Report Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. With uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, the international gold price is approaching its historical high, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level [1] - On the first day of the listing of palladium options, market trading was relatively dull. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds clearly returned to rationality. There are signs of a peace negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Palladium has limited consumption growth prospects, while platinum has a supply contraction in South Africa, a wide range of end - consumption fields, and a supply - demand gap this year. It is advisable to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [2] - There are ongoing discussions about the peace plan between Ukraine and the US. Different stances are shown by both sides. The European Central Bank's outlook remains unclear, and there is an opinion that the interest rate cut cycle has ended. The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] Specific Content Summaries Precious Metals Market - Overnight, precious metals were in a strong sideways trend. The international gold price is approaching its historical high, and uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects persist [1] - On the first day of palladium option listing, market trading was dull with an implied volatility of around 30% for at - the - money options. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds became more rational. Platinum is stronger than palladium, and it is advisable to buy on dips and conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [2] Geopolitical Situation - Ukrainian and US delegations will continue work on the peace plan this weekend. Germany believes Ukraine needs strong armed forces and security guarantees even after a peace agreement. Russia has expressed its stances on issues such as US missile deployment and Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that the outlook is still unclear, and there is a view that the interest rate cut cycle has ended [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.1%. By next January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, maintaining the rate is 9.6%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemical products, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as their year - to - date price changes [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 953.92 with a weekly increase of 2.91%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.13% (down 17.26%); Silver closed at 12,727.00 with a weekly increase of 8.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 34.29% (down 3.88%) [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at 87,430.00 with a 2.07% weekly increase; Nickel at 117,080.00 with a 2.66% increase; Aluminum at 21,610.00 with a 1.27% increase, etc [2] - **Black Metals**: Coke closed at 1,574.50 with a 2.48% weekly decrease; Coking coal at 1,067.00 with a 3.26% decrease; Iron ore at 794.00 with a 1.08% increase [2] - **Energy and Chemical Products**: Crude oil closed at 453.90 with a 1.45% weekly increase; Methanol at 2,135.00 with a 6.54% increase; LU at 3,038.00 with a 1.36% decrease [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Corn closed at 2,244.00 with a 2.23% weekly increase; Cotton at 13,725.00 with a 1.97% increase; Sugar at 5,400.00 with a 0.88% increase [2] - **Livestock Products**: Eggs closed at 3,293.00 with a 3.42% weekly increase; Hogs at 11,465.00 with a 1.01% increase [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at 6,974.20 with a 3.02% weekly increase; IF at 4,505.80 with a 1.75% increase; T at 107.94 with a 0.28% decrease [3] 2. Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had the highest year - to - date increase of 70.37%, followed by gold at 54.46%, while some products like 20 - day rubber had a year - to - date decrease of 24.80% [13] 3. Other Observations - LPG, gold, rapeseed, tin, and zinc had significant increases in weekly average open interest [15][17] - Silver, gold, copper, tin, and corn attracted more capital attention as indicated by the change in weekly settled funds [16]

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 是一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 五米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | なな☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 国产大豆主力合约显示盘面在主动进行城仓，价格震荡，目前现货市场的报价偏稳定。今年新作国产豆市场的主基调的优质优 价，市场对优质大豆给予偏强的价格预期。国产大豆和进口大豆价差在进行横盘反复。进口大豆方面表观为震荡，短期仍需要 关注美国大豆出口情况，中期关注南美大豆产区天气表现。短期继续关注国产大豆现货市场的表现 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The cotton market has support from low commercial inventories and fast sales progress, but short - term upward space is still cautiously viewed. The sugar market is expected to remain weak. The apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets have different supply and demand and inventory situations, with opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. The pulp market is in a situation of high inventory and weak demand. The timber market has low - inventory support [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has broken through the previous trading range. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high, and sales progress is fast, providing strong support to the market. The market has a certain bullish expectation for the new - year planting in China. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable, with insufficient new orders. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation is to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. The market's trading focus is shifting to the next season's output estimate. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. In the spot market, transactions in Shandong are mainly for small and medium - sized fruits, and prices in the northwest are stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. The de - stocking situation will be the main trading point in the future [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - rubber NR continued to rise slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price fluctuated. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan产区 in China has entered the non - production period. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has dropped significantly. The demand performance is average, natural rubber inventories are increasing, synthetic rubber inventories are starting to decrease, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures rose slightly. As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 217.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed significantly. The operation is to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price is fluctuating, and the spot price is stable. The external market price is still high, and domestic supply is expected to remain low. Port outbound volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and low inventory supports the price. The operation is to wait and see [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market shows mixed trends across various commodities, with geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations influencing prices. Each commodity has its own unique supply - demand situation and price - influencing factors, and the overall market lacks a unified trend [2][4][21] - For financial products such as stocks and bonds, geopolitical and macro - economic factors also play important roles, and short - term caution is recommended [48][49] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Night - time international oil prices rose slightly. Market expectations for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict are still wavering. OPEC may maintain its production policy, and the increasing expectation of a December Fed rate cut boosts oil prices [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market showed a differentiated performance overnight. High - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly with the cost of crude oil, while low - sulfur fuel oil was weak. In the future, the overall contradiction is limited, with high - sulfur fuel oil affected by geopolitical risks and low - sulfur fuel oil having sufficient supply [22] - **Asphalt**: The commercial inventory of asphalt is decreasing faster. The December production plan is lower year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand will decline seasonally, and the market is expected to be loose at the end of the year, putting pressure on prices [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals showed a volatile performance. The uncertainty of interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects led to high - level oscillations. On the first day of the listing of platinum futures, the price fluctuated sharply, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The average copper price this year was strong. Next year, the growth rate gap between supply and demand may narrow, and the price increase will be supported by factors such as liquidity and demand for green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, a small amount of chasing up can be attempted [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price will mainly oscillate [5] - **Zinc**: Overseas funds have a strong influence. The domestic ore supply is tightening, and the bottom support is strong, but the consumption outlook is under pressure. The short - term price will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the decline of the external market has slowed down. The domestic supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price will oscillate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated, and the market sentiment was cold. The cost support of stainless steel continued to decline, and the price is recommended to be shorted on rebounds [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin turned down. Shanghai tin broke through 300,000 yuan and then adjusted. Pay attention to the inventory changes this week. It is recommended to short on rallies and hedge risks with call options [11] - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The production is at a relatively high level, the inventory is slowly increasing, and the bottom support is expected to move down [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has an increasing expectation of coal mine supply guarantee. The demand has resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to rise, and the spot market rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has increased in the short term, but the supply - demand surplus pattern is expected to continue [24] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term can consider unilateral long or positive spread trading, but the high inventory in ports may suppress the price increase [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The US gasoline crack spread has weakened. The domestic device load has been slightly adjusted down, and the price will oscillate [26] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The supply - demand structure has been slightly improved, the profit has been repaired, and the price will continue to oscillate [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene in Shandong is slightly tight, and the price has risen, but the cost pressure on downstream products may limit the increase. The supply of polyethylene is stable, and the demand is weakening [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating. The export situation may improve, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Caustic soda is also oscillating, with high inventory and weak demand [29] - **PX & PTA**: The short - term supply - demand of PX is weakening, but the medium - term is expected to be strong. PTA is driven by cost, and the processing margin is expected to be repaired [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output has decreased, and the supply has improved marginally, but the medium - term is still weak [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - grade chip demand is weakening, and the cost is the main driving factor [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains & Oilseeds**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the supply is loose. Pay attention to the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement and South American weather [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The overseas supply - demand of palm oil is weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. Soybean oil is affected by the price of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American weather [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the customs clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The external market has a short - term boost to rapeseed meal, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [38] - **Corn**: The north port corn price is firm, and the supply and transportation of northeast corn are a concern. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the northeast [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Hogs**: The number of fertile sows has decreased, and the industry is reducing production capacity. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term may form a double - bottom pattern [41] - **Eggs**: The market is trading on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The long - term supply pressure is expected to ease, and the fundamentals are expected to improve [42] - **Cash Crops**: - **Cotton**: US cotton has rebounded. The domestic cotton cost provides support, and the sales progress is fast. The cotton yarn market is weak, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient. The expected sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is relatively good, and attention should be paid to the production situation [44] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. The short - term price is strong, but the long - term may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the de - stocking situation [45] - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The low inventory provides support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price has continued to fall. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, the supply is loose, and the demand is weak. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) shows a differentiated trend. The far - month contract is under pressure from the resumption of navigation expectations, and the near - month contract is dragged down by the weak spot market. Consider the reverse spread strategy for near - month contracts [21] - **Financial Products**: - **Stock Index**: The stock market closed down, and the futures index also fell. Geopolitical and macro - economic factors have an impact. A wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is trading lightly. The price will oscillate weakly in the range, and cautious operation is recommended [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - No clear core views are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides detailed data on the price, price change, implied volatility (IV), and IV quantiles of various ETFs and indices over specific periods, including 50ETF, Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, Shanghai CSI 500ETF, Shenzhen CSI 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF, Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 50ETF price was 3.110, 3.114, and 3.112 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.52%, 0.13%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 11.24%, 12.36%, and 12.02%, and the next month IV was 12.76%, N/A, and 12.87%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 2.80% - 3.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 12.20% - 16.00% [1]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.38 [7]. 3.2 Shanghai 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 300ETF price was 4.597, 4.626, and 4.622 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.88%, 0.63%, and -0.09%. The current month IV was 14.87%, 14.02%, and 13.68%, and the next month IV was 14.47%, N/A, and 14.54%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 22.40% - 44.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 29.50% - 34.80% [8]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.50 [10]. 3.3 Shenzhen 300ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 300ETF price was 4.740, 4.778, and 4.768 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.64%, 0.80%, and -0.21%. The current month IV was 16.50%, 14.09%, and 13.88%, and the next month IV was 14.91%, N/A, and 14.59%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 26.50% - 63.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.60% - 39.10% [11]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 111.13 [17]. 3.4 Shanghai CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai CSI 500ETF price was 7.054, 7.065, and 7.050 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.91%, 1.36%, and -0.06%. The current month IV was 20.90%, 17.97%, and 17.67%, and the next month IV was 18.55%, N/A, and 18.53%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 27.80% - 61.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 30.80% - 36.30% [20]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 113.37 [25]. 3.5 Shenzhen CSI 500ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen CSI 500ETF price was 2.820, 2.825, and 2.817 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.18%, 0.18%, and -0.28%. The current month IV was 20.52%, 18.98%, and 18.52%, and the next month IV was 19.26%, N/A, and 18.99%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 59.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 42.90% [29]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 110.26 [35]. 3.6 ChiNext ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the ChiNext ETF price was 2.961, 3.027, and 3.012 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.82%, 2.23%, and -0.50%. The current month IV was 26.96%, 26.05%, and 26.15%, and the next month IV was 26.08%, N/A, and 26.69%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 50.60% - 63.10%, and the next month IV quantiles were 45.10% - 63.40% [36]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.55 [42]. 3.7 Shenzhen 100ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shenzhen 100ETF price was 3.313, 3.370, and 3.358 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.35%, 1.72%, and -0.36%. The current month IV was 23.34%, 18.41%, and 17.90%, and the next month IV was 19.17%, N/A, and 18.51%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 29.70% - 74.80%, and the next month IV quantiles were 33.80% - 53.00% [46]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 108.04 [49]. 3.8 Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF price was 1.369, 1.382, and 1.379 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.66%, 0.95%, and -0.22%. The current month IV was 34.51%, 26.80%, and 27.06%, and the next month IV was 27.59%, N/A, and 27.16%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 34.20% - 73.00%, and the next month IV quantiles were 35.10% - 54.90% [55]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 97.96 [57]. 3.9 Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF price was 1.325, 1.340, and 1.336 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.61%, 1.13%, and -0.30%. The current month IV was 28.18%, 27.18%, and 27.64%, and the next month IV was 28.36%, N/A, and 28.44%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 35.90% - 58.30%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.00% - 58.10% [60]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 101.92 [64]. 3.10 300 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 300 Index price was 4490.405, 4517.626, and 4515.403 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.95%, 0.61%, and -0.05%. The current month IV was 14.92%, 13.89%, and 14.12%, and the next month IV was 15.81%, 15.02%, and 14.81%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 33.40% - 43.70%, and the next month IV quantiles were 27.70% - 44.50% [70]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 105.31 [74]. 3.11 1000 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the 1000 Index price was 7249.947, 7248.449, and 7257.454 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 1.31%, -0.02%, and 0.12%. The current month IV was 19.12%, 18.68%, and 17.88%, and the next month IV was 19.92%, 19.30%, and 19.00%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 17.30% - 26.50%, and the next month IV quantiles were 14.70% - 25.30% [75]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 118.11 [80]. 3.12 Shanghai 50 Index - **Price and Volatility Data**: From November 25 - 27, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index price was 2968.202, 2971.799, and 2972.265 respectively, with corresponding price changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, and 0.02%. The current month IV was 13.18%, 12.13%, and 12.25%, and the next month IV was 48.04%, 48.30%, and 47.22%. The current month IV quantiles in the past 1 - 2 years were 8.10% - 19.40%, and the next month IV quantiles were 40.80% - 68.00% [86]. - **Skew Index**: The skew index of the main contract month on November 27, 2025, was 109.32 [93].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Positive (Bullish) - Propylene, Plastic, Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] Negative (Bearish) - Pure Benzene, Styrene, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Bottle Chips, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fibers: ★☆☆ [1] Neutral - Glass, Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The two olefin futures contracts continued to consolidate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Polyolefin futures contracts remained in a bearish pattern [2]. - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern, and styrene will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. - PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA will follow cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material price fluctuations, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate [5]. - PVC and caustic soda are expected to run in a low - level range, with PVC potentially showing a stop - falling and stabilizing trend [6]. - Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7]. Summary by Industry Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices increased due to tight supply, but downstream cost pressure may limit upward space. Plastic and polypropylene futures remained bearish, with stable domestic supply and weak demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene may enter a volatile pattern due to factors such as weak downstream demand and high import expectations. Styrene's supply - demand structure improved slightly, with profits repaired, and will likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic, and its processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has limited medium - term rebound space. Short fibers are subject to raw material prices, and bottle chips are cost - driven [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with short - term long - side or positive - spread strategies advisable, but high inventory may suppress the upward space. Urea prices may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC may run in a low - level range, with a possible stop - falling and stabilizing trend due to factors such as improved export and cost support. Caustic soda is weakly operating due to high supply and low demand [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in a long - term supply - surplus situation, and glass is expected to fluctuate strongly. A long - glass and short - soda - ash strategy can be considered [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hexanediol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market shows a weak trend, with acrylene price rising but facing constraints, and plastic and polypropylene in a bearish pattern [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market is in an oscillatory state, with pure benzene likely to oscillate and styrene maintaining a low - level range [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with PX expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA following cost - driven logic, and other products having their own supply - demand characteristics [4]. - The coal - chemical market has methanol in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and urea may return to a stalemate after a short - term rise [5]. - The chlor - alkali market has PVC and caustic soda in an oscillatory state, with PVC likely to operate in a low - level range and caustic soda running weakly [6]. - The soda ash - glass market has soda ash in an oversupply situation in the long - term and glass expected to oscillate strongly, and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefin - Polyolefin - Acrylene futures fluctuate weakly around the 5 - day moving average. Supply in Shandong is tight, pushing up prices, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upside [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures are in a bearish pattern. Polyethylene has stable domestic supply and weakening demand, while polypropylene downstream has low inventory - building willingness [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices are under pressure due to weakening gasoline crack spreads, high arrival expectations, and falling demand, but may oscillate due to future device maintenance [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply - demand structure improves slightly, and profit is repaired, but the price may continue to oscillate [3]. Polyester - PX short - term supply - demand weakens, but is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [4]. - Hexanediol supply improves marginally, with limited medium - term rebound space. Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and bottle chip demand fades [4]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol has a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are strong, but high imports and potential MTO shutdowns may limit the upside [5]. - Urea prices rise in the short - term due to concentrated demand release, but may return to a stalemate as the demand boost is not sustainable [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillates. Export may improve, and prices may stop falling, but high inventory pressure remains [6]. - Caustic soda oscillates. High inventory, poor demand, and potential alumina production cuts lead to a weak trend [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillates. Inventory decreases, but there is an oversupply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to upstream cost fluctuations [7]. - Glass oscillates strongly. Cold - repair may compress capacity, and cost support may lift prices [7].

Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The domestic soybean market features high - quality products commanding high prices, with the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the US soybean export situation in the short - term and the South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term [2]. - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the new China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes [3]. - The overseas supply - demand situation of palm oil is still weak, but the marginal negative factors have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. Pay attention to the signing of the China - US trade agreement, the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. - The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg market trades on the expectation of a decline in future inventory. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9]. Summary by Category Douyi - The domestic soybean futures contract is actively reducing positions, with price oscillations and stable spot market quotations. The new - crop domestic soybean market adheres to the principle of high - quality products commanding high prices. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Monitor the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The US soybean market is closed for Thanksgiving. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the crush volume has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. Wait for the signing of the China - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation, and pay attention to South American weather changes. Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The high - frequency data of the Malaysian palm oil export market is still poor, and the inventory in the Indonesian market increased slightly in September. The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The soybean oil market shows a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. Pay attention to the US soybean price, export situation in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures show a pattern of meal rising and oil falling. The focus is on the clearance and crushing of Australian rapeseeds. The buying of ships is expected in the future. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards the rapeseed sector [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating strongly. The spot price of corn in the northern ports is firm and rising, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the willingness to replenish inventory has increased. Wait for the signing of the China - US trade agreement, and pay attention to the selling progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows decreased in October 2025. The pig industry's capacity reduction continues. The pig price is weakly adjusted. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced positions, and the prices of the January contract and the distant - month July/August contracts have risen significantly. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to ease [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - Overnight, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, reaching the lowest level since the week of April 12, 2025. The economy shows resilience, with gold fluctuating and silver relatively strong. Russia has received the latest version of the US - Ukraine peace plan, but it's too early to say an agreement is imminent. Due to uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, precious metals are in high - level oscillations waiting for a directional breakthrough [1]. - On the first day of the platinum - palladium futures listing, speculative funds pushed up the market in the short term. Compared with the spot price, platinum - palladium futures were significantly overvalued, and the domestic platinum - palladium futures had a lower cost - effectiveness for further long positions. As funds returned to rationality, the market rose and then fell, with sharp intraday fluctuations. On Friday, platinum - palladium options will be listed, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility under high - volatility conditions [2]. Summary by Related Topics Peace Talks Situation - US: Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the US - proposed peace plan was said to borrow from Russian documents; an alleged leaked conversation showed the US Middle - East envoy's suggestion to Russia; US Secretary of State Rubio told European allies that the US hopes to reach a peace agreement before providing security guarantees to Ukraine [3]. - Ukraine: Denied in principle agreeing to the US peace plan [3]. - Europe: EU officials called for continued pressure on Russia, submitted legal texts on using frozen Russian assets, and opposed restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces; German Defense Minister said Ukraine should not be forced to cede territory unilaterally [3]. - Russia: Representatives had meetings in Abu Dhabi; Russia received the latest version of the US peace plan; it's too early to conclude a peace agreement; Russia - US relations are in the early stage of normalization, and Russia won't make concessions on key issues [3]. US - Japan Relations - Trump criticized Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae during a call, asking her not to provoke China on the Taiwan Strait issue. Japanese officials found this information "worrisome". Trump asked Kaochi to soften her tone but did not pressure her to withdraw her remarks [4].