands, and open interest by 35,479 hands; rapeseed oil's trading volume decreased by 15,682 hands, and open interest by 3,935 hands [1] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 140 yuan/ton, while the spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different changes, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong being 122 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures changing from 242 to 210 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects Malaysian palm oil prices to stay above 4,300 ringgit due to biodiesel demand, tight soybean oil supply, and slow palm oil supply growth [2] - As of August 17, EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 1.74 million tons (compared to 1.86 million tons last year), rapeseed imports were 0.33 million tons (compared to 0.57 million tons last year), and palm oil imports were 0.29 million tons (compared to 0.5 million tons last year) [4] - Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August are 8.9 million tons (previously 8.8 million tons), soybean meal exports are 2.33 million tons (previously 2.27 million tons), and corn exports are 8.05 million tons (previously 7.97 million tons) [4] - ProFarmer's crop survey estimates that in 2025, Ohio's corn yield will be 185.69 bushels per acre (compared to 183.29 bushels per acre in 2024), South Dakota's corn yield will be 174.18 bushels per acre (compared to 156.51 bushels per acre in 2024), Ohio's average soybean pod number will be 1,287.28 (compared to 1,229.93 in 2024), and South Dakota's average soybean pod number will be 1,188.45 (compared to 1,025.89 in 2024) [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [6]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 20 日 LPG：近月挤仓风险仍在 丙烯：成本支撑偏弱 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,851 | -0.26% | 3,843 | -0.21% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,319 | -0.30% | 4,277 | -0.97% | | | PL2601 | 6,451 | -0.63% | 6,378 | -1.13% | | | PL2602 | 6,500 | -0.38% | 6,433 | -1.03% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 66,824 | -9147 | 64,241 | -9558 | | 持 仓&成 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].