Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound due to new cotton listing and general demand, while the spot price is stable. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions. It's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to remain weak. Brazilian production data is bearish, and there is supply pressure in the domestic market. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate [3]. - Apple: There is an increase in long - short divergence. The market's trading logic shifts to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation should be monitored [4]. - Natural Rubber, 20 - number Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber: Demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and cost support is stable. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. - Pulp: Due to continuous inventory build - up at domestic ports, loose supply, weak demand, and narrowing basis, the pulp price has been falling. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - Timber: Low inventory supports the price. With weak domestic prices, low import willingness, and certain demand, it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Price: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 950 - 1050 [2]. - Supply: As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, an increase of 670,000 tons year - on - year and 1.342 million tons more than the four - year average [2]. - Demand: The pure cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, decreased开机, and weavers mainly making rigid purchases [2]. Sugar - International: Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In mid - late October, the production data in central - southern Brazil was bearish, with increased cane crushing volume and a slightly higher sugar - making ratio [3]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate, and the 2025/26 sugar output in Guangxi is expected to be good [3]. Apple - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the price of small and medium - sized apples in the warehouse was relatively strong [4]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73% [4]. - Trading Logic: The trading logic has shifted to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation is the main trading point [4]. 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Price: The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR fluctuated sharply. Domestic spot prices were stable with a slight decline, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price rose [6]. - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, while the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - tapping period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, and some plants were under maintenance [6]. - Demand: The domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire enterprises' maintenance [6]. - Inventory: The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 452,600 tons, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39,800 tons [6]. Pulp - Price: The pulp futures continued to fall. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a 63,000 - ton increase from the previous period and a 3.0% month - on - month increase [7]. - Supply and Demand: The supply was loose, demand was weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [7]. Timber - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price was stable [8]. - Supply: In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased, and domestic importers' willingness to import decreased. Domestic supply is expected to remain low [8]. - Demand: The port delivery volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, providing support for the price [8]. - Inventory: The total log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [8].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend, and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, keep an eye on the performance of the spot and policy sides of domestic soybeans, and wait for the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation [2][3] - Wait for the end of the correction and focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after stabilization [3] - Continuously monitor the performance of the palm oil supply - demand side and the fluctuations in the macro - situation [4] - Maintain a bearish strategy for the domestic rapeseed sector and pay attention to the interference of foreign bio - fuel policies and economic and trade relationship expectations [6] - Wait for the signing of the specific Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in Northeast China [7] - In the medium - term, continue to observe whether the market trading logic returns to the weak spot market or the expected logic, and hold short positions cautiously [9] Summary by Category Bean - The main contract price of bean futures has declined recently, with significant position reduction on the trading floor and a slowdown in the downward trend. The auction of soybeans by Sinograin this week was fully sold, with an average transaction price of 3,900 yuan per ton. Imported US soybeans have been adjusting recently, affected by the weak overall macro - atmosphere and profit - taking [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 continued to follow the US soybeans, showing a weak and volatile trend. The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its impact on the soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the near - end crushing profit is poor but the loss has narrowed recently. The domestic soybean meal may continue to accumulate inventory [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Commodities generally declined today, the macro - atmosphere was weak, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts in December decreased. The international crude oil price dropped, and the international diesel price also tumbled. The supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is still poor, with an expected 10.32% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20 and a 14.13% - 40.62% month - on - month decrease in exports from November 1 - 29. The soybean - palm oil price spread continues to widen, indicating that soybean oil is stronger than palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The import volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has decreased year - on - year by 10 - 30%. The market focus is on the variables of rapeseed imports. If the Australian rapeseed arrives in China smoothly, the premium of the rapeseed sector over other competitors may decline [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose 1.11% today, breaking through the 2,200 mark at one point. The price of Northeast corn has declined in the past two days, but farmers are reluctant to sell due to the cold weather. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market prefers high - quality Northeast corn, leading to concerns about future supply and transportation capacity in Northeast China. The previous prediction of a second bottom may turn into a wide - range shock [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to be weak, with the near - month contract hitting a new low. The spot price declined slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuated downward during the day, almost erasing yesterday's gains. The spot price was mostly stable, with slight declines in some areas. The short - term market volatility has increased [9]

Report Information - Report Title: "Monthly Report on Naphtha Shipments in October 2025" [2] - Release Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Research Group: Chemical Group of Guotou Futures Research Institute [2] - Authors: Pang Chunyan (Z0011355), Wang Xueyi (F03125010) [2] Market Overview - In October, Russia's shipment volume was 7.7916 billion barrels, a 20.81% month-on-month decrease; the Middle East's shipment volume was 42.7718 billion barrels, a 0.8% month-on-month increase; the US loading volume was 3.0974 billion barrels, a 44.08% month-on-month decrease. The total shipment volume decreased by 4.15 billion barrels compared to the previous month, a 7.18% month-on-month decline [3]. - The region with the highest total arrivals among major regions was Northeast Asia, with an arrival volume of 28.2371 billion barrels. China's naphtha arrivals last month were 10.4365 billion barrels, a month-on-month increase of 2.4858 billion barrels. Imports from the Middle East accounted for the highest proportion at 47.29%, followed by the Mediterranean, North Africa, and South Asia. The supply volume from Northeast Asia and South Asia decreased last month, while imports from the Middle East, Russia, the Mediterranean, and North Africa all increased [3]. Shipment and Arrival Data | Region | August 2025 | September 2025 | October 2025 | 1 - 10 Month Cumulative | 1 - 10 Month Cumulative YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Russia Shipment | 11.6092 billion barrels | 9.8393 billion barrels | 7.7916 billion barrels | 106.6778 billion barrels | -25.00% | | Middle East Shipment | 45.4791 billion barrels | 42.4327 billion barrels | 42.7718 billion barrels | 435.8288 billion barrels | -5.05% | | US Shipment | 5.6514 billion barrels | 5.5388 billion barrels | 3.0974 billion barrels | 47.8221 billion barrels | -33.00% | | Northeast Asia - China | 1.4226 billion barrels | 1.664 billion barrels | 1.1284 billion barrels | 13.2815 billion barrels | -7.00% | | Middle East - China | 5.5048 billion barrels | 3.4872 billion barrels | 4.9349 billion barrels | 45.0983 billion barrels | 17.93% | | Russia - China | 3.0558 billion barrels | 0.641 billion barrels | 1.1468 billion barrels | 12.8776 billion barrels | -37.53% | | South Asia - China | 2.4323 billion barrels | 1.594 billion barrels | 1.3265 billion barrels | 15.7723 billion barrels | 283.08% | [4]

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Live Hogs [1] - **Hold (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Soybean, Egg [1] Core Views - The soybean futures price has dropped rapidly from its high and is in an adjustment phase. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and the short - term trend of imported soybeans is expected to be slightly stronger [2]. - The Trump administration's potential policy delay on biofuel incentives may change the demand source of biodiesel raw materials, narrowing the price difference between global and US vegetable oils. The strong US diesel market has a marginal spill - over effect on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out [3]. - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, and the strategy is bearish [6]. - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract price of soybean futures has dropped rapidly from the high with a reduction in positions. The mid - week auction of soybeans by Sinograin was fully sold at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed, and short - term attention should be paid to the spot and policy aspects of domestic soybeans [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The Trump administration may delay the policy of reducing biofuel incentives. The development trend of biodiesel is still supported, and the price difference between global and US vegetable oils is expected to narrow. The strong US diesel market has an impact on vegetable oils, and the palm oil price is expected to bottom out. Attention should be paid to the final US biodiesel policy [3]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures follow the US soybeans, and the spot price is weak. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase in 2026, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient with poor crushing profits, and the strategy is to wait for a low - buying opportunity after the callback [5]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure. The import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in October decreased year - on - year. Due to policy changes, sufficient supply expectations, and lackluster demand, the strategy is bearish [6]. Corn - The corn futures are oscillating weakly. The new corn supply in the Northeast is increasing slowly, and the inventory in the northern port is rising. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to decline [7]. Live Hogs - The live hog futures are increasing in positions, and the near - month contract has reached a new low. The spot price is stronger in the south and weaker in the north, and the futures are trading on potential supply pressure. The pig price may have a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The egg futures have a strong rebound, and the spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous decline has ended, and short - position holders can reduce positions to avoid risks [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with sharp intraday movements. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. The market is waiting for the belatedly released September non - farm payroll data to weigh the economic and monetary policy outlook. However, the October data will not be released, the November data is postponed, and the Fed's December meeting resolution still faces a dilemma of lacking data support. Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [1]. 3) Other Key Information - It is reported that the US and Russia secretly drafted a 28 - point peace negotiation framework, which requires Ukraine to cede territory, disarm, and restrict weapons. The discussion of this framework hardly consulted Ukraine or Europe. White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement before the end of November, but Ukraine opposes the agreement [2]. - The US authorities canceled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to be released on December 16th. That is, the Fed will lack the latest non - farm data reference during its December interest rate meeting. Milan said there is a "possibility" of further reducing its balance sheet in the future. Trump's joke about the Treasury Secretary insinuated Powell. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed that officials had significant differences: during the October interest rate cut, several people opposed the cut, and some others were in favor of a cut but also accepted keeping the interest rate unchanged. Several people thought that the interest rate should be cut again in December, and many people thought it should remain unchanged [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Paper pulp: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Sugar: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Apple: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Timber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - 20 - rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, presenting their current market situations, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities while also highlighting some potential trading points and market factors to watch [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is intensively listed and demand is average, pressuring prices, but the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons and an increase of 1.342 million tons compared to the four - year average. The cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with spinning mills having few new orders, reduced operation rates, and weaving mills mainly making rigid purchases. High - count yarn prices were firm and had better transactions. The USDA November report was bearish, with the US cotton production in the 25/26 season significantly increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, compensating for the loss in sugar production, and the sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting the sugar - making season, and due to good weather conditions, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly operating. In October, China's syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large, and there was still pressure on the supply side. The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's estimated production. The sugar price is expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, there were sporadic transactions of apples in cold storage, mainly medium and small fruits, and the price slightly increased. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory in the new season was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. This year's apple quality is poor, but the purchase price is high, and the sentiment of traders and fruit farmers to hold back sales is high, which may affect the inventory - clearing speed. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory - clearing situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price slightly decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price slightly increased, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price increased. Globally, the natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to slowly rise. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, the spot inventory is increasing, the cost support is stable, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR&BR [6] Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to decline. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of the mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a cumulative increase of 63,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.0%, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The domestic port inventory is continuously increasing, the supply is still in a relatively loose situation, the pulp demand continues to be weak, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. After the basis widened and then significantly narrowed, the price continuously declined due to the generally weak fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to increase. The domestic spot price remained weak, and traders' import willingness decreased. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. Traders' pressure has increased, and it is expected that imports will not significantly increase in the short term, and the domestic supply may continue to remain at a low level. The port delivery volume is maintained above 60,000 cubic meters, and the demand supports the price. The original inventory is relatively low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. The low inventory supports the price to some extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]