Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in mid - late September, there is significant pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may face downward pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure, and there is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks. The trading strategy for both is to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 39,642 lots, up 22.95%; the open interest was 40,218 lots, down 4.01% [1] - LME inventory was 250,400 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 32,082 tons, up 0.23% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.64%, down 1.8 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.1%, up 1.1 percentage points; that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.97%, up 13.26 percentage points [1] - In Haikou, Hainan, the electric bicycles registered during the transition period have all expired, and their license plates and electronic driving licenses will be cancelled [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, the previously shut - down refineries are gradually resuming production [1] - The terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not obvious, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,780 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 88,687 lots, down 3.54%; the open interest was 77,222 lots, down 11.32% [1] - LME inventory was 38,025 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 67,317 tons, down 0.22% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 58.05%, up 11.22 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 54.63%, up 8.12 percentage points; that of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.13%, up 1.05 percentage points [1] - In August 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 146,700 tons, up 17.2% month - on - month and 29.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the total production was 987,100 tons, up 16.1% year - on - year [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased last week, and imported zinc ore processing fees increased. Due to the low domestic - to - foreign price ratio, refineries mainly purchase domestic ore, and domestic TC may continue to decline in October [1] - Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to deteriorate [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side still has a certain increment while the improvement in demand is limited. It remains in an oversupplied pattern, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. [1] - For polysilicon, with new supply - side news, the polysilicon market has risen again. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it's difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 2.03% to 8,430 yuan/ton. [1] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51.25 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material rose 0.09% to 52.80 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.25 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract dropped 0.45% to 52,340 yuan/ton. [1] Inventory Information - As of October 16, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 442,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Market News - Mercom India Research reported that in the first half of 2025, India's photovoltaic manufacturing industry grew significantly, with an additional 44.2GW of module production capacity and 7.5GW of battery production capacity. The total production capacity of modules and batteries on the ALMM I and II lists reached 109.5GW and 17.9GW respectively. [1] Investment Strategy - Industrial silicon: Adopt range - bound trading. Continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics. [1] - Polysilicon: Go long with a light position on dips before the implementation of supply - side reform policies. Continuously monitor the implementation of industrial policies and macro - sentiment evolution. [1]

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 17 日 油价或有一定超跌 风险提示：俄乌局势、贸易冲突的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油周 ...

黑色金属周报-双焦 受供应偏紧预期提振 煤价表现坚挺 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格偏中有升。截至10月16日，蒙5仓单1197元/吨 (+34)，山西安泽主焦 仓单1304元/吨；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1125元/吨（+16）；期货方面，焦煤主力合约价格 震荡反弹，环比上一交易周反弹1.55%，JM1-5价差-82.5(+15.5）元/吨。 2025年10月17日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 基本面方面，从供应端来看，目前仍有因井下或自身其他原因供应受限的煤矿，供应扰动仍存，整 体供应仍未恢复至前期高位。钢联数据显示，本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率87.33%，环比回升5.44个百 分点，日均精煤产量77.9万吨，环比回升2.67万吨；需求方面，铁水产量虽有回落，但绝对水平仍处高 位，且部分低库存焦企适当补库，原料需求支撑较强，叠加当下煤矿库存延续低位，市场情绪趋于乐观。 数据显示，钢联523口径精煤库存205.41万吨，环比回升9.55万吨。进口海运煤方面，印度终端刚需支 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the fourth quarter, macro - risks still exist. The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak. High production, low consumption, and high inventory suppress the upside space of zinc prices. The LME zinc inventory has reached an absolute low, and the back structure is deepening, with high structural risks and relatively strong price trends. The Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken, the export window for zinc ingots opens, and the slightly tightened pattern of the zinc ore end supports the downside of zinc prices. It is expected that without sudden events in the short term, Shanghai zinc will maintain a range - bound pattern, with an operating range of 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [2][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Zinc Market Review - In the third quarter, zinc prices briefly rose and then fell, with the center of gravity slightly shifting down. By September 30, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,760 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the end of June and 12.99% from the same period last year; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, down 2.98% from the end of June and 13.12% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME 3 - month zinc (electronic disk) was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton, up 7.86% from the end of June and down 3.93% from the same period last year. [10][11] 2. Zinc Concentrate - As of September 29, the average price of domestic zinc concentrate was 16,598 yuan/ton, down 3.14% from the end of June and 23.01% from the same period last year; the average price of imported zinc concentrate was 18,680.64 yuan/ton, up 4.41% from the end of June and down 11.73% from the same period last year. - In July 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0762 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.28%. Overseas mines had both production increases and decreases, mainly with increments. Domestic zinc mines mainly increased production, but the output in September was expected to decline to about 310,000 tons. From January to August, the cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 3.5027 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 43.06%. By the end of September, the raw material inventory of refined zinc smelters was at a relatively high historical level. [28][30][34] 3. Supply Side (1) Profit - The mine end maintained a loose pattern. From July to August, the TC of domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased simultaneously, and smelter profits continued to rise. In September, the TC of domestic zinc concentrate declined, while that of imported zinc concentrate continued to increase. After considering by - product revenues, smelter profits were still optimistic. [64] (2) Production - In July, the global refined zinc output was 1.1993 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.70%. In the third quarter, the domestic zinc ingot output increased significantly, with a quarterly output of 1.8291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The import window for refined zinc remained closed. It is expected that the domestic monthly output will remain at about 600,000 tons in the fourth quarter, and the overseas supply will also remain loose. [68][69][70] 4. Demand Side (1) Downstream - Galvanizing: In July, the start - up rate declined due to high - temperature weather and the off - season of home appliances. In August, it was affected by holidays and environmental protection. In September, it first rose and then fell. Enterprises mainly replenished stocks at low prices. - Die - casting zinc alloy: In July, it was in the off - season. In August, enterprises reduced production at the beginning and replenished stocks at the end. In September, consumption improved slightly, and enterprises also replenished stocks at low prices. - Zinc oxide: In July, it was in the off - season, and the start - up rate and weekly output declined. In August, it was affected by events and zinc price fluctuations, and the raw material inventory increased. [80][84][86] (2) Terminal - In the third quarter, it was the traditional consumption off - season. In September, consumption improved slightly. In the real estate sector, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of commercial housing all declined as of the end of August. In the infrastructure sector, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 5.42% as of the end of August, with a slowdown in growth. In the automotive sector, in August 2025, the production and sales increased year - on - year. [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On October 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened, the downstream inventory preparation has reached its peak, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the production report needs to be observed. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1] Summary According to Related Content Futures Market - On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 73,820 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 75,080 yuan/ton, and 75,080 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,160 yuan/ton, 2,220 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 268,890 lots (+43,652), and the open interest was 177,951 lots (-10,572). The basis changed from premium to discount [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) remained at 70,750 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Raw Material Market - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 829 US dollars/ton (+1), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also showed an upward trend [1] Downstream Product Market - The average prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium increased, while the average prices of some products such as lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 30,456 tons (-2,620). The social inventory decreased, with smelters and downstream reducing inventory, while other sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143) [1] Industry News - At the 5th Energy Storage Safety Seminar, the "Self - Practice Guide for Container Lithium - Battery Energy Storage Systems" was released, which is the first time the industry has transformed the consensus into systematic practical norms [1] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production is expected to increase in October. In terms of demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, the production of power batteries increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase in October, the production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On October 16, the nickel market showed a complex situation. The nickel futures had certain price changes, and the spot market had a fair trading volume with a narrowing basis premium. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and rising inventories. Nickel - iron plants had deeper losses, and production schedules in October increased both in China and Indonesia. The production schedule of domestic electrolytic nickel in October also increased, and export profits decreased. The demand side saw an increase in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel plant production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 16, the stainless - steel futures had a range - bound movement, and the spot market trading was weak with a narrowing basis premium. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. In terms of supply, the stainless - steel production schedule in October increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased. The demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side saw a decline in high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory is piling up, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Nickel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE nickel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 121,270 yuan/ton, 121,420 yuan/ton, 121,660 yuan/ton, and 121,900 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active SHFE nickel contract was 67,146 lots (- 16,615), and the open interest was 66,228 lots (- 2,453). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,150 US dollars/ton (- 60), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,230 US dollars/ton (+ 80), and the on - site closing price was 15,267 US dollars/ton (+ 73). The trading volume was 5,500 lots (- 709) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan/ton (- 150), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan/ton (- 100), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons, the LME registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons, and the total LME nickel inventory was 250,344 tons (+ 3,588). The SMM Chinese port nickel ore total inventory was 971 (in ten thousand wet tons), the SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,100 tons, and the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 43,694 tons (+ 2,866) [2]. Stainless - steel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE stainless - steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 12,585 yuan/ton, 12,615 yuan/ton, 12,700 yuan/ton, and 12,750 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active SHFE stainless - steel contract was 125,870 lots (+ 12,654), and the open interest was 201,245 lots (+ 7,755) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) was 13,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of 316L/NO.1 coil (Wuxi) was 3,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE stainless - steel inventory was 83,231 tons (- 776), and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+ 33,900) [2]. Industry News In Indonesia, the selling prices of domestic mining products, especially those currently prohibited from export, are still lower than the Mineral Reference Price (HPM). This situation puts mining practitioners in a dilemma, especially with limited smelter capacity in the country. The mining enterprises have weak bargaining power, and there is a mismatch between the actual transaction price and the tax - paying obligation. So far, the government has not imposed sanctions on smelters [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251017: Uncertainty of Tariff Imposition and Expectation of Fed Rate Cut Affect Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Price and Market Data Alumina - National average alumina price on 2025-10-16 was 2942.48 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan from the previous day; prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Guizhou decreased by 5 yuan/ton [2] - Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Alumina futures closing price was 2797 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; trading volume was 241,190 lots, down 37,670 lots; open interest was 336,453 lots, up 5,113 lots; inventory was 217,032 tons, down 599 tons [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; prices in various regions showed different changes [2] - Electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; trading volume was 179,878 lots, down 16,299 lots; open interest was 194,298 lots, up 11,135 lots; inventory was 71,394 tons, down 148 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; prices of various types of ADC12 showed different changes [2] - Cast aluminum alloy futures closing price (active contract) was 20,540 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; trading volume was 3,638 lots, up 143 lots; open interest was 12,716 lots, down 53 lots [2] Overseas Aluminum - LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,576 US dollars/ton, up 44 US dollars [2] - LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 27.94 US dollars/ton, down 11.16 US dollars; 3 - 15 month contract spread was -43.74 US dollars/ton, up 127.75 US dollars [2] - Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.6189, down 0.12 [2] Group 3: Core Views and Trading Strategies Alumina - Domestic alumina production is at a loss, but supply-demand is expected to be loose, making prices likely to fall rather than rise [2] - Trading strategy: mainly short when prices rise to high levels, pay attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 yuan/ton (view score: -1) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, pay attention to support levels around 20,300 - 20,600 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 21,300 - 22,000 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum, support levels are around 2,600 - 2,700 US dollars/ton and resistance levels are around 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, or lightly short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, pay attention to support levels around 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton (view score: 0) [2]

| 贵金属日评20251017: 美国出现局部信贷危机或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-10 | 收盘价 | 966. 42 | 960. 34 | 901. 56 | 6.08 | 64. 86 | | | | | 成交重 | 420246.00 | 24.627.00 | 459193.00 | 434566.00 | 38, 947. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 225159.00 | 230686. 00 | 238522. 00 | -5, 527. 00 | -13, 363. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 5.862.00 | 10, 233. 00 | 80961.00 | 75099.00 | 70728.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

| 贵金属日评20251017: 美国出现局部信贷危机或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-10 | 收盘价 | 966. 42 | 960. 34 | 901. 56 | 6.08 | 64. 86 | | | | | 成交重 | 420246.00 | 24.627.00 | 459193.00 | 434566.00 | 38, 947. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 225159.00 | 230686. 00 | 238522. 00 | -5, 527. 00 | -13, 363. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 5.862.00 | 10, 233. 00 | 80961.00 | 75099.00 | 70728.00 | 上海黄金 | ...