研究报告 油脂周报 局势缓和，油脂震荡回落 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 | | | 电话：13609351809 | | | 邮箱：445012260@qq.com | | | 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 30 | 星期一 | 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价冲高回落，全周豆油 Y2509 合约下跌 1.89%， 以 8002 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约下跌 1.87%以 8376 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约下跌 2.67%，以 9466 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 30 星期一 榈油方面：南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示， 2025 年 6 月 1-25 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期增加 4.09%。船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西亚 6 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口 ...

Core View - The aluminum price is likely to show a fluctuating trend [4][40] Market Review Futures Price - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures, AL2508, showed a slightly stronger fluctuating market, with prices ranging from around 20,240 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,660 yuan/ton [9] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price showed a slightly stronger fluctuating trend, with contract prices ranging from 2,543 - 2,654 US dollars/ton [13] Spot Analysis - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 20,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,920 yuan/ton, 21,070 yuan/ton, 20,955 yuan/ton, and 20,905 yuan/ton respectively [16] - As of June 27, 2025, the premium of electrolytic aluminum was maintained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16] Supply and Demand Alumina Supply - Demand Gap - In May 2025, the alumina supply - demand gap was 310,000 tons, compared with a gap of 20,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [22] Bauxite Imports - As of May 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 17,514,458.2 tons, a decrease of 3,158,824.22 tons from the previous month. The domestic alumina inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period. The total domestic inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [25] Inventory Global Visible Inventory - As of June 27, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 8,300 tons from the previous trading day, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 3.58% [32] Domestic Invisible Market Inventory - As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous day [32] Macro and Fundamental Analysis - In May, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.8%. On a month - on - month basis, it increased by 0.61% compared to the previous month. From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment was 1,919.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment remained flat year - on - year. On a month - on - month basis, fixed - asset investment in May increased by 0.05% [38] - Bauxite imports decreased significantly month - on - month. The global alumina supply - demand remains tight. Alumina inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level. Shanghai aluminum inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the inventory level is at an extremely low level in recent years. LME aluminum inventory has increased slightly, and the domestic invisible market inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to decline [38]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current market for old - crop corn inventory continues to decline, while the demand for corn in the breeding and feed production sectors is steadily increasing. The overall market for circulating grain is in a state of tight balance. Although the new - season wheat listing has a negative impact on grain prices, its actual impact on corn prices is limited, and multiple factors still support corn prices. - In the short term, the futures price may show a volatile trend due to price corrections in some regions and the phased pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] 3) Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - **Futures Price Review**: Last week, the domestic corn futures main contract c2509 reached a high of 2420 yuan/ton and then declined, closing at 2384 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 0.21% increase from the previous day. The CBOT corn 09 contract closed at 411.25 cents per bushel, down 12.25 cents or 2.90% from the previous week, hitting a new low since October 2024. [5][13] - **Spot Price Review**: In the Northeast market, the price of second - class corn in Bayuquan was 2400 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Jinzhou Port, it was 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In the North China market, the price of deep - processed corn in Shouguang, Shandong was 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week, reaching a new high for the year. In the sales area, the mainstream price of second - class Northeast corn in Guangxi Shekou Port was 2440 - 2470 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week. [5][18][20] II.上周重要信息回顾 - Policy: Heilongjiang plans to expand the planting area of fine varieties, with a maximum subsidy of 500,000 yuan per variety; Russia lowers wheat export tariffs by 56% and corn export tariffs by 10%. - Weather: China Meteorological Administration predicts heavy rainfall in the southwest to the Huanghuai region in the next 10 days. - Trade: In May 2025, China's grain imports increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and from January to May, cumulative imports decreased by 29.7% year - on - year. - Industry: Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% starting August 1; the ANEC predicts that Brazil's corn exports in June will be 828,959 tons, a 15.7% decrease from last year. The IGC expects the global grain output in the 2025/26 season to increase by 3% year - on - year. [21][22] III.国内玉米供需分析 - **中储粮拍卖情况**: Last week, there was 1 corn procurement auction with a 100% transaction rate; 14 sales auctions with a 90.23% transaction rate; 7 two - way trading auctions with a 90.18% transaction rate; and no import corn auctions. [24][26] - **深加工企业玉米库存情况**: As of June 25, the total corn inventory of 96 major deep - processing enterprises was 4.567 million tons, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. [30] - **深加工企业玉米消费量情况**: From June 19 to 25, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1892 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.0129 million tons from the previous period. Different types of enterprises had different consumption changes. [33] - **饲企库存情况**: As of June 26, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 32.59 days, a decrease of 0.48 days from the previous week, a 1.45% decrease from the previous period, and a 3.43% increase year - on - year. [40] IV.玉米下游需求情况 - **玉米深加工企业开工情况**: Recently, the start - up rate of corn starch has shown a differentiated trend, and the overall industry start - up rate has slightly declined. From June 19 to 25, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 0.5462 million tons, and the corn starch output was 0.2646 million tons, with the start - up rate at 51.15%, a 0.46% decrease from the previous week. [44] - **玉米深加工企业利润情况**: Last week, the hedging profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 132 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Shandong, it was - 117 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week; in Heilongjiang, it was - 136 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. [49] - **玉米淀粉**: As of June 26, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 940,300 tons, a 2.27% decrease from the previous period and a 9.22% increase year - on - year. The corn starch market remains strong, with some enterprises slightly raising their quotes. [53] V.后市展望 - In the short term, the futures price may fluctuate due to price corrections in some regions and the pressure of new wheat listing. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap may drive inventory reduction, and the rigid increase in feed demand will gradually increase the probability of price recovery. [7][54] VI.操作策略 - In the short term, due to market uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long - term, closely monitor recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic and foreign supply - demand changes, and look for long - position layout opportunities in far - month contracts. [9][55]

Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures fluctuated within a range, first declining and then rising, with a slight overall increase. In the future, geopolitical conflicts will continue to cause the rubber price to fluctuate repeatedly. Although the supply side is affected by weather and boosts the rubber price, the market has entered the off - season of consumption, and the overall supply and demand of rubber still present a relatively loose pattern. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound movement in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the situation of the Israel - Iran conflict, weather disturbances in major rubber - producing areas, changes in terminal demand, the progress of the zero - tariff policy, the latest progress of the EU anti - dumping investigation, and changes in Sino - US tariffs [8][83] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Last week, the price of the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, fluctuated between 13,640 - 14,165 yuan/ton. As of the close on the afternoon of June 27, 2025, it closed at 14,045 yuan/ton, rising 145 points or 1.04% for the week [13] - **Spot Price**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,280 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18][20] - **Basis and Spread**: Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of June 27, 2025, the basis was maintained at 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [24] Important Market Information - **International Events**: On June 23, Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which led to a nearly 9% drop in international oil prices and a rise in the US stock market. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently, but does not rule out the possibility of an early interest rate cut. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations [27] - **US Economic Data**: In June, the preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52, the consumer confidence index dropped by 5.4 points to 93, the first - quarter real GDP final value decreased by 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, and the initial jobless claims last week decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 [28] - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's composite PMI in June was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's dropped to 48.5 [29] - **Automobile Industry**: In May, the UK's automobile exports to the US decreased by 55.4% year - on - year, and the automobile production decreased by 32.8% year - on - year to 49,810 vehicles, the lowest monthly output in 76 years. From January to May, China's automobile production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year, and the export of new energy vehicles increased by 64.6% year - on - year [29][32] Supply - side Situation - **Natural Rubber Production**: As of April 30, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main producing areas increased significantly compared with the previous month, while the production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. Thailand's production decreased significantly. The total production of major natural - rubber - producing countries in April 2025 was 505,200 tons, with a slight increase from the previous month [39] - **Synthetic Rubber Production**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly production of synthetic rubber was 699,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the cumulative production was 3.534 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [43][47] - **Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires**: As of May 31, 2025, China's import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 9,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [50] Demand - side Situation - **Tire Enterprise Operating Rate**: As of June 26, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.05%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.64%, an increase of 0.16% from the previous week [53] - **Automobile and Tire Production and Sales**: As of May 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% and a month - on - month increase of 1.14%. The monthly sales volume was 2.6863 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.15% and a month - on - month increase of 3.74%. The monthly sales volume of heavy trucks was 88,769 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.59% and a month - on - month increase of 1.26%. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 61.82 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 7.17% [57][60][65][68][73] Inventory - side Situation - As of June 27, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,960 tons, a decrease of 880 tons from the previous week. As of June 22, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons or 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 780,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 506,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39%. The combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in the Qingdao area was 617,300 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 81,200 tons, a decrease of 3.34%; the general trade inventory was 536,100 tons, an increase of 2.51% [80] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Currently, the global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. Recently, tapping work in major domestic and foreign producing areas has been affected by weather, resulting in limited raw material output and relatively short supply. However, there is a strong expectation of increased supply in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. In May 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [82] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The finished product inventory was at a historical high, and downstream factories made purchases as needed. In the terminal automobile market, from January to May, the production and sales volume of national automobiles and the sales volume of heavy trucks increased slightly year - on - year. In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.18% [82] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to rise slightly [82] Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a range - bound movement this week. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][84]

研究报告 纯碱周报 纯碱供强需弱 价格底部徘徊 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约SA2509 价格在1189-1219 元/吨之间运行， 价格保持低位震荡。 现货价格阴跌调整，尚未企稳，市场成交弱，下游拿货意向 不足，碱厂新订单接收缓慢。 【后市展望】 供给端：纯碱企业陆续有检修企业开始执行，产量及开工呈 现一定下降预期，但整体损失量相对前期下降。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 27 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 19 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.59%，报收 1194 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率有所回落，截止 2025 年 6 月 26 日，上周国内纯碱产量 71.67 万吨，环比下跌 3.80 万吨，跌幅 5.04%。其中，轻质碱产量 32.4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.03%. The production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35][36] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract is presented, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [8][9] - **Spot Price**: The market price of rebar is mentioned, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [10][12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data is from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [16] Important Market Information - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on implementing the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference and accelerating the construction of a science - and technology power. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. On June 25, the People's Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations with a one - year term [17] Supply - side Situation - The data of Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is involved, but specific data is not provided in the given content [18] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager index in the steel circulation industry of Lange Steel was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. Information on construction new starts, construction and completion floor area, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume is also mentioned [25][31] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, on the 27th, safety inspections in Guxian, Linfen, Shanxi Province became stricter. A local coal mine was shut down for rectification due to safety hazards, involving a production capacity of 900,000 tons, mainly producing low - sulfur primary coking coal, with a shutdown period of 10 - 15 days. Last week, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the factory inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 16.45%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 285,000 tons. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for two months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of pig iron [34] 后市展望 - Last week, the production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market ended its weak oscillation last week, with major indices rebounding across the board and the market center significantly shifting upwards. However, trading volume shrank in the second half of the week, indicating increased capital divergence. The index rebound was due to the Fed's more moderate stance on short - term interest rate cuts, the inflow of funds into the stablecoin sector due to regulatory policies, and the limited impact of the end of the Middle East (Israel - Iran) geopolitical conflict on the A - share market. It is expected that the stock index will likely oscillate in the future, with limited upside due to insufficient financing demand and a weak inflation environment, but a low probability of a significant decline due to the support of allocation - type funds. In a stable volatility environment, the calendar spread strategy can be used for stock index options to earn Theta returns [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On June 27, the three major A - share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% to close at 3424.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.34% to 10378.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.47% to 2124.34 points. Most industry sectors rose, with non - ferrous metals, diversified finance, professional services, small metals, electronic components, power supply equipment, and communication services leading the gains, while banks, insurance, the mining industry, and tourism hotels led the losses. Last week, stock index futures closed up collectively, with small - and medium - cap varieties rising significantly more than large - cap blue - chips. The four major stock index futures' main contracts saw both long and short positions increase significantly, with short - position increases greater than long - position increases, especially in the IM contract [5]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures fell, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds rose slightly. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.37% to close at 120.89 yuan, the 10 - year fell 0.11% to 109.045 yuan, the 5 - year rose 0.01% to 106.265 yuan, and the 2 - year rose 0.03% to 102.542 yuan [6]. - Last week, the central bank's open - market net injection was 126.72 billion yuan, resulting in abundant short - term liquidity [7][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From January to May, the total operating revenue of state - owned and state - holding enterprises nationwide decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 2.8% year - on - year [8]. - The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's 2025 Q2 meeting noted that macro - control has been strengthened this year, with moderately loose monetary policy, enhanced counter - cyclical adjustment, and the use of multiple monetary policy tools to serve high - quality economic development. The efficiency of the loan market quotation rate reform has continued to be released, the deposit rate market - based adjustment mechanism has played an effective role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has increased, and social financing costs are at a historically low level. The foreign exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, the current account surplus is stable, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, and the RMB exchange rate is floating bidirectionally and remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market is generally operating stably. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with weakening global economic growth momentum, increasing trade barriers, and differentiated economic performances among major economies, as well as uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [8]. - The US dollar's "bull - to - bear" trend has advanced further. The RMB exchange rate's appreciation has been relatively "restrained." Since June, more emerging - market investment funds have shifted their RMB positions from short to long, expecting the RMB's equilibrium exchange rate to rise to between 7.13 and 7.18 due to the easing of tariff frictions and the increasing expectation of an early Fed rate cut. They are also watching China's economic fundamentals and geopolitical risks to determine if the RMB will have a catch - up rally [9]. - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges are seeking public opinions on adjusting the price limit ratio of risk - warning stocks on the main board from 5% to 10%, to be consistent with other main - board stocks [9]. - Next week, 202.75 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 22.05 billion, 40.65 billion, 36.53 billion, 50.93 billion, and 52.59 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [10][11]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 28, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, with a percentile of 64.31%, and the PB was 1.36 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.19 times, with a percentile of 80.39%, and the PB was 1.22 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.47 times, with a percentile of 52.16%, and the PB was 2.13 times [13]. - The report also introduced the concept and calculation formulas of the stock - bond yield spread, including using the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the dividend yield [22][23].

华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 研究报告 油脂周报 利好刺激，油脂大幅上涨 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价大幅上涨，全周豆油 Y2509 合约上涨 4.75%， 以 8156 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2509 合约上涨 4.86%以 8536 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2509 合约上涨 4.47%，以 9726 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 6 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 798813 吨，较上月同期出口的 720422 吨 增加 10.88%。马棕榈油上涨 4.79%。 报告日期：2025 年 06 月 23 星期一 豆油方面：6 月 13 日，美国环保署（EPA）公布最新的掺混 标准提案，该提案大幅提高了 2026 年和 2027 年生物质基柴油义 务量目标，将2026 年生物燃料混合总量设定为240.2 亿加仑，202 ...

研究报告 纯碱周报 供需矛盾突出 纯碱价格弱势调整 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询资格证号：Z0019257 电话：15117218912 邮箱：houfan@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F3076451 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周纯碱主力合约 SA2509 价格在 1151-1193 元/吨之间运 行，价格保持低位震荡。 研究员：侯帆 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日下午收盘，当周纯碱期货主力合约 SA2509 上涨 17 元/吨，周度涨幅 1.47%，报收 1173 元/吨。 【基本面分析】 上周全国纯碱现货市场价格普遍下跌。 供给方面产量、产能利用率双增，上周纯碱产量、产能利用 率双增，截止 2025 年 6 月 19 日，国内纯碱产量 75.47 万吨，环 比增加 1.46 万吨，涨幅 1.97%。纯碱综合产能利用率 86.57%， 前一周 84.90%，环比增加 1.68%。 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 23 日星期一 库存情况纯碱整体出现累库现象，截止到 2025 年 6 月 19 日， 国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, influenced by the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,525 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 5.34% increase from the previous week. The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially. In the future, the focus will still be on the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel. If the conflict eases, methanol may fall significantly; if it continues, methanol will remain strong [6][7][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - **Futures Market**: From Monday to Thursday last week, methanol futures rose continuously due to the tense conflict between Israel and Iran. On Friday, there was profit - taking, and the futures fluctuated and consolidated. By Friday afternoon, the methanol weighted closed at 2,525 yuan/ton, up 5.34% from the previous week [14]. - **Spot Market**: Iran's methanol production unexpectedly dropped significantly, leading to a decline in exports. It is expected that the arrival volume in China in July will decrease. In the short term, alternative sources like Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot quickly make up for the shortage. This has stimulated the stocking demand of domestic traders, resulting in a continuous decrease in the inventory of northwest factories. The arbitrage window between the inland and ports has opened, but the overall supply is limited. The port is stronger than the inland due to weak downstream demand [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a 0.76% increase. The number of resumed production devices was more than that of maintenance devices [16]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, the average weekly start - up of the olefin industry decreased. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.53%, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The overall demand for traditional downstream products was weak [18]. - **Inventory**: As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,800 tons, a 9.37% decrease. The port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a 10.09% decrease [21][27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased significantly. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production increased, and the loss of gas - based production narrowed [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of resumed production devices is more than that of maintenance devices. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0763 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.14%, an increase from last week [35]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the olefin industry will continue to decrease. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde are expected to decrease [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 347,600 tons, a continued slight decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase [38].