Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The relaxation of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to export expectations, and there are fluctuations in the production of multiple overseas steel mills. However, due to the traditional off - season of consumption, the destocking of domestic electrolytic copper is difficult, which may cause adjustments in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to support and pressure levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,290, with a volume of 64,136 lots, an increase of 410 compared to the previous day; the open interest was 209,523 lots, an increase of 838; the inventory was 33,373 tons, a decrease of 373 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,310, an increase of 35 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 20, a decrease of 375; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed various changes; the spreads between different contract months also changed, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 11, 2025 was 9,647, a decrease of 78; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 119,450; the spreads between different contract periods also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The total inventory on June 11, 2025 was 4.8065 million tons, a decrease of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Information - **Upstream**: In June 2025, the overall starting rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises is expected to increase by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56%. Some mines have production plans and issues, such as the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, and some mines need to be shut down for maintenance. The import volume of copper concentrates may increase, while the production and import volume of scrap copper may decrease [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may decline in June, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper foil, etc., affected by factors such as the off - season of consumption and insufficient orders. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 82,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,000 - 9,300 and the pressure level of 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.5 - 4.5 and the pressure level of 5.0 - 5.5 for US copper [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in June 2025 is expected to be loose, and the social inventory has increased month - on - month. The price of lithium carbonate may first strengthen and then weaken. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 61,700 yuan/ton, 61,680 yuan/ton, 61,740 yuan/ton, and 61,740 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract on June 11 was 236,197 lots, an increase of 31,417 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 178,235 lots, a decrease of 16,496 lots [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory on June 11 was 32,837 tons, a decrease of 110 tons compared to the previous day [1] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan/ton [1] Lithium and Related Product Spot Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on June 11 was 630 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day. The average prices of different grades of lithium mica also showed varying degrees of increase [1] - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 60,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic) decreased by 300 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Products**: The prices of products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different trends, with some prices decreasing slightly [1] Company News - **Lingling Precision**: Its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua revised the original "Business Cooperation Agreement" with CATL, increasing the production capacity in Jiangxi to 160,000 tons/year and the production and sales in Sichuan Phase III to 200,000 tons/year. CATL promised to purchase no less than 30% of Jiangxi Shenghua's committed production capacity annually, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the lithium iron phosphate cathode material business [2] - **Xintai Co., Ltd.**: Its 10,000 - ton lithium salt project in Indonesia has been in trial production since 2025, and the certification of some core customers is in the final stage, with mass production expected in the third quarter. The company has a business layout in metal gallium for solid - state batteries [2] Supply and Demand Situation - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in January 2026, increasing the total production capacity to 2.01 million tons/year. The production and import of domestic lithium ore in June may change, and some production lines are under maintenance or capacity conversion. The production profit of some lithium carbonate production methods is negative [3] - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production and inventory of lithium hydroxide in June may change, with the production profit of some production methods being negative, and the export volume may increase [3] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate Supply**: The production and inventory of lithium iron phosphate in June may increase, and many projects are under construction or planned to be put into production [3] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 due to the complex supply - demand situation and price trends [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, although downstream is in the off - season with high inventory accumulation risk, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and high uncertainty in production, lead prices may rebound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of cost support and macro - uncertainty factors [1]. - For zinc, despite the recent improvement in macro - sentiment and better spot trading after the price decline, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory build - up expectations, the rebound space of zinc prices is limited, and a short - position allocation strategy is still recommended [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,625 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures main contract closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous day; the basis was - 220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 21,724 lots, down 40.01%; the open interest was 43,989 lots, up 0.05% [1]. - LME3 - month lead futures closed at 1,993.5 dollars/ton, up 0.30%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.45, down 0.51% [1]. News and Production - An east - China secondary lead smelter plans to resume production at the end of June, and raw material procurement may resume one week before the furnace starts [1]. - A south - west primary lead smelter plans a one - week maintenance starting in late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons, but the monthly output is expected to be unaffected [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase; secondary lead production is at a relatively low level due to rising waste battery prices, limited raw materials, and high costs; demand is weak in the off - season, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.63%; the futures main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.35%; the basis was 90 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the trading volume of the active futures contract was 170,227 lots, up 7.31%; the open interest was 125,779 lots, down 6.88% [1]. - LME3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,651 dollars/ton, down 0.28%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.35, up 1.64% [1]. News and Resource - Xingye Yinxi Mining Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary's silver mine resource reserve verification report was approved, with silver reserves increasing from 859.8 tons to 11,114 tons, and associated metals' resources also increasing [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and the raw material shortage situation has improved, with cost support weakening and production increasing; demand is in the off - season, and considering environmental inspections, the start - up rate is expected to decline this week [1].

Group 1: Market Data - The closing price of JM2509 futures was 775 yuan/ton, and J2509 was 1341 yuan/ton. The coking profit of the 2509 contract was 250.9 yuan/ton, up 9.4 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - In the spot market, the warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product in Shanxi was 857 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of Tangshan Hao 5 was 793 yuan, and the warehouse receipt price of Jinquan Meng 5 clean coal was 908 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt price of the optimal deliverable product of coking coal was 793 yuan/ton [3] - For coke, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1298 yuan/ton, the warehouse receipt price of wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1307 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt price of dry - quenched coke in Xingtai was 1320 yuan/ton [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Price Changes - In the coke futures market, prices of different contracts showed various changes. For example, J01 - J05 spread increased by 18.0, and J01 - J05 was - 0.5 compared to - 185 previously [2] - In the coking coal futures market, JM01 - JM05 spread increased by 7.5, and JM01 - JM05 was - 20.0 compared to - 27.5 previously [2] - Coke spot prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. Coking coal spot prices of Australian low - volatile and Shanxi optimal warehouse receipts were stable, while Australian medium - volatile decreased by 1 [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Coke - The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, down 0.11 tons (- 0.05%) from the previous period. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.3 tons, down 0.04 tons (- 0.08%) [2] - The daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants was 66.8 tons, down 0.27 tons (- 0.40%). The daily average coke consumption of 247 steel enterprises was 108.8 tons, down 0.05 tons (- 0.05%) [2] - The coke inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 15.6 tons (14.03%), and the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 9.1 tons (- 1.39%). The port coke inventory decreased by 3.0 tons (- 1.40%) [2] Coking Coal - The daily average output of clean coal from 110 coal - washing plants was 51.5 tons, down 0.3 tons (- 0.60%). The daily average output of clean coal from 523 mines was 74.5 tons, down 1.8 tons (- 2.29%) [2] - The clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants increased by 23.0 tons (10.35%), and the raw coal inventory of 523 mines increased by 7.7 tons (1.63%) [2] - The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons (- 3.24%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 6.9 tons (- 2.02%). The port coking coal inventory increased by 6.6 tons (3.28%) [2] Group 4: Important News - On June 11, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter to the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators for the Implementation of the Outcomes of the China - Africa Cooperation Forum [4] - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks [4] - On June 11, President Trump called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by one percentage point [4] - From June 10th to 11th, more than a dozen mainstream passenger car enterprises promised to unify the payment period to suppliers within 60 days. BAIC Group and SAIC Group gave up "commercial acceptance bills" [4] - On June 11, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 78.70 tons, a 17.1% decrease from the previous day. The transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 10.46 tons, a 4.9% increase [4] - On June 11, the ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2920 yuan/ton [5] - The average cost of billets for mainstream steel mills in Tangshan was 2832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average profit of steel mills was 88 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton [5] - The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 57.36%, a decrease of 3.23% from the previous period. The daily output was 47.79 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons [5] - The China Electricity Council predicted that the price of thermal coal would remain weak and stable before the full release of demand [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy and Core View - The third round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 170 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 185 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke [6] - The current fundamental situation of coking coal and coke remains weak, with significant downward pressure. Steel has entered the off - season, and its price is expected to fluctuate weakly. However, steel mills are still profitable, and the reduction in iron - making output has slowed down [6] - Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are eager to suppress raw material prices. Coking enterprises are facing increasing pressure to sell, and their inventories are growing rapidly. After the third round of price cuts, coking enterprises' profits are near the break - even point, and there may be further price cuts [6] - Coke supply is relatively loose, and its futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Coking coal supply is also relatively loose, although it has slightly decreased. The spot market of coking coal is weak, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Tariff policies have not pushed up consumer - side inflation, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Coupled with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly position for long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 774.54 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.72 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.45 yuan compared to last week. Trading volume decreased by 11,438.00, and inventory remained at 17,817.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 8,882.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 15.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 429.00 yuan compared to last week. Trading volume decreased by 368,450.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,376.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.90 dollars compared to the previous day. Trading volume increased by 43,521.00, and inventory decreased by 398,530.69 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 36.36 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.30 dollars compared to the previous day. Trading volume increased by 11,275.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,334.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 5.05 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.95 dollars compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Price Spread and Basis - **Shanghai Gold**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was - 2.30, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 2.24 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 2.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 3.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 2.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 7.10 [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts was 0.12, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.27 [1]. 3.3 Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 87.21, with a change of - 5.15 compared to the previous value. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 90.80, with a change of - 5.38 compared to the previous value [1]. 3.4 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE JAD was - 1.70 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent was 70.78 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude was 68.30 dollars/barrel [1]. - **Copper**: Shanghai copper futures were 79,290.00 yuan/ton, and LME copper spot was 9,647.00 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,402.3159, the S&P 500 was 6,022.2400, the UK FTSE 100 was 77.33, etc. [1]. 3.5 Important News - **Tariff Policy**: The US Federal Appellate Court extended the Trump tariffs, with a key hearing in late July. The EU may postpone trade negotiations until after July. US May CPI data showed that inflation did not rise significantly [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Trump's "confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations has weakened", and Iran warned of retaliation if the negotiations fail [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed may cut interest rates in September or December. The European Central Bank may cut interest rates once more by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates twice by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates around July [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in oil prices may provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. Although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, where China mainly imports methanol from Iran, brings significant risks. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: MA01 increased from 2338 yuan/ton to 2345 yuan/ton, a 0.30% rise; MA05 rose from 2279 yuan/ton to 2289 yuan/ton, a 0.44% increase; MA09 went up from 2276 yuan/ton to 2282 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase [1]. - **Spot prices**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia increased, with Shandong rising from 2155 yuan/ton to 2167.50 yuan/ton (0.58%) and Inner Mongolia from 1895 yuan/ton to 1897.50 yuan/ton (0.13%). The price in Taicang decreased from 2370 yuan/ton to 2361.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%), while those in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Upstream costs**: Most coal and natural gas prices remained stable, with Ordos Q5500 coal price dropping from 425 yuan/ton to 422.50 yuan/ton (-0.59%) [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - to - methanol profit remained at 359.70 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit stayed at - 570 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit decreased from 603.80 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton (-2.29%), and East China MTO profit dropped from - 642.07 yuan/ton to - 669.07 yuan/ton (-4.21%). Profits of downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE also declined [1]. 3.3 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 first rose and then fell, opening at 2282 yuan/ton, closing at 2276 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 661,705 lots and an open interest of 832,017, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, although the fundamental outlook for methanol is bearish, there may be short - term rebound momentum. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250612: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月11日 | 6月10日 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (矩对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1647.00 1750.00 1620.00 | 1646.00 1760.00 1640.00 | 1.00 -10.00 -20.00 | 0.06% -0.57% -1.22% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1685.00 | 1681.00 | 4.00 | 0.24% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1667.00 | 1678.00 | -11.00 | -0.66% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1750.00 | 1760.00 | -10.00 | -0.57% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The international oil price is running strongly in a range, and the cost - driven guidance for PX is limited. PX is expected to be in a destocking rhythm in the next few months. The focus of the current fundamentals is on the demand side, and prices are affected by marginal demand while following cost changes. [2] - The supply of PTA is gradually increasing, with inventory accumulation expected in July, which is negative for the PTA market. In the short - term, PTA prices will move in a range, and the fundamentals have no driving force after downstream production cuts. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a light trading atmosphere, with sufficient supply and limited downstream purchasing intention. The recent start - up rate may decline slightly. [2] - Considering the current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly, with all having a view score of 1. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 11, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $68.15 per barrel, up 4.88%; that of Brent crude oil was $69.77 per barrel, up 4.34%. The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.50 per ton, down 0.35%. [1] - **PTA Price**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,620 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 4,606 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,818 yuan per ton, down 0.82%. [1] - **PX Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,528 yuan per ton, up 0.40%; the settlement price was 6,506 yuan per ton, down 0.70%. The PX CFR China price was $812 per ton. [1][2] - **PR Price**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,802 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; the settlement price was 5,788 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,890 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. [1] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Most CCFEI price indices of downstream polyester products remained stable or declined slightly on June 11, 2025. For example, the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,495 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. [2] 2. Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 250 yuan per ton on June 11, 2025, an increase of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was 200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43 yuan per ton. [1] - The PXN spread of PX was $240.50 per ton, down 1.37%; the PX - MX spread was $109 per ton, down 7.49%; the basis was - 36 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26 yuan per ton. [1] - The basis of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 88 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 198 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton. [1] 3. Start - up Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the start - up rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, down 1.45 percentage points. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 83.56%, unchanged. [1] - The polyester factory load rate was 89.64%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 83.82%, unchanged; the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 69.09%, unchanged. [1] 4. Production and Sales Rate Information - On June 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 28 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 75%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 69%, down 42 percentage points. [1] 5. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20. A 0.8 - million - ton PX device in South China is under planned maintenance, and some device maintenance plans are postponed. [2] 6. Important News - Sino - US trade talks have a certain supporting effect on economic growth and oil demand, but the increase in gasoline and distillate inventories suppresses oil prices. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects the demand expectation of PX. [2] - The PTA device maintenance peak has passed, new production capacity is in trial operation, and the supply will increase in the month. The reduction of polyester short - fiber production affects market sentiment. [2] - The domestic weaving market in June continues to be weak, with some small US orders emerging. Terminal inventory pressure is high, and the loom start - up rate in June is expected to decline. [2]

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, but the downward space may be limited due to the current low prices. [1] - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the transaction price is moving downward. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues in the short term, polysilicon prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short term. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The average price of industrial silicon's non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.96% to 7,560 yuan/ton. [1] - **Polysilicon**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 32 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 34,255 yuan/ton. [1] - **Silicon Wafer**: Most photovoltaic companies' silicon wafer prices followed the market downward, with small and medium - sized enterprises having a larger decline of about 0.03 yuan/piece. In June, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises was generally lower than that in May, mostly between 40% - 60%, a month - on - month decrease of about 3% - 13%. [1] - **Others**: The prices of battery chips, components, and most organic silicon products remained stable, while the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.36% to 13,750 yuan/ton. [1] Industry News - In May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. [1] - Cangzhou Huayu Special Gas Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 5,000 - ton electronic special gas project was officially put into production, with a 95% domestic - made silane gas production device and the largest single - set production capacity in the country. [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season was approaching, there was a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. For polysilicon, enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some may have new capacity put into production, with an expected output of less than 100,000 tons. [1] - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production reduction, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak, and the actual transaction price declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand, and the downstream had low willingness to stock up at low prices. The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components. [1]