Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - **Arbitrage**: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [6][44] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai copper futures showed a fluctuating and slightly weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 78,490 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 79,290 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices fluctuated, with contract prices ranging from 9,671 - 9,791 US dollars/ton [12] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In July, the real year - on - year growth of the added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.38% compared to the previous month. From January to July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.3% year - on - year. Among 41 major industries, 35 had year - on - year growth in added value [16] - Fed Chairman Powell hinted on the 22nd that despite current inflationary risks, the Fed may cut interest rates in the coming months [43] 3. Spot Analysis - As of August 22, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,825 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 79,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The electrolytic copper premium was around 135 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 37.65 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 3.76 cents/pound. In July 2025, the monthly refined copper output was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the previous month, but a 14% year - on - year increase [25] - As of July 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.1694 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly automobile output was 2.5102 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.4% [30] 5. Inventory Situation - As of August 22, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 81,698 tons, a decrease of 4,663 tons from the previous week. As of August 20, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 7.26%. As of August 21, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 271,696 tons, an increase of 1,160 tons from the previous trading day [34] - As of August 21, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,400 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 15,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased by 800 tons from the previous week [34] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the content in the macroeconomic aspect and supply - demand and inventory parts, including industrial added - value growth, Fed's potential interest - rate cut, copper smelting fees, refined copper output, copper product and automobile output, and inventory changes [43] 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend. Price fluctuations will narrow, offering limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [44]

Report Investment Rating No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a stage of game between policy expectations and fundamental reality, and is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the spread changes between index futures contracts to seize cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, while being vigilant against external market fluctuations and rapid style switching risks [30]. Summary by Directory 1. A - share Market Review - On August 22, the A - share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3800 points, reaching a ten - year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.45% to 3825.76 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.07% to 12166.06 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.36% to 2682.55 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 8.59% to 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. 2. Bond Market - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 1.05% to 115.980 yuan, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.52% to 107.660 yuan, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.28% to 105.370 yuan, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to 102.318 yuan [2]. 3. Domestic Stock Index Futures Market - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures (IF) closed at 4394.0 on August 22, up 4.39% for the week; the SSE 50 futures (IH) closed at 2942.0, up 3.36%; the CSI 500 futures (IC) closed at 6810.4, up 4.28%; the CSI 1000 futures (IM) closed at 7348.6, up 3.70% [7]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that the policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has achieved obvious results. It is necessary to strengthen policy support, release domestic demand potential, and stimulate sports consumption [8]. - From January to July, the number of newly established foreign - invested enterprises in China increased by 14.1% year - on - year, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 13.4%. The actual use of foreign capital in high - tech industries was 137.36 billion yuan, with significant growth in some sub - sectors [8]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Fed and fully digested the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.3652 trillion yuan. It will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on August 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month [9]. 5. Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.73 times, the percentile was 80%, and the PB was 1.45 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.71 times, the percentile was 88.82%, and the PB was 1.29 times; the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 32.02 times, the percentile was 76.27%, and the PB was 2.17 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 44.56 times, the percentile was 70.39%, and the PB was 2.47 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond spread [24]. 6. China - Buffett Indicator - On August 21, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 86.00%. The current "total market capitalization/GDP" was at the 85.11% percentile in historical data and the 88.43% percentile in the past 10 - year data [27]. 7. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the stock index futures market continued to rise in a volatile manner. Small and medium - cap varieties outperformed large - cap contracts. The market showed the characteristics of "strong index and differentiated stocks". The main indexes' valuation percentiles were at a relatively high level in history, and technical adjustment risks needed to be noted [30]. 8. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral trading: IF and IH still have long - term layout value; IM and IC are more representative of industrial structure upgrading directions but have higher volatility [31]. - Arbitrage: Cross - variety arbitrage needs to capture the rhythm of market style switching [31]. - Options: A covered call strategy can be considered to increase returns [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Rebar 2601 contract fell 2.05%. On Friday night, affected by coking enterprise production restrictions, coking coal drove up steel prices. The black market outlook remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [5] - The operation suggestions are to take a bullish approach on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [5][39] Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Focuses on the daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract [8] Spot Price - As of August 22, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [12][15] Basis and Spread - Involves the rebar basis (active contract) [18] Important Market Information - On August 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1 - year term. [19] - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association stated that the steel industry will continue its stable and positive trend. Domestic steel consumption has decreased from nearly 1 billion tons to 892 million tons in recent years and is expected to continue to decline slowly but will remain above 800 million tons before 2030. [19] Supply - side Situation - Covers the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and rebar production [20][22] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing managers' index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a 4.2% month - on - month increase. [27] - This section also includes data on construction new starts, construction and completion floor areas, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai's terminal wire and screw purchases. [29][30][32] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,444.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 62.63 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 341.04 million tons, a decrease of 5.76 million tons. At 45 ports, the total inventory was 13,845.20 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.93 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 325.74 million tons, a decrease of 8.93 million tons. [35][36] - In July, the national raw coal output was 38,099 million tons, the lowest since May 2024, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.52%. [36] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.42%, an increase of 0.08%; the average daily coke output was 65.45 million tons, an increase of 0.07 million tons; the coke inventory was 64.37 million tons, an increase of 1.86 million tons; the total coking coal inventory was 966.41 million tons, a decrease of 10.47 million tons; the available days of coking coal were 11.1 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. [36] - There are rumors that Shandong coking enterprises will limit production by 30% - 50% from August 16 to early September. Currently, a few Shandong coking enterprises have further increased production restrictions to 20% - 30%, and the restriction ratio will continue to rise. [5][36] - In July 2025, global crude steel production was 150 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%; from January to July, it was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. China's steel output in July was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. [5][36] - In mid - August, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 400,000 tons (5.0% increase); compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 1.72 million tons (16.9% decrease). Different regions had different inventory changes. [37] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 5.89%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.95%; the steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86% and a year - on - year increase of 63.64%; the average daily hot metal output was 2.4075 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 90,000 tons. [37] - The PPA data shows that the iron ore exports from Port Hedland in July 2025 decreased to 45.9693 million tons from 54.5848 million tons in June. [37] 后市展望 (Outlook) - The outlook for the black market remains bullish, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. [38] Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips. - For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. - For options, sell deep out - of - the - money put options opportunistically. [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The core contradiction in the soda ash market remains unchanged, with high supply, high inventory, and weak demand continuing to suppress prices. Although the profit margin of the soda ash industry is deteriorating, large - scale and deep - seated losses have not occurred. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the near term, and attention should be paid to the cost support of raw material prices such as coal and fundamental changes [9][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of August 21, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash increased by 1.32% to 771,400 tons, and the overall capacity utilization rate rose to 88.48%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 346,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 425,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate of ammonia - soda process was 91%, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the overall capacity utilization rate of combined production process was 83.65%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more decreased by 1.90% week - on - week [10][12]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,500 tons, or 0.71%. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 688,100 tons, or 56.28%. The inventory accumulation slowed down [14]. - **Shipment Volume and Shipment Rate**: The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises this week was 754,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.97%; the overall shipment rate was 97.80%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57 percentage points. The production and sales rate of enterprises was close to balance [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 21, 2025, the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process soda ash in China was 11.90 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22.50 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of combined - process soda ash (double - ton) was - 8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton [20][24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production**: As of August 21, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 14th. The weekly production of national float glass from August 15 - 21, 2025 was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.16% [27]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 180,000 heavy boxes, or 0.28%, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. The inventory days were 27.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous period [31]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - The prices of some products in the domestic soda ash market changed. The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 10 yuan/ton, or 1.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 17 yuan/ton, or 1.46%; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, or 1.11%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 107 yuan/ton, or 4.76%. The prices of some products remained unchanged, and the prices of light and heavy soda ash in some regions decreased [37][39]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The high supply, high inventory, and weak demand in the soda ash market continued to suppress prices. The profit margin deteriorated rapidly, and the downstream float glass inventory was high, and the recovery of the real - estate chain was slow, suppressing the restocking space. - The industry has not yet experienced large - scale and deep - seated losses, and it may not be the right time for policies to force capacity reduction. - It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the near term, and attention should be paid to the cost support of raw material prices such as coal and fundamental changes [40]. 3.5 Operation Suggestions - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound and then go short, and focus on the support strength of cash - flow cost. - **Arbitrage**: Wait for the opportunity of inter - period reverse arbitrage, as the near - month contracts are more obviously suppressed by high inventory. - **Options**: Industrial enterprises can consider buying out - of - the - money put options or constructing bear - spread strategies for hedging to prevent the risk of continuous price decline [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the outlook for the black sector remains bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [5][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: Involves the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures [6] - **Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin was 3,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [12] - **Basis and Spread**: No specific analysis results are provided, only the topic is mentioned [13] Important Market Information - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%; residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [16] - On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months [16] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.189 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year increase of 61.04% [5][33] - In July, China's steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; from January to July, the steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. In July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In July, China's pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to July, the pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [5][33] - In early August, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [34] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% [25] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 138.1927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3467 million tons, an increase of 0.1282 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 93, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8157 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.143 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 0.1035 million tons [33] 后市展望 - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the black sector is still expected to be bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][37] - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [5][37] - **Options**: Consider selling put options [5][37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol remains weak, and it is likely to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][10][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in the methanol fundamentals, methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2,383 yuan/ton, a 1.85% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market was slightly weaker, while the inland market continued to rise [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,863,275 tons, an increase of 18,050 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a 0.97% increase from the previous week [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products varied. The olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly, the dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate increased by 34.15% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde all increased [18][20] 2.3 Inventory - As of August 13, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, a 0.64% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, an 8.90% decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory continued to increase significantly, with a 10.41% week - on - week increase [21][24] 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol showed differences. Coal - based profits narrowed, coke - oven gas - based profits increased, and natural - gas - based profits had limited fluctuations [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, it is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.8948 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.80%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The start - up rates of the olefin and dimethyl ether industries are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde may change differently. The overall demand for methanol remains weak [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 295,800 tons, with little change from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Aluminum prices are likely to show a fluctuating trend. Recently, aluminum price fluctuations have been small, the basis has changed little, and there are limited arbitrage opportunities. It is advisable to wait and see for option contracts for the time being [6][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a fluctuating market, ranging from around 20,585 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,850 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated, with the contract price ranging from 2,581 - 2,639 US dollars/ton [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to July, China's macro - data weakened. The national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The US Treasury Secretary called on the Federal Reserve to start a rate - cut cycle, suggesting a reduction of at least 150 basis points from the current level and a 50 - basis - point cut in September [5][14][40]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of August 8, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 20,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,600 yuan/ton, 20,880 yuan/ton, 20,640 yuan/ton, and 20,590 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic aluminum premium or discount was maintained at around a discount of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [19]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 37,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous period. The monthly electrolytic aluminum output in July was 3.78 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - As of August 15, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 120,653 tons, an increase of 7,039 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.94%. As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 526,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons from the previous day [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].