Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is strong, and the volatility of the futures market has increased [1]. - In the polysilicon market, there have been more disturbances in the news this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8,805 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from the previous trading day. The PS2511 contract's closing price was 52,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,310 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts showed significant changes [2]. - **Price and Profit**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon products, such as Xinjiang 99 silicon and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock, have fluctuated. The profit of silicon plants and polysilicon enterprises has also changed, with silicon plant profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan still in the negative range [2]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.5 million tons, and the enterprise inventory was 17.1 million tons. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory was 24.2 million tons. There were slight changes in inventory levels compared to previous periods [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials for industrial silicon, such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes, have shown different degrees of stability or change. For example, the price of graphite electrodes increased by 250 yuan/ton compared to a week ago [2]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain**: In the photovoltaic industry chain, the prices of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have also changed. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 16.9 yuan/kg, showing an improvement compared to previous periods [2]. - **Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy**: The price of DMC in the organic silicon market was 11,400 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 350 yuan from the previous trading day. The profit of DMC enterprises was - 364 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy market, the price of ADC12 was 20,350 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises was - 360 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On August 11, the Xining Market Supervision Bureau organized a launch meeting for a photovoltaic industry patent navigation project to strengthen the construction of intellectual property standardization pilot cities, integrate resources to empower the photovoltaic industry, and help build a defensive patent system [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Iron Ore: Macro Risk Appetite Has Not Significantly Corrected, Support Remains" and was released on August 18, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The macro risk appetite for iron ore has not significantly corrected, and there is still support [2] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of I 2601 was 776.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%. The position was 447,326 lots, down 4,631 lots [3] Spot Prices - Imported ores: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 884.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 772.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 745.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 645.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. Domestic ores: The price of Handan ore (66%) was 912.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 830.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - The basis of I 2601 against Super Special fines was 76.8 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton; the basis of I 2601 against Jinbuba fines was 50.3 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between I 2509 - I 2601 was 16.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between I 2601 - I 2605 was 20.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton. The spread between Carajás fines - PB fines was 112.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 27.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between PB fines - Super Special fines was 127.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - On August 15, 2025 (local time), the Trump administration in the United States announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products in the tariff list [3] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3]

2025 年 08 月 18 日 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 甲醇基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | | | 收盘价（元/吨） | 2,412 | 2,435 | -23 | | | | 结算价（元/吨） | 2,430 | 2,459 | -29 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 甲醇主力 （01合约） | 成交量（手） 持仓量（手） | 486,683 623,445 | 427,587 557,439 | 59096 66006 | | | | 仓单数量（吨） | 10,968 | 11,168 | -200 | | | | 成交额（万元） | 1,182,618 | 1,051,573 | 131045 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | -87 | 1 0 | -97 | | | 月 差 | MA09-MA01 | -96 | -95 | - 1 | | 现货市场 | 价 格 | 江苏出罐 | 2,340 | 2,370 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report focuses on the zinc market, highlighting the visible inventory accumulation. It also presents the latest price, trading volume, inventory, and other fundamental data of zinc, along with the trend intensity of zinc. Additionally, it includes relevant news such as Trump's statements and China's central bank's monetary policy [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,505 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day, while LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at $2,796.5/ton, down 1.62% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 83,222 lots, an increase of 5,192 lots, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,973 lots, an increase of 3,256 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 76,347 lots, a decrease of 4,451 lots, and the open interest of LME zinc was 190,988 lots, a decrease of 2,725 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$5.22/ton, a decrease of $4.69/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 20,020 tons, an increase of 2,923 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 76,325 tons, a decrease of 1,125 tons [1]. 3.2 News - Trump stated that the possibility of reaching an agreement now depends on Zelensky, and parties are arranging a meeting between Zelensky and Putin. There is currently no plan to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil, but he may consider it in two or three weeks [2]. - The People's Bank of China aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with positive factors increasing for a moderate recovery in price levels. It will further improve the interest rate regulation framework, increase credit support for technology - based SMEs, and correct pro - cyclical market behaviors [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the zinc market [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers are forced to hold back livestock. The demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The weekend spot performance is again below expectations. The September contract still has a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the premium - narrowing market. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the March出栏 cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of the far - end price center moving down. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 13,825 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,945 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Pig 2509 contract, the trading volume is 3,591 lots, a decrease of 2,181 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 15,721 lots, a decrease of 888 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 20,445 lots, a decrease of 13,974 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,842 lots, an increase of 132 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 9,908 lots, a decrease of 5,839 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 46,745 lots, an increase of 532 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 55 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is - 345 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 280 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading in crude oil and holding long - short spreads [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, along with relevant news and data, and indicates the current trend strength of crude oil [1][4]. 3. Detailed Summaries International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed up $1.31 per barrel, a 2.09% increase, at $63.96 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed up $1.21 per barrel, a 1.84% increase, at $66.84 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed up 4.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase, at 490.50 yuan per barrel [1]. News and Data - The US announced additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US. Trump said he has no current plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil but might reconsider in two or three weeks [2]. - As of the week ending August 12, the speculative net short position in WTI crude oil decreased by 27,177 contracts to 4,048 contracts [2]. - The market speculates that if Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may sanction Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil [2]. - Putin asked Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk region during his meeting with Trump in Alaska. In exchange, he would freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and not launch new offensives. Zelensky is unwilling to give up Donetsk but is willing to discuss territorial issues with Trump in Washington [3]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points and overseas indices in the UK, US, and Japan hitting record highs. The strong market is supported by a positive macro - environment, including no significant escalation of trade frictions, no obvious negative policy turn, and positive liquidity expectations before the Fed's September rate cut. The rising stock market has attracted margin trading and new - account funds, forming a positive feedback loop [1]. - The domestic economic supply and demand are both weak in July due to the policy shift towards anti - involution and the weak demand side such as real estate. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report shows a trend of policy shifting towards quality and efficiency, with less emphasis on traditional growth - stabilizing and capital - market - related structural tools. However, the current market risk appetite is strong, and the short - term impact is limited. The market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern, and the trends of relevant variables should be noted [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic policy and economic changes, and the Fed's policy direction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Spot Market Review - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and telecommunications sectors had relatively high increases, while in the CSI 500 index, the financial real - estate and information sectors led the gains [10]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main stock index futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [12][13][18]. 3.3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 15th, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 31.81 times, and 43.9 times respectively [21][22]. 3.4. Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly - established equity - biased funds are presented. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net capital injection [25]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1. Short - Term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. 4.2. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish mindset. The core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is expected to be between 4083 and 4294 points; for the IH2509 main contract, it is between 2775 and 2903 points; for the IC2509 main contract, it is between 6335 and 6760 points; and for the IM2509 main contract, it is between 6838 and 7299 points. Also, maintain a strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4][5].

Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Core Viewpoint - Market trading is gradually returning to fundamentals, and the alloy market is oscillating. The alloy prices showed a weak and oscillating trend this week. Affected by the weakening sentiment of coking coal and coke, the alloy market is gradually returning to fundamentals. With potential continuous expansion of supply and weakening demand support, alloy prices may face pressure after the dissipation of the market sentiment [3][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - **Futures Price**: This week, the Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 contract oscillated, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 795,571 lots and an open interest of 60,480 lots, a decrease of 58,558 lots week-on-week. The main contract shifted to Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511, closing at 5,932 yuan/ton on Friday. The Manganese Silicon 2509 contract also oscillated, closing at 6,026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1,200,969 lots and an open interest of 153,180 lots, a decrease of 74,734 lots week-on-week [7]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of Silicon Ferrosilicon in major regions across the country were relatively stable this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B Silicon Ferrosilicon in major producing areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of Silicon Manganese in major regions across the country ranged from 5,800 to 6,100 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of -50 to 120 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Silicon Ferrosilicon was 112,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,800 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +3.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.18%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Gansu (46.7%) and Shaanxi (31.8%) [22][23]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [34]. - **Non - steel Demand**: The output of stainless - steel crude steel in July was 2.8241 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The planned output of stainless - steel crude steel in August is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in July was 68,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The export volume of Silicon Ferrosilicon in June was 34,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [34]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 60 Silicon Ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 65,180 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,590 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Silicon Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 week-on-week, equivalent to a stock of 104,580 tons, with an accumulation of 6,350 tons this week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Silicon Ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days (-1.13 days), with 13.22 days in the northern region (-0.57 days), 15 days in the eastern region (-1.71 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [43]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of Silicon Ferrosilicon expanded following the market. The weekly futures profit was 625 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4707.69%. The weekly spot profit was 143 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 53.76% and a year-on-year increase of 326.98% [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Manganese Silicon was 207,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,200 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +5.4%. The weekly operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Ningxia (61.7%) and Inner Mongolia (9.3%) [57][58]. - **Raw Materials**: - **Manganese Ore Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations for manganese ore increased. For example, South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (Mn36.9%) was 4.05 US dollars per ton - degree, an increase of 0.15 US dollars per ton - degree compared to the August offer. The port prices in Tianjin were relatively stable [64]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global outbound volume of manganese ore increased on a week-on-week basis, but the overall shipping speed slowed down. The recent inbound volume of manganese ore at ports increased on a week-on-week basis, and the demand at Tianjin Port is expected to break through previous highs [67][68]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 3,700 tons week-on-week, but still supported the overall demand for Manganese Silicon [74]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 63 Manganese Silicon sample enterprises in China was 158,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,700 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Manganese Silicon warehouse receipts was 74,797, a week-on-week decrease of 1,248, equivalent to a stock of 373,985 tons, with a reduction of 6,240 tons in warehouse receipts this week. There may be concentrated registration of warehouse receipts next week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Manganese Silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days (-1.25 days), with 13.37 days in the northern region (-0.56 days), 14.74 days in the eastern region (-2.12 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [82][83]. - **Profit**: The cost support for Manganese Silicon was relatively stable, but the profit narrowed following the price decline. The weekly futures profit was 213.72 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 8.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The weekly spot profit was - 12.28 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 155.01% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, the price continues to oscillate within a narrow range, and the low - volatility state persists. There is no need to overly worry about the inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities during price corrections, and there will be opportunities to re - enter long positions for volatility. [3][5] - For alumina, although the price rose significantly due to news from Shanxi mines during the week, the actual impact is limited, and the price may reach a certain equilibrium at the 3000 - 3200 platform level. The supply side still has multiple uncertainties, and the inventory is continuously accumulating. [6] Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - **Term Spread**: The spot premium of A00 aluminum strengthened, while the spot premium of alumina weakened. The average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average spot premium of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) changed from - 55 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Shandong alumina for the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from 71 yuan/ton to 56 yuan/ton. [11] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of SHFE aluminum remained stable. [12] - **Position and Volume**: The position of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased slightly. The position and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, with the position reaching a historical high. [14] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [19] 2. Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of August 15, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 800,000 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of July, the port inventory and port inventory days of bauxite in China continued to accumulate according to the阿拉丁口径. In July, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the inventory days in alumina plants continued to decline. As of August 15, the weekly shipping volume from Guinea ports and the floating inventory both decreased. As of August 8, the shipping volume from Australian and Guinean ports and the arrival volume of bauxite all decreased. [24][29][30] - **Alumina**: The total alumina inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 55,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants increased slightly, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the inventory at stations/on - the - way decreased. As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 3.375 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory in alumina plants decreased by 37,000 tons, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by 33,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 46,000 tons, and the inventory at yards/stations/on - the - way increased by 48,000 tons. [44][50] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate. As of August 14, the weekly inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons. [51] - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipping volume declined. As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57][59] 3. Production - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply remained stable. As of July, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly according to the SMM caliber. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite production in Shanxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased slightly according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Henan increased slightly according to the steel union caliber but decreased according to the SMM caliber. The bauxite production in Guangxi increased slightly according to the steel union caliber and increased according to the SMM caliber. [64][69] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 15, the total operating capacity of alumina in China was 95.7 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - abundant pattern of alumina fundamentals has not changed, and the alumina price may continue to be under pressure. [73] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit restoration. As of August 14, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 847,900 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week - on - week, maintaining a high level in the past six years. As the terminal consumption enters the off - season, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased seasonally, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to increase, which may bring supply pressure. [77] - **Downstream Processing**: The production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased slightly this week. The production of recycled aluminum rods decreased, and the production of aluminum rods increased slightly. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased slightly, with the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increasing. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased, the operating rate of aluminum cables and wires increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys remained unchanged. [80][84][91] 4. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit of alumina remained at a good level. This week, the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly, with the profit at 415.5 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [93] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertain factors, interfering with market expectations. [102] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained unchanged week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [103] 5. Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum widened. [111] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly, with a month - on - month increase of 52,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed a divergence, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments, awaiting market games, which may drag down the demand side. [113][115] - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month. [121]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]