Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.45%, and it increased by 1.3% during the night session on Friday [4] - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35] Group 3: Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific data provided [7] - **Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific data provided [14] Important Market Information - On July 15, the China Iron and Steel Industry Association proposed suggestions at the meeting, including controlling increments, optimizing stocks, promoting mergers and reorganizations, and ensuring smooth exits. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote key industries to adjust structures and eliminate backward production capacity [17] - Canada will expand the scope of import steel tariff quotas and tighten existing quotas from August 1, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce believes this violates WTO rules [18] Supply - side Situation - No specific data provided [19] Demand - side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing manager index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [25] Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.31% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 28.14%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons [34] - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8151 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 346,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3876 million tons, an increase of 96,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 137.8521 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 193,200 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 323,000 tons [34] 后市 Outlook - The production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week last week. The steel mill inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, and the social inventory changed from decreasing to increasing. The "anti-involution" supports steel prices, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate stronger [5][34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach with low-level fluctuations [6][35]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, 2025, China's A-share market showed a slight upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5711 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a strengthening trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.21%, 0.56%, 1.36%, and 1.48% respectively [3]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the first half of 2025. Some members put forward suggestions on stabilizing and activating the capital market, promoting technological innovation in the private sector, and other aspects [8]. - From 2020 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [8]. - In the first half of this year, central state-owned enterprises achieved an added value of 5.2 trillion yuan and completed fixed - asset investment of 2 trillion yuan. In the second half of the year, they will focus on developing new - quality productive forces [8]. - From July 12 - 18, there were 97 domestic investment and financing events, a 21.25% increase from the previous week. The total disclosed financing amount was about 5.041 billion yuan, an 8.85% increase. The artificial intelligence field had the highest disclosed financing amount, about 2.486 billion yuan [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.7268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.2011 trillion yuan. This week, 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan of MLF, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits are due [9]. 3. Valuation Analysis - As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.32 times, with a percentile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.40 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.33 times, with a percentile of 82.75%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.1 times, with a percentile of 61.96%, and the PB was 2.23 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [19]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF2509) closed at 4041.80 points on July 18, with a weekly increase of 1.21%. The current low risk - free interest rate and reduced supply of high - yield risk - free assets have created favorable conditions for incremental funds to enter the market. The market is expected to continue a moderately strong trend this week, but there may be insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement in the short term. Traders are advised to control risks [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - **Profit**: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - **Overall**: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is ★★ [7] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 2510 contract for rebar rose 1.65%. Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][6][37][38] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the rebar futures main contract daily K-line chart [8][10] - **Spot Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [16][18] Important Market Information - On July 11, 2025, relevant departments released a notice to add green power consumption ratios for the steel, cement, and polysilicon industries and new data centers at national hub nodes in 2025 [19] Supply - Side Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [20][23] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [27] Fundamental Analysis - On July 11, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee believed that the coke market should raise prices as soon as possible. The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to be increased, with different price increases for different types of coke, and the adjusted price will be implemented from 0:00 on July 14 [36] 后市展望 - Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the improvement of the upstream coking coal and coke fundamentals drives the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly [37] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [38]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The current corn price has limited upside and downside potential, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, while closely monitoring recent macro - policy adjustments and domestic supply - demand changes [8][75][76]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: Last week, the main continuous contract of corn futures oscillated weakly. As of last Friday's close, it was reported at 2,306 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, with a trading volume of 509,176 lots and an open interest of 1,030,900 lots [5][14]. - **Spot Price**: The price of corn in the Northeast, North China, and sales regions continued to be weak. In the Northeast, the terminal purchase price generally decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; in North China, the deep - processing enterprise purchase price decreased by 30 - 40 yuan/ton; in the sales regions, the port quotation was under pressure, and the north - south price difference narrowed [7][18][19]. 3.2. Corn Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Planting Area and Yield**: In recent years, the domestic corn planting area has remained above 38 million hectares. It is expected that in 2025, the national corn planting area will be 40.47 million hectares, a decrease of 110,000 hectares from 2024, and the yield will be 276.59 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons from 2024, an increase of 1.87% [25][32]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: Last week, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 4.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% and a year - on - year increase of 3.55%. The inventory increase was concentrated in the Northeast [36]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Startup**: The recent startup rate of deep - processing enterprises has been oscillating at a low level. This week, the startup rate in the Northeast region may further drop below 50% [41]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Consumption**: From July 3rd to July 9th, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.1578 million tons of corn, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons [45]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10th, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [48]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Profit**: Last week, the hedging by - product profit of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang increased month - on - month, but was still in the negative range [53]. 3.3. Analysis of Related Products - **Corn Starch**: As of July 10th, the mainstream transaction price of corn starch in Shandong decreased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The national average price of corn starch was 2,835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The market price continued to be weak [60]. - **Wheat**: As of July 10th, the national average price of corn was 2,421 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat was 2,440 yuan/ton. The wheat price continued to decline last week [67]. - **Sorghum**: As of July 10th, the price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port was 20 yuan/ton lower than that of corn. The price of imported sorghum remained stagnant, and the market transaction was light [70]. - **Pigs**: Last week, the national average price of live pig slaughter was 14.96 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.54% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remained weak [74].

研究报告 橡胶周报 宏观提振供需改善，胶价或将震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13900-14185 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡上行，总体小幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 7 月 11 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14360 元/吨，当周上涨 355 点，涨幅 2.53%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡上行，总体小幅 上涨。 研究报告 报告日期：2025 年 7 月 14 日星期一 展望后市，从宏观面来看，关税风云再起，影响全球市场； 我国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨，6 月 PPI 环比下降。从基本面来看，供 给方面，近期主产区受天气扰动原料供应短缺支撑胶价，但是 后期存在较强的供应上量预期。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工 率均有回升 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the trend of soda ash is weakly stable with relatively flexible prices. The spot supply - demand is weak, providing insufficient support for futures prices, and investors should avoid blind optimism [9][11][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Review** - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 fluctuated between 1244 - 1163 yuan/ton, maintaining a low - level oscillation. As of the afternoon close on July 4, 2025, the main futures contract SA2509 rose 43 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.66%, closing at 1217 yuan/ton [6]. **Fundamental Analysis** - **Supply Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. Among them, the light soda ash production was 308,800 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 400,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, remaining unchanged. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the joint - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease [7][12][14]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,863,400 tons, an increase of 15,300 tons or 0.83% compared to the previous Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 791,300 tons, a decrease; the heavy soda ash inventory was 1,072,100 tons, an increase. The enterprise shipment slowed down, and some enterprises had inventory accumulation [8][16]. - The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 655,100 tons, a 1.69% decrease; the overall shipment rate was 92.40%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The supply was adjusted at a high level, mainly shipping previous orders, and the production - sales rate remained in a weak balance [18]. - **Demand Side** - As of July 10, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase compared to the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous period and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes or 2.87% compared to the previous period, and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1 day compared to the previous period [26]. **Market Price** - The prices of some raw materials and products changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 2 yuan/ton or 0.32%; the price of well - mined salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of heavy soda ash in South China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 3 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 46 yuan/ton or 1.98% [32]. **Market Outlook** - **Supply Side**: Production and capacity utilization remain unchanged, with narrow fluctuations in device operation and relatively stable supply. The inventory increased slightly [9][34]. - **Demand Side**: The supply of soda ash is adjusted at a high level, downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing at low prices and making appropriate supplements. The overall intention to stock is low, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the production - sales rate remains in a weak balance [9][34]. - **Production Forecast**: It is expected that the float glass production line will be stable this week, while the photovoltaic glass has a reduction expectation of about 2300 tons [11][34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The A-share market showed a volatile upward trend last week, with the futures market showing a differentiated pattern. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A-share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On July 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors mostly rose, with shipbuilding, small metals, securities, diversified finance, and software development leading the gains, while glass fiber, engineering consulting services, and the banking sector leading the losses [2]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a differentiated trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.46%, 1.27%, 2.69%, and 3.40% respectively [2]. - Last week, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell [3]. Fundamental Analysis - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management and adjust the assessment methods of "return on net assets" and "(state - owned) capital preservation and appreciation rate" [7]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will revise the compilation plan of the ChiNext Composite Index on July 25, including introducing a monthly elimination mechanism for risk - warning stocks and an ESG negative elimination mechanism [7]. - As of July 12, 483 companies have disclosed their semi - annual performance forecasts, of which 281 reported good news, accounting for 58.18%, and 155 are expected to have a net profit increase of over 100% [8]. - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan. This week, 42.57 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 10 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15 [8]. Valuation Analysis - As of July 11, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.34 times, the percentile was 72.35%, and the PB was 1.39 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.42 times, the percentile was 84.12%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.33 times, the percentile was 58.24%, and the PB was 2.18 times [9]. - Two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread are provided, one based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio and the other based on the dividend yield [15][17]. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a volatile upward trend, but there were obvious differences among varieties. The market has strong expectations for policies at the end of July, which has increased risk appetite. However, factors such as weak manufacturing PMI, deflation pressure, and insufficient domestic demand have affected the performance of some contracts. The loose liquidity environment supports the A - share market, and the market may maintain an upward - biased state in the short term. Traders are advised to avoid blind chasing and seize callback opportunities [20].