Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - Urea prices have been oscillating at a low level recently, and the spot market remains dull. The potential upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, the current urea valuation is at a low level, and short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see (viewpoint score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, UR01 in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 was 1675 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.18%; UR09 was 1708 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. In Shandong, it was 1550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Henan, it remained unchanged at 1550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: In Hebei, it was 1580 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.63%; in the Northeast and Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton and 1560 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite price in Henan was 1030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 3.00%; in Shanxi, it remained unchanged at 880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged at 5067 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 125 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [1]. 3.3. Important Information - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 366 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was 402 US dollars/ton on the west coast and 395 US dollars/ton on the east coast. In September 2025, urea imports were 76.08 tons, a 2.01% month - on - month decrease; from January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1977.06 tons, a 49.06% year - on - year decrease. In September, urea exports were 137.12 million tons, a 72.12% month - on - month increase; from January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 281.23 million tons, a 1007.70% year - on - year increase [1].

| | | 甲醇日评20251021:做多仍需等待 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | | 指标 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/17 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | | MA01 | 2266.00 | 2272.00 | -6.00 | -0.26% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 2292.00 | 2290.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) | MA09 | 2257.00 | 2249.00 | 8.00 | 0.36% | | 元/吨 | | 太仓 | 2265.00 | 2267.50 | -2.50 | -0.11% | | 元/吨 | | 山东 | 2305.00 | 2305.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 期现价格 | 广东 | 2257.50 | 2255.00 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 元/吨 | 甲醇观赏价格 及其差 | 陕西 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there was no significant increase in market purchases after the zinc price weakened last week. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand. However, the macro - level risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and with the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the existence of overseas structural risks, Shanghai zinc has stabilized. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price dropped 2.02% to 21,780 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price fell 2.04% to 21,815 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined 1.41% to 2,942.5 dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Raw Material End - As of October 17, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 380,600 tons, an increase of 41,300 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 dollars/dry ton [25]. - As of October 16, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,980 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a 6.81% month - on - month decrease and a 30.60% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a 43.06% cumulative year - on - year increase [31]. - Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. On October 17, 2025, domestic TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 118.75 dollars/dry ton [35]. 3.3 Supply End - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has declined but remains considerable. As of October 16, the production profit was - 630 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons [41]. - The import profit window is closed. As of October 17, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,529.70 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a decrease of 31,500 tons year - on - year [44]. 3.4 Demand End 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.22 percentage points to 58.05%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased [52][55]. 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 1.96% and 1.92% respectively. The operating rate increased by 8.12 percentage points to 54.63%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [64][67][71]. 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.47% to 21,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 57.13%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased slightly [77][80][83]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,100 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [91]. - As of October 17, the SHFE inventory was 109,600 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 38,000 tons, showing a continuous decline [94]. 3.6 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From August 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus, with 51,000 tons in August, 28,000 tons in July, and 23,900 tons in June [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 [5][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 3.56%. The trading volume reached 1.41 million lots (+750,000), and the open interest reached 159,000 lots (-62,900). The basis was at a discount of 2,350 yuan/ton [7][8] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In September, China's spodumene production was 6,800 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%; China's lepidolite production was 8,150 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 9.2% [12] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% [16] - In August, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China increased to 128,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [20] Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [23] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [28] - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month-on-month increase of 57.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [28] - In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% [30] Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the production was 27,020 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [37] - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month-on-month increase of 354.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.6% [37] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 85,039 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [41] - In October, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 329,270 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 58% [41] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 17,247 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [47] - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [47] Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the production was 90,540 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [52] - In August, the export volume increased [52] Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 12,124 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [53] - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the production was 12,880 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 72% [53] Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [61] - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [61] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [65] - In September, the installed capacity of power batteries was 76 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 21.6% and a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [65] New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [68] - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.604 million, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [68] Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [72] - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [72] Consumer Electronics - In August, China's smartphone production was 10.04 million units, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [75] - In August, China's production of microelectronic computers was 2.769 million units, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [75] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore rebounded. The price of 6% spodumene concentrate increased by 7 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite increased by 15 yuan/ton [80] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,143 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 464 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 2,030 tons, and other inventories increased by 350 tons [85] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons [86] 1.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000. The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices declined during the week due to lack of cost support. International oil prices dropped continuously because of signs of easing geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic PX开工 was at a high level for the year, and although there was a fire at a South Korean refinery, the PX device was not affected. Downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a price decline under weak cost and fundamentals [9]. - PTA prices also fell during the week due to the lack of cost support and the expectation of new device commissioning. The weakness of crude oil and PX negatively affected the PTA market sentiment. The potential trial - run of 2.7 million tons of new PTA production capacity in East China would increase the supply pressure. Although downstream开工 increased driven by the demand for warm - keeping products, the subsequent upward space was limited, and the fundamental boost to PTA was weakening [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices will fluctuate within a narrow range, waiting for the follow - up development of Sino - US trade issues. - For PX, due to sanctions, trade wars and other factors, the short - term production of some factories may be affected, thus affecting PX supply, but the overall开工 will remain at a high level. - For PTA, PTA factories have not further reduced production even under low - efficiency conditions, and the expectation of new device commissioning in East China suppresses market sentiment. It is expected that the开工 will remain at a high level. - For polyester, the polyester开工 load will be generally stable, and there are no planned start - up or shutdowns of polyester devices. At the end of the traditional peak demand season, it is estimated that polyester factories will not actively reduce production to maintain market share. - For the weaving industry, foreign customers are conservative in placing orders due to uncertain factors, resulting in slow placement of recent export orders. Domestic demand has increased, but factories are not optimistic about the subsequent market. - Overall, PX will operate weakly in the range of 6,150 - 6,350 yuan/ton; PTA will also operate weakly in the range of 4,300 - 4,500 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **Futures**: On October 17, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,292 yuan/ton, down 212 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.26%. The settlement price on October 17 was 6,334 yuan/ton, down 198 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 3.03% [14]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were acceptable, with a differentiated trend in the paper - spot market. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 131 yuan/ton; the average domestic PX spot price was 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.50 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.97% [15][17]. 3.1.2 PTA - **Futures**: The price decline was dominated by cost. On October 17, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,402 yuan/ton, down 132 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.91%. The settlement price on October 17 was 4,424 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from October 10, a change of - 2.85% [19][21]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere was average, mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There was concentrated trading on Friday, with an average daily trading volume of about 2 - 3 million tons. From October 13 - 17, the average basis of the main contract was - 70 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 549.2 US dollars/ton, down 17.8 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of - 3.13%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,371.6 yuan/ton, down 108.07 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 2.41% [22][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - There were changes in the operation of PX devices in different regions. For example, in East China, some enterprises such as Ningbo Daxie, Sheng Hong Refining and Chemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical had different load - operation conditions. In North China, Urumqi Petrochemical stopped for maintenance on October 14, expected to last for 15 days. The overall domestic PX开工 rate remained at a high level, and the planned maintenance of domestic and foreign PX devices in the fourth quarter was limited [29][33]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some large - scale PTA devices were under maintenance, such as those of Ningbo Taihua, Hainan Yisheng, and Yisheng Dahua. The weekly开工 rate decreased by 1.92% [36][37]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: European and American crude oil futures fell for three consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decline of more than 12%. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 57.15 US dollars/barrel, down 1.75 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The Brent crude oil futures settlement price on October 17 was 61.29 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44 US dollars/barrel from October 10. The market was concerned about the resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the price was affected by factors such as trade relations, supply and demand expectations, and geopolitical situations [42][44]. - **Naphtha**: The price continued to decline this week, and the economy rebounded slightly. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 550.25 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.72 US dollars/ton. The fundamental situation of naphtha did not change significantly, and the East - West arbitrage window remained open, with European naphtha flowing to Asia. The substitution effect of downstream LPG on naphtha affected some demand expectations, and the subsequent impact of sanctions and trade wars on naphtha remained to be evaluated [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The PXN margin rebounded slightly, and the short - process efficiency narrowed. The weekly average PXN was 236.92 US dollars/ton, a change of 7.36% from the previous period. The PX - MX margin remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 98.75 US dollars/ton. Due to the high domestic开工 rate and insufficient demand, the decline of PX was obvious, and the cash flow continued to narrow during the week, with short - process devices near the break - even point [50][52]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The boost of device short - stops to the processing fee was limited. From October 13 - 17, the average spot processing fee of PTA was 169.05 yuan/ton, compared with 202.90 yuan/ton last week. Although the production reduction plan temporarily increased the processing fee, the demand did not improve significantly, and it was difficult to improve the processing fee under weak cost and demand [54][56]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the PTA social inventory was 4.126 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons from the previous week, a change of - 0.47% in the month - on - month growth rate. The decrease in inventory was due to device maintenance rather than demand improvement. The inventory days of PTA factories decreased by 0.14 days, while those of polyester factories increased by 1.15 days. As of October 16, the average inventory usage days of domestic PTA manufacturers were 4.08 days, and the raw material inventory days of polyester factories were 7.35 days. It was estimated that the upward space of the polyester开工 rate was limited in the later period, and the inventory - reduction rhythm would slow down [59][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The average weekly price of PTA declined, and the overall demand was weak, which was negative for the polyester market. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F decreased by 1.47%, 0.82%, and 1.13% respectively from the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of - 1.45%. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,600 - 5,730 yuan/ton, and the average weekly price was 5,710.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from the previous period. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.38%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.22% [67][75]. - **Weaving**: The new export orders were placed slowly, and the weaving market lacked confidence in the future market. With the significant drop in temperature in the north, the online sales of autumn and winter textile and clothing accelerated, driving the sales of thick fabrics such as autumn and winter velvet and woolen fabrics. The starting rate of warp - knitting enterprises increased steadily. However, there was a risk of escalation of Sino - US trade frictions after the festival, and some export enterprises were accelerating the production of existing orders to avoid potential impacts [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - This week, the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held to study suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and deployed later economic work. Attention should be paid to expected fluctuations [8]. - From a fundamental perspective, the current high supply is the main factor suppressing price rebounds. The demand side is weak, and the supply - demand gap remains at a high level. For different varieties, both production and sales of rebar are weak, and it may continue to test the integer - level support in the short term. The production of hot - rolled coils is high, and inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weaker than those of rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar may continue to shrink [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Steel Price and Output**: As of Saturday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3170 yuan (+10), and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3270 yuan (-10). As of October 16, the overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 63600 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 16140 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 2320 tons. The apparent demand was 8.7541 million tons, an increase of 1.3996 million tons month - on - month [6]. - **Scrap Steel**: As of October 16, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnace enterprises was 34.4%, a rebound of 3.7 percentage points month - on - month. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 523000 tons, a rebound of 12500 tons month - on - month. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 252000 tons/day, a decrease of 6600 tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17100 tons, a rebound of 1820 tons, an increase of 12%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 520000 tons, a rebound of 20700 tons, an increase of 4.1%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 4.795 million tons, a rebound of 265700 tons, an increase of 5.9% [7]. - **Production and Inventory of Major Steel Products**: From August to October 2025, the production and inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, and cold - rolled coils showed different trends. For example, in the latest week, the rebar production was 201160 tons (-22400 tons compared with the previous week), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons compared with the previous week) [10]. - **Macro - economic Data**: In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative output of pig iron was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative output of crude steel was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared with the same period in 2024. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by - 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by - 1.92% year - on - year; real estate development investment increased by - 21.28% year - on - year [16][25]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.52165 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 222.28 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [28] 2. Main Variety Basis - Not provided in the content 3. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to decline [37] 4. Supply (Long - process) - As of October 17, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24%. The average daily pig iron output was 241000 tons, a decrease of 590 tons compared with October 10, a decrease of 0.24% [40] 5. Supply (Short - process) - As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric furnace plants was 34.4% (+3.7). As of October 17, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 25.65 yuan (-12.76) [43] 6. Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 201160 tons (-22400 tons). Among them, the long - process output was 174730 tons (-53800 tons), and the short - process output was 26430 tons (+31400 tons) [55] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 184640 tons (-7700 tons), the social inventory was 456410 tons (-108900 tons), and the total inventory was 641050 tons (-185900 tons) [71] 7. Hot - rolled Coils - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 321840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14500 tons. The apparent demand was 315550 tons, a month - on - month rebound of 245800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 57500 tons, the social inventory increased by 120400 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 62900 tons [74] 8. Export Situation - As of October 17, the FOB export price of China was 460 US dollars (-20), and the export profit was - 3.1 US dollars (-4.3). The outbound volume of major domestic ports (32 ports) was 2.9681 million tons (+810100 tons), a month - on - month increase of 37.5% [86]

引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和WIND。风险提示：期市有风险,投资需谨慎! | 贵金属日评20251020:美国信贷危机有所缓解或使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-16 | 收盘价 | 33. 38 | 72. 24 | 999. 80 | 927. 56 | 966. 42 | | | | | 成交量 | 181, 422. 00 | 640615.00 | 459193.00 | 446705.00 | 193, 910. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持创重 | 225159.00 | -17.804.00 | 222192.00 | 239996.00 | -2.967.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 84606.00 | 80961.00 | 70 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff policies, expectations of future interest rate cuts and an end to balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, and disruptions in overseas copper mine production, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 85,050, a decrease of 660 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 121,050 lots, and the open interest was 221,715 lots. The inventory was 44,406 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons [1]. - **LME Copper Futures**: The closing price of the 3 - month contract (electronic trading) was 10,776.5, a decrease of 13 compared to the previous day. The 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 16.83, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 127.75 [1]. - **COMEX Copper Futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 5.14. The total inventory was 345,581, an increase of 2,346 compared to the previous day [1]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply Side**: Multiple domestic and foreign copper mines have production disruptions, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand outlook. Scrap copper procurement is difficult, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates are starting to rise. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in October has increased month - on - month [1]. - **Demand Side**: Domestic electrolytic copper holders are less willing to sell, resulting in low downstream purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Inventory Side**: China's social inventory of electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory has increased [1]. Trading Strategy Wait for the price to fall and then mainly lay out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 80,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper; and the support level around 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Recently, urea prices have been oscillating at a low level, and the spot market remains dull. The previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not emerged. If there is no further change in exports, with the weakening of domestic agricultural demand, domestic demand may struggle to absorb the high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to oscillate at a low level. However, urea is currently at a low valuation, and further short - selling is not recommended. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1602.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 2.00 yuan (-0.12%) from October 16 - UR05 closed at 1672.00 yuan/ton on October 17, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 16 - UR09 closed at 1705.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan (0.06%) from October 16 [1] Domestic Spot Prices - Spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast China, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 112.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 3.00 yuan from October 16 - The 01 - 05 spread was - 70.00 yuan/ton on October 17, up 1.00 yuan from October 16 [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on October 17 compared to October 16 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1604 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1608 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1591 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1602 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1600 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 313,746 lots [1]

Industry Price Information - The middle price of naphtha in CFR is $537.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 1.6% increase compared to the previous value of $545.50 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $86.00 per ton on October 16, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China is $6150.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, remaining unchanged [1] - The spot price of methanol in East China is $2290.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The settlement price of the main contract is $403.00 per ton on - date, and the closing price of the nearby contract is $407.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 1.45% increase; the settlement price of the nearby contract is $408.20 per ton, with a 0.24% increase [1] - The market middle price of ethylene glycol in East China is $4120.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The price difference between near - and far - month contracts is $45.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 9.00% change from the previous value of $36.00 [1] - The price index of polyester fiber is $8400.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 0.30% increase compared to the previous value of $8425.00 [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6285.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 0.24% increase compared to the previous value of $6300.00 [1] Industry Operation Information - The operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal is 61.32% on - date, and the operating rate of ethylene glycol from oil is 69.94% [1] - The industrial chain load rate of PTA factories is 89.38% on October 17, 2025, remaining unchanged; the industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 69.13% on - date, remaining unchanged [1] Financial Information - The post - tax gross profit of ethylene glycol production is $1693.23 per ton on - date [1] - The post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis unit is - $37.17 per ton on October 17, 2025 [1]