Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bearish on the cotton industry [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The July report is bearish as global cotton production and ending stocks have been revised upwards, and the supply in the new season remains relatively loose, with international cotton prices expected to fluctuate at low levels [1][2] - The cotton in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries is still in the growing stage, and weather conditions should continue to be monitored [1][2] - Although there are some positive signals in China-US trade negotiations, the specific situation remains to be observed, and China-US relations have a significant impact on the demand for US cotton in the new season [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: Global cotton production in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 311,000 tons month-on-month, with China's production up 218,000 tons to 6.75 million tons and still having room for further increase, and US production up 131,000 tons due to increased planting and harvest areas and favorable weather [1] - **Consumption**: Global cotton consumption in the 25/26 season has been revised upwards by 80,000 tons month-on-month, with China's consumption unchanged and Pakistan's up 65,000 tons. Overall consumption is stable, but trade conflicts are numerous, and China-US relations significantly affect US cotton demand [1] - **Imports and Exports**: Global cotton imports in the 25/26 season have decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month, with Pakistan's imports up 131,000 tons and China's down 152,000 tons to 1.263 million tons. Global exports have decreased by 21,000 tons, with no adjustments to major exporters [1] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 25/26 season have increased by 114,000 tons month-on-month, with the US up 66,000 tons, Pakistan up 43,000 tons, and both China and India up 11,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 311,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 323,000 tons [3] - **Consumption**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton consumption is 25.718 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 309,000 tons [3] - **Imports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton imports are 9.728 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 450,000 tons [3] - **Exports**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global cotton exports are 9.73 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 21,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 369,000 tons [3] - **Ending Stocks**: In 2025/26 (July), the total global ending stocks are 16.721 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 114,000 tons [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Neutral oscillation (adjusted from relatively strong) [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (one star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No specific star rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ (suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, for observation) [1] Core Viewpoints - The increase in global oil inventories accelerated marginally in Q2, and the overall inventory decreased by 0.3% in the first week of Q3. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating of the crude oil market this week is adjusted to neutral oscillation [2]. - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widens. The FU crack spread is expected to continue its downward trend, while the LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The asphalt supply increase's resilience needs further observation, and the price increase is limited before demand improves substantially [3]. - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures market oscillates weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, the overall inventory decreased by 0.3%. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the rating is adjusted from relatively strong to neutral oscillation. The upside space for Brent crude above $70/barrel is limited [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel - related futures follow the downward trend, with a deeper decline in FU and a widening spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils. The supply of high - sulfur heavy resources is expected to increase, and the FU crack spread is expected to decline. The LU crack spread may turn into a sideways pattern [2]. Asphalt - If the increase in the deduction ratio is mainly for secondary hydrogenation units, it will divert asphalt supply. The cumulative year - on - year increase in the shipments of 54 sample refineries decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June. The asphalt price is supported by low inventory, and the upward movement is limited before demand improves [3]. LPG - The Middle East's production increase pressure persists, and the overseas LPG price continues to oscillate weakly. The domestic LPG market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the top of the domestic gas price under pressure. The futures market oscillates weakly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not explicitly rated - Pure Benzene: Not explicitly rated - Styrene: Not explicitly rated - Polyester (PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip): Not explicitly rated - Chlor - alkali (PVC, Liquid Caustic Soda): PVC ☆☆☆, Liquid Caustic Soda not explicitly rated [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Not explicitly rated Report's Core View - The overall performance of the chemical futures market is complex, with different products showing various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - environment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract has narrow - range fluctuations. Import arrivals increase, coastal MTO device operation declines slightly, and ports are accumulating inventory. The inland - to - coastal arbitrage window closes. Short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] Urea - The futures price drops. Supply remains abundant, agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and compound fertilizer production enterprise operation declines. Upstream inventory transfers to downstream and ports, and there are rumors of new export quota expectations [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. For polyethylene, device maintenance decreases, and downstream demand is weak. For polypropylene, device maintenance intensity weakens, and supply is expected to increase slightly. The overall supply - demand is weak [4] Pure Benzene - Crude oil price decline weakens cost support. Spot prices fall slightly, and ports continue to accumulate inventory. There is an expected seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late period, but pressure in the fourth quarter. Suggest differential trading [5] Styrene - The futures price drops. The cost - end crude oil market has a complex situation, and supply is sufficient while demand is weak [6] Polyester - PX and PTA prices decline due to oil price drops. PX supply - demand improves, but PTA demand weakens. PTA has a repair drive. Ethylene glycol is expected to be bullish in the short - term. Short fiber is bullish, and bottle chip orders are weak [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC spot prices weaken, with new device production and inventory accumulation. Liquid caustic soda prices rise, with cost support and inventory decline [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices drop due to low market expectations. Cost increases, but processing orders are weak. Soda ash is affected by macro - environment and supply pressure [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - From the June data, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, sales recovery was weak with a slightly wider decline, and the decline in new construction and completion narrowed under the low - base effect. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the restoration of the market's internal driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Development Investment - The cumulative development investment completion amount from January to June 2025 was 466.58 billion yuan, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The growth rate in June was - 12.0%, in May it was - 10.7%, in 2024 it was - 12.9%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 10.6% [1]. New Construction Area - The cumulative new construction area of houses from January to June 2025 was 30.364 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 20.0%. The growth rate in June was - 9.4%, in May it was - 19.3%, in 2024 it was - 22.8%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 23.0% [1]. Commercial Housing Sales Area - The cumulative commercial housing sales area from January to June 2025 was 45.851 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The growth rate in June was - 5.5%, in May it was - 3.3%, in 2024 it was - 2.9%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 12.9% [1]. Housing Construction Area - The cumulative housing construction area from January to June 2025 had a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The growth rate in 2024 was - 9.1%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 12.7% [1]. Housing Completion Area - The cumulative housing completion area from January to June 2025 was 22.567 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The growth rate in June was - 1.7%, in May it was - 19.5%, in 2024 it was - 17.3%, and the annual growth rate in 2024 was - 27.7% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]

| | | | 国投期货 Million | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月15日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★★★ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】】 今天郑棉小幅下跌,下游需求偏弱仍是限制价格主要因素。国产棉现货销售基差坚挺;棉花产业链呈现原料更强,下游偏弱的 局面，纯棉纱价格跟随原料上涨，但动能偏弱。下游内地纺企开机继续下行，成品库存继续累积，不过新疆纺企开机仍高。截 至6月底，棉花商业库存为282.98万吨，较5月底减 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the symbol [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆☆, bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] Core Viewpoints - The current market is dominated by "anti - involution", and substantial measures are yet to be implemented. Market optimism has cooled, and there may be short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The short - term trends of iron ore, coke, and coking coal follow the trend of steel products. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand of iron ore is expected to be loose, and its room for continued rebound is limited [3][4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron follow the trend of thread steel, with limited price increases and are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - The thread steel market has a weak and stable apparent demand, a slight decline in production, and a continued slow decline in inventory. The hot - rolled coil demand and production have both declined, and inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. Iron - making water production has slowly declined but remains at a relatively high level. The domestic demand is weak, while exports are relatively high. Market optimism has cooled [2] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month, in line with seasonal patterns. The domestic arrival volume has rebounded to a high level but is lower than last year. Port inventories have continued to decline. Steel mills still have profits and have little motivation to actively reduce production. Iron - making water production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The short - term trend is expected to follow steel products and have limited room for rebound [3] Coke - The coking price increase is expected to be fully implemented this week, with a smaller increase than expected. Coking daily production has continued to decline from the annual high. Overall inventory has hardly changed, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" is limited. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has continued to increase, and the spot auction market has improved. Terminal inventories have increased, and total coking coal inventories have decreased month - on - month. The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" is limited. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - Due to previous continuous production cuts, inventory levels have decreased, but weekly production has started to increase, and on - balance - sheet inventory has begun to rise. Manganese ore inventory has been increasing in the medium - to - long term, and the short - term inventory level is low, with an increased willingness of manganese mines to hold prices. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [7] Silicon Iron - Iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains above 239. The tender inquiry price of a large northern steel mill in July is lower than that in June, and the tender quantity has increased. Export demand remains stable at around 30,000 tons, and the secondary demand is stable at a high level. Supply has continued to decline, and on - balance - sheet inventory has decreased, but production - end inventory has started to accumulate. It is expected to fluctuate [8]

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking" by Guotou Futures [1] Core View - The proportion of long and short positions in commodities has changed little this week. The short positions in the non - ferrous sector have increased, and there are local long signals in the chemical and agricultural product sectors. The cross - sectionally strong sectors are agricultural products and chemicals, while the non - ferrous sector is weak. The overall signal for methanol is neutral, for float glass is long, and for lead is short [3][5][8][9] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Detailed Summaries Commodity Sector Analysis - **Non - ferrous Sector**: Momentum is marginally declining, short positions are increasing,持仓量 is decreasing, and cross - sectional differentiation is narrowing. Zinc and nickel are relatively weak. Gold's time - series momentum has stabilized, but the trading volume of Shanghai silver continues to rise, and intra - sector differentiation may widen [3] - **Black Sector**: The overall position factor is marginally declining, and the term structure differentiation is narrowing [3] - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Cross - sectional momentum is differentiated. Ethylene glycol is cross - sectionally strong, while styrene is weak [3] - **Agricultural Product Sector**: The position of oils and fats has slightly declined [3] Factor Performance - **Last Week's and Current Month's Returns**: For the supply factor, last week's return was - 0.03% and the current month's return was - 0.09%; for the demand factor, last week was 0.00% and the current month was - 0.65%; for the inventory factor, last week was 0.02% and the current month was 1.00%; for the spread factor, last week was 0.00% and the current month was 0.35%; the cumulative return of major categories last week was - 0.03% and the current month was - 0.95% [4] Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.03%, the inventory factor increased by 0.02%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.03%. This week's comprehensive signal is neutral. On the fundamental side, the supply is bearish, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish but weakening, and the spread is bullish [5] - **Float Glass**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 1.47%, the demand factor increased by 1.58%, the inventory factor increased by 1.47%, the spread factor weakened by 0.04%, and the synthetic factor increased by 1.04%. This week's comprehensive signal is long. Supply is neutral, demand is neutral, inventory is bullish, and the spread is neutral - bearish [8] - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.52%, the demand factor weakened by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.56%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.51%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.32%. This week's comprehensive signal remains short. Supply is bearish, demand is bullish, inventory is bearish, and the spread is bearish [9] Factor Intensity and Momentum Indicators - **Factor Intensity**: For different factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and spread, their intensities vary in different commodities and time periods (last week and the current week) [4][8][9] - **Momentum Indicators**: Different sectors (black, non - ferrous, energy and chemical, agricultural products, equity index, and precious metals) have different values for momentum time - series, momentum cross - section, term structure, and position indicators [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It is based on the research reports publicly released by institutions in the current week, and processes and summarizes the long - short views and trading logics of each futures variety. The closing price data is from last Friday, and the weekly change is the change in the closing price of last Friday compared with the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the commodities with significant weekly increases include coke (6.04%), glass (5.85%), and iron ore (4.30%); while those with decreases include copper (-1.63%), corn (-2.00%), and methanol (-1.21%) [3]. - **A - shares**: The CSI 500 rose 1.96%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, and the CSI 300 rose 0.82% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The French CAC40 rose 1.73%, the FTSE 100 rose 1.34%, while the Nasdaq Index fell -0.08%, the S&P 500 fell -0.31%, and the Nikkei 225 fell -0.61% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 2.81%, the 5 - year rose 2.00%, and the 10 - year rose 1.08% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index rose 0.91%, while the US Dollar central parity rate fell -0.08%, and the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate fell -0.74% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views Summary - **Macro - Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish logics include domestic "anti - involution" boosting market confidence, potential passive position - increasing after index breakthrough; bearish logics include weakened upward momentum at high levels and concerns about policy risks [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the loose monetary policy and weak inflation environment; bearish factors are the recovery of risk appetite and short - term cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are strong US diesel demand and a decline in active drilling rigs; bearish logics are potential impacts of US tariff policies on the global economy and high OPEC+ production in June [5]. - **Agricultural Sector** - **Live Pigs**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low slaughter volume and policy regulation; bearish factors are stable sow inventory and weak demand due to hot weather [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are tight mine supply and low LME inventory; bearish logics are expected US copper tariff hikes and weak demand in construction and other industries [6]. - **Chemical Sector** - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 5 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the stabilization of the coal market and low short - term valuations; bearish factors are weakening basis, high production rates, and high inventory levels [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 6 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 0 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are the expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical uncertainties; bearish logics are low energy prices and potential delays in Fed policy shifts [7]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the first price increase by coke enterprises and high iron - water production; bearish factors are the resumption of coal mine production and weak construction demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].