Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of lead is insufficient, and it may continue to fluctuate. The short - term supply pressure of lead is relieved, and the low domestic inventory continuing to decline is beneficial to lead prices. However, due to the year - end closing of downstream enterprises, weak demand, and the pressure of imported lead inflow, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum in the domestic market. But with the increase in costs, there is strong support at the bottom, so it may move in a fluctuating manner. Later, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was at the average level in recent years. Due to the high demand in the domestic lead concentrate market in winter, the tight situation at the domestic mine end intensified, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates further declined at low levels [2] - In December, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 20 US dollars. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also with no change week - on - week [2] Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead output increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the output of recycled refined lead increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year [3] - Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Some smelters in Hunan mentioned that environmental inspections affected the start - up of crude lead, but the electrolytic volume last week could maintain stable production. It is expected that the electrolytic lead output may decline slightly this week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan continued to increase production after the end of maintenance, and a small - scale smelter resumed production and slightly increased production. Other smelters maintained normal operation. A smelter in East China that had stopped production for maintenance has not resumed yet and is expected to resume at the end of December [3] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. Due to severe air pollution in many places in East and North China last week, environmental management was implemented. Anhui smelting enterprises significantly reduced production, and the regional operating rate decreased by 11.88% month - on - month; the operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained the same as last week. A recycled lead smelter in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production due to equipment part replacement and resumed normal production last week, and the regional operating rate rebounded, but local smelters said that the pressure on production due to raw material supply shortages still existed [3] - This week, the price of waste batteries continued to rise, the profit of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and combined with the large environmental protection disturbances of recycled lead, the supply pressure of recycled lead was relieved. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 74.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Since December, the new national standard for electric bicycles has been officially implemented in the terminal market, but the actual consumption has not improved significantly due to the increase in the weight of the whole vehicle. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the sales volume of the whole vehicle declined, dragging down battery consumption. Some lead - acid battery enterprises have slightly reduced production or planned to reduce production, dragging down the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises this week [4] - The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season. Except for some export - oriented enterprises with poor orders due to factors such as tariffs, the operating rates of other medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable. Near the end of the year, traders and battery enterprises are closing their accounts at the end of the year, and the inventory preparation of battery enterprises for the New Year's Day holiday is average. The spot trading is weak, and most downstream enterprises have stopped purchasing, resulting in low market transactions [4] Spot - As of the week of December 19, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 130 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 45.23 US dollars at the end of last week [4] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 23,875 tons to 258,600 tons, and the LME inventory continued to rise from a high level; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4,352 tons to 27,900 tons. As of December 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places decreased to 19,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline, reaching an absolute low level in the past four years [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel products have limited contradictions, and steel prices will fluctuate in the short term. The profitability of steel mills has improved, iron - water production has slightly increased, and the production of rebar has continued to rise. However, demand is weak in the off - season. The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded, but its sustainability is questionable, and exports are expected to face pressure. The inventory of steel products is being depleted, but there is still pressure on hot - rolled coil inventory. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production and Supply - **Production Capacity Utilization**: The blast furnace operating rate is 78.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The electric furnace operating rate is 67.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6%; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate is 53.22%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. [5] - **Output**: The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. The weekly output of rebar from major national steel mills is 184.39 million tons (+2.71), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 293.54 million tons (+1.63). The iron - water output is 2.2658 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 million tons. [5] 3.2 Demand - **Rebar**: The demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 202.68 million tons (-5.96). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 9.49 million tons. [5][49] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The demand for hot - rolled coils has rebounded. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 307.04 million tons (+8.76). As of December 26, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 3.05 million tons, and the downstream cold - rolled output was 86.48 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.39 million tons. [5][53] 3.3 Inventory - **Rebar**: The total inventory of rebar is 434.25 million tons (-18.29), the social inventory is 294.19 million tons (-18.81), and the steel mill inventory is 140.06 million tons (+0.52). [5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 377.22 million tons (-13.5), the social inventory is 296.7 million tons (-10.6), and the steel mill inventory is 80.52 million tons (-2.9). The inventory decline has increased, but it is still at a high level. [5] - **Overall**: The inventory of major steel products is being depleted. As of December 26, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.35 million tons, and the inventory of major steel products is 8.7279 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33.9 million tons. [56] 3.4 Price - **Spot Price**: As of December 26, the average price of rebar in major national cities is 3316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the average price of hot - rolled coils in the country is 3288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. [9] - **Basis**: The basis has shrunk. The basis of the rebar main contract is 172 yuan/ton (-9), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract is - 13 yuan/ton (-14). [5] 3.5 Other Market Information - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197,800 tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons. [66] - **Automobile Market**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons. [70] - **Real Estate Market**: From January to November, real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the newly started area of houses was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the completed area of houses was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales area of commercial housing was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in the sales amount of commercial housing was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in the available funds was 11.9%. [73]

Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 84.21% (-2.41%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 73.76 tons (-1.79). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 36.32% (-1.36%), and the daily output of clean coal was 26.59 tons (-0.7). At the end of the year, the import of Mongolian coal increased significantly, and the overall supply pressure remained [3]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills were 12.96 days (-0.06), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.49 days (+0.06). Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement [3]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 282.9 tons (+10.13), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1039.72 tons (+3.43), the steel mill inventory was 806.72 tons (+1.73), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 329 tons (+1.72), and the inventory of major ports was 299.5 tons (+13.33). Procurement sentiment weakened [3]. - Summary: Last week, the supply of the coking coal market declined slightly and remained at a low level, and the procurement sentiment in the off - season of demand was weak. The import pressure of Mongolian coal will decrease in the new year, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. With the increasing expectation of winter storage replenishment, the market will remain volatile [3]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was - 18 yuan/ton (-34), the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 71.66% (-0.39%), the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 62.67 tons (-0.33), and the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.9 tons (+0.31). The overall supply changed little [4]. - Demand: The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 226.58 tons (+0.03), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.32% (-0.15), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.01 days (+0.29). The rigid demand for coke weakened [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 92.24 tons (+1.14), the inventory of major ports was 178.2 tons (+2.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 642.2 tons (+8.47). The overall social inventory of coke increased [4]. - Summary: The supply of coke changed little. The demand structure was weak, and there was a strong expectation of price cuts for coke spot. However, with the increasing expectation of steel mill resumption in January and the support of winter storage replenishment, the futures market is expected to remain volatile at a low level [4]. Macro Real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, new construction, construction, completion, and sales area of national real estate cumulative year - on - year, weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, steel industry PMI, and manufacturing PMI, but no in - depth analysis is provided [6][10][14][18] Coking Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coking coal procurement prices, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, production, operating rate, inventory, and Mongolian coal customs clearance in relevant regions, but no in - depth analysis is provided [21][26][31] Coke Supply and Demand Tracking - The report shows data on coke ex - factory prices, price adjustment schedules, spot price comparison, price difference tracking, profit, production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and inventory available days, but no in - depth analysis is provided [61][63][69]

市场情绪扰动，多晶硅高位震荡 工业硅/多晶硅 20251229 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 工业硅 价格：现货方面，本周工业硅现货价格稳定。截至2025年12月26日，新疆工业硅553#通氧价格为8800元/吨，环比上 周持平。期货方面，本周主力合约低位震荡，截至12月26日主力合约收8880元/吨。 供应：新疆地区个别硅炉有增减情况，总量变化不大，1月大厂因环保问题存减产预期，视月底石河子天气情况而定， 重点关注新疆硅企开工变化；云南地区开工环比微降；四川地区开工持稳。整体而言，工业硅产量环比小幅回落。 需求：多晶硅周度开工基本稳定，12月预期产量环比持稳，对工业硅消耗稳定；有机硅开工基本稳定，下游有机硅单 体厂开工也持稳为主；铝合金企业开工率大体稳定。出口方面，11月工业硅出口5.49万吨，环比增加22%，同比增加 4%。 成本：本周工业硅成本暂稳。 库存：SMM统计12月25日工业硅全国社会库存共计55.5万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨。 后市研判：目前工业硅供应端小幅下降，需求也有减量，下方成本支撑较强，且近期反内卷预期增强，预计短期内盘 面维持震荡，关注北方开工变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoint - Imported corn is rapidly increasing, and import auctions address concerns about the shortage of high - quality grains due to grain quality differentiation. Corn sales may slow down in the later stage. Corn is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain a safe reserve, while traders should buy low and sell high [5]. 3. Summary of Each Part Market Price and Basis - The corn main 2603 contract rebounded after a short - term continuous adjustment. The spot price was stable, with the Pingcang price of corn in Bayuquan at 2,290 yuan/ton and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port dropping from 2,430 yuan/ton to 2,420 yuan/ton. The corn basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly, and the discount of the futures price widened. The starch main 2603 contract stabilized and rebounded. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated [3]. Supply - related Factors - **New Grain Sales**: Imported corn invitation - bidding sales continued, curbing the bullish sentiment in the market and reducing the enthusiasm of downstream procurement. New grain sales were still relatively fast, but slowed down in some areas. As of December 25, the national grain sales progress was 45%, 4% faster than the same period last year; in Northeast China, it was 44%, 8% faster; in North China, it was 40%, 1% slower; in Northwest China, it was 61%, the same as last year. With the auction of imported corn and the approaching of holidays, the grain sales progress slowed down [3]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, the corn inventory in northern ports was 1.803 million tons, slightly increasing month - on - month and significantly lower than the same period last year; the weekly shipping volume was 827,000 tons, rising to a high in recent years. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 224,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 278,000 tons, both increasing month - on - month due to a large increase in imports. The inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises continued to increase. As of December 26, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3.378 million tons, continuously rising but lower than the same period last year; the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 29.88 days, slightly decreasing month - on - month [3]. - **Import**: The wheat - corn price difference remained at a high level, making substitution unfeasible. In November, China's corn imports increased significantly again. According to customs data, 555,000 tons of corn were imported in November, a 55% month - on - month increase and an 85% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.847 million tons, a 86.3% year - on - year decrease. Imports of barley and wheat also increased. The increase in domestic corn imports and auctions supplemented the market's expectation of a shortage of high - quality grains, and imports may continue to increase in the later stage [4]. - **External Market**: The U.S. corn in the external market rebounded recently. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's December supply - demand report increased U.S. corn exports and reduced its ending inventory, but overall, there was still pressure of increased production and inventory compared with last year. The global ending inventory of corn was slightly reduced, a 4.85% year - on - year decrease [4]. Demand - related Factors - **Feed Demand**: The pig price was low, and pig farming continued to suffer large losses. As of December 26, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 162.8 yuan per head, and the loss continued to narrow; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 130.11 yuan per head, and the loss also narrowed. The production capacity of sows continued to decline. In October, the national inventory of sows was 39.9 million, 450,000 less than the previous month, and the reduction rate increased. In November, large - scale farms reduced the inventory of sows, the sales volume of piglets declined, but the inventory of commercial pigs increased. It was difficult for the pig inventory to decline in the fourth quarter. In the poultry sector, the egg price was low, and poultry farming continued to suffer losses; in November, the sales volume of chicken chicks stabilized, and the culling of old chickens continued to increase; in November, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly again. Feed demand may slow down. In November, the national industrial feed output was 28.73 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing 6% year - on - year. If losses continue in the later stage, it may affect spring replenishment and accelerate capacity reduction [5]. - **Deep - processing Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was insufficient. The operating rate of starch processing enterprises continued to decline. As of December 26, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 60.46%, continuing to decline month - on - month. The starch inventory was 1.102 million tons, increasing month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises continued to suffer losses, and the operating rate dropped to 65.02%. The operating rate of downstream starch sugar enterprises rebounded, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises was relatively strong [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX has maintained a strong pattern since the fourth quarter due to improved downstream demand, positive news such as Sino - US tariff talks, and India's relaxation of BIS certification. It is expected to remain in a tight supply - demand situation until the maintenance season from March to May 2026 [3]. - The pure benzene market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New domestic production capacity has led to oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. Although there is some support from the strong external aromatic hydrocarbon prices and raw material rebounds, the oversupply situation is expected to continue until the maintenance season [4]. - The styrene market has shown a decline overall. Although there have been short - term rebounds, the fundamental supply - demand situation is weak. In the short term, the market is trading on the strength of aromatic hydrocarbon prices and export news. In the medium term, there may be an opportunity for improvement in the supply - demand pattern in the second quarter if upstream production contracts and port inventories are further reduced [6]. 3. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices have rebounded, leading to a continuous increase in PX's external market price. As of December 24, Asian PX closed at $901/ton, up $92.17/ton from the end of the third quarter. The spread between PX and naphtha reached $360.75/ton, up $143.67/ton from the end of the third quarter. Sinopec raised its December PX listing price to 7,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: This week's PX output was 748,200 tons, with a weekly average domestic PX capacity utilization rate of 89.21%, both unchanged from the previous week. Some PX plants are under maintenance, but overall, the production enthusiasm of PX plants remains high, and there are no changes in the operation of plants [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of downstream PTA was 73.81%, unchanged from the previous week and 8.41% lower than the same period last year. There were no new adjustments to domestic plants this week [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene market has been in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. With high port inventories and expectations of further inventory accumulation, the far - month futures prices have been under pressure. The futures prices have declined from a high of 6,439 yuan/ton in late July to a low of 5,353 yuan/ton in mid - November and then stabilized at a low level [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: In November, the national pure benzene output was 1.908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.03%. The capacity utilization rate in November was 76.48%. The import volume in November was 459,600 tons, remaining at a high level. Overall, supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 273,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a 5% increase [4]. - **Profit**: Terminal demand is insufficient. Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, adipic acid, and phenol are still in a loss - making state, but the profit of pure benzene itself has recovered, and the profits of caprolactam and aniline have further increased, while the loss of disproportionation devices has increased [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures Performance**: The main styrene contract has rebounded since mid - month, mainly due to the increase in raw material and external market prices. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. There has been a slight increase in port inventories, with stable rigid demand and an unexpected decrease in supply [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: From December 11 - 17, 2025, the average profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan/ton from the previous period, a 127.60% decrease. On December 24, the daily profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China was - 177 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses compared to the previous working day [5]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: From December 12 - 18, 2025, the total output of styrene plants in China was 346,800 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period, a 2.36% increase. The capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, an increase of 1.02%. Some plants such as Sinochem Quanzhou, Tianjin Bohua, and Northeast Baolai are under maintenance [5]. - **Downstream**: The consumption of ABS, PS, and EPS during the period was 261,800 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.89% decrease. The operation rates of the three major downstream plants have all declined, and the overall profitability of the industry is not expected to be good [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 139,300 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 3.41% increase. The commercial inventory was 84,550 tons, an increase of 2,250 tons from the previous period, a 2.73% increase [5].

博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 补库预期支撑，盘面震荡反弹 铁矿石周报 20251224 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 交易逻辑：补库预期支撑，盘面震荡反弹 供应：外矿方面，12月15日-12月21日，全球铁矿石发运总量3464.5万吨，环比减少128.0万吨；澳洲发运量1950.6万吨，环比 减少102.0万吨；巴西发运量859.4万吨，环比减少39.4万吨，非主流矿发运量1231.5万吨，环比增加22.6万吨。中国45港到港 总量2646.7万吨，环比减少76.7万吨。内矿方面，截至12月19日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量44.79万吨，环比降0.59万吨， 产能利用率57.31%，环比降0.77%；矿山精粉库存85.31万吨，环比增4.1万吨。 需求：12月19日当周，日均铁水产量226.55万吨，环比-2.65万吨。钢厂年度检修及环保检修增多，叠加河北环保限产加严， 铁水产量继续下滑，刚需支撑偏弱。 库存：本期进口矿库存延续增加，在港船舶数量增加4艘至111艘。本期压港有所增加，到港维持高位，港口库存延续累库，维 持高位水平，而钢厂库存持续低位回落， ...

沪锡高位或有调整风险 基本面情况 锡精矿：海关总署数据显示11月份国内锡矿进口量为15099吨，同比增长24.43%，环比增加29.8%；缅甸进口量为 7190吨，同比增加133%。缅甸进口锡精矿进口回升明显，虽目前仍在近年来均值水平之下，预计后续恢复将加快。 但短期国内锡矿供应紧张延续，国内锡矿加工费维持低位。国内40%锡精矿加工费（云南）12000元/吨，环比持平。 60%锡精矿加工费（广西）8000元/吨，环比持平。 供应：2025年11月，中国精炼锡产量15490吨，同比下降6.0%，环比下降0.8%，1-11月累计产量15.8万吨，同比下 降1.7%。目前国内冶炼端压力未解，国内冶炼厂原料库存普遍低于30天，后续冶炼企业开工率难以增长，预计12月 精炼锡产量环比小幅回升。11月中国锡锭进口1195吨，环比增加127.2%，同比下降66%；精锡出口1948吨，环比增 加30.3%，同比增加32.3。目前沪伦比价震荡，锡进口维持亏损状态。11月印尼精炼锡出口7458.64吨，环比上升 182.20%，由于受RKAB审批影响，预计明年一季度供应仍将受到限制。 消费: 传统消费领域需求不畅，但中期半导体行业 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soybean Auction Restarts, Soybean Meal Weakly Fluctuates" [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Hongye Futures Financial Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - Soybean No. 1: The main contract changed to 2605, fluctuating up and down during the week. The spot price rose slightly, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans increasing from 4,100 yuan/ton to around 4,120 yuan/ton. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, with the futures price at a slight discount [4]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2605 contract weakly fluctuated. The spot price slightly declined, with the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal dropping from 3,060 yuan/ton to around 3,030 yuan/ton. The basis fluctuated and strengthened, with the futures discount widening [4]. Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic Sales: Sales of domestic soybeans showed regional differentiation. Due to the quality differentiation in North China, the sales progress varied by region. As of December 19, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang dropped to 58%, in Anhui to 56%, in Henan to 60%, and in Shandong to 64%. Except for Northeast China, which was faster than the same period last year, other regions were slower [4]. - State Reserve Auction: State reserve soybean auctions restarted. On December 23, 210,000 tons were put up for auction, and 130,000 tons were sold [4]. Group 4: Imported Soybean Situation - Imported Auction: Imported soybean auctions resumed in December. As of December 19, over 1.5 million tons had been put up for auction, with nearly 900,000 tons sold in total. In November, China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans, a decline from the previous month but still a 13.3% increase year-on-year. Chinese purchases of soybeans slowed down, and port soybean inventories continued to decline. However, with the supplement from imported auctions, the domestic soybean supply was sufficient [4]. - Port Inventory: As of December 19, the soybean arrival volume at oil mills was 1.9825 million tons, a decline from the previous week. Port soybean inventories were 8.656 million tons, continuing to decline [4]. Group 5: US Soybean Situation - US Soybean Trend: US soybeans continued to decline and adjust. The USDA December supply and demand report made few adjustments and was neutral. There were concerns about Chinese future soybean purchases and the increasing production pressure of the new South American soybean season [5]. Group 6: Oil Mill Situation - Operating Rate: As of December 19, the oil mill operating rate was 58.61%, a slight increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The soybean crushing volume was 2.1306 million tons, and the soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.2236 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. - Soybean Meal Inventory: The soybean meal production was 1.683 million tons, an increase from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.1371 million tons, an increase from the previous week and at a high level in recent years. The unsold soybean meal contracts were 4.736 million tons, a decline from the previous week [5]. Group 7: Feed Demand Situation - Pig Farming: Pig prices were low, and farming losses were still large. As of December 19, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -189.5 yuan per head, narrowing, and the profit from self - breeding and self - fattening was -130.88 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity continued. In October, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads from the previous month. The inventory of large - scale farms also decreased in November. The birth and sales volume of piglets both declined, indicating a weak mentality for restocking. The commercial pig inventory still increased, and it was difficult for the national pig inventory to decrease in the fourth quarter [6]. - Poultry Farming: Egg prices were low, and poultry farming continued to operate at a loss. The number of culled poultry increased, and the inventory in November decreased slightly month - on - month, and was expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In the short term, the rigid demand for feed was still strong, but there were concerns about capacity reduction in the long term [6]. Group 8: Market Outlook - Soybean No. 1: It will continue to fluctuate as the sales of domestic soybeans are differentiated and the price increase slows down with the supplement from auctions [6]. - Soybean Meal: It will weakly fluctuate and adjust due to sufficient domestic soybean supply, a slight increase in oil mill operating rates, high soybean meal inventories, and strong demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, with individual specifications stabilizing after a decline; the futures price is in low - level oscillation. The supply from overseas is expected to decrease in mid - to - late January, but the recent arrival volume at Chinese ports has increased significantly. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot price. The log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium - to - long term [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - The main source of radiata pine is New Zealand, and the main sources of fir and spruce are Europe [13]. Periodic Spot - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 740 yuan per cubic meter, down from the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 720 yuan per cubic meter, also down from the previous period. Overall, the log spot price is running weakly [3]. - Futures: As of the close on December 23, the main log contract 2603 closed at 770 yuan per cubic meter, in low - level oscillation [3]. - From December 13 - 19, 2025, a total of 10 ships with 390,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 4 ships and 140,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China from New Zealand, a decrease of 4 ships and 150,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The expected arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports from December 22 - 28, 2025, is 9 ships, a 40% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume is about 309,000 cubic meters, a 41% week - on - week decrease. In November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [3]. Inventory - As of December 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.19 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. The downstream demand is weakly stable, and the high arrival volume has continuously pressured the port log inventory and spot price. The decrease in arrivals in mid - November created conditions for inventory reduction, but the inventory is facing a new round of arrival impacts [4]. Demand - As of December 19, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a 2.17% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 33,400 cubic meters, a 2.91% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 25,200 cubic meters, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Due to the large arrival pressure and seasonal factors suppressing downstream demand, traders increased their sales pressure and promoted sales by reducing prices [4]. Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. The anti - involution policy has had a certain indirect boost. The Sino - US joint statement in May is beneficial to wood product exports, and the suspension of tariffs in July and subsequent tariff changes have affected the market. The EU has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood, and Mexico has made an affirmative anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Chinese cardboard. China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. New Zealand's supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival [5]. Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot price strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. In the third quarter, the price first increased and then decreased due to the weak real estate industry. In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. In the short term, the 2601 contract may enter delivery at a discount and face a risk of further decline. After the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken further, and whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on new support policies in the real estate industry and cost reduction and demand recovery expectations after the Spring Festival [6].