Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures and treasury bond futures are both ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending November 28, stock index futures showed differentiation. IH2512 rose 1.27%, IF2512 rose 2.67%, IC2512 rose 4.29%, and IM2512 rose 4.84%. The driving logic of policy and capital has not changed significantly, overseas macro is relatively stable, but domestic capital has not become more relaxed, and overall risk appetite has recovered [1] - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores for stock index futures are: inflation indicator 8 points, liquidity indicator 9 points, valuation indicator 11 points, and market sentiment indicator 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator is 8 points, the liquidity indicator is 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator is 7 points. The weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of the ending open - interest of IH, IF, IC, and IM are - 2.81%, - 6.24%, - 12.5%, and - 15.52% respectively, and the discount of far - month contracts has widened again [1] - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.51% last week. In the long - term, most economic data in November showed weakening growth, industrial enterprises were weaker than seasonal, and PMI was lower than expected, putting pressure on IF and IC. In the short - term, medium - and high - frequency real estate and consumption are still weak, the RMB has continued to appreciate against the US dollar, and the capital situation remains relatively loose, with a relatively limited short - term increase. In terms of open - interest, risk appetite has recovered compared to last week. IF and IH remain relatively neutral, while IC and IM have increased significantly. The overall comprehensive signal is above neutral. For treasury bond futures, the capital situation remains loose, and the market risk appetite is relatively conducive to the recovery of the bond market, but the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant, the bond market is insensitive to fundamental feedback, the open - interest factor has declined slightly, and institutional year - end allocation behavior has not yet been concentrated, with the comprehensive signal in a neutral oscillation [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy indicators such as the blast furnace operating rate, PTA operating rate, etc. have different weekly changes, and the scores for stock index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 and 0 respectively (on a scale of 0 - 10) [2] Inflation Indicators - Various inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc. have different weekly changes, and the scores for both stock index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [3] Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for stock index futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [4] Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for stock index futures is 10 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [5] Market Sentiment: Stock Index - Stock - index - related market sentiment indicators such as margin trading balances, northbound trading amounts, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for treasury bond futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [6] Market Sentiment: Bond - Bond - related market sentiment indicators such as the 10 - year CDB bond yield, S&P 500 volatility index, etc. have different weekly changes, and the score for treasury bond futures is 7 (on a scale of 0 - 10) [7] Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The open - interest is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [17] Forecast Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, open - interest indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different futures contracts are provided, and the principles for signal synthesis and trading are explained [18] Last Week's Situation - The trading signals for different futures contracts from November 24 - 28, 2025, are presented, and the data source is provided [20] Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and the signals are divided into three types. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21] Market Quotes and Trading Signals - The trading signals of the TF and T main contracts from November 24 - 28, 2025, are provided, and the data source is provided [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock indices and government bonds are ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending November 28, stock index futures showed differentiation. IH2512 rose 1.27%, IF2512 rose 2.67%, IC2512 rose 4.29%, and IM2512 rose 4.84%. The driving logic of policy and capital did not change significantly, overseas macro was relatively stable, domestic capital remained relatively loose, and overall risk appetite recovered [1] - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores showed that for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 9 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 9 points. For government bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 7 points [1] - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.51% last week. In the long - term, most economic data in November showed weakening growth, and IF and IC were under pressure. In the short - term, high - frequency real estate and consumption remained weak, the RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the capital remained relatively loose with a limited short - term increase. Risk appetite recovered compared to last week, with IF and IH remaining neutral and IC and IM rising significantly. The overall comprehensive signal was above neutral. For government bond futures, the capital remained loose, market risk appetite was conducive to bond market repair, but the stock - bond seesaw effect was not significant, and the comprehensive signal was in a neutral oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - Among economic kinetic factors, the blast furnace开工率 decreased by 1.68%, the开工率 of PTA in China decreased by 1.68%, the refining plant开工率 in Shandong increased by 7.92%, the开工率 of automobile tires decreased by 4.98%, and the开工率 of downstream looms in the polyester filament industry in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 5.67%. The stock index futures score was 8, and the government bond futures score was 0 [2] 3.2 Inflation Indicators - The vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index rose 0.73%, the coking coal index rose 0.57%, the price of 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.92%, the South China styrene index rose 1.81%, the CIF price of liquefied natural gas in China remained unchanged, the compound fertilizer index rose 1.30%, and the settlement price of natural rubber rose 1.35%. The stock index futures and government bond futures scores were both 8 [3] 3.3 Liquidity - DR007 decreased by 0.24%, DR001 decreased by 1.17%, GC001 weighted average increased by 5.63%, GC007 weighted average decreased by 2.57%, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 0.68%, SHIBOR 1 - week increased by 0.48%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.76%, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit yield (AAA) for 1 - month remained unchanged. The stock index futures score was 9 [4] 3.4 Index Valuation - The price - earnings ratio (TTM) rose 1.66%, the price - sales ratio (TTM) rose 1.66%, the dividend yield (last 12 months) decreased by 2.15%, and the price - cash - flow ratio (operating cash flow TTM) rose 1.67%. The stock index futures score was 10 [5] 3.5 Market Sentiment: Stock Indices - The margin trading balance rose 0.46%, the short - selling balance rose 5.09%, the net purchase amount of northbound funds was unchanged, the selling amount of northbound funds was unchanged, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume decreased by 26.01%. The government bond futures score was 9 [6] 3.6 Market Sentiment: Bonds - The yield of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose 1.65%, the VIX index of the US S&P 500 decreased by 30.22%, the credit spread (median) of all industrial bonds remained unchanged, and the trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange government bond index rose 33.65%. The government bond futures score was 7 [7] 3.7 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and government bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized considering institutional long and short positions [17] 3.8 Forecast Signals - The short - term model signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were 0.51, 0.51, 0.52, 0.53, 0.53, and 0.52 respectively; the position volume indicators were 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, and 0 respectively; the long - term model signals were 0.52, 0.5, 0.52, 0.51, 0.51, and 0.52 respectively; the comprehensive signals were 0.52, 0.51, 0.55, 0.5, 0.51, and 0.53 respectively [18] 3.9 Last Week's Situation - From November 24 to 28, the signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were mostly 0 [20] 3.10 Government Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental three - factor model uses the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and the signals are classified into three types: '1', '0', and '-1'. The trend regression model filters signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In practice, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a 1:1.8 ratio [21] 3.11 TF and T Main Contract Trading Signals - From November 24 to 28, the N - S model and trend regression model signals for TF and T main contracts were mostly 0, with the N - S model showing a signal of 1 on November 27 [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "★☆☆" rating to the CITIC Five - Style - Growth, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All - A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.87%, - 0.26%, and 1.99% respectively. In the public fund market, equity strategies rebounded in the past week, while medium - and long - term pure - bond strategies declined. The net value of silver futures ETF increased significantly by 5.07%, and the returns of energy and chemical ETFs stabilized and rebounded. Among the CITIC five - styles, all styles rose last Friday, with the growth style leading in terms of returns. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the financial style declined, while that of the consumer style strengthened. The medium - and long - term momentum factor's return rebounded, with a weekly excess return rate of 1.66%. According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style strengthened this week, and the signal currently favors the growth style [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fund Market Review - In the public fund market, equity strategies rebounded in the past week, with the ordinary stock strategy index rising 3.33%. Medium - and long - term pure - bond strategies declined. The net value of silver futures ETF increased by 5.07%, and the returns of energy and chemical ETFs stabilized and rebounded [4]. Equity Market Style - **CITIC Five - Style Performance**: All five styles of CITIC rose last Friday, with the growth style leading in returns. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength of the financial style declined, and that of the consumer style strengthened. In the public fund pool, financial and growth - style funds outperformed their benchmarks on average in the past week. The market's deviation towards cyclical and financial styles increased. The congestion index changed little compared to last week, and the congestion of financial - style funds is currently in the relatively high - percentile range of the past year [4]. - **Neutral Strategy**: As of last week, the basis of stock index futures (futures - spot) fluctuated and weakened. The basis of IC and IM fell below the average of the past three months. Meanwhile, the average premium rate index of the corresponding ETFs of stock indices decreased month - on - month and dropped to the low - percentile range of the past three months [4]. - **Barra Factors**: The return of the medium - and long - term momentum factor rebounded in the past week, with a weekly excess return rate of 1.66%. The leverage and profitability factors weakened slightly. In terms of win - rate, the liquidity factor weakened, and the reversal factor rebounded. The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors continued to increase this week and is currently in the high - percentile range of the past year [4]. - **Style Timing**: According to the latest score of the style timing model, the growth style strengthened this week, and the stable style declined slightly. The current signal favors the growth style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.80%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.19% [4].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月01日 (原油) 周日OPEC+8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年Q1暂停增产。委内瑞拉抗议 美方企图以武力控制其石油。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在波斯湾水域扣押了一艘载走私燃料的外籍油 轮。短期消息面对油价有所提振，外盘油价周一盘初走高1%。中长期基本面库存宽松压力仍存，油 价反弹空间及持续性或有限。 (责金属) 周五市场并未有显著的利多消息,但国际银价大涨超过6%带动贵金属整体强势,体现其在美联储降 息预期增强背景下金融属性和现货偏紧的双重支撑及高波动特点。 铂肥上市伊始国内投资者对铂的 青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于叙,倾向多铂空肥。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 【铜】 上周五伦铜再创高，沪铜盘中增仓跟涨，短线贵金属提供溢价情绪，中长线市场持续看涨来年铜均 价上涨，流动性、绿碳与智算相结合的需求以及矿端低加工费博弈向冶炼环节传导，且美伦价差可 能继续吸引去美库存,共同支撑涨势。短线多单持有,关注资金变动。 (铝) 周五贵金属和铜太幅上行,沪铝跟涨。近期铝锭有所去库,总体李节性表现偏中性,现货维持贴 水， ...

| | | | 11/11/11/2 | 操作评级 | 2025年11月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉突破了前期震荡区间,关注后续走势。棉花现货套保咯有增加,一口价报价低价咯有减少,高价变动不大。虽然今年 新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳,关注春 节前需求能否出现小旺季。市场对于国内新年度的种植有一定的利多预期，目标价格或有所变化。关注郑棉突破后的走势，短 朗上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 50ETF price changed from 3.114 to 3.113, with corresponding daily changes of 0.13%, -0.06%, and 0.03%. The current month IV decreased from 12.36% to 11.87% [1]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 19.50% and 19.00% respectively [1]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price changed from 4.626 to 4.635, with daily changes of 0.63%, -0.09%, and 0.28%. The current month IV decreased from 14.02% to 13.63% [4]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 25.30% and 31.60% respectively [4]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price changed from 4.778 to 4.783, with daily changes of 0.80%, -0.21%, and 0.31%. The current month IV decreased from 14.09% to 13.77% [7]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 28.50% and 32.90% respectively [7]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price changed from 7.065 to 7.135, with daily changes of 1.36%, -0.06%, and 0.99%. The current month IV decreased from 17.97% to 17.29% [16]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 29.70% and 29.40% respectively [16]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price changed from 2.825 to 2.846, with daily changes of 0.18%, -0.28%, and 1.03%. The current month IV decreased from 18.98% to 18.19% [27]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 39.50% and 41.50% respectively [27]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price changed from 3.027 to 3.035, with daily changes of 2.23%, -0.50%, and 0.76%. The current month IV decreased from 26.05% to 25.49% [34]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 50.60% and 60.30% respectively [34]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price changed from 3.370 to 3.370, with daily changes of 1.72%, -0.36%, and 0.36%. The current month IV decreased from 18.41% to 17.75% [43]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 33.80% and 42.90% respectively [43]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price changed from 1.382 to 1.393, with daily changes of 0.95%, -0.22%, and 1.02%. The current month IV decreased from 26.80% to 26.29% [51]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 35.10% and 35.50% respectively [51]. 3.9 Star 50ETF - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the Star 50ETF price changed from 1.340 to 1.350, with daily changes of 1.13%, -0.30%, and 1.05%. The current month IV decreased from 27.18% to 27.09% [56]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 35.90% and 38.30% respectively [56]. 3.10 300 Index - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 300 Index price changed from 4517.626 to 4526.662, with daily changes of 0.61%, -0.05%, and 0.25%. The current month IV decreased from 13.89% to 13.83% [65]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 33.40% and 31.20% respectively [65]. 3.11 1000 Index - From November 26 - 28, 2025, the 1000 Index price changed from 7248.449 to 7334.210, with daily changes of -0.02%, 0.12%, and 1.06%. The current month IV decreased from 18.68% to 17.07% [70]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 14.70% and 23.60% respectively [70]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - From November 26 - November 28, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index price changed from 2971.799 to 2969.617, with daily changes of 0.12%, 0.02%, and -0.09%. The current month IV decreased from 12.13% to 11.89% [75]. - The near - 1 - year and near - 2 - year current month IV quantiles on November 28 were 8.10% and 8.50% respectively [75].

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The copper market has strong support for long - term multi - allocation. The average copper price next year will be supported by liquidity, a mild economic recovery, and the demand from the combination of green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, one can try to buy a small amount of long orders and hold them based on the MA5 moving average [2] - The aluminum market has resilient but unremarkable demand. The industry has limited contradictions recently, and the Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price. Alumina has an oversupply situation and will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [3] - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic zinc market will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. The stainless - steel cost support continues to decline, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [7] - The tin market focuses on the conflict risk in the eastern Congo. The short - term price may reach 315,000 - 320,000 yuan with the cooperation of positions and trading volume [8] - The lithium carbonate market has a significant divergence. The futures price fluctuates sharply at a high level, and risk control should be prioritized [9] - The industrial silicon market's supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated, and it will show an oscillating pattern in the short term [10] - The polysilicon market has insufficient fundamental support. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to decline, and one should track the change of the virtual - to - real ratio [11] Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper increased in position and price. The spot copper rose to 87,400 yuan, and the Shanghai premium expanded to 110 yuan. The London copper should pay attention to the performance at $11,000 in the short - term, and there are strong long - term support factors. The Shanghai copper is likely to rise again. Short - term, one can try to buy a small amount of long orders and hold them based on the MA5 moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China remained stable. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged. The demand has resilience but lacks highlights. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price. Alumina has an oversupply situation and will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - Funds flowed into precious metals, driving up the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc oscillated at a high level, and Shanghai zinc stabilized at the 60 - day moving average. The domestic TC decreased, and the zinc ingot export expectation supported the market. The domestic zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and fell back. The stainless - steel cost support continued to decline. The nickel inventory decreased by 900 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory increased by 700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased in position and price in the afternoon. The market focuses on the conflict risk in the eastern Congo. The short - term price may reach 315,000 - 320,000 yuan with the cooperation of positions and trading volume [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market has significant divergence. The total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 2,170 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 3,450 tons. Risk control should be prioritized [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated, and it will show an oscillating pattern in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed up. The fundamental support is insufficient. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to decline, and one should track the change of the virtual - to - real ratio [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The steel market has seen a slight improvement in sentiment, but weak demand expectations still limit the upside. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be range-bound, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak and volatile price movements due to abundant carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by the expected decline in power and raw material costs, with overall demand showing some resilience [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand and production decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The overall demand is weak, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Demand declined, production continued to increase, and inventory decreased slowly. The pressure still needs to be alleviated [2]. - Overall: Steel mills are in a loss - making state, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high. Domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from the high level. The market sentiment has improved, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are stronger than the same period, domestic arrivals have rebounded to the annual high, and port inventory is in an accumulation trend [3]. - Demand: Steel apparent demand is low, in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. Iron - making is in a seasonal production - cut trend [3]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are loose, but there are short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - Price: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The first round of price cuts is expected to be fully implemented next Monday [4]. - Supply and demand: Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly increased, and inventory has slightly increased. Downstream demand has some resilience, but steel mills have a strong desire to cut prices [4]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling [6]. - Inventory: Total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory has increased slightly [6]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [6]. Silicomanganese - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [7]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory is slowly increasing [7]. - Outlook: The bottom - support expectation has moved down [7]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [8]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, export demand has declined, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand has some resilience [8]. - Outlook: The bottom - support strength will be tested [8]

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