1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relief of the US credit crisis and the expectation of the end of the government shutdown may put pressure on precious metal prices. However, factors such as the weakening employment performance in the US leading to an increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, tight inter - bank liquidity potentially causing the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction by the end of 2025, the proactive fiscal expansion expectations of many global countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and intractable geopolitical risks provide long - term support for precious metal prices [3]. - It is expected that precious metal prices may be adjusted. Investors are advised to wait for price pull - backs before establishing long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The US outstanding public debt scale reached $3.80 trillion, an increase of $102.7 billion from the previous week. The net issuance of US federal government treasury bonds in Q3 2025 was $964.5 billion, and the net issuance in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter. The CBO's 2025 forecast shows that making the expanded additional tax credits permanent may increase the fiscal deficit by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035, and repealing health insurance - related provisions may increase the fiscal deficit by $1.4 - $37.5 billion from 2026 - 2035 [10]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $4.1 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased from the previous week to $2.99 trillion, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased to $347.9 billion, and the US Treasury cash account increased to $852 billion. The US Congress has not passed a new temporary appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with 4,108 federal employees laid off [11][13]. - The Fed's rediscount loan to commercial banks decreased to $6.018 billion from the previous week, the seasonal loan increased to $0.49 billion, and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expired on March 11 and dropped to $0 [14]. - Due to the relief of the US credit crisis, the Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) suspended operations on October 17, after having a scale of $15.1 billion on October 15 and 16 [15]. - The medium - and long - term inflation expectations implied by US Treasury bonds decreased, but the one - year and five - year inflation expectations of consumers in September were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, remaining flat or higher than the previous values. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September consumer - end inflation CPI data on October 24 [16][17]. - Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market and the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and end of balance - sheet reduction led to a decline in the yields of short -, medium -, and long - term US Treasury bonds [19]. - The difference between long - and medium - term US Treasury bond yields was positive, but the difference between long - and short - to medium - term Treasury bond yields narrowed due to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts [22][23]. - The US Office of Financial Research (OFR) Financial Stress Index increased from the previous week to - 1.8610, mainly due to the Fed's continuous balance - sheet reduction and the US Treasury's reconstruction of the cash account, which tightened inter - bank market liquidity [24]. Second Part: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased quarter - on - quarter. The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases was 0.01%, with different changes in various types of loans such as business and industrial loans, residential real estate loans, etc. [29][31]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales increased to 5.9% from the previous week, indicating stable consumer spending [34]. - The US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index decreased to 317.2 from the previous week. The 15 - year and 30 - year fixed mortgage rates decreased to 5.52% and 6.27% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in August increased to 4.8 million units [37]. - As of September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 218,000, lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims was 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The ADP non - farm private employment in September was - 32,000, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating concerns about the weakening of the US employment market [40]. - The differences in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany and Japan decreased due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different monetary policy expectations of central banks in different countries [41][43]. - The euro - to - dollar exchange rate began to rise, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate began to weaken due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different economic and political situations in different countries [44]. - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index decreased, while the volatility of the gold ETF increased [46]. Third Part: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from the previous week [55]. - The total inventory of gold in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from the previous week, with the COMEX gold futures inventory decreasing and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures inventory increasing [59][60]. - The differences between domestic and foreign gold futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign gold futures or spot prices [64]. - The London - COMEX gold basis was negative and at a relatively low level, while the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange was positive and at a relatively high level. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [66]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to take profit on last week's long positions in the Shanghai gold monthly spread at high prices [69]. - The 1 - month London silver lease rate began to decline, and the supply shortage in the London silver market may be alleviated [71][73]. - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased quarter - on - quarter, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings increased from the previous week [75]. - The total inventory of silver in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased from the previous week [77][79]. - The differences between domestic and foreign silver futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign silver futures or spot prices [82]. - The overseas and Shanghai silver bases were positive and at relatively high levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [83]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the Shanghai silver near - and far - month contract spread [85]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was higher than the 25% and 50% quantiles of the past five years respectively. Investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - silver ratio" cautiously [87]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the expected increase in oil production by OPEC +, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously. The "gold - copper ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was also much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - For electrolytic nickel, the recommended strategy is to wait and see, with an expected trading range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Given a loose fundamental situation, high inventory pressure, and low valuation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - For stainless steel, the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies, with an expected trading range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Due to weak fundamentals and declining cost support, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6][122]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 1.89%. Trading volume reached 486,300 lots (+196,400), and open interest was 60,500 lots (-17,300). LME nickel dropped 1.11% weekly, with trading volume at 34,600 lots (-6,400) [12]. - The basis premium was 1,240 yuan/ton [14]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, as did the shipping price from the Philippines to China [21]. - In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease but a 33.9% YoY increase [26]. - Last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 707,000 tons MoM, and port inventories rose by 30,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 14 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel narrowed [33]. - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, up 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY. Imports are expected to decline in October [36]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate rose. RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [40]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those in Indonesia increased [44]. - Nickel pig iron inventories decreased [46]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [50]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel decreased [54]. - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, and exports decreased [58]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [63][111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, while imports rose by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY. October's import and export volumes are expected to be similar to September's [67][114]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel declined, while that of nickel sulfate increased, widening the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is minimal [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors increased by 16.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, and those of ternary materials rose by 4.3% MoM and 33.7% YoY [77]. - In October, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 5.1% MoM and 24.3% YoY [79]. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, up 16.3% MoM and 23.7% YoY; sales were 1.604 million units, up 15.0% MoM and 24.6% YoY [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventories and LME nickel inventories increased [86]. - Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventories remained unchanged, while the six - region social total inventory increased by 4,014 tons [91]. 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from purchased nickel sulfate increased, while that from purchased nickel matte and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - nickel matte integrated production [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Wait and see. Expected trading range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. Loose fundamentals, high inventory pressure, and low valuation suggest low - level price fluctuations [95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures trended downward, with a weekly decline of 1.64%. The basis shrank to 970 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 716,700 lots (+557,400), and open interest was 197,700 lots (+144,300) [98]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support [102]. - Losses in the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series stainless steel expanded [107]. 2.3 Fundamentals - Stainless Steel - In October, stainless steel production schedules increased, while those of the 300 - series decreased [111]. - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. October's volumes are expected to be similar to September's [114]. 2.4 Inventory Side - Stainless Steel - Total domestic stainless steel social inventories decreased. 200 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased, while 300 - series inventories increased [120]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies. Expected trading range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Weak fundamentals, loose cost support, and inventory patterns suggest weak price oscillations [122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report After the holiday, both supply and demand in the lead market increased. Considering that the resumption of production of secondary lead was restricted by profit, raw materials, etc., and the transportation of lead ingots coincided with the fruit and vegetable season, the market circulation of lead was limited. Therefore, the lead price was expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.15% to 16,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.38% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 2.13% to 1,971.5 US dollars/ton [13]. - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 110 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remained unchanged, and the TC quotation was stable with a weakening trend. The smelter profit declined, and as of October 10, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 68.7 yuan/ton [30]. 3.2 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 66.64% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major domestic primary lead smelters was expected to be 50,100 tons, a decrease from the previous week, mainly due to local maintenance and production fluctuations in Inner Mongolia [31][36]. 3.3 Secondary Lead - As of October 17, the average price of waste batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The demand for waste batteries increased, but the holders had limited supply and were reluctant to sell, so the waste battery price was relatively firm and was expected to rise further [44]. - As of October 17, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 336 yuan/ton. The lead price weakened, while the waste battery price was firm, resulting in a slight decline in smelter profit [50]. - As of October 16, the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters decreased to 137,200 tons, and the finished product inventory increased to 3,860 tons. The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 1.1 percentage points to 35.1%, and the weekly production reached 46,600 tons. However, considering the average downstream consumption and limited raw material supply, the increase in the operating rate was expected to be restricted [53][56]. 3.4 Lead Batteries - The operating rate of lead batteries increased by 13.26 percentage points to 74.97%. After the double - festival holiday, the downstream operations basically returned to normal. The demand for electric bicycle and automobile batteries in the terminal market increased steadily, and the performance of battery production enterprises was better than expected [63]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of October 10, the export of refined lead incurred a loss of about 2,800 yuan/ton. As of October 17, the import was profitable at 49.44 yuan/ton, and the import profit window opened [76]. 3.6 Inventory - As of October 16, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 37,700 tons, an increase; the inventory of major primary lead delivery brands in warehouses was 2,980 tons, a decrease. Due to delivery and transfer, some inventory became visible, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased as expected. Considering the improvement in demand, the subsequent increase in social inventory might be limited [87]. - As of October 17, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 41,700 tons, an increase; as of October 16, the LME inventory was 250,400 tons, an increase [90].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W | | | 1.0025年9月中国精炼铁进口量为28367.371吨,环比增加17.29%,同比增加407.65%:出口量1412.095吨,环比减少6.22%,同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 资讯 | 增加36.94%。1-9月,中国精炼银累计进口量为185382.768吨,同比增加207.43%;出口量133437.048吨,同比增加64.08%。（净 关总署) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | 10月20日,沪铁主力合约低位震荡,成交量为68844手(-7491),持仓量为58658手(-1803),伦铁涨0.69%。现货市场成交较 | | | | 弱,甚差升水扩大。供给瑞,锲矿价格持平。上周铁矿到选量增加,途口库存累库;铁铁厂亏损幅度加深,10月国内腓产增 | | | | 加,印尼将产增加,铁铁去席;10月国内电解铁群产增加,出口盈利缩小。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂排产增加;合 | | | 媒 | 金与电镀需求稳定。库存 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251021:上方空间有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-13 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 75560.00 | 75300.00 | 71800.00 | 260.00 | | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 75700.00 | 75700.00 | 72280.00 | 0.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 75940.00 | 75780.00 | 72480.00 | 160.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 75940.00 | 75780.00 | 72500.00 | 160.00 | | | 收盘价 | 75700.00 | 75700.00 | 72280.00 | 0.00 | | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 | 169108.00 | 366375.00 | 282178.00 | -197,267.00 | | | (元/吨) 持仓量(手) | 13843 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight pattern has improved, part of the demand was released ahead of schedule in mid - to - late September, there is a large pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may be under pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. There is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; SHFE lead futures main contract closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - SHFE lead basis was - 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, up 0.07 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 27,656 lots, down 30.24%; open interest was 38,195 lots, down 5.03% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 29,265 tons, down 8.78% [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME lead price ratio was 8.56, down 1.22% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 46% month - on - month, imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month. Starting lead - acid battery exports decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, imports increased by 74.41% month - on - month [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 155,573 lots, an increase of 2,687 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not having a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, smelters that had previous maintenance are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and manufacturers produce according to sales [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; SHFE zinc futures main contract closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - SHFE zinc basis was - 55 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, up 93.44 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 86,404 lots, down 2.57%; open interest was 65,610 lots, down 15.04% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,325 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 66,419 tons, down 1.33% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,976 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME zinc price ratio was 7.34, down 0.94% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, zinc concentrate imports were 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (38,000 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to September were 4,008,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [1]. - In September 2025, refined zinc imports were 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The cumulative refined zinc imports from January to September were 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In September, refined zinc exports were 2,500 tons [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 136.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 224,271 lots, a decrease of 279 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees fell to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index rose to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have an advantage, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ores. Domestic TC in October may still decline. On the supply side, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement. As the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 娱与不锈钢日评20251020:成本支撑松动,不锈钢偏弱震荡 数据来源:SMM W | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-10 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 121160.00 | 121270.00 | -110.00 | 121980.00 | 5 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | > | 121330.00 | 期货连一合约 | 121420.00 | 122180.00 | -90.00 | 收盘价 | > | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 121510.00 | 121660.00 | 122370.00 | -150.00 | 5 | | | 121760.00 | 121900.00 | -140.00 | 期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Uncertainties in China-US trade negotiations support precious metal prices. Concerns about the weakening US job market increase the expectation of future interest rate cuts by the Fed and a possible halt to balance - sheet reduction. Geopolitical conflicts in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, expansion expectations of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks globally support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term, but potential negative factors such as the alleviation of the US credit crisis and the end of the federal government shutdown should be watched [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Gold was 973.70 yuan/gram, with a change of - 22.20 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of spot沪金T+D was 71850.00, and the position was 258232.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 4267.90 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 39107098.30 troy ounces. The holding amount of SPDR gold ETF was 41.50 tons [1] - **Silver**: In the Shanghai market, the closing price of Shanghai Silver was 11779.00 yuan/ten grams, and the trading volume of spot沪银T+D was 1249250.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 47.52 dollars/ounce, and the inventory was 506467618.32 troy ounces. The holding amount of iShare silver ETF was 487.19 tons [1] Important Information - The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in China - US economic and trade consultations. The White House economic advisor said the US government shutdown might end this week. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party signed a coalition - governing document, and Takamachi Sanae is likely to become the Japanese prime minister. Vietnam's real estate market has a "trillions - level" problem [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to lay out long positions after price corrections. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 and the resistance level around 4383 - 4778. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 930 and the resistance level around 1000 - 1100. For London silver, watch the support level around 42 - 48 and the resistance level around 57 - 68. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9800 - 10800 and the resistance level around 13000 - 14800 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariff policies, expectations of future Fed rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, and production disruptions in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously bullish [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 20, 2025, the closing price was 85380, up 990 from the previous day; trading volume was 158661 lots, up 37611; open interest was 226910 lots, up 11337; inventory was 41319 tons, down 1530 [1] - **LME Copper Futures**: The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 20, 2025, was 10712.5, up 105.5 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 23.35, down 6.52; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 99.11, down 10.51 [1] - **COMEX Copper**: On October 20, 2025, the total inventory weight was 346616, up 1964 from the previous day, and the price was 5.0485, up 0.06 [1] Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply Side**: There are production disruptions in multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a negative China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, difficult scrap copper procurement, an increase in the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October [1] - **Demand Side**: Domestic electrolytic copper holders have a weak willingness to sell, leading to low purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers [1] - **Inventory Side**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME's electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [1] Trading Strategy Investors should mainly establish long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support levels of 80000 - 83000 and resistance levels of 86000 - 89000 for Shanghai copper; support levels of 9500 - 10200 and resistance levels of 11000 - 12000 for LME copper; support levels of 4.0 - 4.5 and resistance levels of 5.5 - 6.0 for COMEX copper [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side may tighten as some silicon enterprises in the southwest will gradually reduce production or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the demand side has limited improvement, and the overall situation remains in an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For polycrystalline silicon, although the supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October, the demand side is weak, and the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises may limit the upward space of the spot price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of industrial silicon 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.60% to 8,565 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season, and some silicon enterprises will reduce or stop production. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply will tighten. The demand side shows that polysilicon enterprises may still have an increase in production in October, organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The overall situation is oversupplied, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range operations [1]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.25 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 0.09% to 52.80 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.25 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.82% to 50,340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may still have a slight increase in production in October after offsetting the increase and decrease. The demand side is weak during the National Day holiday, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The upward movement of the polycrystalline silicon market is limited by the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips [1]. Export and Import Information - **Industrial Silicon**: In September 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In September 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon was 1,900 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September was 8,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Some polycrystalline silicon production bases in the southwest region will gradually reduce raw material input and are expected to completely stop production from the end of October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [1].