农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 养殖端缩量挺价，猪价偏强震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约14340元/吨，较前交易日变动+475.00元/吨，幅度+3.43%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格15.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.19元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+1000，较前交易日变动-285；江 苏地区外三元生猪价格 15.54元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.16元/公斤，现货基差LH09+1200，较前交易日变动-315； 四川地区外三元生猪价格14.68元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.23元/公斤，现货基差LH09+340，较前交易日变动-245。 据农业农村部监测，7月2日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.38，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数 为112.37，与昨天持平。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.54元/公斤，比昨天上升1.7%；牛肉63.64元/公斤， 比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉59.73元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋7.10元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；白条鸡17.10元/公斤， 比昨天下降0.1%。 市场分析 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-07-03 经济数据表现较差 9月降息预期再度增强 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，在经济数据方面，美国6月ADP就业人数减少3.3万人，为2023年3月以来最大降幅；6月挑战者企业裁员人 数录得4.7999万人，为2024年12月以来新低。目前利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。此外，特朗普宣布与 越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放，越南将向美国支付20%的关税，适用于任何进入美国领土的商 品，且对转运货物征收40%的关税；越南国家媒体称美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关税。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-07-02，沪金主力合约开于 780.80元/克，收于 776.04元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.01%。当日成交量为 202457手，持仓量为 168596手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 779.02 元/克，收于 779.66 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.26%。 2025-07-02，沪银主力合约开于 8802元/千克，收于 8747元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 323881手，持仓量 249023手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,784 元/千克 ...

化工日报 | 2025-07-03 海外装置运行不稳，EG震荡上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4299元/吨（较前一交易日变动+26元/吨，幅度+0.61%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动+32元/吨，幅度+0.74%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）74元/吨（环比+5元/ 吨）。沙特装置因电力因素大面积短停，同时马来西亚一套75万吨/年的乙二醇装置上游裂解因故停车，乙二醇装置 运行稳定性欠佳，海外产量恢复不如预期，EG价格震荡上行。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-79美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为2元/吨（环比-7 元/吨）。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓单陆续注销流出 后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，近期海外装置逐步重启，供应预期宽松，7月初外轮到货集中。 需求端现实坚挺，但几家瓶片大厂7月初检修计划集中，需求预期偏弱，关注实际兑现情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，地缘变化超预期 2 ...

市场分析 油脂日报 | 2025-07-03 印度棕榈油进口增加，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 中性 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8440.00元/吨，环比变化+104元，幅度+1.25%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8018.00 元/吨，环比变化+46.00元，幅度+0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9619.00元/吨，环比变化+142.00元，幅度+1.50%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8440.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.60%，现货基差P09+0.00，环比变化 -54.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%，现货基差Y09+142.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9770.00元/吨，环比变化+110.00元，幅度+1.14%，现货基差 OI09+151.00，环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：欧盟委员会（European Commission）数据显示，2024年7月1日至2025年6月29日，欧盟2024/25 年度棕榈油进口量为279万吨，而去年同期为349 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 受资金情绪及消息面影响，碳酸锂盘面偏强运行 市场分析 2025年7月2日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62800元/吨，收于63960元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收涨3.19%。当 日成交量为540435手，持仓量为325574手，较前一交易日减少1102手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳2310 元/吨。所有合约总持仓589634手，较前一交易日减少2761手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加167850手，成 交量652707，整体投机度为1.11。当日碳酸锂仓单23180手，较上个交易日增加240手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月2日电池级碳酸锂报价6.09-6.24万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价5.955-6.055万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.035万元/吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心呈现震荡上行。 根据SMM调研，当前市场呈现\"上游挺价、下游压价\"的博弈格局：冶炼厂报价维持高位，但下游正极材料厂采购 仍以刚需为主，市场整体成交清淡。不过部分刚性需求订单仍支撑价格小幅上行，现货价格重心有所抬升。供需 ...

Report industry investment rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the methanol industry [4] Core view of the report - Iranian methanol plants are gradually resuming production, and the port inventory accumulation rate has slowed down. After the paper cargo delivery in late June, the port basis has been weakening. There is still pressure on future arrivals, and MTO plants plan to conduct maintenance in July, so the port is still in a short - term inventory accumulation cycle. In the inland area, the operation rate of coal - based methanol plants remains high, but the traditional downstream shows strong resilience, and the inventory of inland methanol plants is under no pressure. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1 mentioned promoting the "orderly exit of backward production capacity", but there is no specific document yet, which requires close attention [3] Summary according to relevant catalogs I. Methanol basis & inter - period structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [7][11][23] II. Methanol production profit, MTO profit, import profit - Figures are provided for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][32] III. Methanol operation and inventory - Information includes methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [35][36][38] IV. Regional price differences - Regional price differences are shown in figures such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [40][46][49] V. Traditional downstream profit - Figures display the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][56][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [5] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The PVC price rebounded due to the market's expectation of supply - side regulation, but the weak supply - demand pattern remains, and the rebound may not last. The caustic soda futures price rose due to concerns about passive production cuts, but its fundamentals also lack positive drivers [4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,930 yuan/ton (+109), the East China basis was - 170 yuan/ton (-69), and the South China basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-59) [2]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,850 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 504 yuan/ton (-10), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 693 yuan/ton (-53), and the PVC export profit was - 0.4 dollars/ton (+7.4) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory was 39.5 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory was 36.2 tons (+0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 80.43% (+0.81%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.81% (+0.07%) [2]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 62.9 tons (-1.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,391 yuan/ton (+33), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 15 yuan/ton (-33) [2]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,415 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 552.0 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 70.03 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+50.51) [3]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.04 tons (+2.39), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.58 tons (-0.27), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+1.30%) [3]. - Downstream开工: The operating rate of alumina was 80.67% (-0.07%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.57% (-2.23%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: The previous maintenance continued, and the overall PVC operating rate decreased slightly. The new 400,000 - ton plant of Bohua was put into trial operation, and there were expectations of new capacity from Yaowang, Wanhua, and Haiwan, so the supply side was under pressure [4]. - Demand side: The downstream product operating rate continued to decline, domestic demand was weak, and export orders were stable. The BIS standard policy in India was postponed for 6 months, which supported the export market in the short term, but the anti - dumping policy was uncertain [4]. - Inventory: The social PVC inventory stopped falling and rebounded [4]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: The operating rate of upstream caustic soda continued to rise, and there were plans to put into production 300,000 - ton capacities of Gansu Yaowang and Tianjin Bohua, so the supply - side pressure was expected to increase [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the main downstream alumina was stable, there were expectations of new capacity in Shandong, and the export support was okay, but the non - aluminum downstream demand was weak [4]. - Inventory: The inventory removal was not smooth [4].

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-07-03 苯乙烯港口延续累库，继续弱势盘整 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.70万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费161美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费142美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差88.7美元/吨（+9.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-95元/吨（-25元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差313元/吨（-87元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润146元/吨（-22元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存98800吨（+13800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存31300吨（-35000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润151元/吨（+49元/吨），PS生产利润-249元/吨（+49元/吨），ABS生产利润476元/吨（+97 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 策略 谨慎逢高做空套保 EB-BZ逢高做缩 风险 油价大幅波动，伊朗地缘 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 政策及情绪扰动较大，多晶硅盘面触及涨停 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-02，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约2509开于7805元/吨，最后收于8210元/吨，较前一日结算变化（375） 元/吨，变化（4.79）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓386361手，2025-07-02仓单总数为51916手，较前一日变化 -221手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8600-8700（150）元/吨；421#硅在8800-9100 （150）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8100（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 西北、新疆、四川、上海地区部分硅价也上涨。97硅价格暂稳元/吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM报道，当前国内单体企业开工仍在继续 小幅提高，截至当前，国内开工达到70％左右，预计7月国内DMC排产仍将小幅提高1万吨左右，对工业硅消耗量 增多。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面大幅上涨，短期由于大厂减产，下游排产小 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 现货压力较大，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2944元/吨，较前日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.57%；菜粕2509合约2578元/吨，较前 日变动-8元/吨，幅度-0.31%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-34， 较前日变动+7；江苏地区豆粕现货2800元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-144，较前日变动-13；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-30元/吨，现货基差M09-144，较前日变动-13。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2580元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09+2，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部月度压榨报告显示，5月份美国大豆压榨量2.037亿蒲，较4月的2.024亿蒲增长0.65%， 较去年同期的1.916亿蒲增长6.30%。2024/25年度迄今累计压榨量达18.44亿蒲，高于去年同期的17.43亿蒲。StoneX 报告显示，巴西2024/25年度大豆产量估计为1.69亿吨，较早先预估上调50万吨，预计巴西 ...