Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina futures are expected to be short - term bullish and oscillatory, targeting the key resistance level of 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected continuous release of supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [14][135]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is expected to oscillate within the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [15][136]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [15][136]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Market Overview - **Macro**: Trump announced on July 9 that a 50% tariff would be imposed on all imported copper starting from August 1. Also, on July 7, he declared tariffs on imported products from 14 countries starting from August 1 and postponed the implementation of the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1 [8]. - **Spot**: As of July 11, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. As of July 4, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27 [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [8]. - **Demand**: As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The operating rates of the aluminum plate and strip and aluminum cable sectors decreased, while others remained stable [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3, mainly due to the increase in alumina price. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3 [10]. - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminium, and aluminum alloy all showed a bullish and oscillatory trend [13]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price as of July 11 was 3,142.39 yuan/ton, up 26.64 yuan/ton from July 4. Tightening spot circulation and spot discount transactions led to the rebound of the average spot price [27]. 2.1 Supply - As of July 10, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 79.92%, down 0.05% from the previous week. There is an expectation of future supply surplus due to capacity restart and new capacity release [31]. 2.1 Import and Export - As of July 10, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The alumina import and export windows are both closed [33]. 2.1 Cost and Profit - As of July 10, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,850 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has expanded to about 284 yuan/ton [36]. 2.1 Inventory - As of July 10, the alumina port inventory was 26,000 tons, down 17,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a low level in the past four years. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [40]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost - As of July 11, the pit - mouth coal price in Ordos decreased slightly, while those in Yulin, Datong, and the FOB coal price at Qinhuangdao Port increased. The single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/kWh. The pre - baked anode price in major production areas remained stable this week [48][52]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - As of July 9, the smelting cost of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was about 16,514 yuan/ton, up about 44 yuan/ton from July 3. The average industry profit has narrowed to about 4,145 yuan/ton [57]. 2.3 Supply - China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. As of the end of June, the operating rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity was 96%, unchanged from the previous month and 0.32% higher than the same period last year [59]. 2.4 Spot - As of July 11, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 4 [62]. 2.6 Demand - As of July 3, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.6%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in June was 40.1%, remaining below the boom - bust line and down 8.8% from May [69]. 2.7 Inventory - As of July 10, the aluminum ingot inventory was 466,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from July 3. The aluminum rod inventory was 160,000 tons, up 6,500 tons from July 3. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports the price, but the support may weaken during the off - season [73]. 2.8 Futures Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from July 4. From July 4 to July 10, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 38,750 tons to 395,725 tons [77]. 2.9 Import and Export - The import profit window for aluminum ingots is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [79][84]. 2.11 Terminal - The real estate market is slowly recovering. From July 1 - 6, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 238,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 1% compared with the same period in July last year. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 135,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21% [88][90]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis 4.1 Raw Materials - The price of scrap aluminum has been high. The aluminum scrap - refined aluminum price difference shows certain characteristics [96][98]. 4.2 ADC12 Cost and Profit - The cost of ADC12 aluminum alloy has increased, and the profit situation is affected [100][101]. 4.3 ADC12 Spot Price - The average price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and there are differences in prices in different regions [103][106]. 4.4 Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit - The overseas ADC12 price and import profit situation have changed [108][111]. 4.5 Supply - The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy have certain characteristics [113][115]. 4.6 Demand - The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [117][120]. 4.7 Inventory - The inventory of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [128]. 4.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain characteristics [130][131]. 3. Future Outlook - **Alumina**: In the short term, alumina futures are expected to be bullish and oscillatory, targeting 3,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, the expected increase in supply will cap the price. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [135]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE Aluminium is expected to oscillate within the range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The current industrial fundamentals mainly support the price, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [136]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate, restricted by cost support and weak demand [136].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 13, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy in autumn, with a high probability of rate cuts. China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing is growing steadily. Although PPI decline has widened, prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. In the nickel market, refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation, the shortage of nickel ore supply has eased, sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak oscillation, and the improvement of medium - and long - term demand needs further data verification. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, presenting the historical closing prices of nickel futures main contracts from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines into China, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Shows the price trends of domestic and imported 1 electrolytic nickel (Ni99.90) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price - Presents the average price trends of sulfuric acid nickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel Price, Futures Position, and Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory - **Stainless Steel Price**: Shows the closing price trends of stainless steel futures (continuous) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Displays the position volume trends of stainless steel futures from 2020 - 2025, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 hands [23][24] - **Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Presents the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel from 2020 - 2025, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production volume of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production volume in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline of PPI in June widened by 0.3 percentage points, but prices of some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level. However, the overall demand improvement in the pulp market is still poor. The port inventory is at a high level in recent years, and the de - stocking rhythm is slow. It is in the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient. The market is in a dynamic game with cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [7][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2509 rebounded from a low level [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Prices**: As of July 10, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,806 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week, with the decline narrowing by 0.88 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,066 yuan/ton, up 0.20% from last week, turning from a decline to an increase; the weekly average price of imported unbleached pulp was 5,115 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week, with the decline widening by 0.16 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp was 3,767 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, with the decline remaining the same as last week [12]. - **Pulp Import Volume in May**: According to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, the pulp import volume in May was 3.016 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to May 2025 was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, the cumulative import volume of softwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import volume of hardwood pulp from January to May 2025 was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [16]. - **Port Inventory Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points [20]. - **European Port Inventory in May**: According to Europulp data, the total European port inventory in May 2025 increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. The port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [23]. - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. As of July 10, the operating load rate of double - copper paper remained the same as last week; the operating load rate of double - offset paper decreased by 0.85 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of white cardboard increased by 1.01 percentage points from last week; the operating load rate of household paper increased by 4.44 percentage points from last week [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.1857 million tons, up 0.45% from last week, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.87 percentage points. The port has been accumulating inventory in the past two weeks, and the pulp port inventory is at a high level in recent years, with a slow de - stocking rhythm. Currently, it is the traditional off - season of the papermaking industry, and the profitability improvement of paper enterprises is poor. The downstream paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is insufficient, and the spot market trading is not active. There is also certain cost support at the bottom, and it is recommended to adopt an interval - oscillation approach [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the domestic market, the previous rebound of Zhengzhou sugar caused by capital games has ended, and the market has turned to consolidation. The main short - position has reversed to a net long - position, which may support the sugar price to rebound further if the long - position increases. The domestic market is influenced by macro anti - involution and shows a bullish trend. The spot market has improved with rising prices. The upcoming June production and sales data is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Low inventory still supports prices, but attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar. The operating range is expected to be between 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. - In the international market, the raw sugar market has calmed down after significant fluctuations. The international market is still pressured by Brazil's large supply, but the market is not optimistic about Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June, with an expected year - on - year decline of 9.8% to 295,000 tons. Purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines in the international market may limit the downside of international sugar prices [59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. ICE sugar futures fluctuated slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.67% [9]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends**: No specific data on price and basis trends are described in the provided text. - **National Production and Sales Situation**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in May was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [18]. - **Sugar Import Situation**: In May, 350,000 tons of sugar were imported, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year. Based on the ICE sugar October contract price of 16.5 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4539 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5769 yuan/ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 4580 yuan/ton, and the out - quota import cost was 5822 yuan/ton [22]. - **Domestic Industrial Inventory**: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in May was 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 322,100 tons compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 23,040, a decrease of 480 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 22,934, and the effective forecast was 106 [33]. - **Brazilian Production Progress**: In the first half of June, the cumulative crushing volume was 164 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.33%, and the sugar production was 9.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.63% [37]. - **Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio**: The bi - weekly cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.45%, compared with 48.33% in the same period last year [39]. - **Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports**: Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24% [45]. - **International Main Production Area Weather Conditions**: There was little rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil, which was beneficial for sugarcane crushing. India had abundant precipitation due to the influence of the monsoon [53][55]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar market is expected to operate in the range of 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the price changes of processed sugar [59]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar market is expected to have limited downside due to purchases from Pakistan and the Philippines, despite pressure from Brazil's supply [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term trading is recommended [60].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The late - season old - crop apples' closing prices are basically stable, which may boost the purchase prices of new - crop apples. The high opening prices of early - season new - crop apples may support the market. Short - term trading is recommended to be based on a bullish - biased trading strategy [36] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a strong performance [7] 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apple volume in China was 824,400 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. Shandong's cold - storage remaining volume was 503,400 tons, and Shaanxi's was 219,100 tons [13] 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 6.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35 percentage points. The de - stocking rate was 90.19%. Apples were in the off - season, with slow shipment in the producing areas. Some storage merchants were eager to sell [18] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 45,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. The second - quarter export volume in 2025 was expected to decline [20] - As of July 11, the mainstream prices of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable. The number of purchasing merchants was still small, with sluggish transactions. In recent days, the sales enthusiasm of storage merchants has further increased [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the window period after the China - US tariff policy negotiation lasts until July 9th. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment fluctuations that may be brought about by subsequent tariff policy changes [145]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the price range from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. Key factors include potential cost increases due to bauxite price hikes in Guinea, supply glut from复产 and new - capacity releases, low futures inventory, and policies promoting the exit of backward产能 [145]. - Shanghai Aluminium (SHFE Aluminium) is predicted to fluctuate, with the price range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan/ton. The supply will remain high, but the demand is in a seasonal slump, and the inventory support may weaken [146]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to oscillate. High raw material costs support prices, while weak demand during the off - season restricts upward movement [146]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Macro - environment**: On July 1st, the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized governance of low - price disorderly competition, product quality improvement, and the exit of backward产能. The US reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, a negative growth since March 2023. Guinea announced bauxite industry reforms, including creating a bauxite index [8]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,115.75 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan/ton from June 27th. The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output in June 2025 was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%, and the cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line [12][68]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, with an average profit of about 250 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th [13]. - **Market Trends**: This week, alumina, SHFE Aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a volatile and slightly upward trend [16]. 2. Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the domestic alumina spot price stopped falling and rebounded, with the spot premium narrowing to 76 yuan/ton. Future prices are expected to be under downward pressure due to increased supply willingness [28]. - **Supply**: As of July 3rd, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.97%, down 0.3% from the previous week. The total operating capacity is 93.45 million tons, and a new roasting production line is planned to be put into operation in mid - to - late July, which is bearish for prices in the long run [32]. - **Import and Export**: As of July 3rd, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 361.6 US dollars/ton, down nearly 9 US dollars/ton from June 27th. Both import and export windows are closed [34]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the average full - cost of alumina was about 2,863 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from June 27th, and the average profit was about 250 yuan/ton, with normal profitability [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the alumina port inventory was 43,000 tons, up 17,400 tons from the previous week, at a four - year low. In May 2025, China's alumina imports decreased year - on - year, while exports increased year - on - year [41][42]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: As of July 3rd, coal prices in Yulin slightly increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The hydropower price in Yunnan in June decreased to about 0.41 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas decreased this week [50][53]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 3rd, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,507 yuan/ton, down 357 yuan/ton from June 27th, mainly due to lower power costs. The average industry profit expanded to about 4,350 yuan/ton [55]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 3.609 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.57%. The cumulative output from January to June was 18.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity operating rate in June was 96%, unchanged from the previous month [57]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 4th, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market aluminum (A00) was 20,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton from June 27th [60]. - **Aluminum Price and Premium**: This week, the SHFE Aluminum main contract was volatile and slightly weak, and the spot price was volatile and falling, with the spot turning to a discount. LME Aluminum was volatile and slightly strong, with a spot discount [67]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 3rd, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.7%, down 0.1% from the previous week. The aluminum processing industry PMI in May was 49.83%, below the boom - bust line, indicating a deepening of the off - season effect [68]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3rd, the aluminum ingot inventory was 474,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th, and the aluminum rod inventory was 153,500 tons, up 11,000 tons from June 27th. The low inventory of aluminum ingots still supports prices, but the support may weaken during the off - season [76]. - **Futures Inventory**: As of July 4th, 2025, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 38,485 tons, up 4,095 tons from June 27th. From June 27th to July 4th, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 11,775 tons to 356,975 tons [79]. - **Import and Export**: The aluminum ingot import profit window is closed. In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year, while imports increased year - on - year [82][88]. - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the new energy vehicle market is relatively bright. In June, the retail sales of the national passenger vehicle market and the new energy passenger vehicle market increased year - on - year [90][92]. 4. Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply and price of scrap aluminum are important factors affecting the cost of aluminum alloy. The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and recent increases in copper and silicon prices also contribute to cost increases [18]. - **ADC12 Spot Price**: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal fluctuations, and different regions have different price levels [111]. - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy are important indicators of supply [117]. - **Demand**: The automotive industry is the main demand side for cast aluminum alloy, and the demand has obvious seasonality [125][133]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy and the factory inventory of recycled aluminum alloy sample enterprises are important indicators of inventory status [134]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy reflects the relationship between supply and demand in the market [138].

研究所 供应压力暂减 生猪表现偏强 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年07月06日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货强势上涨，因养殖集团缩量及二育入场增加推升，期货主力LH09明显上涨。基差先强后弱，但整体同比正 常偏高水平。基本面来看，从仔猪出生数据及饲料产销量来推断，后期理论供应整体充足；但春季仔猪腹泻疾病对供应的影响 将在7、8月体现，市场对出栏存有阶段性断档的担忧。此外，7月养殖集团计划日均出栏量较上6月收缩，同时二育预计也会 逢低入场以赶在后期旺季出栏，因此，预计近期现货仍表现偏强。目前盘面相对现货有一定贴水，基差对其有一定支撑。操作 上，短多思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.生猪现货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND,涌益咨询, 国信期货 5 3.生猪现货：区域及均重调整后的基差 研究所 | 日期 | 2025/ ...

研究所 郑糖预计转为震荡 关注加工糖 郑商所白糖期货价格走势 郑糖本周下挫后回升，周度跌幅0.4%。 ICE期糖大幅波动，周度跌幅1.92%。 数据来源：博易云 国信期货 ——国信期货白糖周报 2025年7月6日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 白糖市场分析 2 后市展望 一、白糖市场分析 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 3 ICE期糖价格走势 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1、现货价格及基差走势 研究所 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 2、全国产销情况 研究所 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 2022/2023 2023/2024 2024/2025 2024/25榨季，5月累计销糖率72.69%，同比加快6.52个百分点。 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 3、食糖进口情况 研究所 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1月 2月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. This Week's Market Review - The main contract of pulp futures, SP2509, hovered at a low level [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of July 3, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,824 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points compared with the previous period; the weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,058 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from last week, and the decline rate widened by 0.76 percentage points; the weekly average price of imported natural pulp was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from last week, turning from stable to declining; the weekly average price of imported chemimechanical pulp was 3,775 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from last week, turning from stable to declining [13] - **Pulp Import Volume**: In May, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Among them, from January to May 2025, the cumulative import of softwood pulp was 3.803 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the cumulative import of hardwood pulp was 7.1081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.03% [17][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports such as Baoding, Tianjin Port, Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, Shanghai Port, Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%, turning from a decline to an increase [21] - **European Port Inventory in May**: In May 2025, the total inventory in European ports increased by 13.26% month - on - month and 22.04% compared with May 2024. In May, the port inventories in the UK and Spain decreased by 39.93% and 3.92% month - on - month respectively, while the port inventories in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, Germany, and Italy increased by 21.74%, 5.12%, and 16.36% month - on - month respectively. Overall, the port inventories in most European countries increased month - on - month, leading to an increase in the total European port inventory in May [24] - **Consumption Situation**: Waste pulp consumption is the main consumption method of pulp in China, accounting for 63% of the total pulp consumption; wood pulp consumption accounts for 31% of the total pulp consumption, and imported wood pulp consumption accounts for 21% of the total pulp consumption; non - wood pulp consumption accounts for 6% of the total pulp consumption. The operating load rate of double - copper paper remained flat at 62.60% month - on - month; the operating load rate of double - offset paper was 49.10% this week, down 0.87 percentage points from last week; the weekly operating load rate and output of the white cardboard industry declined compared with last week, with the operating load rate dropping by 0.44 percentage points and the output decreasing by 0.67%, and the decline rate narrowing by 0.44 percentage points compared with last week; the operating load rate of the sampled household paper enterprises decreased by 1.71 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.10 percentage points, and the output decreased by 2.88% compared with last week, and the decline rate widened by 1.86 percentage points [30] 3. Future Outlook - The current demand side dominates the pulp price trend. With stable domestic pulp supply and market dynamic gaming, the center of the transaction price may continue to be weak. The operating load rate of downstream paper mills is difficult to increase significantly, and the market lacks confidence. However, the relatively firm FOB quotations of hardwood pulp may provide some support to the spot market. It is expected that the pulp price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Currently, the pulp futures market has reached a low - level range, and whether it can rebound depends on the stabilization of demand and the macro - situation. If there is no obvious improvement, the rebound height may be limited [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The opening price of early-maturing apples is high, which may provide support for the market. In the short term, it is recommended to adopt a bullish and oscillatory trading strategy [34]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a relatively strong performance [8]. 2. Supply-side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the total remaining cold storage apple volume in the country was 909,200 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. The remaining cold storage volume in Shandong was 554,500 tons, and in Shaanxi, it was 242,800 tons [13]. 3. Demand-side Situation - As of July 3, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 6.88%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.69 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 3.59 percentage points. The destocking rate was 89.18%. Apples are in the off-season for consumption, and the shipment speed in the producing areas is slow [18]. - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 45,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 37.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.15%. It is expected that the export volume of fresh apples in the second quarter of 2025 may decline [20]. - As of July 4, the mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The transaction volume increased slightly, and the mainstream price changed little [30]. 4. Market Outlook - The trading logic of the futures market will gradually shift from the sales situation of old-season apples to the production and purchase of new-season apples. The high opening price of early-maturing apples may provide support for the market [34].