研究报告 铝周报 短期内，铝价或以震荡趋势为主。 沪铝或维持震荡偏弱运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡偏弱行情为主。 价格范围在 20546 元/吨附近至最高 20870 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 3 月 31 日星期一 美联储巴尔金表示，目前的适度紧缩政策是一个不错的选择， 如果形势变化，美联储可以进行调整。当前的不确定性水平可能 会抑制消费者和企业的支出。电解铝现货价格或维持震荡偏弱运 行，升贴水维持在小幅贴水状态。铝土矿进口量小幅下降，但仍 然处于历史高位。氧化铝处于小幅过剩状态，氧化铝库存小幅下 降，库存水平处于历史低位。全国铝棒库存持续下降，库存水平 仍处于历史高位。沪铝库存小幅上升，库存水平处于近年来较低 位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比出现下降。 【后市展望】 【风险提示】 美联储政 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that this week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. In the later stage, the palm oil - producing areas will enter the production - increasing cycle, while the purchasing enthusiasm of major demand countries is low, and the B40 policy is still not implemented. Under multiple negative factors, palm oil faces significant upward pressure. South American soybean harvest is basically settled, and the US soybeans will enter the planting period. The previous outlook forum predicted a significant year - on - year decline in the new - crop planting area of US soybeans. The Trump administration's requirement for oil and biofuel producers to reach a consensus on the next - stage biofuel policy brings some positive factors to the edible oil market. Domestic edible oils have entered the seasonal consumption off - season, and with the arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the factory operating rate will increase again. It is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [9][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. The Y2505 soybean oil contract fell 0.45% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the P2505 palm oil contract remained flat at 9,088 yuan/ton, and the OI2505 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.16% to close at 9,271 yuan/ton [5][30]. 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: From March 1 - 25, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 7.01%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.33%, and the output increased by 5.1% month - on - month. The export volume from March 1 - 25 was 835,732 tons, a decrease of 8.08% compared with the same period last month. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.01% [7][30]. - **Soybean oil**: Before the release of the US planting intention and quarterly inventory report, analysts expected that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.762 million acres, lower than last year's 87.05 million acres and the 84 million acres estimated by the USDA outlook forum. The expected soybean inventory on March 1, 2025, was 1.901 billion bushels, the highest level in the same period in three years, a 3.0% increase compared with the same period in 2024. US soybeans rose 1.21% this week [7][30]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,670 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [12]. - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of March 21, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 1.004 million tons. On March 26, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 367,000 tons [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,764,290 tons [19]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 374 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [20]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 582 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at the average level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of March 28, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 29 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [23]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis The content is basically the same as the core view, emphasizing that the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom this week, and it is more likely that the prices of the three major domestic edible oils will fluctuate and consolidate [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Methanol may shift from a strong current situation to a weak future expectation. The futures price is likely to continue its weak trend, and the spot price may move towards the futures price [10][35]. - When the operating logic of methanol moves towards the realization of weak expectations, there may be further room for the decline of methanol futures, and opportunities for short - selling methanol can be considered. Spot enterprises can also pay attention to the opportunity of selling hedging for methanol [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures continued to oscillate weakly, which did not match the strong trend of the spot price in East China's Taicang. The current market contradiction lies in the mismatch between the recovery of coastal MTO demand and insufficient import supply. The tight spot circulation in ports pushed the basis in East China to over +120 yuan/ton [13]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Domestic Methanol Production Declined for Seven Consecutive Weeks - From March 21 - 27, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,826,845 tons, a decrease of 27,390 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The number of devices under maintenance and production reduction exceeded those under recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [14]. 2.2 Last Week, the Overall Capacity Utilization Rate of Methanol Downstream Remained Stable - As of March 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products were as follows: the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 6.74%; the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the operating rate of methane chloride was 77.81%; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 52.42% [18][19]. 2.3 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Sample Production Enterprises Decreased - As of 11:30 on March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 327,800 tons, a decrease of 17,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 5.09%. The inventory in the northwest region decreased by 9.85% month - on - month, while that in the east, north, central, and southwest regions increased to varying degrees, and the inventory in the northeast region decreased by 5.56% month - on - month [20]. 2.4 Last Week, the Inventory of Methanol Port Samples Continued to Decline - As of March 26, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29%. The inventory in the Jiangsu area decreased, the inventory in the Zhejiang area increased, and the inventory in the Guangdong and Fujian areas decreased [25][26]. 2.5 Methanol Profits Generally Recovered - From March 21 - 27, 2025, the average weekly profits of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The average profit of coke oven gas in Hebei was 457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.17%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 275.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.25% and a year - on - year increase of 49.68% [28]. 2.6 Import and Export - In February 2025, China's actual methanol import unloading was 50,960 tons, a decrease of 544,600 tons from the previous month, a decline of 51.71%. The import supply from the Middle East decreased significantly. In February, due to the closure of the re - export arbitrage window, China's actual methanol export was extremely low [32]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 1.8998 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 87.40%, an increase from the current period. The overall capacity utilization rate of the main downstream products of methanol is expected to remain stable. The inventory of methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 325,600 tons, a slight decrease from the current period. The port inventory is expected to decrease significantly. In March 2025, the estimated total import volume is around 534,900 tons, and the export is expected to increase significantly [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the report is ★★ [4] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventories decreased for the fifth consecutive week, social inventories decreased for the third consecutive week, and production changed from a decrease to an increase. After some steel mills in western provinces announced production cut plans at the beginning of last week, it provided a short - term boost to the market. However, the positive sentiment faded in the second half of the week. Coupled with the negative impact of the US 25% tariff on imported cars on the macro - level, the black sector weakened again. The rb2505 contract should focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton [3][31] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [9] Important Market Information - On March 26, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported cars, which will take effect on April 2 [13] Supply - side and Demand - side and Inventory - side Information - As of February 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 52.7, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index was 49.3, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [17] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 82.11%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 5.51%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.08%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%. The steel mill profitability rate was 53.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 25.11%. The daily average hot metal output was 2.3728 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 159,700 tons. The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 50 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 26 yuan/ton, in Shandong was - 8 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 98 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 24 yuan/ton [30] 后市展望 - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar increased for the sixth consecutive week, factory inventories decreased for the fifth consecutive week, social inventories decreased for the third consecutive week, and production changed from a decrease to an increase. After the short - term boost from the production cut plans of some steel mills in western provinces at the beginning of last week, the sentiment faded in the second half of the week. Affected by the negative macro - level impact of the US 25% tariff on imported cars, the black sector weakened again. The rb2505 contract should focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton [31] Operation Strategy - It is recommended that the rb2505 contract focus on the support around 3130 yuan/ton. If it effectively breaks below, it is recommended to turn to a wait - and - see approach [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of natural rubber futures last week showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a weak and volatile trend and a slight overall decline. Looking ahead, considering the weakening macro - market sentiment due to Trump's tariff policy and the improving domestic economic data, along with the supply increment expectation from the opening of the Yunnan rubber - cutting season, high tire inventory, and the decelerating inventory accumulation in Qingdao, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is relatively limited [6][85]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2505 of natural rubber futures ranged between 16,620 - 17,200 yuan/ton. It rose and then fell, with a weak and volatile trend and a slight overall decline. As of the close on March 28, 2025, it was reported at 16,670 yuan/ton, down 270 points or 1.59% for the week [5][11]. (2) Spot Price - As of March 28, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 21,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 17,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,390 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [15][18]. (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of March 28, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 120 yuan/ton, narrowing by 270 yuan/ton compared to last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both declined slightly compared to last week [23][25]. 2. Important Market Information - Trump announced a series of tariff policies, including a 25% tariff on all non - US - made cars, and also mentioned tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries. The Fed's Moussallem believes that an economic recession is not imminent, and the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2% by 2027. Atlanta Fed President Bostic now expects only one interest rate cut this year. The US Q4 2024 GDP final annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%, and the core PCE price index increase was revised down to 2.6%. The US initial jobless claims last week decreased by 1,000 to 224,000, and the continuing jobless claims decreased by 25,000 to 1.856 million. The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.8, a 3 - month low. The eurozone's March manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, a 26 - month high. China's industrial enterprise profits improved in January - February 2025, and the auto and heavy - truck markets also showed certain growth trends [26][27][30]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of February 28, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Malaysia's production increased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, India's decreased significantly, Thailand's decreased significantly, and China had no production due to the off - season. The total production of main - producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China as of February 28, 2025, was 1.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China as of February 28, 2025, was 800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% [38][43][47]. 4. Demand - side Situation - As of March 27, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 82.99%, down 0.12% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 68.11%, down 0.96% from last week. As of February 28, 2025, China's monthly auto production was 2.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 39.64% and a month - on - month decrease of 14.15%; monthly auto sales were 2.1286 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 34.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.17%; monthly heavy - truck sales were 81,363 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.09% and a month - on - month increase of 12.74%. As of December 31, 2024, China's monthly tire outer - tube production was 105.56 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. As of February 28, 2025, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 43.76 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 30.93% [52][55][60]. 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of March 28, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,250 tons, up 1,310 tons from last week. As of March 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons or 1.3%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 809,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. As of March 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons or 0.5%. Among them, the bonded area inventory was 73,000 tons, an increase of 3.27%; the general trade inventory was 529,300 tons, an increase of 0.13% [83]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side: Global natural rubber supply is in the low - production season, with overseas supply shrinking. China is gradually entering the rubber - cutting season, and there is an expectation of supply increment in Yunnan. The supply - side support has weakened, and the import of natural rubber in China in the first two months of 2025 increased by 19.25% year - on - year. - Demand - side: The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires declined slightly last week but remained high. Tire inventory is at a year - on - year high. In February 2025, auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month; heavy - truck sales increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The export volume of Chinese rubber tires in the first two months of 2025 increased by 3.3% year - on - year. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise slightly, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased slightly, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly with a decelerating inventory - accumulation speed [84]. 7.后市展望 - Similar to the core view, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, but the downside space is relatively limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - and policy - sides, the weather in the main production areas, the rubber - cutting situation in Yunnan, rubber import, demand, and inventory changes [85][86]. 8.操作策略 - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive investors can consider short - selling on rallies [8][87].