2025年10月13日 有色金属周报-氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金 中美可能再次互征关税担忧或使铝价承压 宏源期货 金属研究团队 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472），TEL：021-51801878 董晓妮 （从业资格证号：F0287405， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0017234），TEL：0531-89015080 张 蕾 （从业资格证号：F03086068，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019377），TEL：0512-68261540 氧化铝 清镇市铝土矿循环利用项目一期50万吨高硫铝土矿脱硫6月启动投料生产铝精矿44万吨/年，吕梁矿业 旗下杨家沟铝土矿(年产能为60万吨，地下采矿)于8月底投产，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比升 高(下降)，或使国内铝土矿10月生产(进口)量环比增加(减少)； 壹石通的重庆年产9,800吨导热用球形氧化铝项目或于25年9月底正式投产，广西防城港25年3月开始建 设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝10月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝较电解铝9 月运行产能过剩量环比扩大； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目 ...

Report Title - **Title**: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] - **Date**: October 13, 2025 [2] - **Author**: Qi Yurong [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current domestic zinc market has no substantial improvement in demand, while the supply remains loose. The fundamental situation maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - sentiment disturbances, zinc prices may face pressure. Considering the continuous inventory reduction of LME zinc and the deepening of the back structure, the downward space of SHFE zinc may be limited under the boost of the external market. The operating range is expected to be between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 2.16% to 22,230 yuan/ton, SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.04% to 22,270 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.95% to 2,984.5 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents historical data on basis, LME zinc spread (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange - rate impact), as well as various spot spreads and inter - month spreads [13][15]. 2. Raw Material and Refining 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 339,300 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [20]. - **Profit**: As of October 9, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,006 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 30.60% [27]. - **TC**: Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. The CZSPT small group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [3][20]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Profit**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of October 9, the production profit was - 436 yuan/ton [38]. - **Production**: In September, the domestic refined zinc output was 600,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [38]. - **Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of October 10, the import profit of refined zinc was - 3,967.74 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,500 tons [41]. 3. Downstream Consumption - Galvanizing - **Operating Rate**: The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.83 percentage points to 46.83%. Affected by the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the operating rate declined, and terminal demand was still below expectations [49]. - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of point - priced goods during the holidays, while finished - product inventory decreased as some enterprises still shipped goods despite the decline in operating rate [52]. 4. Downstream Consumption - Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased by 2.09% and 2.04% respectively [59]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy decreased by 0.35 percentage points to 46.51%. Some enterprises were still on holiday, and terminal orders had no substantial improvement [62]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased due to the arrival of long - term orders, and finished - product inventory decreased as some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [65]. 5. Downstream Consumption - Zinc Oxide - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) increased by 1.9% to 21,400 yuan/ton [72]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 1.24 percentage points to 56.08%. Some large enterprises were on holiday, but some downstream enterprises restocked after the festival [75]. - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased as some enterprises on holiday converted raw materials into finished products, and finished - product inventory increased slightly [78]. 6. Inventory - **Social Inventory**: As of October 9, the three - place inventory of SMM zinc ingots was 141,400 tons, an increase in inventory. The inventory in the bonded area was 8,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [86]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of October 10, the SHFE inventory was 106,950 tons, an increase, and the LME inventory was 37,950 tons, a continuous decrease [89]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance table from April 2024 to July 2025, showing the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of each month [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy: Wait and see [5][90] - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 [5][90] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Supply contraction expectations are weakening, supply is at a high level, and downstream buyers after the holiday still mainly adopt a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the driving force brought by the inflection point of downstream inventory replenishment [6][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis has a premium of 810 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; China's lithium mica production was 8,150 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2% [14] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [18] - In July, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [22] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] 1.2 Supply Side - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,635 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.8% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5% [30] - In September, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [32] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8% - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month - on - month increase of 354.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.6% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 84,467 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% - In September, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 68%, and the output was 311,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 59% [42] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,976 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [48] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% - In August, the export volume increased [53] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [54] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30% - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 37.8% - In August, the installed capacity of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.8% and a year - on - year increase of 32.4% [65] 1.4 Terminal Demand - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8% [68] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy - storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1% - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month - on - month increase of 14.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.5% [73] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of Chinese smartphones was 10.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4% - In August, the production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 2.769 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [76] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 19 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 45 yuan/ton [81] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,024 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory increased by 1,255 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 1,128 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,150 tons [86] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,562 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 47 tons [87] 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Wait and see - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 - Logic: The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, the production of lithium spodumene increases slightly, and the import volume of lithium ore decreases. The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, the import volume of lithium salts increases, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile declines seasonally, and the recycling end maintains growth. New energy vehicles grow steadily, the production of cathodes is stable, the production of battery cells rises, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increases, and the inventory of ternary materials decreases. The production and winning bid scale of energy - storage batteries increase. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decline. The overall inventory decreases, the smelter's inventory increases, and the downstream and other inventories decrease. [90][91]

| | 545698手,持仓999972,放量增仓; | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 国外资讯: 据章创资讯,美国财政部海外资产控制办公室(OFAC)新增13家中国企 | | | 业SDN列名，并且同期制裁多艘船舶，其中7艘为经常往返于中东的船舶，加上之前 | | | 已经被制裁的4艘，截至目前11艘船舶被美国国务院制裁,占到总体中东某国运力的 | | | 12%附近。 | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | 假期期间甲醇现货价格走低,节后受制裁影响沿海甲醇价格有所反弹但幅度有限,目 | | | 前供给端压力仍存，进口维持高位加上假期货运受阻，港口库存仍维持高位，需求方 | | 小结 | 面节前甲醇下游短期补库动力不足，难拉动甲醇价格上涨，传统下游旺季也即将过 | | | 去,后续四季度仍关注供应端的驱动。短期甲醇价格或低位震荡。 | | | (交易策略) | | | 观望。 | | | (观点评分:0) | | | 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的 信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut and the expectation of fiscal easing in many countries, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices due to concerns about whether the Sino - US trade conflict can be alleviated [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Shanghai Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper contract was 85,910, down 840 from the previous day; trading volume was 212,468 lots, an increase of 74,652; open interest was 216,115 lots, a decrease of 5,600; inventory was 29,964 tons, an increase of 261; the Shanghai copper basis was 770, an increase of 1,780 [1] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,680, up 940 from the previous day [1] London Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,374, down 402.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 31.19, down 6.29; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 74.2, down 19.97 [1] COMEX Copper - On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper contract was 4.845, down 0.24 from the previous day; total inventory was 339,525, an increase of 4,004 [1] Group 4: Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis Supply - There are production disruptions in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, causing the China copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates; the expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to an initial increase in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [1] Demand - High copper prices have led downstream buyers to mainly make purchases based on rigid demand [1] Inventory - China's electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory has decreased compared to last week, and COMEX copper inventory has increased compared to last week [1] Group 5: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].

| 贵金属日评20251013: 美国贸易政策不确定性或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-10 | 收盘价 | -12. 76 | 901.56 | 914. 32 | 45. 50 | 856. 06 | | | | | 成交重 | 164. 136.00 | 434566.00 | 270430.00 | 238, 425. 00 | 196141.00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓重 | 238522. 00 | 251137.00 | -12, 615. 00 | -25, 783. 00 | 264305.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 70728.00 | 70728.00 | 65826. 00 | 0. 00 | 4, 902. 00 | 上海黄金 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side still shows a certain increase, the improvement on the demand side is limited, the industrial silicon remains in an oversupply situation, and the silicon price will continue to be under pressure due to macro - sentiment disturbances. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply - side disturbances are still fluctuating, the polysilicon price is consolidating at a high level. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is great pressure for the spot price to rise further, which may suppress the futures market. [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.52% to 8,685 yuan/ton. [1] - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 and oxygenated 553 in different regions (Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, Sichuan) remained unchanged. [1] Inventory and Production - On October 9, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 545,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with before the National Day. [1] - In September 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 420,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,100 tons (9.1%) and a year - on - year decrease of 33,300 tons (7.3%). From January to September 2025, the cumulative output was 3.0177 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. In October, the total planned production is expected to increase by 8.5% month - on - month. [1] Supply and Demand - In October, the southwest production area will gradually enter the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply side will tighten. [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an output increase in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited. [1] Investment Strategy - Keep holding out - of - the - money put options. [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re -投料, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged, while the closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.55% to 48,965 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production cuts, and some may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly. [1] - On the demand side, the market transactions during the National Day were light, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October. [1] Investment Strategy - Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips with a light position. [1] Other Products - For silicon wafers, the prices of N - type 210mm, N - type 210R, and N - type 183mm remained unchanged. [1] - For battery cells, the price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained unchanged. [1] - For components, the prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided and double - sided, 182mm and 210mm) remained unchanged. [1] - For organic silicon, the price of DMC remained unchanged at 11,050 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased 3.14% to 11,500 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil remained unchanged at 12,850 yuan/ton. [1]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - After the holiday, urea prices dropped significantly. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) did not materialize. Due to the uncertainty of export policies, the domestic market's response to India's new tender during the National Day was limited. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the current low valuation of urea, short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: On October 10, UR01 in Shandong was 1597 yuan/ton (-0.75% compared to October 9), in Shanxi was 1540 yuan/ton (-0.65%), UR05 was 1666 yuan/ton (-0.66%), and UR09 was 1702 yuan/ton (+0.06%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, it was 1530 yuan/ton (-0.65%); in Hebei, 1600 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Northeast China, 1630 yuan/ton (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 1550 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 126 yuan/ton (+1 yuan compared to October 9), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 69 yuan/ton (-1 yuan) [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1612 yuan/ton, the highest was 1614 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1593 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1601 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 338,864 lots [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, oil prices may continue the weak and volatile market due to the pressure of production increase and the expectation of easing in the Middle East situation. After the holiday, domestic oil prices opened lower to make up for the decline and continued to decline weakly on Friday. The domestic SC was weaker than the external market due to inventory pressure [4][75]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of macro - economic improvement. Crude oil may benefit as an asset choice for hedging inflation and de - dollarization, and the bullish sentiment is expected to improve [4][75]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Oil prices fluctuated during the holiday**: Oil prices were affected by production increase and the expectation of geopolitical easing. OPEC+ continued to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, less than market rumors. After October 6, prices rebounded, but geopolitical premiums declined due to the expected easing in the Middle East. As of October 9, WTI closed at $61.52 per barrel, Brent at $65.23 per barrel; as of October 10, SC closed at 461.9 yuan per barrel [4][9][75]. - **Inter - monthly spreads fluctuated weakly**: The inter - monthly spreads showed a weak and volatile trend [11]. - **WTI fund net long positions were at a low level**: As of the week ending September 30, Brent's net long positions were 202,480 lots, a decrease of 9,903 lots from the previous week. As of the week ending September 23, WTI's net long positions were 26,483 lots, a decrease of 10,316 lots from the previous week. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 412 lots, diesel by 3,200 lots, and heating oil decreased by 2,483 lots [16]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: The actual production increase rate was lower than the planned rate. In the planned production of the eight major countries from May to August, there was a difference of about 150,000 barrels per day between the planned and actual production in July and August. The actual monthly incremental production was different from the planned values. This gap was based on Kazakhstan's over - production. If Kazakhstan was also restricted by the production cut compensation plan, OPEC+'s actual production increase might be further revised down. On October 5, OPEC+ chose a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day, and its future production increase might depend on market stability and oil price performance [21][25][30]. - **United States**: The daily crude oil production was oscillating at a high level. The production increase ability was limited due to the previous low oil prices and uncertain future demand. Institutions had revised down the production increase expectations for US shale oil. When WTI was between $55 - 65 per barrel, it was difficult to see a significant increase in shale oil production, and below $55 per barrel, production might decline slightly [31][35]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The overall demand for refined oil rebounded, with distillate demand performing better than gasoline. As of the week ending October 3, the demand for gasoline, distillate, and aviation kerosene showed different trends, and the total demand for petroleum products increased. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel were at a neutral level, and refinery profits were moderately high. The refinery utilization rate was 92.4% as of the week ending October 3, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and 5.7 percentage points from the same period last year [36][45][49]. - **China**: The demand was better than expected. From June to August, the crude oil processing volume and refined oil production increased year - on - year. The main refineries had a significant increase in operation since June and remained at a high level, while local refineries had only a certain improvement in operation [55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: Crude oil had a slight inventory build - up, mainly due to increased domestic supply and net imports, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the week ending October 3, the crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week. The SPR inventory was 406.985 million barrels, an increase of 285,000 barrels from the previous week. The Cushing area's inventory decreased by 770,000 barrels from the previous week. In the refined oil market, there was a slight inventory drawdown due to improved demand [61][62][67]. - **OECD**: The surplus pressure was gradually increasing. With OPEC+'s production increase, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased, and the OECD continued to build up inventory. In September 2025, the global monthly supply - demand gap was 3.88 million barrels per day, and the OECD's inventory at the end of September was 2.878 billion barrels, an increase of 39 million barrels from the previous month [71].