Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the recent Israel-Iran conflict, compares it with the two conflicts in 2024, and points out that the intensity of this round of conflict may exceed that of 2024. It also proposes three possible development paths and corresponding coping strategies [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Geopolitical Situation Review - On June 9, Iran rejected the US "Iran Nuclear Deal" and planned to submit its own proposal to the US through Oman [12]. - On June 10, the US and Iran were expected to hold the sixth - round of negotiations over the weekend. Iran warned that if attacked by Israel, it would target Israel's secret nuclear facilities [13]. - On June 11, Trump expressed reduced confidence in reaching the Iran Nuclear Deal. Iran's defense minister said Iran would attack US bases in the Middle East if the negotiation failed [14][15]. - On June 12, US non - essential personnel and their families in Kuwait, Bahrain and the US embassy in Iraq prepared to evacuate. The possibility of the sixth - round of US - Iran negotiations decreased [15]. - On June 13, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, named "Lion's Strength", and declared a national special emergency. Iran reported possible casualties of important leaders and an attack on its nuclear facility [17]. Past Israel - Iran Conflicts Reference - In April 2024, both sides carried out mutual air strikes but avoided attacking nuclear facilities. The oil price rose about 6% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [20][21]. - In October 2024, there were limited air strikes, and both sides remained relatively restrained. The oil price rose about 13% during the conflict and then quickly gave back the risk premium [26][27]. Future Development Possibilities and Coping Strategies - **Conflict Intensity Comparison**: This conflict may be more intense than those in 2024 due to possible casualties of important Iranian leaders, direct attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, and the unclear US attitude. The Brent crude oil has risen about 18% from the low to the high in the past three trading days [28]. - **Possible Development Paths**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: If Iran responds with restraint and the US pressures Israel again, the oil price may have reached its peak [28]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: If Iran retaliates against Israel's nuclear facilities and the US supports Israel's counter - attack, the oil price may reach the range of $85 - 90 [28]. - A full - scale war: If Iran's retaliation is severe and involves Israel and the US, and the US loses control of the situation, the oil price may rise above $100 in the short term [28]. - **Coping Strategies**: - The conflict intensity is equivalent to that in 2024: Close all double - bought options and consider selling call options [33]. - The conflict intensity exceeds that in 2024 but is lower than a full - scale war: Partially close double - bought options and retain the remaining part to monitor the intensity [33]. - A full - scale war: Close put options, increase call option positions or sell put options [33]. - Key observation points include Iran's counter - attack time and intensity, whether the US - Iran negotiation will continue over the weekend, and the US stance [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of pre - export rush, and there are disruptions in overseas copper mine production. However, the traditional off - season has weakened downstream demand, causing potential adjustments in Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions when prices rise. Attention should be paid to support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,610, a decrease of 680 from the previous day; trading volume was 85,090 lots, an increase of 20,954 lots; open interest was 203,273 lots, a decrease of 6,250 lots; inventory was 32,785 tons, a decrease of 588 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,075, a decrease of 235 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 465, an increase of 445; the Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was 60, a decrease of 30; the North China electrolytic copper spot premium was - 150, an increase of 10; the East China electrolytic copper spot premium was - 20, a decrease of 5. The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 290, an increase of 210; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 160, an increase of 70; the spread between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 180, a decrease of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on June 12, 2025, was 9,690.51, an increase of 43.5. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 116,850. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 85.51, an increase of 30.02; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 101.55, an increase of 10.35. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.1121, a decrease of 0.11 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on June 12, 2025, was 4.843, a decrease of 0.051. The total inventory was 193,954 tons, an increase of 3,019 tons [2] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - The number of new non - farm employment in the US in a certain month was 139,000, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The annual average hourly wage rate was 3.8%, higher than expected and the previous value. The consumer - end inflation rate in the US in May was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not triggered a rebound in consumer - end inflation, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Ivanhoe Mines' Kanoa - Kakula copper mine's 2025 copper production guidance decreased by 28% to 37 - 420,000 tons due to an earthquake. Multiple mines had production issues, including mechanical failures at Canadian Teds Resources' mines and higher export taxes for Indonesian Freeport. Some mines had planned expansions, such as the second - phase of Tongling Nonferrous' Miraado copper mine and J巨龙 Copper's second - phase expansion. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume may increase or decrease in June, and the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume may decrease. Some smelters had production disruptions, while others were expected to resume or start production, which may affect the domestic electrolytic copper production and import volume in June [2][3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) decreased (increased) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (increased). The production capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of China's copper foil decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days decreased. Due to the easing of mutual tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises may change in June [3]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250613: 原油大涨,甲醇短期或仍有反弹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/6/12 | 2025/6/11 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2353.00 | 2345.00 | 8.00 | 0.34% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2294.00 | 2289.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2290.00 | 2282.00 | 8.00 | 0.35% | | | | | 元/吨 | 2375.00 | 2361.50 | 13.50 | 0.57% | | | | 太仓 | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2175.00 | 2167.50 | 7.50 | 0.35% | | 期现价格 | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2325.0 ...

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | | 铅锌日评20250613：沪铅下方支撑较强；沪锌反弹空间有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/13 | | 指标 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,700.00 | | | 0.45% | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,890.00 | | | 0.27% | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -190.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -25.00 | | | 30.00 - | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -27.67 | | | 0.98 | | | | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -66.30 | | | -0.20 | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 | | | 15.00 | | | | | 铅 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 ...

| 投资集略 | 1273001233001236000元環短且生产利润为负近 历 负 。印尼山EP 高水第一体化产硫酸湯月度生产成本为11500 21000元 膜和生产利润为正 使中国硫酸原归生产料润为正 使中国硫酸棉母生产1进口量或环比增加减少; 侧果金周20日 | | --- | --- | | | 超暂停出口4个月并考虑实施出口面额、使中国在中国周边上要较上周下降目其中却能消息使上市体为20100元吨和润滑负。引导电解法面凝锥宽化铝似量化压压AF产量或机比增加减少增加增加。使 | | | 中国成题的月生产量或称忆减少，中国进口矿价格震荡超降免到效中国酒口最优矿政策创造，库存量较上同减少减少、减少，中国电解二届48活厨房合格生产成本为1.89-1.0万吨目录的为证，使中国电 | | | 牌，氧化温强塑型6月生产出口 量环比较少增加、减少，中国强腾的月生产量或队比增加，中国三面测的月度加工费项比有所下降。外采碳带一厂箱钢体有原生产动体为0300元吨目生产利润为0.00元吨目生产利润为0.0 | | | 三方前列体内生中量或坏比较少，中国模擬法及CM三元期限体存出且量或不比增加；中国三元材料目度加工重环化官 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250613: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 6月12日 6月11日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (絕对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1635.00 1740.00 1600.00 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | -12.00 -10.00 -20.00 | -0.73% -0.57% -1.23% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1664.00 | 1685.00 | -21.00 | -1.25% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1646.00 | 1667.00 | -21.00 | -1.26% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1750.00 | -20.00 | -1.14% | ...

| 元用用具 | 贵金属日评20250613: 关税仍未显著推升美国生产通胀,以色列空袭伊朗牵动地缘风险 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-11 | 2025-06-06 | 收盘价 | 777.54 | 783. 24 | 1.92 | 785. 16 | 7.62 | | | | | 成交重 | 165488.00 | 272195.00 | 52, 710. 00 | 218198.00 | -53, 997.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 172351.00 | 168745.00 | 178314.00 | -5, 963.00 | 3, 606. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17847.00 | 17847.00 | 17817.00 | 30. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space may be limited. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see, and for polysilicon, the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 1.39% to 7,455 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, the confidence in the future market is lacking, the overall wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the willingness to resume production is insufficient. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand was weak, and the actual transaction price declined. The domestic monomer enterprises still in production had mixed start - up rates, and the overall start - up rate decreased. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices was insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material dropped 1.41% to 35 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material dropped 1.49% to 33 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 32 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 1.96% to 33,585 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material factories might have new capacity put into production. The output was expected to be maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak overall, with the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials increasing, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continuing to decline. The market demand slowed down, and some component delivery prices were close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - **Project Information**: Sichuan Huadong Electric Group Co., Ltd. won the bid for the EPC general contracting project of the transmission line project of photovoltaic projects in Xundian County, Kunming City, Yunnan Province, with a bid price of 10,906,997.47 yuan [1]. - **EVA and EPE Film**: The mainstream price range of EVA film was 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of EPE film was 13,900 - 14,000 yuan/ton. Due to the decline in component production and weak demand, and the weak and stable price of EVA photovoltaic material, the price of the film was expected to remain stable in the near future [1].

王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 8850.00 | 8850.00 | 0.00% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7200.00 | 7200.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 7150.00 | 7150.00 | 0.00% | | 下 | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/12 游 | 元/吨 | 7100.00 | 7100.00 | 0.00% | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 6520.00 | 6495.00 | 0.38% | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 | 2025/6/12 | 元/吨 | 5840.00 | 5820.00 | 0.34% | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 | 2025/6/1 ...

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