1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the Fed officials' concerns about inflation risks leading to cautious rate - cuts, the uncertainty of Trump administration's tariff policies, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, and intractable geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly layout long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 772.28 yuan/gram, with a change of 10.14 yuan compared to 2025 - 05 - 28. The trading volume was 210,848.00, and the open interest was 180,833.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 8225.00 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of 449,279.00 and an open interest of 379,627.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 3376.90 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume change of - 127,320.00 and an open - interest change of - 2,402.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 34.68 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 49,127.00 and an open interest of 118,227.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 3364.60 US dollars/ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding was 13.18 [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price on 2025 - 06 - 03 was 34.35 US dollars/ounce, and the US iShare Silver ETF holding was 14,552.37 [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data - **US Economy**: The US June ADP employment increase was only 37,000, the lowest since March 2023. The US May ISM Services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with high prices and falling demand. The May manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI were 48.5 and 49.9 respectively, lower than expected and previous values, and the May ADP employment was 37,000, also lower than expected and previous values [1]. - **European Economy**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The eurozone and German and French May manufacturing PMIs were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and previous values, while the eurozone May consumer price index CPI annual rate was 1.9%, lower than expected and previous values [1]. - **UK Economy**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce government bond holdings from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK May SRCI manufacturing (service) PMI was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and previous values [1]. - **Japanese Economy**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%. Japan's (Tokyo) April consumer price index CPI annual rate was 3.6% (3.5%), meeting expectations (higher than expected). The largest Japanese labor union Renzo achieved an average wage increase of 5.46% [1]. 3.3 Geopolitical and Policy News - Trump's expenditure bill is expected to increase the federal government's budget deficit by 2.4 trillion US dollars in the next few years. Tensions are rising in some regions, and Trump's tariff policies have caused concerns about inflation rebound [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly layout long positions on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3000 - 3200 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 and the resistance level is around 840 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7800 - 8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is expected to maintain a slow downward trend in the short - term due to factors such as polyester production cuts and weakening downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Upstream Cost - As of June 4, 2025, the spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $562.63 per ton, up 0.18% from the previous value; the price index of ethylene in Northeast Asia was $781 per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of ethylene oxide in East China was 6,300 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol was 2,272.5 yuan per ton, unchanged; the pit - mouth price of lignite in Inner Mongolia was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the DCE main EG contract closing price was 4,292 yuan per ton, down 0.33% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 0.92%; the DCE near - month EG contract closing price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.32%; the settlement price was 4,288 yuan per ton, down 2.48%; the market intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,480 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol was 4,425 yuan per ton, down 0.56% [1] - The near - far month price difference was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 69 yuan per ton from the previous value; the basis was 133 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.3 Operating Conditions - As of June 4, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol was 50.18%, down 0.75 percentage points from the previous value; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol was 51.78%, unchanged; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 47.86%, down 1.83 percentage points [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain's polyester factory was 89.63%, down 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Cash Flow Situation - As of June 4, 2025, the after - tax gross profit of MTO to MEG was - 1,540.34 yuan per ton, a decrease of 129.39 yuan per ton from the previous value; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis gas method was 680.97 yuan per ton, a decrease of 53.10 yuan per ton from the previous value [1] 3.5 Polyester Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan per ton, up 0.15%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1] 3.6 Equipment Information - A 904,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in East China has completed maintenance and resumed normal operation; another 400,000 - ton/year plant is expected to shut down for maintenance in the near future [2] 3.7 Market Trends and Strategies - On June 4, the ethylene glycol market was weak in the morning, with the basis showing a weak trend. The afternoon session saw a small rebound, and the market sentiment was slightly warmer [2] - The downstream polyester market has seen production cuts, with the sales of polyester filaments, staple fibers, and chips decreasing by 36.03%, 59.67%, and 49.29% respectively. The market is expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Both the futures and spot prices are declining in tandem. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the bottom of silicon prices is difficult to determine. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For polysilicon, it is advisable to short on rebounds due to the weak fundamentals and the difficulty of an upward trend in the short - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 0.61% to 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price increased by 2.97% to 7,280 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the wet season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate decreased [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and the resumption of production might be postponed. The organic silicon industry had a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but demand was weak. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed, and the downstream had insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to gradually take profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type polysilicon materials remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price increased by 2.02% to 35,055 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction state, and some plants might have new production capacity put into operation. The output was expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor changes in the supply side [1]. Other Information - A monomer enterprise in North China started a 15 - day maintenance, which was expected to affect the DMC output by about 4,000 tons [1]. - Bangjie Co., Ltd. decided to continue the suspension of its battery cell production line to avoid expanding losses [1]. - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, with the construction industry at 51.0% and the service industry at 50.2%. Some industries were in a high - prosperity range, while others were below the critical point [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - **PX**: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - **Start - up Rate**: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - **Production and Sales Rate**: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a continuous decline, with cost support weakening, supply increasing, demand remaining weak, high social inventory, and expected short - term price decline. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds. - The polysilicon market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices falling in both the futures and spot markets. The downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing as it enters the flat - water period, and the overall in - production cost of the industry will decline after the shutdown of high - cost enterprises in the north. Cost support for silicon prices is insufficient. - In May, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,417 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 416 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,188 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 103 yuan/ton. [2][36] 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the number of open furnaces increased significantly, mainly from restarted enterprises in Xinjiang. As of now, the restart in Xinjiang has temporarily ended, and there are no expected new restarts in the short term. In Sichuan, enterprises are gradually increasing furnace openings with the decline of electricity prices in the wet season. Yunnan still has restart plans after maintenance, expected to restart around mid - to - late June. - In the week of May 29, the silicon enterprise's furnace - opening rate increased slightly, with a net increase of 20 furnaces. [2][37] 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most transactions are at low prices. Polysilicon plants maintain a large - scale production reduction, the organic silicon industry reduces production, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, with rigid procurement of industrial silicon. [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 29, the industrial silicon social inventory (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 58.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons; the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan totaled 23.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 million tons. [2][119] 3.1.5 Market Outlook - With strong restart expectations in the southwest production area and an increase in furnace openings of some silicon enterprises in the north, the supply shows an obvious increasing trend, while the demand maintains rigid procurement. Futures and spot prices are falling in tandem, and it is expected that there will be no significant improvement in the short term. The futures price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. [2] 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - In May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,900 tons. As of May 29, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises will increase and decrease simultaneously, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly. [67] 3.2.2 Demand - Demand is weak. Domestically, orders have shrunk significantly, while overseas orders are relatively stable. Long - term component orders have decreased significantly, and the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline. The demand for battery chips from the component side has decreased, and it is expected that the production scheduling of battery chips will be tight in June. Silicon wafer prices have declined across all sizes, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction. [2] 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the futures and spot prices are falling in tandem. The downstream purchasing willingness remains low, and there is no expectation of bottom - fishing for inventory. Although the number of warehouse receipts has not increased significantly, the weak fundamentals have not led to the trading of squeeze - out risks in the futures price. In the short term, warehouse receipts have alleviated the price factor, and the strategy is to short on rallies. [2] 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Production - In May, the operating rate of China's DMC was 62.37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.79 percentage points; the DMC output was 184,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. The industry mainly maintains production with reduced loads, and the overall operating rate has slightly increased. [87] 3.3.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of DMC was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the average price of 107 rubber was 12,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of silicone oil was 13,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the price of organic silicon has fallen to a low level, downstream purchasing willingness has increased, and market confidence has been somewhat restored. [94] 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Production - In the week of May 29, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.6%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 percentage points. [104] 3.4.2 Price - As of May 30, the average price of ADC12 was 20,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. [107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to domestic new - energy vehicle countryside promotion and 618 promotion policies, the domestic lithium carbonate social inventory has been continuously decreasing. However, because of the decreasing domestic lithium carbonate production cost and the loosening supply - demand expectation, the lithium carbonate price may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations, paying attention to the support level around 55,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 65,000 [1][4] - The lithium carbonate basis is positive and the monthly spread is positive, and both are basically in a reasonable range. This is due to the promotion of new - energy vehicles in the countryside in China, the initial decline of domestic lithium carbonate social inventory, the decreasing lithium ore price leading to the downward shift of production cost, and the loose supply - demand expectation of domestic lithium carbonate in June. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see the arbitrage opportunities of lithium carbonate basis and monthly spread [5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Ore and Lithium Concentrate - The price of domestic (imported) lithium ore has been oscillating downward (decreasing). Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, and the total capacity will reach 2.14 million tons/year, which will lead to the oscillating decline (decrease) of the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. The domestic lithium concentrate production (import) volume in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month [8][10][13] Lithium Carbonate - The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month, and the supply expectation is loose. Yabao's Chengdu lithium salt production line will start maintenance before June 2025. Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton production capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The import window is closed, but Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000 - ton lithium chloride production capacity project in the Mariana lithium salt lake in Argentina was officially put into production in February, which may lead to the month - on - month increase of China's lithium carbonate import volume in June [3][29][36] - The cash production cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrate is about 65,500 and 65,600 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profit. The quarterly production profit of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica/lithium spodumene/salt lake integration is negative/positive/positive. The daily theoretical delivery and import profit of Chinese lithium carbonate are both negative [21][23][25] - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese lithium carbonate has increased (increased) compared with last week, and the social inventory of Chinese lithium carbonate has decreased compared with last week. The daily theoretical delivery profit of Chinese lithium carbonate is negative, which makes the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate decrease compared with last week [27][30][32] Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production cost of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide is 58,600 (64,600) yuan/ton, and the production profit is positive (negative). The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to micron - sized lithium hydroxide has decreased. Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium hydroxide smelting capacity passed the sampling inspection of the first batch of products in May, and Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line before the end of 2025. The production volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in June may decrease (decrease for smelting, increase for causticizing) month - on - month, the inventory (of smelters and downstream) in June may increase (increase for smelters, decrease for downstream) month - on - month, and the export volume in June may increase month - on - month because the daily export profit is negative [38][40][49] Demand Side Downstream Products of Lithium - The monthly average production cost of Chinese iron phosphate is 11,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The production volume (inventory) of Chinese iron phosphate in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of Chinese iron phosphate lithium from different production processes is 32,000 - 41,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory of Chinese iron phosphate lithium factories has decreased compared with last week. The production volume of Chinese iron phosphate lithium (iron manganese phosphate lithium) in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [55][65][69] - The monthly production cost of producing nickel sulfate from MHP/high - grade nickel matte integration in Indonesia is 114,500/121,800 yuan/ton of nickel, and the production profit is positive. The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month. The production volume of Chinese cobalt - acid lithium in June may decrease month - on - month, and the production volume of Chinese manganese - acid lithium in June may increase month - on - month [4][72][74] - The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursor from externally purchased raw materials is 83,000 yuan/ton, and the production profit is negative. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursor in June may decrease month - on - month, and the export volume may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - type 5 - series ternary materials is 114,300 yuan/ton, and the production profit is negative. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has decreased compared with last week, which may lead to the month - on - month increase of the production volume of Chinese ternary materials in June [84][95][98] - The daily production profit of producing solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate from externally purchased lithium fluoride is negative. The production (export) volume of Chinese lithium hexafluorophosphate in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [104][106][108] Batteries and New - Energy Vehicles - The weekly production cost of various types of Chinese battery cells has decreased. The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage battery cells in June may increase (all increase) month - on - month, and the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power battery cells in June may increase (all increase) month - on - month. Zhejiang Jiaxing Aolifu Photovoltaic Technology's 2GWh iron phosphate lithium energy - storage battery manufacturing project in Heilongjiang may be put into production at the end of October 2025 [112][115][117] - The production (sales) volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [127][129]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price, with tight supplies of lead concentrates and waste batteries. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, while consumption is in the off - season, which is the biggest negative factor for the lead market. Considering the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.50% to 16,400 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic trading) decreased by 1.50% to 1,964 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic lead price basis and the LME lead price basis showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [13][18]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, with no obvious change in the supply - demand situation at the mine end, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of May 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [25]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased to 69% month - on - month. Some smelters in different regions had maintenance plans or production recovery situations [26][31]. - The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered showed certain changes in different regions, with a total output of 50,185 tons in the week ending May 30 [33]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials + Poor Demand, Low Operating Rate of Secondary Lead - As of May 30, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton. The profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises were - 570 yuan/ton and - 787 yuan/ton respectively [41][46]. - As of May 30, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 146,300 tons, and the finished product inventory was 20,900 tons. Due to losses, smelters held back goods, resulting in inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down [50]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 3.3 percentage points to 40% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 43,200 tons. However, due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, the probability of smelters suspending production and maintenance in the future increased [53]. 3.4 Decline in the Operating Rate of Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 79.45% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season consumption and holidays, the operating rate of batteries declined. Currently, the inventory of dealers has decreased, but they still maintain a cautious attitude and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [57]. 3.5 Closure of Import - Export Profit Windows - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 642.79 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Accumulation of Social Inventory - As of June 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 49,900 tons, an increase in inventory. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and month - end inventory checks, downstream purchases were weak, leading to the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory [72]. - As of May 30, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 46,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the LME inventory was 286,200 tons, also showing a decrease [75]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import and export, consumption, and inventory changes of primary lead and secondary lead from February 2024 to April 2025 [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively introduces the basic knowledge, production processes, and costs of palladium, aiming to help investors understand the palladium industry chain and potential trading strategies in the context of the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [6]. - Palladium has unique physical and chemical properties and high catalytic activity, making it widely used in high - tech, automotive, and electronic industries. It is regarded as a strategic metal by many countries [2]. - The production cost of palladium mainly includes mining, refining, and processing costs, and electricity cost is an important factor driving up the production cost in the coming months [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Palladium Metal Introduction - Palladium is a soft, silvery - white rare precious metal with a density of 12.023 g/cm³, a melting point of 1554 °C, and a boiling point of 2970 °C. It can be separated from the natural alloy of platinum - group metals [7]. - Palladium exists in two main forms: sponge palladium (over 80% production ratio, used in chemical and catalyst manufacturing) and palladium bars (used for storage and physical investment). The conversion cost between them is about $5 per ounce [10]. - According to national standards, palladium ingots and sponge palladium are classified into different grades based on palladium content [14][15]. - Palladium can be divided into pure palladium (purity > 99.95%, used in modern industries) and palladium alloys (made by alloying palladium with other metals, used in jewelry, watches, etc.) [18][19]. 3.2 Palladium Applications - In the automotive field, palladium is mainly used in gasoline - vehicle catalysts, while platinum is used in diesel, hybrid, and hydrogen - fuel vehicles. They complement each other in the catalyst field [23]. - Palladium has various applications in high - tech, chemical, medical, jewelry, and aerospace fields due to its unique properties [27][29]. - Different palladium alloys have different applications. For example, Pd - Au alloys are used in chemical vessels and electrical contacts; Pd - Ag alloys are used in optical instruments and electrical contacts [30]. 3.3 Palladium Production Processes 3.3.1 Mining and Refining of Palladium - The mining and refining of palladium is a long and complex process. It mainly comes from underground mines (400 - 2000 meters deep), and the content of platinum - group metals in ore is only 2 - 6 grams per ton [39]. - The process includes mining (underground or open - pit), concentration by froth flotation, smelting, and purification. After these steps, the concentration of 4E (platinum, palladium, rhodium, and gold) increases from 2 - 6 grams per ton of ore to 5000 grams per ton [40][41]. 3.3.2 Enrichment Methods of Platinum - Group Metals - There are several enrichment methods, including atomization - acid dissolution, alkali fusion - leaching, fragmentation - acid dissolution, oxygen blowing, and electrolysis. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages [44][45]. 3.3.3 Separation and Purification of Palladium - The separation and purification methods include electrolysis (simple operation, high purity, high energy consumption), chlorination (simple operation, high purity, environmental pollution), and dry - process manufacturing (simple operation, low energy consumption, low purity) [48][52][60]. 3.4 Palladium Extraction from Wastes - There are several methods for extracting palladium from waste palladium catalysts, such as roasting - leaching, ion exchange, and wet - process iron replacement. The optimal conditions for extracting palladium from waste palladium - carbon catalysts are determined, with a palladium recovery rate of up to 97% [62][73]. 3.5 Palladium Production Costs - The production cost of palladium mainly includes mining ($200 - 400 per ounce), refining ($350 - 650 per ounce), and processing ($150 - 250 per ounce) costs. Overall, it is usually about $1000 per ounce [75][78][79]. - In South Africa, the electricity price increase of 12.74% since April this year has led to a 7.2% increase in the production cost of the mining industry in April 2024, with the cost of platinum - group metals rising the most [78].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250604:短期反弹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 变化值 | 要你值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | | 2289.00 | 2275.00 | 14.00 | 0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | | 2231.00 | 2217.00 | 14.00 | 0.63% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | | 2225.00 | 2208.00 | 17.00 | 0.77% | | | | 元/吨 太仓 | | 2262.50 | 2242.50 | 20.00 | 0.89% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | | 2150.00 | 2150.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | | 2270.00 | 2267.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 及其差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recent continuous decline in urea prices is due to cost collapse from falling coal prices and lagging domestic agricultural demand caused by weather [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support urea prices, and the possibility of a significant further decline is low as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has decreased [1] - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, and mid - term strategy is to go long on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures price: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1696 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; UR05 at 1718 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; UR09 at 1761 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [1] - Domestic spot prices: prices in Shanxi, Henan, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Hebei, it rose 0.54% to 1860 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, while melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, with Shandong down 1.03% and Jiangsu down 1.80% [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1800 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1803 yuan/ton, a low of 1755 yuan/ton, closed at 1761 yuan/ton, and settled at 1774 yuan/ton, with a position of 231078 lots [1]