Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (Thread and Hot Rolled Coil)**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi - empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★, with a somewhat unclear bias, but the symbol contains a star, indicating a certain upward or downward driving force, but limited operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase, but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for steel products is weak, with the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermenting. The market is in a state of short - term shock, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] - The supply pressure of iron ore is increasing, and there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [3] - The prices of coke and coking coal have rebounded slightly. Although the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese has rebounded, but the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] - The price of silicon ferrosilicon has rebounded, with overall acceptable demand and a slight decline in inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased month - on - month in the off - season, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased, production increased, and inventory began to accumulate [2] - **Demand Situation**: Downstream demand is generally weak. Infrastructure improvement is limited, manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, real - estate sales recovery lacks sustainability, and new construction and construction have continued to decline significantly. Although steel exports remained high in May, the demand expectation is still pessimistic [2] - **Future Trend**: The steel market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2] Iron Ore - **Supply Situation**: Global iron ore shipments continued to rebound and reached a new high this year, and the domestic arrival volume continued to increase. It is expected to remain high in the short term, and port inventory may stop falling and rise [3] - **Demand Situation**: Terminal demand has weakened in the off - season. Although the profitability of steel mills is okay and the motivation for active production reduction is insufficient, there is still a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain in the medium term [3] - **Future Trend**: The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price of coke rebounded slightly [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coke is still at a relatively high level this year, and the overall inventory has increased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [4] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price of coking coal rebounded quickly after a decline [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of coking coal mines has declined slightly from a high level, and the overall inventory has decreased slightly. Downstream iron - making is at a high level, and the impact of tariffs has eased [6] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US tariff disturbances [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon manganese rebounded driven by coking coal [7] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production has begun to increase. Manganese ore inventory has increased significantly, and it is expected that the quotation of manganese mines will decline [7] - **Future Trend**: It is recommended to try long positions lightly and observe the sustainability of the rebound [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - **Market Performance**: The price of silicon ferrosilicon rebounded driven by coking coal [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon ferrosilicon has continued to decline, and the overall demand is acceptable. The inventory has decreased slightly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction [8] - **Future Trend**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the inventory reduction model on the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2. After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound. The focus is on whether Sino - US economic and trade consultations can reverse the macro - expectations [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its cracking spread is expected to weaken due to supply increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is expected to be under pressure due to insufficient demand and sufficient supply [3]. - Today's asphalt performance is weak, but the terminal demand is expected to improve. The de - stocking trend continues, and although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. - Domestic LPG market is under pressure due to loose supply, limited growth in chemical demand and rising inventory. It maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Global oil inventory increased by 2.2% in Q1 and 1.6% since Q2, with crude oil inventory up 2.1% and refined oil inventory up 0.8% [2]. - After the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase in July, the crude oil is supported by macro - risk sentiment repair, demand improvement in peak season and geopolitical risks, but the mid - term demand slowdown and supply increase will limit the short - term rebound [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing is low. Although there is some support from power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa, the demand for crude oil power - generation may exceed that of fuel oil this summer. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken due to supply increase [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has insufficient demand for ship bunkering, and with sufficient supply from refineries, its cracking spread is expected to be under pressure [3]. Asphalt - Today's asphalt performance is weak, and the cracking spread continues to decline. The theoretical loss of processing diluted asphalt is serious, and the inventory of diluted asphalt at ports is at a low level [4]. - The production increase of asphalt by refineries with quotas may lack sustainability, and the increase in asphalt production by major refineries is expected to be limited after the maintenance peak [4]. - The terminal demand for asphalt is expected to improve, and the de - stocking trend continues. Although the cracking spread faces short - term callback pressure, the upward trend is hard to reverse [4]. LPG - The domestic LPG market has loose supply due to weak refinery prices, falling terminal sales and increased refinery output. The chemical demand has limited growth space, and the inventory at terminals and refineries is rising, so the market is under pressure [5]. - The LPG market maintains a low - level oscillation with some support from rising crude oil prices [5].

2025/6/10 USDA周度大豆玉米生长报告 // 国投期货 宋腾 Z0021166 截至6月8日当周，美国大豆优良率为68％，市场预期为68％，前一周为67％，去年同期为72％。大豆种植率为 90%，大豆出苗率为75%，整体符合报告前各方预期。美国玉米优良率为71%，高于市场预期的70%，前一周为 点评 69%，去年同期为74%。玉米种植率为97%，玉米出苗率为87%。天气上，在未来两周大部分美大豆玉米产区降雨 高于同期平均值，温度也高于同期平均值，有利于大豆玉米的种植生长。时间上逐步进入天气交易窗口，投资者需密 切关注6-8月天气变化所带来的驱动变化。 王米 大豆 单位：% 本期数据 上期数据 5年平均 去年同期 单位：% 本期数据 5年平均 ┣期数据 夫年同期 播种率 90 84 播种率 97 88 86 d3 97 94 出苗率 出苗率 75 63 72 ୧୫ 87 78 87 83 优良率 优良率 ୧୫ 67 72 71 ea 74 USDA美国大豆播种率 USDA美国玉米播种率 100 100 90 80 80 70 摇 轴 率 5 午 3 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5/2 5/ ...

尿素期货价格连续下跌。农业需求部分启动,但采购较为分散,随采随用为主;复合肥夏季高氮肥生产进入尾 声，工业需求不断走弱，生产企业持续累库。出口虽然有序放开，但法检流程推进较慢，部分货源被锁定，周 期内港口库存环比持平。尿素供应充足延续，近期工农业下游跟进乏力，叠加出口需求不及预期，价格松动下 行。 | Mille | 国技斯特 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月10日 | | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | 塑料 | なな女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | РХ | ★☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | | | 短纤 | ★☆☆ | 瓶片 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | 甲醇 | ななな | 尿素 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | PVC | なな女 | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 文文文 纯碱 | | ★☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | ...

Report Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - The proportion of short positions in commodities has slightly increased, with differentiation in the precious metals sector and a slight rebound in the agricultural products sector. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are agricultural products and precious metals, while the relatively weak one is energy and chemicals [2]. - In terms of strategy net worth, different factors showed varying trends last week, and the comprehensive signals for different commodities this week are either long, short, or neutral [4][7]. Summaries by Relevant Content Commodity Market Conditions - Precious metals: Gold's time - series momentum declined, while the marginal position of Shanghai silver increased, and short - cycle momentum significantly recovered [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: There were some differences in positions, and the cross - sectional differentiation narrowed, with copper remaining relatively strong [2]. - Black metals: The term structure differentiation narrowed, the position factors of iron ore and rebar increased, and short - cycle momentum factors rose [2]. - Energy and chemicals: The overall short - cycle momentum declined [2]. - Agricultural products: The positions of oilseeds and meals slightly increased, and palm oil remained relatively strong in the term structure [2]. Factor Returns | Factor | Last Week's Return (%) | Current Month's Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | 0.55 (Methanol), - 0.23 (Float glass), - 0.07 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.00 (Float glass), 0.42 (Iron ore), - 0.19 (Aluminum) | | Demand | 0.00 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.00 (Aluminum) | 0.54 (Methanol), 0.00 (Float glass), - 0.45 (Aluminum) | | Inventory | - 0.19 (Methanol), 0.82 (Float glass), 0.00 (Iron ore), 0.12 (Aluminum) | 0.99 (Methanol), 0.91 (Float glass), - 0.44 (Aluminum) | | Spread | 0.41 (Methanol), 1.11 (Float glass), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.28 (Aluminum) | 0.41 (Methanol), 0.28 (Iron ore), - 0.75 (Aluminum) | | Synthetic Factor | 0.43 (Methanol), 0.63 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.07 (Aluminum) | 0.27 (Methanol), 0.70 (Float glass), 0.09 (Iron ore), - 0.47 (Aluminum) | [3][4][7] Momentum and Structure Data of Different Sectors | Sector | Momentum Time - series | Momentum Cross - section | Term Structure | Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Black Metals | | 0.09 | 0 | - 0.08 | | Non - ferrous Metals | 0.05 | - 0.21 | 0.52 | 1.13 | | Energy and Chemicals | - 0.02 | 0.18 | 0.37 | 0.69 | | Agricultural Products | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.41 | - 0.19 | | Stock Index | - 0.71 | 0.46 | - 0.63 | 1.06 | | Precious Metals | 0.12 | | | 0.88 | [5] Fundamental Factors of Different Commodities - **Methanol**: The domestic device capacity utilization rate increased, the supply - side long - position intensity weakened to neutral; traditional downstream manufacturers' raw material procurement decreased, the demand side was neutral to bearish; inland and port inventories continued to increase, the inventory side was bearish; the market price in East and South China coastal areas released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [4]. - **Float glass**: The enterprise start - up load decreased slightly, the supply side remained neutral; second - tier city commercial housing transaction data released a long - position signal but with weakened intensity, the demand side was neutral to bullish; the inventory of Shanxi enterprises decreased, the inventory side was bullish; the Shenyang - Shahe regional spread factor released a long - position signal, and the spread side was neutral to bullish [7]. - **Iron ore**: The cumulative amount of raw ore continued to decline, the supply - side signal turned neutral; the monthly output of WSA blast furnace pig iron in China continued to decline, the demand - side signal turned neutral; the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore concentrate continued to decline, the inventory side remained neutral; the freight rate of Brazilian Tubarao to Qingdao continued to decline, the spread - side signal remained neutral [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM domestic lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline, the supply - side signal remained bearish; China's lead alloy exports in May continued to decrease compared to April, the demand - side signal remained neutral; SMM aluminum concentrate monthly balance continued to decline, the inventory side turned neutral; the 0 - 1 spread declined, the spread - side signal remained bearish [7].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|化工视点】 烧碱专题： 下游氧化铝需求分析 专题报告 在烧碱的下游需求中，氧化铝需求占比最大，达到30%，对烧碱有较强的议价能力，而今年烧碱行情的大 涨大跌，背后与氧化铝有着密切的关联，下文我们将从氧化铝角度分析烧碱的需求，以及背后驱动今年行情剧 烈波动的原因。 1、进口铝土矿耗碱量低 氧化铝是烧碱最大的下游，占比为30%，烧碱需求量跟氧化铝行业产量增速密切相关，烧碱的需求受到氧 化铝产量增速影响以外，还受到铝土矿品质的影响。氧化铝生产工艺有三种，为拜耳法、烧结法、拜耳烧结联 合法，由于拜耳法生产工艺简单，流程短，产品质量高，目前主流的生产方法是拜耳法，约占全国氧化铝产能 的90%以上，全球占比达到95%以上。拜耳法使用烧碱，适于处理高品位的铝土矿； 烧结法使用轻碱；联合法 产能很少，仅山西、重庆地区部分氧化铝装置维持两种方法共存的生产工艺，一般两者价差波动不大时，不太 会轻易更换设备，只有价差严重失衡时，才会选择更换设备。 想要 ge 代招 铝+矿 the may 智液 aku 曲级铝 | 矿石类型 | 铝硅比(Al/Si) | 单吨氧化铝耗碱量(kg) | 矿耗(吨矿/吨氧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月10日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上突破刷新 2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近,特朗普关税政策将继续主导市场,俄乌等地缘局势持 续紧张，金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空间。本周中美经贸磋商机制首 次会议在英国伦敦举行,关注是否能释放进一步缓和信号。 ★洛杉矶抗议：加州起诉特朗普政府调兵进入洛杉矶，后者威胁逮捕加州州长、马斯克公开支持特朗普派 兵、特朗普表示不希望美国发生内战。 ★美司法部要求法院延长特朗普关税无效判决的暂缓执行期。 ★美国国会预算办公室：预估 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The bear market of coking coal is not over, but the decline slope may slow down. The recent sharp rise in coking coal futures prices is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a signal of reversal. The coking coal valuation will bottom out and stabilize only when terminal demand is boosted or supply is significantly reduced after the valuation is depressed [16][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Mongolia's Political Change and Coking Coal Supply - On June 3rd, Mongolia removed Prime Minister Oyun - Erdene, leading to market expectations of tightened coal export policies, with some expecting a 20% coal export resource tax increase. Currently, there is no policy adjustment, but even without supply - side disturbances, the supply of Mongolian coal will shrink as the current second - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is higher than the latest transaction price. The decline in the third - quarter long - term contract price needs to be awaited [3] - The previous decline of the coking coal futures 2509 contract price had already factored in the expected decline of about $6 in the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal, indicating that the decline rhythm of coking coal futures prices was relatively advanced [5][7] II. Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Although the overall supply of domestic coking coal mines remains high, there has been a continuous small - scale reduction in production for several weeks. Some large mines have reduced production due to full warehouses, some mines have been shut down for rectification due to accidents, and a small number of private mines have cut production due to losses. However, the overall reduction scale is not significant yet [9] - According to Fenwei Energy statistics, the average profit level of 227 mines from 88 enterprises across the country has been continuously compressed, and sample mines in Shaanxi are close to the break - even point. Some coking coal mines in certain regions have entered the loss zone, but most private coking coal mines are still far from cash - flow losses. A significant reduction in carbon element supply requires a further decline in the price center [12] III. Demand Side - Although there are concerns about the seasonal decline in steel terminal demand, the current daily hot metal output remains at around 2.4 million tons, maintaining high - level rigid demand for all furnace materials. The hot metal output from June to August this year may remain at a relatively high level of around 2.35 million tons per day, which may delay the negative feedback process of the entire ferrous metals [14] - The 5500K port price of thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - to - date decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blended coking coal [17]

莱系今日小幅上扬，莱粕略强于菜油。菜系市场主要关注加拿大莱籽产区天气与中加贸易关系。萨斯喀彻温省 油菜优良率为57%，差于过往两年的同期水平。阿尔伯塔省受限于春季以来降雨有限,土壤湿度呈现下滑趋势, 情况与2022年、2023年较为类似，参考历史上这两年的情况来看,6月份的降雨会对墒情大有益处,关注6月份 的降雨情况。中美双方在伦敦举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议备受关注，乐观预期提振了国内外油籽、油箱 期价。综合来看，国内菜系期价短期存在支撑，策略上仍以短多为主。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z001203 ...