2025 年 8 月 5 日 LPG：进口成本下行 丙烯：供需格局宽松，短期弱势震荡 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 3,896 | -1.74% | 3,868 | -0.72% | | 期货价格 | PG2510 | 4,309 | -2.16% | 4,281 | -0.65% | | | PL2601 | 6,481 | 0.11% | 6,472 | -0.14% | | | PL2602 | 6,537 昨日成交 | -0.37% 较前日变动 | 6,532 昨日持仓 | -0.08% 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 92,565 | 25516 | 96,122 | 6161 | | 持仓&成交 | PG2510 | 31,664 | 12155 | 70,882 | 5252 | | | PL2601 | 2,137 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Different commodities show different trends such as upward, downward, and oscillatory movements, influenced by factors like macro - economic news, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [3][6]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payroll data is weak, with positive price trends. For example, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.42 with a daily increase of 1.39%, and the night - session closing price was 784.50 with a 0.52% increase [7][8]. - **Silver**: Shows a slight rebound [7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price. However, Trump's tariff policy on semi - finished copper products may impact the market. The trend strength is neutral [12][14]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an oscillatory band. Trump's plan to fill Fed理事 vacancies may affect the market, with a neutral trend strength [15]. - **Lead**: Continuous reduction in inventory limits price decline, with a neutral trend strength [18]. - **Tin**: Moves within an oscillatory range, with a slightly bearish trend strength [20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within an oscillatory band; Alumina shows a weakening oscillatory trend; Casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, all with neutral trend strengths [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Intensified multi - short competition leads to narrow - range oscillations; Stainless steel returns to fundamentals after the macro - factor fades, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, both with neutral trend strengths [27][28][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price oscillates, with a neutral trend strength [33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In a weak pattern, with a bearish trend strength [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term sentiment cools down, and it's necessary to pay attention to news stimuli, with a neutral trend strength [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [43][44][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment cools down, and prices oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [48][50]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Oscillate in a wide range, both with neutral trend strengths [51][54]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a neutral trend strength [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Unilaterally oscillates weakly and gives downward concessions; PTA shows a weakening trend, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differences; MEG oscillates unilaterally [61]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: With repeated macro - sentiment, it's advisable to mainly build long positions at low levels [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed slightly higher, and domestic soybean meal oscillates strongly [64]. - **Soybean**: Rebounds and oscillates [64]. - **Corn**: Runs weakly [66]. - **Sugar**: Narrowly consolidates [67]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [68]. - **Egg**: The bullish expectation for the spot price is dashed, and market sentiment collapses [70]. - **Live Pig**: Maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The four major stock index futures contracts all rose on August 4, 2025. The overall trend of stock index futures is in a volatile pattern, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing up [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of the underlying indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on August 4, with increases of 0.39%, 0.55%, 0.78%, and 1.04% respectively. The corresponding futures contracts also rose, with IF rising 0.52%, IH rising 0.54%, IC rising 0.92%, and IM rising 1.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 22,338 lots, 12,314 lots, 11,855 lots, and 23,743 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased by 7,234 lots, 4,835 lots, 3,294 lots, and 1,172 lots respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies, with some being positive and some negative, reflecting different market expectations [1] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - For most futures contracts, both long and short positions of the top 20 members showed certain changes. For example, in the IF2508 contract, the long - position increase was - 3303, and the net long - position change was - 6233; the short - position increase was - 2978, and the net short - position change was - 5185 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] - **Important Drivers**: The EU will suspend two trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. The A - share market showed an upward trend on August 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.46%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.5%. The market volume decreased slightly compared to the previous day [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound [1] - Alumina: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, premiums, processing fees, and inventory levels, among other aspects. It presents the changes in these data compared to previous trading days, weeks, months, and quarters [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,525, down 90 from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,570, down 2. Trading volumes and open interests showed various changes compared to different time - points in the past [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,225, down 3 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests also had significant changes over different time intervals [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19,865, down 95 from the previous trading day. Trading volumes and open interests decreased compared to previous periods [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 547,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 46,600 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,274, with no change from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 31,346, a decrease of 2,809 from the previous trading day [1]. 3.3 Cost and Profit - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,751.59, down 38.75 from the previous trading day. The import profit and loss of aluminum showed different changes in spot and 3M contracts [1]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 249, with a certain change compared to the previous trading day [1]. 3.4 Premiums and Processing Fees - **Premiums**: The Shanghai Bonded Area Premium was 108, with no change from the previous trading day; the EU Rotterdam aluminum ingot Premium (MB) was 200.0, with no change [1]. - **Processing Fees**: The Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 290, an increase of 10 from the previous trading day; the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 150, with no change [1]. 3.5 Other Information - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures showed a relatively strong and volatile trend; the soybean No.1 futures showed a rebound and oscillation trend [1]. - On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering, but the abundant global supply, including the Brazilian soybean harvest and strong US soybean production prospects, continued to suppress the upward momentum of soybean prices. Concerns about Sino - US trade tensions also limited market sentiment. The US soybean crop was still in good condition in early August, and the short - term weather in the US Midwest was expected to be mild and dry, with more mild and rainy weather possible in the next 6 - 15 days. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, down 1 percentage point from a week ago, in line with market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Futures Prices - DCE soybean No.1 2509 closed at 4117 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4133 yuan/ton during the night session, up 7 yuan (+0.17%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3024 yuan/ton during the day session, up 20 yuan (+0.67%), and 3045 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.79%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 994.5 cents per bushel, up 6.5 cents (+0.66%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 285.1 dollars per short - ton, up 4.7 dollars (+1.68%) [1]. 2. Spot Prices - In Shandong, the soybean meal price was 2940 - 2960 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the futures contract M2509 and M2601, and price changes were mostly flat or up by 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the price was 2920 - 2980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan compared to the previous day, with different basis levels for different contract months [1]. - In South China, the price was 2940 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day, and also had different basis adjustments for different contract months [1]. 3. Industrial Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.7 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 15.5 million tons two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory data for the previous week was not available, and the inventory two weeks ago was 96.1 million tons [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal was +1, and that of soybean No.1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day session of the reporting day [3].

Report Overview - Market status: PX price declined on August 4, following the drop in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts; MEG port inventory in East China decreased slightly; polyester sales were generally weak [5][8][9] - Investment ratings: PX - unilateral oscillating weakly and downward concessions; PTA - trending weakly, focus on positive spreads for monthly spreads; MEG - unilateral oscillating market [2] - Core view: For PX, conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies, with a weakening unilateral trend; for PTA, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a weakening unilateral trend; for MEG, conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels, with a downward - driving unilateral trend [9][10][11] Market Data Futures Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6754 | 4698 | 4389 | 6410 | 514.3 | | Change | 6812 | - 46 | - 16 | - 34 | - 13.6 | | Change rate | - 0.85% | - 0.97% | - 0.36% | - 0.53% | - 2.58% | | Monthly spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's closing price | 26 | - 34 | - 28 | - 60 | 5.5 | | Previous day's closing price | 22 | - 38 | - 34 | - 64 | 4.6 | | Change | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.9 | [4] Spot Data | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 838.33 | 4700 | 4455 | 584.62 | 70.84 | | Previous day's price | 845.67 | 4740 | 4480 | 603.88 | 71.39 | | Change | - 7.34 | - 40 | - 25 | - 19.25 | - 0.55 | [4] Spot Processing Fee Data | Spot processing fee | PX - Naphtha spread | PTA processing fee | Staple fiber processing fee | Bottle chip processing fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's price | 254.33 | 106.78 | 137.95 | - 0.61 | - 6.01 | | Previous day's price | 247.33 | 192.91 | 116.12 | - 27.37 | - 6.01 | | Change | 7 | - 86.13 | 21.83 | 26.76 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis PX - Price movement: On August 4, Asian PX prices continued to fall, following the decline in crude oil prices after OPEC+ decided to accelerate the removal of production cuts. The PX - naphtha spread widened daily supported by weak naphtha prices [5][7] - Supply and demand: In August, there is no new PX maintenance, but some plants have restart plans, and the operating rate of existing plants will increase. However, the PTA device operating rate is expected to continue to decline in August, and the PX supply - demand balance will become looser [9] - Trading strategy: Conduct monthly spread reverse arbitrage and short PXN on rallies. The unilateral trend is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the short term [9] PTA - Supply and demand: Polyester factory operating rates are low, and their willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. The terminal weaving sector's concentrated procurement has overdrawn subsequent restocking momentum, and the polyester sector has entered a inventory - building pattern. In August, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain in the 88 - 89% range [10] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is weak, and pay attention to positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels [10][11] MEG - Supply and demand: The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise to over 70%. In August, Zhejiang Petrochemical 80 is expected to restart, while the restart time of Satellite Petrochemical has been postponed to the end of September. Polyester device operating rates are low, and the willingness to hold MEG has decreased [11] - Trading strategy: Conduct positive spreads on monthly spreads at low levels. The unilateral trend is downward - driven, and pay attention to the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions during the main contract roll - over [11] Polyester - Sales: On August 4, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 40% in the afternoon of the 4th and about 20 - 30% on the weekend [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India due to India's purchase of Russian oil, which may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among India, Pakistan, Russia, and China [7][8]. - For the egg sector, in July, the laying - hen inventory continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising. Although the market has been trading on the logic of price increase in the peak season since July, the spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. With the arrival of the peak season in August, the spot price declined instead of rising over the weekend, and the near - month contracts dropped significantly after entering the delivery month, pulling down the pricing of far - month contracts. Given the high inventory of laying hens and eggs, the spot price remains under pressure. However, the peak - season contracts on the futures market have reached the lowest price since listing. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of old - hen culling, and short positions should be held with caution [10]. - Regarding the stock index futures, there is a higher probability of the market rising after a period of oscillation. Recently, the index has shown a certain degree of correction. Historically, the turning points of bull markets in similar macro - environments were mainly due to two factors: policy shifting from stable growth to structural adjustment and intensified external disturbances. Currently, the Politburo meeting has reduced the intensity of stable - growth policies, and it is necessary to continuously monitor whether there will be continuous efforts in structural adjustment. Although the future direction between China and the US is somewhat uncertain as the 90 - day suspension period is approaching, the probability of a significant shift to a hawkish stance is not high. If the internal and external factors do not change fundamentally, considering the current loose liquidity and positive market expectations, the market is likely to continue to rise after the recent consolidation. If all factors turn negative, the market may continue to adjust in this area for a longer time [11]. - In the crude oil market, the short - term price is dominated by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is gradually strengthening. Last Friday, the US non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, causing crude oil to decline in resonance with other major assets, and the gold - oil ratio strengthened significantly. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the market's pricing of the US and European recessions on oil prices. Looking at the micro - supply - demand situation in the crude oil market, positive factors are gradually accumulating. For example, due to the approaching US sanctions, Russia's Urals crude oil exports may shrink as India's purchases decline; Iran's actual external supply is still decreasing; the export increase of OPEC + is still significantly lower than its production increase, and the apparent production increase in July was also lower than expected; there is a risk of a decline in US shale oil production. Overall, after the recent macro - pessimistic sentiment fades, there is still a chance for the oil price to reach $80 per barrel (about 580 - 600 yuan per barrel in the domestic market) in the third quarter. In terms of strategy, priority should be given to the positive spread trading opportunities of the domestic SC crude oil futures, and previous long positions can be held as appropriate [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trump's Tariff Threats - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India because India buys a large amount of Russian oil and resells most of it on the open market for profit. Previously, he also threatened to impose additional punitive tariffs on India. The situation may lead to significant changes in US - India relations and have an impact on the complex relations among multiple countries [7][8]. 3.2 Sector - Specific Analysis 3.2.1 Egg Sector - In July, the inventory of laying hens continued to increase, and the supply of small - sized eggs kept rising, indicating a loose supply of laying hens. The market's expectation of price increase in the peak season has not been fulfilled, and the spot price declined in August. With high inventory, the spot price is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the culling of old hens [10]. 3.2.2 Stock Index Futures - There is a high probability of the market rising after oscillation. The current macro - environment and policy trends need to be continuously monitored. If the internal and external factors remain stable, the market is likely to rise; otherwise, it may continue to adjust [11]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Sector - Short - term price is affected by macro - pessimistic sentiment, while the supply - demand situation is improving. Positive factors in the supply - demand side are accumulating, and there is a chance for the oil price to rise in the third quarter. Priority should be given to positive spread trading opportunities [13]. 3.2.4 Other Commodity Sectors - A series of commodity sectors, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, are analyzed in the report, with specific trends and trading suggestions provided for each sector. For example, gold shows a trend affected by the weak non - farm payrolls data, copper is supported by strong spot prices, and zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [15][18][20].

2025 年 8 月 5 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 鸡蛋：现货看涨预期落空，情绪崩盘 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,360 | -4.03 | 162,298 | 5,939 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,620 | 0.11 | 8,777 | 1,320 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋9-10价差 | | 117 | 189 | | | | 鸡蛋9-1价差 | | -260 | -135 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.90 | 3.00 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.84 | 3.00 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.90 | 3.10 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.33 | 3. ...

2025年08月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农数据走弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅反弹 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存连续减少，限制价格回落 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：震荡偏弱 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观淡化回归基本面，钢价低位震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 5 日 黄金：非农数据走弱 白银：小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].