1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].

研 究 院 货 金 融 多重利好，铜价再创历史新高 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 融 研 究 院 议息会议将至，市场继续提高美联储降息预期。美国巨量买盘导致智利提高美国铜现货升水，中国冶炼行业酝酿联 合减产，同时芝商所火灾也扩大了市场波动，周五伦铜大涨创历史新高。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但 房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货 铜上涨。 弘 业 期 货 金 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报89280，现货报89260，沪铜高位震荡，现货较期货贴水-20点。今日现货基差升水上升 至110点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周大幅升水45美元，外盘现货需求明显好转。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高， 伦铜库存上升，沪铜库存小幅下降，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价下降至30美元的新低，上涨后国 内现货需求不足。铜价伦沪比下降至7.96，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1109点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 今日伦铜高位小幅上涨再创历史 ...

研 究 院 货 金 铝价再度转强，有望挑战前高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 周五美国感恩节假期，市场继续加强美联储降息预期。周五芝商所故障导致交易中断，本身假期流动性不足， 导致市场波动被放大。今日中国标普全球11月制造业PMI表现不佳，但房地产相关数据有所好转。日内美元下跌人民 币震荡，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报21865，现货报21720，现货较期货贴水-145点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水扩大至-60 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存小幅下降，氧化铝库存上升。上期所铝库存小幅下降，现货需求一 般。LME库存稳定，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-26美元，海外现货需求不佳。人民币汇率本周大涨，铝价沪伦比本周下 降至7.58，内外盘走势大体相当。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大涨创近期新高，伦铝小幅上涨，在2878美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于21865，技 术形态偏强。沪铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪乐观。本周国内电解铝 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251201" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro - expectations and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December. The fundamentals of steel products show mixed trends, with some products facing challenges in supply, demand, and inventory [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Product Analysis Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in China was 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 319.01 million tons (+3 million tons). Rebar long - process output decreased by 4.43 million tons, and short - process output increased by 2.55 million tons. Hot - rolled coil output increased but remained at a high level [5][35] Demand - Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 320.22 million tons (-4.2 million tons). The construction steel weekly average trading volume was 10.45 million tons, remaining at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil weekly average trading volume was 3.36 million tons [5][44][49] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), with social inventory at 384.75 million tons (-15.27 million tons) and steel mill inventory at 146.73 million tons (-6.59 million tons). Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21 million tons), social inventory was 322.88 million tons (-1.21 million tons), and steel mill inventory remained unchanged [7] Basis - The basis of the rebar main contract was 140 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), showing a weakening trend [13] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a 1.6 million - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 1.17% [7] Raw Material Analysis - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, main coking coal in Lvliang, and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port were 1450 yuan/ton, 1505 yuan/ton, and 794 yuan/ton respectively this week, with week - on - week changes of - 30 yuan/ton, - 140 yuan/ton, and +6 yuan/ton [16][17] Market and Related Data Steel Export - In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [64] Automobile Production and Sales - In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [68] Real Estate Data - From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales amount decreased by 9.6% year - on - year, and the available funds decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [71][72]

郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 弘业期货农产品研究团队 2025/11/28 王晓蓓 从业资格号:F0272777 投资咨询证号：Z0010085 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 核心观点 市场对增产仍有预期，较高成本皮棉等待套保机会，较低成本皮棉可顺价出售，郑棉套保压力不集中， 不过仍有套保压力；下游需求一般，产成品累库不过整体库存压力不大。现货皮棉基差坚挺、年底下游补 库预期支撑；上方有增产及套保压力，市场暂缺新驱动，预期郑棉短期内维持震荡；长期来看或有上涨机 会。 关注：宏观、需求、政策 美棉销售进度偏慢，中国签约量少 美农周度出口报告显示，截止10月9日当周，2025/26年度美棉总签售量为106.55万吨，占年度预测总出 口量的41%，同比偏慢9个百分点，较过去三年同期均值偏慢15个百分点；累计出口装运量为31.85万吨，占 年度总签约量的30%，较去年同期偏快6个百分点，是近四年同期最快。其中，中国对本年度美棉的签约量仅 有2.8万吨。 国内新棉销售同比偏快 截至11月25日，全国新棉检验量为386.9万吨，同比增加15.88%。 郑棉：多空交织下还能再涨吗 据国家棉花市场监测调查数据显示，截至2025年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX market is expected to see its processing fees and absolute prices continue to run strongly, with attention on cost - side support and potential impacts from India's BIS certification and long - term contract prices [4]. - The pure benzene market is expected to have a relatively loose supply, and it will be in a low - level oscillation, with focus on exports and potential changes in South Korean disproportionation plants [5]. - The styrene market is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, following cost - side fluctuations, and future trends depend on consumption policies and macro - news [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are in a low - level oscillation, with weak support. Naphtha price is $557, and PX CFR price is $829. Sinopec's December PX listed price is 6,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last month [4]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output is 752,600 tons, a 0.6% increase from last week. The domestic weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.74%, up 0.53%. Some plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.29%, down 1.89% from last week and 6.74% year - on - year [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: PX fundamentals are strong due to continuous de - stocking, but the "peak season" failed to meet expectations. It is expected to run strongly if there are no unexpected cost - side disturbances [4]. Pure Benzene Market - **Concerns**: Geopolitical situation and US - South Korea arbitrage window [5]. - **Futures and Spot**: The pure benzene futures contract has rebounded slightly, and the basis difference between futures and spot has widened. The market is under cost - side pressure [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week's output is 446,700 tons, a 1.67% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.67%, down 1.31%. Supply exceeds demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 164,000 tons, with significant inventory accumulation [5]. - **Profit**: Most downstream products are in a loss, but some are expected to improve. Disproportionation plants' losses are increasing [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: New capacities have led to increased domestic output, and the overall supply is expected to be loose, with the market in a low - level oscillation [5]. Styrene Market - **Futures and Spot Performance**: The styrene futures contract has rebounded, but cost - side weakness suppresses prices. Spot prices have declined [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: As of November 26, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants is - 159 yuan/ton, with a reduced loss [6]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: This week's styrene output is 334,700 tons, a 2.39% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 67.29%, down 1.66% [6]. - **Downstream**: ABS, PS, EPS, and UPR have increased output, but the overall industry profitability is not good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, 2025, the port inventory in Jiangsu has increased, and there is an expectation of further inventory accumulation [6]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Styrene is in a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation after the holiday has limited impact on high port inventories [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the NYMEX platinum price showed a trend of "rapid spike - oscillatory correction - another spike - oscillatory adjustment". Despite a recent adjustment, platinum futures remain strong due to structural supply - demand shortages, strengthened hydrogen industry expectations, and the boost of the US dollar's financial attributes [3]. - The global platinum market is expected to remain in a shortage pattern in 2025. Supply is restricted by problems in South African mines and geopolitical uncertainties in Russia, while demand shows some resilience with a slowdown in overall growth but a promising outlook in the hydrogen energy sector. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips [8][12]. - Considering the supply - demand fundamentals and the potential for loose liquidity, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [13]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - side Growth Constrained - Global primary platinum production is highly concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 71% of the total. South African mines face long - term structural problems such as power shortages and infrastructure aging, and in 2025, the first - quarter production decreased by 4% year - on - year due to natural disasters. Russian supply is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. Mineral supply, which accounts for 75% of total platinum supply, is insufficient, leading to an overall decline in platinum supply [4]. - Platinum recycling sources mainly include waste automotive catalytic converters and jewelry. In 2025, China's policies are expected to accelerate automotive recycling, and jewelry consumption demand has rebounded. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expects recycling supply to increase by 7% year - on - year, but it is still insufficient to make up for the mineral supply gap. In 2025, total platinum supply is expected to decline by 2% to 222 tons [5]. Demand Growth Slowdown - In 2025, global total platinum demand is expected to decline by 6% year - on - year to 243 tons. Although demand in the jewelry and investment fields has increased, global automobile production is expected to be adjusted downward due to tariff impacts, and new capacity in the glass industry has slowed, dragging down industrial demand. However, the hydrogen energy sector shows explosive growth potential [6]. - In China, the automotive sector accounts for about 60% of platinum demand. In 2025, the overdraft effect of demand is emerging, and inventory pressure may affect platinum demand in the automotive sector. Jewelry demand in China is expected to increase by 44%, and investment demand for platinum bars and coins has increased by 47% year - on - year, reaching a four - year high [6][7]. Platinum Supply - Demand Remains in Shortage - In 2025, the global platinum market is expected to continue the shortage pattern, with a shortage of 22 tons. Total supply is expected to decline by 2% to 222 tons, the lowest in five years, and mineral supply will decrease by 5% to 171 tons, also a five - year low. Global above - ground platinum inventory and exchange inventory are at historical lows, increasing price elasticity [8]. Post - listing Trading Strategy - The correlation between the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price and the NYMEX platinum futures price is as high as 0.95, indicating strong price linkage at home and abroad. The correlation between platinum and COMEX gold futures prices is relatively low, with a correlation coefficient of about 0.6 in the past five years, mainly because platinum's price is more influenced by automotive and industrial demand [12]. - Looking ahead, South Africa may face power supply and extreme weather risks in the fourth quarter. Platinum demand is resilient, with jewelry and investment demand expanding and the hydrogen energy industry being an important growth point. Given the continuous supply - demand gap and low inventory, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips [12]. - Currently, precious metal prices are in a phased adjustment. US potential trade restrictions on platinum keep the spot market supply tight, and with the possibility of interest rate cuts, platinum prices are expected to remain firm [13].

油脂周度行情观察 陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 供应 需求 棕榈油：据Mysteel数据，截至11月21日，本周全国重点油厂24度棕榈油成交总量8000吨，环比增加4597吨。国内仍刚需为主。 豆油：截至11月21日，国内豆油成交量10.59万吨，环比减少2.73万吨。成交较平稳。 菜油：截至11月21日，沿海油厂菜油提货量为0.83万吨，环比增加0.31万吨。 库存 棕榈油：截至11月21日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存66.71万吨，环比上周增加1.39万吨，涨幅2.13%。 1.产地产量增加，马棕出口疲弱。SPPOMA预估11月1-15日马棕单产环比上月同期上涨1.82%，出油率环比上月同期上涨0.43%， 产量环比上月同期上涨4.09%。出口方面，船运机构数据显示马棕出口环比下降14.1%-20.5%。印尼方面，印尼棕榈油协会 （GAPKI）表示，2026年印尼毛棕榈油产量将同比增长3%-4%，今年增速介于3%-7%之间。估计2025年棕榈油产量将达到4961 万吨至5154万吨，高于2024年的4816万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, and the prices of multiple specifications of logs in major ports have generally been lowered by 10 - 30 yuan/cubic meter. The futures price has also declined, and the market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term. The supply side has high inventory and high arrival volume, which puts pressure on prices, but the arrival volume has decreased recently, and the supply - side pressure has been improved. The demand side is weak, and the downstream actual demand is less than expected, and the real estate industry has not shown substantial benefits [2][3][5] Summary by Directory 1. Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - On the spot side, the prices of medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port have declined compared with the previous period. The freight rate of imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand to China) in late November 2025 was flat compared with the beginning of November. As of November 24, the FOB price range of New Zealand 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine was 112 - 119 US dollars/JAS cubic meter. On the futures side, as of November 25, the log main contract 2601 closed at 764.5 yuan/cubic meter and continued to decline [2] 2. Log Industry Data - Supply - From November 15 - 21, 2025, the total departure and shipment of logs from New Zealand ports were 14 ships with 510,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 7 ships and 220,000 cubic meters. Among them, 9 ships with 320,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a week - on - week increase of 3 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. The arrival volume has decreased since this week, and the seasonal decline in New Zealand's shipments has occurred in the long term. From November 24 - 30, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China is 6 ships, a week - on - week decrease of 7 ships (54%); the total arrival volume is about 217,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 201,000 cubic meters (48%). In October 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04% [2] 3. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 20,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 80,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, the same as last week. The high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot prices. Although the inventory is high, the decrease in arrival volume in mid - November has created initial conditions for inventory reduction. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and high inventory suppresses prices [3] 4. Log Industry Data - Demand - From November 17 - 23, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 64,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 1.83% compared with last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 35,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.18% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 23,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.28% compared with last week. The continuous high arrival pressure and the suppression of downstream demand by seasonal factors have increased the sales pressure of traders, and they have generally reduced prices for promotion [3] 5. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration, and the proportion from New Zealand has further increased. The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost. The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, and the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended. The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. The General Administration of Customs has decided to abolish the notice on suspending the import of US logs. The freight cost in Russia has increased by up to 50%, and the wood price has increased by 11% - 14% [4] 6. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - Since its listing for one year, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has steadily increased. The total trading volume of the two is about 7.87 million lots, with a trading amount of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots. The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have completed a total of 1,412 lots of delivery, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total cargo value of about 104 million yuan [5] 7. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%. As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side is still weak [5] 8. Strategy and Suggestions - The 2509 contract declined continuously in the off - season of the second quarter and rose significantly from July to August. The 2511 contract rose first and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The 2601 contract first oscillated strongly and then declined rapidly and oscillated at a low level. The downstream actual demand is less than expected, and there is no substantial benefit from tariffs and real estate. The near - month contract maintains a low level after entering the delivery month, and the far - month contract may enter the delivery with a discount structure again. The high arrival pressure of logs has been realized, and the supply - side pressure of the current fundamentals has been improved [6]

沪铅弱势难改 基本面变化 加工费：2025年10月铅精矿进口量为98342吨实物量，环比下降34.69%，进口量跌至中等均值水平。国内冬季铅精矿市场需求高 涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张加剧，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步下滑。11月国内月度加工费250-350元/吨，月度环比 下降50元；进口月度加工费位-150--100美元/干吨，月度环比下降10美元。现货加工费方面，国内铅矿周度加工费为250-350元 /吨，周度环比持平；进口周度加工费为-150--120美元/干吨，周度环比持平。 供应：SMM显示10月全国电解铅产量小幅下滑，环比减少0.56%，环比上升2.66%；10月再生铅产量明显上升，环比增加9.24%， 同比去年增加11.86%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂的平均开工率为67.7%，环比增加0.13%。上周河南地区原生铅冶炼厂产量边际 波动带来小幅增量；此前检修计划原定于11月底的华东地区某冶炼厂本周将进入常规检修，但对电解铅产线影响相对有限，或 将小幅减产。原料端压力凸显，后期原生铅开工率变化不大。SMM再生铅四省周度开工率为50.52%，环比减少2.28%。安徽地区 再生铅周度开工率变化 ...