1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report's impact on the cotton industry is generally neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report made minor adjustments to the supply - demand data of major cotton - producing countries, with a neutral overall influence [1] - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply remains relatively loose, and in the medium - short term, U.S. cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Supply - Demand Data Adjustments in the 2025/26 Season - **Production**: Global production was下调 by 64,000 tons. U.S. production increased by 34,000 tons to 3.107 million tons, and the rest of the major producers remained unchanged. The U.S. cotton harvest area was unchanged, but the yield per unit area increased from 919 pounds per acre in November to 929 pounds per acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption decreased by 60,000 tons, with a 22,000 - ton decrease in Brazil's consumption, and the rest of the major consumers remained stable [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports decreased by 59,000 tons month - on - month, with a 21,000 - ton decrease in Vietnam's imports and a 22,000 - ton decrease in Bangladesh's imports. China's imports were unchanged [1] - **Exports**: Global exports decreased by 56,000 tons, and the main exporting countries remained unchanged [1] - **End - of - Season Inventory**: Global end - of - season inventory increased slightly by 9,000 tons month - on - month, with a 1,000 - ton decrease in China's inventory, a 44,000 - ton increase in the U.S. inventory, and a 45,000 - ton increase in Brazil's inventory [2] 3.2 Data in the Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: The total global production in 2025/26 (December) was 24.894 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Consumption**: The total global consumption in 2025/26 (December) was 25.894 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Imports**: The total global imports in 2025/26 (December) were 9.59 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Exports**: The total global exports in 2025/26 (December) were 9.231 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **End - of - Season Inventory**: The total global end - of - season inventory in 2025/26 (December) was 16.541 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to the previous month [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight, the number of job openings in the US in October increased to 7.67 million, higher than the market expectation of 7.15 million, reaching the highest level in five months, and employment data continued to be mixed [1] - Silver hit a new all - time high, reflecting the resonance of financial attributes and tight spot supply. The gold - silver ratio continued to decline. Before gold breaks through the previous high resistance, it is not advisable to chase the rise of precious metals as a whole [1] - The market is focused on the Fed meeting early tomorrow morning. The implied probability of a rate cut in interest rate futures remains above 80%. Attention should be paid to Powell's statement [1] 3. Other Key Information - Trump may lower tariffs on some over - priced goods and said that an immediate rate cut is the "touchstone" for selecting a new Fed chairman [2] - Trump launched the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading. Officials also proposed the possibility of Hassett shortening his term [2] - Hassett believes that the Fed has sufficient room for significant rate cuts and will make interest rate decisions based on his judgment [2] - Zelensky refused to "cede territory" and will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th. He first relented and was willing to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market shows different trends and characteristics. Some metals are affected by factors such as Fed meetings, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, and investors need to make decisions based on specific metal fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt fluctuated, with spot copper reported at 91,700 yuan, and Shanghai copper premium shrank to 30 yuan. Hold a small number of long positions and pay attention to Powell's speech tendency after the Fed rate cut is implemented [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Silver hit a new high, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The medium - term upward - oscillating trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term upside space is limited. The price of Baotai ADC12 increased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. The spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum may narrow at the end of the year. Alumina supply is in surplus, and it will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [2] Zinc - Domestic and foreign zinc concentrate TC continued to decline. In December, domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease by about 28,000 tons. SMM zinc social inventory dropped to 136,000 tons. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the price is supported. The upward space is limited by the traditional consumption off - season, with resistance at 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel price rebounded and then pulled back, and market trading was light. The pessimism in the stainless - steel market persists. Although there were production cut news, the actual reduction in November was insufficient. Nickel inventory increased, and it is more reasonable to short at high levels [5] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions significantly, and the closing gain expanded. There is a safety risk warning in the eastern Congo (Kinshasa). The short - term price fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to hold a short - call option on the 2601 contract with an exercise price of 315,000 yuan [6] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded strongly, and market trading recovered. The price is supported after the correction. The total market inventory decreased, and the mine - end quotation is strong. The futures price fluctuates at a high level, and the fundamentals are strong [7] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon continued to decline after breaking through the previous low. The fundamentals are weak, with reduced demand and difficult inventory reduction. The market is focused on the 8,000 yuan/ton level [8] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures fluctuated and pulled back. After the establishment of the polysilicon consortium, the details of the purchase and storage are not clear. The industry fundamentals are still weak, but the short - term upward drive exists, and the effectiveness of breaking through the upper limit needs policy verification [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: なな女 - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ★☆☆ - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ - Plastic: ★☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Ethylene Glycol: なな女 - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends in various products. Some products are under downward pressure, while some have certain support factors. The market is affected by supply, demand, inventory, and raw material price fluctuations. [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures declined due to increased supply and weakened downstream buying sentiment, but inventory control provided some support [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures fell. Polyethylene had weak spot prices due to sufficient supply and low downstream demand. Polypropylene faced increased production and limited demand, resulting in an imbalanced supply - demand situation [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures had low - level fluctuations, with falling spot prices and high port inventory, but future supply - demand pressure may ease. Consider long - short spreads on dips in the medium term [3]. - Styrene futures declined due to falling crude oil prices, weak pure benzene fundamentals, and expected increased supply [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA continued to fall due to lower oil prices. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover [5]. - Ethylene glycol had a slight rebound but still faced supply pressure, with long - term pressure from planned new production [5]. - Short fiber's load was high, with a slight inventory increase. Its long - term supply - demand pattern is good. Bottle chip demand weakened, with a weak processing margin and over - capacity pressure [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices fell, while the spot market was relatively stable. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to supply - demand factors [6]. - Urea futures were firm in a range. Although there was inventory reduction, high production and weakening market sentiment may lead to continued range - bound trading [6]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to decline due to weak demand and high inventory. It is expected to operate in a low - level range [7]. - Caustic soda was at a low level, with high inventory, increased production, and weak demand, leading to profit compression [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash fell below 1100 yuan due to cost and supply pressure, with a high - inventory situation. It is in a long - term supply - surplus pattern [8]. - Glass continued to decline. Although there was inventory reduction, recent sales weakened, and long - term cold - repair may be forced by low profits [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bearish view, with a driving force for the price to decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a rebound in the trading floor today. However, the overall domestic demand remains weak, and the future trend depends on the actual implementation of policies. The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term. The coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a weak and volatile price trend. The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are in a state of shock, and their bottom - support strength needs to be observed [1][2] 3. Summary of Each Commodity Steel - The trading floor rebounds today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreases month - on - month, production drops significantly, and inventory continues to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decline, inventory decreases slowly, and the pressure remains to be alleviated. Iron - water production continues to decline. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high in the later stage. The domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high in November. Favorable news in the real - estate sector improves market sentiment, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor rises today. The global shipment increases month - on - month, much stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume decreases month - on - month, slightly lower than the same period last year, and port inventory continues to accumulate. Terminal demand is low in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are loose, with a short - term liquidity disturbance for some ore types and a downward pressure on prices in the medium - and long - term [2] Coke - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The market still expects a second - round price cut for coke. Coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases. Coke inventory slightly decreases, and downstream buyers purchase on a small scale as needed. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [3] Coking Coal - The price is in a weak and volatile state during the day. The production of coking coal mines slightly decreases, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices mainly decline. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and production - end inventory slightly increases. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the price is likely to be weak and volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuates during the day. Driven by the rebound of the trading floor, the spot price of manganese ore rises. Comilog's quotation slightly increases month - on - month, and the reported volume decreases month - on - month. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory. Iron - water production decreases seasonally. Silicon manganese production slightly decreases, and inventory slowly accumulates. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [6] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuates during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increases, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production rebounds to a high - level range. Export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and the secondary demand marginally increases. Supply decreases, inventory slightly decreases, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7]

今天郑棉小幅上涨，最近几个交易日走势偏震荡,棉花现货主流销售基差总体持稳。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较 大. 但商业库存并不高. 销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡季,但需求总体持稳、关注春 节前需求能否出现小旺季。郑棉突破后的走势，短期上涨空间仍偏谨慎。截至11月底,全国棉花商业库存为 468.36万吨，环比增加175.3万吨，同比增加1万吨。截至12月4号，国内棉花累积加工量为579.4万吨。纺企对 于原料需求仍存韧性,纺企成品库存不高,下游纺企现金流尚可。近期郑棉表现震荡偏强,产业可以关注套保 机会,操作上暂时观望。 (白糖) | 《八 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月10日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 10, 2025, silver futures and spot prices hit new historical highs, with domestic silver reaching 14,300 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver breaking through the $60 per ounce mark. Meanwhile, gold prices remained stable at 950 yuan per gram. The price of silver showed an independent rally, with its price driver shifting from following gold prices in the first half of the year to the gold-silver ratio in the second half. The gold-silver ratio dropped from over 100 in April to below 70, indicating that silver outperformed gold by over 30% during the same period [1]. - The gold-silver ratio's theme this year is "Taco." Whenever the market perceives an improvement in risk appetite, a tendency towards looser liquidity, and a mitigation of liquidity shocks caused by unexpected tariffs and tight US Treasuries, silver strengthens. Historically, in scenarios where market risk appetite is strong, the economic outlook is positive, liquidity expands, and inflationary tendencies are high, silver performs better than gold, and the gold-silver ratio declines [2]. - In the short to medium term, gold has started to be regulated. In late October, China issued a notice canceling the policy of deducting input VAT on gold, tightening the flow of private gold. As gold has strong political attributes and is subject to price controls, while silver's market participants are more market-oriented, silver has begun to express its own logic. A significant amount of silver inventory has been locked in due to the silver bull market, leading to a shortage of physical silver liquidity globally. The COMEX silver inventory has increased by over 50% this year. Market participants are worried about potential tariffs or logistics disruptions in the US, so they have moved silver into the US in advance, causing shortages in London. In September, there was a short squeeze in the London silver market, and the high premium attracted silver from the US and China to Europe. At the end of the year, there were also signs of shortages in the Chinese futures market. Historically, silver rallies driven by the gold-silver ratio usually last about a year. The report believes that the gold-silver ratio will eventually fall below 50, indicating significant upside potential for silver prices [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On December 10, 2025, silver futures and spot prices reached new highs, while gold prices remained stable. The price driver of silver shifted from following gold prices to the gold-silver ratio, and the gold-silver ratio dropped from over 100 in April to below 70, with silver outperforming gold by over 30% [1]. Gold-Silver Ratio Logic - The gold-silver ratio's theme this year is "Taco." When the market perceives improved risk appetite, looser liquidity, and reduced liquidity shocks, silver strengthens. Historically, in favorable economic scenarios, silver outperforms gold, and the gold-silver ratio declines [2]. Short to Medium-Term Changes - Gold has started to be regulated, while silver's market participants are more market-oriented, allowing silver to express its own logic. A large amount of silver inventory has been locked in, leading to a global shortage of physical silver liquidity. The COMEX silver inventory has increased by over 50% this year. Market concerns have led to inventory flows, causing shortages in London and signs of shortages in the Chinese futures market. Historically, silver rallies driven by the gold-silver ratio usually last about a year, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to fall below 50, indicating upside potential for silver prices [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's impact on the cotton industry is generally neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The USDA's December report made minor adjustments to the supply - demand data of major cotton - producing countries. In the 2025/26 season, the global supply remains relatively loose, and in the short - to - medium term, US cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data Adjustments - **Production**: The global production in the 2025/26 season was下调 by 64,000 tons. The US production was上调 by 34,000 tons to 3.107 million tons, while other major producers remained unchanged. The US cotton harvest area was unchanged, and the yield per unit was上调 from 919 pounds per acre in November to 929 pounds per acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption in the 2025/26 season was下调 by 60,000 tons, with Brazil's consumption下调 by 22,000 tons, and other major consumers remaining stable [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports were环比下调 by 59,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. Vietnam's imports were下调 by 21,000 tons, and Bangladesh's imports were下调 by 22,000 tons, while China's imports remained unchanged [1] - **Exports**: Global exports were下调 by 56,000 tons, and major exporters remained unchanged [1] - **Ending Stocks**: Global ending stocks in the 2025/26 season were环比小幅上调 by 9,000 tons. China's ending stocks were下调 by 1,000 tons, while the US's were上调 by 44,000 tons and Brazil's by 45,000 tons [2] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents production, consumption, import, export, and ending stock data of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 12, along with monthly and annual changes [3] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays data on production, harvest area, and ending stocks in the US cotton market in tons and thousands of hectares [6] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data on production, consumption, imports, and ending stocks in the Chinese cotton market, as well as the inventory - to - sales ratio [9] - **India Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents production, domestic consumption, and ending stock data in the Indian cotton market [14] - **Pakistan Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays data on production, domestic consumption, imports, and ending stocks in the Pakistani cotton market [17] - **Brazil Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows data on domestic consumption and ending stocks in the Brazilian cotton market [20] - **Australia Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents production and ending stock data in the Australian cotton market [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on market conditions and macro - economic factors. It also mentions potential risks and opportunities for each metal in the short and medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Situation**: Last week, copper prices hit record highs both at home and abroad. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. Domestic copper sales are active, and there is an expected production increase in December. LME copper cash premium decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants changed rapidly [1]. - **Supply**: The expected reduction of primary copper production by domestic smelters may be postponed. The current prices of scrap and fully refined products still support smelting capacity [1]. - **Demand**: The market trades based on expectations, and the current spot supply - demand relationship has little impact. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices will pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, copper prices may correct from record highs [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long positions along the M5 moving average and consider partial active profit - taking [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Market Situation**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina remains at a historical high of 96 million tons. The alumina balance is in a surplus state, and inventory increased last week. Exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out in December and January [1]. - **Supply**: There is still a profit in alumina production based on cost accounting, so there is no large - scale production reduction. The downside space of the futures price may be limited when the basis is large [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The medium - term trend is oscillating upward, but due to the approaching Fed meeting, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [1]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Domestic zinc mines are in short supply, and smelter maintenance is expanding. LME zinc inventory increased, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is high. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is oscillating at a high level [1]. - **Supply**: The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and the inventory split between domestic and foreign markets is gradually recovering. There is a risk of the outer market's short - squeeze ending and prices falling [1]. - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. The consumption of galvanized pipes is expected to be strong in 2026, and the demand increase is not overly pessimistic [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Supported by the tight supply of mines, Shanghai zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound and is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark after breaking through the annual line [1]. Lead - **Market Situation**: Last week, the expected production reduction by smelters and increased downstream buying at low prices supported the price rebound. The spot import window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market [1]. - **Supply**: LME lead inventory is still high, and the supply of lead concentrates is in short supply. The supply of lead ingots in the market is tight, and social inventory has decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The demand from the lead - acid battery industry is mixed, with an insufficient increase in demand [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton, but there may be short - term price increases due to capital movements [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel rebounded and consolidated at a high level, and Shanghai stainless steel also rebounded. The trading volume was low, and the market sentiment was cautious [1]. - **Supply**: The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel iron decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel increased. The support from rising prices has weakened [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand confidence is insufficient, and the成交 may become weak again [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is more reasonable to short at high levels [1]. Tin - **Market Situation**: Funds pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and Shanghai tin reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The price fluctuation increased [1]. - **Supply**: Indonesian tin exports in November may ensure the export volume at the end of the year. The situation in the Congo affects the supply of mines. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December [1]. - **Demand**: The traditional demand areas lack highlights, and the demand for high - end semiconductor products is the main bright spot. The social inventory of tin increased, and the LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to the high - level risks in 2026, especially after the Spring Festival. Consider a long - term hedging strategy and focus on the far - month out - of - the - money put option strategy [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate futures adjusted last week, and the short - selling was active. The market divergence decreased, and short - term speculation declined [1]. - **Supply**: The spot price of lithium carbonate slightly corrected. After the price decline, the willingness of miners to hold prices is strong, and the shipping enthusiasm is not high [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream production sentiment is positive, and the procurement willingness is strong [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market has a large divergence, and the fundamentals are generally strong, with short - sellers being relatively pressured [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The main contract of industrial silicon showed a weak downward trend. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased [1]. - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline slightly. The environmental protection inspection and safety supervision in Xinjiang may affect production [1]. - **Demand**: The inventory of industrial silicon increased. The inventory depletion at the end of the year is still under pressure [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. If the local factory's actual production reduction is limited, the price may further decline [1]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: The main contract of polysilicon reached a high point due to the expectation of delivery. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress the bullish sentiment [1]. - **Supply**: The production in November was lower than expected, and the production in December is expected to decline slightly. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises are reducing production [1]. - **Demand**: The downstream component production reduction has increased, and the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may remain firm after a short - term decline if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical news - driven rebound in oil prices has limited space and sustainability, and there is a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term. Gold and silver markets are affected by US economic data and Fed meetings, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. The prices of various metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and weather conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [2][3]. Summary by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian companies and the release of restricted oil supplies. The US oil production is expected to set a larger - than - expected record. The market is concerned about the IEA's December report. The oil price rebound has mostly been reversed, and there is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year, with a downward drive for oil prices in the medium - to - long - term [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is influenced by multiple factors and follows the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the demand drive is limited. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved, but the demand lacks highlights. The overall supply - demand pattern is loose, and the short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [19]. - **Asphalt**: Some refineries in Hebei have launched winter storage contracts, and the price is higher than market expectations. Some refineries in Shandong have switched to producing residue oil, and the supply has tightened, driving the market price up slightly. The decline of BU following the drop in crude oil prices is limited [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The number of job openings in the US in October increased, silver reached a new high, and the gold - silver ratio continued to decline. The market focuses on the Fed meeting, and it's not advisable to chase high prices for precious metals before gold breaks through the previous high resistance [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The copper price adjusted overnight, and some positions took profits when the Fed cut interest rates in December. The market is concerned about the adjustment, and some long positions can be held after taking partial profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated narrowly overnight. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but the short - term fundamental contradiction is limited, and the overbought situation in the technical aspect is being repaired [5]. - **Zinc**: The long positions took profits at high prices, and the Shanghai zinc price tested the annual line support. The domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease in December, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to rebound following the external market in the short - term, with a resistance level at 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lead**: The low price of lead reduces the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory in the exchange is low, and there is no obvious squeeze - out risk in the near - term. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement at low prices [9]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuated overnight. The Shanghai tin price continued to reduce positions and fell below the moving average. Options strategies can be considered [9]. - **Nickel**: No relevant content provided. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated. The manganese ore spot price increased, and the port inventory has a structural problem. The silicon - manganese production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in coal supply, which may lead to a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. The demand has some resilience, and the supply decreased slightly, with the inventory decreasing slightly [17]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the domestic arrival decreased. The port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore price has a downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be short - term fluctuations [13]. - **Coke**: The market expects a second - round price cut for coke. The coking profit is average, and the daily output increased slightly. The inventory decreased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreased. The total inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The steel price stabilized overnight. The demand for rebar decreased in the off - season, and the output and inventory decreased. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly. The steel mills' profitability is poor, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The black - series products are under pressure in the short - term, and the market is sensitive to macro - policies [12]. Chemicals - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon futures strengthened significantly, driven by the news of the establishment of a polycrystalline silicon consortium. The short - term upward expectation exists, but it needs policy verification to break through the upper limit of the range [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon broke through the previous low. The production reduction effect in the southwest region weakened, and the demand from the organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon industries decreased. The price may continue to decline, but it may be supported at the 8,000 - yuan/ton level [11]. - **Urea**: The urea price decreased slightly. The compound fertilizer enterprises increased their production, and the inventory of urea production enterprises decreased last week. The supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [21]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price continued to decline at night. The inventory at the port is expected to remain high, and the supply along the coast is sufficient. The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly within the range [22]. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene price continued to decline. The port inventory increased, but the supply - demand pressure may be relieved in the future. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend [23]. - **Styrene**: The crude oil price decreased, and the pure benzene price may fluctuate within a range, which is difficult to drive the styrene price up. However, the supply - demand structure of styrene has not weakened and may support the price [24]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene production enterprises' sales are smooth, but the price increase momentum is insufficient. The polyethylene supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply pressure of polypropylene is controllable, but the downstream demand is in the off - season [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price continued to decline. The supply pressure may be relieved if the enterprises are forced to overhaul. The export situation has improved, but the domestic demand is weak. The caustic soda price continued to decline, with high supply and low demand, and the industry inventory is under pressure [26]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell at night. The PX load decreased slightly, and the PTA output increased slightly. The terminal weaving load continued to decline. The PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and the PTA processing margin is expected to be repaired [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market was boosted by the news of device shutdowns. The supply increased, and the demand decreased seasonally, resulting in significant inventory accumulation pressure. The long - term pressure still exists [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber load is high, and the inventory increased slightly. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. The bottle - chip demand is weak, and the production capacity is in surplus, with the price mainly driven by costs [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean data in the December USDA report remained unchanged. The South American weather has improved, which is beneficial to soybean growth. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased. The strategy is to wait and see the South American weather, and consider going long if the weather deteriorates [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet remained unchanged in December. Argentina will reduce the export tax on soybeans and their products. The market expects the palm oil inventory in Malaysia to increase. The short - term view is that the prices of soybean oil and palm oil will fluctuate within a range [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is facing the supply impact of new crops. The supply is at its loosest stage, and the demand lacks positive factors. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import is diversified. The short - term price is expected to be weak [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price is in a sideways shock adjustment. The policy will auction imported soybeans. The short - term US soybean price is in a callback, and the medium - term price is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the domestic soybean spot and policy [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline in a shock pattern. The US corn export data increased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong. The supply of high - quality corn in the Northeast is tight, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. The short - term 01 contract may decline, and the 03 and 05 contracts can be considered for long - positions after the decline [37]. - **Live Pig**: The live pig 03 contract rebounded slightly, and the far - month contracts were weak. The impact of the epidemic on the pig supply is expected to be limited. The industry needs to reduce inventory, and the pig price may have a second - bottoming in the first half of next year [38]. - **Egg**: The egg futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased. The 01 contract price is expected to be weak due to the convergence of futures and spot prices. The far - month contracts have reached a short - term high [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price increased slightly. The domestic cotton sales progress is fast, but the downstream orders are weak, which limits the cotton price. The operation strategy is to wait and see [40]. - **Sugar**: The US sugar price fluctuated. The sugar production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [41]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price fluctuated at a high level. The cold - storage apple sales are average, and the price is strong. The short - term price is strong, but the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure [42]. - **Wood**: The wood futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but the port delivery increased last week. The low inventory supports the price, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price decreased at night. The port inventory decreased, and the new - year contract may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the operation strategy is to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [44]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Maersk's pricing strategy is cautious, and the downward freight rate center is expected to be around $2400 - 2500/FEU. The loading rate is increasing, but the market lacks strong driving factors. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate [18]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market was mixed, and the stock index futures closed down. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision. The A - share market is expected to be strong in a shock pattern, and investors can increase positions slightly at low prices after the uncertainty is relieved [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond futures fluctuated and adjusted. The interest - rate bond yields decreased. The market is still cautious, and investors can participate in the rebound of some oversold varieties after the liquidity is restored [46].