| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment continues, with significant differences between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volume Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500 yuan/ton, 76,680 yuan/ton, 75,000 yuan/ton, and 75,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180 yuan/ton, 7,300 yuan/ton, 6,380 yuan/ton, and 6,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283 lots, an increase of 436,124 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 436,727 lots, an increase of 74,673 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, such as the near - month - continuous - one spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - one - continuous - two spread increased by 920 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related downstream products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 70,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Market News - The draft of the price law amendment is open for public comments to regulate market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2] - On July 24, Argentina's economic minister approved Galan Lithium's $217 million lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI, and the total planned expenditure under this system reached $12.8 billion [2] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2] - Demand: In June, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production scheduling of ternary materials increased, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production scheduling of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June [2] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 tons (+900 tons), the social inventory increased, the smelters reduced inventory, and the downstream and other inventories were tight [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1]. 2. Report's Core View The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol, but believes that short - term policy expectations outweigh the impact of fundamentals. It suggests investors to stay on the sidelines for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. Also, the high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises will likely lead to continued destocking, which will suppress the spot price in East China [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 increased from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 climbed from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhootes Q5500 rose from 450 yuan/ton to 452.5 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 507.5 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase. The price of Datong Q5500 remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO and Yiquge remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88%, and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23%. The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73% [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2417 yuan/ton, closing at 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,252,918 lots and an open interest of 632,187 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The loading speed at the port is expected to improve in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term policy expectation has a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than the fundamentals. The supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure when domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 closed at 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 closed at 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton, with a high of 1796 yuan/ton, a low of 1768 yuan/ton, and closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1782 yuan/ton, and a position of 173,791 lots [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In most regions, domestic small - particle urea spot prices decreased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Henan, from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton (-1.08%); in Hebei, from 1800 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton (-1.11%); in Jiangsu, from 1840 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). The price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi and downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 24 compared to July 23 [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton on July 23 to 6 yuan/ton on July 24, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 14 yuan/ton on July 23 to - 8 yuan/ton on July 24, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply pressure of urea is large, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, which is at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 750,000 tons, although the enterprise inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly due to the increase in port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

沪铜日评20250725:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量初现下降 | | 变量名称 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-16 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 79890 | 06866 | 77980 | 300.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 161652 | 85686 | 60926 | -11,767.00 - | | | | 持仓量(手) | 181496 | 172895 | 160457 | 8, 601. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 16183 | 15535 | 50242 | 648.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 79795 | 79790 | 78060 | 5.00 - | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜县差 | -95 | 200 | 80 | -295.00 --- | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -10 | -10 | 60 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Natural Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15,245, a change of 240 from the previous day. The trading volume was 522,391 lots, and the open interest was 210,844 lots. The registered warrant volume was 186,680, a decrease of 20 from the previous day. The natural rubber basis was - 270, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [1]. 2. Market Data of Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12,285, an increase of 410 from the previous day. The trading volume was 148,642 lots, and the open interest was 48,828 lots. The registered warrant volume was 9,840, unchanged from the previous day. The synthetic rubber basis was - 535, a decrease of 343.33 from the previous day [1]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber - producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be stable with less precipitation, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, an increase of 3.21% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. 4. Inventory - side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212,920 tons, a decrease of 670 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 91,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from last week. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12,796 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week [1]. 5. Cost - side Situation - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapped. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15,600 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan per ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased [1]. 6. Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week, and that of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The tire matching demand has increased [1]. 7. Price Support and Pressure Levels - For natural rubber, pay attention to the support level around 14,000 - 14,200 and the pressure level around 16,000 - 16,300. For butadiene, pay attention to the support level around 11,300 - 11,600 and the pressure level around 12,600 - 12,800 [1].

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| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/24 2025/7/24 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 66.03 69.18 | 65.25 68.51 | 1.20% 0.98% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/23 | 美元/吨 | 567.38 | 566.38 | 0.18% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/23 | | 美元/吨 | 705.50 | 715.50 | -1.40% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/24 | 美元/吨 | 856.00 | 841.67 | 1.70% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/24 | 元/吨 | 4850.00 | 4784.00 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily review of lead and zinc markets on July 25, 2025, focusing on price movements, market fundamentals, and industry news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are expected to move in a range in the short - term due to a balanced supply - demand situation, tight raw materials, and expectations of the peak consumption season [1] - Zinc prices are also expected to move in a range in the short - term. Despite weak fundamentals with increased supply of ore and ingots and low demand in the off - season, strong market sentiment may support prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Movements - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,810 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 23,015 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [1] Market Fundamentals - Lead - A lead smelter in North China is expected to fully resume production next week after a regular maintenance. Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead smelters decreased slightly due to equipment failure, and the start - up rate of secondary lead smelters is low due to high raw material costs. Demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [1] Market Fundamentals - Zinc - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is increasing, but demand is in the off - season, and overall procurement is limited [1] Industry News - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate output. Teck Resources' Red Dog mine had a slight decline in zinc concentrate output in Q2 2025 due to lower ore grades, and lead concentrate output remained stable. The company expects to release inventory in Q3 [1] Trading Data - For lead, futures active contract volume decreased by 33.89% to 46,419 lots, and open interest increased by 12.40% to 69,992 lots. LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% to 59,959 tons. For zinc, futures active contract volume decreased by 12.43% to 152,003 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.14% to 134,935 lots. LME zinc inventory was 116,900 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 1.24% to 11,940 tons [1]