请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026年01月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注海外矿山复产进展 | 4 | | 工业硅：下游减产，需求走弱 | 6 | | 多晶硅：底部震荡态势 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 15 日 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 140,940 | 2,490 | -6,780 | 8,090 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [2][4] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effects of crude oil [2][4] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the progress of the China - Canada trade event [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][11] - Sugar: Mainly show a weak trend [2][15] - Cotton: Continue the adjustment trend [2][19] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, and sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25] - Hogs: Demand expectations are priced in ahead of time [2][28] - Peanuts: Fluctuate within a range [2][32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,748 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.19%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,000 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.18%, and night - session closing price was 7,982 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. It will also raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% starting from March 1. Analysts believe that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared, and the plan to raise export taxes may further suppress prices [5][6] - **Trend strength**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend strength of - 1 [7] Soybean meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental data**: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4323 yuan/ton with a decline of 31 yuan (- 0.71%), and night - session closing price was 4332 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan (+ 0.07%). DCE Soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2751 yuan/ton with a decline of 25 yuan (- 0.90%), and night - session closing price was 2754 yuan/ton with an increase of 5 yuan (+ 0.18%) [8] - **Macro and industry news**: On January 14, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound. Private exporters reported selling 33.4 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/26. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 804 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and the total imports in 2025 were estimated to be 111.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5%. However, Brazil's record soybean harvest may reduce China's demand for US soybeans [10] - **Trend strength**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend strength of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,272 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.70% during the day and 2,282 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44% at night. The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% during the day and 2,278 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13% at night [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, and Guangdong Shekou prices were also stable. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, while North China corn prices declined slightly [13] - **Trend strength**: Corn has a trend strength of 0 [14] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.68 cents/pound with a decline of 0.21. The mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5299 yuan/ton with an increase of 46 yuan [15] - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025/26, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, and it had signed 180,000 tons of export contracts. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons). CAOC expects China's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in 2025/26 [15][16][17] - **Trend strength**: Sugar has a trend strength of - 1 [18] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,810 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 14780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20% at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,835 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 20820 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07% at night [19] - **Macro and industry news**: Cotton spot trading was generally light, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly [20][21] - **Trend strength**: Cotton has a trend strength of 0 [22] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of eggs 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.94%, and the closing price of eggs 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.56% [25] - **Trend strength**: Eggs have a trend strength of 0 [26] Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13260 yuan/ton. The price of hogs 2603 was 12010 yuan/ton, hogs 2605 was 12260 yuan/ton, and hogs 2607 was 12885 yuan/ton [29] - **Trend strength**: Hogs have a trend strength of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK603 was 7,844 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and PK605 was 7,860 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10% [32] - **Macro and industry news**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable with a slight decline in some areas [33] - **Trend strength**: Peanuts have a trend strength of 0 [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides insights into various commodities in the black series, with different views on each commodity: - Iron ore: Valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing higher prices. [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Prices will experience wide-range fluctuations. [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels. [2][14] - Thermal coal: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and prices will undergo narrow adjustments in the short term. [2][18] - Logs: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The open interest decreased by 1,527 lots to 653,307 lots. Spot prices of imported iron ore decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton across the board, while domestic iron ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed slight changes. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years since 2017. [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook. [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%, and the HC2605 contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09%. Spot prices of rebar remained stable in most regions, while hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons or 4.2%, and the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons or 11.1%. Weekly data on January 8 showed that the production of rebar increased by 2.82 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons, while the apparent demand decreased. In late December 2025, the daily average production of key steel enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of five major steel products decreased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export license management for some steel products. [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook. [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,690 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing prices of the silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,920 yuan/ton and 5,938 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +4 yuan/ton and -6 yuan/ton. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable. The basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads showed various changes. [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Various regions released price information on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and multiple mining companies announced price increases for manganese ore in February 2026. Some steel companies increased their procurement volume and price of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in January. [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook. [10][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal contract was 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.5%, and the J2605 coke contract was 1,738.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.4%. Spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends, with some increasing and some decreasing, while coke prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index showed price increases for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi. Due to heavy rainfall and floods in Australia, some coal mines issued force majeure notices, exacerbating the tight supply pattern of Australian coal and accelerating the price increase. [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook. [14][16] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Overseas prices of thermal coal decreased, with the Indonesian FOB Q3800 at 49.0 US dollars/ton and the Australian FOB Q5500 at 74.2 US dollars/ton. The January long-term agreement price of port Q5500 thermal coal was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton. [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a month-on-month increase of 33.01%. In December 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed and the month-on-month increase expanded; the year-on-year increase of CPI expanded and the month-on-month increase turned positive. There were rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal production capacity for power generation security. [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of log futures contracts showed slight increases, with daily and weekly price changes ranging from 0% to 0.6%. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with some showing small fluctuations. [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook. [23]

2026 年 1 月 15 日 胶版印刷纸：空单持有 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2026/1/13 | 2026/1/12 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税成本 | 5292 | 5293 | -1 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Tin prices recently broke through the historical high of 395,000 yuan/ton in 2022, reaching above 400,000 yuan/ton and hitting the daily limit with an 8% increase today [2] - The recent rise in tin prices is due to tight supply, low inventory, and smooth price transmission to downstream [2] - Tin prices are expected to continue rising, with the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions - In the case of lack of liquidity in the futures market's daily limit, consider buying call options to hedge risks, while controlling the purchase cost of strike price + premium [3] - For customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce positions, consider arranging some short - term and wide - range Phoenix accumulator put options to reduce positions when the price surges and increase income during fluctuations [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - No core view provided in the report Group 3: Summary by Metal Gold - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE gold's main contract was 1040.62 yuan/gram, the near - month contract was 1036.60 yuan/gram; COMEX gold's main contract was 471.00 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was - 24.90 dollars/ounce; the London gold spot price was 276.25 dollars/ounce, and the SGE gold spot price was 25.65 yuan/gram [1] - The domestic basis (Gold T + D - main contract) was - 1.35 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 28.65 dollars/ounce [1] Silver - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE silver's main contract was 22763 yuan/kilogram, the near - month contract was 22906 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver's main contract was 22.73 dollars/ounce, the near - month contract was 2.16 dollars/ounce; the London silver spot price was 1.75 dollars/ounce, and the SGE silver spot price was 1.553 yuan/kilogram [1] - The domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was 106 yuan/gram, and the overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 1.70 dollars/ounce [1] Copper - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 104120 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 280 yuan/ton; the main contract of international copper was 9.930 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 90760 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M was 173.00 dollars/ton, and COMEX copper's main contract was 0.15 dollars/pound [1] - The SHFE copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 220 yuan/ton, the international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 1.580 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 0 - 3 spread was 90.23 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE copper warehouse receipt inventory was 149339 tons, the international copper was 3223 tons, the LME copper was 141550 tons, and the COMEX copper was 78879 short tons [1] Aluminum and Alumina - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 24595 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 2630 yuan/ton; the alumina's main contract was 20 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 2543 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M was 3193.00 dollars/ton, and COMEX aluminum's main contract was - 3143.25 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 55 yuan/ton, the alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 133 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was 22 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 55752 tons, the alumina was 11737 tons, the LME aluminum was 494000 tons, and the COMEX aluminum was 529497 tons [1] Zinc - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 24475 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 24400 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3M was - 23 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 25 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was 13.26 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt inventory was - 351 tons, and the LME zinc was 11350 tons [1] Lead - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 17385 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 70 yuan/ton; LME lead 3M was 2.00 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was 0 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread was - 43.81 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory was 9.720 tons, and the LME lead was 218925 tons [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 140940 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 27450 yuan/ton; the stainless steel's main contract was 13925 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 1.360 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M was - 770 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 890 yuan/ton, the stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was - 270 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was 35 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 40272 tons, the stainless steel was - 770 tons, and the LME nickel was 284148 tons [1] Tin - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 413170 yuan/ton, the continuous contract was 409900 yuan/ton; LME tin 3M was 10360 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was - 3270 yuan/ton, and the LME tin 0 - 3 spread was 318 dollars/ton [1] - The SHFE tin warehouse receipt inventory was 7107 tons, and the LME tin was 5930 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, 2026, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 opened slightly higher. IC2603 and IM2603 reached new highs since their listing, with significant increases compared to IF2603 and IH2603 [2]. - Based on macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the main contracts of stock index futures are expected to show certain trends, resistance, and support levels today and in January 2026 [3]. - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5% [2][4]. - The World Bank raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous prediction [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Conditions of Stock Index Futures - **January 14, 2026 Market Performance**: IF2603 and IH2603 oscillated upward, while IC2603 and IM2603 showed strong upward oscillations. IC2603 reached a new high of 8388.6 points since July 20, 2015, and IM2603 reached a new high of 8419.0 points since July 22, 2022 [2]. - **Today's Forecast**: IF2603 and IH2603 are expected to oscillate strongly. IC2603 and IM2603 are expected to oscillate strongly and reach new highs. Specific resistance and support levels are provided [3][11][12]. - **January 2026 Forecast**: The main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are expected to oscillate strongly, with specific resistance and support levels, and IM is expected to reach a new high since its listing [3][14][15]. 2. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - **Foreign Trade in 2025**: China's foreign trade had five characteristics: record - high scale, diversified markets, high - quality exports, growing imports, and increased enterprise vitality. For example, high - tech product exports increased by 13.2%, and private enterprise imports and exports increased by 7.1% [6]. - **Policy Adjustment**: On January 14, 2026, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% to reduce leverage and protect investors' interests [7][8]. - **International News**: Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, canceled talks with Iranian officials, and the US considered military options. The investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued, and the World Bank adjusted the global economic growth forecast [7][8][9]. - **Stock Market Performance**: On January 14, 2026, the A - share market rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% approaching 4200 points, and the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 14, 2026, and the trend of the main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the domestic commodity futures market showed a mixed trend. Precious metals led the gains with Shanghai silver up 5.9%, while shipping futures led the losses with the container shipping index (European line) down 5.45%. New energy materials also had a mixed performance, with polycrystalline silicon down 4.45% and lithium carbonate up 7.44% [9]. 2. Macro - economic Information - The World Bank raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It is expected that the US GDP growth rate will reach 2.2% in 2026, the Eurozone's economic growth rate will slow to 0.9%, and Japan's economic growth rate will slow to 0.8% [7]. - The US 2025 December budget deficit was $145 billion, a record high for the month. The US 2026 fiscal year - to - date deficit was $602 billion, compared with $711 billion in the same period of the 2025 fiscal year [8]. - The US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining flat compared with the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January 2026, with a probability as high as 95% [8]. 3. Stock Index Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main stock index futures contracts such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all showed a trend of rising and then falling. The short - term upward momentum weakened, and the downward pressure increased to some extent [12][13][14]. - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate [16][17]. 4. Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main gold futures contract AU2602 rose slightly. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AU2602 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [36][37]. - **Silver Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main silver futures contract AG2604 rose slightly. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AG2604 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [39][40]. - **Platinum Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main platinum futures contract PT2606 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract PT2606 will probably fluctuate strongly [46][47]. - **Palladium Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main palladium futures contract PD2606 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract PD2606 will probably fluctuate strongly [51]. 5. Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main copper futures contract CU2603 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract CU2603 will probably fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main aluminum futures contract AL2603 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract AL2603 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [59][60]. - **Nickel Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main nickel futures contract NI2602 fell. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably have a wide - range strong fluctuation. On January 14, 2026, the main contract NI2602 will probably fluctuate strongly [66]. - **Tin Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main tin futures contract SN2602 rose. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly and will hit a record high. On January 14, 2026, the main contract SN2602 will probably fluctuate strongly and may hit a record high again [69]. 6. Other Futures - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate futures contract LC2605 rose sharply. It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contract will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract LC2605 will probably fluctuate strongly [75][76]. - **Rebar Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main rebar futures contract RB2605 showed a slight decline. It is expected that in January 2026, the main contract RB2605 will probably fluctuate strongly. On January 14, 2026, the main contract RB2605 will probably fluctuate strongly [79]. - **Fuel Oil Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the main fuel oil futures contract FU2603 showed a slight increase. It is expected that on January 14, 2026, the main contract FU2603 will probably fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance level and the daily limit [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials, and hedging strategies such as going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC and short on PX. Although PX supply is currently loose and downstream PTA polyester's future operation may decline, the rising oil price provides cost support, and the unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend [7]. - PTA has strong cost support. The strategy of going long on SC and short on PTA is recommended. The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. Pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the impact of polyester's planned production cut needs to be observed. PTA is expected to remain in a tight - balance state [7]. - MEG is expected to have a short - term unilateral strong rebound, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the spring maintenance plan of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7282, with a decline of 26 and a decline rate of 0.36%. The PX5 - 9 spread was 58, down 12 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5140, with a decline of 2 and a decline rate of 0.04%. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 52, up 4 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3815, with a decline of 65 and a decline rate of 1.68%. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 118, down 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6506, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 58, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 446.7, with an increase of 9.2 and an increase rate of 2.10%. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1.1, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's price of PX CFR China was 898.67 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's price of PTA in East China was 5060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's price of MEG spot was 3682 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The previous day's price of naphtha MOPJ was 561.25 dollars/ton, up 3.25 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent Oil**: The previous day's price of Dated Brent was 68.56 dollars/barrel, up 3.15 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - **PX**: On January 13, the PX price rose. The estimated price of PX was 899 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from January 12. The Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea prices assessed by Platts on January 13 were 898.67 dollars/ton and 877.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 50 cents/ton. South Korea's S - Oil will shut down its No. 1 xylene production line with an annual output of 800,000 tons for planned maintenance in March [3][5]. - **PTA**: The current PTA operation rate is maintained at 78%. There is an overhaul plan for Yisheng New Materials' device in January, so the load increase space is limited. Polyester filament factories discussed production cuts, with a planned reduction of 15% in FDY production, and the impact on the overall polyester load depends on the implementation of the production - cut plan [7]. - **MEG**: The restart time of a 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Henan is to be determined. It was shut down around the end of 2025 to replace the catalyst, with an expected shutdown time of about two weeks [5]. - **Polyester**: On January 13, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by around 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 87% by around 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [6].

2026 年 1 月 14 日 商 品 研 究 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4329 -20（-0.46%） | 4333 | -21 （-0.48%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | -25（-0.90%） 2761 | 2745 | （-1.12%） -31 | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1039 -11.5（-1.09%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 291.9 -6.5（-2.18%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 较昨-10至持平； 3110～3200， M2605+350/+390， 持平或+10； | 1月M2605+350/+380， 2-3月M2605+360/+400， | 持平； 2月 持平； 3月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2605+330/+350/+370/+380/+390/+400， | 持平或-20； | ...