Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Alumina: Bearish [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Views - The aluminum market is expected to remain strong, while the alumina market will continue to decline. The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1]. 3. Market Data Summary 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375 yuan, down 275 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 825,553 lots, and the open interest was 370,981 lots [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,780 yuan, down 86 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 964,869 lots, and the open interest was 553,364 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23,165 yuan, down 175 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 27,925 lots, and the open interest was 22,099 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 740,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 100,800 tons, up 3,300 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,688 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 334 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,500 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. 4. Other Information - The New York Fed President Williams warned against undermining the independence of the central bank and said that the current monetary policy stance is stable, with no need to adjust interest rates in the short term. He expects GDP growth of 2.5%-2.75% in 2026 and inflation to fall back to the 2% target in 2027 [2]. - The CME will change the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts from a fixed amount to a certain percentage of the contract's nominal value. The margin ratio for some non-high-risk gold contracts will be adjusted to about 5% of the nominal value, and about 9% for silver [2]. - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 1, 0, and 1 respectively [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report presents investment analyses and outlooks for various energy - chemical futures on January 14, 2026. It includes evaluations of price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment strategies for different commodities such as PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - supported, expected to be unilaterally strong. Suggest long PX short PTA, long SC short PX hedging. Although supply is loose and downstream PTA polyester may reduce production, the rising oil price supports the cost. [6][9] - **PTA**: Cost - supported, suggest long SC short PTA. High processing fees, pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. Supply growth is limited, and the impact of polyester production reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **MEG**: Expected to rebound strongly in the short - term, suggest closing short positions. Focus on the implementation of the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants. [10] Rubber - Expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the base - difference and some price spreads changed. The demand of the semi - steel tire industry improved slightly. [11][12][13] Synthetic Rubber - Expected to fluctuate at a high level. The price of butadiene is in a neutral situation, and synthetic rubber mainly fluctuates with the cost. [15][16][17] LLDPE - The production of standard products remains low, and the spot price is rising. The base - difference turns positive. The raw - material price is stable, and the supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention. [18][19] PP - The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost of PP is strongly supported. The end - of - year demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH devices. [21][22] Caustic Soda - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand and large supply pressure, facing the impact of low - price warehouse receipts. [24][25][26] Pulp - Expected to fluctuate. The spot price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the market, and the hardwood pulp price is firm. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. [29][31][32] Glass - The price of the original glass sheet is stable. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the trading atmosphere is average. [34][35] Methanol - Expected to have support during fluctuations. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply expectations, it is expected to be strong in the short - term. The upper and lower valuation levels are clear. [38][40][41] Urea - Expected to fluctuate. The inventory is basically stable. In the short - term, the price may correct, and in the medium - term, it is still strong. [42][44][45] Styrene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. The medium - term driving force is weak. [47][48][49] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand is not good. [51][53] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply is tight in the short - term, and geopolitical disturbances are strong. [56] - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong. [57] PVC - Expected to fluctuate weakly. High production and inventory, weak demand, and the large - scale production - reduction expectation may be after the 03 contract. [65][66] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, there is still support at the bottom. [68] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly follows the rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rebound. [68] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Expected to operate weakly. The "rush for exports" is temporarily false, and the price - reduction inflection point is clear. Different contracts have different investment strategies. [70][80][84] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding long TA short PF. [86] - **Bottle - Chip**: Expected to fluctuate strongly, suggest holding the positive spread of the monthly difference. [86] Offset - Printing Paper - Suggest short - selling at high prices. The market price is stable, and the downstream demand is limited. [89][90][92] Pure Benzene - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The port inventory has increased, and the spot price has risen slightly. [94][95][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: A significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price [2][7]. - Zinc: Volatility at high levels has increased [2][10]. - Lead: A decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Broke through the historical high [2][17]. - Aluminum: Operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: Trading within a range [2][25]. - Palladium: Trading in a narrow range [2][25]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range fluctuations [2][29]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel has raised the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a 0.14% increase. Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4594.40 with a - 0.31% decrease [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 197,421, a decrease of 40,906 from the previous day, and the position was 103,633, a decrease of 12,817 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 98,283 kg, an increase of 630 kg from the previous day [4]. - **News**: US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, but the unemployment rate decreased. The University of Michigan's January consumer confidence index reached a four - month high. Trump threatened Iran and was reported to have ordered a plan to "invade" Greenland [4][6]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a 0.39% increase, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a 4.14% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 136,532, a decrease of 29,618 from the previous day, and the position was 72,853, a decrease of 7,320 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 630,066 kg, a decrease of 19577 kg from the previous day [4]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290 with a - 1.45% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 103540 with a 1.22% increase. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,157 with a - 0.12% decrease [7]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the position was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 [7]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day. The LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% [7]. - **News**: US December core CPI was only 2.6% year - on - year, at a four - year low. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [7][9]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24280 with a 0.43% increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3213.5 with a 2.05% increase [10]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 188273, an increase of 90333 from the previous day, and the position was 111306, an increase of 9828 [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 33613 tons, a decrease of 1728 tons from the previous day, and the LME Zinc inventory was 106900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [10]. - **News**: US core inflation slowed down in December, and the market has low expectations for a rate cut this month [10][11]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17360 with a - 0.66% decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2053 with a 0.32% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 41289, an increase of 5747 from the previous day, and the position was 64233, an increase of 698 [14]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 21013 tons, an increase of 4524 tons from the previous day, and the LME Lead inventory was 218925 tons, a decrease of 2525 tons [14]. - **News**: US December core CPI was at a four - year low, and Trump cancelled talks with Iranian officials [14][15]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 379,330 with a 0.64% increase, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 49,145 with a 1.96% increase [18]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 470,223, an increase of 187,240 from the previous day, and the position was 42,853, a decrease of 7,782 [18]. - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrants**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,245, a decrease of 88 from the previous day, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, an increase of 25. The cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [18]. - **News**: Global central banks are drafting a statement to support Fed Chairman Powell. Baichuan Intelligence plans to launch an IPO in 2027 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24375, a decrease of 275 from the previous day, and the LME Aluminum 3M closed at 299 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 825553, an increase of 170542 from the previous day, and the position was 370981, a decrease of 8100 [21]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 14.90 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.40 million tons [21]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2780, a decrease of 144 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 964869, an increase of 97851 from the previous day, and the position was 553364, an increase of 123459 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Price**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23165, a decrease of 175 from the previous day [21]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 27925, an increase of 10659 from the previous day, and the position was 22099, an increase of 109 [21]. - **News**: After Powell was sued, the New York Fed President warned against undermining the central bank's independence. CME changed the margin setting method for precious metals contracts [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of the platinum futures 2606 was 605.05 with a - 2.85% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum was 32,647 kg, a decrease of 7,907 from the previous day, and the position was 38.440 kg, a decrease of 861 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345 ounces, a decrease of 409 from the previous day [25]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of the palladium futures 2606 was 483.25 with a - 4.33% decrease [25]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium was 22,262 kg, a decrease of 1,916 from the previous day, and the position was 15.204 kg, a decrease of 59 [25]. - **Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908 ounces, a decrease of 398 from the previous day [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 138,450, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,277,690, an increase of 194,488 from the previous day [30]. - **Industry Chain**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 981, an increase of 9 from the previous day [30]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,790, a decrease of 65 from the previous day [30]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 347,554, a decrease of 9,430 from the previous day [30]. - **News**: The Indonesian government has restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities [30][31].

2026 年 1 月 14 日 锡：突破历史新高 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 tangwenhao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 379,330 | 0.64% | 400,300 | 4.63% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 49,145 | 1.96% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 470,223 | 187,240 | 42,853 | -7,782 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 1,550 | 436 | 23,240 | 2 6 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪 锡 | 6,245 | -88 | - | ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.56%, IH down 0.21%, IC down 1.26%, and IM down 1.92%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded on this trading day, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors, while the total open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, and that of IM decreased. The Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day winning streak, the ChiNext Index fell nearly 2%, and the Hong Kong stock market oscillated upwards with pharmaceutical stocks leading the gains [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data Tracking - **Index Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: On January 13th, the closing price of the CSI 300 was 4761, down 0.60%; the closing price of the SSE 50 was 3132.9, down 0.34%; the closing price of the CSI 500 was 8143.3, down 1.28%; the closing price of the CSI 1000 was 8203.1, down 1.84%. Among the corresponding index futures contracts, the prices of all current - month contracts declined, with the decline of IM being the largest [1] - **Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 16,637 lots, IH by 13,333 lots, IC by 8960 lots, and IM by 6539 lots. The total open interest of IF increased by 5440 lots, IH by 3136 lots, IC by 6136 lots, and IM decreased by 1419 lots [2] - **Index Futures Basis**: The basis of different contracts varies, such as IF2601 with a basis of 5.17, IH2601 with 3.67, IC2601 with 29.52, and IM2601 with 30.67 [1] 3.2 Index Futures Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes - Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different changes in long and short positions. For example, in IF2601, long positions decreased by 3789 and short positions decreased by 3971; in IH2603, long positions increased by 1875 and short positions increased by 1134 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [6] 3.4 Important Drivers - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Industrial Internet Platforms (2026 - 2028)", aiming to achieve positive results in the high - quality development of industrial internet platforms by 2028. The ministry also held the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing industry self - discipline and a win - win situation [6][7] 3.5 A - share Market Closing Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64% to close at 4138.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.96%, and the A - share market turnover reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. Innovative drug concept stocks strengthened, while commercial aerospace concept stocks adjusted significantly [7] 3.6 Hong Kong Stock Market Closing Summary - The Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to close at 26,848.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.11% to 5869.79 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.71% to 9285.41 points. The market turnover was HK$315.192 billion, an increase from the previous trading day [8]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 14 日 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,027.18 | 0.09% | 1031.00 | 0.14% | | | 黄金T+D | 1,025.52 | 0.33% | 1025.50 | -0.03% | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4594.40 | -0.31% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 21030 | 0.39% | 21943.00 | 4.14% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 21048 | 0.78% | 21931 | 4.14% | | | Comex白银2602 | 86.860 | 2.00% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2602 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market shows high-level volatility, with the zinc trend strength at 1 [4]. - The U.S. core inflation slowed more than expected in December, with the core CPI growth rate lower than expected, and the CPI year-on-year increase in line with expectations, which strongly confirms the continuous slowdown of inflation [2]. - The CPI report provides more conclusive signals that price pressures are cooling, but it is still not enough to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates this month [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 24,280 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,213.5 dollars/ton, up 2.05% [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 188,273 lots, an increase of 90,333 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 11,180 lots, a decrease of 52 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 111,306 lots, an increase of 9,828 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 233,254 lots, a decrease of 397 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -40.9 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.09 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 33,613 tons, a decrease of 1,728 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, an increase of 100 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The U.S. core inflation in December was lower than expected, with the core CPI year-on-year increase of 2.6% at the lowest level in nearly five years, and the CPI year-on-year increase of 2.7% in line with expectations, which strongly confirms the continuous slowdown of inflation [2]. - The CPI report provides more conclusive signals that price pressures are cooling, but it is still not enough to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates this month. The Fed may need new evidence of a weakening job market or subsiding price pressures to resume rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend strength is 1, indicating a relatively neutral trend, with the range of trend strength values in the [-2, 2] integer interval [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the lithium carbonate market will experience a moderately strong and fluctuating trend, and investors should pay attention to market sentiment changes [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 162,800 yuan, with a significant difference compared to previous periods; the trading volume was 67 lots, showing a large decline; the open interest was 1,755 lots, also decreasing. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 166,980 yuan, the trading volume was 608,177 lots, and the open interest was 460,281 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 26,898 lots. The basis between the spot and 2601 contract was -3,300 yuan, and between the spot and 2605 contract was -7,480 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,090 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,950 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan [1] - **Downstream Products**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 55,665 yuan, and for ternary materials such as 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), it was 190,950 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Changes**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 160,975 yuan/ton, up 8,512 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 yuan/ton, also up 7,500 yuan/ton [2] - **Chilean Exports**: In December 2025, Chile's total lithium carbonate exports were 18,341 tons, up 2.10% month - on - month but down 8.68% year - on - year. Exports to China were 11,705 tons, down 20.34% month - on - month and 12.41% year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 5,572 tons, up 146.66% month - on - month and 109.87% year - on - year; exports to Japan were 596 tons, up 47.89% month - on - month but down 80.13% year - on - year. Chile's total lithium sulfate exports to China in December 2025 were 4,838 tons, down 52.25% month - on - month and 51.07% year - on - year [2][3] - **Exchange Policy**: Starting from the trading session on January 15, 2026, the trading fee standard for lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2602 - LC2612 will be adjusted to 0.032% of the trading amount, and the same for intraday closing positions. Non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum of 400 lots of daily opening positions for contracts LC2606 - LC2612 [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant increase in LME cancelled warrants supports copper prices [1] - By 2040, global copper demand will significantly increase, driven by the AI and defense sectors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 102,290, with a daily decline of 1.45%, and the night - session closing price was 103,540, with a night - session increase of 1.22%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 13,157, with a daily decline of 0.12% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 668,804, an increase of 105,862 from the previous day, and the open interest was 690,536, a decrease of 4,076 from the previous day. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 32,396, a decrease of 3,345 from the previous day, and the open interest was 324,000, a decrease of 543 from the previous day [1] - **Futures Inventories**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 122,127, an increase of 5,505 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 141,550, an increase of 4,325 from the previous day. The LME cancelled warrant ratio was 36.61%, an increase of 20.53% from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: There were changes in various spreads such as LME copper spreads, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In the US, the core CPI in December was only 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low. The interest rate market still bets that the next interest rate cut will be in June this year. On January 13, US President Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials [1] - **Industry News**: Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 133.2 million tons, slightly higher than in 2024. In November, its copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year to 130,900 tons. Pan Pacific Copper (PPC) proposed a record - high copper premium of $330 per ton for Japanese domestic customers in 2026 [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to trade in a range, while palladium is likely to experience narrow - range fluctuations [1] - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and the trend intensity of palladium is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 605.05 with a - 2.85% decline; gold - exchange platinum was at 599.38 with a - 2.21% decline; New York platinum main - contract (previous day) was 2338.00 with a - 0.99% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) was 2331.20 with a - 0.76% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 483.25 with a - 4.33% decline; RMB spot palladium was at 447.00 with no change; New York palladium main - contract (previous day) was 1887.00 with a - 1.28% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) was 1831.35 with a - 1.06% decline [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 32,647 kg (down 7907 kg from the previous day), and open interest was 38,440 kg (down 861 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 44,452 kg (up 2211 kg), and open interest was 105,349 kg (up 1149 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 22,262 kg (down 1916 kg), and open interest was 15,204 kg (down 59 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 22,245 kg (up 7340 kg), and open interest was 57,759 kg (up 292 kg) [1] - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,278,284 (down 4597), and palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,191,890 (up 10,833) [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,345 (down 409), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,908 (down 398) [1] - **Price Spreads**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 5.67 (up 4.19 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 to 2610 spread was - 0.10 (down 1.20); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 7.44 (down 0.21). The spread between Guangdong platinum main - contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was 14.40 (down 12.89). The spread between RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 36.25 (up 21.85); Guangdong palladium 2606 to 2610 spread was - 3.45 (up 1.75); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 6.00 (down 0.26). The spread between Guangdong palladium main - contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 19 (down 21.58) [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.18 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.97 with a - 0.06% decline; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.97 with a - 0.15% decline; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.90 with a - 0.06% decline [1] Macro and Industry News - US CPI growth remained stable in December, and core CPI was slightly lower than expected. Trump praised the inflation data and called on Powell to cut interest rates significantly. The Fed's mouthpiece said the December CPI was unlikely to change the current wait - and - see attitude [4] - ADP weekly employment report: In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [4] - Trump's interview was broadcast this morning, focusing on Iran, the economy, and Powell [4] - Kim Yo - jong responded to South Korea's North Korea policy, saying that the so - called "improving relations" was a delusion [4] - Takaichi Sanae expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections on the 23rd [4] - Fed's Musalem said there were few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believed that inflation risks would be more persistent than expected [4] - The US relaxed restrictions on NVIDIA's H200 chip exports to China [4]