Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Pig prices are generally under pressure and may continue a weak trend due to slow adjustment of reproductive sow capacity, significant growth in pig production capacity, high supply pressure, and potential increase in southern curing demand [4][6]. - Egg prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom because of continuous decline in chick sales, low replenishment enthusiasm, continuous increase in old - hen culling, a slight decrease in laying - hen inventory, high current laying - hen inventory, high supply pressure, and weak consumption [7][8]. Summary by Directory I. Pig 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of live pigs stopped falling after a low - level shock, and the spot price rebounded briefly and then declined again. The Zhengzhou outer ternary price dropped from 12,380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,800 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was close to the spot price [4]. 2. Breeding Situation - Pig farming is facing serious losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan per head, and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 89.21 yuan per head. Feed raw material prices were stable or rising, and the pig - grain ratio was 5.6, below the break - even line [4]. 3. Production Capacity - The adjustment of reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month. At this pace, it will take nearly 3 years to complete the policy - required reduction of 1 million heads. The national pig inventory at the end of the third quarter was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23% [4]. - From the perspective of large - scale farms, the adjustment progress is also slow. In September, the reproductive sow inventory of large - scale farms was 5.0421 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month. The number of piglet births increased slightly month - on - month, and the sales volume decreased. The inventory of commercial pigs increased month - on - month, and the proportion of fat pigs increased slightly [5]. 4. Demand - In October, the sales volume of commercial pigs from large - scale farms reached a new high in recent years. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig slaughter volume decreased month - on - month. Downstream slaughter enterprises became profitable again, and the operating rate was stable and higher than the same period last year. As of November 7, the operating rate of 81 slaughter enterprises was 33.49%, a slight month - on - month increase. The southern curing demand may gradually increase [6]. II. Egg 1. Market Performance - The main 2601 contract of eggs rebounded and then declined again. The spot price dropped, and the price of eggs in Xishui, the main producing area, decreased from 3,380 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, and the futures price was at a premium [7]. 2. Breeding Situation - Egg - chicken farming continues to be slightly loss - making. As of November 7, the national egg - chicken farming profit was - 0.47 yuan per chicken. The loss cycle has lasted for nearly 9 months. In October, the chick sales volume was 35.88 million feathers, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.8%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years [7]. 3. Production Capacity - The culling of old hens continued to increase. In October, the culling volume of old hens at sample points was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 16.8%, reaching the highest level in the same period in recent years. The laying - hen inventory decreased slightly month - on - month for the first time this year, but still increased by 5.6% year - on - year. The laying - hen inventory may decline seasonally in the fourth quarter [7][8]. 4. Consumption - Egg consumption is relatively stable and depends on festival consumption stimulation. After October, consumption was insufficient, and the egg sales volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and inventory accumulation of radiata pine. The futures price is also in a weak state, and the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand has increased, and the recent arrival volume is large. Although the expected arrival volume in some periods has decreased, the overall import volume in October continued to decline and is at a low level over the years [4]. - The downstream demand for logs is weak. The daily average outbound volume of logs in ports has decreased, and the contradiction between high arrival pressure and weak downstream demand is prominent [5]. - There are many uncertainties in tariff and trade policies, which may affect the import and export of logs and the export of wood products. The lifting of the suspension of importing US logs may have limited short - term impact [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, both lower than the previous period. In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [4]. - Futures: As of November 12, the log main contract 2601 closed at 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, continuing the weak oscillation [4]. Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly increase of 8 vessels, and the total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, 12 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 4 fewer than last week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 395,000 cubic meters, 136,000 cubic meters less than last week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [4]. - From November 3 - 9, 2025, 16 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 531,000 cubic meters, 37,000 cubic meters more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase [4]. - In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a 12.4% year - on - year decrease [4]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week [5]. - The high arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. The inventory accumulation is expected to last until mid - November and may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [5]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from last week; that at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from last week [5]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. There is a risk of some log ships being stranded at Taicang Port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, and the risk of over - dependence on a single source is increasing [6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an indirect impact on the log futures market. The adjustment of the construction industry structure is beneficial to the log futures market sentiment [6]. - The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the US in May is beneficial to wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish [6]. - In July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days was extended again, and the uncertainty of China's wood product export costs remains [6]. - In October, there were news of various tariff changes, which may affect global trade directions [6]. - The EU and Mexico have taken anti - dumping measures against Chinese wood products [6]. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs since November 10, 2025, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited [6]. - The freight cost of Russian logs has increased, and the price of Russian logs has risen by 11% - 14% [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract in various regions was successful, and the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is considered a cost - effective delivery product [7]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery in multiple places, ensuring the stable operation of the market [7]. - Attention should be paid to the delivery of domestic cryptomeria in Chongqing for the 11 contract this week [7]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a 23.84% month - on - month increase and an 8.02% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a 3.75% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of November 4, the capital in - place rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, with a month - on - month increase. The capital in - place situation of real estate projects has improved, but the log demand side is still weak [7]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract was weak in the off - season of the second quarter and rose from July to August. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [8]. - The 2511 contract rose in September and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The demand in the traditional peak season this year was average, and the futures price quickly corrected after the holiday in October [8]. - The 2601 contract was relatively strong when the 2511 contract declined. Recently, it began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the log price is under pressure [8].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with the northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. Under the agreement, China may increase the import of US soybeans, resulting in a very sufficient soybean supply. The oil mill operating rate drops again, easing the pressure on soybean meal inventory. The demand is strong. The price of soybean No. 1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the price of soybean meal will remain volatile [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The soybean No. 2601 contract fluctuates sharply around 4150, with intense long - short competition. The spot price is stable, and the market price of Fujin soybeans is around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands. The soybean meal 01 contract fluctuates around 3050. The spot price of soybean meal rises slightly, from 2970 yuan/ton to around 2990 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang. The basis weakens, and the premium on the futures market expands [4]. Domestic Production - The quality of domestic soybeans differentiates, and the output decreases slightly. According to the November report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, poor weather in North China leads to a decline in yield, and the total domestic soybean output is slightly adjusted down by 190,000 tons to 20.9 million tons, still higher than last year. As of November 7, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang drops to 90%; in Anhui, it drops to 89%; in Henan, it rises to 90%; in Shandong, it rises to 95%. The high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang are in high demand [4]. Import Situation - The import of domestic soybeans declines in October, with 9.48 million tons imported, a 26% month - on - month decrease and a 17.2% year - on - year increase. China and the US reach an agricultural product agreement, with China set to import tens of millions of tons of US soybeans and purchase at least 25 million tons annually in the next three years. Coupled with the previous over - purchase of South American soybeans, the domestic soybean supply will be very sufficient. Although China and the US have mutually reduced taxes, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the import cost of US soybeans is not low. The premium of Brazilian soybeans decreases, with great cost advantages. As of November 7, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills is 2.4375 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase; the port soybean inventory is 10.334 million tons, a month - on - month increase to a new high in recent years [5]. US Soybean Market - US soybeans fluctuate at a high level. The soybean import agreement between China and the US boosts US soybeans. The US government may end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the November supply - demand report. Currently, US soybeans may be at the end of the harvest season. Attention should be paid to the report's feedback on the trade agreement [5]. Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills drops again, and the soybean meal inventory decreases. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing declines due to high costs. As of November 7, the operating rate of oil mills is 49.67%, a significant month - on - month drop; the soybean crushing volume is 1.8057 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills is 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase, at a high level in recent years. The soybean meal production is 1.427 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 998,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal are 6.0015 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills are 7.75 days, a month - on - month decrease [5][6]. Feed Demand - The feed demand is strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and the farming continues to incur losses. As of November 7, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming is - 175.54 yuan per head; the self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 89.21 yuan per head. Currently, the adjustment of the reproductive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of reproductive sows is 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The inventory of reproductive sows in large - scale farms also decreases slightly, but the piglet production increases slightly, and the piglet sales decline; the phenomena of over - fattening and secondary fattening increase. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory is 436.8 million, a 29% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 23% year - on - year increase. In the poultry sector, the egg price drops again, the farming continues to incur losses, the culling of poultry increases, the inventory in October decreases slightly month - on - month, and it may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. The feed demand is strong [6].

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Macro-level factors like the potential end of the US government shutdown, the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and a more relaxed global monetary policy are favorable for copper prices, while on the supply-demand side, the recovery of Indonesian mines and weak short-term spot demand with high inventories may put pressure on the spot market in the future. In the short term, due to news stimulation, the market sentiment is strong and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, but in the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [3][4]. Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Today, the LME copper rose slightly, trading around $10,785, and the Shanghai copper also rose slightly, closing at 86,480. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper were basically stable, and the market sentiment was neutral [4]. - The Shanghai copper closed at 86,480, and the spot price was 88,610, with the spot at a premium of 130 points over the futures. The spot basis premium was 55 points, and the spot trading improved slightly. The LME spot discount narrowed to -$18 this week, and the external spot demand was average [3]. - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the Yangshan copper premium dropped to a recent low of $33.5, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The ratio of LME copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 8, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped to 496 points, with the external price ratio higher than the internal one [3]. Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the global trade pattern is gradually stabilizing, the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, and the global monetary policy tends to be loose, which is beneficial to copper prices; on the supply-demand side, Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but the spot demand remains weak in the short term, with high inventories, and there may be pressure on the spot side in the future [4]. - Technically, the technical form of Shanghai copper is neutral. In the short term, market sentiment is strong due to news such as the end of the US government shutdown, and copper prices may fluctuate at a high level. In the medium term, there is a contradiction between macro expectations and spot demand, with high uncertainty [4]. Future Concerns - Future attention should be paid to when the US government shutdown will end, whether the Fed's interest rate cut cycle can continue, and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are both decreasing, with slow inventory depletion. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large factories in the northwest [6]. - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. However, it is supported by industrial policies and market expectations. It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract bottomed out and rebounded, closing at 9220 yuan/ton on November 7 [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remained stable, with a slight increase in output; the operating rate in the northwest (Qinghai, Ningxia, Gansu) changed little; most silicon enterprises in Yunnan stopped production in late October, and some stopped in early November; some silicon enterprises in Sichuan may stop production partially. Overall, the output of industrial silicon decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon enterprises decreased month - on - month; the operating rate of silicone was basically stable; the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises changed little, with on - demand procurement. In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8% [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 552000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [6]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 53215 yuan/ton on November 7 [7]. - **Supply**: The output of polysilicon in October was 137400 tons, a slight increase from September. In November, with the successive shutdowns in the southwest production areas, the production schedule of polysilicon declined significantly [7]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand remained weak, and price transmission in the industrial chain was poor. Silicon wafer and battery prices were loose, and downstream crystal - pulling enterprises only maintained rigid - demand procurement. In September, the import volume of polysilicon was 1291.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28%; the export volume was 2149.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: There was little change in inventory recently, and there was still a possibility of inventory accumulation as subsequent orders decreased [7]. Price and Spread - **Industrial Silicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 and 421 oxygen - passed were unchanged from last week; the spread between Yunnan's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon and Xinjiang's 553 and 421 oxygen - passed industrial silicon remained stable compared with last week [10][14]. - **Polysilicon Price and Spread**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot prices of N - type dense material, P - type dense material, and P - type cauliflower material were unchanged from last week; the spread between N - type dense material and P - type dense material, and N - type dense material and P - type cauliflower material remained stable compared with last week [17][21]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica Stone**: As of November 7, 2025, the delivered prices of silicon coal in Ningxia and Xinjiang remained stable; the delivered prices of silica stone in Hubei, Xinjiang, and Yunnan remained stable [25]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports remained stable; the electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained stable [28]. - **Wood Chips and Graphite Electrodes**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of wood chips and charcoal in Yunnan, and high - power graphite electrodes in Jiangsu remained stable [32]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 7, 2025, the average prices of N - type silicon wafers decreased slightly compared with last week. Affected by weak terminal demand and cautious downstream procurement, silicon wafer prices decreased slightly, but the decline space may be limited due to cost support [34]. - **Batteries**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared with last week. The battery market continued to be weak, with component manufacturers pressing prices and battery manufacturers lowering quotes [38]. - **Components**: As of November 7, 2025, the prices of various types of TOPCon components remained stable. The market demand was differentiated, with large - size components having firm quotes due to domestic centralized project demand, while conventional - size components had high inventory and weak demand, with prices hovering at low levels [41]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China increased by 500 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the operating rate was basically stable [45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 7, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable, and they procured industrial silicon on - demand [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the market will run in an oscillating manner due to factors such as reduced steel mill profitability, lower iron - water production, and seasonal demand changes [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0854 million tons (-40,500 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1816 million tons (-54,000 tons) [5] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (-136,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 3.143 million tons (-175,900 tons) [5] - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.9254 million tons (-99,800 tons), with social inventory at 4.257 million tons (-51,100 tons) and steel mill inventory at 1.6684 million tons (-48,700 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1045 million tons (+38,600 tons), social inventory was 3.3302 million tons (+40,900 tons), and steel mill inventory was 774,300 tons (-2,300 tons) [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 156 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 15 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [5] - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. Iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, a 1.38% week - on - week increase; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a 0.8% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.03%, a 1.8% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.87%, a 2.12% week - on - week decrease [5] 3.2 Raw Materials - **Cost Support**: The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and main coking coal from Lvliang increased, while the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,570 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), main coking coal from Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [19] 3.3 Production - related Indicators - **Iron - water Production and Furnace Operating Rates**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 91.87%, a 23.54% week - on - week increase [24][28][33] - **Steel Output**: Rebar output decreased by 40,500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process output decreased by 37,900 tons week - on - week, and short - process output decreased by 2,600 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week but remained at a high level [38] 3.4 Demand - related Indicators - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar consumption decreased by 136,700 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 175,900 tons week - on - week [44] - **Construction Steel and Hot - rolled Coil Volumes**: As of November 7, the weekly average volume of building materials was 96,400 tons, remaining at a low level. The weekly average volume of hot - rolled coils was 28,800 tons. The output of cold - rolled coils was 838,400 tons, a 21,300 - ton week - on - week decrease, and the output continued to decline [48][53] 3.5 Inventory - related Indicators - **General Steel Inventory**: As of November 7, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 545,500 tons, a 9,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The total inventory of major steel products was 10.7474 million tons, a 25,800 - ton week - on - week decrease [56] - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 99,800 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons week - on - week [60] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 38,600 tons week - on - week, social inventory increased by 40,900 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week [65] 3.6 Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase [68] - **Automobile Industry**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy automobile production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new - energy automobile sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [72] - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Specifically, from January to September, the new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease; the completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. The sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a 0.8% decline; the sales amount of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, with a 0.6% decline. The funds in place for development enterprises from January to September totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, a 8.4% year - on - year decrease [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current iron ore supply and demand are weak. With the terminal demand in the off - season, steel mills' procurement is cautious. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile operation. The strategy is range - bound trading [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Logic - **Supply**: From November 3rd to November 9th, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3069 tons, a decrease of 144.5 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1810.8 tons, down 84.3 tons, and Brazilian shipments were 737.8 tons, down 126.3 tons. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2741.2 tons, a decrease of 477.2 tons. As of November 7th, the daily output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 46.87 tons, a decrease of 0.77 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.98%, down 0.98%. The mine concentrate inventory was 79.6 tons, a decrease of 9.95 tons [5] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7th, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons. After the emergency response to heavy pollution weather was lifted in many places in Hebei, the steel mills' willingness to actively overhaul was weak, and the short - term decline in pig iron output was limited [5] - **Inventory**: The inventory of imported ore continued to increase, the number of ships at the port decreased by 9 to 109. The pressure at the port was transferred to the port, and the steel mills' inventory rebounded from a low level, with the overall inventory increasing slightly [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly [5] - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills declined, and the price of imported ore oscillated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5] Price - The spot price oscillated and declined [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder oscillated at a low level [13][17] Relative Valuation - The ratio of steel to ore oscillated at a low level, and the ratio of ore to coke declined slightly [28] Supply - Global shipments decreased slightly, and the shipments of non - mainstream mines fluctuated slightly. Australian ore shipped to China and Brazilian ore shipments both decreased slightly. Shipments from FMG decreased, while those from BHP increased slightly. Shipmentsments from The Shipments from RT and VALE increased slightly. The shipping freight index increased slightly, the arrival volume decreased slightly, and the output of domestic iron concentrate decreased slightly [34][38][43][47][52][56][59] Demand - The profit of steel mill blast furnaces increased slightly, the profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline, and the pig iron output continued to decrease [65][71] Inventory - The port throughput changed little, and the port inventory continued to rise. The inventory of Australian ore increased slightly, and the inventory of Brazilian ore was at a high level. The inventory of coarse powder oscillated at a high level, and the inventory of lump ore increased slightly. The steel mills' consumption continued to decline, and the inventory of imported ore oscillated at a low level [78][82][90][98]

Report Information - Report Title: "Zhengzhou Cotton: Bullish Factors Exhausted, Continued Rise Losing Momentum" [1][6][21] - Research Team: Hongye Futures Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wang Xiaobei [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The impact of Xinjiang seed - cotton procurement on Zhengzhou cotton prices is gradually weakening as the procurement nears completion. The positive news from Sino - US trade has been priced in, and downstream demand is weakening marginally, with mainly rigid - demand restocking. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks the impetus for a continued rise. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be hedging pressure to some extent. Key factors to monitor are the macro - environment, demand, and policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Production and Price - As of October 30, the national new cotton picking progress was 87.1%, 1.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the national delivery rate was 90.4%, 3.5 percentage points higher; the national new cotton processing rate was 39.9%, 0.5 percentage points higher; and the national new cotton sales rate was 14.2%, 9.3 percentage points higher [4]. - As of November 4, 2025, the national new cotton inspection volume was 2.0819 million tons, still up 34.24% year - on - year, although the year - on - year growth rate had declined significantly compared to the previous period [4]. - Recently, the seed - cotton purchase price has generally remained stable, with some regional differences. In northern Xinjiang, the mainstream purchase price is stable at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram due to reduced resources; in southern Xinjiang, the mainstream price of high - lint, low - moisture and impurity seed cotton is maintained at 6.40 - 6.50 yuan per kilogram [4]. 2. Sino - US Trade Policy Impact - In late October and early November, the US and China adjusted tariffs. The US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl" tariff on Chinese goods and suspended the so - called 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year. China continued to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, retained the 10% additional tariff, and stopped implementing the relevant tariff announcement on imported US cotton (15%). The most direct impact of the mutual tariff reduction may be reflected in exports, stabilizing market expectations, and enhancing business confidence, but it is difficult to see a significant increase in export orders in the short term [5]. 3. Cotton Price Index and Market Price Movements - From October 30 to November 6, the price of the active contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose from 13,600 yuan/ton to 13,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the active contract of ICE cotton fell from 65.09 cents/pound to 64.48 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.61 cents/pound [7]. - The Cotlook A price index decreased from 77.4 cents/pound on October 30 to 0 (a decrease of 77.40 cents/pound) on November 6; the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged at 53,000 rupees/candy from October 30 to November 6 [9]. - The port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn from India, Vietnam, and Indonesia all increased slightly from October 30 to November 6. For example, the price of Indian C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton, Vietnam C32S by 30 yuan/ton, and Indonesia C32S by 30 yuan/ton [10]. - The arrival prices of imported cotton from the US and Brazil decreased from October 30 to November 6. For example, the 1% tariff price of US EMOT M decreased by 141 yuan/ton, and the 1% tariff price of Brazilian cotton decreased by 192 yuan/ton [11]. 4. US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease from the same period last year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [20]. 5. Domestic Cotton Inventory and Sales - As of November 5, 2024, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was about 2.1578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 31.82% [36]. - As of this Thursday, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,281 sheets; the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 18 sheets [59]. 6. Downstream Market Conditions - The downstream raw material inventory of yarn mills (cotton) and fabric mills (cotton yarn) is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [40]. - The downstream start - up load and finished - product inventory situation is presented in relevant charts, but specific data is not explicitly described in the text [43]. 7. Price Difference and Profit Situation - As of this Thursday, the 328 cotton spot price index was 20,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 19,870 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 70 yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was 14,820 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn was 13,605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the basis between them was 1,215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of 50 yuan/ton [48]. - As of this Thursday, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under the sliding - scale tariff was - 616 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26 yuan/ton; the price difference with the 1% tariff was 724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port pick - up price was 1,624 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 149 yuan/ton [50]. - As of this Thursday, on the futures market, the price difference between the main contract of Zhengzhou yarn and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 6,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week expansion of - 1,486 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 30 yuan/ton, and the loss margin expanded by 70 yuan/ton week - on - week [52].

Report Title and Details - Report title: Log Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Price Under Pressure [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [1] - Research institution: Hongye Financial Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] - Qualification number: F03114700 [1] - Investment consulting number: Z0022394 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The log market is currently facing the pressure of high arrivals and weak demand, with spot prices continuing to be under pressure and expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. If the November foreign market price is slightly adjusted upwards as expected, it may provide some cost support for spot prices [8] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period. The price of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port decreased. In October 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter Medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month. Overall, the spot price of logs is running weakly, and the price - cut specifications are mainly knot - free timber, Medium A, Small A, and pulpwood [3] - Futures: As of the close on November 6, the main log contract 2601 closed at 779 yuan/cubic meter, showing a weak oscillation after a decline [3] Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, an increase of 8 compared to the previous month, and the total shipment volume was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from 1.766 million cubic meters in September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from 1.472 million cubic meters in September. The recent arrival volume is relatively large, at a high level in the same period over the years [3] - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, 17 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 2 compared to the previous week, a 13% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume is about 571,000 cubic meters, an increase of 77,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 16% week - on - week increase [3] - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, 15 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 compared to the previous week, a 25% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 494,000 cubic meters, an increase of 46,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 10% week - on - week increase [3] - In September 2025, China imported 4.669 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to August, the import volume of logs and sawn timber was 42.176 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. Overall, the import volume in September continued to decline, significantly reduced compared to 2024, and at a low level over the years [3] Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as the previous week [4] - Overall, supported by the peak downstream demand season, the inventory is weakly stable. Due to the overall low previous arrival volume, the national coniferous log inventory is in a destocking state. The inventory of radiata pine, the main inventory tree species in China, continues to be destocked, and the North American timber inventory remains at a low level [4] Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.48% compared to the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 9.89% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, an increase of 4.29% compared to the previous week [4] - The national log outbound volume continues the downward trend. According to MULIAN news, some log vessels at Taicang Port are at risk of being stranded at the port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong. The core contradiction is that the port arrival pressure continues to be relatively large, while the downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, resulting in increased sales pressure on traders, who generally offer price promotions [4] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports show an obvious characteristic of resource concentration, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating towards high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source continues to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the impact of international price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions on domestic processing enterprises [5] - The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost during the off - season this year. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between log downstream construction timber and coke reaches 0.9. To a certain extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market. The previous indirect boost and decline of the anti - involution policy have been reflected in the market [5] - The May China - US Geneva Joint Statement will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for glued laminated timber and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the accelerated destocking of logs. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [5] - In July, the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff and counter - tariff for 90 days in the China - US economic and trade talks was extended again. There is still uncertainty about the export cost of Chinese wood products [5] - In October, there were various tariff change news again. The US - EU trade agreement included timber in the scope of a 15% tariff ceiling, marking a structural reduction in the US - EU timber trade barriers. The new tariff imposed by the United States on timber took effect on Tuesday (October 14). The new tariff imposes an ad - valorem tariff of 10% on the import of softwood timber and lumber and 25% on some upholstered wood products, and the tax rate will increase again next year. This news mainly affects Vietnam, Canada, and Mexico on the one hand and may also have an impact on the global trade direction on the other hand [5] - The European Commission announced the imposition of higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, which will take effect on December 7, 2025. The Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an announcement making a positive preliminary anti - dumping determination on cardboard originating from China [5] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract progressed smoothly in various regions. The market believes that the cost - effective delivery product is the 5.9 Medium A specification, which can have a premium of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the benchmark product for delivery. Multiple regions attempted the first delivery of the 09 contract, providing strong support for the stable operation of the market [6] - Summary of the 09 contract delivery: The log 2509 contract had 136 paired delivery lots, a decrease of 89% compared to the 1281 paired lots of the 07 contract; 131 lots were successfully delivered, with a delivery success rate of 96.3%. According to MULIAN news, as the delivery month approaches, some processing factories said that they will reduce the spot purchase of logs in the near future and wait for the delivery goods of the 11 contract to flow out. The downstream generally recognizes the overall quality of the delivery standard products [6] Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [6] - In terms of real estate data, the shipment and outbound volume continue to be poor year - on - year. Indicators such as new construction starts and funds in place all reflect the downward trend of the real estate market. In September, the funds in place for real estate development were 1.19281 trillion yuan, showing an improving trend compared to the summer off - season, but with a relatively large decline compared to the same period in previous years. The demand side of logs remains weak [6] Strategy and Suggestions - Looking back at the previous trends, the 2509 contract continued to weaken during the off - season in the second quarter, but had a large increase from July to August, mainly driven by the shortage of some specifications, the increase in foreign market quotes, and the inventory - building demand brought by the approaching delivery of the 09 contract. The spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the still cautious market expectation for future real estate demand, the near - and far - month contracts showed a differentiated trend after entering the delivery month [8] - In September, the main contract was 2511. The price increased and then quickly decreased before approaching the delivery month. The increase was driven by the foreign market price adjustment on the one hand and the expectation of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" on the other hand. Although September and October are the traditional peak seasons for wood processing and furniture production, the peak - season demand performance this year was average, with the average daily outbound volume stable at around 60,000 cubic meters, without a significant increase. After the National Day holiday in October, the futures price quickly corrected, reflecting that the market's pessimistic expectation for downstream demand has not been reversed. The weak fundamentals of the real estate industry continue, and coupled with the end of pre - holiday inventory building, the price was under pressure to decline [8] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined rapidly. The decline of the 2511 contract was relatively large, and the price difference structure between the near - and far - month contracts was significantly differentiated. On the one hand, some markets were trading on the expectation that "China's special port dues on US ships will increase the log import cost", but with the progress of the China - US economic and trade consultations in late October, the futures price quickly corrected. On the other hand, the log procurement peak season is usually earlier than the real estate peak season. As the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" comes to an end, furniture and export - oriented timber orders are likely to decrease, and the demand for glued laminated timber and knot - free timber will decrease. In the short term, the 2601 contract began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level [8] - The current downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in terms of tariffs and real estate. The far - month contracts may enter the delivery period with a discount structure again. The log market still faces the fundamental pressure of high arrivals and weak demand in the future, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure, fluctuating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see. According to Ganglian news, the foreign market price in November may be between 115 - 118 US dollars. If the slight increase is realized, it may provide some cost support for the spot price [8]