| 贵金属日评20250728:美欧达成关税贸易协议,美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-24 | 收盘价 | 777.32 | 778.74 | 781.70 | -4. 38 | -1. 42 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 190255.00 | -25, 933.00 | 216188.00 | -140, 962. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 213456.00 | 211239.00 | 211851.00 | -1, 605. 00 | 612. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358. 00 | 28857.00 | 1, 401. 00 | 30258.00 | 900. 00 | 上海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - **PX**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - **PR**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - **Device Information**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - **Industry Operating Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **PX**: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250728:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124210.00 | 124160.00 | 120500.00 | 50.00 | | | | | | | | | | 期货连一合约 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120580.00 | 0.00 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 120670.00 | -30.00 | 124490.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 124660.00 | 124710.00 | 120790.00 | -50.00 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120500. ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250728: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/7/25 | 2025/7/24 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | (絕对圓) | (相对值) | | MA01 | | 元/吨 | 2587.00 | 2550.00 | 37.00 | 1.45% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | | 元/吨 | 2504.00 | 2473.00 | 31.00 | 1.25% | | (收盘价) MA09 | | 元/吨 | 2519.00 | 2480.00 | 39.00 | 1.57% | | 太仓 | | 元/吨 | 2487.50 | 2460.00 | 27.50 | 1.12% | | 山东 | | 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2300.00 | 40.00 | 1.74% | | 广东 期现价格 | | 元/吨 | 2460.00 | 2440.00 | 20.00 | 0.82% | | 甲醇规赏价格 及基差 陕西 (日度均 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. Due to the warm domestic market sentiment, lead prices are expected to trade in a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season with continuous inventory accumulation, resulting in a weak fundamental situation. However, strong market bullish sentiment may lead to zinc prices trading in a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 16,955 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,020.50 dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The ratio of Shanghai - London lead prices was 8.39, up 0.51% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 63.37%, a 2.5 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 40.7%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 71.86%, a 0.9 - percentage - point increase. The electric bicycle trade - in program has boosted the industry, with a 113.5% average monthly - on - month increase in sales from January to June 2025, and a 27.6% year - on - year increase in the production of the top ten brands [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment - related maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For recycled lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and some smelters have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. As the inventory of electrolytic lead in factories decreases, the market's acceptance of high - priced recycled lead has improved. The market still anticipates peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases at the end of the month for inventory checks [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On July 28, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,700 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 22,885 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,829.00 dollars/ton, down 0.40%. The ratio of Shanghai - London zinc prices was 8.09, down 0.16% [1]. - **Industry Operation Data**: From July 18 to July 24, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 59.42%, a 0.30 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.03%, a 0.92 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 55.99%, a 0.33 - percentage - point decrease. The total inventory of zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 35.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.6 million tons from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic smelters are negotiating next - month's zinc processing fees, and it is expected that processing fees will continue to rise in August. With the continuous strength of zinc prices during the week, downstream off - season purchases have significantly decreased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On July 25, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during the session. The spot market trading was light, and the basis discount widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In June, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production schedule of ternary materials rose, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipment volume was average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. The registered warehouse receipts increased, the smelter destocked, and the downstream and other inventories increased. The "anti - involution" sentiment continued, with a large divergence between spot buyers and sellers. The high - grade products tumbled after leading the rise on Friday night. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options (View score: - 1) [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,400 yuan/ton, the continuous first contract was 80,520 yuan/ton, the continuous second contract was 79,160 yuan/ton, and the continuous third contract was 80,520 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 1,203,424 hands (- 566,859), and the open interest was 491,088 hands (+ 54,361) [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 10,239 tons [1] - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and the continuous first contract was - 1,120 yuan/ton, the spread between the continuous first and the continuous second contract was 1,360 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous second and the continuous third contract was 0 yuan/ton. The basis was - 3,310 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,700 yuan/ton, the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) was 63,120 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder type) was 65,670 yuan/ton [1] - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 711 US dollars/ton, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 945 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,790 yuan/ton [1] - **Other Materials**: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 75,505 yuan/ton, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,255 yuan/ton, and the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) was 220,400 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU, including a 15% tariff on the EU, 600 billion US dollars of investment in the US by the EU, 0 tariffs on the US by EU countries, the EU's purchase of US military equipment, and the purchase of US energy products worth 750 billion US dollars [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that from the trading time on July 28, 2025, non - futures company members or clients' single - day opening volume on the lithium carbonate futures LC2509 contract shall not exceed 3,000 hands [1] 3.4 Inventory Data - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The smelter inventory was 40,765 tons, the downstream inventory was 55,385 tons, other inventory was 41,430 tons, and the total inventory was 140,793 tons [1]

| 镍与不锈钢日评20250728:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124210.00 | 124160.00 | 120500.00 | 50.00 | | | | | | | | | | 期货连一合约 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120580.00 | 0.00 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 120670.00 | -30.00 | 124490.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 124660.00 | 124710.00 | 120790.00 | -50.00 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120500. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - After the previous trading day, UR fluctuated upwards and closed at 1803. On Friday night, coking coal prices dropped and hit the daily limit. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and urea prices may experience a compensatory decline today. Fundamentally, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. In terms of demand, the top - dressing demand in July will still support prices, but once domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may fluctuate repeatedly, and it is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: - 1) [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 25, compared with July 24, UR01 in Shandong increased by 11 yuan/ton (0.61%), UR01 in Shanxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.10%), UR05 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.00%), and UR09 increased by 18 yuan/ton (1.01%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Henan, small - particle urea decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Hebei and Northeast, there was no change; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, as well as the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu, remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 38 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 7 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - In the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1786 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1813 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1803 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1798 yuan/ton. The holding volume of 2509 was 171,609 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The passage of the stablecoin - related bill in the US and the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut, along with disruptions in copper mine production or transportation overseas and a decline in China's electrolytic copper social inventory, could lead to price adjustments in Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on specific support and pressure levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,250 yuan, down 640 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,147 lots, an increase of 14,228 lots; the open interest was 180,830 lots, down 666 lots; the inventory was 16,133 tons, down 50 tons; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,450 yuan, down 345 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 200 yuan, up 295 yuan from the previous day. Different regional spot premiums and discounts and spreads between different - month contracts showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 25, 2025, was 9,796, down 58.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease from 128,475 the previous day. There were also changes in different contract spreads and the Shanghai - London copper price ratio [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 25, 2025, was 5.804, down 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory weight was 248,635, an increase of 3,127 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Mine Incidents**: Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a tunnel collapse in the non - production project's underground working area, with three workers trapped. Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli operation in Azerbaijan increased copper concentrate production, while Russian Mornickel lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Other mines also had various incidents and production adjustments [2][3]. - **Mine Closures and Expansions**: Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with about 500 people affected. Some mines, such as the Miraado copper mine in Ecuador and the Julong copper mine in China, have expansion plans [2][3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic and Policy News - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. US consumer - end inflation (CPI) increased in June due to import tariffs. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate - cut in September increased but decreased in December [2][3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on support and pressure levels: for Shanghai copper, 76,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, 5.0 - 5.2 and 6.0 - 7.0 [3].

Commodity Price Information - The current price of crude oil is $580.50 per ton, with a previous value of $576.13, showing an increase of 0.6% [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene price index remains unchanged at $821.00 per ton [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in the East China region is $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol is $2462.50 per ton, unchanged [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton, unchanged [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity is $4529.00 per ton, up 1.34% from the previous value; the closing price of the nearby contract is $4226.00 per ton [1] - The price index of domestic ethylene glycol in the inner market is $4580.00 per ton, up 0.88% from the previous value of $4540.00 [1] - The nearby - far month price difference is $303.00 per ton, with a change of -$60.00; the basis difference is $50.00 per ton, with a change of -$0.00 [1] Production and Operation Data - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol production is 58.98%, and the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol production is 94.62% [1] - The load rate of the PTA industry chain is 80.18%, and the load rate of the textile machinery industry in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industry chain is 58.63% [1] External Market and Profit Data - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol is $828.92 per ton [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain production method is $1687.46 per ton, with a change of -$46.31 compared to the previous value [1] Price Index Data - The price index of polyester is $8600.00 per ton, unchanged; the price index of polyester staple fiber is $6600.00 per ton, down 2.3% compared to the previous value of $6800.00; the price index of bottle - grade chips is $6080.00 per ton, up 1.2% compared to the previous value of $6005.00 [1] - The price of polyester is $7125.00 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $7100.00 [1]