【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,817 | 1,754 | 6 3 234238 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,789 | 1,755 | 3 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 401,998 | 167,760 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 213,033 | 183,795 | 29238 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 3,573 | 3,573 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,438,396 | 588,870 | 849526 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -87 | -24 | -63 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -197 | -134 | -63 | | | | 东光-盘面 | （最便宜可交割品） | -97 | -34 | -63 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Follow macro trends and undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Soybean: Weak atmosphere in the soybean sector, adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Corn: Run weakly [2][15] - Sugar: The import volume in July increased significantly year-on-year [2][18] - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton [2][23] - Eggs: Weak long - term expectations [2][29] - Live pigs: Wait for the spot market verification at the end of the month [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][37] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.57% and a night - session decrease of 1.06%. Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.07% and a night - session decrease of 1.99%. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to stay above 4300 ringgit [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.44% and a night - session decrease of 1.04%. DCE soybean 2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.25% and a night - session decrease of 0.81%. CBOT soybeans 11 closed down 0.70% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good soybean yield potential and long - position profit - taking. Private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 1.10% and a night - session decrease of 0.27%. C2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.60% and a night - session decrease of 0.23%. The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.3 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5661 yuan/ton. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.18% and a flat night - session. ICE cotton 12 closed down 0.46%. Cotton spot trading was average, and the cotton yarn market showed a slight recovery [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509 closed down 4.27%, and Egg 2601 closed down 1.64%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 485, a decrease from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts increased year - on - year. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [33]. - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms increased in August, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support level of LH2509 is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.02%, and PK511 had a decrease of 0.38%. New peanuts in some areas are gradually being listed, with limited supply [37][38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., with different trends such as strong, weak, and neutral [2][10][11]. - For each commodity, the report analyzes factors like cost, supply, demand, and inventory to form views and suggestions on trading strategies [10][11][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the 9 - 1 month - spread continues to strengthen. PX may be stronger than oil prices, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Fuhua Group [10]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is in a volatile market with limited downside space. The supply is marginally tightened, and the demand improves month - on - month. It is recommended to maintain the 9 - 1 reverse spread [11]. - **MEG**: Import arrivals decrease, and there is marginal destocking. The 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. The basis strengthens [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a weakly volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis and spread show certain changes. The automobile industry has policy support, but there are still limitations to the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, there is a callback, and in the medium - term, it remains range - bound. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has decreased. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The production volume in September is expected to increase, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The market is in a neutral trend [19][33]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound trend. The cost decreases due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply pressure increases, but there may be a phased relief in September. The demand will improve gradually, and the inventory provides some support [35][36]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious highlights, and the supply pressure increases. However, there is uncertainty in the cost, and attention should be paid to the low - level support [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially the demand from alumina. The export support is strong, but the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream may limit the profit expansion [42][43]. Pulp - It is in a volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis strengthens. The international price of pulp is weak, and the demand market is sluggish [45][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price decreases, and the basis weakens. The market trading is average, but the downstream rigid demand has increased slightly [51][52]. Methanol - It is in a volatile trend. The port inventory accumulates, and in the short - term, the 01 contract is weak due to the high inventory. In the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [54][57]. Urea - In the short - term, it is driven by news, and the upside space is narrowing. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the market speculation is strong. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and speculative sentiment [59][60]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is weakly volatile, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [62][64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. The futures prices of different contracts show certain changes, and the spread also changes [67][68]. - **Propylene**: The cost support is weak. The PDH and other industrial chain operating rates show some changes [68]. PVC - The trend is weak. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC exports from China will affect export competitiveness. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates [75]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a weakly volatile trend with reduced short - term fluctuations. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market rebounds slightly [78]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile consolidation, and it is advisable to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. The futures prices of different contracts change, and the freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [80].

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report on green finance and new energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to news - related risks [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It will oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [2][10] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news has boosted sentiment [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,330 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from T - 1. There were also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [4] - **News**: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental issues in Indonesian industrial parks, changes in mining quotas, production suspensions due to losses, and production cuts in Chinese steel mills [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 87,580 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain [11] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and Jiangte Motor's subsidiary resumed production [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1. The PS2511 closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of related products [15] - **News**: T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers from Corning, with expected deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [17]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend and strategy outlooks for multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views are as follows: - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite has not significantly declined, and support remains [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is biased towards fundamentals, with weak and volatile trends [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.13%). The open interest increased by 674 to 449,577 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose by 2.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton, while PB fines (61.5%) dropped by 2.0 yuan/ton to 768.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (- 1.48%), with a trading volume of 1,121,791 lots and an open interest of 1,608,694 lots, a decrease of 1,199 lots. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%), with a trading volume of 380,711 lots and an open interest of 1,184,978 lots, a decrease of 17,753 lots. Spot prices generally declined [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month). Other macro and industry data are also provided [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for rebar is - 1 (weak), and for hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2509, the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 44,328 lots and an open interest of 41,200 lots. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5,842 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 193,093 lots and an open interest of 114,885 lots. Spot prices also declined [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, the price ranges of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal (JM2601), the closing price was 1,194.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a trading volume of 1,364,959 lots and an open interest of 713,865 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots. For coke (J2601), the closing price was 1,708.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a trading volume of 26,198 lots and an open interest of 38,416 lots, a decrease of 129 lots. Spot prices showed mixed trends [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 2. Report's Core View - The core view is to provide the latest price changes of international crude oil futures and relevant news, and give an investment suggestion of short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.07 per barrel, a 1.69% decline, at $62.35 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.81 per barrel, a 1.21% decline, at $65.79 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.87% decline, at 480.90 yuan per barrel [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The value range of trend strength is [- 2,2] [2][3] API Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2417000 barrels, expected - 1587000 barrels, and the previous value was 1519000 barrels. There are also data on API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, refined oil inventory, heating oil inventory, crude oil imports, and refined oil imports [2] International News - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Macron suggests the meeting be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán discussed Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and Budapest as a possible meeting place. The EU Commission spokesperson said to continue pressuring Russia, and NATO and EU accession issues should be decided by Ukraine. Trump believes all indicators show that interest rates need to be significantly lowered. Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Wang Yi and said that India and China are partners rather than rivals [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the decline in the stock index option market and the decrease in volatility, investors can consider selling call options at high prices [1]. 3. Summary of Related Content 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, Shanghai 50 Index, and most ETFs declined, while the closing price of the CSI 1000 Index increased slightly. The trading volumes of most underlying assets decreased, such as the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index with a trading volume of 250.82 billion shares, a decrease of 50.66 billion shares [1]. - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volumes of various options decreased significantly, while the open - interest of most options increased. For example, the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 264,630, a decrease of 94,783, and the open - interest was 256,493, an increase of 17,161. The VL - PCR and OI - PCR of most options showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - Month Options**: The implied volatility (ATM - IV) of most options decreased, such as the Shanghai 50 index option with an ATM - IV of 17.77%, a decrease of 1.27%. The historical volatility (HV) also showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Next - Month Options**: The ATM - IV of most next - month options also decreased, for example, the Shanghai 50 index option with an ATM - IV of 18.90%, a decrease of 1.52% [4]. 3.3 Option Index Data Statistics - **Each Option Type**: The report presents multiple charts for each option type, including the full - contract PCR chart, the main - contract skewness chart, the volatility cone chart, and the volatility term - structure chart, which can help investors analyze the market conditions of different options [8][12][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market on August 18, 2025, and forecasts the market trends on August 19, 2025. It also provides macro - economic news and commodity - related information. The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on August 18, and most futures contracts have specific trend expectations for August 19, including strong, weak, wide - range, and consolidation trends [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trends Forecast for August 19, 2025 - **Strong - trending Contracts**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509, FG601, M2601 are expected to be strong - trending. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4275 and 4300 points, and support levels at 4238 and 4226 points [2][5][8]. - **Weak - trending Contracts**: T2509, TL2509, AU2510, AG2510, CU2509, AO2601, SI2511, V2601, MA601 are expected to be weak - trending. For instance, AU2510 has support levels at 773.3 and 767.0 yuan/gram, and resistance levels at 777.3 and 781.2 yuan/gram [3][4][6]. - **Wide - range - trending Contracts**: PS2511, LC2511, JM2601, SA601, SC2510 are expected to have wide - range trends. For example, PS2511 has resistance levels at 53700 and 55300 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4][5][6]. - **Consolidating Contracts**: AL2510, RB2510, HC2510, I2601, TA601 are expected to consolidate. For example, AL2510 has support levels at 20540 and 20470 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 20640 and 20700 yuan/ton [3][5][6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Chinese government emphasizes enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and promoting consumption and investment. The real - estate market is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. - The US, Ukraine, and other countries have political and economic events, such as the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, and the potential trilateral talks among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine may purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [10]. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [10]. 3.3 Commodity - related Information - On August 18, 2025, due to geopolitical risks, the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose. The US crude oil main contract rose 0.97% to $62.58/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 0.97% to $66.49/barrel [11]. - International precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07/ounce [11]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum fell 0.71% to $2588.50/ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00/ton, and LME copper fell 0.22% to $9752.00/ton [12]. 3.4 A - share Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.84%, and the North - bound 50 Index rose 6.79%, hitting a new high [15][16]. - The market turnover reached 2.81 trillion yuan, higher than the previous day's 2.27 trillion yuan. The A - share market was driven by various types of funds, including hot money, leveraged funds, private funds, institutional funds, and retail funds [16]. - The number of new accounts opened at securities brokerage departments increased, with the year - on - year increase in new customers generally ranging from 30% to 50% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The central bank's Q2 monetary policy implementation report indicates that there are more positive factors for a moderate recovery in price levels, and promoting service consumption can help boost domestic demand [8]. - The hog market is under pressure with an oversupply situation, and the 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish, with short - term contracts showing some resilience and long - term contracts facing potential adjustments [11]. - Various commodities have different trends, such as gold and silver being affected by PPI data, copper lacking driving forces and oscillating, and zinc facing downward pressure [13][17][22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Central Bank Policy and Consumption - The central bank's Q2 2025 monetary policy implementation report emphasizes that promoting service consumption by improving high - quality service supply is important. In 2024, the service consumption proportion in residents' per - capita consumption expenditure was about 46.1%, with significant growth potential [8]. 3.2 Hog Market - Since July, leading hog groups have increased supply and reduced weight, causing the spot price to decline. The market's previous bullish expectations have failed, and there is an oversupply situation. The 9 - month contract is expected to shift to a discount structure [9][10]. 3.3 Bond Market - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bearish. The central bank's policy emphasizes "continuing easing" and "structural adjustment." Short - term contracts have some resilience, while long - term contracts may face adjustments due to inflation expectations, macro - policies, and equity market risk preferences [11]. 3.4 Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are affected by PPI data. Gold and silver prices declined slightly, and their trend intensities are - 1 [13][17][20]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and oscillates. US 7 - month PPI growth and changes in Chilean copper production and China's copper imports affect the market [22]. - **Zinc**: Faces downward pressure, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][25][26]. - **Lead**: LME inventory reduction provides some support for prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][28][29]. - **Tin**: Oscillates within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [13][32][33]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum's volatility converges, alumina's center of gravity moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are 0, and that of alumina is - 1 [13][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel oscillates narrowly based on fundamentals, and stainless steel oscillates due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][38][42]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply disruptions and improving demand may lead to a continued bullish oscillation. The trend intensity is 1 [13][43][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment changes, and polysilicon requires attention to market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46][49]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend intensity is 1 [13][51][52]. - **Steel Products**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils oscillate widely, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][54][58]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferrosilicon oscillates weakly due to weak sector sentiment, and silicomanganese oscillates widely with a firm spot price. Their trend intensities are both 0 [13][59][61]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both oscillate at high levels, and their trend intensities are both 0 [13][62][64]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, and the trend intensity is 0 [13][65][68]. - **Petrochemicals**: Paraxylene is in a short - term oscillating market with increased supply and decreased demand but improved terminal demand. PTA has a weak reality and strong expectations, suitable for a monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG oscillates within a range, and attention should be paid to terminal demand improvement [13][69].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low levels; for soybean oil, the bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 9,534 yuan/ton, up 1.49%, and 9,620 yuan/ton at night, up 0.90%; the soybean oil main contract was 8,548 yuan/ton during the day, down 0.16%, and remained the same at night; the rapeseed oil main contract was 9,852 yuan/ton during the day, up 0.46%, and 9,886 yuan/ton at night, up 0.35%. The Malaysian palm oil main contract was 4,523 ringgit/ton during the day, up 1.00%, and 4,566 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.15%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract was 53.29 cents/pound during the day, up 0.11% [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 232,837 lots, with an increase of 114,971 lots, and the open interest was 148,929 lots, a decrease of 23,676 lots; the soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 146,569 lots, an increase of 84,495 lots, and an open interest of 191,498 lots, a decrease of 30,549 lots; the rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 44,996 lots, a decrease of 21,431 lots, and an open interest of 46,810 lots, a decrease of 11,102 lots [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,570 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan; the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,110 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [3] - **Basis**: The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 36 yuan/ton; that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 262 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 108 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil main contracts was 242 yuan/ton; that between soybean oil and palm oil main contracts was - 1,068 yuan/ton; the palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 32 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 26 yuan/ton [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - According to the data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4] - SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 15 was 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase compared to the same period last month [6] - The weekly crop growth report released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday morning showed that as of the week ending August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and the same period last year. The flowering rate of soybeans was 95%, up from 91% the previous week, higher than 94% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The pod - setting rate of soybeans was 82%, up from 71% the previous week, higher than 80% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with different levels of strength classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [7]