Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 1. Overall Commodity Market Conditions - The commodity market is currently dominated by short - term signals this week, with the factor intensity of the energy and chemical sector decreasing, and the black and agricultural product sectors showing an upward trend. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in the cross - section, while the energy sector is relatively weak. [4] - Gold's time - series momentum has declined, the trading volume of silver has changed little, and the divergence at both ends of the cross - section has narrowed. [4] 2. Sector - Specific Analysis Non - ferrous Sector - The position - holding factor of the non - ferrous sector has increased marginally, the divergence of cross - sectional momentum has narrowed, tin is strong, and alumina is weak in the cross - section. [4] - The non - ferrous sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.13, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.54, a term structure of 0.99, and a position - holding weight of 1.1. [7] Black Sector - The position - holding volume of coking coal and coke in the black sector remains low, but the short - term momentum in the time - series has rebounded. [4] - The black sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.42, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.18, a term structure of 0.29, and a position - holding weight of 0.79. [7] Energy Sector - The short - term momentum factor of the energy sector has declined, and the chemical sector is at the strong end of the cross - section. [4] - The energy sector has a time - series momentum of 0.02, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.74, a term structure of - 0.6, and a position - holding weight of 0.06. [7] Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals has narrowed, and the long - term momentum of soybean oil is lower than that of soybean meal. [4] - The agricultural product sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.09, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.05, a term structure of 0.17, and a position - holding weight of - 0.16. [7] Precious Metal Sector - The precious metal sector has a time - series momentum of 0.37 and a position - holding weight of - 1.07. [7] Equity Index Sector - The equity index sector has a cross - sectional momentum of 0.49, a term structure of 0.68, and a position - holding weight of 2.15. [7] 3. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors Analysis Methanol - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.03%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.38%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short - term. [6] - The import arrival volume of methanol releases a short - term signal, the supply side is neutral to bearish; the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream manufacturers has decreased, the demand side is bearish; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month, the inventory side has turned neutral; the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor of methanol releases a long - term signal, and the spread side is neutral to bullish. [6] Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.16%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.13%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. [10] - The capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises is flat compared with last week, the supply side is neutral; the transaction area of commercial housing in second - tier cities has increased, the demand side is neutral to bullish; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises has increased from a decrease, the bullish strength of the inventory side has weakened and turned neutral; the loss of producing float glass from thermal coal has increased slightly, and the profit side is neutral to bearish. [10] Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.11%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.11%, and the comprehensive factor decreased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned bullish. [11][13] - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil and the arrival volume at Tianjin Port have all decreased, and the supply - side signal has turned from bearish to bullish. The consumption volume of imported sintering ore powder by steel mills and the proportion of lump ore in the furnace have increased, the bearish feedback on the demand side has weakened, and the signal has turned neutral. The inventory of iron ore at major ports across the country has accumulated, the bullish feedback on the inventory side has weakened, and the signal remains neutral. The freight rate and spot price have increased slightly, the spread side has turned to bullish feedback, and the signal remains neutral. [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.06%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.76%, the inventory factor increased by 0.83%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.7%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.56%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned neutral. [13] - The price of domestic lead concentrates from SMM has decreased, the proportion of waste battery prices in the price of recycled refined lead has increased, and the supply - side signal has turned bullish. The cumulative registered and non - registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures have increased, the bearish feedback on the inventory side has further strengthened, and the signal remains bearish. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has widened, and the spread - side signal has turned bullish. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The U.S. postponed the release of September's non - farm payrolls, which increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value. The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data will not be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data for reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials have significant differences in their recent statements, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President said there was still room for interest rate adjustment, increasing the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the U.S. proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, but some key terms were opposed by European allies, and multi - party negotiations will continue. Last week, NVIDIA's strong earnings initially supported the U.S. stock market, but then the U.S. stocks significantly corrected, and concerns about the bubble still exist. In the short term, there are a lot of long and short news in the market, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - **Ukraine - Russia Conflict**: U.S. and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress"; Zelensky said the U.S. peace plan was expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe proposed a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan. U.S. and Ukraine are discussing Zelensky's visit to the U.S. this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary said Trump was pressuring Russia to end the conflict and was confident in the progress of the peace process. Trump thought November 27 was a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement [2] 3.2 Fed's Attitude - **Interest Rate Policy**: Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term; Collins thinks it is necessary to be cautious about a December rate cut but expects further rate cuts in the future; Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is crucial; Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" with inflation still high and the labor market generally balanced [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided text. The report mainly offers data on various financial products' prices, price changes, implied volatilities (IV), and related quantile information over specific time - periods. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report covers multiple financial products including 50ETF, various 300ETFs (Shanghai, Shenzhen), Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 500ETFs, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF,科创50ETF,科创板50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index [1][6][9][17][26][33][43][52][57][69][74][82]. - The current month's contracts for most products are 2 days from expiration, while for 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index, they are 19 days from expiration [1][6][9][17][26][33][43][52][57][69][74][82]. 3.2 Price and Price Change - For 50ETF, on 2025/11/24, the price was 3.094 with a - 0.23% change from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai 300ETF had a price of 4.557 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.15% change [6]. - Shenzhen 300ETF's price was 4.710 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.06% change [9]. - Shanghai CSI 500ETF's price was 6.970 on 2025/11/24 with a - 2.79% change [17]. - Shenzhen CSI 500ETF's price was 2.787 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.72% change [26]. - ChiNext ETF's price was 2.908 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.14% change [33]. - Shenzhen 100ETF's price was 3.269 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.09% change [43]. - 科创50ETF's price was 1.360 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.67% change [52]. - 科创板50ETF's price was 1.317 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.69% change [57]. - 300 Index's price was 4448.048 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.12% change [69]. - 1000 Index's price was 7156.409 on 2025/11/24 with a 1.26% change [74]. - Shanghai 50 Index's price was 2950.562 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.18% change [82]. 3.3 Implied Volatility (IV) - 50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 12.79% (current month), 14.13% (next month) [1]. - Shanghai 300ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 15.05% (current month), 15.91% (next month) [6]. - Shenzhen 300ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.58% (current month), 16.34% (next month) [9]. - Shanghai CSI 500ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.76% (current month), 20.41% (next month) [17]. - Shenzhen CSI 500ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 18.28% (current month), 20.69% (next month) [26]. - ChiNext ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 25.93% (current month), 27.54% (next month) [33]. - Shenzhen 100ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 21.61% (current month), 19.15% (next month) [43]. - 科创50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 30.31% (current month), 29.20% (next month) [52]. - 科创板50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 27.58% (current month), 29.29% (next month) [57]. - 300 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.77% (current month), 17.42% (next month) [69]. - 1000 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 20.26% (current month), 21.12% (next month) [74]. - Shanghai 50 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 14.76% (current month), 48.90% (next month) [82]. 3.4 IV Quantiles - For 50ETF, the current - month IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year are provided, such as 28.90% and 22.40% in the past 1 - year [1]. - Similar IV quantile data for other products like Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, etc., are also presented [6][9]. 3.5 Skew Index - The skew index for each product's main contract month is given, for example, 105.84 for 50ETF on the current day [5]. - Other products like Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF also have their respective skew index data [8][14]. 3.6 Other Information - There are also data on the term structure of IV, intraday trends of at - the - money (ATM) IV for different months, option smile curves, price and position - volume PCR trends, and implied volatility and trading volume trends for each product [3][4][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of overall range - bound fluctuations, with policy expectations providing support but weak demand restricting the upside [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly range - bound, with its fundamentals becoming marginally looser [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak - side oscillations [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a state of oscillation, with the bottom - support expectations for silicomanganese shifting downward and the bottom - support strength of ferrosilicon facing a test [7][8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market rebounded today. Thread apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered, production rose slightly, and inventory started to fall. Steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. Policy expectations support the market, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market showed a strong - side oscillation today, and the basis has weakened recently. Global iron ore shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period but are still stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, with a relatively larger drop in Australia and its shipments to China. Shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high. The domestic arrival volume rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Iron ore fundamentals are becoming marginally looser, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production has been slightly decreasing. Coke inventory increased slightly, with downstream procurement on an as - needed basis and little change in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream hot - metal production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price oscillated weakly during the day. Coking - coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were average, and transaction prices mainly declined. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream hot - metal production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The coking - coal futures price is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical - coke prices. On the demand side, hot - metal production has rebounded to a high level. Silicomanganese weekly production decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. Spot manganese - ore prices showed mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom - support level has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices. On the demand side, hot - metal production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From November 17th to November 21st, the US September non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new employment but a higher unemployment rate. The US dollar index rose weekly, and global and domestic stocks, bonds, and commodities all declined to varying degrees. In general, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > commodities > stocks. Investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts and the increasing concerns about AI, global major stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, and emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The September non - farm data failed to eliminate the differences among Fed officials, increasing the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds declined, and the yield of the 10 - year US bond fell by 8BP to 4.06% weekly. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > national bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The game between the large - scale fiscal stimulus policy and the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy caused market concerns. The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The US dollar index rose 0.87% weekly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The US proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible framework agreement between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices. Precious metal prices continued to consolidate at high levels. The prices of major agricultural products rose, and non - ferrous metal prices generally declined [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Declined, and the Bond Market Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: Affected by the overseas market, major broad - based A - share indexes generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. In terms of sectors, power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, etc. saw large declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From November 17th to November 21st, the central bank's net investment in the open market was 43.4 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively tight. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > national bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals had the largest decline [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Release of US Inflation Data - Recently, investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuela geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting the energy market this week. The energy market is generally under pressure due to factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand imbalance, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has made progress, and the Fed's wavering attitude towards a December interest rate cut has pressured crude oil and other risk assets. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, so the previous bearish strategy should be continued [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is dragged down by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited impact of geopolitical factors on Russian exports and high - level exports from the Middle East to Asia during the off - peak power generation season. The demand for feedstock in China is expected to gradually decline. Although the US sanctions on Russia on November 21 may cause short - term fluctuations, the medium - term supply surplus will suppress the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil was previously supported by unstable overseas refineries, but the partial restart of the Azur refinery on November 29 and the possible increase in supply from the Dangote RFGC device maintenance at the end of December will increase the subsequent pressure [3] Asphalt - The price in the northern market remains stable supported by some refineries switching to produce residual oil and the terminal project rush - demand, while the price in the southern market has been declining due to abundant resource supply and refinery shipment pressure, narrowing the north - south price difference. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a low level in the same period in the past four years. In the short term, the main contract on the trading floor is supported at 3,000 yuan/ton, but the weak crude oil trend still suppresses the asphalt market sentiment, and with the expectation of supply increase, the asphalt is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [4]