国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期震荡运行 | 供应 | • | 本周(20250919-0925)中国甲醇产量为1872675吨，较上周增加59510吨，装置产能利用率为82.53%，环比涨3.28%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量201.52万吨左右，产能利用率88.81%左右， | | | | 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃：华东地区烯烃企业整体负荷略有提升，神华新疆以及宁夏宝丰三期装置重启，行业开工率明显上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Recommend selling high and shorting, with the expected trading range next week between 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton [6] - Polysilicon: Recommend waiting and seeing, with the expected trading range next week between 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon sentiment will decline, and the futures price may decline. Although the supply - demand pattern provides short - term support, the continuous decline of coking coal futures will affect sentiment. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region [5] - Polysilicon policy expectations have significantly cooled, and the futures price has returned to fundamental analysis. The supply in October is still in surplus, and the industry inventory is difficult to decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent implementation of policies [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price has increased, with the Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan month - on - month) and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,200 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, closing at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained stable, with upstream quotes firm and downstream making small - scale replenishments [1] 2. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has decreased month - on - month, with increased production in Xinjiang, slightly decreased production in Sichuan, and stable production in Yunnan. The futures warehouse receipts have increased by 0.2 tons week - on - week, the social inventory has remained unchanged, and the factory inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons [2] - Demand: The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors support consumption. The short - term weekly production of silicon materials remains high, and the silicon powder tender price has increased. The weekly production of organic silicon has slightly decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains at a rigid level. The aluminum alloy sector has rigid orders, and the actual trading volume has not significantly increased. The export market has remained stable [2] Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production remains high. The estimated production in September is about 127,000 tons, and the planned production in October is about 125,000 tons. The upstream inventory has increased [3] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule may gradually decrease. The downstream has replenished inventory for 2 - 3 months, and the next replenishment time may be in mid - October [3][4] 3. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - The sentiment will decline, and the futures price may test the cost line of small factories in Xinjiang. The upper limit of the futures price can refer to the hedging position during the dry season in the southwest region, which is around 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton (corresponding to the SI2512 contract) [5] Polysilicon - The policy expectations have cooled, and the futures price has adjusted downward. When the futures price falls to around 49,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton, non - standard product shipments are good, providing support for the futures price [6]

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：国庆节前空单止盈 | | • | 纯苯国产：9月检修损失量6万吨，10~11月之后检修逐步降低。回到3~5万吨左右。9月新装置投产压力偏大，5.6万吨兑现。10、11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 月份分别有2.5、4.1万吨新产能落地。主要是裕龙石化，吉林石化，湖南石化，广西石化等。 | | | • | 纯苯进口：目前9月进口维持40-43万吨预期，四季度进口预期抬升，10月维持50万吨进口预期，11-12月维持高进口预期。外盘仍然 | | | • | 供应压力偏大。 苯乙烯：9月检修集中兑现，7.9万吨主要是广东石化和浙石化的影响相对较大。10~11月仍然有月均6万吨的检修，主要是镇海炼化和 | | | | 卫星石化影响。与此同时，苯乙烯的投产仍然在持续落地。预计11月吉林石化和广西石化均能落地，新增月均产量4万吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact: Zhao Shucen [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views LPG Part - Short - term support is not weak. Domestic supply has a slight increase, and import to - ship volume is expected to rise next week. Demand in the civil and chemical sectors is expected to strengthen [3]. - This week, civil gas prices showed different trends in different regions, and the FEI price of imported gas decreased slightly. Next week, import costs may increase, and the fundamentals may provide some support [4]. Propylene Part - Supply devices are gradually returning, and the market is expected to run weakly in the short - term, but there is still support at the bottom [5]. Group 4: Summary by Sections LPG Part - Price & Spread - This week, civil gas prices in East China declined slightly, those in Shandong rose slightly, and those in South China were relatively firm. Imported gas prices showed a narrow - range decline. The week - on - week changes in different regions varied [3][4][8]. - The US - Far East freight first remained stable and then declined, the FEI discount weakened, and the arbitrage space narrowed [20]. LPG Part - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 53.9 tons, a 0.1% increase week - on - week. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.1 tons, a 4.8% increase, while the ether - after carbon four commodity volume was 18.0 tons, a 1.6% decrease [3][64]. - The international ship - arrival volume decreased by 4.1 tons this week, mainly in East China, but it is expected to increase next week [3]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, the civil demand is strengthening, and the PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased [3]. - Refinery inventories in East China and South China showed different trends, and port inventories in South China decreased while those in East China and Shandong increased [80][95]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI increased slightly, and propylene prices in different regions and international markets showed a downward trend [106]. - The profits of different production methods in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different changes [106][108]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [127]. - From January to September 2025, the supply and demand of domestic propylene showed different changes in different months, and the balance volume also fluctuated [130][131].

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月28日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：原料供应扰动增强，具备长期多配价值 资料来源： SMM，同花顺iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 2 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： ◆ 铜矿供应扰动增强，铜价快速上涨。自由港就先前报告的印尼Grasberg Block Cave矿泥石流事件状况提供最新信息，主要包含以下几个 方面：（1）如先前报告，为优先进行搜救，Grasberg矿区的采矿作业自9月8日起已暂停；（2）PTFI已开始调查事件起因，预计调查将 在2025年底前完成；（3）维修工作可能导致2025年第四季度和2026年的生产出现重大推迟，预计在2027年恢复至事件前的运营水平； （4）PTFI在2026年的产量可能较事件前预估低约35%；（5）受事件影响，P ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 数据 | | 本周收盘价 | 周涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2512 | 10,632 | 6.63% | 4380 | -1.68% | | 白银T+D | 10,551 | 6.15% | 4351 | -1.98% | | Comex白银2512 | 46.365 | 6.92% | - | - | | 伦敦银现货 沪金2512 | 46.032 856.06 | 6.90% 3.07% | - 388.30 | - -0.49% | | 黄金T+D Comex黄金2512 | 852.90 3,789.8 | 3.26% 1.89% | 386.86 - | -0.64% - | | 伦敦金现货 | 3,758.8 | 2.01% | - | - | | 【期货成交及持仓变动】 | | | | | | 单位：手 | 本周成交 | 较前周变动 | 本周持仓 | 较前周变动 | | 沪银2512 | 802,586 | 333367 | 544,232 | 110250 | ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 强弱分析：中性 精废价差趋势性回落 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A00收敛明显 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains the view that the medium - term general direction of the treasury bond futures market is oscillating with a bearish bias [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts have been in a continuous weekly correction, with the ultra - long - end performing weakly. Before the National Day holiday, some profit - taking sales led to a decrease in the stock market's risk appetite and a rebound in the bond market [4][5]. - The treasury bond futures market showed an oscillating and relatively strong trend this week. Policy coordination and liquidity expectations dominated market sentiment. Long - term varieties were more active but their prices were under pressure, while short - term varieties were relatively stable [5]. - The central bank restarted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation and adjusted its tender method, releasing a signal of liquidity support. However, the policy coordination effect weakened the supply shock. The new regulations on public fund sales increased the short - bond redemption pressure, and there were differences in the market's expectations for additional loose - money policies. Combined with the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the bond market was under short - term pressure [5]. - The risk appetite has significantly decreased in recent trading days, but the bond market has not improved. In terms of the net long - position changes, private funds slightly reduced their positions, while wealth management subsidiaries and foreign capital slightly increased their positions, showing a divergence between speculative and allocation funds [5]. - Based on the initial information of the September EPMI, the macro - economic monthly环比 situation has warmed up, but the overall growth performance in the third quarter was relatively weak. There is still room for policy deployment, and inflation环比 has marginally improved. Policies to guide long - term funds into the market are in the ascendant [5]. - The treasury bond futures market shows a differentiated feature of short - term stability and intensified long - term fluctuations, with a significant change in the yield curve shape. The trading volume of the 30 - year treasury bond futures has significantly increased, indicating increased long - term selling pressure and intensified long - short game [9]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking No specific content provided other than the title and source information [12][13]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily changes in the net long - position of different institutional types: private funds decreased by 6.67%, foreign capital decreased by 0.51%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.51%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds decreased by 5.46%, foreign capital increased by 14.04%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 13.74% [14].

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 行业资讯 1.【国内双胶纸周度企业库存分析】据卓创资讯数据监测统计，本周四双胶纸库存天数较上周四上升1.26%，本周增幅环比扩大0.25个百分 点。行业整体开工水平回升，货源供应量增加，但市场需求跟进有限，纸厂库存进一步累积。 2.【国内双胶纸周度企业开工负荷分析】据卓创资讯数据统计，本周双胶纸开工负荷率在51.54%，环比上升0.76个百分点，本周增幅环比扩 大0.10个百分点。周内山东个别产线开工回升，其余规模纸厂开工水平变化不大，行业开工负荷率小幅提升。 资料来源： 卓创资讯，国泰君安期货研 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, fuel oil prices rose significantly, with the price center gradually reaching a two - month high. For high - sulfur fuel oil, market transactions improved slightly, the premium increased, Middle East shipments remained high, but Russian exports continued to decline. Due to recent attacks and sanctions, nearly one - third of Russian refinery capacity was offline, so supply factors still supported high - sulfur fuel oil. If Russian exports continue to face obstacles, high - sulfur fuel oil valuations may continue to rise. For low - sulfur fuel oil, there is no obvious supply gap in the Asia - Pacific region, and spot shipments are normal. The August Singapore bunker sales data was good, providing some support on the demand side. On the domestic market, the quota issue has been fully priced in by the market, but inventory continued to accumulate in the Zhoushan area, and there were still warehouse receipts on the futures market. In the short term, the price may be relatively weaker than that of high - sulfur fuel oil. - Valuation: FU is estimated to be in the range of 2700 - 3000, and LU is estimated to be in the range of 3400 - 3650. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: FU will continue to be strong in the short term, and LU will mainly follow the upward trend. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain the current structure. 3) Inter - variety: FU cracking will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Refinery Operations**: The document presents the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [6] - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: It shows the maintenance volumes of global CDU devices, hydrocracking devices, FCC devices, and coking devices over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [9][11][13][14] - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: It shows the monthly production of fuel oil in China, the monthly production of low - sulfur fuel oil in Chinese refineries, and the monthly domestic commercial volume of fuel oil over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [20] 3.2 Demand - **Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data**: It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [23] 3.3 Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: It shows the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [26][28][29] 3.4 Price and Spread - **Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in north - western Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [34][35][36][38][39][41] - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in north - western Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [43][44] - **US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices**: It shows the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high - sulfur fuel oil cargo prices in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil prices in the USAC over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [44] - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: It shows the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in north - western Europe, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swaps, Singapore 380 bunker swaps, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) over different time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [47][48][51] - **Fuel Oil Spot Spreads**: It shows the Singapore high - low sulfur spread, Singapore viscosity spread, and other spreads over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [57][58][59] - **Global Fuel Oil Cracking Spreads**: It shows the cracking spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [62][63][64] - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spreads**: It shows the monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and north - western Europe over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [66] 3.5 Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China over different years, but no specific analysis is provided. [71][73] - **Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [75] - **Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: It shows the weekly changes in global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export volumes in different regions, but no specific analysis is provided. [77] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - **Review**: This week, Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices rose significantly, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the international market, and the premium continued to recover. - **Logic**: This week, spot prices at home and abroad rebounded significantly. On the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread continued to repair. The same situation occurred for LU. Due to the relatively small new batch of quotas, the domestic LU maintained a stable spread with the international spot market. [80] - **Internal - External Spreads**: It shows the internal - external spreads of 380 spot, 0.5% spot, and domestic futures contracts (FU and LU) against Singapore over different dates, but no specific analysis is provided. [81] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - It shows the trading volumes and open interest of fuel oil main - continuous contracts, fuel oil continuous contracts, low - sulfur fuel oil continuous contracts, and related sub - contracts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [94][96][99] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - It shows the changes in the number of FU and LU warehouse receipts over different years and time periods, but no specific analysis is provided. [105][106]