gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月10日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续反弹，布伦特08合约涨0.72%。周一中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国开启，若 会议延续上周两国元首通话的乐观信号将弱化贸易战对经济及油品需求的负面影响，市场对这一情 景提前定价。在OPEC+7月增产短期利空出尽后，宏观面中美贸易战相关的风险情绪修复、旺季需求 改善、地缘犹动下制裁风险仍存对原油构成支撑，5月以来原油现货基差持续走强。二季度以来原油 库存累增2.1%、成品油库存累增0.8%，总体石油累库1.6%基本延续一季度累库速度。原油暂以反弹 空间有限定调，关注中美经贸磋商能否带动宏观预期的实质性扭转及周末第六轮美伊核会谈进展。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属偏强震荡。近期市场风险偏好修复给金价带来一定压力，但白银受益于商品的反弹向上 突破刷新2012年以来新高。随着关税暂缓三个月截止期的临近，特朗普关税政策将继续主导市场， 俄乌等地缘局势持续紧张,金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走高，伦铜库存流出速度加快，物流持续向美转移，且银价补涨。国内消 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors such as macro - economic data, trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics across different commodities and financial markets. Investors should pay attention to these factors and make investment decisions accordingly [1][19][34] - For most commodities, the market presents a complex situation with both supportive and restrictive factors, and specific investment strategies vary by commodity [3][8][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices rebounded with Brent 08 contract up 6.45%. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations and improved macro - risk sentiment support oil prices after the short - term negative impact of OPEC+ production increase fades [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under a situation of weak supply and demand [20] - **Asphalt**: Supply growth lacks momentum, demand is seasonally increasing, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a strengthening BU crack spread [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Domestic refinery prices are weak, but supply pressure has decreased. The market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations [22] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Gold prices fell on Friday due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data, suppressing Fed rate - cut expectations. Gold is supported at $3000 and a buy - on - dip strategy is considered [2] - **Silver**: After breaking through resistance, silver has more upside potential [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME copper prices retreated, and inventory decreased. The Fed may keep rates unchanged, and the market focuses on US tariff negotiations. Short - term traders should consider stop - losses above 79,500 [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. De - stocking slowed, and the market is cautious about the transition from strong reality to weak expectations. Short - selling on price increases is recommended [4] - **Alumina**: Spot prices declined, and the long - term oversupply situation remains. Short - selling on price increases is advisable, but avoid chasing short positions after the futures discount widens [5] - **Zinc**: Supply is expected to increase while demand weakens. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is maintained [6] - **Lead**: Lead prices are in a narrow range at the bottom. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. A short - selling strategy on price rebounds is recommended [8] - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded significantly. Supply may be tighter than expected, and inventory decreased. Consider reducing short positions or shifting to far - month contracts near 265,000 [9] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices oscillated. Inventory changes show positive market sentiment. The price decline slows, and a light - position participation in the oscillatory rebound is suggested [10] - **Polysilicon**: The market center of gravity moved downward. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices opened higher and then retraced. Supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The market oscillated. Supply is strong and has room for growth, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate with limited rebound space [14] - **Coke**: Prices rebounded significantly. Supply is relatively abundant, and the price rebound space is limited due to inventory pressure [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices rebounded. Supply is still abundant, and the price rebound space is not overly optimistic [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Inventory decreased, but the fundamental improvement is limited. A light - position long - entry to test the rebound sustainability is recommended [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Prices rebounded driven by coking coal. Demand is fair, and supply is decreasing. Observe the sustainability of inventory reduction [18] Chemicals - **Urea**: Futures prices fell sharply last week. Agricultural demand is limited, and production enterprises are accumulating inventory. Short - term support at integer levels should be monitored [23] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are low, and methanol supply is expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the impact of shipping restrictions in Jiangsu should be noted [24] - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and the market sentiment is weak. Enterprises are reducing prices to sell [25] - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: Polyethylene supply is supported by maintenance, but demand is in the off - season. Polypropylene demand is weak, and supply pressure is increasing [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak. The price may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and supply is high [27] - **PX & PTA**: Prices oscillated weakly. Supply increased while downstream demand decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices oscillated downward. Supply increased, and demand may weaken [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand is weak, and bottle - chip may face inventory pressure. Industry production cuts may occur [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Dalian soybean meal increased in volume last week. US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply is becoming more abundant. Attention should be paid to weather changes from June to August [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Domestic soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Weather will be a key factor for soybean prices. Overall, soybean and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The market is influenced by trade relations and North American weather. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate, and in the medium - term, the price center may move up [36] - **Soybean No.1**: Domestic soybean prices rebounded slightly. Weather will be the main factor affecting prices in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: Corn futures prices increased with reduced positions. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [38] - **Pig**: Pig prices decreased over the weekend. Supply is increasing, and short - term prices may continue to fall. Medium - term supply pressure may be reduced by policy [39] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to decline further. Near - month futures should be short - sold, and far - month futures do not have the conditions for a reversal [40] - **Cotton**: US cotton planting progress is slow, and domestic cotton demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [41] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices oscillated. International supply is expected to be negative, and domestic sugar sales are good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices oscillated. Market focus is on new - season production estimates. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [43] - **Timber**: Timber prices are weak. Supply may be limited, but demand is in the off - season. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices oscillated weakly. Inventory is relatively high, and demand is weak. A wait - and - see approach is recommended, and long - entry opportunities on significant price drops should be noted [45] Others - **Container Freight Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price of the Europe line is rising strongly, but the US line may peak. The market should pay attention to trade negotiations, and short - selling should be cautious [19] - **Stock Index**: A - share market is lackluster, and the market is influenced by US non - farm payrolls data and trade negotiations. The market may recover if there are substantial trade progress [46] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures prices increased. The market is relatively stable, and long - entry opportunities after price drops can be considered [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not explicitly rated in a comparable way, but implied to follow the crude oil trend [2] - Asphalt: ☆☆★, the specific meaning of this symbol is not clear from the given content [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market maintains a volatile performance, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help weaken the negative impact of the trade war on the economy. The OPEC+ strategy of seizing market share through rapid production increases makes it difficult for the supply - demand tightness caused by seasonality and geopolitical factors to last [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively weak, and the supply is expected to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] - The supply of asphalt lacks the resilience to increase, the demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] - The domestic LPG price is weak, but the downward space is limited due to the reduction of supply pressure. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC07 contract rose 0.52%. The result of the Sino - US presidential phone call was positive, and the improvement of Sino - US relations may help the economy. The OPEC+ rapid production increase strategy makes the supply - demand tightness unsustainable, and attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is weak, with low ship - bunkering and deep - processing demand. The summer power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa is affected by lower - than - expected temperatures. The supply from Russia to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons in May, and the OPEC+ production increase is expected to increase the supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials. The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil trend under the situation of weak supply and demand [2] Asphalt - The discount of diluted asphalt in June is at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel, and it is estimated to be - $6 per barrel in July. The supply increase is restricted by poor refining and export profits. The demand has a seasonal improvement, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue with a low inventory level, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [3] LPG - The domestic refinery price is weak. The domestic chemical demand has increased recently, and the international price is relatively stable. The supply pressure has been weakened, and the downward space is limited. It maintains a low - level shock under the summer supply pressure [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively introduces the basic concepts, chemical properties, downstream consumption fields, and production processes of propylene, highlighting its importance in the chemical industry and various influencing factors [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basic Concepts - Propylene (C3H6) is a colorless, slightly sweet, flammable gas, belonging to the olefin series. It has specific physical properties such as a melting point of -185°C, a boiling point of -47.68°C, and a low flash point of -108°C. It's usually liquefied for transportation and storage, and is not suitable for long - distance transportation [1] - Chemically, it can undergo addition, oligomerization, coordination polymerization, and substitution reactions, deriving high - value chemicals [2] 2. Downstream Consumption Field Distribution - About 68% of propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is widely used in packaging, automotive, medical, and textile industries. Other significant downstream products include propylene oxide (8%), acrylonitrile (6%), acrylic acid (4%), octanol (4%), and n - butanol (3%). Emerging demands like photovoltaic adhesive films and lithium - battery separators are driving the upgrade of the propylene consumption structure [3] 3. Propylene Production Processes - **Steam Cracking**: Using petroleum hydrocarbons as raw materials, it accounts for about 60% of global propylene production. It's a traditional mainstream method, with high stability and large - scale production capacity, but high energy consumption and dependence on crude oil prices [6] - **Catalytic Cracking (FCC)**: Using heavy oil as raw materials, it produces gasoline, diesel, and propylene as a by - product. It accounts for about 25% of global propylene production, with high flexibility but relatively low propylene purity [7] - **Coal - to - Olefins (CTO/MTO)**: It's a non - petroleum route, suitable for regions rich in coal and short of oil. China is the largest producer. However, it faces environmental pressure and requires optimization of catalyst life and by - product treatment [9] - **Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH)**: Using propane as the raw material, it has a high - purity propylene product (over 99.5%). The global PDH capacity has been growing rapidly, and China is a major market. It depends on stable and low - cost propane supply and can recycle by - product hydrogen [10]

【甲醇】 日内甲醇价格延续减仓震荡态势。煤炭价格低位震荡,内地装置检修重启增加,企业库存上升。沿海烯烃继续 提负,甲醇外采需求量增多，但进口到港量高，港口持续累库,基差延续走弱。供应回升预期下,甲醇市场预 期偏弱震荡,江苏海事船龄限制可能令华东港口货源趋紧,关注实质影响。 (尿素) 尿素期货价格维持偏弱走势。农需处于麦收空档期，随着夏季高氮肥生产的收尾,以及出口政策的明朗，市场 情绪转弱，生产企业持续累库，工厂让利，现货走低。装置检修量上升，负荷喀有下降，但依旧偏高，短期关 注整数关口支撑。 (聚烯烃) | Million | 国技斯员 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月06日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | なな女 | 聚丙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 班科 | なな女 | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | РХ | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | ★☆☆ | 乙二醇 | ★★ ...

国产大豆减仓价格小幅反弹。今日购销双向竞价交易专场全部成交。下周国产大豆市场有竞价采购专场，采购 顶价为4200元/吨,2024年国产大豆。短期东北产区天气总体对作物有利。进口大豆方面由于中美领导人通话, 给市场带来了乐观的预期，美豆表现偏强。中期海外大豆方面会受天气驱动，天气会成为影响价格的主要因 素，今年美国大豆平衡表同比偏紧，而从NOAA未来的天气预期看，7-8月份天气距平表现为降水少，温度高的特 点。国产大豆中期也逐步进入生长期,预计天气是驱动价格波动的主要因素。 【大豆&豆粕】 | | | | V V V & SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ☆☆ ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年06月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | 女女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | 女女女 | | | 鐵 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所走强。 本周螺纹表需环比大幅下滑，产量同步回落，去库节奏放缓。热卷需求回落，产量继续上升，库存开始累 积。铁水产量逐步回落，整体仍处于相对高位，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建改善幅度有限，制造业景气度放 缓，地产销售复苏缺乏持续性，新开工、施工继续大幅下滑，美国继续提高关税冲击钢材出口 ...

| Millio | > 国技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月06日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金价震荡,白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行新一轮会 谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据普遍偏弱后聚焦今晚 非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空间。 ★关税-①日媒：美国在降低对日本的额外对等关税方面表现出灵活性； ②消息人士：美国和印度谈判代表 可能最终敲定关税削减和市场准入问题,达成临时协议； 3特朗普：将与德国达成一项良好的贸易协议。 ★ 克里姆林宫：（关于美国总统特朗普与普京通话）双方未就任何面对面会晤达成任何协议。特朗普 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月06日 隔夜金价震荡,白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行 新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据普 遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价大幅波动，持续去库下伦铜短线突破9800美元，到目前美盘铜价已基本回撤隔夜涨幅。中 美领导人对话缓和贸易谈判气氛，美国4月进口额大幅下降；最新一期当周初请失业金人数显示失业 及人力成本压力升温。LME0-3月现货升水走扩至90美元,关注国内现货供求,沪铜夜盘跟涨、填补 清明缺口，昨日上海铜升水90元，广东贴水15元。前期空头择机换月，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。昨日铝锭社库减少1.5万吨，铝棒增加0.2万吨，去库速度有所放缓。需求面临 季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,中美制造业PMI均处于荣枯线之下,抢出口消费前置后关注强现实是 否向弱预期转换。沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置存在阻力，逢高偏空参与。 (氧化 ...

| 《八》 国经期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月05日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价回落，SC07合约日内跌0.83%。有消息显示沙特希望OPEC+在8月、9月仍以41.1万桶/天的速度增 产,并将7月销往亚洲的轻质原油官价升贴水下调20每分/桶,其抢占市场份额的意图愈发明显。此外,此前加 拿大野火引发的供应中断已在周三部分恢复,上周EIA汽油和精炼油库存均超预期增加暗示需求无法匹配炼厂供 应的增加。此前我们谈到OPEC+抢占市场份额策略下的快速增产行为令源自季节性及地缘犹动的供需 ...