Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Although India issued a new round of tenders during the National Day, the domestic market reaction was limited due to export policy uncertainties. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high - supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, since the current urea valuation is low, it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 9, compared with September 30, UR01 dropped from 1670 yuan/ton to 1609 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton (-3.65%); UR05 dropped from 1717 yuan/ton to 1677 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.33%); UR09 dropped from 1742 yuan/ton to 1701 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton (-2.35%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Shandong, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton (-2.50%); in Shanxi, it dropped from 1490 yuan/ton to 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-2.01%); in Henan, it dropped from 1590 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.26%); in Hebei, it dropped from 1640 yuan/ton to 1620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Northeast China, it dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-1.21%); in Jiangsu, it dropped from 1600 yuan/ton to 1570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton (-1.88%) [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively. The compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong dropped from 2930 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton (-1.02%), and in Henan, it dropped from 2520 yuan/ton to 2500 yuan/ton (-0.79%). The melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. b) Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR remained unchanged at - 117 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread decreased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 68 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1]. c) Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 310689 lots [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The high inventory suppresses the spot price of methanol. In the short - term, the methanol price may be weakly volatile. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - MA01 decreased from 2328.00 yuan/ton on September 30, 2025, to 2290.00 yuan/ton on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 1.63%. MA05 decreased from 2362.00 yuan/ton to 2346.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. MA09 decreased from 2329.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - Among spot prices, prices in most regions decreased, except for Hubei which increased by 1.28% from 2340.00 yuan/ton to 2370.00 yuan/ton [1] 2. Methanol Basis and Related Prices - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from - 90.50 yuan/ton to - 80.00 yuan/ton [1] - Coal and natural gas prices were relatively stable, with slight decreases in some coal prices and no change in industrial natural gas prices [1] 3. Methanol Profit Situation - Coal - made methanol profit decreased from 334.80 yuan/ton to 324.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.99%. Natural gas - made methanol profit remained unchanged at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1] - MTO profit in the Northwest decreased by 55.86% from - 58.00 yuan/ton to - 90.40 yuan/ton, and in the East by 0.76% from - 590.07 yuan/ton to - 594.57 yuan/ton [1] - Among downstream products, the profit of acetic acid increased by 0.96%, MTBE by 4.94%, formaldehyde by 1.83%, and dimethyl ether by 4.29% [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fell, opening at 2321 yuan/ton, closing at 2290 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 545,698 lots and open interest of 999,972 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons restarted. Currently, all plants are operating, with only a few at low loads. The daily output is gradually increasing. The overall loading volume is around 243,000 tons, a decrease compared to the same period last month [1] 5. Market Logic and Strategy - Market logic: During the holiday, the methanol spot price dropped. High imports and blocked freight during the holiday led to high port inventory and supply pressure. The downstream's short - term restocking power was insufficient before the holiday, and the traditional downstream peak season is ending. The supply side's drive should be focused on in the fourth quarter [1] - Trading strategy: Wait and see [1]

| 铅锌日评20251010：震荡整理 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/10 指标 单位 今值 | | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 元/吨 16,800.00 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | | 0.00% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,115.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | | 1.03% | | | | 元/吨 -315.00 沪铅基差 | | | | | -175.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -10.00 | | | | | -10.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -29.64 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -68.30 | | | | | 7.66 5.90 | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -15.00 | 价差 | | | | 500.00 | | | | 元/吨 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 -20.00 | | | | | 25.00 | | | | 铅 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251010:低位震荡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-09-24 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | VMV | 收盘价 | 72680.00 | 840.00 | 近月合约 | 73580.00 | 72740.00 | | | 73340.00 | 72800.00 | 72880.00 | 540.00 | VM | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 73440.00 | 72860.00 | 72900.00 | 580.00 | VM | 连二合约 | | 73440.00 | 72860.00 | 72860.00 | 580.00 | VM | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 72880.00 | 540.00 | 73340.00 | 72800.00 | VVVV | | | 砖酸锂期 ...

| 甲醇日评20251010: 高库存压制现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | 指标 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/9/30 | 变化值 | 要化值 | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | MA01 | 2290.00 | 2328.00 | -38.00 | -1.63% | | 元/吨 | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 2346.00 | 2362.00 | -16.00 | -0.68% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) MA09 | 2320.00 | 2329.00 | -9.00 | -0.39% | | 元/呼 | 太仓 | 2210.00 | 2237.50 | -27.50 | -1.23% | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2330.00 | 2340.00 | -10.00 | -0.43% | | 元/吨 | 广东 期现价格 | 2222.50 | 2250.00 | -27.50 | -1.22% | | | 甲醇观赏价格 及基差 | | | | | | 元/吨 | ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251010：高位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 2025/10/10 指标 | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,300.00 0.00% | | | | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | | 8,640.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 660.00 | - | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 | | 51.05 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 元/吨 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 50,765.00 | -1.16% | | 基差 元/吨 | | 285.00 | 595.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,250.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 元/吨 | | 9,350.0 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the urea price dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not appear. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's reaction to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may not be able to absorb the high supply pressure, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, the current urea valuation is low, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a view score of 0 [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog A. Futures and Spot Prices - **Urea Futures Prices**: On October 9, UR01 closed at 1609 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 3.65% from September 30; UR05 closed at 1677 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.33%; UR09 closed at 1701 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan or 2.35% [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: On October 9, the prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1560, 1460, 1570, 1620, 1630, and 1570 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 (-2.50%), - 30 (-2.01%), - 20 (-1.26%), - 20 (-1.22%), - 20 (-1.21%), and - 30 (-1.88%) yuan compared to September 30 [1]. B. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 117 yuan/ton on October 9, unchanged from September 30. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 68 yuan/ton on October 9, down 21 yuan from September 30 [1]. C. Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 2900 and 2500 yuan/ton on October 9, down 30 (-1.02%) and 20 (-0.79%) yuan respectively compared to September 30. The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. D. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1648 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1648 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1604 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1609 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1619 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 310,689 lots [1].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250930: Low-level Fluctuation [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 97,757 lots (-65,749), and the open interest was 83,149 lots (-735). LME nickel rose 0.99%. The spot market trading was okay, and the basis premium narrowed. With weak rebound of non-ferrous metals following copper and weak nickel fundamentals and inventory pressure, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - On September 29, the main stainless steel contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume was 163,211 lots (-12,046), and the open interest was 87,251 lots (-11,471). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost - end and the inventory pressure is not significant, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Content Nickel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 120,820 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 121,560 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 121,270 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 121,440 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan [2]. - Shanghai silver futures trading volume on September 29 was 97,757 lots, a decrease of 65,749 lots from the previous day. The open interest of the active contract was 83,149 lots, a decrease of 735 lots [2]. Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price on September 29 was 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price was 123,175 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) average price was 121,200 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. - Nickel bean average price on September 29 was 123,325 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory on September 29 was 25,057 tons, a decrease of 96 tons from the previous day. LME nickel total inventory was 231,312 tons, an increase of 1,188 tons [2]. Stainless Steel Market Futures Market - Futures near - month contract closing price on September 29 was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from the previous day. Futures continuous - one contract closing price was 12,760 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. Futures continuous - two contract closing price was 12,785 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. Futures continuous - three contract closing price was 12,930 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2]. - Shanghai stainless steel futures active contract trading volume on September 29 was 163,271 lots, a decrease of 12,046 lots from the previous day. The open interest was 98,722 lots, a decrease of 11,471 lots [2]. Spot Market - 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price on September 29 was 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) average price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless steel inventory on September 29 was 87,148 tons, a decrease of 357 tons from the previous day. The 300 - series stainless steel social inventory last week was 596,200 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons [2]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol (MEG) price showed a weak trend this week due to weaker - than - expected demand and increased supply from new device launches. The supply - side pressure will continue to increase, and the supply - demand structure is expected to weaken, leading to a downward - trending market price. - Next week, the cost side may see oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical factors and cooling expectations. The supply side will face greater pressure as more capacity is set to restart than to be under maintenance in October. The demand side is expected to have a light sales performance during and after the holiday. Port inventory is likely to rise slightly in the short term. - Overall, MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main View - This week, MEG prices were weak. The reasons were weaker - than - expected demand and new device launches. In September, the downstream polyester and weaving industries had a slow start - up speed. There are still multiple new devices planned for trial runs and some long - shut - down devices are set to restart, increasing supply - side pressure. - Next week, on the cost side, geopolitical disturbances may boost oil prices, but cooling expectations could lead to a fluctuating oil price. On the supply side, more capacity will restart than be under maintenance in October. On the demand side, a 1.1 - million - ton polyester device in South China is restarting and ramping up, with no other major devices planned for restart or maintenance. Some downstream industries plan to reduce their loads during the holiday. In terms of port inventory, imports are expected to be concentrated around the National Day, and port shipments will decline during the holiday, so short - term port inventory may rise slightly. - MEG is expected to trade in the range of 4,150 - 4,300 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: New device launches suppressed the futures market. This week, the trading volume was 544,000 lots, and the open interest was 326,000 lots (a decrease of 31,000 lots). On September 29, the closing price of the MEG main contract was 4,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.38%. The settlement price on September 29 was 4,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from September 22, with a change of - 0.56% [8][11][13]. - **Spot Market**: The high - end spot price was 4,363 yuan/ton on September 22, and the low - end was 4,270 yuan/ton on September 23. In different regions, prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan decreased by 31 yuan/ton, 61.8 yuan/ton, and 31 yuan/ton respectively. The foreign - market price was 510.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The average basis this week was 81.25 yuan/ton, compared with 100 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with a spread of 85 - 110 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.3 MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: From September 24 - 29, the comprehensive MEG operating rate was 69.98%, compared with 70.80% from September 17 - 23. The operating rates of petroleum - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were 74.39%, 63.49%, and 62.43% respectively. During the week, the Zhonghai Shell device returned to normal after a short - term load fluctuation due to an upstream device failure, and the Fujian United and Sanjiang devices adjusted their loads slightly [19][22][24]. - **Production Profit**: The price of thermal coal increased slightly, while the MEG spot price continued to weaken. This week, the profit of coal - based MEG was further compressed. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production were - 1,532.58 yuan/ton, 295.13 yuan/ton, and - 128.15 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,495.10 yuan/ton, 354.69 yuan/ton, and - 139 US dollars/ton in the previous period [31][33]. - **Port Inventory**: There will be many foreign - market arrivals during the holiday, and large ships from Canada and Saudi Arabia will arrive at the port in a concentrated manner. It is expected that the MEG port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. As of September 25, the MEG port inventory was 398,500 tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a month - on - month change of 8.53%. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang, Jiangyin, Taicang, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Changshu changed by 14,300 tons, - 2,000 tons, 10,000 tons, 11,000 tons, and - 4,000 tons respectively [35][37]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The slow progress of the Iran nuclear negotiations poses potential support to the oil market due to geopolitical and supply risks [43]. - **Supply and Demand of Downstream Products**: - The average weekly load of polyester factories was 88.35%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.49%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.63%, 1.26%, and 2.23% respectively. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market decreased by 0.82%, and the average price of polyester bottle chips in the East China region decreased by 0.84%. - As the long holiday approaches, the sentiment of the polyester downstream has changed, leading to an increase in procurement and polyester sales. From September 22 - 28, the average weekly polyester sales were estimated to be over 70%. - Due to polyester promotions, downstream enterprises stocked up, and the inventory of polyester filament decreased this week. As of September 25, the average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 18.80 days, 25.70 days, and 29.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber remained stable, and the inventory days of polyester chips decreased by 0.69 days [47][56][60].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and fiscal easing in multiple countries, along with production disruptions in overseas copper mines leading to a tight supply - demand outlook, may make the price of Shanghai copper more likely to rise than fall [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the closing price was 82370 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 138460 lots, a decrease of 36165 lots; open interest was 213792 lots, a reduction of 15258 lots; inventory was 25603 tons, down 954 tons. The spot - futures basis and various copper price differentials also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 29, 2025, was 10428.5 US dollars, up 223.5 US dollars from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month and 3 - 15 - month contract spreads had positive changes [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 29, 2025, was 4.906 US dollars, an increase of 0.12 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 323207 tons, up 2151 tons [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: Disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have led to a negative China copper concentrate import index, which has increased compared to last week. This has tightened the supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates are trending down, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October has increased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand Side**: With the significant increase in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 78000 - 81000 yuan and the resistance level around 83000 - 86000 yuan for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9800 - 10000 US dollars and the resistance level around 10500 - 10800 US dollars for London copper, the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for COMEX copper [2].