Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, 2026, the four major stock index futures contracts of the current month showed mixed trends. IF fell by 0.63%, IH fell by 0.79%, IC rose by 0.64%, and IM rose by 0.08% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 35,576 lots, 13,666 lots, 81,143 lots, and 73,493 lots respectively. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 12,419 lots, 3,997 lots, 17,852 lots, and 13,386 lots respectively [2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading by the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges, the performance of the A - share market, and other policies and market conditions are important driving factors [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4741.9, down 0.40%; the closing price of SSE 50 was 3112.1, down 0.67%; the closing price of CSI 500 was 8227.7, up 1.04%; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 8257.2, up 0.66%. Among the corresponding futures contracts, the price trends were also mixed [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of different futures contracts varied, such as IF2601 with a basis of - 4.33, IH2601 with a basis of - 3.07, etc. [1]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The trading volume and turnover of different contracts also showed different changes. For example, the turnover of IF2603 was 1717.2 billion yuan, and the trading volume increased by 22,545 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes. For example, the open interest of IF2601 decreased by 8,395 lots [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Position Changes in Stock Index Futures - The position changes of long and short orders of the top 20 members in different contracts were different. For example, in IF2601, the long - order change was - 6541, and the short - order change was - 6248 [5]. 3.3 Important Driving Factors - **Policy Adjustment**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors' margin - buying securities from 80% to 100% [6]. - **Tax Policy**: The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the personal income tax policy to support residents' housing exchange and purchase, providing tax - refund incentives for eligible taxpayers from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [7]. - **Foreign Trade Data**: In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5% [8].

2026 年 01 月 15 日 工业硅：下游减产，需求走弱 多晶硅：底部震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,755 | 120 | -225 | 470 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 245,936 | -24,140 | -231,450 | 42,007 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 235,089 | -7,380 | -9,645 | 88,015 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 48,945 | -60 | -9,355 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 20,942 | -7,437 | 361 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 48,439 | -405 | -19,361 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market continues to adjust. Domestic cotton spot trading is generally weak, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures are fluctuating slightly, waiting for new fundamental drivers [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,810 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.34% daily increase, and 14,780 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.20% decrease. CY2603 closed at 20,835 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.34% daily increase, and 20,820 yuan/ton in the night session with a -0.07% decrease. ICE cotton 3 closed at 64.96 cents/pound yesterday with a 0.05% increase. The trading volume of CF2605 was 457,154 lots, a decrease of 253,199 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,211,692 lots, an increase of 10,015 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 8,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 15,756 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,836, an increase of 426, and the valid forecast was 1,612, a decrease of 95. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged, and the valid forecast was 7, an increase of 63 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,640 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan or 0.32% increase from the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,630 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan or 0.32% increase from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 16,067 yuan/ton, a 176 - yuan or 1.11% increase from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 15,983 yuan/ton, a 203 - yuan or 1.29% increase from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,970 yuan/ton, a 187 - yuan or 1.18% increase from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 72.94 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,026 yuan/ton, a 1 - yuan increase from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF3 - 5 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is weak, and the local locked - basis trading is relatively better. The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly reported at CF05 + 1000 and above, and a small amount with impurity between 3 - 3.5 is quoted in the range of 950 - 1000, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 machine - picked cotton from North and South Xinjiang in Shandong and Henan warehouses with 3130/30 and impurity within 3 is mostly in the range of CF05 + 1350 - 1600, for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the overall price of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The quotation of combed high - count yarn is firm. The overall market trading atmosphere of pure - cotton yarn is still weak. The actual selling price center of medium and low - count varieties has moved slightly downward. Recently, the sales of traceable yarn and low - count yarn have improved slightly, and most spinning enterprises have limited new orders [2] - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market is waiting for new fundamental drivers [3] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - LLDPE futures and spot market continue to resonate with low standard product production. The spot market has tightened liquidity in the short - term, with improved trade - sample transactions. The outer - market quotation is rising, and the long - term import profit is open, but downstream factories are mostly cautious. The raw material end has mixed trends, and the supply side has some changes with potential future supply - demand pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6820, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The trading volume is 640471, and the open interest decreased by 10862. The 05 - contract basis is - 120 (compared to - 66 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 35 (compared to - 36 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the price is 6700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the east, it is 6850 yuan/ton (up from 6750 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it is 6900 yuan/ton (up from 6850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. Spot News - The futures rally continues. The spot market has short - term liquidity tightening due to active short - covering and hedging transactions. PE spot prices are rising actively, and the east - China basis has strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits are compressed, but rigid demand orders are maintained, and trade - sample transactions have improved significantly. Outer - market quotations are rising, and long - term import profits are open, with increased importer transactions, while downstream factories are cautious [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price is stabilizing and fluctuating, the ethylene monomer segment is weakening, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has improved. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film market is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but the willingness of middle and lower - stream to hold inventory has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream is offering discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [15]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - **Alumina**: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - **Platinum**: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - **Palladium**: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - **Stainless steel**: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - **Polysilicon**: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - **Iron ore**: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Coke**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Coking coal**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Steam coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - **Para - xylene**: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - **PTA**: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The center is moving up [15][87]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - **PP**: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - **Caustic soda**: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15][100]. - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - **Urea**: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - **PVC**: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - **Fuel oil**: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - **Staple fiber**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - **Bottle chips**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - **Offset printing paper**: Hold short positions [15][160]. - **Pure benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - **Palm oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - **Soybean oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - **Soybean meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - **Sugar**: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - **Egg**: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - **Live pig**: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating [15][196].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2026年01月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：高位震荡，关注海外矿山复产进展 | 4 | | 工业硅：下游减产，需求走弱 | 6 | | 多晶硅：底部震荡态势 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 15 日 镍：产业与二级资金博弈，宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：镍铁抬升震荡重心，盘面博弈印尼政策 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 140,940 | 2,490 | -6,780 | 8,090 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [2][4] - Soybean oil: Limited momentum for US soybeans, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effects of crude oil [2][4] - Soybean meal: Range - bound, waiting for the progress of the China - Canada trade event [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][11] - Sugar: Mainly show a weak trend [2][15] - Cotton: Continue the adjustment trend [2][19] - Eggs: Spot market is profitable, and sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25] - Hogs: Demand expectations are priced in ahead of time [2][28] - Peanuts: Fluctuate within a range [2][32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,748 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.19%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,000 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.18%, and night - session closing price was 7,982 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. It will also raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5% starting from March 1. Analysts believe that the upward catalyst for crude palm oil prices may have disappeared, and the plan to raise export taxes may further suppress prices [5][6] - **Trend strength**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend strength of - 1 [7] Soybean meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental data**: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4323 yuan/ton with a decline of 31 yuan (- 0.71%), and night - session closing price was 4332 yuan/ton with an increase of 3 yuan (+ 0.07%). DCE Soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2751 yuan/ton with a decline of 25 yuan (- 0.90%), and night - session closing price was 2754 yuan/ton with an increase of 5 yuan (+ 0.18%) [8] - **Macro and industry news**: On January 14, CBOT soybeans had a technical rebound. Private exporters reported selling 33.4 tons of soybeans to China in 2025/26. China's soybean imports in December 2025 were 804 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%, and the total imports in 2025 were estimated to be 111.8 million tons, an increase of 6.5%. However, Brazil's record soybean harvest may reduce China's demand for US soybeans [10] - **Trend strength**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend strength of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,272 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.70% during the day and 2,282 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.44% at night. The closing price of C2605 was 2,275 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22% during the day and 2,278 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13% at night [12] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically flat, and Guangdong Shekou prices were also stable. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, while North China corn prices declined slightly [13] - **Trend strength**: Corn has a trend strength of 0 [14] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 14.68 cents/pound with a decline of 0.21. The mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5299 yuan/ton with an increase of 46 yuan [15] - **Macro and industry news**: As of December 31, 2025/26, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, and it had signed 180,000 tons of export contracts. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November (- 90,000 tons). CAOC expects China's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in 2025/26 [15][16][17] - **Trend strength**: Sugar has a trend strength of - 1 [18] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,810 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 14780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.20% at night. The closing price of CY2603 was 20,835 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.34% during the day and 20820 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07% at night [19] - **Macro and industry news**: Cotton spot trading was generally light, and the overall price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline. ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate slightly [20][21] - **Trend strength**: Cotton has a trend strength of 0 [22] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of eggs 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.94%, and the closing price of eggs 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kilograms with a decline of 0.56% [25] - **Trend strength**: Eggs have a trend strength of 0 [26] Hogs - **Fundamental data**: The Henan spot price was 13030 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13000 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 13260 yuan/ton. The price of hogs 2603 was 12010 yuan/ton, hogs 2605 was 12260 yuan/ton, and hogs 2607 was 12885 yuan/ton [29] - **Trend strength**: Hogs have a trend strength of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha common peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK603 was 7,844 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and PK605 was 7,860 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10% [32] - **Macro and industry news**: In the spot market, the prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were generally stable with a slight decline in some areas [33] - **Trend strength**: Peanuts have a trend strength of 0 [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides insights into various commodities in the black series, with different views on each commodity: - Iron ore: Valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing higher prices. [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Prices will experience wide-range fluctuations. [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels. [2][14] - Thermal coal: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and prices will undergo narrow adjustments in the short term. [2][18] - Logs: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The open interest decreased by 1,527 lots to 653,307 lots. Spot prices of imported iron ore decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton across the board, while domestic iron ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed slight changes. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years since 2017. [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook. [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%, and the HC2605 contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09%. Spot prices of rebar remained stable in most regions, while hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons or 4.2%, and the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons or 11.1%. Weekly data on January 8 showed that the production of rebar increased by 2.82 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons, while the apparent demand decreased. In late December 2025, the daily average production of key steel enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of five major steel products decreased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export license management for some steel products. [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook. [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,690 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing prices of the silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,920 yuan/ton and 5,938 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +4 yuan/ton and -6 yuan/ton. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable. The basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads showed various changes. [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Various regions released price information on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and multiple mining companies announced price increases for manganese ore in February 2026. Some steel companies increased their procurement volume and price of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in January. [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook. [10][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal contract was 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.5%, and the J2605 coke contract was 1,738.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.4%. Spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends, with some increasing and some decreasing, while coke prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index showed price increases for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi. Due to heavy rainfall and floods in Australia, some coal mines issued force majeure notices, exacerbating the tight supply pattern of Australian coal and accelerating the price increase. [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook. [14][16] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Overseas prices of thermal coal decreased, with the Indonesian FOB Q3800 at 49.0 US dollars/ton and the Australian FOB Q5500 at 74.2 US dollars/ton. The January long-term agreement price of port Q5500 thermal coal was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton. [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a month-on-month increase of 33.01%. In December 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed and the month-on-month increase expanded; the year-on-year increase of CPI expanded and the month-on-month increase turned positive. There were rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal production capacity for power generation security. [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of log futures contracts showed slight increases, with daily and weekly price changes ranging from 0% to 0.6%. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with some showing small fluctuations. [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook. [23]

2026 年 1 月 15 日 胶版印刷纸：空单持有 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市 场 | 区 域 | 纸 种 | 2026/1/13 | 2026/1/12 | 环 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天 阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税 前 | 含税成本 | 5292 | 5293 | -1 | | 成本利润 | | 税前毛 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Tin prices recently broke through the historical high of 395,000 yuan/ton in 2022, reaching above 400,000 yuan/ton and hitting the daily limit with an 8% increase today [2] - The recent rise in tin prices is due to tight supply, low inventory, and smooth price transmission to downstream [2] - Tin prices are expected to continue rising, with the next target around 450,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Strategy Suggestions - In the case of lack of liquidity in the futures market's daily limit, consider buying call options to hedge risks, while controlling the purchase cost of strike price + premium [3] - For customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce positions, consider arranging some short - term and wide - range Phoenix accumulator put options to reduce positions when the price surges and increase income during fluctuations [4]