Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which is unexpectedly bullish. The total demand for raw materials is expected to grow in the next two years [20]. - There is a price premium for North American domestic raw materials over overseas raw materials in producing renewable diesel. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The bottom of the US soybean oil price is relatively stable, but there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [20]. - Due to the increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies for domestic and foreign raw materials, North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be used for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is more elastic [21]. - The US is expected to increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Introduction - On June 13, 2025, the US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices. A virtual public hearing will be held on July 8, 2025, and an additional meeting may be held on July 9, 2025 [2]. - The policy aims to provide market certainty for producers, offer lower oil prices for consumers, support the US biofuel industry, and enhance energy security and employment [3]. - The main contents of the policy include setting strong growth targets for major renewable fuels, prioritizing the US by reducing the value of foreign renewable fuels and raw materials, and canceling electricity as a qualified renewable fuel to achieve the goal of canceling the EV mandate [3]. Policy Details - The EPA proposed to set the total RV0 for 2026 at 24.02 billion RINs, an almost 8% increase from 2025, and 24.46 billion RINs for 2027, a nearly 2% increase from the previous year [5]. - The obligated quantities of biomass diesel for 2026 and 2027 are set at 5.61 billion gallons and 5.86 billion gallons respectively, exceeding market expectations [6]. - The proposed policy will increase the production of US biomass diesel, raise the operating rate, and increase the demand for raw materials [6]. Impact on Raw Material Prices and Demand - North American domestic raw materials for renewable diesel have a premium of about 10 cents per pound (about $220 per ton) over overseas raw materials. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The US soybean oil price is more volatile, and there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [10]. - The increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies will lead to the use of North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is higher than that in other industries [11]. - Compared with 2024, the total demand for biomass diesel in 2026 is flat, and it increases in 2027. The global demand for vegetable oil is expected to increase, with North America leading the growth [13][14]. - The US may increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. The USDA expects the 2025/26 soybean crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels (67.76 million tons), a 2.8% increase year - on - year. The domestic soybean crushing capacity has increased, and there is a probability of further increase by 2030. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [18][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a large amount of data on various financial products such as ETFs and indices, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and related price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 2.753, with 5HV at 8.25%, 10HV at 5.68%, 20HV at 5.92%, and the current month's IV at 11.21%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 4.80%, and in the past 2 years was 2.40%. The next month's IV was 12.16%, with an IV percentile of 5.70% in the past 1 year and 11.30% in the past 2 years [1][2]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [1]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 3.990, with 5HV at 9.45%, 10HV at 6.81%, 20HV at 6.89%, and the current month's IV at 0.32%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 0.40%, and in the past 2 years was 0.20%. The next month's IV was 0.36%, with an IV percentile of 0.40% in the past 1 year and 0.20% in the past 2 years [9]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [9]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 4.026, with 5HV at 9.82%, 10HV at 7.08%, 20HV at 7.04%, and the current month's IV at 13.11%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 20.40%, and in the past 2 years was 16.70%. The next month's IV was 12.75%, with an IV percentile of 12.20% in the past 1 year and 10.10% in the past 2 years [15]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [15]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 5.797, with 5HV at 10.82%, 10HV at 9.26%, 20HV at 9.77%, and the current month's IV at 0.00%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 0.40%, and in the past 2 years was 0.20%. The next month's IV was 0.00%, with an IV percentile of 0.40% in the past 1 year and 0.20% in the past 2 years [26]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [26]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 2.319, with 5HV at 12.27%, 10HV at 10.15%, 20HV at 10.73%, and the current month's IV at 14.23%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 0.40%, and in the past 2 years was 14.10%. The next month's IV was 15.64%, with an IV percentile of 1.20% in the past 1 year and 25.80% in the past 2 years [37]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [37]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 2.037, with 5HV at 16.59%, 10HV at 13.76%, 20HV at 14.11%, and the current month's IV at 17.99%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 2.40%, and in the past 2 years was 9.80%. The next month's IV was 19.57%, with an IV percentile of 8.00% in the past 1 year and 23.90% in the past 2 years [49]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [49]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 3.725, with 5HV at 11.72%, 10HV at 9.51%, 20HV at 11.55%. The data for the current month's IV and related IV percentiles showed errors (VALUE!) [59]. - The current month's contract has -1 days until expiration [59]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 1.021, with 5HV at 12.36%, 10HV at 13.16%, 20HV at 12.46%, and the current month's IV at 18.11%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 0.40%, and in the past 2 years was 4.90%. The next month's IV was 20.29%, with an IV percentile of 2.10% in the past 1 year and 17.30% in the past 2 years [68]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [68]. 3.9 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF E Fund - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 0.995, with 5HV at 11.77%, 10HV at 13.04%, 20HV at 12.35%, and the current month's IV at 17.64%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 9.30%, and in the past 2 years was 5.70%. The next month's IV was 19.64%, with an IV percentile of 8.00% in the past 1 year and 17.30% in the past 2 years [78]. - The current month's contract has 7 days until expiration [78]. 3.10 300 Index - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 3873.795, with 5HV at 9.23%, 10HV at 6.91%, 20HV at 7.42%, and the current month's IV at 11.17%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 1.60%, and in the past 2 years was 0.80%. The next month's IV was 13.05%, with an IV percentile of 11.40% in the past 1 year and 5.90% in the past 2 years [88]. - The current month's contract has 4 days until expiration [88]. 3.11 1000 Index - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 6147.460, with 5HV at 13.88%, 10HV at 12.77%, 20HV at 13.82%, and the current month's IV at 15.88%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 0.40%, and in the past 2 years was 19.60%. The next month's IV was 17.74%, with an IV percentile of 0.40% in the past 1 year and 28.40% in the past 2 years [90]. - The current month's contract has 4 days until expiration [90]. 3.12 Shanghai Composite 50 Index - On June 16, 2025, the underlying price was 2685.009, with 5HV at 7.42%, 10HV at 5.31%, 20HV at 6.19%, and the current month's IV at 11.56%. The IV percentile for the current month in the past 1 year was 3.60%, and in the past 2 years was 1.80%. The next month's IV was 43.63%, with an IV percentile of 51.80% in the past 1 year and 75.80% in the past 2 years [100]. - The current month's contract has 4 days until expiration [100].

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【尿素】 周末雨水过后，尿素现货市场走货有所好转。农业采购部分启动,复合肥夏季高氮肥生产进入尾声,生产企业 持续大幅累库。出口虽然有序放开,但法检流程推进较慢,部分货源被锁定，周期内满口库存小幅增长。尿素 供应充足延续,短期受农需启动以及国际尿素供应紧缺提振,行情止跌反弹。 【聚烯烃】 聚烯烃期货主力合约日内上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，油价走高从成本端对市场形成提振。国内LLDPE市场仍处于需 求谈季，下游行业整体需求表现缺乏显著完点。尽管基本面依旧疲弱，但盘面已经充分反映基本面利空，后期 随着农膜订单的积累，基本面有好转预期。聚丙烯方面,PP下游领域淡季特征明显,下游工厂盈利状况不佳, 对涨价后货源接受度不高，现货消化力度依旧偏弱，加之检修有所减少，供应近期小幅增加。不过价格已经处 于低位区间,随着成本端支撑走强,市场情绪仍有所修复。 | Million | ER FRANCE | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月16日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | な ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Index futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 13, the stock index rose first and then fell, with a moderately increasing trading volume compared to the previous week, and the average daily trading volume was around 1.36 trillion yuan. Geopolitical conflicts and trade negotiations are still the main factors influencing the current market pattern [1]. - In terms of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 4 points, the valuation indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 9 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points [1]. - In terms of the term structure, the annualized basis after dividend adjustment of most contracts converged compared to the previous week, and the basis of the IH contract decreased overall and turned into a discount [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy did not change last week. In the long - term, financial data is mixed, with M1 and social financing showing better - than - expected performance, which contributes significantly to IC and IM. M2 and export data are weak, having less impact on index futures. In the short - term, the exchange rate shows low weekly volatility, the influence weight decreases, there is a lack of incremental funds, and the characteristics of stock game are significant [1]. - In terms of positions, the overall market risk preference declined in the second half of the week. The signal strength of IF and IH decreased significantly, but IC and IM still maintained a relatively high level, with the comprehensive signal showing a neutral oscillation. For treasury bond futures, the position factor shows a sign of marginal weakening after the rebound, but the current capital situation has significantly eased. The position reflects that institutions are still cautious about short - end allocation, and in the context of rising market sentiment, T is relatively strong in the cross - section signal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy: The blast furnace开工率 increased by 2.10%, with a current value of 45.12 and a historical quantile of 0.64. The index futures score was 6, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - Inflation indicators: Some prices such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index decreased, while others like the CITIC compound fertilizer index increased. The index futures and treasury bond futures scores for inflation indicators were both 7 [3]. - Liquidity: DR007 decreased by 1.98%, and GC001: weighted average increased by 7.98%. The index futures score for liquidity was 4 [4]. - Index valuation: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) decreased by 0.01%, and the index futures score for valuation was 9 [5]. - Market sentiment: For index futures, the financing balance increased by 0.45%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume increased by 32.92%. The index futures score was 8. For treasury bond futures, the trading volume of the Shanghai Treasury Bond Index increased by 19.07%, and the score was 8 [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital flow, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. Prediction Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) are provided, with specific values as shown in the table. The comprehensive signal strength is synthesized by weighting the signals of three independent models (0 - 1) [18]. Last Week's Situation - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts were all 0 [20]. Recent Earnings Performance - The interval returns in the past 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years were 0.42%, 1.45%, 3.48%, 8.35%, and 25.16% respectively, and the corresponding maximum drawdowns were 0, 0.07%, 0.51%, 0.59%, and 3.27% [22]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, and the signals are divided into three types: '1', '0', and '- 1'. In actual operation, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [23]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - For TF and T main contracts from June 9 to June 13, 2025, the N - S model signals and trend regression model signals are provided in the table [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Financial, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [3]. Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the returns of equity and bond strategies showed slight differentiation in the past week. The energy and chemical ETF had a significant net value increase, while the non-ferrous metal ETF had a slight decline. The financial and cyclical styles of the CITIC Five-Style recorded positive returns, and the style timing model signals a preference for the financial style this week [3]. - Among the Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, and the factor cross-sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week. The style timing strategy had a return of 0.44% last week, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the weekly returns of the Tonglian All-A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.41%, 0.17%, and 2.14% respectively [3]. - In the public fund market, equity strategies showed mixed performance, with index enhancement strategies slightly回调 and market neutral strategies under slight pressure. Bond strategies saw better performance in medium - and long - term pure bonds, and the convertible bond index weakened slightly. Commodity strategies had significant increases in the energy and chemical ETF and the soybean meal ETF [3]. CITIC Style Index - Last Friday, the returns of the CITIC Five-Style index were differentiated, with the financial and cyclical styles recording positive returns. The style rotation chart showed a slight decline in the consumer and stable styles in terms of relative strength, and the cyclical style strengthened marginally in terms of indicator momentum [3]. - Only growth-style funds outperformed the index in the public fund pool in the past week, with an excess return of 0.15%. Some financial-style funds shifted towards consumer and cyclical styles [3]. Barra Factors - In the past week, the residual volatility factor had a weekly excess return of 0.82%. The scale factor's excess return continued to compress, and the leverage and growth factors' returns strengthened slightly. The medium - and long - term momentum and growth factors had better performance in terms of win - rate [3]. - The factor cross - sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week and is currently in the medium - to low - percentile range of history [3]. Style Timing Model - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded this week, while the consumer and cyclical styles declined, and the current signal favors the financial style. The style timing strategy's return last week was 0.44%, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。螺纹表需环比继续下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求、产量均小幅回落，库存继续累积。铁 水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从1-5月数据看，基建回暖缺乏持续性，制造业投资增速继续 放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，内需整体依然疲弱。市场 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，从目前中美谈判情况来看,虽然表态比较积极,但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。棉花观货成交一 般,贸易商采购比较积极、基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱价格跟随原料价格有所上涨，但需求表现仍然一般。棉花现货价格坚挺,优 质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期,截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ★★☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows complex trends affected by multiple factors, including policies, weather, geopolitics, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different characteristics and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For most products, weather is a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term, especially from June to August [2][3] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade still exist, and the market is currently treated as volatile [3] Summary by Product Beans 1 - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate strongly. Policy trading volume is low, and warehouse receipts decrease year - on - year. Short - term weather in Northeast China is beneficial to crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive, which supports CBOT soybean prices. In the medium term, weather will drive price fluctuations both overseas and domestically [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Israel - Iran war and the US EPA policy drive up US soybean and soybean meal prices. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply is loose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The market is currently volatile, and attention should be paid to the oil end and future weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - In China, oil is strong and meal is weak, and the oil - meal ratio rises significantly. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive for the long - term, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Geopolitics, biodiesel policies, and产区 weather are the main factors affecting rapeseed futures prices. Currently, multiple factors are positive, and a bullish strategy is maintained [6] Corn - The USDA June corn report is slightly positive. Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures first rose and then eased. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rebound slightly. In the short term, there is downward pressure on prices, but in the medium term, policy support may provide price support [8] Eggs - Egg futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. Spot prices and near - term futures are rebounding. However, if the price rebounds too quickly, there is a risk of price fluctuations [9]