司时这些信息的准确性和差整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准和建议 仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。（风险提示；助市有风险 2 市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据米源:SMM W 镍与不锈钢日评20250902:宏观反复,驱动不足 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-08-25 | 2025-09-01 | 2025-08-29 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 收盘价 | 123220.00 | 120070.00 | 期货近月合约 | 121450.00 | 1,770.00 | 3 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 123450.00 | 121700.00 | 120310.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy low on the 01 contract of urea futures, as the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not high. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: one is the expectation of renovation of old production facilities on the supply - side, and the other is the expectation of improved exports on the demand - side [1] Summary According to Relevant Data Urea Futures Prices - On September 1st, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 were 1743 yuan/ton, 1784 yuan/ton, and 1670 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -3 yuan/ton (-0.17%), -7 yuan/ton (-0.39%), and -9 yuan/ton (-0.54%) compared to August 29th [1] Domestic Spot Prices - On September 1st, the spot prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1700 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -20 yuan/ton, -10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and -20 yuan/ton compared to August 29th [1] Basis and Spread - On September 1st, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was -84 yuan/ton, a change of -13 yuan/ton compared to August 29th; the spread of 01 - 05 was -41 yuan/ton, a change of 4 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - The upstream anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively; the downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu also remained unchanged [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1742 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1726 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1743 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 220274 lots [1]

| | | 甲醇日评20250902: 基本面仍偏弱 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 2025/9/1 2025/8/29 | 单位 | | | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2361.00 | 24.00 | 1.02% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2372.00 | 18.00 | 0.76% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2226.00 | 2204.00 | 22.00 | 1.00% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2225.00 | 2225.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2290.00 | 2295.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2240.00 | 2245.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon price is expected to remain in high-level consolidation in the short term, and continuous attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The polysilicon price is volatile and likely to rise, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of industrial policies and the evolution of macro sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.25% to 8,495 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start-up, resulting in a steady increase in supply. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plant enterprises have recovered, and the market supply pressure has increased, and the price may be under pressure again. Silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N-type dense material remained flat at 48 yuan/kg, the price of N-type re-feeding material remained flat at 49 yuan/kg, the price of N-type mixed material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, and the price of N-type granular silicon remained flat at 46 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 5.51% to 52,285 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly. It is expected that the output in July will approach 110,000 tons, and the output in August will increase to about 130,000 tons month-on-month. On the demand side, based on the current latest polysilicon price, the silicon wafer quotation still cannot cover the full cost. Considering the weak demand and the gradual stabilization of upstream raw material prices, the silicon wafer price lacks upward momentum. Some battery cell enterprises have accumulated inventory due to reduced orders, and the price has loosened. The terminal's acceptance of high prices is low, and the overseas component export tax refund stockpiling is basically completed, and the components continue to weaken [1] Other Information - SMM research shows that affected by the recent self-discipline of the polysilicon industry and market transactions, the quotations of domestic leading polysilicon enterprises have been raised, with the mainstream quotation of rod-shaped silicon rising to 55 yuan/kg and the quotation of granular silicon at 49 yuan/kg. The subsequent transaction situation needs further observation [1] - On August 27, 2025, witnessed by Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly, JA Solar signed an investment agreement with Egyptian AHG, UAE Global South Utilities, and Bahrain Infinity Capital. JA Solar plans to invest $220 million (about 1.57 billion yuan) to build a 2GW solar cell factory, a 2GW solar module factory, and a 1GWh energy storage system factory in Egypt, with a planned construction period of three years [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints In August, the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore ran smoothly, with port inventories showing a continuous downward trend and prices remaining relatively stable. However, the supply pressure increased as the current shipment reached a new high for the year, with significant increases in Brazil and non - mainstream mines, and obvious rebounds in arrivals. On the demand side, the molten iron output continued to decline month - on - month, and the northern production restrictions at the end of the month would cause periodic disturbances to demand, weakening the supply - demand situation. In terms of valuation, after the finished product prices fell, the spot and futures profits shrank significantly, causing price pressure adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support around $90, and cautious operations are recommended [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals and Conclusions - **Price**: In August, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with monthly increases ranging from 12 - 30 yuan. As of August 29, the Platts 62% index was at $103.6, up $4.55 month - on - month, equivalent to about 860 yuan in RMB. The optimal deliverable product was NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore was at par with the spot [6]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China decreased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory was 143.88 million tons, a decrease of 560,000 tons from the previous period, 12.22 million tons from the beginning of the year, and 16.91 million tons lower than the same period last year. It is predicted that the port inventory may increase slightly in the next period [6]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume in this period was 3.5568 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 241,000 tons. The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2.8081 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 115,000 tons. Australia's shipment volume was 1.8115 million tons, a decrease of 69,500 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1.4504 million tons, a decrease of 207,800 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 996,600 tons, an increase of 185,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills in this period was 240,130 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 6,200 tons per day. There were 4 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace shutdown and restart plan, the molten iron output may continue to decline in the next period [8]. 3.2 Data Sorting - **Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price**: As of August 29, the optimal deliverable product was Newman powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 801 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal was PB powder [14]. - **Iron Ore Inter - period**: As of August 29, the spread between iron ore 09 and 01 contracts was 15.5 (-3.5) [17]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **High - Low Grade Price Difference**: The content does not mention relevant data. - **Premium Index**: As of August 28, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1835 (+0.0025), and that for 65% pellets was 16.4 (+0.4) [26]. - **Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory**: The content presents the inventory trends and premium (discount) situations of various iron ore brands in 15 ports [29]. - **Steel Mill Sintered Fine Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, the imported sintered fine ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills was 1.206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%, and the domestic sintered fine ore inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.94% [32]. - **247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory & Daily Consumption**: As of August 29, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.0072 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64%, and the daily consumption was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58% [35]. - **Port Inventory, Berthing**: The content shows the trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, and inventories of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores in 45 ports [38]. - **Port Inventory - By Ore Type**: As of August 29, the imported port lump ore inventory was 1.654 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%; the pellet ore inventory was 283,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.75%; the iron concentrate inventory was 1.113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; and the coarse powder inventory was 10.713 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20% [41]. - **Siltage**: The content presents the historical siltage volume data from 2020 - 2025 [44]. - **Iron Ore Floating Quantity**: The content shows the floating quantity trends of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China [47]. - **Iron Ore Import Quantity**: The content presents the import quantity trends of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [50][51][57]. - **Australia's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Australia's shipment to China was 1.45 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53%, and the total shipment was 1.812 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% [60]. - **Brazil's Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: As of August 29, Brazil's shipment to the world was 997,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.78% [65]. - **Shipment Volumes of the Four Major Mines**: As of August 29, the total shipment volume of the four major mines was 2.112 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Among them, Vale's shipment volume increased significantly, while Rio Tinto's decreased [66]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: As of August 29, the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.526 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%, and the arrival volume at northern ports was 1.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.8% [73]. - **Freight**: The content shows the historical freight trends from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao [75]. - **Domestic Ore Production (Estimated)**: As of August 29, the iron concentrate output of mines was 76,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%, and the inventory was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [77]. - **Steel Mill Fine Ore Daily Consumption & Steel Mill Capacity Utilization**: As of August 29, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%, and the average daily molten iron output was 240,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [79]. - **Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the daily pig iron production data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [84]. - **Global Pig Iron Production**: The content shows the pig iron production trends of the EU, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China [87]. - **Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production**: The content presents the pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, showing the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic steel prices fluctuated and declined. The main driving force for the decline was the seasonal weakening of off - season consumption, continuous high production, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. After the decline in steel prices, the spot and futures profits per ton of steel continued to shrink. There was an expectation of a decline in hot metal production before the parade, and the raw material support was insufficient. In the short term, there might be a downward resonance. After September 3rd, attention should be paid to the recovery speed of supply and demand, and it was expected that the inventory would continue to accumulate. In terms of valuation, the October contract had returned to the delivery logic, and the January contract of rebar had fallen below the long - process cost. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the intensity of production cuts, and the cost pressure of off - peak electricity should be noted during the rebound [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Production - In August, domestic steel spot prices fell. As of the end of August, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton. As of August 28th, the overall output of the five major steel products increased by 6.55 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.33 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 29.17 tons, and the apparent demand was 857.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.78 tons [7] Profit - As of August 28th, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3152 yuan/ton, and the point - to - point profit was about 108 yuan; the cash - inclusive tax profit of hot - rolled coil was about 158 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market in East China, the cost of flat - rate electricity was about 3346 yuan/ton, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3218 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 146 yuan/ton, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 18 yuan/ton [7] Scrap Steel - As of August 28th, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 tons. The average daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 sample steel mills was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96 tons, a decline of 5.4%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 451.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67 tons, a decline of 2.1% [8] Macro Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 17% year - on - year [23] - From January to July 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 638731 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new construction area was 35206 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed area was 25034 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [26] Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to be strong [37] Supply Long - Process Supply - As of August 29th, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the average daily hot metal output was 240.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [40] Short - Process Supply - As of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 15.18 yuan, an increase of 4.31 yuan [43] Demand Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220.56 tons, an increase of 5.91 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 189.2 tons, an increase of 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 31.2 tons, an increase of 1.42 tons [56] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 169.62 tons, a decrease of 4.19 tons; the social inventory was 453.77 tons, an increase of 21.26 tons; the total inventory was 623.39 tons, an increase of 16.35 tons [71] Hot - Rolled Coil - This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 324.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons; the apparent demand was 320.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.79 tons, the social inventory increased by 3.23 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 4.02 tons [74] Export - As of August 29th, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, the export profit was 0.5 US dollars, an increase of 2.5 US dollars; the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 225.58 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons [87]

www.hongyuanqh.com 贵金属月报(黄金与白银) 全球多国财政或已开启主动扩张， 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 2025年9月1日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 (从业资格证书：F03087656， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472) 黄金和白银 1、进口关税推升商品价格致美国7月生产端通胀PPI年率和消费端通胀核心CPI年率有所升高，但是美 联储主席鲍威尔因就业供需双弱而表示风险平衡点变化可能要求调整政策，叠加特朗普政府对美联储官员 持续施压，使美联储9月降息预期几无悬念，但仍需关注9月5日和11日美国8月新增非农就业人数及消费者 物价指数CPI。 2、美国《大漂亮法案》扩大减税规模和国防支出，欧洲启用"国家逃逸条款"扩大国防支出，德国放 宽债务刹车设立5000亿欧元特别基金，日本防务支出扩大且预算创新高达122万亿日元，全球财政主动扩张 时代到来。 3、欧洲央行7月暂停降息使存款机制利率维持2%。欧元区(德国)7(8)月消费者物价指数CPI年率为 2%(2.2%)高于预期但持平前值(高于预期和前值)，但因欧元区与德法8月制造业PMI为50.5/49.9/49.9均高 于预期和前值，使欧洲央 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. Lithium spodumene production can make up for the gap, and the current overall supply shows no obvious reduction. The downstream production schedule is acceptable, but after the previous price decline, the downstream's purchasing willingness is low recently due to active replenishment. The macro - sentiment is volatile. It is recommended to focus on the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Conduct interval operations, appropriately buy options for protection, and buy straddle options. The operating range is 70,000 - 90,000 [4][78]. 3.2 Market Review of Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 3.06%. The trading volume reached 3.21 million lots (- 1.11 million), and the open interest reached 346,600 lots (- 15,700). The basis was at a premium of 2,470 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,500 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%, and lithium mica production was 16,100 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. The import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [11][15]. 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [18]. 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. In July, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [24][26]. 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 86.3% [34]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 76,334 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the production was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [37]. 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,667 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. In July, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased [38]. 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. In July, the export volume increased [42]. 3.4.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In September, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 42% [43]. 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In September, the electrolyte production was 191,480 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 35.0%. In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [50]. 3.5 Terminal Demand 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the production of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8%. The installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [53]. 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. The sales volume was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [56]. 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy - storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.3%. In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 37.9% and a year - on - year increase of 60.1% [61]. 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 25.52 million, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [64]. 3.6 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate dropped by 27 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica dropped by 45 yuan/ton [68]. 3.7 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 407 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,510 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 1,293 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,810 tons. Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 853 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 215 tons [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market has an oversupply situation with increasing supply and weak demand, and the domestic inventory is continuously accumulating. The fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged. Considering the current warm macro - sentiment and the continuous decline of LME inventory to an absolute low level, it provides some support for zinc prices. In the short term, zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Subsequently, continuous attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and overseas risks [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.61% to 22,140 yuan/ton, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.86% to 21,940 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) increased by 0.30% to 2,814 US dollars/ton [10]. - Due to good profits, the supply of zinc ingots remained loose. The start - up rate of galvanizing decreased due to poor demand and environmental protection impacts. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy slightly increased with a slight improvement in demand. The inventory of zinc oxide finished products decreased with improved shipments. The social inventory of zinc ingots continued to accumulate [4][15]. 3.2 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory**: As of August 29, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc., was 414,000 tons, an increase of 25,500 tons compared to the previous period [18]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of August 28, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,748 yuan/metal ton. In July, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3,035,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.20% [25]. - **Import TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 93.75 US dollars/dry ton [3]. 3.3 Supply End - **Refined Zinc Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to improve. As of August 28, the production profit was - 188 yuan/ton. In July, the domestic refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,700 tons. It is expected that the output in August will increase to about 620,000 - 630,000 tons [33]. - **Refined Zinc Import**: The import profit window was closed. As of August 29, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,839.26 yuan/ton. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,600 tons [36]. 3.4 Demand End - **Galvanizing**: The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.95 percentage points to 55.47%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. The weak black prices, poor downstream demand, environmental protection restrictions, and other factors led to a continuous decline in the start - up rate [40][43]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.83% to 22,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.81% to 23,185 yuan/ton. The start - up rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 50.78%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory slightly increased [49][50][54]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.47% to 21,100 yuan/ton. The start - up rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 51.69%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased [58][61][64]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: As of August 28, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 134,700 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous period. As of August 29, the SHFE inventory was 86,000 tons, showing an increase [69][72]. - **LME Inventory**: As of August 28, the LME inventory was 56,500 tons, dropping to an absolute low level [72]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In June 2025, the supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons; in May, it was - 21,600 tons; in April, it was - 44,000 tons; in March, it was - 15,200 tons; in February, it was 89,700 tons; in January, it was 4,800 tons [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The fundamentals of nickel are relatively loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 29, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121450 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 680 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 750 yuan/ton, and 710 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 136812 lots (+6981), and the open interest was 89621 lots (-2584) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21905 tons (-108) [2]. - **LME Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15190 dollars/ton (+185), the electronic - trading closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158), and the on - floor closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158) [2]. - **Volume**: The trading volume was 7266 lots (-788) [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-201564), and the total inventory was 209544 tons (-132) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 12760 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 109373 lots (-12493), and the open interest was 122203 lots (-4913) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 99772 tons (-659) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Nickel Spot**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122400 yuan/ton (+650), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123550 yuan/ton (+700), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121600 yuan/ton (+650) [2]. - **Premiums**: The average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract was 2300 yuan/ton (+50), and the average premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) over the Shanghai nickel contract was 350 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Spot**: - **Prices**: For 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13700 yuan/ton (0), and for 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13100 yuan/ton (+75) [2]. - **Premiums**: The basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price over the active contract was 850 yuan/ton (+35) [2]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, SMM China port nickel - ore total inventory was 8740000 wet tons (+540000), and the total national port nickel - ore inventory was 6000000 wet tons (0) [2]. - **Nickel Inventory**: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory totaled 4700 tons (0), and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 39470 tons (-1402) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The 300 - series stainless - steel spot inventory was 622700 tons (-3300) [2].