| 行用服装 | 贵金属日评20250606:拉加德日欧洲央行降息接近结束,美初请失业金人数高于预期前值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-04 | 收益价 | 783. 72 | 764. 32 | 1.30 | 782. 42 | 19. 40 | | | | | 成交重 | 6, 478. 00 | -52, 172. 00 | 198422.00 | 250594.00 | 191944.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | -12, 268. 00 | 182808.00 | 180310.00 | 195076.00 | 2, 498. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17847.00 | 17247.00 | 17247.00 | 600. 00 | 600. 00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The methanol market had a short - term rebound, but there is insufficient upward momentum. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving force perspective, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its own fundamentals. The supply, including imports and inland supply, has recovered rapidly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2330 yuan/ton to 2319 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.47%; MA05 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.31%; MA09 decreased from 2270 yuan/ton to 2259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.48% [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average)**: Prices in Taicang increased from 2297.50 yuan/ton to 2307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.44%; in Shandong, it increased from 2140 yuan/ton to 2145 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.23%; in Guangdong, it decreased from 2295 yuan/ton to 2292.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.11%; in Shaanxi, it increased from 1920 yuan/ton to 1937.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.91%; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton; in Hubei, it decreased from 2225 yuan/ton to 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.22%; in Inner Mongolia, it increased from 1875 yuan/ton to 1892.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.50 yuan/ton or 0.93% [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 32.50 yuan/ton to - 11.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 remained unchanged at 425 yuan/ton; the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 470 yuan/ton; the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 482.50 yuan/ton to 480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.50 yuan/ton or 0.52% [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The price in Hohhot remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; the price in Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1] 3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton; the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600 yuan/ton [1] - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased from 646.60 yuan/ton to 577.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton or 10.67%; the profit of East China MTO decreased from - 467.07 yuan/ton to - 477.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.50 yuan/ton or 2.25%; the profit of acetic acid decreased from 545.45 yuan/ton to 515.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 5.50%; the profit of MTBE remained unchanged at 221.52 yuan/ton; the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 186.40 yuan/ton; the profit of another product remained unchanged at 898 yuan/ton [1] 4. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2263 yuan/ton, closing at 2259 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 741486 lots and an open interest of 812450 lots. There was a decrease in volume and open interest, and all contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply situation [1] 5. Trading Strategy - In the previous trading day, MA had a small rebound, closing at 2275 in the night session. Recently, the rebound of oil prices and coal prices, as well as the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading, provide short - term rebound momentum for methanol. However, in the long run, methanol has insufficient upward momentum [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating in the report Core View of the Report - Recommend paying attention to the rebound opportunities of urea in the future market and still suggest mainly buying on dips The reasons are that the market sentiment of coal has changed recently, which may reduce the drag on coal - chemical industry, and from the perspective of urea demand, the domestic drought has eased, June - July is the peak season for top - dressing of northern corn, and the loosening of export policies and price decline will stimulate speculative demand, so the demand for urea in the next two months is not bad and the possibility of a deep decline is small [1] Summary According to Relevant Contents Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On June 5, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1670 yuan/ton, 1701 yuan/ton, and 1722 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 36 yuan/ton (- 2.11%), - 28 yuan/ton, and - 52 yuan/ton (- 2.93%) compared to June 4 Domestic spot prices in different regions also showed different degrees of change, such as a - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.16%) change in Shanxi, - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.54%) in Henan [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 149 yuan/ton on June 5, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to June 4 The 01 - 05 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan decreased by 100 yuan/ton (- 8.47%) to 1080 yuan/ton on June 5 compared to June 4 Downstream prices such as compound fertilizer and melamine also showed different degrees of decline, for example, the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 0.68%) [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1768 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1768 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1718 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1722 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1739 yuan/ton, and the position was 245709 lots [1]

| 铅锌日评20250606：或有反弹 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/6 指标 近期趋势 单位 今值 变动 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,500.00 0.46% | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,695.00 0.15% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -195.00 50.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -15.00 - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -23.08 -1.10 | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -62.40 -2.50 价差 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 35.00 | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -5.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 20.00 10.00 | | | | 30,915.00 -11.70% 期货活跃合约成交量 手 | | | | 成交持仓 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 50,484.00 -3.83% | | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.61 -8.18% | | | | 吨 282 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and it is difficult to find the bottom of silicon prices. However, the current position is at an absolute low. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, considering the weak fundamentals and the difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem in the short - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon decreased by 0.56% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped by 1.99% to 7,135 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north have cut production due to cost inversion. Although the southwest production area is approaching the wet - season, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate has decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price is falling. The start - up rate of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has a low willingness to stock up at low prices [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 30 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.47% to 34,540 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will be maintained within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rebounds and continuously monitor the supply - side changes [1]. Other Information - **Organic Silicon**: Due to the significant decline in the cost of 421 silicon, the profit of domestic organic silicon monomer enterprises has started to recover, with the average industry profit reaching about 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared to last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week [1].

| G | M | E | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 新 | 期 | 单 | 位 | ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 63.37 | 62.85 | 0.83% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/桶 | 65.34 | 64.86 | 0.74% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 557.13 | 562.63 | -0.98% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 698.00 | 699.50 | -0.21% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/5 | 美元/吨 | 820.00 | 825.33 | -0.65% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/5 | 元/吨 | 4644.00 | 4670.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's uncertain tariff policies have raised concerns about consumption and financial tax burdens, leading to an earlier expected timing for the Fed to cut interest rates to September/October. The upstream copper mining industry has multiple factors affecting production, while the downstream copper processing industry has a complex situation with some capacity utilization rates changing. Considering the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs, overseas copper mine production fluctuations, low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,200 yuan, up 550 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 111,382 lots, an increase of 29,465 lots; open interest was 195,214 lots, up 12,954 lots; inventory was 31,933 tons, an increase of 529 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,485 yuan, up 40 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis decreased by 510 yuan [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 4, 2025, was 9,649, up 10.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 141,350 tons compared to a previous date. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 48.48, down 3.83; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 109.89, down 6.86 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On June 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.901, up 0.04. The total inventory was 185,683 tons, an increase of 3,057 tons [2] Upstream - Various copper mines have different production situations. For example, the west side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, while the east side's drainage may last until February. Some mines in Canada and Indonesia have production disruptions or changes due to mechanical failures or export policies. Multiple new projects are expected to increase production in the future, which may affect the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in June [4] Downstream - The operating rates of China's refined copper rod and recycled copper rod factories have increased compared to last week, while the operating rate of the copper wire and cable industry has decreased. Due to the combination of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rates of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline in June [4] Investment Strategy - Given the current market situation, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 74,600 - 76,600 for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 for London copper, and the pressure level of 4.3 - 4.5 for US copper [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to domestic new energy vehicle promotion policies, the inventory of domestic lithium carbonate will eventually decline. However, the falling price of lithium carbonate will reduce its production cost, resulting in a pattern of strong front and weak back for lithium carbonate. Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the near - term support level of 53,000 - 58,000 and the near - term resistance level of 63,000 - 68,000 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On June 4, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 61,220 yuan/ton, 61,080 yuan/ton, 61,220 yuan/ton, and 61,220 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on June 4, 2025, was 413,239 lots, an increase of 108,078 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 245,650 lots, a decrease of 14,008 lots from the previous day [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate was 33,397 tons on June 4, 2025, a decrease of 60 tons from the previous day [1] - **Spot Prices**: Various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different price changes on June 4, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Industry News and Project Progress - **Project Progress**: The GTM cylindrical battery project of Hami Haochen Xinghui Technology Co., Ltd. has entered the main construction stage, with a total investment of 1.9 billion yuan. It is expected to put 3 fully automated production lines into operation by the end of September 2025, with an annual output of over 1 million cells and an annual output value exceeding 5 billion yuan. Shengrong Technology's annual 1,000 - ton lithium - battery cathode lithium - supplementing agent project has been put into production, and its annual 2,000 - ton project is under construction, with an expected annual sales of 500 million yuan and annual taxes of 20 million yuan [2] - **Supply - related Information**: Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 5.7 - million - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of domestic lithium ore. The production capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium carbonate has increased, and the production volume in June may increase month - on - month. Some production lines will undergo maintenance, and new production capacities will be put into production in the future [2] Other Product Information - **Phosphoric Acid Iron and Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The monthly average production cost of phosphoric acid iron in China is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the production volume of lithium iron phosphate in June may increase month - on - month. Multiple lithium iron phosphate projects are under construction or will be put into production [3] - **Nickel Sulfate and Other Products**: The daily full - cost production cost of MEP in China is 126,000 - 129,000 yuan/ton, and the monthly production cost of high - water - level integrated nickel sulfate production in Indonesia is 114,500 yuan/ton. The export of cobalt from Congo (Kinshasa) has been suspended, affecting the processing fee of cobalt products in China [3] - **Other Battery - related Products**: The production volume of some battery - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and electrolytes may change in June. The export volume of some products may increase, while the production volume of others may decrease [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, downstream is in the consumption off - season, with high risk of inventory accumulation due to consumption loss during the Dragon Boat Festival. However, due to the continuous shortage of waste batteries and increased losses of secondary lead smelters, lead prices may rebound in the short - term. The effectiveness of cost support and macro uncertainties should be monitored [1]. - For zinc, the market has strong supply and weak demand. Although inventory is relatively low and provides short - term support, in the long - term, as TC has room to rise, zinc prices may decline. A strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and macro - sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On June 5, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,425 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,670 yuan/ton, up 0.60%. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 1,984 dollars/ton, down 0.10%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 35,010 lots, up 22.67%, and the open interest was 52,496 lots, down 5.49%. The LME inventory was 281,550 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 41,698 tons, up 3.43% [1]. - **Industry News**: An large secondary lead smelter in East China has resumed production, but its output is unstable due to environmental inspections. On June 3, Canadian mining company Americas Gold and Silver reached a 100 - million - dollar senior secured loan financing agreement and a concentrate off - take agreement for its Galena project [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. In secondary lead, rising waste battery prices, limited supplies, and sellers' reluctance to sell have led to cost - price inversion and reduced production in some smelters. Demand is weak during the off - season, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On June 5, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,840 yuan/ton, up 0.53% from the previous day; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract was 22,420 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,704 dollars/ton, down 0.28%. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 169,465 lots, up 9.02%, and the open interest was 123,944 lots, up 0.99%. The LME inventory was 136,275 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 1,376 tons, down 17.85% [1]. - **Industry News**: A zinc smelter in South China will conduct equipment maintenance for 10 - 15 days this month, expected to affect about 2,000 tons of production. On June 4, Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals temporarily closed its Snow Lake mine due to wildfires [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The supply situation has improved, and smelter profits and production enthusiasm are increasing. However, demand is weak during the off - season, and the operating rates of the three major sectors have declined significantly [1].