Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Lackluster Performance in Peak Season, Profitability Under Pressure (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin [2] - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] - Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: PX Market Analysis Cost - International oil prices first declined and then rose recently, supported by geopolitical instability. Current Japanese naphtha is at $608/ton, and PX CFR is at $817/ton. Sinopec's September PX listed price is 7,200 yuan/ton, and the August settlement price was 7,020 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Domestic PX weekly output was 733,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.86%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, up 1.59% week-on-week. Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000-ton and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4-million-ton units continued maintenance, planned to restart in early November. Daxie's load increased to 90% in mid-September [3] Demand - Downstream PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 76.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.81% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. Fuhai Chuang restarted as scheduled, but South China units reduced load or stopped due to weather [3] Summary and Outlook - The main 2511 contract has been in a low-level shock after a rapid decline since late August, and has continued its weakness recently. From the second quarter, the intensification of the Israel-Iran conflict in June boosted oil prices, and PX followed suit. Then, the US announced a full ceasefire, reducing the possibility of an oil crisis, and downstream prices declined with the rapid fall in the cost end. Since mid-July, affected by the macro commodity atmosphere, chemicals generally rose under the "anti-involution" policy, and PX oscillated upward supported by strong supply and demand, then fell again as the market cooled. In mid-August, it rose rapidly affected by the macro and commodity market sentiment, then gave back previous gains. Currently, the increase in PX supply due to short-process load increase and postponed maintenance of some units is obvious, while on the demand side, after the significant compression of PTA profits, rumors of production cuts increased, and terminal demand is still below expectations. If terminal demand improves gradually as the peak season approaches and the macro atmosphere is strong, there is still room for an upward trend during the "Golden September and Silver October." However, the demand in the traditional peak season is currently poor, processing fees are under pressure at a low level, and the PX supply-demand situation remains weak. The future market still depends on changes in downstream demand and profits, with a weak oscillation [3] Group 3: Pure Benzene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2603 contract of pure benzene has been oscillating after a continuous decline since mid-September. The basis between the futures main 2603 contract and East China spot has further narrowed to par, mainly due to the downward adjustment of the spot end. The arbitrage window from East China to Shandong has partially opened. There are currently reports of improved pre-holiday procurement enthusiasm from downstream and active spot buying, with the near-month contract at a premium to the far-month contract (September to October) [4] Supply and Demand - The estimated monthly output of pure benzene in August 2025 was 1.9633 million tons, an increase of 78,900 tons from the previous month and 112,500 tons from the same month last year. Units such as Fuhai Chuang, Dongfang Hualong, and Dongming Petrochemical restarted, while units such as Jincheng Petrochemical, a cracking unit of CNOOC Shell, and a cracking unit of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical stopped [4] Summary and Outlook - The spot and futures prices of pure benzene are currently at a low level. The peak season demand from downstream is currently below expectations, but the room for further decline is limited due to rigid demand procurement. The losses of styrene and phenol are expected to continue to repair. There are also reports of postponed procurement plans from downstream. In the short term, the market is trading on the expectation of styrene inventory accumulation. The spot demand for pure benzene has improved, and the supply-demand surplus has turned into a balance, but the far-month expectation remains weak. In the medium to long term, there is still an expectation of oversupply [4] Group 4: Styrene Market Analysis Futures and Spot - The main 2511 contract of styrene has been weakly oscillating recently, with a slight rebound following the cost end in the middle of the week. The current mainstream price in East China is 6,940 yuan/ton, down from before. The domestic supply of styrene has been continuously decreasing, and downstream demand has been good, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance. However, the terminal inventory has not decreased, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation, maintaining a weak and bearish expectation. The high-end transaction price of Jiangsu spot is 7,060 yuan/ton, the low-end is 6,840 yuan/ton, and the price difference between high and low ends is 220 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Chain Profit - On a weekly basis, the average profit of non-integrated styrene units in China was -485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 25.18%. The weekly profit of non-integrated styrene units in China continued to decrease, showing a downward trend. The weekly average decline of pure benzene was lower than that of styrene, and the price difference between pure benzene and styrene further narrowed, ranging from 1,030 to 1,170 yuan/ton during the period. The profitability of non-integrated styrene units decreased [5] Industrial Chain Operating Rate - The total output of styrene factories in China was 345,800 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.29%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 73.24%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%. The newly put into operation 670,000-ton unit of Jingbo Sida Rui has been included in the total capacity. Production profits led to a decrease in the load of individual units, and the Zhenli Chemical unit stopped. The loss completely covered the increase in production brought by the return of units, resulting in a slight decrease in overall output. It is expected that the impact of stopped and reduced-load units will increase around the holiday, and there are no plans for unit restart and production increase, so the output will continue to decline [5] Downstream - The improvement in exports due to previous tariff cuts was lower than expected. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries have improved significantly compared to before mid-May. The main downstream industries still have profit margins, but the current downstream demand has decreased. Among them, ABS and PS have fluctuated slightly, and some EPS units in South China stopped due to typhoons, leading to a significant decrease in demand. The fundamental problem of poor profitability in the styrene industry has not changed. It is expected that downstream demand will continue to decrease around the holiday [5] Inventory - As of September 22, 2025, the total inventory of the mainstream styrene storage areas in South China was 13,600 tons, a decrease of 8,200 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 37.61%. According to the current port inventory data, the overall pick-up has remained stable. Affected by the typhoon weather, the arrival of ships at the port was postponed, resulting in a significant decrease in overall inventory [5] Summary and Outlook - Since mid-May, the previously continuously rising styrene has oscillated and declined. From the perspective of the supply-demand structure, styrene was in a tight supply-demand balance in the second quarter. In May, large-scale units such as Shandong Lihuayi, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Dalian Hengli were under maintenance, and the factory inventory data decreased tightly. The supply-demand side remained strong, and the decline was mainly due to the回调 of the cost end and the less-than-expected improvement in the export market and downstream. On the one hand, the pressure of increased crude oil production and poor demand prospects in the cost end still exists. On the other hand, the operating rates of the main downstream industries increased in mid-May and then declined, and the spot demand was still poor. Since mid-June, the spot and futures prices have continuously risen, on the one hand, affected by inventory news, and on the other hand, due to the strong cost end. Geopolitical news such as the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz once formed a significant positive impact, and then returned to the fundamentals. Styrene has continuously accumulated inventory, and the production and capacity utilization rates have significantly increased, and styrene itself has shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. In mid-July, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, styrene old units with high energy consumption, backward technology, and small scale have become the focus of policy clearance. Previously, the production capacities of Maoming Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Qilu Petrochemical have been in long-term shutdown, which is in line with the policy orientation. The increase in the futures price was mainly driven by the macro commodity sentiment. Since its own supply and demand was still in a weak off-season state, the production and sales profitability was average. Since the end of July, it has followed the cooling of the commodity market. In late August, it experienced a rapid decline and has recently oscillated and rebounded, but has not returned to the previous high. Currently, the crude oil end has first declined and then risen, the fundamentals of pure benzene itself have improved, and the cost side has a single-sided driving force. In terms of styrene's own supply and demand, the domestic supply still has room for further decline, and the downstream demand is also expected to decrease during the holiday. It is expected that the downstream rigid demand will be maintained during the holiday, and the spot demand will be weakly stable. The supply and demand will be temporarily in a wide balance state. Affected by the relatively low absolute price of styrene, there may be continuous short position reduction before the holiday. In the medium to long term, the profit of styrene units is poor. The supply and demand sides may improve during the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the oversupply pattern of the raw material end may drive the price further down [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

铜周报—美联储降息刺激，铜价震荡偏强 当地时间 9 月 14 日，中美双方在西班牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。 美联储降息在即，市场情绪总体偏向乐观，周五美元小幅反弹，有色金属周五大 涨后夜盘多数回落。今日 8 月中国工业、投资、消费数据全面不及预期，失业率 小幅上升，关税影响逐步显现。今日人民币小幅上涨美元下跌，美联储降息临近， 市场情绪仍然偏强，有色金属探底回升多数上涨。沪铜上涨，伦铜上涨，国际铜 上涨，国内现货铜下跌。 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 电话：025-52278450 邮箱：zhangtianao@ftol.com.cn 2025-9-15 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报 80940，现货报 81070，沪铜日内低开高走，现 货较期货升水 130 点。今日现货基差升水下降至 80 点，现货成交不佳。LME 现 货贴水本周小幅收窄至-73 美元，外盘现货需求一般。本周美铜库存继续大幅上 升，伦铜库存下降，沪铜库存上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨， 洋山铜溢价下降至 53.5 美元，国内现货需求一般。铜价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The steel prices are oscillating with differentiation among varieties. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, while the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production are on the rise. The production of rebar has decreased but remains at a high level, with demand continuing to fall and the peak - season expectations unfulfilled. The terminal demand is still weak, and the rebar inventory has increased, adding to the inventory pressure. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both increased, with production reaching a new high for the year, a significant increase in demand, and a slight reduction in inventory. Steel exports have decreased month - on - month but still show resilience. The market sentiment was boosted by macro factors on Friday, and the cost side still provides support. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, and attention should be paid to the changes in peak - season demand. In the short term, the steel market will operate in an oscillatory manner [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production - Molten iron production reached 2405500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 117100 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.83%, a week - on - week increase of 3.43%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39%. The electric furnace operating rate was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% [5]. - As of September 12, the production of rebar decreased by 67500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, the long - process production decreased by 31100 tons week - on - week, and the short - process production decreased by 36400 tons week - on - week. The production of hot - rolled coils increased by 109000 tons week - on - week [35]. 3.2 Demand - Recently, high - frequency data showed that the apparent demand for rebar decreased, while that for hot - rolled coils increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1980700 tons (- 40000), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3261600 tons (+ 208000) [5]. - As of September 12, the weekly average of building material trading volume was 103000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6128.8 tons, with a slight increase in trading. The weekly average of hot - rolled coil trading volume was 34700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1043 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 846000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12400 tons [44][49]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory was 6538600 tons (+ 138600), the social inventory was 4872300 tons (+ 185700), and the steel mill inventory was 1666300 tons (- 47100). The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3733200 tons (- 10200), the social inventory was 2924400 tons (- 19200), and the steel mill inventory was 808800 tons (+ 9000) [5]. - As of September 12, the billet inventory in Tangshan was 611000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14200 tons. The inventory of major steel products was 10953200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 179600 tons [53]. 3.4 Basis As of September 12, the basis of the rebar main contract was 93 yuan/ton (- 4), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 36 yuan/ton (- 4) [12]. 3.5 Raw Materials The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1401 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [15]. 3.6 Other Related Data - According to customs data, steel exports in August were 9.41 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330000 tons; from January to August, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.49 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10% [65]. - According to Steel Union data, automobile production in August was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 223900 vehicles. New energy vehicle production in July was 1.243 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 25000 vehicles [69]. - From January to August, national real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.9%. Specifically, from January to August, the new construction area of houses was 398.01 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%, with a decline rate of 0.1%. The completed area of houses was 276.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%, with a decline rate of 0.5%. From January to August, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, with a decline rate of 0.7%. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a decline rate of 0.8%. From January to August, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises were 6.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, with a decline rate of 0.5% [73].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, market sentiment turned weak, and copper prices returned to a volatile trend. The high inventory of US copper indicates insufficient medium - term demand, while the end of the off - season for Shanghai copper suggests that spot demand is expected to gradually improve. Technically, after the positive impact of the interest rate cut fades, the market sentiment declines, and copper prices may show a short - term volatile trend [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On September 14, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid. With the Fed's imminent interest rate cut, market sentiment was generally optimistic at first, but then declined. The US dollar rebounded slightly on Friday, and most non - ferrous metals fell in the night session after a sharp rise on Friday. After China's September LPR remained unchanged and no new policies were announced at the financial system press conference, market optimism declined. The RMB rose slightly and the US dollar fell slightly, causing non - ferrous metals to rise and then fall. Shanghai copper rose, London copper fell, international copper rose, and domestic spot copper rose [1] Price and Basis Data - Today, Shanghai copper closed at 80,160, and the spot price was 80,310. The spot was at a premium of 150 points over the futures. The spot basis premium dropped to 60 points, and spot trading improved. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 65 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. The US copper inventory continued to rise significantly this week, the London copper inventory decreased, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to 59.5 US dollars, indicating improved domestic spot demand before the holiday. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 8.01, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 119 points, with the external price ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - Today, London copper fell slightly and traded around 9,980 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly after rising and then falling, closing at 80,160, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai copper increased slightly while the open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2] Market Indicator Monitoring - From September 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1019 - 7.1191, the spot premium/discount (yuan/ton) ranged from 80 - 470, the Yangshan copper premium (US dollars/ton) increased from 53.5 to 59.5, the LME copper - futures - spot spread was between - 59 and - 71, and the main contract London - Shanghai ratio fluctuated between 7.97 - 8.09 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report The market sentiment is optimistic, and copper prices are trending strongly. With the Fed's expected interest rate cut and positive domestic sentiment, the copper market is likely to be volatile and strong in the near term. However, there are issues such as high US copper inventories and insufficient medium - term demand, and poor spot demand for Shanghai copper during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Information Market Situation - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, increasing trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment, and sharp increases in gold, silver, and some non - ferrous metals including copper and nickel. The Fed's independence is questioned, and a rate cut is likely on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall [1] - Domestic major events are unfolding, with an optimistic market sentiment. Gold, silver, and most non - ferrous metals are rising. Shanghai copper, LME copper, and domestic spot copper are all up [1] Price and Basis - Shanghai copper closed at 79,780, and the spot price was 80,090, with an intraday high - then - low movement and a spot premium of 310 points. The spot basis premium rose to 235 points, but spot trading was poor [1] - The LME spot discount slightly widened to - 80 US dollars this week, indicating general foreign spot demand [1] Inventory - US copper and LME copper inventories continued to rise this week, while Shanghai copper inventory decreased slightly, suggesting general spot demand [1] Exchange Rate and Premium - The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Yangshan copper premium slightly increased to 56.5 US dollars, indicating a slight improvement in domestic spot demand [1] Ratio - The LME - Shanghai copper ratio dropped to 8.04, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper slightly increased to 213 points, with the foreign ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - LME copper rose slightly, trading around 9,935 US dollars. Shanghai copper opened and closed higher, with a strong technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper increased, showing an optimistic market sentiment [2] Supply - Demand Situation - US copper inventories are extremely high, with insufficient medium - term demand. Spot demand for Shanghai copper is poor during the off - season [2] 4. Copper Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (US dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 26 | 7.1533 | 630 | 55 | | - 78 | 8.09 | | Aug 27 | 7.1523 | 440 | 55 | | - 85 | 8.08 | | Aug 28 | 7.1203 | 290 | 56.5 | | - 90 | 8.10 | | Aug 29 | 7.1223 | 60 | 56.5 | | - 83 | 8.06 | | Sep 1 | 7.1296 | 310 | 56.5 | | - 80 | 8.04 | [3]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, trade frictions, and inventory changes. Short - term aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate, and future volatility may increase [1][2] Directory Summaries Macroeconomic and Market Environment - The US court declared Trump's tariff policy illegal, intensifying trade frictions between the US, Europe, and China, leading to rising risk - aversion sentiment and surges in gold and silver prices. The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, with a high probability of a rate cut on the 17th, causing the US dollar to fall. In China, major events are unfolding, and market sentiment is optimistic [1] Aluminum Market Conditions - Aluminum spot demand is insufficient, resulting in declines in Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and spot aluminum prices. This week, Shanghai aluminum fell, and the spot changed to a discount of - 30 yuan. After today's decline, spot trading improved slightly [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly this week, and LME spot inventories also rose, with a LME spot premium of 3 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose sharply this week, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.93 [1] Technical and Market Sentiment - Crude oil rose slightly today, while LME aluminum fell slightly, trading around $2612. Shanghai aluminum also fell slightly, closing at 20645, with a neutral technical pattern. Shanghai aluminum's trading volume increased while its open interest decreased, indicating cautious market sentiment [2] Market Trends and Influencing Factors - The anti - involution hype in the alumina market has significantly cooled down, and this round of speculation may end. Currently in the off - season, spot demand is insufficient. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a significant impact on the market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week (August 25 - August 29), the domestic oil and fat futures prices declined overall, with the palm oil main contract dropping 2.8% and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil main contracts falling over 1%. Spot prices were under pressure. Palm oil may experience shock and correction; soybean oil will have short - term shock adjustment; rapeseed oil will have short - term shock [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Observation Supply - Palm oil: According to MPOA, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03%. SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, the operating rate was 68.18%, and the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, and the production decreased with the reduction of rapeseed crushing volume [5] Demand - Palm oil: As of August 29, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key national oil mills this week was 7,864 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,298 tons, or 41.28%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the domestic soybean oil trading volume was 168,800 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34.37%. - Rapeseed oil: As of August 29, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 19,450 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27 tons [5] Inventory - Palm oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, or 4.8%. - Soybean oil: As of August 29, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. - Rapeseed oil: The rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65% [5] 2. Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the FOB price of 24 - degree Malaysian palm oil was $1,087.5 per ton; the import CIF price was $1,112 per ton, a week - on - week decrease of $17 per ton; the import cost price was 9,479 yuan per ton; the hedging profit was - 103 yuan per ton [6] 3. Overseas Oil and Fat Information - Malaysian palm oil: From August 1 - 25, the export volume increased by 10.9% compared with the same period last month. The Malaysian government is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the 5% sales and service tax. The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff, but no timetable has been set. - Brazilian biodiesel: Due to the increase in the blending ratio, the biodiesel demand in Brazil in 2025 has been adjusted from 9.6 million cubic meters to 9.9 million cubic meters, and then slightly adjusted down to 9.8 million cubic meters, still an 8.9% increase compared with 2024. - Canadian rapeseed: As of the week of August 17, the export volume decreased by 64.34% week - on - week to 90,800 tons. From August 1 - 17, 2025, the export volume was 355,900 tons, a 46.16% decrease compared with the same period last year. As of August 17, the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [8][9] 4. Market Review Palm oil - The SPPOMA data showed that from August 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month. The export in August increased month - on - month. The US agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil from the 19% tariff. Indian festival stocking and Indonesian biodiesel policy support demand. On Friday, the weakening of international oil and fat and crude oil prices dragged down domestic oils and fats, leading to shock and correction [11] Soybean oil - The US EPA's exemption decision for small refineries caused the US soybean oil price to fall. Domestic oil mills maintained a high operating rate, with high - level production and increasing inventory pressure. However, the start of the school year and the Mid - Autumn Festival are expected to relieve the inventory pressure. China has not purchased US soybeans yet, and attention should be paid to China - US trade negotiations. Short - term shock adjustment is expected [11] Rapeseed oil - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is expected to reduce imports. China is purchasing Australian new - crop rapeseed, which is expected to be shipped from November to December. Domestic rapeseed oil production is at a low level, and the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, still under pressure. Attention should be paid to China - Canada relations, and short - term shock is expected [12] 5. Palm Oil Data Weekly Tracking Production and Inventory in Malaysia - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.09%, and the inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%, at a high level year - on - year [16] Exports in Malaysia - According to MPOB, the Malaysian palm oil export volume in July was 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.82%. SGS data showed that from August 1 - 20, the export volume was 667,278 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37.1%. From August 1 - 25, ITS and Amspec data showed a month - on - month increase of 10.9% and 16.4% respectively [19] Domestic Palm Oil Import and Inventory - In July 2025, the palm oil import volume was 180,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48.57%, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 1.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. As of August 29, the domestic palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons, at a high level within the year [25][26] Domestic Palm Oil Consumption - In July, the domestic palm oil consumption was 207,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,600 tons [27] Import Cost and Profit - As of August 29, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 24 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 54 yuan per ton [22] 6. Soybean Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the soybean oil production was 460,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,500 tons, at a high level year - on - year. The commercial inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons, or 4.45%. In July, the export volume was 34,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,700 tons [31][32][33] 7. Rapeseed Oil Data Weekly Tracking - As of August 29, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 18,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons, at a relatively low level year - on - year. The inventory was 658,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons, at a high level year - on - year [36]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The lead market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with relatively high domestic inventories. Lead prices are in a dilemma and may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand during the back - to - school season and the production dynamics of secondary lead [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In June 2025, China's lead ore imports were 118,026 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.54%, ending a two - month decline and reaching a five - year high. The domestic and foreign lead concentrate supply is tightening, and processing fees are falling. In August, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 600 yuan/ton, a monthly decline of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 70 - - 50 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decline of 15 US dollars [2]. Supply - In July, the national electrolytic lead output was 323,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.43%; the secondary lead output was 253,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 3.13%. The supply of primary lead was relatively stable last week, with little change in the operating rate. Some refineries in North China will conduct maintenance at the end of August, and the crude lead department of enterprises in Central China is expected to shut down at the end of the third quarter. The supply of lead concentrate raw materials and maintenance plans will limit production capacity release. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead decreased slightly. The production rhythm in Anhui remained unchanged, while production in other regions was slightly adjusted due to raw material supply. The shortage of waste battery raw materials has not been alleviated, and secondary lead enterprises are suffering large losses, with limited resumption of production and new project increments. Recently, the internal and external price ratio has fluctuated, and lead ingot imports have maintained a small loss [3]. Consumption - The operating rate of large enterprises remains at 70% - 75%. The operating rate of large battery factories in Anhui is stable at 70% - 75%, with a finished product inventory of 25 - 30 days, which has slightly decreased compared with July but is still at a historical high. The operating rate of small and medium - sized enterprises is generally 65% - 75%, with an inventory of 22 - 25 days. Some enterprises promote sales to reduce inventory, but terminal digestion is slow. Overall, the traditional consumption peak season has not appeared, the demand for electric bicycle batteries is weak, enterprises produce based on orders, the upward movement of wholesale prices is blocked, the inventory of dealers has reached a historical high, and terminal consumption is sluggish [3]. Spot - As of the week ending August 15, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month basis declined. The LME lead spot remained at a deep discount, with a discount of - 43.34 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory - As of the week ending August 15, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 7,275 tons to 261,100 tons, continuing to decline from a high level and currently at an absolute high level in the past five years; the weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 2,510 tons to 64,800 tons. As of August 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations decreased slightly to 65,800 tons but was at a relatively high level in the past three years [4].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a USDA monthly supply and demand data tracking for August 2025, focusing on cotton, soybeans, and corn, prepared by the Agricultural Products Division of Holly Futures [1] Group 2: Cotton Supply and Demand Global - Beginning stocks are 75.05 million bales, production is 116.62 million bales, imports are 43.58 million bales, consumption is 117.99 million bales, exports are 43.59 million bales, and ending stocks are 73.91 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.73 million bales, production by 1.8 million bales, imports by 1.1 million bales, consumption by 0.13 million bales, exports by 1.1 million bales, and ending stocks by 3.41 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 3.04 million bales, production decreased by 1.48 million bales, imports increased by 2.07 million bales, consumption increased by 1.42 million bales, exports increased by 1.7 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.54 million bales [3] China - Beginning stocks are 35.79 million bales, production is 31.5 million bales, imports are 5.3 million bales, consumption is 37.5 million bales, exports are 0.08 million bales, and ending stocks are 35.02 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 1.05 million bales, production increased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.5 million bales, consumption increased by 1 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 2.05 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 0.925 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports increased by 0.15 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.775 million bales [3] United States - Beginning stocks are 4 million bales, production is 13.21 million bales, imports are 0.01 million bales, consumption is 1.7 million bales, exports are 12 million bales, and ending stocks are 3.6 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.1 million bales, production decreased by 1.39 million bales, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports decreased by 0.5 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 1 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.85 million bales, production decreased by 1.199 million bales, imports increased by 0.002 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.063 million bales, exports increased by 0.1 million bales, and ending stocks decreased by 0.4 million bales [3] India - Beginning stocks are 9.85 million bales, production is 23.5 million bales, imports are 2.9 million bales, consumption is 25 million bales, exports are 1 million bales, and ending stocks are 10.25 million bales. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.1 million bales, production remained unchanged, imports decreased by 0.1 million bales, consumption decreased by 0.5 million bales, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks increased by 0.5 million bales. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.55 million bales, production decreased by 0.5 million bales, imports decreased by 0.05 million bales, consumption increased by 0.5 million bales, exports decreased by 0.4 million bales, and ending stocks increased by 0.4 million bales [3] Group 3: Soybean Supply and Demand - The soybean data is bullish. US soybean production and ending stocks are decreased due to the decrease in beginning stocks. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are slightly decreased [4] Global - Beginning stocks are 125.19 million tons, production is 426.39 million tons, imports are 185.86 million tons, crushing is 367.71 million tons, consumption is 425.1 million tons, exports are 187.44 million tons, and ending stocks are 124.9 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 0.06%, production decreased by 0.30%, imports decreased by 0.11%, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.02%, exports decreased by 0.10%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.93%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 8.57%, production increased by 0.57%, imports increased by 4.22%, crushing increased by 3.68%, consumption increased by 3.51%, exports increased by 3.13%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] United States - Beginning stocks are 8.985 million tons, production is 116.815 million tons, imports are 0.544 million tons, crushing is 69.127 million tons, consumption is 72.052 million tons, exports are 46.402 million tons, and ending stocks are 7.89 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 5.67%, production decreased by 0.98%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption decreased by 0.10%, exports decreased by 2.30%, and ending stocks decreased by 6.52%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 3.58%, production decreased by 1.70%, imports decreased by 20.00%, crushing increased by 4.53%, consumption increased by 4.69%, exports decreased by 9.07%, and ending stocks decreased by 12.19% [4] China - Beginning stocks are 43.48 million tons, production is 21 million tons, imports are 112 million tons, crushing is 108 million tons, consumption is 133 million tons, exports are 0.1 million tons, and ending stocks are 43.38 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 0.39%, production increased by 1.69%, imports increased by 5.16%, crushing increased by 4.85%, consumption increased by 4.81%, exports increased by 25.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.23% [4] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 36.111 million tons, production is 175 million tons, imports are 0.15 million tons, crushing is 58 million tons, consumption is 62.3 million tons, exports are 112 million tons, and ending stocks are 36.961 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 21.34%, production increased by 3.55%, imports decreased by 72.73%, crushing increased by 1.75%, consumption increased by 1.96%, exports increased by 9.70%, and ending stocks increased by 2.35% [4] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 25.247 million tons, production is 48.5 million tons, imports are 7.2 million tons, crushing is 43 million tons, consumption is 50.5 million tons, exports are 5.8 million tons, and ending stocks are 24.647 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 2.02%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports increased by 16.00%, and ending stocks decreased by 1.20%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 4.99%, production decreased by 4.72%, imports increased by 5.88%, crushing increased by 0.94%, consumption increased by 0.20%, exports decreased by 4.92%, and ending stocks decreased by 2.38% [4] Paraguay - Beginning stocks are 0.431 million tons, production is 11 million tons, imports are 0.02 million tons, crushing is 3.1 million tons, consumption is 3.3 million tons, exports are 7.7 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.451 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 50.70%, production increased by 7.84%, imports remained unchanged, crushing remained unchanged, consumption increased by 0.76%, exports increased by 13.24%, and ending stocks increased by 4.64% [4] Group 4: Corn Supply and Demand - The corn data is bearish. US corn production and ending stocks are significantly increased. The production of Brazil and Argentina in South America remains unchanged, and the global ending stocks are increased [5] Global - Beginning stocks are 283.11 million tons, production is 1288.58 million tons, imports are 192.16 million tons, consumption is 1289.15 million tons, exports are 200.86 million tons, and ending stocks are 282.54 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.38%, production increased by 1.97%, imports increased by 2.34%, consumption increased by 1.05%, exports increased by 2.58%, and ending stocks increased by 3.84%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 10.33%, production increased by 5.10%, imports increased by 4.66%, consumption increased by 2.43%, exports increased by 3.73%, and ending stocks decreased by 0.20% [5] United States - Beginning stocks are 33.152 million tons, production is 425.257 million tons, imports are 0.635 million tons, consumption is 332.247 million tons, exports are 73.028 million tons, and ending stocks are 53.769 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 2.61%, production increased by 6.60%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.71%, exports increased by 7.48%, and ending stocks increased by 27.51%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 25.99%, production increased by 12.61%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 4.39%, exports increased by 1.95%, and ending stocks increased by 62.19% [5] China - Beginning stocks are 194.183 million tons, production is 295 million tons, imports are 10 million tons, consumption is 321 million tons, exports are 0.02 million tons, and ending stocks are 178.163 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks decreased by 0.51%, production remained unchanged, imports remained unchanged, consumption remained unchanged, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 0.56%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 8.09%, production increased by 0.03%, imports increased by 150.00%, consumption increased by 1.58%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 8.25% [5] Brazil - Beginning stocks are 7.988 million tons, production is 131 million tons, imports are 1.6 million tons, consumption is 94 million tons, exports are 43 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.588 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks decreased by 5.89%, production decreased by 0.76%, imports increased by 6.67%, consumption increased by 3.30%, exports remained unchanged, and ending stocks decreased by 55.08% [5] Argentina - Beginning stocks are 2.783 million tons, production is 53 million tons, imports are 0.005 million tons, consumption is 15.6 million tons, exports are 37 million tons, and ending stocks are 3.188 million tons. Month - on - month, all indicators remained unchanged. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 12.31%, production increased by 6.00%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 2.63%, exports increased by 7.25%, and ending stocks increased by 14.55% [5] Ukraine - Beginning stocks are 0.762 million tons, production is 32 million tons, imports are 0.01 million tons, consumption is 6.325 million tons, exports are 25.5 million tons, and ending stocks are 0.947 million tons. Month - on - month, beginning stocks increased by 145.16%, production increased by 4.92%, imports remained unchanged, consumption increased by 1.61%, exports increased by 6.25%, and ending stocks increased by 58.33%. Year - on - year, beginning stocks increased by 18.69%, production increased by 19.40%, imports decreased by 50.00%, consumption increased by 10.96%, exports increased by 21.43%, and ending stocks increased by 24.28% [5]