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燃料油日报:盘面弱势震荡,短期市场矛盾有限-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:02
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The fuel oil market follows the rhythm of the crude oil end, with the FU and LU disk showing weak and volatile movements, and the short - term trend is unclear. The high - low sulfur spread has continuously rebounded from the bottom, indicating a marginal change in the strength - weakness pattern. The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers. Overall, the high - low sulfur spread is expected to maintain a slightly stronger volatile trend in the short term, with limited upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Sections Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.04% at 2,728 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.24% at 3,269 yuan/ton [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil downstream power plant demand is in the off - season, the spot market has loosened, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply from Russia and Iran still has uncertainties due to sanctions and drone attacks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Kuwait and Nigeria has marginally declined recently, the pressure has eased, and there is room for market structure repair, but it still lacks sufficient positive drivers [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2]. - Cross - variety: Go long on the LU2601 - FU2601 spread at low levels [2]. - Cross - period: No strategy [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].
农产品日报:现货供应宽松,豆粕维持震荡-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the bean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The current South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the overall supply is ample, exerting pressure on prices. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans is sufficient, and the inventories of soybeans and bean meal remain at relatively high levels. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be closely monitored. For corn, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2549 yuan/ton, a change of + 12 yuan/ton (+ 0.47%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 2, a change of + 5 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 68, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 58, a change of - 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, an increase of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 181, a change of - 2 from the previous day. - Market Information: On November 4th, the rural economic department of Paraná state reported that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season in Paraná state had reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from the previous week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition, 6% in medium condition, and 1% in poor condition [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The overall supply is ample, and there is pressure on the price upside. In China, the supply of soybeans and bean meal is also relatively loose. After the Sino - US negotiations, future import conditions and changes in the import cost of US soybeans need to be focused on [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2154 yuan/ton, an increase of + 20 yuan/ton (+ 0.94%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2469 yuan/ton, an increase of + 18 yuan/ton (+ 0.73%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 1, a change of - 30 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 81, a change of - 18 from the previous day. - Market Information: The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the grain output in Ukraine this year is expected to be 59 million tons, higher than last year's 56 million tons. The wheat and barley harvests are completed, with yields the same as last year. The wheat output is between 22 million and 22.5 million tons, and the barley output is 5.3 million tons. The Russian government plans to continue implementing the grain export quota system in 2026, with an expected scale of 20 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are relatively low, with weak inventory - building intentions and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The new grain is being concentratedly listed, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress of farmers and the inventory - holding efforts of traders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
石油沥青日报:需求持续走弱,局部现货下跌-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 05:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish approach for unilateral trading, advocating short - term observation. There are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand in the asphalt market continues to weaken, and local spot prices are falling. The asphalt market is in a weak and volatile state, lacking positive driving factors. This is due to the weakening and volatile crude oil prices, insufficient cost - side support, a weak asphalt fundamentals, the entry of northern terminals into the shutdown phase, low enthusiasm for traders to stock up, and the release of low - price forward resources by northern refineries [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6th, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2601 in the afternoon session was 3,109 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton or 2.05% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,642 lots, a decrease of 1,885 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 232,766 lots, an increase of 54,232 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,306 - 3,750 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,050 - 3,620 yuan/ton; South China: 3,270 - 3,520 yuan/ton; East China: 3,410 - 3,500 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot prices in the Northeast, Shandong, and South China regions continued to decline, while those in other regions remained relatively stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, with a focus on short - term observation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures (unilateral and main contract), domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social) [3].
新能源及有色金属日报:消费端表现仍较好,关注矿端复产进度-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:23
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The recent inventory has been continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton, the upstream has a strong willingness to hedge. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine resumes production, the inventory may shift from destocking to stockpiling, and the market may decline at that time [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 79,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,500 yuan/ton, a 1.95% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 582,033 lots, and the open interest was 471,983 lots, compared with 453,260 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,300 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,420 lots, a decrease of 410 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 - 82,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,800 - 78,600 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 925 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market transactions were slightly dull, and downstream material enterprises maintained the rhythm of on - demand procurement [1]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene and salt lake ends above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October [1]. - In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector (both commercial and passenger vehicles) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [1]. - This week, the demand for power batteries continued to operate at a high level, and the cell prices were relatively stable. In the passenger vehicle sector, domestic terminal sales remained high, and some mainstream car companies increased promotion and production scheduling, driving a steady increase in power battery installation demand. In the commercial vehicle sector, affected by the expected vehicle purchase tax halving policy next year, some demand was advanced to the fourth quarter of this year, driving a significant increase in power battery orders [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,753 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and intermediate links all decreased, indicating strong support from the consumer end recently [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided. - Options: No strategy is provided.
新能源及有色金属日报:矿端干扰事件频发,镍不锈钢小幅反弹-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:沪铝重心持续上移-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy for SHFE aluminum: Long the nearby contract and short the distant contract [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas supply is affected by production cuts, while consumption is expected to enter the peak season. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and the upward space may be opened if the inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. The cost side has a slight downward space, and the spot price is difficult to rise. The current price valuation is low, and attention should be paid to potential emergencies [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 30 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 150 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium remains unchanged at - 145 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,355 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21,630 yuan/ton, a change of 280 yuan/ton. The highest price is 21,690 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 21,330 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 178,925 lots, and the open interest is 228,130 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 622,000 tons, a change of - 5,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory is 63,969 tons, a change of - 225 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory is 548,375 tons, a change of - 2,075 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On November 6, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,840 yuan/ton, Shandong is 2,790 yuan/ton, Henan is 2,865 yuan/ton, Guangxi is 2,970 yuan/ton, Guizhou is 2,980 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 317 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2,770 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2,787 yuan/ton, a change of 24 yuan/ton or 0.87% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price is 2,799 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 2,764 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 204,250 lots, and the open interest is 423,108 lots [2]. 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 6, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 16,900 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum procurement price is 17,100 yuan/ton, both with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 20,800 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 59,900 tons [4]. 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,042 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 142 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Overseas production cuts due to accidents, and the supply is not in surplus even with new and restarted capacity expectations. Consumption is expected to enter the peak season in November - December. With macro - positive factors, the decline of aluminum prices is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The price of alumina continues to decline. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the cost side has a slight downward space. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the spot price is difficult to rise [7][8].
新能源及有色金属日报:国内库存累库趋势难形成-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified 2. Report's Core View - The social inventory of zinc ingots is unlikely to continue accumulating and may even experience destocking, with strong consumption despite high domestic supply [5]. - The expected growth rate of supply is declining, and if the TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease [5]. - LME warehouse receipts remain at a low level, the spot premium is still high, the export window remains open, and the warehouse receipt risk has not been alleviated [5]. - Micro - data is gradually shifting from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains positive [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $98.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,500 yuan per ton with a change of 0 yuan from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,460 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,605 yuan per ton, closed at 22,675 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,028 lots, and the open interest was 113,005 lots. The highest price was 22,685 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,535 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 158,700 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are decreasing, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for ore procurement is strong, leading to a significant decline in domestic and overseas ore TC and squeezing smelting profits [5]. - The expected year - on - year growth rate of supply in November is expected to fall below 20%, and the daily average output is decreasing month - on - month [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]
油料日报:国产豆供给锐减支撑行情,花生采购停滞需求低迷-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Soybean strategy: Neutral [4] - Peanut strategy: Neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to adverse weather, the total soybean production in the Huanghuaihai and Hubei-Hunan regions has decreased significantly this year, with an estimated decline of over 60%. The supply of high-protein soybeans has tightened, and the prices of Russian-Canadian soybeans and domestic high-protein soybeans are expected to remain strong [3]. - The peanut market is facing a situation where oil mills' acquisitions are poor, and downstream food companies' demand is weak. The peanut futures and spot prices have shown a downward trend [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2601 contract yesterday was 4146.00 yuan/ton, up 23.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +0.56% [1]. - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A01 - 66, a change of -23 from the previous day, a change of 32.14% [1]. Market Information Summary - The new-season soybean market in Northeast China has shown a stable and rising trend, with the selling prices of tower grains from major grain trading enterprises increasing by 0.49% - 0.99%. The prices of high-protein soybean sources remain firm, and downstream traders mainly adopt a strategy of purchasing on demand [2]. - Due to adverse weather, the total soybean production in the Huanghuaihai and Hubei-Hunan regions has decreased significantly this year, and the supply of high-quality soybean sources in the production areas has continued to shrink, pushing up prices. It is expected that Russian-Canadian soybeans and domestic high-protein soybeans will maintain a strong operation [3]. Strategy - Neutral [4] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7788.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of -0.18% [4]. - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7890.00 yuan/ton, a month-on-month change of -60.00 yuan/ton, a change of -0.75%. The spot basis was PK01 - 188.00, a month-on-month change of -186.00, a change of +9300.00% [4]. Market Information Summary - The average price of general peanuts in the national peanut market is basically stable. The overall arrival volume of oil mills has decreased. The acquisition performance of oil mills is poor, and the demand of downstream food companies remains weak [4][5]. Strategy - Neutral [6]
化工日报:检修集中兑现,PTA大幅上涨-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] - Cross-variety: Go long on PF processing fees at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5] - Inter-period: PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [5] Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the PX/PTA main contracts rose by 3.05% and 2.27% respectively. The current PTA spot market has abundant supply, with good long - term expectations but pressure in the near - term market, requiring comprehensive judgment [1] - In the cost side, the re - balancing of Russian oil trade is in the market observation period. The market focus is on the significantly increased maritime inventory. The structure of the increased inventory is crucial for the fourth - quarter oil price trend. PX's short - term floating price rebounds, but the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA's processing fees are compressed to a low level, with more near - term maintenance plans, but the inventory accumulation pressure will gradually emerge after December [2] - The polyester operating rate is 91.7% (month - on - month increase of 0.3%). Since late October, domestic sales orders have improved significantly. The PF's short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials, and the processing fees are expected to be strong. The PR's spot processing fees are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Covers TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Includes PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [16][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involves toluene US - Asia spreads (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Focuses on the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Covers PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Includes filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rates, and filament profits [49][51][61] PF Detailed Data - Contains 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fees [71][81][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Covers polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fees, bottle chip export processing fees, bottle chip export profits, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [90][92][100]
农产品日报:需求有所回升,猪价延续震荡-20251107
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 03:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg markets is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply - demand situation of pigs shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change due to factors such as the decline in consumption after the Spring Festival, the increase in supply, and the expected end - of - year synchronized slaughter of second - fattened pigs [2] - For eggs, the current situation of new grain being concentrated on the market and supply exceeding demand remains unchanged, and the corn price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly this week [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,940 yuan/ton, a change of - 5.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.04% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.94 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 11.96 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Sichuan, it was 11.46 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product prices: On November 6th, the "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 124.92, down 0.05 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.06 yuan/kg, down 0.7% [1] Market Analysis - The inventory of large and medium - sized pigs over 5 months old in the country decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowed by 2.4%. The number of newly born piglets increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year, with large - scale farms showing an increase of 1.8% month - on - month and 11% year - on - year, indicating significant long - term supply pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3227 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 10.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.31% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.69 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan [3] - Inventory: On November 6, 2025, the production - link inventory was 1.08 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous day, a decrease of 4.42%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.26 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.33% [3] Market Analysis - Deep - processing and feed enterprises have relatively low inventory, weak willingness to build inventory, and a strong wait - and - see attitude, with spot - on - demand procurement being the main trend [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]