Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2025, the float glass market was in a state of "weak demand recovery - slow supply clearance - high inventory platform", with prices fluctuating around the cost line. The rebound height depends on the de - stocking slope, and the sustainability depends on the cold - repair intensity and restart constraints [1][5]. - In 2026, under the baseline scenario, glass will still operate around the cost zone. A strong - trending scenario relies on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance; a weak scenario corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation [6]. - In terms of strategies, industrial clients should lock in costs at low prices and seize selling - hedging opportunities during rebounds. Financial clients are more suitable to express views through basis, inter - period, and volatility tools and prioritize tail - risk management [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Float Glass Futures Market Review - **Market Overview**: In 2025, the glass market was in a state of "sticky bottom - grinding". The main contract price moved closer to the cost line with significantly reduced volatility, showing a weak downward trend throughout the year with only a short - term rebound at the end of the year. The price was suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, and the fundamental problem was the slow repair of the real - estate chain [5]. - **Futures Market Capital Behavior and Volatility**: In 2025, the market consensus was that supply clearance would be slow and demand would not reverse strongly in the short term. Volatility converged from a high level, and trading activity was high. Strategies shifted from "direction" to "structure", and tail - risk management was prioritized [15]. - **Basis and Futures - Spot Structure**: The futures market reacts to expectations faster than the spot market and is more likely to price in pessimistic sentiment in advance. The basis is mostly a moderate positive value, providing space for basis regression and inter - period structure trading. In the current stage, grasping futures - spot structure and basis changes can improve the winning rate [17]. II. Float Glass Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply: Persistence and Constraints of Cold - Repair**: In 2025, the daily output of float glass remained high, and cold - repair had not been released on a large scale. The cold - repair decision has a threshold effect and is more likely to occur intensively under certain conditions. Cost and profit differentiation affect supply elasticity. Three key supply - side signals should be focused on [19][22][23]. - **Demand: Real Estate Remains the Foundation**: In 2025, the apparent demand for float glass decreased by about 9.3% year - on - year. The real - estate policy and sales data have a time - lag effect on glass demand. Deep - processing and energy - saving glass show structural resilience, and exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but cannot reverse the overall situation [27][28]. - **Inventory: Passivation Effect of High - Level Platform**: As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.227 million heavy boxes, a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. There is a "passivation effect" on price rebounds. Price and inventory are negatively correlated on a monthly basis, and the inventory inflection point often leads the rise of the price center [38]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, the export volume index of float glass fluctuated at a high level year - on - year, while the import index declined. Exports play a marginal role in diverting supply but are affected by multiple factors and are less stable than domestic consumption [44]. III. Float Glass Cost - Profit: Profit Structure Determines Supply Elasticity and Rebound Height - The cost line of glass provides a dynamic "hard constraint" on the price. Profit differentiation intensifies the range - bound oscillation. In 2026, for a trend - upward movement, continuous inventory decline and relatively stable cost lines are required [46]. IV. 2026 Market Outlook: Three Scenario Analyses - **Baseline Scenario**: Glass will operate around the cost zone, and a strong upward trend requires the resonance of continuous inventory de - stocking and improved real - estate funding. - **Stronger Scenario**: It depends on accelerated cold - repair and improved de - stocking slope due to short - term demand outperformance. - **Weaker Scenario**: It corresponds to weaker demand and further inventory accumulation, with prices possibly falling below the cash cost of most routes [6]. - Three main lines of tracking are proposed: inventory, profit and supply, and demand. Key monitoring indicators are also provided [53][55]. V. Strategy Recommendations - **Industrial Clients**: The strategy design should shift from "single - point prediction" to "path management". A three - layer framework is proposed, including baseline hedging, rhythm hedging, and risk hedging. - **Upstream Producers**: When the price is at the upper edge of the cost zone or the basis converges significantly, start selling hedging. High - cost producers can have a higher hedging ratio and maintain flexibility when the inventory inflection point is established and cold - repair continues [56]. - **Traders and Deep - Processing Enterprises**: Buy in batches at low prices to lock in costs. During rebounds, focus on "locking in profits" rather than "chasing high prices". Deep - processing enterprises should link internal management leading indicators with hedging rhythms [57]. - **Financial Traders**: In a high - inventory and low - volatility environment, use basis and inter - period strategies. Options should be used for risk hedging [58].

原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，而美国页岩油受投资不足和油 价低迷制约，难有明显增量，此外，地缘局势演变，尤其是俄乌冲突与伊核问 题的走向，将继续扰动原油供给侧。而需求侧受经济增长乏力制约，整体前景 难言乐观，预计 2026 年全球石油需求 ...

弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 新粮销售分化，玉米阶段回调明 显 2025年12月19日 玉米主力换月2603合约，近期大幅回落，几乎吞没前期涨幅。现货价格小幅回落，其中鲅鱼圈玉米平舱价由2320元 /吨落至2290元/吨；蛇口港玉米到港价由2460元/吨落至2430元/吨。玉米基差震荡走强，盘面贴水扩大。 淀粉主力换月2603合约，近期持续回调。潍坊金玉米淀粉价格由2820元/吨小跌至2800元/吨，基差震荡走强。 （1）进口再拍卖及跌价引阶段卖压，新粮销售区域分化。进口玉米再拍卖打压市场涨价热潮，期价大幅回落；跌 价引起阶段出售增加。当前农户仍有惜售情绪，自媒体等信息传播使得农户行为趋同。据钢联：截至12月18日，全国售 粮总进度为42%，同比快4%；其中东北地区为41%，同比快8%；华北地区为37%，同比慢1%；西北地区为60%，同比快2%。 全国新粮销售仍偏快，但区域分化明显，东北加速，华北偏慢；因华北粮质分化，市场青睐优粮。 （2）港口库存偏低，下游企业继续增库。据钢联数据：截至12月12日，北港玉米库存为179.2万吨，继续回升，但 远低 ...

农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年度报告 2026 ANNUAL REPORT 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年报：国际环境多变，豆系走势分化 摘要： 供应方面：国内种植结构调整接近完成，大豆种植面积逐渐趋稳，大 豆单产水平增长放缓，大豆产量持续增加。新豆销售较快，但品质分化， 东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。进口大豆持续创纪录，尽管此前中美贸易摩擦，进 口美豆暂停，但南美取代替位，贸易和谈后进口美豆或恢复常态。从全球 供需来看，美豆播种面积相对稳定，新季度产量下降，出口下降，但其压 榨增加，期末库存止升转降；南美巴西大豆产量及出口均持续增加，阿根 廷降税等措施促进其大豆出口，弱拉尼娜预期对南美新季大豆产量预计影 响有限；全球大豆期末库存仍在高位。 需求方面：国内油厂大豆库存充足，且明年 1 季度美豆补充，油厂开 机率高于去年，豆粕产量高，豆粕库存较高；压榨需求或好于预期。下游 畜禽高存栏支撑豆粕饲料需求，但养殖长期大幅亏损或加速后期去产能步 伐，且政策上饲料豆粕使用减量、替代，饲企对豆粕需求并不迫切。 技术方面：豆系均处于熊市底部，但豆一有企稳迹象，豆粕 ...

年报 2025 年 12 月 摘要： 展望 2026 中国经济，投资方面，政府财政规模严格受限，货币宽松有度， 投资总额可能延续 25 年温和增长的态势；外贸方面，国际形势更加复杂，2026 年可能小幅增长；消费可能成为未来中国最重要的经济支撑和政策抓手。 中美贸易协议持续至 2026 年 11 月，因此美国关税政策可能不会出现更多 变化。美联储现任主席鲍威尔任期持续至 5 月 15 日，新任主席为哈塞特或沃 尔什，预计两者都会顺应特朗普大幅宽松和持续降息的想法，2026 年下半年 可能再次迎来降息周期。 现货方面重点关注美国铜库存情况。目前美铜库存已经累积至 55 万吨左 右，足够扭转全球铜现货供需格局，所以导致全球铜现货供应紧张，成为 12 月铜价大涨的主导因素之一。 研究员： 张天骜 南京大学理学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学 硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱： zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 年报 2025-12 总体而言，2026 铜价首要决定性因素仍是中美货币政策和财政政策；次 要影响因素是全球经济数据和就业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets showed a pattern of weak operation in the first half and a rebound in the second half. The overall supply - demand situation was loose, and it is expected that the supply - demand pattern in the second half of 2025 will continue in 2026. The prices of coking coal and coke will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the supply of imported coal, and terminal consumption [2][15][79] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Review of Futures Market Trends and Spot Price Tracking - In 2025, the coking coal and coke markets continued the weak pattern of 2024 in the first half, with prices falling due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, and other factors. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, coal production decreased, and the supply - demand pattern improved, leading to a price rebound. However, in November, the prices declined due to the off - season of terminal demand [8][9] - Spot prices of coking coal first fell and then rose, while coke prices experienced multiple rounds of price cuts in the first half and price increases in the second half, with a complex price adjustment process throughout the year [12][13] II. Coking Coal Supply Analysis 1. Slight Increase in Domestic Coking Coal Production, with Output Contraction in the Second Half - In 2025, the overall supply of domestic coking coal was loose. From January to October, the cumulative output of raw coal was 397,319 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The output of raw coal in Shanxi had a significant driving effect, with a cumulative output of 108,486 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [17] - The operating rate and daily output of mines and coal washing plants increased after the Spring Festival, but decreased from May to June due to safety and environmental protection inspections. In the second half, due to the anti - involution policy, the operating rate and output remained low [16][18] - The coal washing process showed a contraction trend, with the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants lower than the previous year. The daily output of clean coal remained low and fluctuated little [21] - It is expected that the growth rate of raw coal output will slow down in 2026, and the supply will remain at a low level, mainly for energy supply security. Attention should be paid to the raw coal production in Shanxi, Xinjiang and other regions [24] 2. Year - on - Year Contraction of Imported Coking Coal, with Mongolian and Russian Coal Dominating - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 94.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia were the top two import sources, accounting for nearly 80% [26] - Mongolian coal imports from January to October were 47.71 million tons, ranking first. Although there was a slight year - on - year decrease, the volume was still at a relatively high level in recent five years. After the second half of the year, imports increased due to the price difference, but decreased in October due to political instability and then recovered [29][31] - Russian coal imports from January to October were 26.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.46%. Although there was a decline in May, the long - term contract volume was relatively stable. Russia may increase its coal exports to China in the future [32] - US coal imports were severely hit, and imports basically stopped from May, with a cumulative import of only 2.91 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year decrease of 65.7% [32] - It is expected that in 2026, with stricter domestic coal production control, the increase in coking coal supply will mainly come from overseas imports, and the main sources will still be Mongolia and Russia [37] III. Coke Supply Analysis - Coke supply showed a self - regulating trend affected by corporate profitability and operating pressure, but the overall supply was still loose. In 2025, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises hovered around the break - even point, but production willingness was not greatly affected [38] - The production capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was stable at around 70% - 75%, and the daily output of coke fluctuated in the range of 62 - 670,000 tons. The production capacity utilization rate of steel mills' self - owned coking plants decreased in the second half of the year, and the daily output also declined significantly [40] - It is expected that if steel demand continues to weaken in 2026, coke over - capacity will face pressure. Due to the large base of coking production capacity, the possibility of large - scale production cuts is low, and coke supply will remain rigid and relatively loose [46] IV. Double - Coking Demand Analysis 1. International Demand: Tense International Trade Situation Affects Coke Exports - In 2025, coke exports continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was about 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.0%. The main export market was Southeast Asia, accounting for 56% [48] - If overseas steel demand does not improve significantly in 2026 and competition in Southeast Asian markets intensifies, China's coke exports will still be under pressure [52] 2. Domestic Demand: Good Resilience of Downstream Rigid Demand, Weak Terminal Real Estate Demand - In 2025, the blast furnace operating rate and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills in the country were generally high. Although terminal demand was weak in the second half of the year, molten iron output still had resilience. However, from January to October, the cumulative output of pig iron and crude steel decreased slightly year - on - year [53][57] - Terminal demand was weak, mainly affected by weak domestic demand and the continuous downturn of the real estate market. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and completion area all decreased significantly year - on - year [61] - In 2026, the risk of loose supply and demand will continue. Steel mills may face phased production contraction pressure, and attention should be paid to policy support for the real estate market and the implementation of the crude steel reduction system [62][65] V. Double - Coking Inventory Analysis 1. Coking Coal: Mine - End Inventory Declined from High Levels, and Downstream Maintained Low Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the coking coal inventory structure was characterized by high mine - end inventory, stable mid - stream inventory, and low terminal inventory, which suppressed prices. In the second half, mine - end inventory decreased significantly, and the inventory structure improved [66] - The clean coal inventory of sample mines decreased in the second half of the year after reaching a high level in the first half. The inventory of sample coal washing plants was relatively stable in the second half after being gradually depleted in the first half. The inventory of downstream independent coking plants and steel mills was relatively stable in the second half after being in a state of depletion or low - level fluctuation in the first half [66][67] - Coking coal port inventory decreased in the first half and remained stable in the second half, at a medium - level in the past five years [69] 2. Coke: Coking Plant Inventory Depleted, and Steel Mill and Port Inventory Remained High - In the first half of 2025, coke inventory pressure was significant, with coking enterprise inventory reaching a high level before the Spring Festival and remaining high throughout the first half. In the second half, coking plant inventory decreased rapidly but began to accumulate in November [73] - Currently, coking plant inventory is at a medium - low level in the same period of previous years but is accumulating. Steel mill coke inventory is at a high level in the past four years, and port coke inventory is at a high level overall [75] VI. Outlook - In terms of supply in 2026, domestic coking coal supply growth is limited due to policy influence, and the increase mainly comes from imports, with Mongolian and Russian coal accounting for about 80% [79] - In terms of demand, domestic steel demand is under pressure, mainly relying on the export market for growth. The overall supply - demand pressure of coking coal and coke still exists, and prices will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy [79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cotton planting area in the US may remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to whether the planting area in the Southern Hemisphere will decrease [2][105]. - There is uncertainty about the cotton planting area under policy guidance. Although the market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the planting area in 2026, it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [2][111]. - The international economic and trade environment is gradually improving, and the phased easing of Sino - US trade relations reduces export tariffs, improving the export outlook for textiles. Coupled with the continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, it is beneficial for domestic cotton consumption [2][111]. - The cotton price was at a low level for a long time in the 2024/2025 season, and the current valuation is in a historically low range. As the supply - demand pattern improves and market sentiment recovers, valuation repair will be an important driving force for price increases [2][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **ICE Narrow - Range Fluctuation**: In 2025, the US cotton production decreased year - on - year. Due to continuous Sino - US tariff conflicts and China's small volume of signing US cotton contracts, the ICE US cotton continuous contract showed a fluctuating trend, mostly in the range of 65 - 68 cents. After the US government's record - breaking shutdown, the price center of ICE US cotton moved down since the third quarter, generally maintaining in the range of 63 - 66 cents [10]. - **ZCE First Declined and Then Rose, with Overall Low Valuation**: Supported by the downstream raw material replenishment and order - grabbing expectations, Zhengzhou cotton rose moderately at the beginning of the year. Affected by tariffs, it started to decline in late February, especially after the US announced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the beginning of April, Zhengzhou cotton tumbled. After the Geneva talks between China and the US in early May, Zhengzhou cotton soared. With the marginal weakening of the negative impact of tariffs and concerns about the supply before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise until late July. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of new cotton production increase, the overall increase was not significant [10][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Output Increased Slightly Year - on - Year, Focus on the Cotton Planting Area in the Southern Hemisphere - **Global Cotton Ending Stocks Increased, with Overall Low Pressure**: According to the December USDA report, compared with the previous month, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 120,000 bales, the production estimate decreased by 290,000 bales, and the consumption estimate decreased by 270,000 bales, with the ending stocks estimate increasing by 40,000 bales. In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 1.21 million bales year - on - year, the production estimate increased by 510,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 320,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 1.36 million bales, but the overall pressure was not great [12]. - **Improved Import Demand for Textiles and Clothing in Europe and the US**: - **Consumer Confidence**: In November, the US Michigan consumer confidence index was 51, down 2.6 points month - on - month and had been declining for three consecutive months, rising to 53.3 in December. The EU consumer confidence index was - 13.6 in November, basically flat month - on - month, and - 12.4 in December, down 1.2 points month - on - month and up 5.1 points year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the same period in the past three years since March [14]. - **Import Volume**: In September, the EU's textile and clothing imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the US were 5.66 billion euros, up 380 million euros month - on - month and slightly up 50 million euros year - on - year. From January to September, the EU's cumulative imports from these four countries were 43.675 billion euros, up 4.213 billion euros year - on - year. In September, the US imported a total of $10.582 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down $1.161 billion year - on - year, a decrease of 9.89%. From January to September, the US's cumulative imports were $90.413 billion, down $210 million year - on - year. China's share in the US market dropped significantly, with cumulative imports from China being $16.912 billion, down $6.352 billion year - on - year, and the market share dropping by 6.96 percentage points compared with the same period last year [16]. - **开机率 in Southeast Asia**: The开机率 of Indian and Vietnamese spinning mills showed a downward trend, while that of Pakistani spinning mills showed an upward trend and was at the highest level in the same period in the past three years, performing the best [22][26]. - **Slow Progress of US Cotton Export Sign - ups**: - **High Ending Stocks and Limited Production Adjustment Space**: In December, compared with November, the US cotton production estimate decreased by 150,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 100,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. The 2025/2026 US cotton planting area was expected to be 9.3 million acres, the harvested area was estimated to be 7.37 million acres, the yield per acre was estimated to be 929 pounds, and the total production was 14.268 million bales, down 145,000 bales year - on - year [29]. - **Slow Overall Sign - ups and a Sharp Drop in China's Sign - ups**: As of the week of November 13, the weekly sign - up of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week, up 10% from the four - week average, and up 22% year - on - year. The total sign - up volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.2706 million tons, accounting for 49% of the annual predicted total export volume, 12 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's total sign - up volume was 37,000 tons, a significant decrease of 74% compared with the same period last year [37][42]. - **Slow US Cotton Inspection**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower year - on - year. Considering the 10% production reduction this year, the inspection speed was comparable to that of last year [45]. - **Supply - Demand Situation in Other Cotton - Producing Countries**: - **Accumulated Inventory in India**: In the 2025/26 season, India's cotton beginning stocks increased by 710,000 bales year - on - year, the export volume estimate was basically flat year - on - year, the import volume estimate decreased slightly by 240,000 bales year - on - year, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 500,000 bales year - on - year to the highest level in the past three years [50]. - **Divergent Estimates of Brazilian Cotton Production**: Brazilian institutions had different forecasts for the increase or decrease of Brazilian cotton production in 2025/26, but the market expected that the cotton planting area in Brazil would be difficult to increase this season. The USDA report showed that the Brazilian cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 18.75 million bales, a 10% increase year - on - year [58][60]. - **Probable Decrease in Australian Cotton Production**: Affected by factors such as insufficient irrigation water supply, poor soil moisture during the sowing period, rising planting costs, and better returns from competing crops, Australia's cotton planting area was expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season. The latest USDA report showed that Australia's cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 4.5 million bales, a 2.3% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Domestic Market Supply - Demand Situation - **Substantial Increase in Production**: - **Increased Production and Low Imports**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production estimate increased by 1.5 million bales year - on - year to 33.5 million bales, reaching a new high since 2013, and consumption decreased slightly by 500,000 bales to 38.5 million bales. Imports were expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 320,000 bales year - on - year to 351.62 million bales, at a high level in the past five years [64]. - **Non - Concentrated Pima Cotton Costs and Faster Sales**: As of December 11, the national Pima cotton processing rate was 84%, 2.2 percentage points higher year - on - year, and the sales rate was 41.6%, 23.5 percentage points higher year - on - year [68]. - **Flat Commercial Stocks Year - on - Year**: As of the end of November, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 4.68 million tons, a significant increase of 1.753 million tons month - on - month due to the listing of new cotton, and basically flat year - on - year, at the highest level in the same period in recent years [72]. - **First Decline and Then Rise in the Domestic - Foreign Price Difference and a Sharp Drop in Cotton Imports**: In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, down 10,000 tons month - on - month and 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a significant decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 67.5% [76]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand and Poor Exports**: - **Recovery of Cotton Spinning PMI in the Fourth Quarter**: In November, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased slightly by 2 points month - on - month, and the decline was significantly narrower than in the same period of last year and the year before. The overall trend of cotton spinning PMI was similar to that of last year, not as good as in 2023, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [86]. - **Poor Overall Spinning Mill Operation**: The domestic spinning mill operation load was basically at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years this year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. As of this week, the spinning mill operation load index was 51, and the finished - product inventory was 27.6 days. The cloth mill operation rate reached a phased high in early April and then fluctuated and declined, and started to recover in August. As of this week, the cloth mill operation load index was 51.7, and the finished - product inventory was 31.2 days [87]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand**: In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 147.08 billion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1.20528 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than in the same period last year [95]. - **Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Textile and Clothing Exports, with Overall Declines in Exports to the US and ASEAN**: In November, domestic textile and clothing exports were $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 7 percentage points narrower than in the previous month. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were $267.79 billion, a slight 1.9% year - on - year decrease. Exports to ASEAN and the US decreased significantly, while exports to the EU market remained stable [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Possible Stable but Slightly Declining US Cotton Planting Area, Focus on Whether the Southern Hemisphere's Area Will Decrease**: Based on the soybean/cotton and corn/cotton price - ratio trends, the current price ratios are significantly higher than last year. Judging from the price ratios alone, the US cotton planting area in 2026 is likely to remain stable with a slight decline compared to 2025. The Brazilian cotton planting area is expected to be difficult to increase this season, and the Australian cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season [2][105]. - **Uncertainty about the Cotton Planting Area under Policy Guidance**: In 2026, a new cotton target price will be formulated. The market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the cotton planting area in 2026, but it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price differentiation with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][64]. - In the future, under the reshaping of the global trade pattern, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold due to triple - driven factors [1][64]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **External Market (New York Gold and Silver)**: Since the beginning of the year, both New York gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern, hitting new highs. By December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 52.86%, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of 101.40% [6]. - **Domestic Market (Shanghai Gold and Silver)**: The trends of Shanghai gold and silver were basically in line with the external market. By December 11, Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram, with a year - to - date increase of 52.39%, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of 88.75% [7]. - **Five Trading Stages in 2025**: From January to March, the trading logic was risk - aversion, with gold leading the rise. From April, the focus was on tariff policies, causing a price correction. From June to September, it was about the repair of the gold - silver ratio and the support of the industrial attribute, with silver rising significantly. From September to November, the main logic was the interest - rate cut expectation. From November onwards, it was the supply - demand relationship of silver, which further pushed up the silver price [9][10][12][13]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: It continued to rise at the beginning of the year, then soared in April due to tariff policies, and started to repair in June. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, with the domestic and foreign ratios gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Fundamentals**: - **GDP**: The release of the Q3 2025 GDP data was postponed. The Q2 2025 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%. The Atlanta Fed's model predicted a 3.9% growth rate for Q3 [19]. - **PMI**: The manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2%, indicating an accelerating contraction. The service PMI was 52.6%, showing continued expansion but with a downward trend in the average level over the past 12 months [20][22]. - **Inflation**: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. The 9 - month CPI and core CPI were in line with or lower than market expectations. Consumer inflation expectations showed a decline in the short - term and stability in the medium - and long - term [25][27][29]. - **Employment**: In September, non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000. However, subsequent data such as Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims eased market concerns [31]. - **US Dollar Index**: It first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, the strength of US economic data and the Fed's monetary policy expectations drove its movement. In the long term, US fiscal sustainability, dollar credit, and global central bank policy differentiation were the influencing factors. The long - term trend of the US dollar may be weak, which supported the gold price [35][36]. - **Tariff Policy**: It went through four stages: full - scale tariff increase from January to March, establishment of the "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustment from November to December. The tariff policy had a greater impact on precious metal prices in the first half of the year [38][39][42][43]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Expectation**: The Fed's interest - rate cut path in 2025 had three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to the cooling labor market, and the implementation of the third rate cut in December with internal differences. The future interest - rate path is uncertain [44][45][47]. - **Geopolitics**: The US strategic adjustment and regional armed conflicts increased global uncertainty, driving up the prices of gold and silver. Global central banks' gold - buying and investment demand supported the gold price, while high gold prices suppressed gold jewelry consumption [50][51][53]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Gold**: Investment demand was strong, with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings and active physical investment. Central banks' net gold purchases in the first three quarters reached 634 tons. However, gold jewelry consumption declined, with a 19% year - on - year decline in the third quarter [51][53]. - **Silver**: The supply was rigid, with stagnant mine production and limited growth in recycled silver. The demand was strong, driven by both industry and investment. The industrial demand, especially from the photovoltaic industry, was the main growth engine. The World Silver Institute estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces (about 3660 tons) in 2025 [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economic indicators and the changing trading logic supported the precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, and the weakening US dollar will support precious metals. Silver will benefit from triple - driven factors and is expected to continue rising with high volatility and outperform gold [64].

锡高位调整 前期刚果（金）矿端供应扰动担忧情绪导致市场对于全球锡紧张加剧，沪锡主力合约盘 中最高接近 34 万元。本周印尼出口大幅回升背景下，供应端担忧有所缓解。 最新贸易数据显示，印尼 11 月的精炼锡出口量环比大幅增长，近乎达到原来的三倍， 具体出口量为 7458.64 吨，环比增加 182.2%，同比增加 25.59%。1-11 月累计出口 48047.57 吨，累计同比增加 16.31%。印尼 11 月精炼锡出口恢复正常，担忧情绪有所缓解，锡价承压 回落。 弘业期货金融研究院 蔡丽 从业资格号 F0236769 投资咨询从业证书号 Z0000716 电话：025-52278446 免责声明： 本报告的著作权属于苏豪弘业期货股份有限公司。未经苏豪弘业期货股份有 限公司书面授权，任何人不得更改或以任何方式发送、翻版、复制或传播此报告 的全部或部分材料、内容。如引用、刊发，须注明出处为苏豪弘业期货股份有限 公司，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本报告基于苏豪弘业期货股份有限公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料 或实地调研资料，仅反映本报告作者的不同设想、见解及分析方法，但苏豪弘业 期货股份有限 ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 蔡 丽 从业资格证号： F0236769 投资咨询资格证号： Z00100716 铅锌年报 2025-12 锌：矿端增速放缓 锌震荡中枢有望上移 2026 年锌市或将呈现"紧平衡凸显、库存低位支撑、出口窗口助力"的核 心格局，上半年受宏观利好及库存支撑偏强，下半年需关注需求兑现情况及供 给增量。锌价全年大概率维持区间震荡偏强态势，震荡中枢或有所上移。需重 点跟踪海外矿山关停进度、国内出口数据及新兴领域需求落地情况。 铅：区间震荡 铅重心或有下移 2025 年铅供需缺口逐渐缩窄，全年供需预计紧平衡状态。2026 年供应边 际宽松，消费增速回落，铅供需将从紧平衡转向小幅过剩。上半年受原料端成 本和利润压制，铅或继续宽幅震荡走势；下半年矿端紧张缓解，原生铅供应释 放压力加大，铅震荡重心或有所下移。 摘要： | 第一部分 矿端增速放缓 | 锌震荡中枢有望上移 | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、锌市场行情回顾 | | 5 | | 二、锌影响因素分析 | | 6 | | 2.1.全球锌矿供应端增速或放缓 | | 6 | | 2.2 ...