王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和 建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据 本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不 得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 东 | 吨 | 年 | 的 | 醇 | 前 | 条 | 线 | 经 | 启 | 并 | 行 | 中 | 条 | 线 | 计 | 启 | 装 | 信 | 息 | 北 | 企 | 业 | 重 | 运 | 划 | 近 | 期 | 重 | 目 | 另 | 置 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 万 | / | 乙 | 已 | 于 | 二 | + | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory pressure, and silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, with limited downward space [1] - The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price was flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.34% to 7,370 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the wet season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, resulting in a decrease in overall production [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand was weak. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1] Polysilicon Market - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material was flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price rose 1.85% to 34,320 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, and some new production capacity might be put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output but still within 100,000 tons [1] - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1] Other Market Information - **Automobile Industry**: In May 2025, passenger car production and sales were 2.313 million and 2.352 million units respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 5.8%, and year - on - year increases of 12.8% and 13.3%. From January to May, production and sales were 11.08 million and 10.996 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 14.1% and 12.6% [1] - **Organic Silicon Market**: The domestic organic silicon DMC market's trading center continued to decline, and it was expected to decline slightly further. The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil changed, with DMC down 1.83% to 10,750 yuan/ton and 107 glue down 0.41% to 12,050 yuan/ton [1] - **New Energy Industry**: From January to May, the production of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% respectively. The power generation of wind and solar energy in large - scale industries increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1]

有色金属周报(锌) 弱势格局依旧，沪锌维持空配 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：中东紧张局势升级，地缘风险加剧，且美国关税风 | | | | | 波再起，需求不确定性增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。由于内外比值不佳，进口窗口持 | | | | | 续关闭，进口锌矿及港口转口贸易锌矿报价有限，炼厂以 | | | | | 采购国产矿为主。近期国内冶炼厂和贸易商成交了三季度 | 上周随着锌价跌破22,000元/吨关 | | | | 装期的Bisha锌矿，货量为1万吨，成交TC为50美元/干吨 | 口，下游逢低补库情绪有所显现， | | | | 左右。南美锌矿三季度集装箱报盘在70美元/干吨左右。 | 锌价后半周出现一定反弹，但终 | | |  | 成本利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，电价下移，冶炼成 | 端订单并无明显好转，淡季影响 | | | | 本减少，加之TC稳中向好，硫酸和小金属利润亦处于相 | 下企业看跌心态较重，加之供给 | 偏弱整理。 | | | | 端增量趋势明显，库存累库预期 | | | ...

目录 第一部分 结论及平衡表 第二部分 供需基本面 1 黑色金属周报-钢材 供需结构支撑卷螺差收缩 研究所 白净 F03097282，Z0018999 结论：近期美国对钢制家电征收关税以及地缘风险升高，黑色系价格整体呈现震荡运行，品 种表现有所分化。从基本面来看，当前现货市场成材需求进入传统消费淡季，后期或呈季节性累 库走势，热卷等板带材品种受利润驱动目前产量仍维持较高水平，螺纹产量持续下降，消费略强 于季节性，供需结构利于卷螺差继续收缩。估值来看，预计短线仍以修复基差为主，螺纹反弹压 力关注谷电成本（3132）。（风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎。） 350 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 1150 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 五大品种表观需求 2022 2023 2024 2025 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335373941434547495153 五大品种钢材社库+厂库（农历） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来 ...

【重要资讯】 0万日，浙江健立化学化工品生产情吸公司六葡巅耀建设项目一次投产成功，据了解，该公司年产2000吨六铜磷酸塑印目日居年产2万吨六氨磷酸锂、900吨灰氨磷酸肛胺铝、2000吨改变厂Z烯脲、7万吨铝电池电 解液新能源材料建设项目，建设地址为浙江台州山层经济开发区别代医药化工园区，该项目整体总投资5.1.亿元，项目分预期建设实施。其中第一期建设内容为年产2000-0元雨磷酸铝生产线及氨酯含出工程（设 施),其余部分均在第二期实施。 0近日，河南省濮阳市创南较南阳北司相继荔绕项目已安筹揭记完成，进入驻产阶段，该项目总投资6亿元，主要建设生产车间，原材料仓库、成品仓库、办公区及配套设施等，项目具备度兼容性，产品 可兼容路触，风冷、液令三种不同型号，荒足多样化市场需求。该项目设备整线智能化程度高。 上科、焊接、涂胶、观试工位均能实现无人化作业，极大稳导生产效率和产品质量稳定性，全部建成后，年产储器系统 装机容量将达4GWh、产值12亿元。 06月5日，期南汽溪高新区与华美兴泰科技股份南限公司成功签约年产4000万台移动电源、年产2亿买wifi理电池及配套生产线建设项目，总投资5亿元，全面馆创先产后，预计可成为 ...

| | 变量名称 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-05 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78010 | 78610 | 78170 | -600.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 98873 | 85090 | 64095 | 13,783.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 193847 | 203273 | 193026 I | -9, 426. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 36269 | 32785 | 31687 | 3, 484. 00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78952 | 79075 | 78415 | -120.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜基差 | 945 | 465 | 245 | 480.00 | | | | 广州电解铜现货开贴水 | 25 | 60 | -15 | | -35.00 mm mmm | | | 华北电解铜现货升贴水 | -250 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Tariff policies have not pushed up inflation at the production and consumption ends, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 780.36 yuan/gram, with a change of 10.50 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 21,494.00, and the open interest was 223,738.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,793.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 23.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 805,092.00, and the open interest was 3,525,006.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,452.60 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 46.20 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 224,107.00, and the open interest was 322,266.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.37 US dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.57 US dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 72,692.00, and the open interest was 93,632.00 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Geopolitical Tensions**: Iran and Israel have engaged in continuous mutual attacks, with the conflict expanding to oil and gas facilities. Iran is considering whether to block the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - **Trade Agreements**: The UK Prime Minister said there are no "obstacles" to finalizing a US-UK trade agreement. The US and Japan agreed to accelerate ministerial consultations to reach a mutually beneficial agreement, and the US and Vietnam are close to reaching a framework trade agreement [1]. - **Economic Data**: In May, the US added 139,000 non-farm payrolls, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. The annual average hourly wage rate was 3.9%, higher than expected and the previous value. In June, the US consumer inflation rate was 2.4%, lower than expected but higher than the previous value [1]. 3. Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December due to the lack of inflation rebound caused by tariff policies [1]. - **European Central Bank**: In June, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects one more rate cut by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of England**: In May, the BoE cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points, and the market expects two more rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Bank of Japan**: In January, the BoJ raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market expects a rate hike around July [1]. 4. Trading Strategies Investors are advised to go long on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 and the resistance level around 840 - 900. For London silver, focus on the support level around 31 - 34 and the resistance level around 38 - 40. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,300 - 8,500 and the resistance level around 9,500 - 10,000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation, with intensified conflicts between Israel and Iran and no short - term signs of easing, has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, breaking through the previous high pressure level. Considering that Iran is the main importer of methanol in China, methanol still has short - term rebound momentum. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol futures prices (closing prices) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: MA01 in Shandong increased by 70 yuan/ton (4.53%), MA05 increased by 58 yuan/ton (2.53%), and MA09 increased by 99 yuan/ton (4.32%) [1]. - Methanol spot prices (daily average) on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Guangdong, it increased by 85 yuan/ton (3.66%); in Shaanxi, it increased by 70 yuan/ton (3.58%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it increased by 60 yuan/ton (2.74%); in Inner Mongolia, it increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (4.61%); there was no change in Hubei [1]. - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 37.5 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Upstream Costs - Coal spot prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all remained unchanged [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: in Hohhot and Chongqing, there were no changes [1]. 3.3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: coal - to - methanol in Northwest MTO remained unchanged at 359.7 yuan/ton; coal - to - methanol in MTO in the East decreased by 159.6 yuan/ton (- 26.60%); natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 570 yuan/ton; MTO in East China decreased by 191.5 yuan/ton (- 26.56%) [1]. - Methanol downstream profits on June 16, 2025, compared to June 12, 2025: acetic acid decreased by 25 yuan/ton (- 5.85%); MTBE increased by 118.2 yuan/ton (50.22%); formaldehyde and another product remained unchanged [1]. 3.4. Important Information - Domestic futures prices: On June 16, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 opened at 2282 yuan/ton, closed at 2389 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,689,953 lots and an open interest of 761,314 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1]. - Foreign information: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1]. 3.5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA rose significantly in the range and then declined, with the night - session closing at 2373. Due to the short - term rebound momentum of methanol and the high uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream has not entered the peak season and there is still a risk of inventory accumulation, the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production start-up provide strong support for lead prices. Future attention should be paid to the improvement of demand and macro uncertainties [1] - For zinc, recent macro sentiment has improved, and downstream spot trading has improved after the zinc price decline. However, considering supply-side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices may be limited, and a short position strategy is still recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the Shanghai lead basis was -170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 3-month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,992.50 US dollars/ton, up 0.03%; the Shanghai-London lead price ratio was 8.50, up 0.30% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 70.79%, a week-on-week increase of 0.33 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 32.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 4.1 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 72.19%, a week-on-week increase of 11.8 percentage points. As of June 13, the finished product inventory of secondary lead smelters was 25,000 tons, an increase of 2,050 tons from the previous week. The silver pricing coefficient in lead concentrates has not changed [1] - **Market Analysis**: The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost issues. The demand side is gradually shifting from the off-season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down [1] Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of SMM 1 zinc ingots was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; the closing price of the futures main contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 1.22%; the Shanghai zinc basis was 355 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the LME 3-month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,626.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.66%; the Shanghai-London zinc price ratio was 8.31, down 0.56% [1] - **Industry Data**: From June 7 to June 13, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 60.06%, a week-on-week increase of 0.48 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die-cast zinc alloy enterprises was 59.84%, a week-on-week increase of 6.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.92%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.58 percentage points. Last week, there were overseas zinc mine tenders with a tender volume of about 10,000 tons each [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply-side pressure is increasing, while the demand side is in the off-season, with mixed performance in different sectors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. There is no expectation of a reversal in silicon prices, and it is expected to remain under pressure at a low level in the short term. However, considering the current silicon prices are at an absolute low, the subsequent downward space may be relatively limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, and the transaction price of polysilicon has declined. Considering the strong uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the problem of over - capacity, it is expected that the polysilicon price will hardly show an upward trend in the short term. The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, the average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.48% to 7,345 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. Although the southwest production area is approaching the wet season, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall starting rate has declined [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, the actual transaction price has declined, and the overall starting rate has decreased, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: On June 16, 2025, N - type dense material decreased by 1.43% to 34.5 yuan/kg compared with the previous day; polysilicon re - feed material decreased by 1.52% to 32.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material decreased by 1.56% to 31.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material decreased by 1.67% to 29.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.33% to 33,695 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, and some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, and the overall output is maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market as a whole is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and polysilicon has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and the delivery price of some components is close to a new low, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - From June 6th to June 12th, the weekly output of sample silicon plants in Xinjiang was 31,670 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 65%, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The operating capacity in Xinjiang was basically stable during the week, and the operating rate remained unchanged. There is room for an increase in the operating rate in Xinjiang in the future. After the recent rebound of the industrial silicon futures price, the quantity of spot sales at the point price by silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased significantly, and the equity inventory of silicon enterprises has decreased significantly compared with the previous period [1]. - On June 13th, it was reported that in terms of silicon wafer prices, this week, the price of N - type 183 was in the range of 0.90 - 0.92 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210R was in the range of 1.05 - 1.1 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210 was in the range of 1.25 - 1.3 yuan/piece. This week, silicon wafer prices continued to decline. After the Shanghai SNEC Photovoltaic Exhibition ended, enterprises were pessimistic about the price trends of various links in the photovoltaic industry chain, and it is expected that the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and auxiliary materials will continue to decline [1].