Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Platinum futures prices have risen continuously, with investment funds flowing in as one of the core driving forces. The rotation logic of funds seeking "value depressions" after the sharp rise of gold and silver, combined with the supply - demand gap, has led to the simultaneous strengthening of investment and jewelry demand, ultimately amplifying price elasticity [2] - The price of platinum is significantly undervalued relative to gold. After the continuous sharp rise of gold and silver, funds have turned to low - valued varieties, promoting the valuation repair of platinum. High gold prices have also prompted consumers to turn to more cost - effective platinum, driving the recovery of retail demand [2] - The supply - end gap of platinum persists. In 2025, affected by power shortages in South Africa, the mining operation rate decreased by 5 percentage points compared to last year. With factors such as rising mining costs due to ore body aging and extreme rainfall affecting transportation, the mineral supply decreased by 3% year - on - year. Although the recycled platinum supply increased by 2%, the market is still in shortage for the third consecutive year, with an expected gap of 22 - 26 tons [2] - Investment and jewelry demand have further exacerbated the tight spot market situation. With strong short - term capital inflows and the unchanged tight spot market pattern, platinum prices may remain strong [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Investment and Price Driving Factors - Investment funds flowing in are one of the core driving forces for the continuous rise of platinum futures prices, following the logic of funds seeking "value depressions" after the sharp rise of gold and silver [2] Valuation and Demand - Platinum is significantly undervalued relative to gold. After the rise of gold and silver, funds' shift to low - valued platinum promotes its valuation repair [2] - High gold prices (Shanghai gold main contract breaking through 1000 yuan/gram) have made consumers turn to more cost - effective platinum. In November, the sales volume of platinum jewelry in domestic mainstream jewelry brands increased by 12% year - on - year, and brands have increased the layout of new platinum styles, driving the recovery of retail demand [2] Supply - Side Situation - 70% of the world's platinum is produced in South Africa. In 2025, due to power shortages, the mining operation rate in South Africa decreased by 5 percentage points compared to last year. Ore body aging and extreme rainfall have led to a 3% year - on - year decline in mineral supply [2] - The recycled platinum supply increased by 2% year - on - year, but it is difficult to make up for the mineral supply gap. The market is in shortage for the third consecutive year, with an expected gap of 22 - 26 tons [2] Market Outlook - Investment and jewelry demand have further tightened the spot market. With strong short - term capital inflows and the unchanged tight spot market pattern, platinum prices may remain strong [2]

从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 研 究 院 货 金 融 市场情绪乐观，铜价再创新高 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 期 研 究 院 临近圣诞节假期，外盘交易清淡，市场波动加大。AI板块信心恢复。外媒传闻已久的中国央行信用修复政策落地， 市场情绪延续乐观。日内美元下跌，有色金属延续强势，全线上涨。铜价直线拉升大涨，再创历史新高。沪铜上涨，伦 铜上涨，国内现货铜上涨。 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报94320，现货报93930，沪铜午后拉升大涨，现货较期货贴水-390点。今日现货基差贴水 -195点，现货成交不佳。LME现货转为升水5美元，外盘现货需求较好。本周美铜库存继续大幅上升创新高，伦铜库存稳 定，沪铜库存小幅上升，现货需求一般。本周人民币汇率小幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至42美元，国内现货需求一般。铜 价伦沪比下降至7.87，国际铜较沪铜升水大幅上升至1391点，外盘比价大幅高于内盘，市场乐观。 弘 业 今日伦铜大涨再创历史新高，在11960美元附近运行。沪铜上涨再创历史新高，收于94320.沪铜成交持仓均上升， 市场情绪乐观。现货方面，国 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level and may rise with copper prices. In the short term, aluminum prices will continue to be strong, while in the medium term, they may face certain pressure due to insufficient spot demand. The market should mainly focus on whether Shanghai aluminum fluctuates with copper prices and the situation of spot demand [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs - **Market Environment**: Near the Christmas holiday, overseas trading is light, market volatility increases, the AI sector's confidence recovers, and China's central bank's credit repair policy has been implemented. The market sentiment remains optimistic. The US dollar falls, and non - ferrous metals continue to be strong, with all prices rising [3]. - **Aluminum Price Performance**: LME copper and Shanghai copper have reached record highs. Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum have all increased. Today, Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,220, and the spot price was 21,930, with a spot - to - futures discount of - 290 points. This week, Shanghai aluminum rose, and the spot discount widened to - 190 yuan. The LME spot discount slightly expanded to - 40 US dollars [3]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, China's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and the alumina inventory also decreased. The aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slightly increased, and the LME inventory slightly decreased [3]. - **Exchange Rate and Ratio**: This week, the RMB exchange rate was stable with a slight increase, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of aluminum prices significantly decreased to 7.54, indicating that the domestic market's performance was weaker than the overseas market [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Today, US crude oil rose sharply, and LME aluminum slightly increased, trading around 2959 US dollars. Shanghai aluminum slightly increased, closing at 22,220, with a strong technical form. Both trading volume and open interest of Shanghai aluminum increased, and market sentiment was optimistic [4]. - **Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring**: From December 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable, the spot premium/discount gradually deepened, the LME aluminum futures - spot price difference fluctuated, and the Shanghai - LME ratio of the main contract gradually decreased [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Weekly Report 20251222 [2] - Report Type: Steel Industry Research - Analysts: Zhou Guisheng, Duan Yiwen [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with steel prices fluctuating. The profitability of steel mills remains low, iron - water production continues to decline, and there is a transfer of iron - water production. Although the demand for rebar has rebounded, it will still weaken in the off - season. The inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory still has pressure, with the fundamentals not improving and the end - user demand remaining weak. In the short term, the market will fluctuate [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production increased, with the weekly production of major steel mills in the country reaching 181.68 tons (+2.9). Hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly, with a weekly production of 291.91 tons (-16.8) [5]. - **Demand**: Steel demand is seasonally weak. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 208.64 tons (+5.55), and that for hot - rolled coil was 298.28 tons (-13.69) [5]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory is depleting at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory is 452.54 tons (-26.96), the social inventory is 313 tons (-25.7), and the steel - mill inventory is 139.54 tons (-1.26). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 390.72 tons (-6.37), the social inventory is 307.3 tons (-5.76), and the steel - mill inventory is 83.42 tons (-0.61) [5]. - **Basis**: The basis has narrowed. The basis of the rebar main contract is 181 yuan/ton (-29), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 1 yuan/ton (-7) [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%. Iron - water production continues to decline to 226.55 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate is 78.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The EAF operating rate is 69.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5%. The EAF capacity utilization rate is 54.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [5]. 2. Price Information - As of December 19, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average price of hot - rolled coils across the country is 3296 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Raw Material Analysis - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1480 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1500 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 5), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 795 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 13) [19]. 4. Production - Related Data - Iron - water production continues to decline, while the EAF operating rate is rising. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has increased. As of December 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan is 92.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [22][32]. 5. Demand - Related Data - Rebar demand has rebounded, while hot - rolled coil demand has decreased significantly. As of December 19, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.92 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3.03 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production is 86.09 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 tons [42][48][53]. 6. Inventory Data - The inventory of main steel products has decreased. As of December 19, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.09 tons. The inventory of main steel products is 906.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.29 tons [57]. 7. Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Export**: In November, steel exports were 998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.78 tons. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 183.03 tons [69]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles. Automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [73]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing construction area was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion area was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales volume was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 11.9% [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply but remained at a low level, with a continuous decline in demand and weak purchasing sentiment. Although coking coal prices rebounded recently due to production restrictions in coal mines and import disturbances, the current supply - demand situation is still weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [4]. - The coke market has a weak supply - demand structure. Recently, due to strict environmental policies, coke enterprises have continued to cut production passively, and overall supply has decreased. However, coke enterprises still have some profits and production enthusiasm is acceptable. Demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The coke price followed the coking coal to have a phased rebound, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal trend. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market View - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.62% (+1.31%), and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 75.75 tons (+0.75). The capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was 37.68% (-0.53%), and the daily average output of clean coal was 27.29 tons (-0.63). The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remained high last week. Overall supply was relatively low [4]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16%), the available days of coking coal in 247 steel mills were 13.02 days (+0.2), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants were 13.43 days (+0.13). The demand side was mainly for rigid procurement [4]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 272.77 tons (+17.46), the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 1036.29 tons (-1.01), the steel mill inventory was 804.99 tons (+10.34), the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 327.28 tons (-5.09), and the inventory at major ports was 286.17 tons (-21.33). The coking coal mines and steel mills increased inventory, while the coal washing plants and coking plants reduced inventory [4]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants was 16 yuan/ton (-28). The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants was 72.05% (-1.11%), and the daily output of all - sample independent coking plants was 63 tons (-0.98). The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.49 tons (-0.12). Coke supply decreased, but there was still profit space and production enthusiasm was acceptable [5]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 226.55 tons (-2.65), the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (-0.16), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 11.72 days (+0.06). The demand for coke weakened [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 91.1 tons (+3.78), the inventory at major ports was 175.65 tons (-5.55), and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.73 tons (-1.55). The overall social inventory of coke slightly decreased [5]. Part Two: Macroeconomic and Real Estate Tracking - The report lists data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of national real estate, the weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the steel industry, and the manufacturing PMI, but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][15][19]. Part Three: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the purchase price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the comparison of mainstream coking coal spot prices in the country, the basis tracking of coking coal futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the daily average output and operating rate of clean coal from 523 sample coal mines, the daily average output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the daily output of hot metal and blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills across the country, the inventory of clean coal in 314 sample coal washing plants and 523 sample mines, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all - sample independent coking plants, the inventory of imported coking coal at ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in 247 steel mills and 230 independent coking plants, and the customs clearance vehicle number of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [22][27][33]. Part Four: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report includes data on the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the comparison of coke spot prices, the basis tracking of coke futures contracts (01, 05, 09 contracts), the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of coke in all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory at ports, and the available days of coke inventory in 247 steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [62][64][69].

硅年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 硅年报 2025-12 基本面上看，在当前弱势行情下，工业硅整体开工率处于低位运行，西北 大厂因成本优势开工保持较高水平，同时关注环保天气以及行业自律对开工的 影响，西南地区开工呈现季节性波动，此外一体化龙头企业也保持较高开工， 整体供应压力仍存。需求端，增量较为有限，多晶硅保持高位水平，今年以来 多晶硅企业按行业自律生产，开工率维持 35%左右低位水平，下半年因行业反 内卷价格大幅反弹，叠加西南丰水期开工有所提升，近期多晶硅平台公司落地， 摘要： 整体来看，工业硅方面，目前工业硅仍处于缓慢去化阶段，供应端维持低 位小幅增加，需求端增量有限，因此上方空间有所压制，但下方受成本支撑， 预计工业硅价格维持低位震荡。多晶硅方面，收储平台持续推进，供应水平逐 步贴合需求，光伏装机维持高位震荡，预计盘面维持高位区间震荡，关注光伏 行业反内卷推进情况。 关注：硅企行业自律、光伏收储反内卷政策 未来产能规划将控制在合理区间，而新增光伏装机则受限于新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon is in a slow destocking phase, with supply increasing slightly at a low level and limited demand growth. Its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, supported by cost at the bottom [2][44][47]. - For polysilicon, the storage platform is advancing, supply is gradually matching demand, and photovoltaic installations are maintaining high - level oscillations. The futures price is expected to stay in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the progress of the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry [2][47]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, the silicon energy market had two phases. In the first half, due to deteriorating supply - demand and intensified competition, industrial silicon and polysilicon prices dropped below the cost line. In the second half, with the anti - involution policy, prices rebounded. The industrial silicon weighted index dropped by 36.3% from January 1st to June 4th, then rebounded but faced high - inventory pressure [8]. - Polysilicon's 06 contract rose in the first three months due to pre - Spring Festival restocking and strong terminal demand. After April, it declined because of US tariffs and reduced terminal demand. In the second half, it rebounded strongly and then maintained high - level oscillations [9]. 2. Cost - side Rigid Support and Seasonal Fluctuation of Hydropower - In the first half of 2025, industrial silicon costs collapsed due to weak demand. In the second half, with the anti - involution policy and the arrival of the wet season, raw material prices recovered. Electricity cost is crucial. Xinjiang has low thermal power costs, while Yunnan and Sichuan have seasonal cost fluctuations due to hydropower [11]. 3. Significant Decline in Production and Xinjiang's Largest Production Share - In 2025, the national industrial silicon开工率 decreased significantly. From January to November, the output was 356.98 million tons, a 19.1% year - on - year decrease. Xinjiang is the largest producer, accounting for 52.7% of the national capacity. Inner Mongolia and Gansu had increased output, while Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [11][14]. - In the future, as the dry season raises electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan, production will decrease in the south and increase in the north. In 2026, industrial silicon supply will rely on industry self - discipline, and overall supply pressure remains [15]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Chain - From January to November 2025, polysilicon output was 119.48 million tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. In December, a platform company was established, planning to limit the capacity to 150 million tons [18]. - Polysilicon prices fluctuated greatly in 2025. They rose in the first quarter, declined from April to June, and rebounded in the second half due to the anti - involution policy [19]. - In 2025, from January to October, China imported 1.61 million tons of polysilicon (a 52.4% year - on - year decrease) and exported 2.02 million tons (a 33.3% year - on - year decrease). The export market is under pressure due to US sanctions [24]. - In the photovoltaic industry, although the anti - involution policy improved the situation in the second half, downstream over - capacity still exists. In 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 275GW, similar to last year, with a significant slowdown in growth. Overseas, different countries have different demand situations, and future global new installations may grow weakly [29][34]. 5. Silicone Industry Chain - In 2025, silicone prices first rebounded and then declined. After the industry's joint production - cut meeting in November, prices rose to 13,700 yuan/ton. The production profit also fluctuated accordingly [34]. - As of November 2025, the silicone DMC capacity was 344 million tons with no new capacity. Downstream demand is diversified, with traditional construction demand decreasing and emerging fields increasing. In the future, terminal demand growth is limited, and the industry plans to cut production by 30% [35]. 6. Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain - In 2025, aluminum alloy prices were relatively stable, oscillating around a high level. From January to May, the output was 15.76 billion tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicles are the main growth point for silicon - aluminum alloy demand, but future growth is limited [39]. 7. Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Exports - From January to October 2025, industrial silicon exports were 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. Overseas procurement is demand - based, and exports are expected to remain high - level oscillating next year [43].

策调整以及地缘局势变化可能导致原油供给增量不及预期，并将减缓原油市场 过剩预期以及油价下行幅度，同时若宏观环境超预期修复，将给油价带来底部 支撑，叠加油价已经连续四年下跌，2026 年的原油表现可能会比 2025 年相对 更有韧性。 原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联 ...

钢材年报 2025 年 12 月 钢材年报 2025-12 摘要： 2025 年，钢材价格先抑后扬再回落，上半年受海外征加关税和反倾销政 策影响，市场情绪受到扰动，钢价承压，在反内卷政策带动下钢价短暂反弹， 随后需求疲弱旺季不及预期再度回落。钢厂利润改善，钢厂生产仍有积极性， 铁水产量同比往年高位。螺纹钢产量累计同比往年下降，需求较疲弱，终端房 地产仍有拖累。热卷产量维持高位，两新政策拉动消费，制造业受到支撑，热 卷需求仍有韧性，库存保持高位。宏观方面，中央经济工作会议提出要继续实 施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，增强宏观政策取向 一致性和有效性。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给， 鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 | | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证号： F03131526 风险因素：供给端减产，宏观变化，需求下行 1 需求下行 | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be mainly affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the situation of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, economic data of major countries like China and the US, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a historical high, but downstream spot demand is not ideal. If speculative buying fades and medium - long - term energy prices decline, metal speculative funds may withdraw, and aluminum prices face significant pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, maintaining high profit margins, but there is high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum price generally showed an oscillating upward trend. In Q1, it was supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and China's mild economic rebound. In April, the US tariff policy caused a market slump, but then the market recovered. From September, with the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, the aluminum price continued to rise and reached a new high in December. The London aluminum price trend was basically the same as that of Shanghai aluminum, but after China取消 the aluminum export tax rebate, the supply - demand situations at home and abroad diverged, and the outer - plate aluminum price was stronger than the inner - plate price for a long time [10] 3.2 China's Macroeconomic Situation 3.2.1 China's Monetary Policy in 2025 was Moderately Loose, and the Price Level was Basically Stable - In 2025, China's domestic monetary policy was moderately loose. The M2 growth rate rose from around 7.1% at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 8.8%. The CPI index rebounded from - 0.7% year - on - year in February to 0.7%. The PPI price index remained stable throughout the year. In 2026, China may implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are favorable to non - ferrous metals [16] 3.2.2 China's Manufacturing Industry was Generally Stable in 2025 - In 2025, China's manufacturing PMI generally fluctuated around the critical point of 50. The service industry PMI was mostly above 50. In 2026, many domestic provinces and municipalities may expand the policy of issuing consumer vouchers to boost residents' consumption and ensure the stable operation of the national economy [17] 3.2.3 Fixed - asset Investment Reflected that the Economic Pressure was Still High - Since the peak in February 2021, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate has been declining. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment data was still poor. From January to November, the domestic fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, indicating insufficient market confidence and a fragile economic recovery [22] 3.3 Analysis of Key Related Industries 3.3.1 The Real Estate Industry was Gradually Stabilizing at the Bottom - From 2024 - 2025, relevant real - estate policies were continuously introduced, but the overall performance of the real - estate industry was still not ideal. From January to November, the decline in real - estate sales area and new construction area narrowed, but the completed real - estate development investment continued to weaken. Overall, the downward trend of the real - estate industry was gradually being controlled [25] 3.3.2 The Automobile Industry was Gradually Becoming a Pillar of the National Economy, with a High Growth Rate of New Energy Vehicles - From January to November, the total domestic automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and the production of new energy vehicles increased by 28.1% year - on - year. In 2026, the purchase tax of new energy vehicles will be adjusted from exemption to half - exemption. Export demand may become the main growth point, and the situation of the domestic automobile industry may become a key factor determining the supply - demand relationship of non - ferrous metals [27] 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.4.1 Global Aluminum Production Increased Slightly, with a Slight Supply Surplus - In 2025, the global energy supply became tight. The global aluminum production increased in the first half of the year and decreased in the second half. China's aluminum production trend was basically consistent with the global trend, and the year - on - year growth rate was higher than the global level. From January to October, global aluminum production increased by 0.58% year - on - year, and China's aluminum production increased by 0.88% year - on - year, with a slight supply surplus [30] 3.4.2 Policies Led to a Significant Decline in Aluminum Exports in 2025, while Imports Remained High - Due to the reduction of Russian aluminum consumption in Europe and the US, China's aluminum import and export have been booming since 2020. In 2025, aluminum imports remained high, but exports were greatly affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate. From January to October, the total aluminum imports increased by 9.38% year - on - year, and from January to November, aluminum exports decreased by 14.93% year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, aluminum exports may remain at about 500,000 tons per month [32] 3.4.3 Raw Material Prices Continued to Decline Throughout the Year and Still had Room to Fall in the Future - In 2025, aluminum raw material prices fluctuated significantly. Coal prices first decreased and then increased, caustic soda prices declined, and bauxite prices decreased after a high - level operation. In the coming year, domestic energy prices and supply are likely to remain stable, and bauxite supply will be stable. It is expected that aluminum raw material costs may further decrease, but aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom due to the domestic production capacity ceiling [33] 3.4.4 Low Inventories Supported Aluminum Prices to Some Extent - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly at the beginning of the year, decreased in the second quarter, and remained stable in the third and fourth quarters, with a slight decrease compared to the beginning of the year. The alumina inventory remained at a low level, with a small increase recently but still relatively low [35] 3.5 Macroeconomic Hot - spot Analysis 3.5.1 Policies Continued to Take Effect, and the Domestic Economy was Generally Stable - In the Central Economic Work Conference, it was emphasized that in 2026, China should implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, and expand domestic demand. In 2025, China's economy remained basically stable. In 2026, the central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which will support the spot demand for non - ferrous metals. In the future, consumption may become the most important economic support and policy focus in China [39][40][41] 3.5.2 The Economies of Europe and the US were Facing Severe Pressure, and the Fed May Continue to Promote Interest - rate Cuts after the Leadership Change - In the US, the unemployment rate rose in November 2025, and the manufacturing PMI continued to decline. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a total reduction of 75 basis points. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI also showed a downward trend. In 2026, the US tariff policy may not change much, and the Fed may enter a new interest - rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, which may drive a new round of price increases for non - ferrous metals [42][43] 3.6 Conclusion - In 2026, the aluminum price trend may be affected by the Fed's monetary policy, tariff impacts, the Russia - Ukraine negotiation situation, economic data of major countries, and spot supply and demand. Currently, aluminum prices are at a high level, but downstream demand is not good. If speculative funds withdraw and energy prices decline in the medium - long term, aluminum prices will face pressure. The alumina price has fallen below the cost line, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting industry is restricted by the production capacity ceiling, with high uncertainty in the medium - long - term industrial outlook [44][45][46]