Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend became entangled. The spot market in Xinjiang maintained a high basis, and the warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity, and the expected impact of the policy might be reduced. - Internationally, the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - The operation suggestion was to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.15% this week after rising and then falling, while ICE cotton futures weakened with a weekly decline of 1.28% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose 85 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose 91 yuan/ton [14]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [16]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons, and the industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [25]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OEC10S yarn rose 20 yuan/ton, C32S yarn rose 40 yuan/ton, and JC40S yarn rose 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 191. There were 10,140 warehouse receipts and 266 valid forecasts, totaling 10,406 [38]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of June 26, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 23,700 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 106,600 bales [41][44]. 后市展望 - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend was entangled. The basis in Xinjiang remained high, and warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity [50]. - **International Market**: The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - term trading [50].

Report Title - Bio - diesel Policy Favorable, US Soybean Oil Leads the Rise of Oils and Fats - Guoxin Futures Weekly Report on Oils and Oilseeds [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: Internationally, the probability of abnormal weather for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy may be the key factor affecting the market. US soybeans may run within the range of 950 - 1100 cents. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the Dalian soybean meal market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing, with short - term low - level fluctuations. [136] - The oils and fats market: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies for biodiesel. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136] Section Summaries 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a low level this week. The near - month contracts were pressured by the higher - than - expected quarterly inventory report at the end of June, while the far - month contracts were supported by the slightly lower - than - expected planting area report. The US Senate's new tax bill and Trump's speech also affected the market. The main contract of US soybeans fluctuated between 950 - 1100 cents. Dalian soybean meal oscillated higher at a low level, with a weaker increase than US soybeans. [6] 1.2 US Soybean Export - The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 11% from the previous week but decreased by 30% year - on - year. As of June 26, 2025, the export inspection volume was 224,787 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,851,787 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and 91.1% of the revised export target has been achieved. [12] 1.3 North American Weather - In the US, there were active weather conditions in many areas, with heavy rainfall in some parts and drought in others. There were also wildfires in the west. In Canada, the rainfall in the prairies was generally low, and some areas in Saskatchewan experienced drought. [24][30] 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - The US soybean inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% year - on - year increase. The 2025 US soybean planting area was adjusted down to 83.38 million acres. Argentina restored the original tax rates for soybeans and other crops. The EU's rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, while sunflower seed production is expected to decrease. Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to reach a record high of 168.75 million tons. [35][36][37] 1.5 Trade Pattern Changes - Italy will increase imports of US soybeans. Trump is rumored to reveal the progress of the trade agreement with China, and the US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. [39] 1.6 Domestic Soybean Situation - The domestic spot and futures crushing margins of soybeans have declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 5.988 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons next weekend. The cost of imported soybeans from the US Gulf for September shipment is 4,620 yuan/ton, and that from Brazil is 3,917 yuan/ton. [45][48] 1.7 Soybean Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the average soybean opening rate of domestic oil mills was 67.05%, a decrease of 4.44% from the previous week. The inventory of soybean meal was 751,000 tons, an increase of 217,000 tons from the previous week. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 26th week was 1.7513 million tons, a decrease from the previous week. [53][57] 1.8 Rapeseed Meal Situation - As of the end of the 26th week (June 28), the weekly opening rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 13.82%, a 0.73% increase from the previous week. The inventory of imported crushed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week. [63] 2. Oils and Fats Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils and fats oscillated higher this week, with US soybean oil rising significantly due to the favorable policy for biodiesel. Malaysian palm oil also rose, and domestic oils and fats followed the trend. Dalian palm oil led the rise, Zhengzhou rapeseed oil oscillated strongly, and Dalian soybean oil rose and then fell. [70] 2.2 International Oils and Fats Information - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in June, with different performance for different varieties. Indonesia raised the reference price of palm oil in July. Indian importers cancelled some palm oil import orders. The US Senate's new tax bill is favorable for US soybeans and corn growers. The production of South Malaysian palm oil decreased in June. [74][75][76][77][78] 2.3 Domestic Oils and Fats Situation - As of the end of the 26th week in 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.4565 million tons, a weekly increase of 188,100 tons. The inventory of soybean oil was 1.0609 million tons, an increase of 75,000 tons; the inventory of edible palm oil was 511,500 tons, an increase of 113,400 tons; the inventory of rapeseed oil was 884,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons. [93] 2.4 Arbitrage Relationships - This week, the oil - meal ratio of beans and rapeseeds decreased slightly, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil decreased significantly, while the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly. [113][117][119] 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bearish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all entangled. For soybean oil, short - term indicators are entangled, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all bullish. For rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled. [135] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, the probability of weather speculation for US soybeans is decreasing, and policy is the key factor. Domestically, the inventory of soybean meal is accelerating, and the market will face the game between cost increase and supply easing. - Oils and fats: Internationally, the MPOB report is expected to be favorable, and the US soybean oil market has positive policies. Domestically, the market follows the international trend, with short - term volatile strength, and it is advisable to adopt interval band operations or double - selling option strategies. [136]

国信期货软商品半年报 国信期货研究 Page 1 潮平两岸阔 风正一帆悬 棉花 2025 年 6 月 30 日 主要结论 棉花：国内市场综合来看，当前多空交织的局面下，双方力量都在酝酿之中， 短期由于市场对于库存的担忧开始走向震荡偏多的格局，如果后续没有进口配额 发放以及储备投放，消费不出现崩溃的情况下，市场将走向小概率的多头极端情 形。如果增发进口配额，且消费走弱，库存累积，市场将从当前震荡偏强格局转 向震荡偏弱的格局。如果增发进口配额并且进行抛储，同时下游消费坍塌，宏观 方面也利空，将出现低概率的极端空头局面。 从业资格号：F3037058 投资咨询号：Z0013232 电话：021-55007766-305169 邮箱：15227@guosen.com.cn 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：侯雅婷 国际市场综合来看，宏观影响对于棉市仍有较大不确定性，中美谈判以及美 国和其他国家的博弈影响全球贸易流的走向。国际局势的变动导致原油价格波 动，使得棉花替代品价格波动，以及原油商品之母的带动，都会间接影响国际棉 价。基本面上，北半球种植面积逐步确定，后期主产国天气仍是市场焦点 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, nickel prices showed an overall oscillating downward trend. The supply - side surplus intensified with increasing refined nickel production, high LME nickel inventory, and continuous stockpiling. The demand - side was structurally weak, with limited demand pull from the new energy sector and low demand in the stainless - steel industry [6][50]. - The macro - economic situation in the US and China had different impacts on the nickel market. In the US, the Fed's interest - rate policy was uncertain due to inflation and tariff issues. In China, the economy showed strong resilience and structural optimization, but the nickel market was affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [4][5]. - In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore policy, the reduction efforts of the stainless - steel industry, and the marginal improvement of new energy demand [51]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Review - In 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel futures showed a complex trend of "rushing up and then falling back - oscillating to build a bottom - stage rebound - falling back again". It was affected by factors such as Indonesia's nickel ore policy, new energy demand expectations, refined nickel stockpiling, stainless - steel demand, and US tariff increases [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a steady upward trend. As of late June 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,304 tons, and LME inventory was 204,216 tons [13]. - **Nickel Port Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, nickel port inventory was 4.6591 million tons [15]. - **Import of Philippine Nickel Ore**: The import of Philippine nickel ore sand and concentrates in China showed seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have shown a weak oscillating trend this year, closing at around 120,180 yuan/ton in late June [21]. - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: As of June 26, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 28,930 yuan/ton [25]. - **Nickel Iron Import Volume and Price**: On June 26, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 940 yuan/nickel [27]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless - steel Price and Position**: The stainless - steel futures price showed a weak downward trend, with the market range in the first half of the year approximately between 12,300 yuan/ton and 13,700 yuan/ton [32]. - **Stainless - steel Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 475,200 tons and 184,100 tons respectively [37]. - **Production of Power and Energy - storage Batteries**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [40]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production**: The production of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends, but specific analysis was not detailed in the report [48]. III. Outlook for the Future - In the first half of 2025, the domestic refined nickel production continued to climb, with the cumulative output from January to May reaching 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.99%. The over - supply pattern in the market intensified, and the demand was weak. The stainless - steel industry showed characteristics of "high production, high inventory, and low demand" [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market is expected to be loose as major producers' output is likely to increase, and global corn prices will likely maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [2][35] - In the domestic market, before the new crop is launched, the supply - demand situation of corn is generally tight, but considering imports, substitutes, and policy - sourced grains, the overall energy raw material supply is sufficient. After the new corn is launched in the fourth quarter, the corn market may face pressure [2][35] - In the third quarter, the general idea is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing up. In the fourth quarter, pay attention to the new crop's launch. If the output is good, a bearish view is advisable [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first half of 2025, domestic corn prices rose from a low level. Futures prices rose less than spot prices due to the previous premium. The spot price at Jinzhou Port increased from around 2,050 yuan in early January to around 2,380 yuan. Dalian corn futures led the increase, but the upward trend slowed down in the second quarter with several adjustments [4] 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 US Corn Supply Expected to Increase Significantly - The USDA's May report estimated that the 2025/26 corn planting area in the US will be 95.3 million acres, with a yield of 181 bushels per acre and a total output of 15.8 billion bushels. Supply is expected to increase significantly compared to the previous year, and consumption will increase steadily, leading to a significant rise in ending stocks [6] 2.2 South American G2 Output Resumes Growth and Exports Are Expected to Increase - In 2024/25, Brazil's corn output is estimated to be 130 million tons, and Argentina's is 50 million tons. For 2025/26, Brazil's output is expected to be 131 million tons, and Argentina's is 53 million tons. Brazil and Argentina's exports are likely to increase in the coming months with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn [9] 2.3 Ukraine's Supply Capacity Expected to Recover - Ukraine's 2025/26 corn output is estimated to be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons from the previous year. Exports will recover to 24 million tons, and ending stocks will be 597,000 tons [11] 2.4 Regions Outside China to See Slightly Looser Supply - Demand - In 2025/26, the corn output of regions outside China will be 970 million tons, an increase of about 42 million tons from 2024/25. Exports are expected to be 195 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons from the previous year, and ending stocks will reach 9.407 million tons, an increase of about 7 million tons [15] 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 2025/26 Output to Increase Slightly - The 2025/26 domestic corn output is expected to be 296 million tons, an increase of about 1 million tons from the previous year. The total planting area will remain stable with a slight increase, ensuring domestic supply [16] 3.2 Imports: Later Imports to Increase - In 2024/25, the cumulative corn imports were 1.52 million tons, a decrease of about 19.2 million tons from the previous year. The theoretical import profit has expanded, and with the launch of Brazil's second - season corn, later imports are expected to increase significantly [20] 3.3 Demand: Expanding Breeding Scale and Increasing Feed Consumption - From January to May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 130.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding industries will support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [25] 3.4 Deep - processing: Weak Economic Situation and Decreasing Deep - processing Demand - Due to the weak macro - economic situation, the consumption of deep - processed corn products has declined. The corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises decreased by about 4% year - on - year. Corn starch deep - processing is not expected to improve significantly [28][30] 3.5 Substitutes: Domestic Raw Materials Key to Filling the Energy Raw Material Gap - Wheat has a substitution advantage over corn in North China, but large - scale substitution has not occurred in the South. The impact of imported substitutes on domestic corn is weakening. The auctions of aged rice and imported corn are uncertain factors [32] 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The international corn market is expected to be loose, and domestic corn supply will be tight before the new crop is launched. After the new crop is launched in the fourth quarter, the market may face pressure. In the third quarter, buy on dips; in the fourth quarter, be bearish if the output is good [35]

研究所 中东动荡 股指回落债震荡 ----国信期货金融周报 2025-6-23 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 研究所 上证50、沪深 300震荡偏弱。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 中证500高位回 国债期货高位震 荡。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 成交额小幅回 落。 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500、中 证1000有所 回暖。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2.1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current market price is under deflationary pressure with no signs of improvement, which exerts pressure on commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - As of the end of May 2025, M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%; M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%; M0 balance was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.1%. Net cash injection in the first five months was 306.4 billion yuan. The low base in the same period in 2024 due to policies to prevent idle funds led to a significant rebound in M1 growth in May [7]. - At the end of May, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan. In May, credit performance was still poor, with new RMB loans in a single month less than the same period last year by 330 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans performed better than medium - and long - term loans, and residents' short - term loans decreased, indicating weak consumption [7]. - In May 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to May was 0.1% lower than the same period last year, remaining flat compared to the previous period [7]. 3.1.2 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2 2. Futures Market Environment: Macroeconomics, Price Ratios, and Basis 3.2.1 2.1 Macroeconomics - Money Quantity - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.2 2.2 Macroeconomics - Money Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.2.3 2.4 Price Ratios - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The current prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are 3,090 yuan/ton, 3,200 yuan/ton, 710 yuan/ton, 1,270 yuan/ton, and 1,236 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly price changes are 0.00%, 0.31%, - 1.94%, 0.00%, - 1.89%; monthly price changes are - 2.83%, - 2.15%, - 5.98%, - 8.63%, - 6.65%; and annual price changes are - 12.46%, - 14.93%, - 12.38%, - 36.18%, - 38.10% [24]. 3.2.4 2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis - The basis (spot - futures) data from May 30 to June 20, 2025, shows fluctuations, with values ranging from 84 to 169 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 3. Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.3.1 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.2 3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (Various Steel Products) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.3 3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Spot and Futures) - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.4 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation Rate - As of June 20, 2025, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.82%, up from 83.41% on June 13 [40]. 3.3.5 3.4 Electric Arc Furnace Profits - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.6 3.5 Electric Arc Furnace Operation Rate - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.7 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.8 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - On June 20, 2025, the output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 780.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.13% [51]. - On June 20, 2025, the rebar output was 212.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.96% [54]. 3.3.9 3.10 Steel Mill Inventories - On June 20, 2025, the steel mill inventory was 514.18 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.31% [57]. 3.3.10 3.11 Social Steel Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.11 3.13 Rebar Social Inventories - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.12 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.13 3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.14 3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area - No specific content provided other than the title 3.3.15 3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions - No specific content provided other than the title 3.4 4. Outlook for the Future - The current market price deflationary pressure persists, and there are no signs of improvement, which affects commodity valuations. In terms of fundamentals, supply and demand have both increased, inventories are being depleted, and raw material prices have stabilized and rebounded. The rebar futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and short - term operations are recommended [75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp futures main contract completed the rollover, with SP2509 falling significantly by 1.5% this week. In June, the paper industry is in the traditional off - season, downstream paper mills' profit improvement is poor, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow, continuing the dynamic game. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract completed the rollover, and SP2509 dropped by 1.5% on a weekly basis [7] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Pulp Market Prices - As of June 19, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5946 yuan/ton, down 0.72% from last week, turning from stable to falling; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4141 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from last week, turning from rising to falling; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5187 yuan/ton, down 1.61% from last week, with the decline expanding by 0.86 percentage points compared to the previous period; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3783 yuan/ton, down 0.92% from last week, with the decline expanding by 0.40 percentage points compared to the previous period [12] 2.2 April Pulp Import Volume - In April 2025, China imported 289.3 tons of pulp, with an import value of 1825.2 million US dollars and an average unit price of 630.90 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to April increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared to the same period last year. In April, the import volume of softwood pulp was 75.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.57%; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 119.93 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.70% [16] 2.3 Port Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 220.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.85 percentage points compared to last week [18][33] 2.4 May European Chemical Pulp Inventory - In May 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 85.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.32%; the European chemical pulp inventory was 68.10 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.50%. The inventory days were 25 days, the same as the same period last year [21][33] 2.5 Consumption - Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper increased by 1.53 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of offset paper increased by 2.93 percentage points this week; the operating load rate of white cardboard decreased by 2.16 percentage points this week; the operating load rate of tissue paper increased by 2.93 percentage points this week [26] 3. Future Outlook - As of June 19, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 220.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22%, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.85 percentage points compared to last week. Arauco of Chile announced a new round of wood pulp export quotes. In May, European chemical pulp consumption increased by 0.32% year - on - year, and the inventory increased by 2.50% year - on - year. June is the traditional off - season for the paper industry, downstream paper mills' profit improvement is poor, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the pulp market sales rhythm is slow, continuing the dynamic game. It is recommended to wait and see for now [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The market has digested the negative impact of the significant year - on - year increase in May's import data in advance. The basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar. With the decrease in warehouse receipts and the market price showing certain resilience, the 5600 yuan/ton support line is expected to be effective if the international market doesn't decline further [59]. - In the international market, Brazil's production data in the second half of May exceeded market expectations, and the sugar - making ratio continued to rise, suppressing prices. However, due to the rising crude oil price and the influence of the sugar - alcohol ratio, and the fact that Pakistan will purchase 750,000 tons of sugar, which may boost international sugar prices in the short term [59]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - long trading [60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 0.99%, while ICE sugar futures were searching for a bottom with a weekly decline of 1.15% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No detailed description of spot price trends, but the basis remains above 400 yuan/ton, strongly supporting Zhengzhou sugar [59]. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [19]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons. Based on the ICE sugar July contract price of 17 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4632 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5889 yuan/ton; for Thailand, the in - quota cost was 4656 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 5920 yuan/ton [23]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [26]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,279, a decrease of 837 from the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 28,279, and the effective forecast was 0 [34]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the second half of May, the cumulative crushing volume was 127 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.85%, and the sugar production was 6.954 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [38]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in central - southern Brazil was 49.99%, compared with 47.81% in the same period last year [40]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: In May, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.2532 million tons, a decrease of 557,500 tons compared with the same period last year [47]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: In Brazil, rainfall in the main production areas increased slightly, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. In India, the monsoon brought abundant precipitation [54][55].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Apple Weekly Report: Stronger Oscillation, Awaiting New Season Guidance" and is dated June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. With less inventory in cold storage and declining downstream demand, the supply and demand are in a stalemate. The new season's apples are in the early stage of bagging, and the fruit - hanging issues in the production areas need to be verified by the initial bagging results. Short - term operations are recommended to be treated with a bullish oscillation mindset [35] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a stronger oscillation [7] 2. Supply - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country is 1.0883 million tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The cold storage remaining volume in Shandong production area is 657,600 tons, and that in Shaanxi production area is 291,700 tons [12][35] 3. Demand - side Situation - As of June 19, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 8.24%, with a weekly环比 decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points. The destocking rate is 87.05%. Apples are in the off - season, and the listing of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, reducing market demand and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants [17] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 50,000 tons, a 28.57% decrease from the previous month and a 16.67% decrease from the same period last year. The second - quarter export volume of fresh apples in 2025 is expected to decline [19] - As of June 20, in Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples is 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, striped apples are 3.5 - 4.5 yuan/jin, merchant's slice - red apples are 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin, striped apples are 4.0 - 5.0 yuan/jin. The price of general goods is 2.8 - 3.0 yuan/jin, and the third - grade merchant's goods are 2.5 - 3.0 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 apples is 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin. Sellers sell according to the market, there are few buyers, and the trading volume is low [31]