Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the US stock market has put significant downward pressure on the A-share market. The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a sharp drop in the three major US stock indexes on the 4th. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below the 40,000-point mark, and the Nasdaq Composite Index entered a technical bear market. Against this backdrop, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3,861.6 points, down 47.2 points or 1.21% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2,664.4 points, down 16.2 points or 0.6%; IC2504 closed at 5,822.4 points, down 47.2 points or 0.8%; IM2504 closed at 6,168.4 points, down 44.2 points or 0.71% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector's prosperity [7]. - In March, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [10]. - In March, the Composite PMI Output Index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall acceleration in the expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [12]. 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of April 7, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.5 times, with a quantile of 64.1%, and the PB was 1.85 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.42 times, with a quantile of 48.04%, and the PB was 1.33 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.69 times, with a quantile of 63.73%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, with a quantile of 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [17]. 3.4 Other Data - The equity-bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity-bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [25][26]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The US stock market experienced a sharp decline due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.50%, the S&P 500 Index fell 5.97%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.82%. The Nasdaq entered a technical bear market. Against this background, the A-share market will face huge downward pressure on Monday [28][29].

沪铝或维持震荡偏弱运行 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色板块研究员：刘江 期货从业资格证号：F0305841 投资咨询资格证号：Z0016251 研究报告 铝周报 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：451591573@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情为主。 价格范围在 20335 元/吨附近至最高 20635 元/吨左右。 【基本面分析】 美国关税大超预期，市场避险情绪升温。电解铝现货价格或 维持震荡偏弱运行，升贴水维持在平水状态。氧化铝库存小幅下 降，库存水平处于历史低位。全国铝棒库存继续下降，库存水平 仍处于历史高位。沪铝库存下降明显，库存水平处于近年来较低 位。LME 铝库存小幅下降，注销仓单占比小幅上升。 【后市展望】 短期内，铝价或以震荡偏弱趋势为主。 （一）期货价格 根据上海期货交易所数据统计，上周，沪铝期货主力合约 AL2505 价格以震荡下行行情 为主。价格范围在 2033 ...

行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 0.71% 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.13%， 环比增加 1.02%，同比增加 5.32%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.63%，环比增 加 0.55%，同比增加 6.02%；钢厂盈利率 55.41%，环比增加 1.73%，同比 增加 22.08%；日均铁水产量 238.73 万吨，环比增加 1.45 万吨。 后市展望：上周螺纹钢表需连续第七周增加，厂库连续第六周减少， 社库连续第四周减少，产量连续两周增加。受关税超预期影响，清明节期 间全球资产遭受重挫，宏观情绪变量对盘面影响超过基本面，近期市场波 动增加，建议投资者保持谨慎态度。 螺纹周报 研究报告 钢价或受宏观情绪面影响，难以有独立行情 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 7 日星期一 摘要： 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 据此入市风险自负。 ...

研究报告 油脂周报 关税影响，油脂走势分化 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价走势分化，全周豆油 Y2505 合约下跌 1.05%， 以 7902 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2505 合约上涨 1.21%以 9198 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2505 合约上涨 2.84%，以 9534 元/吨报收。 【重要资讯】： 【后市展望】： 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 4 月 3 日，美国宣布对全球各国实行不同税率的关税政策， 全球金融市场动荡。后期贸易战可能会对油脂市场产生较大的影 响，但影响效果不好判断。后市市场仍存在较多不确定性。主要 是棕榈油产地进入增产周期，二季度供应向松，而且此前印尼 B40 政策连续延迟消耗市场信心，产地诸多利空因素等待交易。另外 国内油脂已步入季节性消费淡季，随着巴西大豆到港，工厂开机 率将再次提升，国内豆油供应 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - In April, the market will face the dual tests of "policy verification" and "overseas risks". The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and the direction choice needs to wait for the key signals to land. The market showed a volatile characteristic of "two steps forward and one step back" in March due to the tug - of - war between economic recovery and overseas disturbances. Investors should closely track macro - economic data, Fed policy trends, and domestic industrial policy implementation effects in April [21][22] 2. Key Points by Section (1) Market Quotes Review - Last week, IC2504 closed at 5819.6 points, up 19.8 points or 0.34% from the previous month. IM2504 closed at 6184.0 points, up 4.4 points or 0.07% from the previous month [3] (2) Economic Data - In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing an accelerated expansion pace. The composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall accelerated expansion of corporate production and business activities [6][8][9] (3) Valuation Analysis - As of March 2, the PE of the CSI 500 index was 28.4 times, with a percentile of 63.41%, and the PB was 1.85 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 index was 37.89 times, with a percentile of 46.97%, and the PB was 2.11 times [13] (4) Other Data - Stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating it: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [20] (5) Overseas Environment - The implementation of US tariff policies and rising debt pressure are intensifying the volatility of US stocks. In March, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) soared to 35, and the panic sentiment has spread to the Hong Kong stock market and the A - share technology sector. If the scope and intensity of tariffs in April exceed expectations, the risk of market correction may increase; otherwise, risk appetite may recover [21] (6) Capital and Sentiment - In March, the margin trading balance first rose and then fell to over 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating that leveraged funds are becoming more cautious and the motivation for incremental funds to enter the market is insufficient. As the earnings season approaches, performance differentiation may further intensify stock price fluctuations, and the stock index futures market will rely more on macro - data and policy expectations [22]

中国主要经济数据逐步好转 证监许可【2012】1087 号 有色研究员：刘江 3月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.5%，比上月上升0.3个 百分点，制造业景气水平继续回升。新订单指数为51.8%，比上月上升 0.7个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。全国规模以上 工业企业实现利润总额下降幅度缩小。中国主要经济数据逐步好转， 预期向好趋势未变。 铜冶炼厂粗炼费继续下降 铜月报 铜供需偏紧，沪铜或高位震荡 内容提要 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 全球铜消费依然较强，铜供给增速较低，供需紧张局面仍存。中 国铜冶炼厂粗炼费（TC）、精炼费（RC）继续下降，并处于历史级别 低位。硫酸价格大涨，支撑铜冶炼企业生产。铜冶炼企业减产预期较 强。2月，美国废铜出口逐步减少，精废价差由负转正。 电网建设投资快速增长 2025 年 1-2 月，电网建设月度投资额为 436.2 亿元，同比增长 33.48，增速较去年同期大幅扩大。沪铜库存持续下降，库存处于近年 来较高水平。LME 铜库存大幅去库，COMEX 铜累库高位运行。综合来看， 铜价可能以震荡行情为主。 风险提示：美联储政策变化超预期，经济数 ...

研究报告 玻璃月报 预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行 后市展望：3 月整体市场仍处于偏弱格局，且生产端暂无冷修计划， 行业库存累增，中下游提货意愿较弱，出货偏慢，平板玻璃市场弱势运行； 预计 4 月玻璃产线冷修计划和复产点火计划体量或将变化不大，需求预计 改善空间有限，预计 4 月玻璃期价将低位运行。 交易策略：建议观望 【投资评级：★】 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：3 月玻璃 2509 合约下跌 7.21% 基本面：据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 2 月我国平板玻璃产量为 15,173 万重量箱， ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 猪价继续承压运行，盘面或将偏弱震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8582647 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 操作上，建议观望为主。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 研究员：张正卯 2025 年 3 月生猪期货主力合约 LH2505 期价在 12940-13785 元/吨之间运行。整体来看，3 月生猪期货主力合约呈现震荡上行， 冲高回落走势，当月小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日周一下午收盘，当月生猪主力合约 LH2505 上涨 310 元/吨，涨幅 2.4%，报收 13245 元/吨。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日星期二 2025 年 3 月，生猪期价主力合约呈现震荡上行，冲高回落走 势 ...

农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 研究报告 豆粕月报 贸易战开始，豆粕期价震荡整理 华龙期货投资咨询部 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 2025 年 3 月豆粕期价震荡整理，2 月豆粕加权下跌 0.95%，以 2932 报收；菜粕加权上涨 2.83%，以 2654 报收。 国际市场上，美豆连续下跌 1.07%，以 1014.00 报收，美豆 粉下跌 0.53%，以 300.20 报收。 【重要资讯】： 全球2024/25年度大豆产量预估为4.2076亿吨(持平于2 月预估)，期末存预估为 12141 万吨(2 月预估为 12434 万吨)； 全球 2023/24 年度大豆产量预估为 3.9497 亿吨(持平于 2 月 预估)，期末存预估为 11255 万吨(2 月预估为 11249 万吨)。 【后市展望】： 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 01 日星期二 3 月份 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2504 closed at 3908.8 points, up 2.8 points or 0.07% from the previous week; IH2504 closed at 2680.4 points, up 6.0 points or 0.22%; IC2504 closed at 5869.6 points, down 44.0 points or 0.74%; IM2504 closed at 6212.6 points, down 105.6 points or 1.67% [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 910.99 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit was 348.77 billion yuan, up 2.1%; joint - stock enterprises' profit was 673.92 billion yuan, down 2.0%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit was 230.46 billion yuan, up 4.9%; private enterprises' profit was 220.99 billion yuan, down 9.0% [5] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of March 31, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.49 times, the quantile was 63.9%, and the PB was 1.86 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.43 times, the quantile was 48.43%, and the PB was 1.35 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.72 times, the quantile was 65.29%, and the PB was 1.21 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 38.3 times, the quantile was 50.39%, and the PB was 2.13 times [9] 4. Other Data - The stock - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1 / index static P/E) - 10 - year treasury bond yield; the other is 10 - year treasury bond yield - index static dividend yield [15] 5. Core View - During the trading cycle from March 24 to March 28, the market showed a weak and volatile adjustment trend. As of the close on Friday, the total A - share trading volume was lower than the five - day average for five consecutive days. The average A - share price fell 2.28% this week, and the amplitude was only 3.11%, hitting the lowest level since mid - February. The current market is at a critical turning point. Investors are advised to maintain their existing positions, wait and see cautiously, and make decisions after further observing the market trend [18]