| SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年12月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | 女女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡回落。本周螺纹表需继续回落，产量太幅下滑，库存继续去化。热卷供需双降，库存缓慢下降，压力仍有持缓 解。铁水产量继续回落，供应压力逐步缓解，下游承接能力不足，钢厂利润依然欠佳，后期高炉继续减产可能性较大，关注唐 山等地环保限产持续性。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基建增速持续回落，制造业PM 边际 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Operation Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆ - Plastic: ☆☆☆ - Styrene: ☆☆☆ - PTA: ☆☆☆ - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ - Methanol: ☆☆☆ - PVC: ☆☆☆ - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Different chemical products in the industry are facing various market situations including supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and inventory changes. Each product's market trend is influenced by factors such as production capacity, device maintenance, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of propylene, plastic, and polypropylene declined. Propylene inventory is low but transaction prices are falling. Polyethylene has a weak fundamental situation, and polypropylene's supply support is weakening due to restart of some devices [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price increased slightly. The market sentiment improved due to expected device maintenance, but there is still pressure from high arrival expectations and weak demand. Styrene is expected to trade in a range [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are slightly weak. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to recover. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and is expected to accumulate inventory. Short - fiber's long - term supply - demand is good, while bottle - chip has over - capacity issues [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices are falling and may fluctuate in a range. Urea prices are down, with overall loose supply - demand and expected range - bound trading [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a inventory - accumulation mode and may trade in a low - level range. Caustic soda is in a downward trend with high supply and weak demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is under supply pressure and continues to decline. Glass prices are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer long/short trend, with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View - Overnight, the US weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far below expectations and hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market. A December interest rate cut is largely priced in, and precious metals are mainly in a volatile state. Precious metals as a whole should not be chased higher before gold breaks through the previous high resistance. There is a supply gap for platinum this year, and the supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum outperforming palladium in terms of trend. Tonight, attention should be paid to the US September PCE data [1] - The White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said the Fed should cut interest rates at next week's meeting, predicting a 25 - basis - point cut, and hopes to "bring interest rates much lower" in the long run [2] - The World Gold Council stated that gold prices may fluctuate within a range next year, and a continued strong performance is not ruled out [2] - US Trade Representative Greer said Trump is considering withdrawing from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement next year, and the possibility of breaking the tripartite tie is not excluded [2] 3. Other Key Information - Red stars represent a predicted trending up, green stars represent a predicted trending down. One star means being bullish/bearish, indicating a driving force for rising/falling but poor operability on the market. Two stars mean holding long/short positions, with a clearer rising/falling trend and the market situation fermenting. Three stars represent an even clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. White stars mean the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the market and it is advisable to wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Doupo: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Palm oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Corn: ★★★, suggesting a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Live pigs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products in the market shows different trends, with some products affected by supply - demand relationships, policies, weather, and other factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [3][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Douyi - The main contract of Douyi shows a reduction in positions and a price decline. The spot price of domestic soybeans is stable and firm. The price of US soybeans is affected by South American weather and US soybean exports, and is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy and spot performance of domestic soybeans [2] Soybeans & Doupo - The price of Dalian Doupo futures fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to the December USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report. The 05 contract has not broken through the upper edge of the box. Whether it can break through upward in the medium - term depends on US soybean exports and the impact of the La Nina weather in South America. The strategy is to observe whether it can break through upward and look for long - entry opportunities later [3] Douyou & Palm oil - The market expects that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in November is still increasing, with high inventory pressure. If the supply - side production reduction continues, the signal of a phased price bottom will be prominent, but the rebound strength is limited. The medium - term of Douyou also needs to pay attention to policy changes. The domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound, and short - term attention should be paid to the fundamentals of the oil market [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The Caisi market continues its weak trend, and the external rapeseed price is under pressure. The production of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is estimated to be higher than expected, and the supply of the Caisi market has temporarily eased after Australian rapeseed arrives at the port. The domestic demand for Caisi is still weak, and the futures price of Caisi will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures C2601 contract rose 0.97% after rising and then falling, but the subsequent contracts lack upward momentum. The supply - demand mismatch in the corn market still exists. Future attention should be paid to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The 01 contract should be observed first, and the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pullback [7] Live pigs - Live pig futures are running weakly, and the 03 contract has hit a new low. The inventory of breeding sows in November continued to decline slightly month - on - month. The southern curing will gradually start, and the supply side has the pressure of fattening pigs for secondary fattening to be sold. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg futures are slightly weak, and the spot price in most parts of the country has declined. The current supply pressure is high, and the forward - looking inventory decline expectation has ended. The 01 contract has a premium over the spot, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the near - term contract [9]

隔夜美糖震荡。巴西方面,虽然今年甘蔗压榨量和出糖率下降,但是制糖比例有所增加，弥补了食糖产量损失,巴西的食糖产 量将继续维持高位。北半球方面,印度和泰国开榨,由于天气条件较好,预计食糖产量同比增加，关注后续生产情况。国内方 面,郑糖弱势运行。10月份我国糖浆进口量同比下降，但是食糖进口较多，供给端依然存在一定压力。从交易逻辑来看，市场 的交易重心转向下榨季的估产。天气方面，三李废广西降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，目前广母甘蔗植 被指数同比有所增加，25/26榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较好，关注后续生产情况。综合来看，预计糖价将维持弱势。 (苹果) 期价高位震荡。现货方面,主流报价持稳。山东产区成交不多，西北产区冷库客商包装自有货源发市场为主,冷库成交不多。 本周冷库出货速度比上周稍有放缓，批发市场到货平稳，价格维持稳定。库存方面,卓创的数据显示，截至12月5日,新季度全 国冷库苹果库存为724.38万吨，同比下降13.24%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易逻辑转向需求端。今年苹果质量较差、但是收 购价格较高,贸易商和果农惜售的情绪较高,可能会影响去库速度,因此后期的去库情况是未来的主要交易点。综 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [2][7] Report Core View - The oil market has been dominated by positive news recently, and short-term oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend [3] - The fuel oil market has continued to be weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount. The high-sulfur fuel oil supply pattern remains loose, while the low-sulfur fuel oil is under continuous pressure. Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from overseas refinery resumption and the improvement of supply and demand structure by shipping and power generation demand [4] - The overall supply of asphalt has slightly increased, but the weekly shipment volume has decreased, the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down, and the BU trend is under pressure [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The PCE data to be released tonight is the only inflation guidance before the Fed's December meeting [3] - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan has stalled, weakening the market's expectation of Russian oil export recovery [3] - After the Ukrainian drone attack on the CPC Black Sea facilities, Kazakhstan's oil and natural gas condensate production dropped to 1.9 million barrels per day, lower than the November average [3] - OPEC's oil production in November decreased due to the shutdown of some member states, and its supply was further below the target and slightly lower than the October output [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market has been weak recently, with a weakening crack spread and spot premium/discount, and weak market sentiment [4] - Before the substantial progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the geopolitical risk premium of high-sulfur fuel oil is difficult to subside, and the subsequent Russian resource shipments may slow down. However, the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East will increase shipments and partially offset the reduction caused by geopolitical factors [4] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is mainly disturbed by the unplanned maintenance of overseas refineries. Although the return of the Banyan refinery and the delay of the Azur refinery's resumption have relieved the short-term supply pressure, it is still under pressure due to the weakening of refined oil cracking [4] Asphalt - Recently, some refineries such as Hebei Xinhai, Wenzhou Zhongyou, and Shandong Shengxing have stopped production or switched to producing residual oil, while Ke石化 and Liaohe Petrochemical have increased production, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply [5] - The weekly shipment volume is less than 400,000 tons, a 3.4% decrease from the previous week, at a low level in the same period in the past four years [5] - The social inventory has decreased slightly from the previous week, and the year-on-year increase has gradually expanded since the inflection point of turning from decrease to increase in late October. The refinery inventory has increased slightly from the previous week, and the overall commercial inventory destocking rhythm has significantly slowed down [5]

周度期货价量总览 商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 961.04 0.75% 18.31% 0.96% 1.50 0.07 1.55 白银 13,687.00 7.54% 36.28% 5.80% 5.14 0.24 42.62 铜 92,780.00 6.12% 13.61% 28.54% 0.75 0.42 150.71 镍 117,790.00 0.61% 12.02% -2.23% 0.93 0.08 2.83 铝 22,345.00 3.40% 10.83% -4.02% 0.87 0.43 37.72 锡 317,500.00 4.08% 16.55% -0.60% 4.58 0.35 8.97 锌 23,305.00 3.92% 9.95% 36.02% 1.29 0.57 8.48 铅 17,290.00 1.17% 9.05% 5.67% 0.86 0.27 2.19 工业硅 8,805.00 -3.56% 24.47% -8.74% 0.93 -0.26 3.87 螺纹钢 3,157.00 1.28% 9.00% -13 ...

油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜 追高。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 (原油) 【铜】 隔夜铜价纪录位置震荡，LME现货升水缩至50美元，美伦溢价400美元以上。昨日国内现铜强跟涨到 91245元，上海升水扩至170元，精废价差扩至5000元以上，而周内SMM社库微减100吨。国内现货 信号及仓量跟踪,短线支持铜价。多单依托MA5均线持有,关注接近记录水平的量价表现。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market shows a mixed trend with supply and demand changes and policy expectations affecting the price movement [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply-demand relationship and is expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by downstream demand and supply, with short-term price trends showing some characteristics [4][5] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are influenced by factors such as raw material prices and demand, and their price trends need further observation [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rise in shock today. The apparent demand for thread decreased, production declined significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and inventory decreased slowly with pressure remaining [2] - Iron ore production decreased, downstream demand was insufficient, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts and supply pressure will gradually ease [2] - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels [2] - Spot prices remained firm during the off-season, and there were still expectations of favorable policies at the macro level. The futures market is expected to continue its shock upward trend with possible fluctuations [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened slightly today. Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory continued to increase and approached the annual high [3] - The apparent demand for steel weakened, production declined further, and iron ore demand is expected to weaken further [3] - The macro environment was positive, and there were expectations of policy support ahead of the December important meeting. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] Coke - The coke futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded slightly [4] - Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream procurement was mainly on-demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average [4] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [4] - The coke futures price was at a premium, and prices are expected to continue to rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a strong shock trend today. There were expectations of downstream replenishment, and prices rebounded [5] - Coking coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average, and transaction prices mainly decreased. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total coking coal inventory decreased slightly month-on-month [5] - The supply of carbon elements was abundant, downstream iron ore production decreased seasonally, and demand for raw materials remained resilient. Steel mills had a strong willingness to lower raw material prices [5] - The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and prices are expected to be dragged down in the short term due to high Mongolian coal imports [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market rose in shock today. Affected by the futures market rebound, manganese ore spot prices increased [6] - The follow-up impact of Ghana's shipping volume needs to be monitored. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. If Ghana's supply decreases significantly, prices may rise in the short term [6] - Iron ore production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory increased slowly [6] - Silicon manganese supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures market rose in shock today. There were increased expectations of coal supply guarantee, which led to expectations of lower electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - Iron ore production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was small. Metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand remained resilient [7] - Silicon iron supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the support at the bottom needs to be observed [7]