【尿素】 周末雨水过后，尿素现货市场走货有所好转。农业采购部分启动,复合肥夏季高氮肥生产进入尾声,生产企业 持续大幅累库。出口虽然有序放开,但法检流程推进较慢,部分货源被锁定，周期内满口库存小幅增长。尿素 供应充足延续,短期受农需启动以及国际尿素供应紧缺提振,行情止跌反弹。 【聚烯烃】 聚烯烃期货主力合约日内上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，油价走高从成本端对市场形成提振。国内LLDPE市场仍处于需 求谈季，下游行业整体需求表现缺乏显著完点。尽管基本面依旧疲弱，但盘面已经充分反映基本面利空，后期 随着农膜订单的积累，基本面有好转预期。聚丙烯方面,PP下游领域淡季特征明显,下游工厂盈利状况不佳, 对涨价后货源接受度不高，现货消化力度依旧偏弱，加之检修有所减少，供应近期小幅增加。不过价格已经处 于低位区间,随着成本端支撑走强,市场情绪仍有所修复。 | Million | ER FRANCE | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月16日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | な ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The commodity market is under pressure from both liquidity and demand, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The main driving factor for large - scale assets has shifted from the positive news of the China - US - UK economic and trade consultations to the re - escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict. The risk appetite of large - scale assets has declined under the impact of oil prices. However, due to the weak US dollar, the impact on A - shares is relatively limited. The conflict between Israel and Iran remains intense, and although the risk of the war getting out of control is low, there is a certain probability of short - term stalemate and recurrence, so uncertainty is high. The market is expected to fluctuate and repair in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 2.14%. The energy and chemical sector had a relatively large increase of 4.36%, while the agricultural products and precious metals sectors rose by 1.08% and 0.59% respectively. The non - ferrous metals and black sectors fell by 1.09% and 0.35% respectively. In terms of specific varieties, the top - rising varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with increases of 13.69%, 12.14%, and 8.62% respectively. The top - falling varieties were soda ash, urea, and zinc, with decreases of 4.62%, 3.43%, and 2.55% respectively. The funds in the market increased, mainly flowing into the petrochemical and precious metals sectors [1][5]. Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Amid the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran and the continuous geopolitical tension, the safe - haven sentiment in the precious metals market has significantly increased. As of June 16, 2025, gold futures have maintained high - level fluctuations, and funds have continuously flowed into safe - haven assets. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year and the marginal weakening of economic data such as non - farm payrolls, the macro - level continues to support the strong gold price. Silver has followed the upward trend under the overall boost of the precious metals sector, but its industrial demand recovery is not obvious, so its trend is a bit erratic [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: At the macro - level, as the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market still has disputes over the monetary policy path. However, the expectation of China's economic recovery continues to ferment, and overseas copper mine disturbances continue, providing strong support for copper prices. Aluminum has benefited from the slow resumption of electrolytic aluminum production and stable power supply, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand structure. Zinc, nickel, etc. are restricted by the external market trends and have relatively limited elasticity. Although the geopolitical situation has not directly impacted the supply chain, the risk premium has begun to emerge [2]. - **Black Metals**: Under the dual effects of the recovery of steel production and the seasonal weakening of demand, the supply - demand contradiction in the market has emerged. Although the policy side has continuously released positive signals, including targeted easing in the real estate and manufacturing directions, the effectiveness remains to be verified. The prices of coking coal and coke have had a phased rebound, mainly driven by supply disruptions at the mine end and the expectation of production cuts due to coking enterprises' losses, but they are still in the stage of bottom - building through fluctuations [2]. - **Energy**: Affected by the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the market's safe - haven sentiment has significantly increased, driving the rapid rebound of international crude oil prices. Domestic crude oil futures have risen strongly, leading to a general sharp increase in varieties such as fuel oil and asphalt. The geopolitical disturbances on the supply side and the US production expectations are in a tug - of - war, and short - term oil price fluctuations may intensify. The overall market is concerned about the stance of OPEC and the Fed's policy trends [3]. - **Chemicals**: Driven by the soaring cost of crude oil prices, major chemical products such as PTA, plastics, and methanol have seen a concentrated upward movement. At the same time, the maintenance of some devices and the downstream restocking demand support the spot market, driving the futures prices to rebound. The technical oversold rebound of some varieties has also led to sentiment repair, and the short - term popularity of the overall sector has increased, but the disconnection between raw material transmission and terminal acceptance still needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Climate disturbances and the external market have jointly boosted the sentiment of some sectors, especially the strong performance of oils and meals. Rapeseed meal has risen due to the substitution relationship and the rigid demand from the feed end, and oils have steadily increased against the background of the recovery of the international market. Staple grains such as corn and rice have continued to fluctuate, and sugar has shown a relatively strong performance due to the production - sales game. The continuous support from the policy level for agriculture and external disturbance factors are intertwined, putting the overall sector in a relatively bullish atmosphere [3]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally performed well. For example, the net value of most gold - related ETFs increased, with the weekly yields of some gold ETFs reaching around 1.55%. The trading volume of many gold ETFs also increased significantly, such as the trading volume of the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF increasing by 136.59%. The energy - chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Energy and Chemical Futures ETF) had a weekly yield of 3.09%. The soybean meal ETF had a weekly yield of 1.91%, the non - ferrous metals ETF decreased by 0.47%, and the silver fund had a weekly yield of 0.71%. The overall performance of commodity - related ETFs was positive, with the total scale and trading volume of commodity - related ETFs increasing [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Index futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 13, the stock index rose first and then fell, with a moderately increasing trading volume compared to the previous week, and the average daily trading volume was around 1.36 trillion yuan. Geopolitical conflicts and trade negotiations are still the main factors influencing the current market pattern [1]. - In terms of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 4 points, the valuation indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 9 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points [1]. - In terms of the term structure, the annualized basis after dividend adjustment of most contracts converged compared to the previous week, and the basis of the IH contract decreased overall and turned into a discount [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy did not change last week. In the long - term, financial data is mixed, with M1 and social financing showing better - than - expected performance, which contributes significantly to IC and IM. M2 and export data are weak, having less impact on index futures. In the short - term, the exchange rate shows low weekly volatility, the influence weight decreases, there is a lack of incremental funds, and the characteristics of stock game are significant [1]. - In terms of positions, the overall market risk preference declined in the second half of the week. The signal strength of IF and IH decreased significantly, but IC and IM still maintained a relatively high level, with the comprehensive signal showing a neutral oscillation. For treasury bond futures, the position factor shows a sign of marginal weakening after the rebound, but the current capital situation has significantly eased. The position reflects that institutions are still cautious about short - end allocation, and in the context of rising market sentiment, T is relatively strong in the cross - section signal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - Frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy: The blast furnace开工率 increased by 2.10%, with a current value of 45.12 and a historical quantile of 0.64. The index futures score was 6, and the treasury bond futures score was 0 [2]. - Inflation indicators: Some prices such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index decreased, while others like the CITIC compound fertilizer index increased. The index futures and treasury bond futures scores for inflation indicators were both 7 [3]. - Liquidity: DR007 decreased by 1.98%, and GC001: weighted average increased by 7.98%. The index futures score for liquidity was 4 [4]. - Index valuation: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) decreased by 0.01%, and the index futures score for valuation was 9 [5]. - Market sentiment: For index futures, the financing balance increased by 0.45%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange A - share trading volume increased by 32.92%. The index futures score was 8. For treasury bond futures, the trading volume of the Shanghai Treasury Bond Index increased by 19.07%, and the score was 8 [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital flow, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. The position is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. Prediction Signals - As of last Friday, the short - term model, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM, T, TF) are provided, with specific values as shown in the table. The comprehensive signal strength is synthesized by weighting the signals of three independent models (0 - 1) [18]. Last Week's Situation - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF main contracts were all 0 [20]. Recent Earnings Performance - The interval returns in the past 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years were 0.42%, 1.45%, 3.48%, 8.35%, and 25.16% respectively, and the corresponding maximum drawdowns were 0, 0.07%, 0.51%, 0.59%, and 3.27% [22]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, and the signals are divided into three types: '1', '0', and '- 1'. In actual operation, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [23]. Market Quotes and Trading Signals - For TF and T main contracts from June 9 to June 13, 2025, the N - S model signals and trend regression model signals are provided in the table [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a one-star rating (★☆☆) for the CITIC Five-Style - Financial, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability in the market [3]. Core Viewpoints - In the public fund market, the returns of equity and bond strategies showed slight differentiation in the past week. The energy and chemical ETF had a significant net value increase, while the non-ferrous metal ETF had a slight decline. The financial and cyclical styles of the CITIC Five-Style recorded positive returns, and the style timing model signals a preference for the financial style this week [3]. - Among the Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, and the factor cross-sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week. The style timing strategy had a return of 0.44% last week, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Market Returns - As of the week ending June 13, 2025, the weekly returns of the Tonglian All-A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -0.41%, 0.17%, and 2.14% respectively [3]. - In the public fund market, equity strategies showed mixed performance, with index enhancement strategies slightly回调 and market neutral strategies under slight pressure. Bond strategies saw better performance in medium - and long - term pure bonds, and the convertible bond index weakened slightly. Commodity strategies had significant increases in the energy and chemical ETF and the soybean meal ETF [3]. CITIC Style Index - Last Friday, the returns of the CITIC Five-Style index were differentiated, with the financial and cyclical styles recording positive returns. The style rotation chart showed a slight decline in the consumer and stable styles in terms of relative strength, and the cyclical style strengthened marginally in terms of indicator momentum [3]. - Only growth-style funds outperformed the index in the public fund pool in the past week, with an excess return of 0.15%. Some financial-style funds shifted towards consumer and cyclical styles [3]. Barra Factors - In the past week, the residual volatility factor had a weekly excess return of 0.82%. The scale factor's excess return continued to compress, and the leverage and growth factors' returns strengthened slightly. The medium - and long - term momentum and growth factors had better performance in terms of win - rate [3]. - The factor cross - sectional rotation speed increased slightly this week and is currently in the medium - to low - percentile range of history [3]. Style Timing Model - According to the latest score of the style timing model, the financial style rebounded this week, while the consumer and cyclical styles declined, and the current signal favors the financial style. The style timing strategy's return last week was 0.44%, with an excess return of 0.66% compared to the benchmark balanced allocation [3].

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。螺纹表需环比继续下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求、产量均小幅回落，库存继续累积。铁 水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从1-5月数据看，基建回暖缺乏持续性，制造业投资增速继续 放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，内需整体依然疲弱。市场 ...

| Million | > 国技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月16日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅上涨，从目前中美谈判情况来看,虽然表态比较积极,但落实到具体措施仍有较多不确定性。棉花观货成交一 般,贸易商采购比较积极、基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱价格跟随原料价格有所上涨，但需求表现仍然一般。棉花现货价格坚挺,优 质资源逐渐减少,基差持续偏强,市场对于后期库存有偏紧的预期,截至5月底棉花商业库存为345.87万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ★★☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows complex trends affected by multiple factors, including policies, weather, geopolitics, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different characteristics and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For most products, weather is a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term, especially from June to August [2][3] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade still exist, and the market is currently treated as volatile [3] Summary by Product Beans 1 - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate strongly. Policy trading volume is low, and warehouse receipts decrease year - on - year. Short - term weather in Northeast China is beneficial to crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive, which supports CBOT soybean prices. In the medium term, weather will drive price fluctuations both overseas and domestically [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Israel - Iran war and the US EPA policy drive up US soybean and soybean meal prices. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply is loose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The market is currently volatile, and attention should be paid to the oil end and future weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - In China, oil is strong and meal is weak, and the oil - meal ratio rises significantly. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive for the long - term, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Geopolitics, biodiesel policies, and产区 weather are the main factors affecting rapeseed futures prices. Currently, multiple factors are positive, and a bullish strategy is maintained [6] Corn - The USDA June corn report is slightly positive. Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures first rose and then eased. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rebound slightly. In the short term, there is downward pressure on prices, but in the medium term, policy support may provide price support [8] Eggs - Egg futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. Spot prices and near - term futures are rebounding. However, if the price rebounds too quickly, there is a risk of price fluctuations [9]

兔轰声明，国恐晓指南队公司是经中国正盆会州比诺辽边城晓经营机构，已具葡湘资投资海加业务资格，本报告仅供缅俄湖活有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）的机构或个人宿户（以下随所"银房"），使用，本公司不会困俄的人收到本报告而明恩 为宿口 如痴b A共和羅矩隊都會一 兩次殖風荷物網、本標合羅手本公司认为可相应:公开德。但本公司不但正的葡萄座的海滩在宗ଙ出，泰因及糖卻是帶增香中，都是兩種緻的點，糖及及糖切皮 魔本公司于发布和舒盖坦的斯，本猴合所能的疑挡或明和的价值，价值可能会润成，在不同时隔，本公司可以出与标准所载牌、意见及糖尿管，每不应的味花治海潮出现空海流动物一幅 竞，本报告提供这些地址或超领班能的目的实际是为了都产使用力便，随速网站的内容不构成本相信的任何部分，客不南与行承担润达达越经网站成带用成功。本相告的领导体公司所有，本公司对本报告保障一切死利，除利异同书跟显示，西段 本报告中的所有材料放权的易审公司，未起本公司审先书面授权，本报告的任何确分为不得以任何力式制作任何形式的将风、昆印书友影剧局，或 �� 闯投期货 地产月月览: 2025年1-5月 黑金研投团队 2025/6/16 主要指标 5月单月增速 4月单月 ...

| E Kain K | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月16日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价受中东地缘风险迅速升温影响大幅上涨，布伦特08合约周度上涨12.8%，今日开盘后高开低走。周末 伊以双方延续互相袭击，以色列对伊朗最大天然气田南帕尔斯及油库进行袭击。尽管目前对能源基础设施的袭击局 限在伊朗国内供应链而非对外出口,但仍未缓和的地缘冲突及霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁仍令市场对潜在的中东供应成 量进行定价。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍可继 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for biomass diesel in the US shows an increasing trend, with stable demand in the early stage and growth in the later stage. From 2026 to 2027, compared with 2024, the demand will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively, and the total raw material demand will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively [1][8] - The growth in demand for biomass diesel will lead to an increase in the use of North American rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the North American market will be stronger than overseas markets [1][2] - The actual production performance needs to be monitored to dynamically evaluate the impact of RIN obligations set by the EPA for 2026 and 2027 [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Biomass Diesel Obligation and Demand Trends - The biomass diesel obligation volumes in 2026 and 2027 are 5610 and 5860 million gallons respectively. Compared with the 4952 million gallons (domestic production + net imports) in 2024, they will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively [8] - The total raw material demand in 2026 and 2027 will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively compared with 2024 [8] 2. Raw Material Sources and Substitution - In 2024, vegetable oils were mainly sourced from North American local raw materials, while animal fats and yellow greases also had raw materials from other regions. The total raw materials from other regions for beef tallow and yellow greases were 286 million tons [1][2] - Assuming that non - North American and imported raw materials are replaced by North American local raw materials, the demand in 2024 is estimated to be 319 million tons, accounting for nearly 40% of the edible demand [7] 3. Import and Export of Biomass Diesel and Raw Material Conversion - In 2024, the net imports of biodiesel + renewable diesel in the US converted into total raw materials were 33 million tons [5] - The net imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel in 2024 were 89 and - 55 million tons respectively, with a total net import of 33 million tons [5] 4. Consumption of Vegetable Oils - The industrial and edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the US from 2022/2023 to 2025/2026 is provided, and the total edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is in the range of 8406 - 8669 million tons [8]