2025 年 10 月 09 日 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3927 | -4（-0.10%） | na na | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2928 | -9 （-0.31%） | na na | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1029.75 | +8.75（+0.86%） | 注：连盘指9月30日收盘， 夜盘休市； | 美盘 | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 278.1 | +1.4（+0.51%） | 收盘指10月8日收盘价。 | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） （节前9月30日报价） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2940～2980； M2601+40/+50/+80， | 10月基差M2601+0/+50， 持平； 持平； 12-1月M2601+50， 持平； 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 11-1月 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating a strong bearish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. 2) Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig market, highlighting that the spot price decline increased during the holiday, and it is a basis - closing market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0; the Guangdong spot price is 12,660 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 are 12,355 yuan/ton, 12,825 yuan/ton, and 12,480 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60, 40, and 30 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 is 44,100 hands, 31,876 hands, and 9,786 hands respectively, with decreases of 14,620 hands, 5,178 hands, and 4,541 hands compared to the previous day. The open interest of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 is 61,105 hands, 76,877 hands, and 52,713 hands respectively, with changes of - 14,348 hands, + 456 hands, and + 108 hands compared to the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of pig2511 is 125 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 10 [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a weak outlook for both [3]. Group 2: Core Views - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a state of weak oscillation due to the game between fundamentals and macro - sentiment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5494, down 116 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 192,219 and an open interest of 118,081. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5468, down 108, with a trading volume of 76,428 and an open interest of 116,050. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5742, down 60, with a trading volume of 79,328 and an open interest of 35,681. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5758, down 62, with a trading volume of 176,364 and an open interest of 348,291 [1]. Spot - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [1]. Spreads - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 244 yuan/ton, up 66. The basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 78 yuan/ton, up 60. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 26 yuan/ton, down 8. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 was - 16 yuan/ton, up 2. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 was 290 yuan/ton, up 46 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 30, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In September, the number of operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia was 13, with 43 operating submerged arc furnaces. The开工 rate was 48.86%, up 2.27% from August, and the output was expected to be 12.16 tons, down 0.3 tons from August, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.28%. Nationally, there were 76 operating ferrosilicon enterprises with 245 operating submerged arc furnaces in September. The total average开工 rate was 50.88%, down 1.86% from August, and the output was expected to be 47.88 tons, down 0.05 tons from August, up 1.27 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.72%. The cumulative output from January to September 2025 was 410.7 tons, up 2.26 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 0.55% [1][3]. - In September, the output of silicomanganese in the northern main production areas decreased slightly. The total output of silicomanganese in Ningxia was about 20.7 tons, down 0.75 tons from August, and the output of 6517 was about 19.8 tons [3].

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：节中外盘弱势运行 | 23 | | 丙烯：节中现货止跌反弹 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 | 28 | | 短纤：趋势偏弱 | 31 | | ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 螺纹钢：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 | | --- | 热轧卷板：关注电炉减产节奏，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2601 HC2601 | 3,072 3,253 | -35 -51 | -1.13 -1.54 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2601 | 959,828 | 1,873,832 | -52,807 | | | HC2601 | 511,111 | 1,349,868 | -34,602 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铝：保持看多方向 氧化铝：存在分歧 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20680 | -50 | -5 | 50 | 220 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20765 | l | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2687 | 17 | 41 | ୧୧ | 142 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 123088 | -9837 | -210 | -11486 | 21390 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 190531 | -13327 | -34917 | -46756 | -8413 | | 电解铝 LME铝3M成交量 | 14458 | -2695 | 7 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,110.6 | -1.02% | | 14,129 | 24,782 | -4,532 | 0.57 | | 0.57 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,731.9 | -0.18% | | 15,454 | 20,771 | 88 | 0.74 | | 0.57 | | | EC2602 | 1,642.8 | -0.12% | | 4,079 | 8,534 | -318 | 0.48 | | 0.45 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [1]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between short - term supply - demand and cost, and steel prices will fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,900, down 200 from T - 1; the trading volume was 127,190, up 29,433 from T - 1 [1]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,730, down 30 from T - 1; the trading volume was 224,083, down 51,373 from T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel was 121,650, up 450 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 954, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,100, unchanged from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 28,260, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Policy**: - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and control coal and ore supply [1]. - The Indonesian government requires mining companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4]. - The Indonesian government will punish illegal mining, with reports of 1063 illegal mines [4]. - **Production Changes**: - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1900 metal tons of nickel - iron production per month [2][4]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending long - term supply agreements for hot - rolled coil [4]. - The Indonesian forestry working group took over a 148 - hectare nickel mine of PT WedaBav Nickel, affecting about 600 metal tons of nickel ore production per month [5]. - The Indonesian government sanctioned 190 mining companies for not providing claim and refund guarantees [6]. - **Other News**: - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [7].

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 9 日 期指：节后首日或偏强震荡为主 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4640.69 | ↑0.45 | | 6646.2 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4634.4 | ↑0.18 | -6.29 | 445.3 | 32027 | ↓15624 | 52458 | ↓9496 | | IF2511 | 4623 | ↑0.19 | -17.69 | 68.4 | 4927 | ↓304 | 6116 | ↑456 | | IF2512 | 4618 | ↑0.20 | -22.69 | 877 | 63292 | ↓34009 | 153795 | ↓11459 | | IF2603 | 4595.2 | ↑0.24 | -45.49 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Implement a reverse spread strategy for the 1-5 month spread [1] Core Views - After the holiday, PX is expected to make up for the decline and operate weakly; PTA is expected to make a small compensatory decline; MEG is expected to make up for the decline at the opening [16][17] - During the holiday, PX valuation fluctuated with the cost-side crude oil price, rebounding after a decline; PTA's FOB China price slightly decreased; MEG's CFR China price dropped [16][17] - After the holiday, attention should be paid to the planned shutdown and maintenance of Hengli Dalian No. 1 device; the polyester factory's inventory is expected to accumulate to a high level, and attention should be paid to whether winter order demand can drive inventory digestion [16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures main contracts were 6570, 4594, 4207, 6276, and 479.7 respectively, with changes of -100, -58, -17, -60, and -12.9, and changes of -1.50%, -1.25%, -0.40%, -0.95%, and -2.62% [2] - **Spot Data**: On the previous trading day, the spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 803.83 US dollars/ton, 4545 yuan/ton, 4275 yuan/ton, 585.25 US dollars/ton, and 67.09 US dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Processing Fee Data**: On the previous trading day, the PX-naphtha price difference, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price difference were 208.75, 210.35, 255.45, 115.28, and -6.01 respectively [2] Market Dynamics - Japan's Idemitsu Kosan shut down two 200,000-ton/year PX production lines at its Chita plant for planned maintenance from mid-September to mid-December, while its other production lines in Japan are operating normally [2][3] - On October 7, Asian PX prices rose further, with Platts' assessments of Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea markers up 2.50 US dollars/ton day over day [5] - On October 7, Asian afternoon crude oil futures were little changed after two consecutive sessions of higher settlements, and reports of a drone strike on Russia's Kirishi oil refinery supported prices; meanwhile, US crude oil stocks likely rose by 2.84 million barrels to about 419.4 million barrels in the week ended October 3 [6][7][8] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: -1 [15]