1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel price: Under the fundamental logic, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent developments in Indonesia, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation. The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, which drags down the upside of the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Also, beware of potential policies in Indonesia, such as cracking down on illegal mining, changing the RKAB approval cycle, and the APNI's suggestion to re - evaluate the nickel - ore HPM formula [1]. - Stainless - steel price: The pressure in the real - world market needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price will fluctuate. The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis Nickel - The global refined nickel's visible inventory is gradually increasing, dragging down the nickel price. The long - term low - cost supply increase may change the cost curve. In the short - term and for the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation is at the boundary of the nickel - iron conversion path. The relaxation of high inventory in the nickel - iron segment slightly boosts the upside of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The decrease in the fire - method cash cost is about 2%, and it is still difficult for the price to drop sharply. The hype of nickel - ore contradictions may decline, restricting the price elasticity. Be vigilant against potential policies in Indonesia [1]. Stainless Steel - The bullish logic focuses on the moderate decline of high inventory levels, with social inventory decreasing slightly for five consecutive weeks and factory inventory pressure easing in July. There are also some structural production cuts on the supply side. The bearish view is based on actual supply - demand, as the pressure relief needs to be sustainable, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside. The profit from warehouse delivery has narrowed to 2%. The stainless - steel production plan for August shows marginal increases, but the year - on - year growth is limited [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 1,520 tons to 22,141 tons, spot inventory increasing by 443 tons to 13,755 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 5,390 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [3][4]. - The nickel - iron inventory in mid - August was 33,111 tons, a 1% decrease from the previous half - month and a 45% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is high but has slightly eased [5]. - On August 14, 2025, the total stainless - steel social inventory was 1,078,900 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 610,718 tons, a 1.93% decrease, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 468,182 tons, a 3.19% decrease [5]. - The nickel - ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 618,200 wet tons to 10,951,600 wet tons, with 10,680,000 wet tons from the Philippines. By grade, low - nickel high - iron ore was 6,089,500 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,862,100 wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the verified illegal companies and conduct an audit of the entire park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining - quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The APNI revealed that the government - approved 2025 RKAB production target is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesia's ESDM requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong started maintenance due to capacity restrictions, reducing the supply of hot - rolled coils and suspending long - term supply - agreement deliveries in August [8]. - The Indonesian president stated that they will crack down on illegal mining and have received reports on 1,063 illegal mines [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices of related products in the industrial chain, such as nickel imports, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, high - carbon ferrochrome, and battery - grade nickel sulfate [10].

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week (08.11 - 08.15), the price of US soybean futures mainly rose due to the hope of increased exports to China and the positive 8 - month USDA report. The price of domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated and increased, and the price of soybean No.1 futures fluctuated. Next week (08.18 - 08.22), it is expected that the center of the Dalian soybean meal futures price will move up, and the soybean No.1 futures price will rebound and fluctuate [2][5]. Summary by Related Content 1. Futures Price Performance - **US Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 5.7%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 3.26% [2]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main m2601 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.39%, and the main a2511 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly decrease of 0.83% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **Sales and Shipment**: In the week of August 7, the weekly net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week and were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 annual US soybean export shipment decreased by about 23% week - on - week, and the cumulative export shipment increased by about 13% year - on - year. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 2248 tons (about 2397 tons in the same period last year) [2]. - **Soybean Goodness Rate**: As of the week of August 11, the goodness rate of US soybeans was 68%, a week - on - week decrease and in line with expectations [2]. - **USDA Report**: The August USDA supply - demand report was positive, lowering the ending stocks and inventory - to - consumption ratios of global and US soybeans in 2025/26 [2][3]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of the week of August 15, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October - November delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [3]. - **Weather Forecast**: From August 17 to August 30, the main US soybean - producing areas will have less precipitation and temperatures will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [3]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - **Transaction**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Pick - up**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, flat compared to the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: As of the week of August 15, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of August 8, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 860,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 68% and a year - on - year decrease of about 36% [3]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 2.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase. It is expected to reach about 2.4 million tons next week [3]. 4. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Situation - **Price**: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area and some areas in the interior remained stable compared to the previous week, and the sales prices in the sales areas were also flat [4]. - **New Bean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast production area is good, maintaining the annual production expectation [4]. - **Auction**: The auctions of state - owned and provincial - owned soybeans continued. The state - owned auctions had partial transactions, the Heilongjiang provincial - owned auction failed, and the Jilin provincial - owned auction had a transaction rate of about 68% [4]. - **Demand**: The demand in the sales areas is dull, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start of school in September will boost the demand [4].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 瓶片：震荡偏弱 CONTENTS 02 瓶片（PR） 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 03 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：短期震荡，需求支撑显现 | 供应 | 间有限。 "反内卷" 对短纤的影响集中在可能的成本抬升（如MEG），短纤老装置虽然较多，但部分经过锅炉改造，此外新老装置成本差距 | 加工费和库存压力不大，工厂保持高开工，本周工厂平均开工率91.1%，纺纱用直纺涤短开工95.3%，未来预计或随着旺季到来提高，总体空 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and the downstream industry has a strong bottom - fishing sentiment. The market will mainly fluctuate. As it enters late August, the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, with an optimistic market sentiment and strong bottom - fishing willingness. However, the raw material inventory of styrene downstream has reached a medium - to - high level after nearly a month of restocking, so the motivation for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient. In the short term, the explicit inventory will be reduced, and the implicit inventory will gradually accumulate, stabilizing market volatility. The market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3][106]. - In terms of absolute price valuation, based on a crude oil price of $65 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. As Brent crude oil rapidly rises to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6,100 - 6,300 yuan/ton [3][106]. - Regarding EB processing fees, considering the high inventory of styrene at ports and the high raw material inventory of downstream, the reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3][106]. - The trading strategy is as follows: (1) Unilateral: mainly fluctuate in the short term and bearish in the medium term; (2) Inter - period: no strategy; (3) Inter - variety: compress EB profit [3][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. The overall new device production capacity is weak, and the production pressure is mainly concentrated in August and September, with an increase of 50,000 tons in August and 100,000 tons in September. The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers in August is gradually emerging [3][106]. - Imported pure benzene: The low import volume in August has led to a relatively low visible inventory at ports. The expected import volume in September is maintained at 4 - 4.3 million tons. After October, as overseas maintenance gradually ends, the overall import pressure is still expected to be large [3][106]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Demand - Styrene: There is less maintenance in August, and the devices are operating at a high level. From August to October, styrene will face the pressure of concentrated new device production, with an average monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure has not ended [3][106]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be put into production from August to September. Recently, caprolactam factories have increased their production loads again. However, both CPL and PA6 finished product inventories are at high levels, and factories are actively restocking for the peak season. Raw material inventories of factories in Shandong and South China regions remain at high levels [3][106]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production successively in July and August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. Production remains at a high level [3][106]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and a new device of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI is continuously increasing its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short term, which can absorb the incremental production capacity of pure benzene [3][106]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: There is a strength - to - weakness conversion between EPS/PS and ABS. ABS, which previously maintained a high operating rate, has recently faced continuous high pressure on raw material and finished product inventories, and leading enterprises have started maintenance, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate. EPS and PS, which previously had a low operating rate, have started to reduce their finished product inventories, and their operating rates are gradually emerging from the off - season [3][106]. 3.3 Pure Benzene Futures Contract - Contract rules: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the quotation unit is yuan/ton, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, the contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, as well as other trading hours specified by the exchange [5]. - Margin and price limit: The initial trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 8%, the price limit is ±7%, and the price limit on the listing day is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5,900 yuan/ton [6]. - Delivery system: The delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, and the delivery system includes one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against physicals. It combines the factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualification is the hazardous chemicals qualification, and group - based delivery is adopted [7]. 3.4 Pure Benzene Industry Chain Production Capacity - In the second half of 2025, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene will gradually be put into operation. From August to September, there will be new production capacity in pure benzene, styrene, caprolactam, etc. [29]. - From 2026 to 2027, styrene production capacity will still increase significantly, with multiple new devices being put into operation [30]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the market declined mainly due to pre - Spring Festival over - stocking and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply will continue to increase, but the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The expected apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [33]. - The profit of aromatics shows an obvious seesaw effect. Attention should be paid to PX - BZ arbitrage [34]. 3.6 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene - Styrene: In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has a situation of high inventory, high profit, and high production. The high - growth period of the home appliance industry has ended, and the transmission path is complex [80][82][91]. - ABS: Production capacity continues to expand, and the operating rate, inventory, production, and profit situations have changed [93][94]. - PS: The operating rate, production, profit, and inventory of PS have shown certain trends [95][96][99]. - EPS: The operating rate, production, inventory, and profit of EPS have also changed [100][102][105].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report released on August 17, 2025, by Guotai Junan Futures, focusing on PX, PTA, and MEG [1][2] Group 2: PX Analysis Core View - PX supply increases while demand decreases, leading to a decline in processing fees. However, the gradual improvement in terminal demand may limit the downside space for the single - side price [3] Supply - China's PX operating rate is 84.3% (+2.3%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 74% (+0.4%). Domestic supply is abundant with some plants restarting or increasing loads. Overseas, there are both restarts and maintenance, with little impact on production [3][51] Demand - This week, the PTA operating rate is 76.0% (-0.2%), with some plants shutting down and others restarting [3][4] Valuation - The PX - naphtha spread is 253 US dollars/ton (-8), and the PX - MX spread is 117 US dollars/ton (-4) [3] Strategy - For single - side trading, reduce short positions; for inter - period trading, conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads; for inter - variety trading, go long on PX and short on PTA, long on PX and short on EB, long on naphtha and short on PX in the 01 contract [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Core View - Reduce short positions on dips and hold the 9 - 1 reverse spread [4] Supply - The PTA operating rate is 76.0% (-0.2%), with some plants shutting down and others restarting [4] Demand - The polyester operating rate is revised up to 89.4% (+0.6%). The recovery of the bottle - chip factory's operating rate is postponed to September. The downstream operating rate of polyester is slowly rising, and the speed of recovery will accelerate in September [4] Valuation - The PTA spot processing fee is 207 yuan/ton (+20), the 01 contract processing fee is 344 yuan/ton (+13) with a downward trend, and the 09 contract processing fee is 252 yuan/ton (-26). The basis is maintained at - 15 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - For single - side trading, reduce and exit short positions; for inter - period trading, hold the 9 - 1 month - spread reverse spread; for inter - variety trading, hold long PX and short PTA, long MEG and short PTA in the 01 contract [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Core View - The single - side trend is weakly oscillating, and hold the mid - term long MEG and short PTA position [5] Supply - There were short - term shutdowns and restarts of some plants. The coal - based plant operating rate increased to 80% despite a decline in profits [5] Demand - The demand outlook is not optimistic, with the improvement of the operating rate waiting for the improvement of terminal manufacturing orders. Market attention is on the final decision of China - US tariffs on August 12 and the impact of the social security new policy on terminal production costs [5] Valuation - Considering the background, the far - end contract has some upward potential. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [5] Strategy - For single - side trading, conduct range trading and short on rallies; for inter - period trading, conduct range trading for the 9 - 1 month - spread between - 50 and 0, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse spreads; for inter - variety trading, hold long L and short MEG, long MEG and short PTA [5] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: 300 million tons of Yulong Petrochemical are planned to be put into production at the end of the year [7] - PTA: 600 million tons are planned to be put into production throughout the year, with projects from Honggang Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, etc. [7] - MEG: 100 million tons are planned to be put into production, including projects from Sichuan Zhengda Kai, Yulong Petrochemical, etc. [7] - Polyester: 305 million tons are planned to be put into production, with many projects from different companies [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and inventory - building demand from alumina, especially the expected 3.6 million - ton alumina capacity to be put into production in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The export support is still strong, and the downstream peak - season restocking is likely to drive the spot price upwards. Although the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC may limit the overall industry profit expansion, the overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude [5] - **PVC**: In 2025, the high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit the export to India, and the market will continue to short PVC profits. The overall trend is bearish [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - **Caustic Soda**: The supply side shows that the average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The demand side is strong, with alumina having high production willingness and strong demand for caustic soda. The export support is also strong. The overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude, with specific strategies including holding long positions in contracts 10 and 11, conducting positive spreads in 10 - 1 and 11 - 1, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [5] - **PVC**: The high - production situation is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit exports. The overall trend is bearish, with strategies including shorting on rallies, not participating in inter - period spreads, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,562 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 changes little, and the 10 - 1 month spread is strong. The export market still has support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the continuous expansion of the flake caustic - liquid caustic spread. The 50% - 32% caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][22] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory, with a strong structure. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 18.61%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. The actual capacity expansion of caustic soda in 2025 will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side of caustic soda changes greatly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine leads to a good overall profit situation [39][40][42] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina shows an increase in production, inventory, and stable profits. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production can drive a new round of demand expansion. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The finished paper industry has a low year - on - year start - up rate. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries all have stable starts [79][86][96] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis fluctuates strongly, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates weakly [109] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate increases month - on - month, with great supply pressure. There will be seasonal maintenance in the northwest from August to September 2025, and there is still a lot of new capacity to be put into production. The northwest integrated device has a good profit, and the profit of caustic soda should be particularly concerned in 2025. PVC production enterprises are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the start - up rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are generally weak year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to weaken, and a large amount of risk - free arbitrage may lead to a large increase in warehouse receipts in the later stage [113][115][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend of polyolefins is still under pressure, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. For polypropylene, the trend is weak, with potential supply increases and cost uncertainties. For polyethylene, it is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [1][6][7][10]. - The core driver is the negative feedback in the market driven by the collapse of the cost side. Although the trend is weak, short - selling at low levels should be done with caution in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary 3.1.1 Polypropylene - This week, China's polypropylene production was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase from last week and a 19.21% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the average capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 77.8% [6]. - The demand for polypropylene products is expected to rise with the approaching peak season. However, the current cost side is weak, the demand side lacks highlights, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market is expected to be volatile and weak, with the upper pressure at 7200 - 7300 and the lower support at 6800 - 6900. The recommended strategies are to buy 09 and sell 01 in the inter - period, and no cross - variety strategy is recommended for now [6][7][8]. 3.1.2 Polyethylene - China's polyethylene production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The demand is in the off - season, with weak terminal orders. The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations, with the 09 contract having an upper pressure of 7400 and a lower support of 7100 - 7200. No inter - period or cross - variety strategy is recommended [10]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period was 77.91%, a 0.60% increase. Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 81.53%, a 1.96% increase [24]. - In August, there are still some large - scale maintenance plans, but new production capacity and restarts have led to an increase in production. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 520.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 11.7% [22][26][28]. - The production inventory and trader inventory have decreased. The total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 82.74 tons, a 3.41% decrease from the previous period [30][34]. 3.2.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polypropylene have different performances. The BOPP industry has increased its start - up rate, order days, and has a high - level finished product inventory, but its profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape mother roll industry has a flat start - up rate but an increase in order days. The plastic weaving industry has a flat start - up rate and order days. The non - woven fabric industry has an increased start - up rate and a moderately high finished product inventory. The CPP industry has increased its start - up rate and order days [43][51][53][58][60]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises in China was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The production this week was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase from last week. The expected maintenance loss in August will decrease compared to July. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [10][70][71][72]. - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased. The sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 44.45 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period [74][77]. 3.3.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polyethylene are in the off - season. The agricultural film industry has an increased start - up rate but a decrease in order days. The packaging film industry has a decreased start - up rate and order days. The pipe and hollow industries have a lower start - up rate compared to the same period last year [86][87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rainy weather in the production areas continues to affect the release of new rubber, the raw material trend is strong, and the cost support is strong. There is still a bullish sentiment in the market. However, according to Longzhong, downstream enterprises may control production in late August, and the de - stocking speed of spot inventory is expected to slow down, which may suppress the price rebound. Under the game of supply and demand, it is expected that the short - term natural rubber price will maintain a range - bound consolidation [80][81]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry News - Cambodia's rubber production in the first 7 months of 2025 reached 179,198 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. In July, the production was 36,855 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.37% and a year - on - year increase of 8.99%. The latex export volume decreased by 15.4% to 147,071 tons, but the domestic consumption increased by 76% to 64,978 tons [5]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in the first half of 2025 decreased by 0.4% to 163,044 tons. In June, the export volume decreased by 25.3% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the domestic consumption decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [6]. - In July 2025, China's passenger vehicle production and sales were 229.3 million and 228.7 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and 9.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 14.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 124.3 million and 126.2 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [7]. Market Trends - This week, the domestic and foreign markets continued to rise synchronously. On August 15, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15905 yuan/ton, 12815 yuan/ton, 174 cents/kg, and 319.5 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 2.28%, 1.83%, 1.52%, and 0.66% [10][11]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - On August 15, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 1005 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.50% and a year - on - year increase of 36.19%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15.79% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [20]. Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of RU01 - NR01, RU01 - BR01, NR01 - TSR20 01, and RU01 - Tokyo RSS3 01 were 3090 yuan/ton, 4075 yuan/ton, 396.45 yuan/ton, and 292.22 yuan/ton respectively [23][24]. - The spreads of imported rubber to RU decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads of Thai mixed rubber - RU01, Malaysian mixed rubber - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 1255 yuan/ton, - 1305 yuan/ton, - 1005 yuan/ton, and - 3486.45 yuan/ton respectively [27]. - The spread of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased, while the spread of 3L to Thai mixed rubber decreased. On August 15, 2025, the spreads were 250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 47.06% and - 32.43% respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - The price of synthetic rubber increased slightly, with a smaller increase than RU, and the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Chinese mainstream market butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were 11700 yuan/ton and 12200 yuan/ton respectively [35][36]. Fund Flows - On August 15, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 10.36, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 10.79%. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 22.92, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.14% and a year - on - year increase of 256.95%. The settled funds of RU and NR were 58.51 billion yuan and 27.54 billion yuan respectively [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand increased significantly recently. The rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has eased recently [43][44]. - Due to continuous rainfall in the production areas, the release of new rubber was limited, pushing up the raw material purchase price. On August 15, 2025, the prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets were 49.8 baht/kg, 54.2 baht/kg, 63.15 baht/kg, and 59.25 baht/kg respectively [46][47]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories decreased. On August 15, 2025, they were 4.40 baht/kg and 600 yuan/ton respectively [55][56]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and smoked sheets and Hainan concentrated latex decreased, while the production profit of Thai concentrated latex increased. On August 15, 2025, they were - 209 yuan/ton, 2543 yuan/ton, 814.13 yuan/ton, and 670.13 yuan/ton respectively [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the import of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [62][63]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.24 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.26 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.26 percentage points. Tire inventory increased slightly compared with last week [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of full - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the sales volume of passenger vehicles weakened seasonally month - on - month but remained at a high level year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased significantly, with both dark and light rubber decreasing. Qingdao Port had a significant decrease in inventory, while Yunnan and Vietnamese rubber had a slight increase in inventory [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Under the fundamental logic, it fluctuates in a narrow range, and the long - term logic is under pressure. However, there are frequent events in Indonesia, so be vigilant against the risk of news - driven stimulation [4]. - Stainless steel: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated, and the steel price fluctuates [5]. - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [34]. - Polysilicon: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips [35]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply is weak while demand is strong, and the price is strengthening [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The marginal operation of the fundamentals is relatively stable. The global refined nickel's visible inventory shows a gentle increase, dragging down the upper limit of nickel prices. The long - term low - cost supply increment may change the cost curve pattern. In the short - term and the second half of the year, the nickel price valuation may be at the window boundary of the ferronickel conversion path. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upper limit of the nickel price, but the amplitude is limited. The overall decline of the ore price is relatively mild, and the support has weakened slightly, but it is still difficult for the price to fall sharply. The hype of nickel ore contradictions may decrease, limiting the elasticity of nickel prices [4]. - **Market News Impact**: Indonesia may crack down on illegal mining, change the RKAB approval cycle, and re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula. These events increase the risk of short - selling at low levels and add uncertainty to the nickel price [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,963 tons to 41,286 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons [6][7]. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The pressure at the real - end still needs to be continuously alleviated. The long - side logic focuses on the decline of inventory at a high level, the reduction of factory inventory pressure in July, and the potential reduction in supply due to policy tightening. The short - side logic comes from the actual supply - demand situation, where the alleviation of pressure needs to be continuous, and the supply elasticity may limit the upside [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Social inventory has declined slightly for five consecutive weeks, and the factory inventory pressure in July has decreased. The stainless steel production in August is 3.25 million tons, with a marginal increase. The production in Indonesia in August is 420,000 tons [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week, and the spot price increased. The futures price first rose, then fell, and then rose again, influenced by other varieties and macro - sentiment. The spot prices in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. Factories in the southwest and northwest regions had some resumptions, but the rhythm was slow. On the demand side, the short - term demand of downstream industries increased marginally, with the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supporting consumption [31][32]. - **Market Outlook**: Pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large - scale resumption, the futures price may follow the coking coal futures, but the long - term fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high levels and take profits at low levels [34]. Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated widely this week, showing a relatively strong trend overall. The spot market had some transactions, but the price did not show obvious improvement [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The short - term weekly production remained at a high level, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand from the silicon wafer side improved, and the production in August increased slightly compared with July [32][33]. - **Market Outlook**: There will be more event disturbances next week. The main idea is to go long on dips. The spot market's signing is approaching the end, and the terminal demand may decrease in September. It is recommended to take profit on the PS2511 - PS2512 inter - period positive spread and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures price increased significantly, and the spot price also rose. The SMM basis and the spread between contracts changed accordingly [54]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, production in Jiangxi and Qinghai was affected, and there were concerns about future production. On the demand side, the downstream production demand in August improved significantly. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of futures warrants increased [55]. - **Market Outlook**: Due to supply disturbances, the lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month. If the downstream demand in September strengthens, the price will continue to be strong. The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [56][57].