陈春雷：从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯 从业资格证号：F03131526 行情回顾 油脂周度行情观察 10月10日，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布9月供需报告。其中，当月产量为184.12万吨（-0.73%），出口量为142.76万吨 （+7.69%），国内消费为33.35万吨（-33.21%），库存为236.10万吨（+7.20%）。产量和库存均高于市场预期，出口有所改 善。报告影响偏空，棕榈油价格回落。 印尼B50政策消息发酵。印尼正加快推进到2026年全面实施B50生物柴油计划，能源部透露，B50燃料的实验室测试已于8月完 成，接下来将进入道路测试阶段。数据显示，若全面实施B50，每年将需要约2010万千升棕榈油基生物燃料。市场对于未来 棕榈油供应收紧有所担忧。 美豆持续收获，受中美贸易摩擦影响，中国仍未采购美豆而是转向南美大豆，美豆供应压力增加。10月1日美国政府停摆,受 此影响USDA月度供需报告、出口销售数据等关键信息暂停发布，市场缺乏指引，同时政府对农民的补贴政策推迟。 根据CONAB数据，截至10月11日当周，巴西2025/2026年度大豆种植率为11 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The aluminum market is significantly affected by macro - factors. With the continuous escalation of Sino - US trade frictions and the release of negotiation signals, along with the influence of China's import and export data, the market sentiment fluctuates. The short - term trend of Shanghai Aluminum returns to oscillation, and the medium - term trend depends on the change of spot demand [1][2]. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the market tumbled on Friday night, but rebounded on Sunday morning after the US signaled negotiation. China's September import and export data are optimistic, and market sentiment is repaired. Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20885 today, with the spot price at 20800 and a spot - to - futures discount of - 85 points. Shanghai Aluminum rose first and then fell this week, with the spot discount widening to - 50 yuan and general spot trading [1]. - Crude oil and LME Aluminum rebounded today. Shanghai Aluminum opened low and closed slightly down, with increased trading volume and decreased positions, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, the SHFE inventory rose slightly, and the spot demand was general. The LME inventory was stable, the LME spot premium rose to 12 US dollars, and overseas demand improved. The end of the off - season led to a slight improvement in spot demand [1]. Price and Ratio - The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped significantly to 7.53, showing that the domestic market performed weaker than the overseas market [1]. - The alumina price has been falling as the anti - involution hype subsided [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | Aluminum - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Sep 29 | 7.1293 | - 30 | - 4 | 7.84 | | Sep 30 | 7.1288 | - 30 | - 2 | 7.75 | | Oct 9 | 7.1378 | - 60 | 2 | 7.73 | | Oct 10 | 7.1483 | - 60 | 8 | 7.59 | | Oct 13 | 7.1358 | - 50 | 12 | 7.53 | [3]

（3）美豆上下震荡。美政府停摆，导致10月美农报告未发布。当前美豆集中收割，美豆农大豆无处可去，美将进 行援助，中美贸易关系仍紧张。 国产大豆收获，中美谈判悬疑？ 2025年10月14日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约止跌反弹。现货价格承压回落，富锦大豆市场价由4140元/吨落至4000元/吨附近。大豆基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水收窄，期现回归。 豆粕01合约低位震荡。豆粕现货价格稳中有升，张家港43粕由2870元/吨升至2900元/吨附近。基差震荡走强，盘面 升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆集中收割，余粮增加；据钢联：截至10月10日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比升至60%；安徽大豆余粮占比升 至5%；河南大豆余粮占比升至2%；山东大豆余粮占比升至5%。黑龙江大豆集中收获，华北等地遇连阴雨，阻碍收获。 （2）油厂大豆供应充足。据海关总署：8月国内进口大豆1228万吨，环比增加5.3%，同比增加1.12%；1-8月累计进 口7331.76万吨，同比增加4%。中美谈判悬疑，此前特朗普威胁再加100%关税，随后松口有谈判预期。国内进口结构转 向南美，集中到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the PVC market continued the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with prices under downward pressure. The market lacked obvious support due to high - level supply, accumulated inventory, and the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping policies, resulting in a weak and volatile price trend [2][34]. - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals have not improved significantly, and inventory pressure persists. Prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered after the holiday, it remains weak overall [2][34]. - In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in export policies, especially the final implementation time and intensity of India's anti - dumping duties. The actual impact of the six - department building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan on the PVC industry also needs to be monitored [2][34]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - PVC futures and spot prices oscillated weakly. As of the night session on October 10, the main PVC futures price was 4,723 yuan/ton, fluctuating slightly compared to the end of September. The trading volume remained at a moderate level of 255,000 lots. From October 9 to 10, the open interest of the PVC2601 contract increased significantly, indicating high hedging pressure [4]. - In the spot market, regional price differences remained stable but showed a downward trend. The prices in different regions were in different ranges, and they briefly increased at the beginning of the month due to futures fluctuations and then declined again at the end of the month due to weak demand. The ethylene - based price was relatively stable, but the trading atmosphere was light [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Capacity and operation: As of October 10, the overall PVC operating load rate was 76.11%, with the calcium carbide - based operating rate at 78.97% and the ethylene - based operating rate at 77.52%. New production capacity was put into operation in September, and the effective domestic calcium carbide - based PVC production capacity increased to 21.465 million tons. Although there were some maintenance activities, the long - term capacity increase offset the short - term reduction, and the supply pressure continued to expand [14]. - Maintenance: After the holiday, some devices were under maintenance, but the overall maintenance intensity was limited and could not alleviate the supply surplus situation [14]. Inventory - As of October 10, the in - factory PVC inventory was 384,000 tons, and the social inventory was 1.036 million tons, both increasing year - on - year. The social inventory had been accumulating for 13 consecutive weeks since early July, and the high inventory was one of the core factors suppressing the market. The inventory pressure was difficult to relieve in the short term [17]. Demand Side - Domestic demand was weak. The real estate market, the core consumption area of PVC, was still in a slump, with significant year - on - year declines in construction area, new construction area, investment, and completion area from January to August 2025. The downstream enterprise operating rates were at a low level, and the demand support was limited [20]. - Export support weakened. Although the export volume in August increased year - on - year, the expected implementation of India's anti - dumping duties and the anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers in September pressured export orders. The "rush - to - export" behavior in the early stage over - drafted demand, and the export rhythm slowed down significantly in September [21]. Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The production cost of PVC mainly consists of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based processes. The calcium carbide price accounts for over 80% of the calcium carbide - based PVC cost, and coal price fluctuations significantly affect the cost. The overall PVC industry is in a loss state, with a loss of about 750 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based PVC and about 650 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [26]. - Cost trend: In September, the average calcium carbide market price rose sharply, driving up the calcium carbide - based PVC production cost by 2.41% to 5,132 yuan/ton. The ethylene - based cost slightly increased to 5,617 yuan/ton. However, it is expected that the cost support will gradually weaken [27]. - Profit: As of the end of September, the calcium carbide - based PVC gross profit was about - 444 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based gross profit was - 467 yuan/ton. The cost increase and product price decline formed a "scissors gap", suppressing enterprises' production enthusiasm [28][29]. 3. Summary and Outlook - In the short term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged, and inventory pressure persists. Prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Although downstream demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak. The implementation of maintenance plans in October is expected to reduce the operating rate, but the supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse [34]. - In the long - term, pay attention to changes in export policies and the actual impact of the building materials industry growth - stabilizing work plan. - Futures strategy: Given the weak supply - demand pattern of PVC, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities, especially when inventory pressure appears and export expectations weaken. - Spot market: The trading volume remains low, and prices lack obvious support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to supply - side changes and inventory adjustment signals [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From September 22 to September 30, both foreign and domestic precious metals rose across the board, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired. Political uncertainty is the core variable driving up the safe - haven demand. The US government shutdown and inflation data leading to rate - cut expectations support precious metal prices, while the divergent Fed amplifies price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Variety Views - In the period from September 22 to September 30, COMEX gold futures rose 4.91% to $3887.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 9.05% to $46.84 per ounce. Domestically, Shanghai gold rose 5.38% to 874.40 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 9.86% to 10918.00 yuan per kilogram. The US 8 - month PCE price index was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE was 2.9% year - on - year. Policy guidance sensitive period is coming for the Fed. Political risk may push up the risk - hedging premium of gold [4]. 3.2. Market News - **US Government Shutdown Issue**: On September 20, Senate Democrats blocked a Republican temporary appropriation bill. On September 21, both parties' short - term spending bills failed in the Senate. With existing funds only supporting the federal government until the end of the month, the government is approaching a shutdown, and the political deadlock between the two parties remains unresolved as of September 27 [6]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Stance**: Multiple Fed officials have different views. Some believe the current interest rate is between "slightly restrictive and neutral" with limited room for further rate cuts; some support rate cuts; and there are discussions about replacing the current 2% inflation target with a target range. There are also differences in the number and magnitude of rate cuts within the Fed [8]. - **Economic Data**: The US 9 - month S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52, service PMI was 53.9, and composite PMI was 53.6, all below expectations. The second - quarter GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter growth was revised up to 3.8%. The 8 - month core PCE price index was 2.9% year - on - year, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%. The initial jobless claims last week dropped to 218,000 [10]. - **Other News**: China's 1 - 8 month industrial enterprise profits increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and the 8 - month profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was adjusted up to 3.2% by the OECD [13].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market trends of various sectors during the National Day holiday in 2025, including macro - colored, energy and chemical, agricultural products, and black sectors. Most sectors show a complex situation of supply - demand imbalance, with some facing supply pressure and others having weak demand. Market trends are affected by factors such as policies, international macro - situations, and seasonal characteristics, and most sectors are expected to show short - term oscillatory trends [2][8][21]. Summary by Sector Macro - Colored Sector - **Stock Index**: A - share market showed strong growth before the holiday, up 6.7%, hitting a high since 1987. Policies are expected to attract incremental funds [2]. - **Copper**: International macro - situation fluctuates greatly due to the US government debt issue and political changes in other countries. Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum prices rise, while there are no major domestic changes [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the supply pressure is still large. Although LME zinc rebounds during the holiday, SHFE zinc is under pressure at high levels [3]. - **Lead**: LME lead fluctuates widely during the holiday. Domestic lead supply pressure increases, and demand in the peak season is not good, with a weak oscillatory trend expected [4]. - **Tin**: LME tin rises during the holiday. Supply is tight due to slow mine resumption in Myanmar and disruptions in Indonesia. The tight supply pattern is expected to continue until mid - month [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Precious metals rise during the holiday, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and international macro - uncertainties. However, gold is in an overbought state [6]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **PTA**: Oil prices fall and then rebound during the holiday. PTA has low processing fees, weak cost support, and insufficient downstream demand, expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **MEG**: There are many changes in domestic and overseas devices. Supply pressure is large, and cost drive is poor, with prices expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are expected to oscillate weakly following raw materials, with limited processing fee improvement space [8][9]. - **Urea**: The market is weak during the holiday. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the market is expected to be under pressure [10]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market is stable during the holiday. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is expected to be under pressure in the short term [11]. - **PVC**: There is a gap between policy expectations and fundamentals. Supply pressure is not relieved, demand is weak, and it is difficult to find positive factors [12]. - **Glass**: The market shows a trend of rising first and then falling. Supply may tighten, but demand is insufficient after the holiday, and fundamental positives are not sustainable [12][13]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is under pressure. The price lacks upward momentum in the long term [14]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure, but there is some support from alumina's demand expectations [15]. - **Rubber**: Typhoon may reduce supply, but terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. - **PX**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on downstream demand and profit changes [16][17]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices fall before the holiday. Downstream demand is not as expected, and there is an over - supply expectation [18]. - **Styrene**: Prices fall before the holiday. The market is in a wide - balance state with a tendency to accumulate inventory, and the weak situation is difficult to change after the holiday [19]. Agricultural Products Sector - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: US cotton prices fall during the holiday. Domestic cotton purchase is stable, but demand is weak. Cotton prices are expected to have limited downward space after the holiday [21][22]. - **Sugar**: US raw sugar oscillates during the holiday. Production in some regions may increase, and Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but is under pressure [23]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rebound during the holiday. Domestic supply is sufficient, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybean harvest begins. Domestic production and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [25]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season early. Supply and demand are both affected, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Rapeseed Products**: Canadian rapeseed imports decrease, and domestic rapeseed oil production increases with inventory reduction, expected to oscillate [26]. - **Corn and Starch**: US corn oscillates slightly. Domestic supply may be affected by weather, and demand is strong. Corn prices may first fall and then rise [27]. - **Hogs**: Pig prices are low, and the breeding loss expands. The market is expected to oscillate weakly [28]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable during the holiday. High存栏 may lead to price pressure after the holiday [28]. - **Logs**: Log prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to seasonal factors, but downstream demand is weak [29]. Black Sector - **Steel**: Steel mills' profitability decreases, but production and demand show different trends. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The market shows a small increase. Supply is stable, and demand has support, focusing on supply and demand changes [31]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand change little, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is weak and stable during the holiday. Supply and demand are both stable, and the market is expected to oscillate after the holiday [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply exceeds expectations, demand may decrease, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [33]. - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are weak and stable. They are expected to oscillate within a range after the holiday [33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the tin market in the medium term, advising investors to adopt a long - position strategy [4]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The disruption in the Indonesian tin supply and the slow recovery of overseas tin mines, combined with macro - economic factors, have led to a shortage in the global tin supply, causing tin prices to soar. The supply is expected to remain tight before mid - October, and the tin price may continue to strengthen. The复产 speed of the Burmese tin mines may determine the supply elasticity of tin, and if the Indonesian crackdown exceeds expectations or the Burmese复产 is further delayed, the tin price may break through the previous high [2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Aspects Indonesian Supply - Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter (accounting for over 25% of global supply), has intensified the global tin supply shortage. The Indonesian president ordered the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines on September 29 and plans to crack down on 80% of illegal mining activities. The illegal mine closure may widen the global tin mine supply gap to over 8000 tons in the fourth quarter. In August, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 3246.46 tons, a 14.39% month - on - month decrease, and exports are expected to continue to decline significantly [2]. Burmese Supply - The复产 of Burmese tin mines is progressing slowly. In August, China imported only 2091 tons of tin ore from Burma, a 27.72% year - on - year decrease, accounting for only 20% of the total domestic imports. Due to the rainy season, equipment shortages, and explosive controls, the actual output remains low, and the output increase is expected to be realized in November [4]. Domestic Supply - Overseas tin mine supply recovery is slow, and domestic raw material supply is tight. Domestic smelter operating rates are continuously decreasing. Yunnan tin smelters have been on a 45 - day maintenance since August 30, and Jiangxi's refined tin output remains low due to a shortage of scrap and crude tin. Domestic smelter output is expected to recover around mid - October, and the low LME tin inventory cannot be quickly replenished [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 93%. The weakening US dollar and the expectation of loose liquidity have boosted the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is strong, with overall supply - demand conditions improving. However, due to the approaching end of pre - holiday restocking and weakening market sentiment, the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the start - up rates in the north and south regions and the start - up rate of polysilicon [5][6]. - For polysilicon, there is an increase in supply and weak demand, with a growing risk of inventory accumulation. Market sentiment is gradually weakening, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. The price transmission in the industrial chain should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 8960 yuan/ton [5][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's production is stable with a small amount of restarts next week; the start - up rate in the northwest is basically stable; Yunnan's start - up rate is stable overall, and the electricity price will increase in October; Sichuan's production is basically flat, and a reduction is expected in late October. Overall, this week's production is basically stable [5]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the demand for silicon powder orders from silicon material enterprises has been released. The production of silicon materials in October is expected to remain high, strongly supporting the demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon has fluctuated slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained stable. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, the same as last week [6]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 51,465 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The start - up of polysilicon has increased slightly this week. In October, the production plan shows that the production cut of silicon material enterprises is less than expected, and the overall output may exceed expectations [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises are mostly in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. In August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity hit a new low this year, and the Q4 downstream demand needs to be tracked. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%; in July, the export was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the premium of N - type dense material over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week [24]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica**: As of September 26, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silicon coal was 1600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silica was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Yunnan silica was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Other Costs**: The price of Shandong Port Saudi petroleum coke was 1355 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained unchanged from last week. The price of Yunnan wood chips and charcoal, as well as the price of Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes, remained stable [31][35]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of September 26, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.4, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The price of 210RN has adjusted back to 1.4 yuan/piece [38]. - **Batteries**: As of September 26, 2025, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.32, 0.32, 0.29, and 0.305 yuan/watt respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The prices of some distributed products have declined, while the prices of centralized products have rebounded [42][45]. Organic Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of organic silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased [53].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply of iron ore is gradually increasing, with the global shipment rebounding, an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ore shipments, a slight decrease in Brazilian ore, and a slight decline in domestic ore production. On the demand side, the hot metal output continues to increase, but the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills is basically over, weakening the support for ore prices. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not significant. However, as the pre - holiday market sentiment cools, the futures price has declined. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the recovery range of steel demand in the peak season. The strategy is range - bound trading. [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Content Price - Spot prices are oscillating downward [7] Mineral Powder Spread - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder is oscillating at a low level [13] - The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder is oscillating at a low level [17] Futures Spread and Basis - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuates little, and the 01 basis oscillates at a low level [21] Relative Valuation - The steel - ore ratio oscillates at a low level, and the ore - coke ratio oscillates at a high level [28] Supply - Global shipments stop falling and rebound, and non - mainstream ore shipments stop falling and rebound. From September 22nd to 28th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 34.754 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.506 million tons [5][34] - Australian ore shipped to China stops falling and rebounds, while Brazilian ore shipments decline slightly. The Australian shipment volume was 20.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0928 million tons; the Brazilian shipment volume was 8.193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 million tons [5][38] - FMG and BHP shipments to China increase slightly [43] - RT shipments to China stop falling and rebound, while VALE shipments decline [47] - The freight rate index rebounds slightly [51] - The 45 - port arrival volume is 23.605 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.145 million tons [5] - The output of domestic iron concentrate decreases slightly. As of September 26th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 mines nationwide was 478,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.38% [5] Demand - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces oscillates at a low level [67] - The profitability of steel mills declines, but the hot metal output rebounds slightly. On September 26th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons [5][73] Inventory - The port inventory rebounds slightly, and the port throughput is at a high level. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increases slightly, and the number of ships at the port decreases by 3 to 99 [5][80] - The inventory of Australian ore stops falling and rebounds, and the inventory of Brazilian ore continues to rise [84] - The coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory rebounds from a low level [91] - Steel mills' consumption is relatively high, and the inventory of imported ore rebounds significantly [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong performance of non-ferrous metals is mainly influenced by risk aversion, financial attributes, and emergencies. However, the downstream spot demand and industry fundamentals have not shown significant improvement. The non-ferrous metal market is highly uncertain during the National Day holiday, so excessive optimism is not advisable [11]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamentals - The US will impose a new round of high tariffs on various imported products starting from October 1, which, along with Sino-US trade disputes, will have an adverse impact on non-ferrous metals [1]. - Global geopolitical risks are rising. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensified Middle East conflicts, and border conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia have led to a strong support for precious metals due to risk aversion, and also support the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals, benefiting copper and slightly benefiting other metals [2]. - Global economic data has been poor since August, and it is unlikely to improve rapidly in the future, which is a negative factor for non-ferrous metals [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in September. The market expects two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December, and market sentiment is neutral [5]. - China's central bank emphasizes implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. With stable money and credit data in August, the market expects no immediate interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio cuts, and domestic policy may enter a stable period, with a near - neutral impact [6]. Spot Supply and Demand Situation - Eight departments jointly issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry, aiming for an average annual increase of about 5% in added value from 2025 - 2026, and an average annual increase of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals [7]. - The traditional peak season for non - ferrous metals in China has weakened this year. The spot market has not shown an obvious peak - season trend, and the spot end has not effectively supported the market. Attention should be paid to the spot demand around the National Day [8]. - The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to a mudslide led to a 3.2% one - day increase in the three - month copper price on the LME. Although it caused short - term disturbances, the high inventory prevented obvious supply - demand mismatches, and the sustainability of the price increase is questionable [9]. - The suspension of car replacement subsidies in many regions and the change in vehicle purchase tax policy have brought uncertainty to the new energy vehicle market. The fluctuations in the automotive industry may have a significant impact on the downstream demand for non - ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum [10].