Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline this week with a slight rebound. With the inventory at a five - year low, the supply and demand situation is complex. The current apple is in the off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, and the downstream demand is under pressure. Although the export performance was good in the first quarter, the export volume may slow down. Short - term operation suggests waiting and seeing [8][35] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the apple futures main contract AP2510 continued to decline with a slight rebound [8] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of May 15, 2025, the total remaining amount of apples in national cold storage was 1.6582 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold - storage remaining amount in Shandong was 951,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi was 447,200 tons. Shaanxi storage merchants generally had a strong reluctance to sell and asked for high prices, while Shandong storage merchants were more willing to ship [13][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - **Inventory and Sales**: As of May 15, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 12.55%, a 1.92 - percentage - point decline from the previous period and a 9.82 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The destocking rate was 80.27%. The apple is in the sales off - season, affected by seasonal fruits, the downstream demand is impacted, the enthusiasm of merchants for high - price purchases has declined, the e - commerce platform sales volume has decreased, and the shipping speed in the production area has slowed down [18][35] - **Export**: In March 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 96,100 tons, a 40.82% increase from the previous month and a 1.71% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to March was about 255,600 tons, a 9.53% increase year - on - year. However, as the price of origin goods rises, the profit margin of traders is compressed, and the export volume may slow down [20] - **Substitute Fruit Price**: Not provided - **Origin Spot Price**: As of May 16, the price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The price of different grades of apples varied, but the high labor price, low packaging volume, and reduced cold - storage trading volume [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - The domestic sugar price has limited upside and downside space, oscillating between 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The international sugar price also has limited fluctuation due to mixed fundamental factors, and macro factors like crude oil price fluctuations also impact it. Short - term trading is recommended [58][59] Summary by Directory 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.27%. ICE sugar futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8] Spot Price and Basis - Not elaborated in the provided content National Production and Sales - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in April was 65.22%, 7.49 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18] Sugar Imports - In March, imports were 80,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 18 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil is 4,937 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,288 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost is 4,897 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost is 6,235 yuan/ton [23] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in April was 3.8626 million tons, a decrease of 344,800 tons compared to the same period last year [26] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts plus forecasts was 32,930, a decrease of 329 from the previous week. There were 31,553 warehouse receipts and 1,377 valid forecasts [34] Brazil's Production Progress - In the second half of April, the cumulative crushing volume was 34.257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.98%, and the sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62% [38] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 45.27%, compared to 46.98% in the same period last year [40] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in April were 1.5526 million tons, a decrease of 335,000 tons compared to the same period last year [47] International Main Production Area Weather - Precipitation in India has increased. Rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil has decreased, which is beneficial for sugarcane crushing [54][55] 2. Market Outlook - Domestic market: The domestic sales progress is the fastest since 2025, with sugar mills completing nearly 70% of sales in an increased - production context, leading to strong industry reluctance to sell. However, due to the foreign market falling below 17 cents/pound, there is an import profit in the domestic market, and imports are expected to increase significantly. With the recent issuance of import quotas (about 2.6 million tons), sugar supply is relatively abundant. Although it is the off - season for consumption, market expectations for consumption are not overly pessimistic as the weather warms up. - International market: The production data in the second half of April in southern Brazil was significantly lower than market expectations, providing short - term support for sugar prices. There are concerns about the total sugar production due to the low sugar - making ratio. India's sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.8 - 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand before the new sugar is on the market [58]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Continued Low-level Rebound, Focus on Demand Recovery - Guoxin Futures Pulp Weekly Report" and is dated May 18, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, continued to rebound with a slight decline [7] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - As of May 15, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 6,028 yuan/ton, up 1.14% from last week; imported hardwood pulp was 4,213 yuan/ton, up 0.91%; imported natural pulp was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 0.61%; imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,842 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12] - In April 2025, China imported 2.893 million tons of pulp with an import value of 1.8252 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% year-on-year respectively [15] - The weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, etc. was 2.1948 million tons, up 11.24% from last week [18] - In April 2025, the inventory of European chemical pulp was 695,800 tons, up 3.62% year-on-year, and the inventory days were 26 days, up 1 day from the same period last year. Most European countries' port inventories increased month-on-month, driving the total European port inventory to increase in April [21] Group 4: Outlook - The latest round of quotations from international pulp mills has lowered the price of imported hardwood pulp, and the inventory accumulation in European ports is a short-term negative for the market. Domestically, the price of base paper is weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Pay attention to the progress of demand recovery. If the downstream operating load rate rebounds month-on-month, it may boost industry expectations. If the Sino-US tariffs are unexpectedly reduced, there is a willingness to push up prices in the market due to the inverted shipping price. Pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long at low prices [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend this week. After the positive news was released in China after the May Day holiday, iron ore briefly rose and then fell. As terminal demand weakened, iron ore oscillated downward. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level, while steel demand began to decline. It is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future. Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [10][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review - **Iron ore futures main contract trend**: Iron ore was weak and volatile this week. After the positive news in China after the May Day holiday, it briefly rose and then fell. With the weakening of terminal demand, it oscillated downward [10]. - **Iron ore spot trend**: The prices of different iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder was 755, Super Special powder was 619, Jinbuba powder was 713, Brazilian Blend was 766, Mac was 735, and Newman was 748 [14]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron ore futures - spot price spread trend**: The main contract basis was 58.5, 05 - 09 spread was 62.5, pb - Super Special spread was 136, and Brazilian coarse - pb spread was - 13 [19]. - **Ratio of rebar to iron ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore rebounded slightly from a low level [21]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Iron ore supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines this week was 1.8332 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 62.62%. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level [27]. - **International shipping freight**: The freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao was 7.74 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.8 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index was 1316 [30]. - **Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory**: Port inventory was 142.3871 million tons, Australian ore inventory was 59.9132 million tons, Brazilian ore inventory was 54.6716 million tons, iron ore arrival volume was 22.694 million tons, and trade ore inventory was 96.0272 million tons [33]. - **Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory**: This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 142.3871 million tons, a decrease of 637,700 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5895 million tons, a decrease of 3.76 million tons compared with the previous week. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 22 days, the same as the previous week [37]. - **Iron ore demand**: The average daily molten iron output this week was 245,640 tons, remaining at a high level. The average daily port clearance volume decreased significantly. Steel mills mainly consumed their own iron ore inventory. Steel demand began to decline, and it is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future [40]. 4. Future Outlook - Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [45].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].

研究所 底部震荡，缓慢修复 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年05月11日 研究所 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 目 录 CONTENTS ...

研究所 产区出货放缓，盘面高位回落 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年5月11日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 本周苹果期货主力合约AP2510刷新前期高点后回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 根据卓创资讯公布的最新一期库存数据，截至2025年5月8日，全国冷库苹果剩余总量191.19万吨，处于近五年历史的最低位置， 其中山东产区冷库剩余量107.09万吨，陕西产区冷库库存量51.76万吨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 需求端：出货速度放缓 研究所 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年5月8日，全国冷库库存比例约为14.47%，两周共计降低3.98个百分点，较去年同期低10.77个百分 点，去库存率为77.25%。存储商惜售 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, international oilseeds and oils showed a downward - oscillating trend, with domestic protein meal markets also under pressure. The short - term market trends of both protein meal and oils will be affected by factors such as international trade negotiations, weather conditions, and supply - demand relationships [6][71]. - In the protein meal market, the short - term outlook for US soybeans remains range - bound, and domestic soybean meal is facing pressure from increasing supply and bearish sentiment among end - users. In the oils market, international oils are affected by factors like geopolitics and production increases, while domestic oils are expected to show range - bound oscillations [134][135]. Summary by Directory 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a range this week, with a slightly lower price center. Domestic soybean meal futures showed a low - level oscillation. The 5 - month contract of domestic soybean meal rebounded after a post - holiday catch - up decline, while the far - month contracts were under selling pressure [6]. 1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 29% compared to the previous week and 10% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 43,461,547 tons, accounting for 87.5% of the annual export target [12]. 1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 30%, up from 18% the previous week, slightly higher than the five - year average of 23% but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024. The planting progress in southern states was relatively fast, while that in the northern plains was slower [26]. 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 1.684 billion tons, a 0.5% increase from the previous month and a 12.1% increase from the 2023/24 season. Argentina's soybean harvest has been delayed due to heavy rainfall [36][37]. 1.5 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 102,000 tons, a 5.57% week - on - week increase. The contract volume was 4.562 million tons, a 59.42% week - on - week increase [55]. 2. Oils Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated downward this week, with US soybean oil leading the decline. Malaysian palm oil also showed a similar trend, while Canadian canola was relatively strong. In the domestic market, palm oil was the weakest, and rapeseed oil was the strongest [71]. 2.2 International Oils Information - Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase for the second consecutive month in April. Indian palm oil imports in April are estimated to be lower than normal, but may rebound in May. The proposed budget cut of the US EPA has led to concerns about the demand for biofuels [75][76]. 2.3 Domestic Oils Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 1.9469 million tons, a 1.10% week - on - week increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 710,900 tons, a 2.92% week - on - week increase; palm oil inventory was 330,600 tons, a 3.45% week - on - week decrease; rapeseed oil inventory was 905,500 tons, a 1.43% week - on - week increase [91]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, while the long - term indicator is entangled. For soybean oil, all three indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicator is bullish, and medium - and long - term indicators are entangled [134]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: The US soybean market will remain range - bound in the short term, affected by the USDA report, weather, and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure from increasing supply. - Oils: International oils are affected by geopolitics and production increases. Domestic palm oil may test the 7800 - level support, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to show range - bound oscillations [135].

国信期货金融月报 关税扰乱 股指国债波动减弱 金融 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 4 月 28 日 主要结论 股指：关税僵局 股指核心维稳 市场层面，1月份中下旬，股市走出触底反弹形式，2月份市场持续反弹， 3月份股市冲高回落，4月份初股市在外部冲击下大幅下挫，随后市场缩量反 弹。但是股市出现不一。外部冲击方面，特朗普掀起关税战，扰乱全球经济 贸易关系，引发全球资本市场大幅下挫。美国对中国关税上调幅度高到双方 直接贸易几乎中断的程度。国内方面，政策鼓励国内消费，稳定资本市场， 稳定房地产市场。股市稳定方面，央企、国企、地方国资委，部分券商、基 金、上市公司纷纷回购、增持等措施稳定市场。股市的资金仍然谨慎。一方 面，稳定指数的银行板块持续新高，一方面中小盘市场更加投机，且整体市 场呈现缩量状态，临近长假，市场规避风险情绪浓厚，IH、IF小幅度维稳， IC、IM或震荡偏弱。 国信期货交易咨询 业务资格： 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 邮箱：15051@guosen.com.cn 国信期货研究 Page 2 股指期货部分 1、股指走势分析 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 PTA 月报 PTA 供需预期双弱，关注成本波动 2025 年 4 月 28 日 需求方面：目前中美贸易战陷入僵持，外商多持谨慎观望心态，美国市场 订单下达推迟或暂时取消，纺织服装出口冲击较为明显。由于新单跟进不足， 且原料及成品库存贬值，4 月江浙印染、织造开工明显下滑，终端需求走弱导 致聚酯库存累积。今年国内消费同比虽有回暖，但不足以对冲出口的"断档"， 若贸易摩擦不能妥善解决，短期需求滑坡不可避免，聚酯工厂在库存压力下不 得不降负减产，这也将影响到上游原料 PTA 及乙二醇的消费，密切关注贸易谈 判进展。 成本方面：目前亚洲处于集中检修季，国内方面九江石化、浙石化及中海 油惠州先后停车，天津石化、福佳大化及福海创计划 6-7 月检修，而海外日韩、 东南亚及中东地区检修计划密集。2 季度亚洲 PX 供应减少，国内整体延续去库， 但因下游 PTA 亦有较大减产，且海外汽油裂差低迷，叠加贸易战事件冲击，PXN 价差被压缩至历史低位，未来继续压缩空间有限，市场存在阶段性修复机会， 关注油价及产业链开工变化。 综上所述：5 月 PTA 计划检修较多，下游需求存走弱预期，市场供 ...