1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply is relatively abundant, with the demand side seeing a rebound in molten iron production, which provides support for rigid - demand procurement. Coupled with the expectation of winter storage replenishment, the iron ore market will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The trading strategy is range - bound [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - Spot prices are fluctuating and consolidating [7] - The price difference between high - and medium - grade ores is widening, while the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores is temporarily stable. The price difference between PB powder and Mac fine powder is decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread is oscillating at a low level, and the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts is slightly rising [12][16][20] - As of January 5, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder is 895, up 11 from the end of last month, with a notional futures price of 841, also up 11; the spot price of PB powder is 806, up 4, with a notional futures price of 858, up 5; the spot price of Super Special powder is 684, up 4, with a notional futures price of 887, up 5. The high - medium grade price difference is 89, and the medium - low grade price difference is 122. The optimal deliverable product is 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore, with a spot price of 770 and a notional futures price of 838 [29] - The rebar - to - ore ratio continues to decline, and the ore - to - coking coal ratio is oscillating at a high level [30] Supply - From December 29 to January 4, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons; Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, a decrease of 151,500 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 191,100 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2.7564 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 155,000 tons [5] - As of December 31, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 mines across the country was 43,330 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The mine concentrate inventory was 84,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 950 tons [5] - Global shipments are seasonally declining, with non - mainstream ore shipments, Australian ore shipped to China, Brazilian ore shipments, FMG and BHP shipments to China, RT shipments to China, and VALE shipments all showing declines. The freight rate index continues to decline. The arrival volume has slightly increased and remains at a high level, and the decline in domestic iron ore concentrate production has slowed down [36][40][44][48][52][56][59] Demand - In the week of December 31, the daily average molten iron production was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons. The end of the steel mill production quota restrictions led to the resumption of production of some steel mill blast furnaces, and the rebound in molten iron production supports the ore price. The steel mill profit rate has slightly increased, and the imported ore price is oscillating in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits have slightly increased, and blast furnaces in steel mills are gradually resuming production, with molten iron production slightly rebounding [65][71] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory continued to increase, the number of ships at the port increased by 2 to 105, the port congestion slightly increased, the arrival volume remained at a high level, the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level, while the steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still provides support [5] - The port throughput has slightly increased, the port inventory has continued to increase, the Australian ore inventory has continued to increase, the Brazilian ore inventory has slightly decreased, the coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory has slightly decreased. Steel mill consumption has slightly increased, and the imported ore inventory is at a low level [78][82][89][97]

研 究 院 货 金 融 避险情绪推动，铜价再度大涨 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场全线 大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。叠加节后补库需求，日内有色金属持续 上行。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报101350，现货报100720，沪铜日内持续拉升，现货较期货贴水-1810点。今日现货基差 升水35点，现货成交略有好转。LME现货升水扩大至39美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦 铜库存小幅下降，沪铜库存明显上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率大涨，洋山铜溢价大幅下降至41.5美元，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至7.88，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1288点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘。 | | | | 铜市场指标监测 | | 院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 炒作热情升温，沪铝再创新高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 周末美国突袭委内瑞拉，带走总统马杜罗，多个国家强烈抗议。由于国际形势紧张，避险情绪上升，金属市场 全线大涨。铂，钯暴涨，黄金白银大涨，并且带动铜、铝等传统有色金属普遍大涨。俄乌谈判没有进展，假期期间伦 铝大涨。今日沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报23645，现货报23310，现货较期货贴水-335点。本周沪铝大涨，现货贴水-230元， 今日现货成交有所好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，氧化铝库存小幅上升。上期所铝库存小幅上升，淡季高位现 货需求较差。LME库存上升，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-25美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率上涨，铝价沪伦 比大幅上升至7.67，内盘走势强于外盘。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大跌，俄罗斯等国能源出口受限，伦铝大涨，在3061美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨创新 高，收于23645，技术形态强势。沪铝成交持仓均上升，增仓上行，市场情绪乐观。本 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and strong cost support at the bottom. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the northern operating rate [2]. - The polysilicon market also shows weak supply and demand, with inventory pressure still existing. However, due to strong price support in the market and downstream market games, it is expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [3]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 421 oxygen - passed was 9,050 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week. The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated at a low level, closing at 8,860 yuan/ton on December 31 [2][7]. - **Supply**: In early January, some production capacities in Xinjiang were cut, and the output decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in Yunnan remained stable, and that in Sichuan slightly decreased. Overall, the output of industrial silicon continued to decline month - on - month [2][16]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of polysilicon was basically stable, and the output in December increased slightly month - on - month. In January, some enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline. The output change of organic silicon was limited, and there was still a possibility of decline under the background of emission reduction and price support. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was basically stable. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22% and a year - on - year increase of 4% [2]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [2]. - **Inventory**: As of December 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 557,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week [2]. - **Price Difference**: As of January 4, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [11]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated and corrected at a high level, closing at 57,920 yuan/ton on December 31 [3][14]. - **Supply**: The expected output of polysilicon in December was 114,500 tons. In January, a small number of enterprises planned to reduce the load or production, and the scheduled production was expected to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Demand**: Recently, there was an obvious game in the polysilicon market, with more inquiries from downstream. Under the influence of the establishment of the polysilicon production capacity integration platform and the expected sales restriction in January, leading enterprises strongly supported the price. Downstream silicon wafer enterprises increased the production reduction intensity, and maintained rigid demand procurement in the short term. Enterprises with low inventory increased the procurement intensity. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,055.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27%; the export volume was 3,230.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 109% [3]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of January 2, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 287,800 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from last week [3][22]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of January 4, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.375, 1.375, 1.475, and 1.65 yuan/piece respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.05, 0.05, 0.075, and 0.05 yuan/piece respectively. The price of the silicon wafer market strengthened, and the transaction increased significantly compared with the previous period [26]. - **Battery Chip**: As of January 4, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.38 yuan/watt respectively, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/watt. The battery chips were strongly pulled up by cost drivers [30]. - **Component**: As of January 4, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.685, 0.705, 0.685, and 0.705 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The cost of components increased, and enterprises successively raised their quotes, but the overall transaction was weak in the off - season at the end of the year, showing a situation of high prices but few transactions [33]. Organic Silicon - **Price and Operation**: As of January 4, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The offers of mainstream monomer factories of organic silicon remained stable. The raw material inventories of some downstream silicone rubber and silicone oil enterprises were gradually consumed, and the inquiry and procurement increased. The operating rate change was not large in January, and it was expected to weaken [35][37]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Operation**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 22,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises was stable, and they purchased at low prices as needed [41].

钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20250105 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：钢材产量增加，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给：钢厂复产，供应增加。全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为188.22万吨（+3.83），热轧当周产量为304.51万吨（+10.97）。 （2） 需求：螺纹需求季节性偏弱，热卷需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为200.44万吨（-2.24），热轧表观需求310.77万吨(+3.73）。 螺纹钢总库存422.03万吨(-12.22），社会库存282.66万吨(-11.53)，钢厂库存139.37万吨(-0.69); 热轧总库存370.96万吨(-6.26),社会库存288.64万吨(-8.06)，钢厂库存82.32万吨(+1.8)。 （4）基差：截至12月31日，螺纹主力合约基差178元/吨（+6），热轧主力合约基差0元/吨（+13）。 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率上升至38.1%，钢厂利润有所修复; 铁水产量227.43万吨，环比增加0.85万吨。 高炉开工率78.94%，环比上升0.62%，高炉产能利用率85.26%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aromatics market shows a differentiated trend, with the supply - demand structure playing a dominant role in the PX, pure benzene, and styrene markets [1]. - PX has shown a relatively strong pattern since the fourth quarter, but lacks further upward support. It may maintain a tight pattern until the maintenance season from March to May 2026. - Pure benzene is in a state of oversupply, with high inventory and import pressure. It will likely remain in a low - level volatile and stable state in the short term. - Styrene has improved in terms of supply - demand structure since November. In the short term, it trades on the strength of aromatics prices and export news, and there may be an opportunity for the supply - demand pattern to improve in the second quarter. Summary by Related Catalogs PX Market - **Cost**: PX's ex - factory price has continuously increased, and the basis has widened. The main influencing factors of the cost side are geopolitical news and OPEC+ production policies. The international oil price remains weak, and the short - term cost support is average [3]. - **Supply**: Some PX plants have shut down or are under maintenance. This week, the PX output was 74.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 88.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%. The production enthusiasm of PX plants remains high [3]. - **Demand**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of downstream PTA reached 74.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.35%. The supply - demand of PTA is tight, and the balance sheet continues to reduce inventory [3]. - **Summary and Outlook**: PX has certain support from improved downstream demand since the fourth quarter. Although the current efficiency is good and the long - term outlook is positive, it lacks further upward support. It is expected to maintain a tight pattern until the maintenance season in 2026 [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. The far - month price is under pressure, and the futures price has continuously declined. The increase since late December is less than that of other aromatics [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: In November, the national pure benzene output was 1.908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The import volume in November was 459,600 tons, remaining at a high level. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. The inventory has increased significantly [5]. - **Profit**: Terminal demand is insufficient. Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol remain in a loss state, while the profit of pure benzene itself has recovered. The profits of caprolactam and aniline are acceptable [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Affected by the new production capacity, the domestic output has increased significantly, resulting in oversupply. The market is expected to remain in a low - level volatile and stable state in the short term, and the oversupply situation is expected to continue until the maintenance season [5]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: The main styrene contract has rebounded recently, mainly affected by the increase in raw material and ex - factory prices. After the New Year's Day holiday, it回调 following the decline in the cost side. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,915 yuan/ton, higher than before [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From December 18 to 24, 2025, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 64.51%. On January 4, the daily profit was 109 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 23.41%. The processing margin has slightly widened recently [6]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: From December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026, the total output of styrene plants in China was 352,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [6]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of the main downstream products of styrene (EPS, PS, ABS) was 269,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.79%. The overall demand of the three major downstream plants has increased [6]. - **Inventory**: As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.68%. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.20%. The port is expected to continue to reduce inventory [6]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Styrene has shown a downward trend overall. Since November, the supply - demand structure has improved. In the short term, it trades on the strength of aromatics prices and export news. There may be an opportunity for the supply - demand pattern to improve in the second quarter [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From December 22 - 26, the oils and fats sector fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The palm oil main 2605 contract rose 1.8%, the soybean oil main contract fell 0.8%, and the palm oil main contract rose 2%. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia but weak domestic demand and inventory build - up. Soybean oil will also fluctuate in the short - term with limited drivers. Rapeseed oil prices are supported by tight supply and strong market hoarding sentiment, and the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds should be monitored [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Malaysian palm oil fundamentals improved with a decline in production and an increase in exports in early December, but there is still inventory build - up pressure. SPPOMA showed a 7.15% month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production from December 1 - 20. AmSpec, SGS, and ITS had different data on palm oil exports during the same period. Malaysia lowered its January crude palm oil reference price and export tariff. Indonesia may impose up to $8.5 billion in fines on palm oil enterprises, which may affect production [4]. - The increase in B50 biodiesel volume is small. Indonesia has started B50 road tests, and the mandatory use policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026. The 2026 biodiesel quota is similar to 2025, and the market doubts Indonesia's ability to achieve the B50 target [5]. - There is an expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans. AgRural forecast Brazil's 2025/26 soybean output to reach 180.4 million tons, and as of December 20, the sowing rate was 97.6% [5]. 2. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: There were no new purchases or cancellations of vessels from December 20 - 26, and domestic demand is weak with low procurement volume [11]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 206.44 tons, the operating rate was 56.79% (down 1.82% month - on - month), and the soybean oil output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month). Domestic soybean supply is relatively abundant [11]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. Australian rapeseeds have not been crushed, and supply is tight [11]. Demand - Palm oil: As of December 26, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 1300 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons month - on - month, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs [8]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the weekly domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 12.15 tons, an increase of 4.92 tons month - on - month [8]. - Rapeseed oil: As of December 26, the pick - up volume of coastal oil mills was 0.1 tons, a decrease of 0.05 tons month - on - month, and it remained at a low level year - on - year [8]. Inventory - Palm oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 73.41 tons, an increase of 3.41 tons month - on - month, a 4.87% increase [9]. - Soybean oil: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 108.9 tons, a decrease of 3.45 tons month - on - month, a 3.07% decrease, but inventory pressure still exists [9]. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 28.5 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons month - on - month, a 5.94% decrease, and inventory continued to decline [9]. Cost and Profit - As of December 26, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1065/ton, and the import cost was 8928 yuan/ton, an increase of 337 yuan/ton month - on - month [10]. 3. Conclusion - Palm oil: It rebounded due to improved supply - demand in Malaysia, but domestic inventory continued to build up and demand was weak, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Soybean oil: There is uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy, domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained high, and inventory pressure still exists, so it will fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed supply is sufficient, but domestic rapeseed inventory is 0 tons, oil mills are shut down, supply is tight, and market hoarding sentiment is strong, so it is necessary to monitor the pressing situation of Australian rapeseeds [13]. 4. Spot Prices - As of December 26, the spot price of Zhangjiagang Grade 4 soybean oil was 8360 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 260 yuan/ton month - on - month. The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Nantong was 9690 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. 5. Malaysian Palm Oil Data - Production in November 2025 was 193.55 tons, a 5.30% month - on - month decrease, and the decrease in the Malay Peninsula was the most obvious [17]. - Inventory in November was 283.54 tons, a 13.04% month - on - month increase, and it was at a high level year - on - year [18]. - Exports in November were 121.2 tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease, mainly due to the expected decrease in Indonesia's December export tariff [19]. - Domestic consumption in Malaysia in November was 41.8 tons, a 71.76% month - on - month increase [20]. 6. Indian Palm Oil Data - In November, India imported 63.23 tons of palm oil, an increase of 3 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [23]. 7. Domestic Palm Oil Data - As of December 26, the commercial inventory was 73.41 tons, a 4.87% increase. In November, the import volume was 33 tons, an increase of 11 tons month - on - month [25]. - In November, the consumption was 33.92 tons, an increase of 11.1 tons month - on - month, and it was at a low level year - on - year [27]. - As of December 26, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton month - on - month [31]. 8. Domestic Soybean Oil Data - As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, the output was 39.22 tons (down 1.26 tons month - on - month), and it was still at a high level year - on - year. The inventory continued to decline but was still at a high level, and supply pressure still exists [33][34]. 9. Domestic Rapeseed Oil Data - As of December 26, the rapeseed inventory dropped to 0 tons, the operating rate of pressing plants was 0%, the rapeseed pressing volume was 0 tons, and the output of coastal oil mills was 0 tons. The inventory was 28.5 tons (down 1.8 tons month - on - month), and inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the pressing of Australian rapeseeds [36].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean sales are regionally differentiated, with accelerated sales in the Northeast and supplemented by state - reserve soybean auctions, and the price is firm. The import of soybeans in China has slowed down, the port inventory has declined, and there is import and auction activity. The oil mill's operating rate has slightly decreased, but the soybean meal inventory remains high, while the demand is strong. The soybean No.1 futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, and soybean meal futures will fluctuate and adjust [6] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The main contract of soybean No.1 2605 rebounded significantly. The spot price continued to rise, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,120 yuan/ton to around 4,200 yuan/ton. The basis of soybean No.1 strengthened in oscillation, and the futures price was slightly at a discount. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 rebounded but then fell back, continuing to oscillate. The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 3,030 yuan/ton to around 3,060 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened in oscillation, and the futures discount widened [4] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales - The sales of domestic soybeans are regionally differentiated. As of December 26, the remaining soybean inventory in Heilongjiang accounted for 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 8%; in Anhui, it was 55%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; in Henan, it was 60%, unchanged; and in Shandong, it was 62%, a decrease of 2%. Recently, a large amount of state - reserve soybeans have been continuously auctioned. From December 23, about 600,000 tons have been put up for auction, and 480,000 tons have been sold, supplementing the market [4] 3.3 Soybean Import and Inventory - China's soybean procurement has slowed down. In November, the domestic import of soybeans was 8.11 million tons, a further month - on - month decline but still a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. It is reported that the purchase of US soybeans may also be delayed, and the port soybean inventory has been continuously decreasing. As of December 26, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 1.443 million tons, a significant month - on - month decline; the port soybean inventory was 8.251 million tons, with a continuous month - on - month decline [4] 3.4 US Soybean Market - The US soybean market continued to oscillate and adjust. The USDA's December supply - demand report made few adjustments, being neutral. The US is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases and the production increase pressure of the new - season soybeans in South America [4] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The cost of Brazilian soybeans has dropped significantly, and the crushing margin has increased, but the operating rate of oil mills has not increased. As of December 26, the operating rate of oil mills was 56.79%, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean crushing volume was 2.0644 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 6.5444 million tons, a significant decline. The soybean meal production was 1.631 million tons, a slight month - on - month decrease; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.1676 million tons, a month - on - month increase, remaining at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts for soybean meal were 3.816 million tons, a month - on - month decline. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills was 9.45 days, a continuous month - on - month increase and at a high level in recent years [5] 3.6 Feed Demand - In the livestock farming sector, the pig price rebounded, and the farming losses narrowed. As of December 26, the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, narrowing; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, also narrowing. The productive sow capacity has been continuously reduced. In October, the national inventory of productive sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 450,000 from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both decreased, reflecting weak restocking sentiment, while the inventory of commercial pigs still increased. It is difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price is low, and the poultry farming has been in continuous losses, with an increase in culling. The inventory decreased slightly again in November and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed is still strong, but there are concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have experienced significant fluctuations, and risks have increased substantially [3][5] - The market sentiment has shifted, with有色金属 experiencing a sharp decline in the afternoon [4] - The high - level uncertainty of copper prices has risen significantly, and the risks in the later period are relatively high [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - During the Christmas holiday in the external market this week, trading was light, and market volatility increased. Precious metals speculation in the morning session drove the collective strength of non - ferrous metals, but the market declined in the afternoon. Shanghai copper and LME copper rose, and domestic spot copper also increased [4] - LME copper reached a new historical high, trading around $12,570. Shanghai copper reached a new high in the morning and then declined in the afternoon, closing slightly higher at 98,860. Trading volume increased while positions decreased, indicating a large divergence in market sentiment [5] Price and Basis - The closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,860, and the spot price was 101,290. The spot was at a premium of 2,430 points over futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 330 points, and spot trading was extremely poor. The LME spot premium widened to $20, and the external market spot demand was good [4] - The RMB exchange rate rose this week, and the Yangshan copper premium increased to $52.5, indicating an improvement in domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices remained at 7.87, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 1,021 points, with the external market ratio much higher than the domestic market [4] Inventory - This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise significantly to a new high, the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased. The spot demand was average [4] Production - In November, domestic copper production increased by 11.9% year - on - year [5] Demand and Premium - Domestic and LME copper demand was not good, but the buying power of US copper was extremely strong, which was the main factor driving up copper prices. Recently, the US copper inventory has continued to rise. The US accelerated inventory accumulation, causing tension in the spot market, and the premium of US copper over LME copper decreased to around $155 [5]

研 究 院 货 金 融 沪铝高位震荡，氧化铝不宜抄底 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 期 货 金 融 研 究 院 本周外盘圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。早盘贵金属炒作延续，带动有色金属集体走强。但市场 情绪有所转变，今日市场巨幅震荡，有色金属午后全线跳水。沪铝上涨，伦铝上涨，国内现货铝上涨。 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报22570，现货报22490，现货较期货贴水-80点。本周沪铝上涨，现货贴水扩大至-240 元，今日现货成交不佳。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，氧化铝库存下降。上期所铝库存小幅上升，淡季高位现货需 求极差。LME库存上升，LME现货贴水小幅收窄至-35美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率上涨，铝价沪伦比小 幅上升至7.55，内外盘走势大体一致。 弘 业 技术上看，今日美原油大涨，伦铝上涨，在2979美元附近运行。沪铝今日大涨，收于22570，技术形态偏强。沪 铝成交持仓均上升，市场情绪偏向乐观。本周国内电解铝社会库存上升，现货成交较差。近期俄乌局势仍不明朗。 中国增量政策预期强烈，美联储降息前 ...