研究所 延续下跌，进口成本端仍有支撑 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年11月28日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 纸浆期货主力合约SP2601延续下跌，跌势略有放缓。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至11月27日，进口针叶浆周均价5464元/吨，周度环比下跌1.85%，由涨转跌；进口阔叶浆周均价4390元/吨，周度环比下跌 0.05%，由涨转跌。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 卓创资讯 国信期货 6 二、基本面分析：1-10月纸浆累计进口量增加 研究所 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年10月，我国进口纸浆261.8万吨，进口金额为1531.7百万美元，平均单价为585.06美元/吨。1月至10月 累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加4.8%、-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current apple futures main contract AP2601 is in a high - level oscillation. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, the cold - storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, and the export volume in October increased month - on - month. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase, and the prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage. The futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [7][11][15][19][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The apple futures main contract AP2601 is in high - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.2935 billion tons, and the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.38%, 7.84 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.40%. The cold - storage inventory in Shandong production area is basically completed, with only a very small increase in individual cold - storages, mainly other varieties such as Cream Fuji and Venus [11][37] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - **Cold - storage Shipment Volume**: As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and the de - inventory rate is 0.87%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong production area is 55.61%, with a weekly decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi is 53.89%, with a weekly decrease of 0.67 percentage points [16][37] - **Export Volume**: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The listing time of new - season apples is postponed, resulting in a significant year - on - year decrease in the export volume of new - season apples in October [19] - **Substitute Fruit Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the content - **Origin Spot Price**: As of November 28, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. The off - cold - storage transactions are basically completed. The remaining acquisition market is for a very small amount of tail - end products, mainly for market distribution after the transaction. The cold - storage transactions are for some medium - and small - sized fruits. The price of 65 - 70 fruits of cold - storage farmers is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty, and that of 75 fruits of merchants is about 3.0 yuan per catty. The transactions of first - and second - grade goods above 80 have not started yet. The intended transaction price of first - and second - grade farmer's slice - red apples above 80 is 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price range of striped apples is 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty; the asking price of merchants' goods is relatively high, with the intended price of first - and second - grade goods above 80 being 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty (not yet traded, and the cold - storage quotation is calculated by adding 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per catty of profit to the inventory cost) [33] 3.4 Market Outlook - The festival boost effect of Christmas and New Year's Day is obvious, and the substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase due to quality problems. The new - season apple production reduction pattern is set, which provides strong support for the cost side. The prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage, and the futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [37]

研究所 美豆区间震荡 马棕油止跌反弹 ----国信期货油脂油料周报 2025年11月28日 研究所 目录 CONTENTS 1 蛋白粕市场分析 2 油脂市场分析 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 蛋白粕市场分析 一、蛋白粕市场分析 研究所 本周行情回顾：本周CBOT大豆低位区间震荡，期价从上周触及的17个月高位回落后在1100之上窄幅震荡。美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯周一表示，特朗普政府预计将在两周内宣布美国农户 援助计划，并达成中国大豆采购协议，但是她没有提供更多细节。当被问及中国购买美国大豆的承诺时，罗林斯表示，美国将和中国在本周或下周签署协议，补充说她相信中国会履行其采购 承诺。她补充说，种种迹象表明，中国采购承诺依然有效，他们确实会订购1200万吨大豆。如果采购订单在12月底之前下达，这些大豆会在明年初交付。美豆在1100美分/蒲式耳之上震荡。 市场仍在关注中国采购美豆的进展。交易商表示，自周二以来已有至少10船美国大豆被采购。这对美豆有所支撑。与之相比，国内连粕市场震荡走高，前几个交易日市场跟随美豆低位窄幅震 荡，据巴西《圣保罗页报》周三报道，中国禁止6.9万吨巴西大豆入境，因为从货舱内发现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

Industry Investment Rating No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views - In 2025, China's economic recovery slowed down, with a reduced drag from the real estate sector. The domestic economy faced issues such as unbalanced employment, low consumer income expectations, and sluggish consumption growth. The economic policy shifted towards new - quality productivity to improve economic quality. Externally, Trump's tariff war hindered global trade, and geopolitical issues in some regions persisted. In 2026, domestic economic policies will focus more on the domestic cycle, aiming to repair the balance sheets of residents and private enterprises and stabilize market confidence [2][79][80]. - Different stock indices have different outlooks. The sentiment scores of IH, IF, IC, and IM are 1.7, 7.6, - 7.2, and 15.3 respectively, indicating that IH is slightly optimistic, IF is relatively optimistic, IC is slightly pessimistic, and IM is quite optimistic [3][82]. - Interest rates have shown a trend of first tightening and then loosening. In 2026, as the economy moves towards new - quality productivity, the role of price - based tools will be reduced, interest rates will remain low, and government bonds will shift from high - level to volatile [4][83]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Stock Market Structural Bull Market - After the registration - system reform, the supply of the domestic stock market increased significantly. In 2025, the domestic stock market showed an index bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high of 4034.08 on November 13. The number of listed companies increased slightly, with a net increase of 32 compared to the previous year [5]. - From the perspective of the market cycle, the domestic stock market experienced a decline in 2023 - 2024 and then rebounded in 2024 - 2025. After April 2025, with the implementation of measures to stabilize the stock market, the market gradually recovered, and trading volume remained stable [12]. 2. Gradual Economic Recovery 2.1 Overall Economic Recovery - Since 2023, China's economy has gradually recovered after the normalization of the COVID - 19 situation, but the recovery strength has been weak. In 2025, the GDP growth rate showed a certain degree of fluctuation, with the first - quarter growth rate at 5.4%, the second - quarter at 5.2%, and the third - quarter at 4.8% [16]. - There were differences in the recovery of different industries. The growth rate of the primary industry showed a slight upward trend, the secondary industry gradually declined, and the tertiary industry had a relatively good recovery effect [18][19]. 2.2 Significant Difference between Domestic Demand and Foreign Trade - Exports increased in 2025, with a peak of $3285.65 billion in September. Imports slightly decreased, and the cumulative year - on - year in 2025 was negative, indicating weak domestic demand [21]. - Domestic consumption was persistently sluggish. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales fluctuated, and the year - on - year growth rate first increased and then decreased in 2025 [25]. - The number of new urban jobs continued to increase, with 1057000 new jobs in September 2025. The urban survey unemployment rate was relatively stable, generally between 5% - 5.2% [26]. 2.3 Economic Structural Imbalance - Extreme Differences between Upstream and Downstream - Since 2021, due to factors such as the overseas epidemic, supply - chain disruptions, and domestic supply - side reforms, the prices of upstream industrial products soared, putting pressure on downstream industries. After 2021, the growth rate of industrial product prices gradually declined, and in 2025, the negative growth rate of PPI narrowed [32][34]. - Production materials and living materials showed different trends. Production materials entered a deflationary stage, while the price of living materials PPI gradually declined. There were also significant differences in PPI within production materials, with upstream industries showing extreme price increases and mid - downstream industries having poor price transmission [35][39]. - CPI showed different trends in different periods. In 2025, most months had negative values, and core CPI improved in the second half of the year, indicating that the consumer side was gradually improving [45][46]. 3. Strong Monetary Policy and Active Fiscal Policy - From October 2023 to October 2024, the central bank adopted a series of monetary policy measures, including adjusting the deposit - reserve ratio, interest rates, and conducting open - market operations. In September 2024, the monetary policy intensity increased significantly, including significant reserve - requirement ratio cuts, interest - rate cuts, and the introduction of new policy tools [53]. - The real - estate market has experienced a decline since 2021. In 2025, the sales area of commercial housing continued to decline, and residents' willingness to invest in real estate was low, which dragged down the economic recovery [55]. - In 2024 - 2025, the domestic monetary policy remained loose, with abundant liquidity and a downward - trending interest rate. The yield of government bonds showed a certain degree of volatility, and the weighted average interest rate of financial - institution RMB loans continued to decline [61][62]. - The new RMB loans showed large fluctuations from 2020 to 2025, with a strong dependence on policies. The growth rate of the broad - money supply M2 decreased in 2024 and rebounded slightly in 2025 [72][74]. 4. New - Quality Productivity in the Economy, Both Stocks and Bonds Turn Volatile - Different industries have different outlooks. The banking sector in the financial industry is neutral, the consumer industry is pessimistic, the industrial industry is neutral, the infrastructure and public - utility industries are optimistic, and the information - technology industry is optimistic [81]. - Different stock indices have different sentiment scores. IH is slightly optimistic, IF is relatively optimistic, IC is slightly pessimistic, and IM is quite optimistic [3][82]. - In 2026, as the economy moves towards new - quality productivity, interest rates will remain low, and government bonds will shift from high - level to volatile [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The supply of coniferous pulp is decreasing due to production cuts by major global coniferous pulp mills, while the increase in broadleaf pulp production makes it difficult to relieve the supply pressure, leading to a continuous differentiation between coniferous and broadleaf pulp. Geopolitical factors have reduced imports from North America, but increased imports from Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Uruguay have supplemented the supply. Overall, China's total pulp imports are at a historically high level. The pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend since February this year, and attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market. Waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [2][3][14] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In 2025, the pulp futures generally showed a downward trend from a high level. From January to October, it dropped significantly due to increased wood pulp imports, frequent macro disturbances, and poor profitability of downstream paper mills, resulting in weak demand. From October to the present, there has been a slight rebound as the traditional peak season for the paper industry arrived in October, new production capacity of tissue paper enterprises was continuously released, and pulp demand slightly recovered [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis Import Volume - China has a high degree of external dependence on pulp, especially for bleached softwood pulp. In 2025, from January to October, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 4.8% and -2.0% respectively compared with the same period last year. Specifically, the cumulative import volume of coniferous pulp was 712.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%, and that of broadleaf pulp was 1382.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [2][13] European Port Inventory - In September 2025, the total inventory of European ports decreased by 4.39% month-on-month and 0.49% year-on-year. Except for the inventory in Spanish ports remaining flat month-on-month, the inventories in ports of the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Germany, and Italy decreased by 1.36%, 2.17%, 6.87%, and 9.55% respectively month-on-month [19] Domestic Major Port Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total pulp inventory in Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 201.04 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.71%, with the growth rate narrowing by 2.51 percentage points [22] Pulp Consumption - In recent years, the global apparent consumption of pulp has been stable at 1.8 billion tons. In the long run, the global pulp supply and demand are basically balanced. Wastepaper pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31%, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21%; non-wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% [24] Downstream Paper Mills - The operating load rate of downstream paper mills has decreased, the profitability of the paper industry has improved poorly, and they purchase raw materials based on rigid demand. High-price transactions in the pulp market are not smooth. As of November 20, the weekly average price of Silver Star spot was 5560 yuan/ton, and the current gross profit margin was below the break-even line [29] Domestic Market Prices - As of November 20, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5567 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.07 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4392 yuan/ton, a 1.62% increase from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.05 percentage points. The downstream paper mills' operating rate has decreased, and high raw material prices have suppressed their purchasing enthusiasm. The domestic broadleaf pulp supply is abundant, and the price increase is weak. The spot market price of imported broadleaf pulp is running weakly [34] 3. Future Outlook - China's high external dependence on pulp remains unchanged, and the import volume and inventory data are similar to the previous analysis. The supply situation of coniferous and broadleaf pulp continues to differentiate, and the pulp futures market has been in an adjustment trend. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the market, and waiting for the recovery of demand, the market is expected to bottom out and rebound [36][37]

Report Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - Globally in the 2025/26 cotton season, supply increases with major producers maintaining high levels, consumption is expected to see slight growth, and trade policies and Fed's interest - rate cuts will impact cotton prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely [2][55]. - In the domestic market for the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply significantly increases, new - cotton costs change little, textile enterprise inventories are at a healthy level, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [3][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **ICE Cotton Futures**: The annual trend is divided into two stages. From the beginning of the year to the end of September, it was in a wide - range weak oscillation. From October to the end of the year, it further weakened due to macro - negatives and weak fundamentals [5][6]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures**: The annual trend has four stages. It oscillated and then dropped rapidly from the beginning of the year to early April, rebounded from mid - April to mid - July, oscillated from mid - July to late September, and weakened again from late September to the end of the year [7][8]. 2. International Market Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand situation is slightly looser. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 63.9%, up 1.3 percentage points from 2024/25. Production rises by 300,000 tons, consumption increases slightly by 90,000 tons, and ending inventory increases by 390,000 tons [13]. - **US Cotton**: The USDA raised the 2025/26 production forecast to 14.12 million bales, up 900,000 bales from the September report. Exports are expected to increase to 1.22 million bales, and ending inventory is up 20% to 4.3 million bales. Good weather led to a significant increase in yield [15][16]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: The USDA's November report shows a production forecast of 4.09 million tons, up 110,000 tons month - on - month, and exports are expected to reach 3.16 million tons. Although Brazilian cotton exports were strong in the first three quarters of 2025, future exports may face more competition [22][23]. - **Indian Cotton**: The 2025/26 initial inventory is expected to rise to about 1.03 million tons, a 55% increase. Production is expected to be 5.19 million tons, down 130,000 tons. Domestic consumption is expected to slow to 5.1 million tons. With sufficient supply and increased imports, exports may increase [25][26]. - **Global Economy**: The global economy is showing signs of a mild slow - down. The Fed is in an easing cycle, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in 2026. Tariff policies may lead to a re - structuring of the global textile supply chain [29][30]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic production is expected to reach 7.3 million tons, imports are expected to be 1.18 million tons, and consumption is slightly lower than the previous year. Overall, the supply - demand situation is slightly looser [31]. - **Production and Cost**: The USDA estimates the 2025/26 cotton production at 7.3 million tons, while domestic estimates are higher at 7.42 million tons. New - cotton costs are relatively low, with the average machine - picked cotton seed - cotton purchase price in Xinjiang between 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg [35][36]. - **Imports**: It is expected that imports in the 2025/26 season will increase slightly to 1.2 million tons. The reduction of tariffs on US cotton imports from 25% to 15% is expected to promote imports [40]. - **Textile Industry**: Since the second half of 2025, the textile industry has been relatively healthy, with a decrease in pure - cotton yarn inventory and an increase in the industry's prosperity index. In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic sales of textiles and clothing continued to grow moderately [45][46]. - **Exports**: In 2025, the export of textiles and clothing faced complex situations. With the narrowing of the effective tax - rate gap between China and Southeast Asian countries, direct exports to the US are expected to increase significantly in 2026 [50][51]. 4. Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - **International Market**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply increases, consumption may see slight growth, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to trade - policy changes [55]. - **Domestic Market**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton supply increases, new - cotton costs change little, and with stable domestic demand and improved exports, cotton prices may rise [56].

Report Title - Guoxin Futures' 2026 Investment Strategy Report: Bear Market Continues, Sugar Prices Seeking Bottom [1][2] Core Views - In the 2025/26 season, the global sugar market shifts from shortage to surplus. The market is bearish, but negative factors may be digested in advance. Sugar prices may rebound if the supply fails to meet expectations due to weather issues. Low sugar prices may dampen production willingness next year [2][47] - In the domestic market, sugar production is expected to increase for two consecutive years in the 2025/26 season. Imports are likely to remain high, and consumption is expected to stay stable. Sugar prices are on a downward trend and may reverse when supply contracts [3][48] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review International Market - **High-level oscillation (January - April)**: ICE raw sugar prices rebounded to 20.19 cents/pound at the beginning of the year, supported by India's lower-than-expected production. However, with Brazil's new harvest season and other factors, prices fell [4] - **Trend decline (April - early July)**: ICE raw sugar prices dropped from 18.5 cents/pound to 15.44 cents/pound, driven by Brazil's expected bumper harvest and other factors [4] - **Sideways consolidation (July - early October)**: After breaking below 16 cents/pound, prices rebounded and oscillated. Short-term positives supported prices, such as Brazil's increased ethanol blending ratio [5] - **Bottom-seeking stage (mid-October - end of the year)**: Prices fell again, hitting a five-year low of 14.04 cents/pound in early November, due to increased supply from major producers [5] Domestic Market - **High-level oscillation (January - late April)**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices reached a high of 6198 yuan/ton, supported by good domestic sales data. However, concerns about global supply limited the upside [8] - **Periodic decline (May - June)**: Prices dropped from above 6000 yuan/ton to around 5600 yuan/ton, driven by expectations of increased global supply [8] - **Oscillatory rebound (mid-June - late July)**: Prices rebounded to 5893 yuan/ton, as short-term factors such as reduced Brazilian production and low domestic inventories supported the market [9] - **Bottom-seeking stage (August - end of the year)**: Prices fell below 5400 yuan/ton, pressured by international supply and high domestic imports [9] 2. International Market Analysis Global Supply Shift - In the 2025/26 season, global sugar production may reach the second-highest level on record. Consumption is expected to grow slightly, and most institutions predict a surplus of 40 - 750 tons [10] Brazil - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach 4500 tons, a historical second-lowest. The 2026/27 season is expected to be good, with a preliminary estimate of 4200 tons. High inventories and low prices may keep export pressure high [15][18] India - In the 2025/26 season, India's sugar production is expected to increase to 3095 tons. Consumption is expected to reach 2900 tons. The government allows 150 tons of exports, but the possibility is low [20][22] Thailand - In the 2025/26 season, Thailand's sugar production may reach 1100 tons, and exports are expected to exceed 800 tons. However, floods and import bans may affect production and exports [24][28] 3. Domestic Market Analysis Inventory Accumulation - In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 1170 tons, and consumption is expected to be 1570 tons. The market faces inventory accumulation and remains in a bear market [30] Production Increase - In the 2025/26 season, domestic sugar production is expected to increase to over 1170 tons. Guangxi, Yunnan, and other regions are expected to contribute to the increase, but weather and other factors may affect the final output [32] Import Situation - In the 2025/26 season, imports are likely to remain high, but policy changes need attention. The import of syrup and premixed powder is expected to decline, but "roundabout" imports may occur [36][42] Consumption and Policy - Overall sugar consumption is expected to be stable, supported by consumption stimulus policies. In 2026, relevant policies are expected to continue to play a role [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international corn market in 2025/26 generally shows a loose pattern, with the supply pressure mainly concentrated in the United States. The South American market is in the sowing period, and the expected output is relatively stable, but the La Nina pattern may affect the output. In China, the corn output in 2025/26 has increased significantly, and the overall supply - demand is slightly loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton [2][34][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the domestic corn market mainly operated in the bottom - range. It was strong in the first half of the year due to reserve purchases, a sharp reduction in imported grains, and strong feed demand. In the second half, the market declined due to poor breeding profits, weak deep - processing demand, and the start of CGSCC's imported corn auctions, with futures leading the decline of spot prices [4] 3.2 International Corn Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Yield Recovery - In 2025, the international corn market price fluctuated widely at the bottom. The relative planting income of corn increased, and the planting area of major producing countries expanded. The corn output of countries outside China in 2025/26 is expected to reach 991 million tons, an increase of 55.408 million tons compared with 2024/25 [7] 3.2.2 Stable and Increasing Consumption - The corn consumption in major countries is expected to increase steadily in 2025/26. The feed consumption outside China is expected to be 574 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons, and the FSI consumption is 389 million tons, an increase of 8.4 million tons [9] 3.2.3 Rising Carry - over Inventory - The export potential of major producing countries has increased, and the total export volume has increased by 14.95 million tons. The carry - over inventory outside China is expected to be 107 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous year [11] 3.3 Domestic Corn Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Significant Yield Increase and Looser Balance Sheet - In 2025/26, the corn planting area in China increased slightly to 44.873 million hectares, the yield per unit area increased by 1.4%, and the output reached 300 million tons, an increase of 1.7%. The feed consumption is expected to decline, while the deep - processing consumption is expected to increase by 1.1 million tons. The final balance is 697,000 tons, turning from a deficit to a surplus [14] 3.3.2 Fast Grain - Selling Progress at the Grass - roots Level - As of November 20, 2025, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces was 27%, 3 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The progress in Northeast and North China was 22% and 26% respectively, both 3 percentage points faster year - on - year. The grain - selling rhythm may slow down later [17] 3.3.3 Declining Feed Consumption and Recovering Deep - processing Consumption - In 2026, due to the loss of pig and egg - chicken breeding and the policy of reducing production capacity, the feed consumption is expected to decline. The deep - processing consumption is expected to recover due to the weakening impact of imported cassava starch and the use of low - quality corn in North China for alcohol processing [26][30] 3.3.4 Reduced Substitution of Imported Grains and Wheat - In 2024/25, the import of corn and substitute grains decreased significantly. In 2025/26, the import of corn and grains is expected to increase but remain at a low level. The substitution of domestic wheat for corn is expected to decrease [32] 3.4 Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market in 2025/26 is generally loose, with supply pressure concentrated in the United States. In China, the corn output has increased, feed consumption has declined, and deep - processing consumption has slightly increased. The overall supply - demand is slightly loose, and the corn price is expected to fluctuate widely between 2,100 - 2,400 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, decline after mid - December, and strengthen again in May [34][35]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪年报 周期磨底 去产能节奏决定上限 生猪 2025 年 11 月 21 日 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 国信期货研究 Page 2 一、行情回顾 主要结论 2025 年国内生猪处于供应压力逐步兑现的阶段，这种供应压力一方面有前 期能繁母猪存栏增加的滞后影响，另一方面也与行业生产效率提高、PSY 整体水 平上行相关。但由于饲料成本的下降，生猪养殖行业全年大多数时间仍能保持微 利，直接到三季度末，供应压力大幅超过消费的承接能力，才开始进入全面亏损 的阶段。往后来看，根据仔猪出生数据推算到明年二季度，国内生猪供应都处于 增加的格局，对猪市仍将形成较大的压制。而未来供应压力的减轻，还需求行业 去产能兑现。尽管国家有关部 ...