Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending November 21, index futures declined. IH2511 dropped 2.49%, IF2511 fell 3.38%, IC2511 decreased 5.17%, and IM2511 declined 5.02%. Geopolitical tensions and overseas tech - stock corrections, along with the weakening of the Fed's rate - cut expectations, pressured investors' risk appetite [1]. - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores for index futures are: inflation indicator 8 points, liquidity indicator 8 points, valuation indicator 11 points, and market sentiment indicator 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator is 8 points, the liquidity indicator is 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator is 8 points [1]. - The weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of IH, IF, IC, and IM at the end of the period were - 3.35%, - 5.92%, - 9.19%, and - 9.89% respectively. The basis rates of IC and IM contracts were above the 50th percentile in the past year, showing significant divergence in the basis trends of index futures [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.21% last week. In the long - term, most economic data indicate weakening growth, pressuring index futures. In the short - term, high - frequency real estate and consumption remain weak, the exchange rate is at a low level, and the capital market remains relatively loose, resulting in a relatively limited short - term decline [1]. - For index futures, the risk appetite is at a six - month low, IF and IH are relatively neutral, and the overall comprehensive signal is below neutral. For treasury bond futures, the capital market remains loose, the market risk appetite is conducive to the bond market's recovery, but the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant, and the bond market is insensitive to fundamental feedback. The position factor has declined, and institutional year - end allocation behavior has not yet emerged intensively, with the comprehensive signal in a neutral oscillation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy: The scores for index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 and 0 respectively (on a scale of 0 - 10). Different indicators such as blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc., show various week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [2]. - Inflation indicators: The scores for both index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Various inflation - related indicators like the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc., have different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [3]. - Liquidity: The score for index futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc., show different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [4]. - Index valuation: The score for index futures is 10 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc., have different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock indices [5]. - Market sentiment: For stock indices, the score is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10), and for bonds, the score is 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Different sentiment - related indicators such as margin trading balances, bond yields, etc., show various week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital market high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic low - frequency indicators. The position is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [16]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths and values greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 and values less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position data signals are shielded 7 days before delivery [17]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental three - factor model uses the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and signals are classified into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread trend or oscillation), '- 1' (large spread may increase). The trend regression model filters signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In practice, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [20]. - For TF and T main contracts, different dates show different signals from the N - S model and the trend regression model [23].

Report Investment Rating - The report gives an operation rating of ★☆☆ for CITIC's five-style - stable [4] Core View - In the week ending November 21, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -5.12%, -0.02%, and -1.81% respectively. The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened, short - term pure bonds had strong returns, convertible bond strategies had a pullback, and the returns of non - ferrous and precious metal ETFs and energy and chemical ETFs declined. In the CITIC five - style, all styles fell last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles performing weakly. The style timing signal favors the stable style this week [3][4] Section Summaries Fund Market Review - The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened collectively in the past week, with the ordinary stock index falling 5.13%. Short - term pure bond returns were strong, convertible bond strategy returns pulled back, non - ferrous and precious metal ETF returns adjusted, and energy and chemical ETF net values continued to decline [4] Equity Market Style - **CITIC Five - Style Performance**: All five styles closed down last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles having weak returns. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength and relative strength momentum of the five styles declined. In the public fund pool, the average performance of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the benchmark in the past week. The market's deviation from the financial and growth styles increased. The crowding indicator changed little compared to last week, and the growth and cycle styles were in the lower quantile range in the past year [4] - **Neutral Strategy**: As of last week, the basis of IH and IF (futures - spot) declined and fell below the range of one standard deviation below the three - month average. In contrast, the basis of IC and IM showed an upward trend. Recently, the average premium rate index of ETFs corresponding to stock indices rebounded, with the premium rate indices of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs rising more significantly [4] - **Barra Factors**: In the past week, the leverage and intraday volatility factors had better returns, with a weekly excess return of 1.14%. The returns of medium - and long - term momentum factors continued to weaken. In terms of winning rates, the residual momentum factor increased slightly, and the growth factor decreased. The cross - section rotation speed of factors this week was the same as last week and was in the higher quantile range in the past year [4] - **Style Timing Model**: According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the cycle style declined this week, and the growth style rebounded slightly. The current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -3.94%, with an excess return of 0.59% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [4]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 上周国际油价回落，布伦特01合约跌2.77%。俄乌协议再现曙光，周日美乌双方就美国提出的结束 俄乌冲突28点新计划举行的会谈取得进展,特朗普提出本周四是乌克兰接收和平方案的最后期限, 美联储对12月降息的反复态度亦令原油等风险资产承压。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面临 更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险。 2025年11月24日 (责金属) (原油) 周五贵金属震荡偏弱。美国补发部分经济数据具备韧性，美联储官员们表态存在较大分歧，周五组 约联储主席称利率仍有调整空间令市场再度提升对12月降息押注。美方提出俄乌和平计划遭到多方 反对,后续仍将持续博弈。短期市场多空消息繁杂,贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向性突破。 【铜】 上周五伦铜收回盘中跌幅、尾盘走高，沪铜8.55万再显韧性。美联储票委言论将下月降息概率预期 再次提至五成以上，带动贵金属与铜价反弹回升。LME0-3月转微幅升水，库存15.5万吨，且注销仓 单占比低。沪铜上周减仓,价格震荡在短期均线间。国内沪粤现货交割后延续升水报价。前期空单 ...

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 研究院—点石成金 曹颖 黑色金属首席分析师 Z0012043 1.蒙煤年末进口冲量，带来显著的供应增量 进口煤上量，焦煤重归颓势？ 近日伴随着甘其毛都关口蒙煤通关车数的持续高位，关于蒙古煤炭出口年末 要放量的市场预期也在持续发酵。今日市场对于 2025 年甘其毛都口岸的年度进 出口货运量目标讨论度颇高，按照 4200、4300 和 4500 万吨的不同目标值，当前 进口煤炭的完成度不等，也会导致日历年剩下的日通关车辆目标有很大不同。不 过据粗略估算，如果按照 4300 万吨左右的口岸年度目标值来预计，剩下的蒙煤 日通关车数对应的水平也应该在 1320 车/天左右。而甘其毛都关口本周日均通关 车数已经高达 1345 车/天，因此考虑到气温的季节性骤减对运输效率的影响，我 们预计蒙煤年末冲击规模已经得以体现。 但不可否认的是，如此高水平的通关水平如能持续到年底，还是对北方的炼 焦煤市场带来了明显的供应增量，也会导致 2601 焦煤合约的交割货源规模得到 进一步扩大。当前，甘其毛都关口的蒙 5 原煤报价已经从 10 月底的 1180 元/吨 跌至临近 1000 大关，跌幅几乎和期货盘面相当， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with many varieties showing a pattern of reduced positions and price fluctuations. The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, and investment opportunities and risks vary [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper reduced positions and declined, testing the MA40 moving average again in the short - term. The domestic refined copper was reported at 85,815 yuan, and the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong slightly increased. Technically, LME copper temporarily fell below the 40 - day moving average, with potential support at the MA60 moving average. Short - positions should adjust the stop - loss level to 86,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China slightly narrowed. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, with poor inventory accumulation feedback, and the adjustment may continue. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, with rising inventory and supply surplus. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina will operate weakly [3][6] Zinc - Affected by the divergence of US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data and the unclear prospect of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector continued to reduce positions. Shanghai zinc, as a low - valued variety, was more resistant to decline than Shanghai aluminum. There is still a profit opportunity for cross - market reverse arbitrage on the disk, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel hit a new low recently, and the market trading activity increased. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the nickel industry chain. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel price is running weakly with a downward - trending center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and declined. In October, the import of domestic tin concentrates increased significantly month - on - month. The long - term short - positions should hold with a stop - loss level of 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down. The market is worried about systemic risks due to the overnight plunge of overseas US stocks, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Risk control should be the top priority [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures continued to decline with reduced positions. The spot prices of industrial silicon and silicone remained unchanged. The impact of the expected reduction in silicone demand on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is relatively limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the price dynamics of silicone [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures opened lower and then oscillated higher. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are weakening. The supply - demand improvement of polysilicon is limited, and the short - term futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and maintains an oscillating pattern [11]

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Threaded steel is rated with three stars (★★★), hot-rolled coil with three white stars (☆☆☆), iron ore with three white stars (☆☆☆), coke with three red stars (★★★), coking coal with one red star (★☆☆), silicon manganese with one red star (★☆☆), and ferrosilicon with one red star (★☆☆) [1]. Core Views - The overall situation of the steel industry is complex. The demand is still pessimistic, the cost side is weak, and the market is under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weak. The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation, while the ferrosilicon market has relatively strong bottom support [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has improved, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and steel mills continue to lose money. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export of steel has declined from its high level. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, and the market is under pressure, but there is still some support in the downward shift of the oscillation range [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating today. The global shipment is strong, and the domestic port inventory is still in an accumulative trend. The demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off-season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally looser, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3]. Coke - The coke price declined today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream's procurement is on a small scale as needed. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coke market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, and the spot auction transactions are average. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and oscillating [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated downward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, but the production of silicon manganese is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downward [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated upward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The bottom support is relatively strong [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]