2025 年 12 月 10 日 锌：压力渐显 数据来源：Bloomberg，Reuters，同花顺 iFinD，SMM，国泰君安期货研究 【新闻】 1. 何立峰：中美应不断拉长合作清单，为两国经贸关系打开新的合作空间。何立峰表示，今年以来中 美两国元首多次通话并在韩国釜山成功会晤，达成一系列重要共识。双方应在两国元首战略引领下，坚持 正确方向，保持合作势头，不断拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单。中国即将迈入"十五五"规划开局之年，将 持续扩大高水平对外开放，欢迎更多美国企业来华投资兴业，力促中美经贸关系平稳健康可持续发展。（华 尔街见闻） 2. 美批准向中国出售英伟达 H200 人工智能芯片，外交部回应。中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆表示："我们 注意到有关报道。中方一贯主张中美通过合作实现互利共赢。"（华尔街见闻） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期 货 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 PP：上游抛压，粉粒料价差倒挂 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6192 | -1.32% | 407892 | -11906 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | -72 | | -75 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -88 | | -95 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6130 | | 6150 | | | | 华东 | 6120 | | 6200 | | | | 华南 | 6230 | | 6270 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 成本端，原油预计延续窄幅波动，对 PP 成本端支撑有限。供应端，短期暂无新增产能冲击，存量检修 装置集中 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - LLDPE shows a unilateral decline, and the basis turns positive passively. The raw - material end of crude oil price fluctuates, the monomer link rebounds slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market fluctuates at a low level, downstream demand weakens marginally, and the upstream offers discounts at the end of the year, with a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of L2601 yesterday was 6557, a daily decline of 1.29%, with a trading volume of 447,602 and a position change of - 34,931 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 01 contract was 13 yesterday, compared with - 43 the previous day; the spread between the 01 - 05 contracts was - 53 yesterday, compared with - 65 the previous day [1] - **Important Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price was 6,570 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,600 yuan/ton the previous day; in the East China region, it was 6,750 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,840 yuan/ton the previous day; in the South China region, it was 6,670 yuan/ton yesterday, compared with 6,750 yuan/ton the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - The futures market is under downward pressure, and the basis of North China LL has strengthened passively to a premium. The number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. Last week, the futures rebounded, but the upstream sold at discounted prices. With the marginal weakening of demand, the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor, and the basis is under pressure. The US dollar offers from the Middle East in November decreased this week as expected, the quantity of US offers decreased, and the prices dropped slightly. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed due to turnover, and it is expected that there will be more arrivals in Q1 of 2026 [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw - material end fluctuates, the monomer link rebounds slightly, and the supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand has weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold goods has weakened. The upstream offers discounts at the end of the year, with a slight reduction in factory inventory and a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the current maintenance plan in December is neutral, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [2]

2025 年 12 月 10 日 短纤：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251210 瓶片：中期有压力，逢高做缩加工费 20251210 | | 短纤2601 | 昨日 6180 | 前日 6220 | 变化 -40 | PF01-02 | 昨日 -2 | 前日 -6 | 变化 ব | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6182 | 6226 | -44 | PF02-03 | 8 | 12 | -4 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6174 | 6214 | -40 | PF主力基差 | 108 | 74 | 34 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 172136 | 174928 | -2792 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 290 | 6. 300 | -10 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190815 昨日 | 182124 前日 | 8691 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 66% 昨日 | 50% 前日 | 16% 变化 | | | 瓶片2601 | 5576 | 5628 | -52 | PR0 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 碳酸锂：现货成交仍偏淡，偏弱震荡 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | 2601合约（收盘价） | | 91,000 | -2,060 | -3,860 | -4,400 | 8,700 | 14,360 | | 2601合约（成交量） | | 55,384 | -38,676 | -17,812 | -455,895 | -755,271 | -24,623 | | 2601合约（持仓量） | | 150,660 | -19,773 | -86,722 | -192,539 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Fuel oil has weakened again, and the center of the futures price has continued to decline; low-sulfur fuel oil has shown a narrow-range oscillation, and the price spread between high- and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has remained stable for the time being [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Change**: The closing prices of FU2601, FU2602, LU2601, and LU2602 were 2,418 yuan/ton (-3.59%), 2,442 yuan/ton (-1.33%), 2,989 yuan/ton (-2.67%), and 3,014 yuan/ton (-1.74%) respectively; the settlement prices decreased by 1.33%, 1.48%, 1.74%, and 1.70% respectively [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of FU2601, FU2602, LU2601, and LU2602 were 443,893 lots, 177,549 lots, 5,063 lots, and 88,086 lots respectively; the open interests were 186,666 lots, 119,788 lots, 11,322 lots, and 55,826 lots respectively. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts increased, while others decreased [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil decreased by 19,990 to 6,100, and the warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil decreased by 330 to 40 [1] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of high- and low-sulfur fuels in various regions decreased to varying degrees, with the Singapore FOB price of high-sulfur fuel oil (3.5%S) dropping by 2.96% to $333.7/ton, and the low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%S) dropping by 2.37% to $415.0/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads of FU01 - 02, LU01 - 02, and LU01 - FU01 were -24 yuan/ton, -25 yuan/ton, and 571 yuan/ton respectively; the spreads between some futures contracts and Singapore MOPS prices decreased [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：再创新高，突破 60 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 961.04 | 0.80% | 958.72 | 0.15% | | | 黄金T+D | 956.00 | 0.80% | 954.99 | 0.20% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4227.70 | -0.24% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4196.37 | -0.23% | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 13687 | 1.94% | 13788.00 | 2.67% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 13639 | 1.58% | 13756 | 1.91% | | | Comex白银2512 | 58.800 | 2.21% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现 ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日 生猪：提前交易冬至预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11280 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11650 | | 150 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12410 | | 250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11575 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11450 | | 65 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 25 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前 ...

| | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,648 | -0.67% | 8,712 | 0.74% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,190 | -0.49% | 7,998 | -2.34% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,393 | -1.15% | 9,370 | -0.24% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,104 | 0.24% | 4,102 | -0.10% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.99 | -0.37% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 303,911 | 21703 | 195,544 | -11,692 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 124,657 | -25,432 | 227,495 | -30,639 | ...

多晶硅：平台公司落地，盘面仍逢低做多为主 2025 年 12 月 10 日 工业硅：关注新疆后续环保情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 8,340 323,510 | -335 71,714 | -635 94,515 | -880 -44,306 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 185,271 | -1,816 | -2,071 | -83,030 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 55,610 | 1,065 | -705 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 158,738 | 768 | -87,060 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 68,874 | -10,493 | -60,422 ...