Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250901: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 29, the nickel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel rose 1.04%. The spot market had good trading, and the premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals were loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was volatile. The nickel price was expected to oscillate within a range, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - On August 29, the stainless - steel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with decreased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The current macro sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals needed time and had cost support. The price was expected to fluctuate following the macro situation, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Market Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel: On August 29, the main contract's trading volume was 136,812 lots (+6,981), and the open interest was 89,621 lots (-2,584). The inventory decreased by 108 tons to 22,013 tons. The price of nickel futures contracts showed an upward trend [2]. - LME nickel: On August 29, the 3 - month nickel's official spot price was $15,190 (+$185), the electronic - trading closing price was $15,421 (+$158), and the trading volume was 7,266 lots (-2,656). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 201,564 tons to 0 tons [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore last week decreased, and port inventories increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, leading to inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary cathode material production increased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Market Data - On August 29, the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 109,373 lots (-12,493), and the open interest was 122,203 lots (-4,913). The SHFE inventory decreased by 659 tons to 99,772 tons [2]. Supply - Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. Demand - Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. Inventory - The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory in the previous week was 622,700 tons (-3,300) [2]. Other Data - National port nickel ore inventory: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 874 (in ten - thousand wet tons) on August 29, an increase of 54 compared to the previous week [2]. - Nickel inventory in different areas: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 4,700 tons. SMM pure - nickel social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons [2]. - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In August, 200 - series stainless - steel inventory was 191,600 tons (+2,400), 300 - series was 622,700 tons (-3,300), 400 - series was 117,300 tons (-2,300), and the total inventory was 926,900 tons (-3,200) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and with Trump's continuous pressure and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.84 yuan compared to the previous day and 6.36 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 27,326.00, a decrease of 4,610.00 compared to the previous day and 3,616.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,451.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 84.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 25.10 dollars compared to the previous week. The London gold spot price was 3,407.65 dollars/ounce, with a change of 31.30 dollars compared to the previous day and 63.00 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9,377.00 yuan/kilogram, with a change of -8.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 9.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 454,162.00, a decrease of 66,052.00 compared to the previous day and 45,116.00 compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 39.71 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.02 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.82 dollars compared to the previous week. The London silver spot price was 38.22 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.72 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.86 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US appeal court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, but they remained in effect until the lawsuit was completed. The US January core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations. The import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US July production - end inflation PFI annual rate and consumer - end inflation core CPI annual rate. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point might require policy adjustment, making the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September almost certain [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank suspended rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July consumer price index CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone and German and French August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9, higher than expected and the previous value, so the European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The UK July consumer price index CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.8% (3.8%) and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous value. The UK August SPCI manufacturing (service) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value, so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The Japanese (Tokyo) July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, so the Bank of Japan still has the expectation of raising interest rates before the end of 2025, and the earliest time may be October [1]. Trading Strategy - Due to the Fed's possible rate cut in September, Trump's continuous pressure, and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions when prices decline. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1].

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250901: High Volatility, Protect Positions [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On August 29, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the premium widened. In the short - term, both supply and demand strengthened, the fundamentals changed little, and the market was still easily affected by news. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range operations, protect positions by buying appropriate call options, or buy straddle options [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three contracts and other contracts decreased compared with August 28, with decreases ranging from $780 - 1140$ yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures was 490,058 hands (- 315,527), and the open interest of active contracts was 346,605 hands (- 458) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 29,887 tons, an increase of 930 tons compared with August 28 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and different types of lithium products changed. For example, the spread between near - month and continuous - one contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton [3]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, with increases of $5 - 150$ dollars/ton or yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Product Prices**: The average prices of most lithium products decreased, such as battery - grade carbonate lithium (- 350 yuan/ton) and battery - grade hydroxide lithium (- 80 yuan/ton) [3]. 2. Industry News - **IGO and Tianqi Lithium**: After incurring a loss of AUD 955 million (equivalent to USD 622 million) in the fiscal year ending June 2025, Australian producer IGO is negotiating with Tianqi Lithium about the future of their 24,000 - ton/year hydroxide lithium refinery in Kwinana, Australia. The two companies stopped the proposed 24,000 - ton/year refinery expansion project in January. The joint venture plans to produce 9,000 - 11,000 tons of hydroxide lithium in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, higher than 6,782 tons in 2024 - 25 [3]. - **Codelco and SQM**: Chile's new economy minister Alvaro Garcia said that Codelco and local miner SQM are expected to finalize an important lithium cooperation agreement before the current government's term ends in 2026. The partnership will give Codelco majority control of SQM's lithium production business in the Atacama Salt Flats [3]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium decreased slightly, and the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials changed little. The production capacity expansion of Greenbushes lithium spodumene concentrate is approaching completion, and the planned production in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year is 1.5 - 1.65 million tons, higher than 1.48 million tons in the previous year [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of cobalt - acid lithium decreased, and the production of manganese - acid lithium increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle sales continued, but the month - on - month sales declined. The 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]. 4. Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 29,887 tons (+ 930 tons), and social inventory was destocked. Refineries destocked, while downstream and other inventories were tight [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, lead prices will maintain range - bound consolidation [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. Although overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, with Powell's dovish remarks and increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, zinc prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lead and Zinc Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,880 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 16,725 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 155 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; Shanghai lead futures active contract trading volume was 43,853 lots, up 28.41%; open interest was 49,182 lots, down 1.46% [1] - LME lead inventory was 261,050 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 57,325 tons, down 1.42% [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) closed at 1,991 US dollars/ton, up 0.38%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.48, down 0.55% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,940 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous day; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was - 200 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; Shanghai zinc futures active contract trading volume was 139,630 lots, down 10.73%; open interest was 116,592 lots, up 1.71% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 56,500 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 37,957 tons, up 5.33% [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) closed at 2,814 US dollars/ton, up 0.97%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.87, down 1.09% [1] 3.2 Industry News Lead - From August 22nd to August 28th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.33%, up 0.26 percentage points; that of recycled lead enterprises was 35.3%, down 4.1 percentage points; and that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.59%, down 1.05 percentage points [1] - A Malaysian data center owner and North American AI giant N company will invest $2.36 billion to build an AI data center in Johor, and Coslight's VRLA battery system won the bid [1] Zinc - From August 22nd to August 28th, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 55.47%, down 1.95 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 50.78%, up 0.32 percentage points; and that of zinc oxide enterprises was 51.69%, down 4.20 percentage points [1] - Last week, the inventory of SMM zinc concentrates at major Chinese ports was 414,000 tons, up 25,500 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the increase in Fangchenggang inventory [1] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Lead - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some recycled lead refineries have reduced or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost inversion [1] - Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not emerged. Dealers are mainly digesting inventory, and producers produce based on sales [1] Zinc - Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, refineries mainly purchase domestic zinc ore, and the domestic TC in September may have limited growth [1] - Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an obvious trend of increased output. Due to the off - season and environmental restrictions in the north, some downstream operations have weakened, and the enthusiasm for purchasing zinc ingots is limited [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed Chair Powell's indication of a potential policy adjustment due to the employment supply - demand imbalance makes a September rate cut by the Fed almost certain. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure and the global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 781.70 yuan/gram, with a change of 1.84 yuan compared to the previous day and 6.36 yuan compared to last week. For international gold, the London gold spot price was 3407.65 dollars/ounce, and the SPDR gold ETF holding was 967.94 tons [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 9377.00 yuan/kilogram. The trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 454162.00, and the position was 3296160.00 [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.53, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 87.52 [1]. Important Information - **US Economy**: The US 1 - month core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year, and the tariff impact is still controllable. The import tariffs have pushed up inflation rates in July, but the Fed's possible policy adjustment due to employment conditions makes a September rate cut highly likely [1]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The European Central Bank may cut interest rates at most once before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1]. Trading Strategies Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when precious metal prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 and the resistance level around 3450 - 3500. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 and the resistance level around 800 - 810. For London silver, note the support level around 34 - 36 and the resistance level around 37 - 40. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut in September and the time needed for the full resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, along with weak downstream demand in sectors like home appliances and solders, may cause Shanghai tin prices to weaken first and then strengthen. Investors are advised to buy on price dips, with attention on support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to weak domestic demand in sectors such as home appliances and solder materials. Given the expected Fed rate cut in September, partial production suspension for maintenance of domestic refined tin capacity, and the decline in domestic refined tin social inventory, investors are recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position arbitrage opportunities by going long on the Shanghai tin basis at low prices [6]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts, along with the Shanghai - London tin price ratio slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years, are due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is suggested to temporarily watch the arbitrage opportunities of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side - **Tin Ore**: Namibia's Uis mine's second concentrator started commissioning in late August with a maximum monthly ore - processing capacity of 40,000 tons. In Myanmar's Wa State, the first batch of 40 - 50 mines will resume production after paying fees, with an initial increment of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a 2 - 3 - month transmission period. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in domestic tin ore production and a decrease in imports in September [2][20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in September may decrease month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin production and an increase in inventory in September. Indonesia's export volume in September may decrease, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports and a decrease in exports [2][27][31]. Demand - side - **Tin Solder**: China's tin solder capacity utilization rate in September may increase month - on - month, while inventory may decrease [35][37]. - **Photovoltaic Welding Tape**: China's photovoltaic welding tape imports in September may decrease month - on - month, and exports may increase [39][41]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in September may all decrease month - on - month [43][45]. - **Integrated Circuits and Smartphones**: China's integrated circuit and smartphone production in September may increase month - on - month [47][50]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: China's lead - acid battery capacity utilization rate has decreased compared to last week [53][56]. Inventory - The inventory of refined tin in the SHFE has increased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory has decreased; the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased; the total domestic and foreign refined tin inventory has increased [12]. Price and Spread - China's tin concentrate price has increased compared to last week, and tin concentrate imports are still profitable. The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate has decreased, indicating a tight supply expectation [16]. - The basis of Shanghai tin is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range [4][6]. - The spread of LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread of (3 - 15) contract is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is slightly below the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. From a valuation perspective, the upstream coal - based methanol profit is still high, while the downstream profit in the inland area is poor, with room for repair, and the methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving force perspective, the return of inland and imported supplies exerts downward pressure on the methanol price. Currently, the raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises is high, and there is little demand for further inventory building. It is highly likely that the port inventory will continue to accumulate, so the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: On August 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, MA01 decreased by 12 yuan/ton (-0.51%) to 2361 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 2372 yuan/ton, and MA09 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-0.94%) to 2204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Among different regions, prices in most regions decreased slightly, such as in Guangdong, which decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%) to 2245 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.47%) to 2105 yuan/ton. Prices in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 4.50 yuan/ton to - 136 yuan/ton [1]. Raw Material Prices - **Coal Prices**: The prices of most coal varieties remained unchanged, except for Yulin Q6000, which decreased by 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 555 yuan/ton [1]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: The industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-2.31%) to 422.60 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 462 yuan/ton [1]. - **Downstream Profit**: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 35 yuan/ton (-9.51%) to 333 yuan/ton, while the profit of East China MTO increased by 51.50 yuan/ton (19.80%) to - 208.57 yuan/ton. The profits of most downstream products such as acetic acid, MTBE, etc. increased [1]. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated and declined, opening at 2373 yuan/ton, closing at 2361 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 419,697 lots, and the open interest was 821,019 lots, with a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating loads. The operating rate of methanol plants in this country has increased to around 79%, and the daily output has continued to reach a high level [1]. Trading Strategy The methanol price has returned to a weak fundamental situation. Considering the valuation and driving factors, the upward driving force for methanol is not strong. However, it should be noted that this logic has been partially reflected in the market, and there is also an anti - involution expectation for chemical products [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - Recommend focusing on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the valuation of urea is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: supply - side renovation of old - fashioned plants (old - fashioned plants over 20 years old account for about 20%, and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side improvement in exports, especially in September - October [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong closed at 1,746 yuan/ton on August 29, down 7 yuan or 0.40% from August 28; UR05 closed at 1,791 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.11%; UR09 closed at 1,679 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot Prices - In the domestic market, the prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 29 compared to August 28, except that the small - particle urea price in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton or 0.58% [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton [1] Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 38 yuan/ton or 0.73%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1,754 yuan/ton, the highest was 1,758 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,743 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,746 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,750 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 219,096 lots [1] Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1,746. It is recommended to buy on dips for the urea market in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,410, up 480 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,061 lots, down 2,342; the open interest was 173,826 lots, up 4,829; the inventory was 21,412 tons, up 180 [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,902, up 84 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 158,900 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.5445, down 0.00 from the previous day; the total inventory was 275,226, up 3,121 [2]. Industry Information - **Production and Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Due to the impact of changes in waste copper collection, the supply of waste copper will significantly decrease in September, and the output of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from waste copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production will drop significantly by 5.25 tons in September and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating - ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale production [2]. Industry Operation - **Copper Rod**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared with last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper enameled wire decreased (dropped) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese enameled wire enterprises decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese copper plate and strip decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) [2]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tubes may decrease month - on - month in September, as the total air - conditioning and heat - pump volume is expected to be lower than last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US [2]. Investment Strategy - **Trading Suggestion**: Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the PX price rose and then retraced. The absolute price on Friday was down 0.9% week - on - week to $849/ton CFR, but the weekly average price still increased slightly by 1.4% to $855/ton CFR. The PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether the PX profit can continue to improve depends on more unexpected factors. PX is in an advantageous position in the industrial chain, and its social inventory is decreasing due to the rigid demand of new PTA production facilities. As the downstream demand peak season approaches, polyester production is gradually recovering [2]. - The PTA spot supply is sufficient, and the spot basis is weakening, which is negative for market sentiment. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to continuously boost the price. As the traditional peak season approaches, the polyester production load may increase, and the de - stocking volume is expected to expand. The terminal demand is still weakly recovering, but the downstream's bullish expectation has increased. The industrial chain profit is shifting towards the raw material segment, and PTA will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is trading at 5880 - 6030 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The bottle - chip supply side has a stable - to - falling price offer, and the downstream is cautious. The overall production reduction of the supply side has not changed significantly, and the market spot supply is abundant [2]. - Currently, the pricing logic is still cost - driven. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On August 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.01/barrel, down 0.91% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.12/barrel, down 0.73%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $597.38/ton, up 0.59%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $691.50/ton, up 0.29%; the spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $849.00/ton, up 0.04% [1]. - **PTA Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; the settlement price was 4774 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4722 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; the settlement price was 4718 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4776 yuan/ton, down 1.34%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4740 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; the CCFEI price index of overseas PTA was $634.00/ton, down 0.47% [1]. - **PX Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the settlement price was 6844 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6702 yuan/ton, down 2.53%; the settlement price was 6866 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The domestic PX spot price was 6738 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The PXN spread was $251.63/ton, down 1.24%; the PX - MX spread was $157.50/ton, down 1.05% [1]. - **PR Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the settlement price was 5954 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5836 yuan/ton, up 0.52%; the settlement price was 5832 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 5960 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Downstream**: On August 29, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6540 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5885 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Device Information - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device of Jiaxing Petrochemical restarted on August 22. Two 5 - million - ton PTA devices of Hengli Huizhou unexpectedly shut down from August 21 to August 23, and the restart time is to be determined [2]. Production and Sales Information - On August 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industrial chain was 82.59%, up 2.21 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA factories was 70.76%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 1.12 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 73.09%, up 1.16 percentage points; the PTA industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 62.03%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 41.62%, down 1.77 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 45.86%, up 5.15 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 77.76%, up 35.24 percentage points [1]. Trading Strategy - The TA2601 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with an intraday trading volume of 602,600 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with an intraday trading volume of 270,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5956 yuan/ton, down 0.20%, with an intraday trading volume of 60,500 lots [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2].