1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract SA601 slightly increased by 0.09%. The futures price is mainly supported by cost (stable prices of thermal coal and sea salt) and continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts, rather than an improvement in the supply - demand pattern. The main contract SA601 is actively traded, with a single - day trading volume of 23.458 billion yuan and an open interest of over 1 million lots, indicating strong market trading enthusiasm. The far - month contract SA605 is at a discount of about 70 yuan/ton compared to SA601, and the monthly spread structure remains negative, reflecting the continuous market expectation of supply surplus in 2026. As of November 20, the number of registered warehouse receipts for soda ash futures is 0, and the number of valid forecasts is 4,879. The delivery expectation has not been released intensively, and the market is still dominated by speculation and hedging [3]. - The current industry is still under the triple pressure of high inventory, low demand, and weak profits, with limited upward price space. The supply side is slightly favorable, with the operating rate falling from a high level and production decreasing slightly. In terms of inventory, the weekly destocking has accelerated, achieving destocking for three consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. Although the inventory has been falling continuously, it is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the inventory days remain above 20 days. The destocking pace maintains the characteristics of "high base and slow rhythm". The rigid demand from the glass and new energy sectors supports the stable rigid consumption of heavy soda ash. Downstream procurement sentiment is cautious, with most operations being "low inventory and fast turnover", and no concentrated stockpiling has occurred. Although the price of thermal coal on the cost side has increased slightly, the decline in soda ash prices is greater, and the overall profit margin of the industry is still in a contraction range. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern. Attention should be paid to the cold - repair plan after December and the potential pull of macro - policies on the real estate chain [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract SA601 closed at 1,170 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% during the week. However, the far - month contracts are continuously at a discount, and the market sentiment is constrained by the loose supply - demand pattern. On the spot side, the price of heavy soda ash shows regional differentiation, is under pressure, and tends to be weak. The inventory continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The industry profit is under pressure, and there has been no fundamental improvement in the overall fundamentals. In the short term, equipment maintenance and inventory decline provide some support, but the expectation of new production capacity release in the long term remains, and combined with the continuous downturn in the glass industry, the demand for heavy soda ash lacks elasticity, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. The price movement may continue in a "sideways - weak, bottom - oscillating" pattern [2]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a decrease of 18,500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.50%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, compared with 84.80% last week, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous week. Recently, equipment problems in some enterprises have led to a decline in production [2]. Demand - This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous week, with one cold - repair and one hot - repair. The in - production volume of photovoltaic glass was 89,400 tons, remaining stable from the previous week. Next week, the float glass production will remain stable, and the photovoltaic glass plans to cold - repair 700 tons. The downstream demand is average, the sentiment for replenishing inventory at low prices has increased, the futures price has declined, and the trading volume has increased. Exports remain good, with exports exceeding 210,000 tons in October [2]. Inventory - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons from the previous week (+0.06%), and the inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decrease of 0.23%. The inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous week. There is a slight differentiation between light and heavy soda ash, with light soda ash being stronger and heavy soda ash being weaker [3]. Profit - In early November, the soda ash industry as a whole was still in a loss - making state, and the profit was under significant pressure. The net profits of many leading enterprises decreased significantly year - on - year, reflecting the severe overall profit environment in the industry. As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly, leading to an upward shift in cost support [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The November USDA report increased the production estimates of the US and China, which was overall bearish. With the increase in new cotton processing volume, the market's estimate of the new - season cotton production was also raised. Downstream demand was average, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in finished products, but the overall pressure was not significant. As seed cotton procurement was nearing completion, the supply pressure was becoming more evident with the concentrated listing of new cotton. It was expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures would be weak in the short term. Key factors to watch were macro - economic conditions, demand, and policies [3]. - The November USDA report did not adjust the harvested price of US cotton but raised the yield per unit, ultimately increasing the US cotton production estimate by 200,000 tons compared to September. It also increased China's cotton production estimate by 220,000 tons and Brazil's by 110,000 tons. Globally, the cotton production estimate was raised by 520,000 tons, and the ending inventory estimate was increased by 600,000 tons compared to September, showing a bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Production and Supply - As of November 13, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.3%, the delivery rate was 95.5%, the processing rate was 56%, and the sales rate was 22.8%. As of November 16, the national new cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 3.0893 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.24% [6]. - According to the USDA's weekly export report, as of the week ending September 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81%, a 4% decrease from the four - week average, and a year - on - year increase of 77% [24]. - As of 24:00 on November 17, the cotton inspection volume in the 25/26 season was about 3.1708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19.73% [42]. Cotton Market Price and Index - From November 10 to November 17, the price of the ZCE active cotton contract dropped from 13,580 yuan/ton to 13,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and the ICE active cotton contract dropped from 64.34 cents/pound to 64.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.13 cents/pound [10]. - From November 10 to November 17, the CotlookA price index dropped from 75.2 cents/pound to 74.4 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.80 cents/pound, and the Indian S - 6 spot price dropped from 52,300 rupees/candy to 51,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 400 rupees/candy [12]. - From November 10 to November 17, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarns such as Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S all decreased [14]. - From November 10 to November 17, the arrival prices of imported cotton such as US EMOT M and Brazilian M under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty all decreased [15]. Textile and Apparel Market - In October 2025, China's textile and apparel export volume was 2.2619 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Among them, textile exports decreased by 9.10% year - on - year and 5.92% month - on - month, and apparel exports decreased by 15.97% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month [4]. - Benefiting from the pre - promotion of "Double Eleven", clothing consumption showed a stable recovery trend. In October, the retail sales of textiles and apparel reached 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.6 percentage points month - on - month, significantly outperforming the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. Inventory and Related Indicators - As of this Wednesday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,314, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28 [69]. - On Tuesday of this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week. The price index of C32S yarn increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week [54][55]. - On Tuesday of this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty and 1% tariff increased week - on - week. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased week - on - week [58]. - On Tuesday of this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract widened week - on - week, and the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn showed a wider loss week - on - week [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and radiation pine inventory accumulation. The futures price continues to oscillate weakly. The supply side pressure has improved, but the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in tariffs and real estate. In the short term, logs will continue to oscillate weakly [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, both down from the previous period. In October 2025, the FOB price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [2] - Futures: As of the close on November 18, the main log contract 2601 closed at 785 yuan/cubic meter, continuing its weak oscillation [2] 2. Supply - New Zealand port shipments: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters [2] - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports: From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships or 30% week - on - week; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters or 48% week - on - week [2] - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week: From November 10 - 16, 2025, 10 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 ships or 38% week - on - week; the total arrival volume was about 315,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 214,000 cubic meters or 40% week - on - week [2] - Import volume: In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [2] 3. Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters [3] - High arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. After the arrival volume decreases in mid - November, inventory accumulation may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [3] 4. Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: From November 7 - 14, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters; among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters [3] - The national log outbound volume rebounded, especially in Shandong. The core problem is that the port arrival pressure is large, while downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, leading to increased sales pressure on traders [3] 5. Recent News and Outlook Tariffs and Imports/Exports - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, increasing the risk of relying on a single source. The anti - involution policy has an indirect impact on the log market. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial for wood product exports, but the terminal market is currently sluggish [4] - The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood from December 7, 2025. Mexico has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. Since November 10, 2025, the suspension of US log imports has been lifted, but the arrival volume will be limited in the short term [4] - Russian freight costs have increased by up to 50%, and wood prices have risen by 11% - 14%. China's demand market is currently weak [4] Trading and Delivery - Since its listing one year ago, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has increased steadily. A total of 8 futures contracts and 164 option contracts have been listed, with a combined trading volume of about 7.87 million lots, a trading value of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots [5] - The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have expired, with a total delivery of 1,412 lots, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total value of about 104 million yuan [5] Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1,044.801 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5] - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side remains weak [5] 6. Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract weakened in the second - quarter off - season and rose significantly from July to August, mainly driven by shortages of some specifications, rising FOB prices, and pre - delivery stocking demand. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [6] - In September, the 2511 contract price rose and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was average, and the futures price回调 after the holiday in October, reflecting market pessimism about downstream demand [6] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined. Currently, the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news. The log market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the PTA, MEG, and downstream polyester industries, covering their basic knowledge, production, trade, and market conditions. It highlights the high concentration of PTA and MEG production in Asia, especially in China, and the significant growth in domestic production capacity in recent years. The report also discusses the trade patterns, profit situations, and market trends of these industries [12][24][43]. 3. Summary by Directory PTA Basics - **Definition and Market Introduction**: PTA, or purified terephthalic acid, was the first chemical futures variety listed in China in December 2006. It is a raw material for polyester with end - uses mainly in textile, clothing, and soft drinks [12]. - **Storage and Transportation**: Mainly stored in packaging bags at East China's main port terminals, with storage areas along the Yangtze River, Hangzhou Bay, and Xiamen. Transportation is mainly by sea and inland waterways, with some short - distance transportation by road [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Produced from crude oil via PX, it is mainly used to produce polyester (PET). One ton of PET requires 0.855 tons of PTA and 0.332 tons of MEG. About 70% of PTA is used for polyester fibers, 24% for bottle - grade polyester, and the rest for film - grade polyester [19][20]. - **Production Capacity**: Global PTA capacity is mainly in Asia (nearly 90%), with China accounting for over 78% of Asia's capacity. As of November 2025, China's effective PTA capacity reached 9471.5 million tons [24]. - **Capacity Distribution**: Regionally concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with private enterprises being the main suppliers. Yisheng and Hengli account for 41% of the total capacity [27][28]. - **Import and Export**: China's PTA imports have decreased from 2.74 million tons in 2013 to 18,000 tons in 2024, while exports reached 4.42 million tons in 2024, mainly to other Asian regions and Russia [31]. - **Profit Situation**: From 2016 - 2019, the industry had high profits due to limited new capacity and downstream recovery. From 2020 - 2024, private large - scale refineries' concentrated production led to compressed processing fees and the elimination of some high - cost small - scale plants [36]. - **Trading Patterns**: Include long - term contracts (referencing CCF's daily average price with appropriate premiums/discounts), spot trading (futures + price - fixing), and derivative pricing methods (futures price - fixing + monthly/weekly average basis) [38]. MEG Basics - **Definition and Application**: Ethylene glycol (MEG) is an important petrochemical raw material, mainly used in polyester production. Globally, about 85% of MEG is used in polyester, while in China, over 93% is used in polyester [43]. - **Production Process**: The main synthesis routes are the ethylene route (including petroleum ethylene, ethane ethylene, and MTO ethylene methods) and the oxalate route. The ethylene method is the global mainstream, while China mainly uses the petroleum ethylene method and the coal - to - ethylene glycol oxalate method [50][51]. - **Profitability of Different Processes**: Coal - to - MEG's profit has improved significantly this year, with higher operating loads. Ethylene - based MEG has been operating below the break - even point, but losses have narrowed compared to the previous two years [54]. - **Production Capacity Development**: China's MEG production capacity has reached 30.075 million tons, with ethylene - based capacity accounting for about 64% and coal - based capacity accounting for 36% [58][62]. - **Production Distribution**: Ethylene - based plants are mainly in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, while coal - based plants are in Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia [62]. - **Import and Export**: MEG imports peaked in 2020 and have since declined. In 2024, the import dependence dropped to 25%, with the main import sources being Saudi Arabia, Canada, and the United States [65]. Downstream Polyester Basics - **PTA/MEG's Downstream Products**: The main downstream demand for PTA/MEG is polyester, which is used in textile, clothing, beverages, and film products. Filament has the largest share in polyester, followed by short - fiber and bottle - chips [69]. - **Short - Fiber Basics**: Polyester short - fiber is made from PTA and MEG. Its trade pattern is mainly from east to west and bidirectional north - south. The main production and sales areas are Jiangsu, Fujian, and Zhejiang, with transportation mainly by road, water, and rail [71][76][77]. - **Short - Fiber Industry Chain**: It is produced from crude oil via PTA and MEG, with end - uses in filling, non - woven, and spinning. In 2024, spinning accounted for 64% of direct - spun polyester short - fiber production [79]. - **Short - Fiber Production Capacity Distribution**: Concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In recent years, short - fiber exports have increased significantly, with 1.318 million tons exported in 2024, a 9.4% increase year - on - year, and 1.255 million tons exported from January - September 2025, a 31% increase year - on - year [83][88]. - **Polyester Bottle - Chips Basics**: Made from PTA and MEG, used mainly for packaging. Sales are divided into direct sales (60% - 70%) and distribution (30% - 40%) [91][102]. - **Bottle - Chips Production Capacity**: Production capacity has increased rapidly, exceeding 20 million tons at the end of 2024, almost doubling since the end of 2022 [105]. - **Bottle - Chips Demand**: Global demand has been growing steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 6.1% from 2015 - 2024. In 2024, the main downstream consumption areas were soft drinks (39%), exports (42.4%), sheet materials (15.8%), and oil bottles (2.9%) [108]. - **Bottle - Chips Export Trade**: China is the world's largest net exporter, with exports widely distributed. In 2024, the top five export destinations accounted for only 23% of total exports [112][113].

美豆大涨创新高，豆粕库存缓解 2025年11月18日 （2）国内大豆进口回落，油厂大豆到港回落。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月14日，油厂大豆到港量为182万吨，环比回落；港口大豆库存为992.6万吨，环比回落，仍 在高位。 （3）美豆大涨创近年新高。美农11月供需报告调减美豆单产及总产，期末库存调减；南美产量未调整；全球期末 库存进一步调减。美农报告数据偏多，但盘面先跌后涨。叠加中美贸易协定。美豆有望继续走高。 （4）油厂开机率回升，豆粕库存再落。油厂榨利回落，因巴豆成本高。据钢联数据：截至11月14日，油厂开机率 为57.15%，环比回升；大豆压榨量为207.76万吨，环比回升；油厂大豆库存为747.71万吨，环比回落。豆粕产量为 164.1万吨，环比回升；油厂豆粕库存为99.29万吨，环比微落；豆粕未执行合同为535.07万吨，环比回落。饲料厂 豆粕库存天数为8.23天，环比回升。 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - Due to macro - negative factors and insufficient demand, the upward movement of Shanghai Aluminum faces obstacles. Although it may continue its short - term volatile upward trend, it may face pressure in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Related Content Market Environment - The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to drop below 50%, leading to rising risk aversion and weakening of risk assets. The market is generally weak, with the US dollar rising and the RMB falling, and non - ferrous metals mostly declining [3] Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725, and the spot price was 21,630, with a spot - to - futures premium of - 95 points. This week, Shanghai Aluminum rose and then fell, with the spot premium remaining at - 20 yuan. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was stable, alumina inventory increased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly. LME inventory increased, and the LME spot premium widened to - 28 US dollars [3] Technical Analysis - Today, US crude oil tumbled, and LME Aluminum declined slightly, trading around 2,850 US dollars. Shanghai Aluminum fell, closing at 21,725, with a weakening technical pattern. Trading volume increased while open interest decreased, indicating significant market divergence [4] Market Sentiment and Outlook - After the hype of anti - involution subsided, alumina oscillated at a low level. With the easing of trade disputes, unclear situation in Russia - Ukraine, and rising energy prices, market sentiment was relatively strong. After the hype of gold and copper decreased, small metals were favored by funds. The short - term volatile upward trend of Shanghai Aluminum will continue, but it may face pressure in the medium term due to insufficient spot demand. The future focus is on whether Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate with copper prices and the spot demand situation [4] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | - 20 | - 16 | 7.54 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | - 10 | - 24 | 7.56 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 10 | - 28 | 7.58 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | - 20 | - 26 | 7.60 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | - 20 | - 28 | 7.65 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is expected to drop below 50%, risk aversion continues to rise, and risk assets are generally weak. Macro - level negative factors have led to a weak market trend today, with copper prices under pressure and falling [3]. - The uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has increased, while China's monetary policy tends to be loose, resulting in large short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The Indonesian mines are gradually resuming production, but spot demand remains sluggish, inventories are high, and there may be some pressure on the spot side in the future. There are contradictions and high uncertainties between the medium - term macro - expectations and spot demand [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - Due to macro - level negative impacts, the market is weak today. The US dollar rises and the RMB falls, and non - ferrous metals generally decline. Both Shanghai copper and LME copper fall, as well as domestic spot copper [3]. - Shanghai copper closes at 86,450 and spot copper at 86,620. The spot is at a premium of 170 points over the futures. The spot basis premium rises to 105 points, and spot trading is poor. The LME spot turns to a premium of $4 this week, indicating improved foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continue to rise to a new high this week, LME copper inventories are stable, and Shanghai copper inventories rise slightly, showing weak spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, the Yangshan copper premium drops to a recent low of $32, indicating poor domestic spot demand. The LME - Shanghai ratio of copper prices rises to 8.01, and international copper is at a premium of 537 points over Shanghai copper, with the foreign ratio higher than the domestic one [3]. Technical Analysis - Today, LME copper falls slightly and trades around $10,825. Shanghai copper hits a low and then rebounds, falling slightly and closing at 86,450. The technical pattern is weak. The trading volume of Shanghai copper rises while the open interest falls, indicating a large market divergence [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount (yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract LME - Shanghai Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | November 11 | 7.1224 | 380 | 33.5 | - 15 | 8 | | November 12 | 7.1124 | 190 | 33.5 | - 21 | 8.02 | | November 13 | 7.0971 | - 100 | 33.5 | - 14 | 8 | | November 14 | 7.0998 | 240 | 33.5 | - 6 | 7.99 | | November 17 | 7.1058 | 170 | 32 | 4 | 8.01 | [5]

USDA月度供需 数据跟踪 2025年11月 弘业期货农产品事业部 | | | | | USDA大豆供需数据跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：（百万吨） | | 期初 | 产量 | 进口 | 压榨 | 消费 | 出口 | 期末 | | 全 | | 123.34 | 421.75 | 186.41 | 364.98 | 421.54 | 187.97 | 121.99 | | 球 | 环比 | -0.19% | -0.97% | 0.11% | -0.45% | -0.55% | 0.10% | -1.61% | | | 同比 | 7.14% | -1.26% | 4.06% | 2.01% | 2.06% | 1.59% | -1.09% | | 美 | | 8.614 | 115.751 | 0.544 | 69.536 | 72.527 | 44.497 | 7.885 | | 国 | 环比 | -4.12% | -1.11% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.01% | -2.97% ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China. New - grain sales are relatively fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract continued to rebound. The spot price increased, with the FOB price of corn in Bayuquan rising from 2,165 yuan/ton to around 2,205 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn in Shekou Port rising from 2,250 yuan/ton to around 2,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The corn basis first weakened and then strengthened, with the futures slightly at a discount. The main starch 2601 contract continued to rebound. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu remained stable at around 2,800 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated weakly [4]. Supply Side - Farmers are somewhat reluctant to sell, but new - grain sales are still fast. The national corn output increased to 300 million tons, 500,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Due to the differentiation of grain quality in North China and other regions, the market mostly stocks up in Northeast China. The price increase in the Northeast region has made farmers reluctant to sell, and it is easier to store after the temperature drops. As of November 13, the national new - grain sales progress was 24%, 1% faster than the same period last year. Among them, the sales progress in the Northeast region was 19%, 2% faster than the same period last year; in North China, it was 23%, the same as the same period last year; in Northwest China, it was 46%, 3% faster than the same period last year. At the new - grain listing node, imported corn was auctioned again, and Sinograin entered the market to purchase for rotation, which affected the new - grain purchase and sales rhythm [4]. Demand and Inventory - After the corn price increase, downstream enterprises slowed down their procurement. As of November 7, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 1.071 million tons and continued to rise, while the weekly shipping volume was 582,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 454,000 tons, and the foreign - trade corn inventory was 412,000 tons, both rising from the previous week. As of November 14, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 273,500 tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, an increase from the previous week [5]. Substitute and Import - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain at a low level. The price difference between wheat and corn remains above 200 yuan, so wheat does not have a substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. However, Sino - US trade is improving, and mutual tax cuts have been implemented, with a basic tariff of 10% still retained. There is a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn due to the auction of imported corn in the domestic market [5]. External Market - The US corn in the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The US government will end the shutdown, and the US Department of Agriculture will release the latest supply - demand report. The US corn harvest may be basically over, with high production pressure. Attention should be paid to the possibility of China importing US corn [5]. Downstream Demand - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is good. Pig prices are low, and pig farming continues to incur losses. As of November 14, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 205.64 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 114.81 yuan per head. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a decrease of 30,000 heads from the previous month, far from the regulatory target. Market pressure on pigs for slaughter and secondary fattening increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase from the same period last year. In the short term, the inventory is difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg prices have fallen again, and egg - chicken farming continues to incur losses. The sales volume of chicks has decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. In October, the inventory of laying hens decreased slightly. Feed demand remains strong. Deep - processing enterprises have good demand. Starch - processing enterprises continue to make profits, and the operating rate is rising. As of November 14, the operating rate of starch - processing enterprises was 63.48% and continued to rise. Starch inventory remains at a high level. Alcohol - processing enterprises are suffering large losses, and the operating rate remains high at 67.29%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises is relatively strong [6].

Report Title - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market Weekly Report: Blending Logic Boosts Aromatic Hydrocarbon Prices (PX, Pure Benzene, Styrene) [1] Report Date and Author - Date: November 14, 2025 - Author: Jiang Zhou Xilin - Institution: Hongye Futures, Financial Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - PX market: Despite a strong supply-demand situation due to continuous inventory reduction, the peak season expectation has failed. However, with the improvement of downstream demand and supply tightening in November, PX processing fees and absolute prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - Pure benzene market: Affected by new production capacity and overseas supply surplus, the price is under pressure. But due to the relatively low current price and downstream demand support, the short - term decline space is limited. The market still expects inventory accumulation and supply - demand contradictions remain [4]. - Styrene market: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is still poor. The weak fundamentals are difficult to change, and it will fluctuate at a low level [5][6]. Summary by Directory PX Market - **Cost**: International oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The price of naphtha is $569, and the PX CFR price is $825. Sinopec's PX listed price in November is slightly increased to 6,800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: Domestic PX production is 758,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46%. Some plants are under maintenance [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.37% [3]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The PX market is expected to have a strong performance in the medium - long term if there are no unexpected geopolitical conflicts [3]. Pure Benzene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The pure benzene futures contract 2603 rebounded slightly this week. The basis between the futures and spot widened. The arbitrage window from Shandong to East China is partially open [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Weekly production is 454,300 tons, an increase of 3.77%. The capacity utilization rate is 77.98%, an increase of 2.83%. The supply exceeds demand, and many downstream styrene plants are under maintenance [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the commercial inventory in Jiangsu ports is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.61% and a year - on - year increase of 7.62%. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the next period [4]. - **Profit**: Among the five major downstream products of pure benzene, styrene, phenol, caprolactam, and adipic acid are in loss, while aniline still has profit and it slightly expands [4]. - **Summary and Outlook**: The short - term decline space is limited, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to change. The market is affected by factors such as US supply reduction and gasoline price increase [4]. Styrene Market - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene futures contract rebounded this week. The spot price in East China is 6,405 yuan/ton, a decrease from the previous level [5]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants in China is - 451 yuan/ton, with a loss increase of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - **Industrial Chain Capacity Utilization**: The production of styrene plants in China is 344,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.45%. The capacity utilization rate is 69.25%, a week - on - week increase of 2.31% [5]. - **Downstream**: The output of ABS, PS, and SBR increased, while the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased. The overall demand for styrene slightly decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the inventory in Jiangsu ports is 174,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. The commodity inventory is 101,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.29% [5]. - **Summary and Outlook**: Although there has been a recent rebound, the device profit is poor, and the weak fundamentals are difficult to change [5][6].