甲醇日报 | 2025-12-30 内地进一步转弱 甲醇观点 港口方面：太仓甲醇2150元/吨（+15），太仓基差-11元/吨（+15），CFR中国250美元/吨（-1），华东进口价差-18元/ 吨（+4），常州甲醇2285元/吨；广东甲醇2125元/吨（+15），广东基差-36元/吨（+15）。隆众港口总库存1412509吨 （+193691），江苏港口库存815291吨（+211266），浙江港口库存192000吨（-3600），广东港口库存233000吨（-31000）； 下游MTO开工率87.81%（-0.51%）。 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差15元/吨（+10），太仓-内蒙-550价差-200元/吨（+55），太仓-鲁南-250价差-280 元/吨（+30）；鲁南-太仓-100价差-70元/吨（-30）；广东-华东-180价差-205元/吨（+0）；华东-川渝-200价差-220元/ 吨（+15）。 市场分析 港口方面。江苏港口库存大幅累积，一方面是前期滞后的卸港逐步兑现，另一方面是内地转弱后的港口回流内地 提货需求下降。虽伊朗开工低位，但装置检修传导至装船量的实际下滑仍等待进一步兑现；M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and thermal coal are all in a state of volatile operation. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, raw material replenishment expectations, and seasonal and policy - related factors [1][3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Steel Market Analysis - Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,130 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,287 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume was average, with better low - price purchases during the morning price increase, increased speculative sentiment, and weaker trading in the afternoon. The basis first narrowed and then widened throughout the day, and the national building materials trading volume was 117,700 tons [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have no obvious contradictions, maintaining low production, low consumption, and low inventory. Plates are still restricted by high inventories, with limited marginal price fluctuations. In the short term, there are expectations of raw material replenishment in the market. Attention should be paid to environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, demand and inventory reduction, profit status, cost support, raw material replenishment, steel exports, and domestic policies [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 796.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices generally rose slightly, trading was average, traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand replenishment, with purchase prices mostly following the market [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand pattern continues to tighten. Port inventories have increased significantly, but downstream procurement demand is weak. Due to limited liquidity of some port supplies and market concerns about future actual supply, iron ore prices are supported by a relatively high valuation. If relevant negotiations make clear progress, potential supply - demand contradictions may emerge, and prices may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the actual production cut rhythm of steel mills and changes in port inventory structure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile pattern throughout the day, and the main contracts of both closed slightly lower. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the quotations fluctuated with the market. The market is cautiously waiting and watching [5] Logic and View - As the end of the year approaches, the demand for capital repatriation increases, and speculative demand declines. For coking coal, the output of some coal mines has decreased, and with the stable customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal, the overall supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs and have a weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday downstream replenishment rhythm. For coke, the overall supply is stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is average. On the demand side, the current absolute value of hot metal production is low, and the post - holiday blast furnace restart is expected to further drive the increase in hot metal production. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of steel mills and changes in hot metal production [5][6] Strategy - Coking coal: Volatile; Coke: Volatile; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - In the producing areas, the supply of major coal - producing areas is tight due to factors such as the completion of annual production and sales tasks and face - moving operations. Coal mine inventories are generally low, and the sales of operating coal mines are good, with prices set according to the number of vehicles. In the short term, prices are expected to change little. At ports, the downward trend in the port market continues, but the decline has narrowed, and port inventories have decreased due to factors such as reduced shipments. Currently, downstream consumption has increased month - on - month, and with the expected impact of cold snaps in the future, market inquiries have increased, and demand is gradually improving. However, although inventories have declined, they are still at a relatively high level, and the later market consumption situation needs to be observed. For imported coal, the price difference between domestic and foreign trade is inverted, and the decline in the imported coal market has also narrowed, with both high - and low - calorie coal prices falling [7] Demand and Logic - Recently, coal prices have changed from weak to strong, and downstream consumption has improved. Due to coal mines completing their annual tasks, it is difficult for supply to improve significantly in the later stage. Attention should also be paid to the consumption situation affected by factors such as weather in January. The supply elasticity of coal is large, and attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and inventory replenishment [7] Strategy - None [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various types of options on December 26, 2025 [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 26, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was 553,000 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300ETF options (Shanghai market) was 683,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,265,000 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 58,500 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,441,900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index options was 35,400 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 stock index options was 83,900 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 321,200 contracts [1] - The table also shows the call, put, and total trading volumes of different index ETF options on the same day [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was reported at 0.65, with a month - on - month change of - 0.10; the position PCR was reported at 1.01, with a month - on - month change of + 0.02. Similar data are provided for other types of options [2] - A table presents the turnover PCR, month - on - month change, position PCR, and month - on - month change of different index ETF options [36] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF options was reported at 13.89%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.48%. Similar data for other types of options are also given [3] - A table shows the VIX and month - on - month change values of different index ETF options [52]

流动性日报 | 2025-12-29 市场流动性概况 2025-12-26，股指板块成交7513.49亿元，较上一交易日变动+34.05%；持仓金额14864.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.98%；成交持仓比为50.44%。 国债板块成交3399.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+15.26%；持仓金额8375.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.35%；成交 持仓比为40.03%。 基本金属板块成交9273.35亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.98%；持仓金额7451.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.37%； 成交持仓比为145.26%。 贵金属板块成交11099.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.75%；持仓金额5693.14亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.35%；成 交持仓比为284.37%。 能源化工板块成交5694.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+27.80%；持仓金额4425.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.84%； 成交持仓比为121.45%。 农产品板块成交3277.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+38.23%；持仓金额5628.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.90%；成 交持仓比为56.14%。 黑色建材板块成交 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "破七之后：强势已现，空间几何" - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Research Institute: Huatai Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Cai Shaoli, Zhu Simou [1] Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The logic of RMB's oscillatory strength remains unchanged. The RMB has broken through the 7.00 integer mark, but the appreciation this round is more driven by external factors and trade rhythm. The internal fundamentals have not formed a trend resonance. It is expected to operate in the range of 6.95–7.05 with a slight upward bias in the short term, and the appreciation pace will slow down after breaking 7 [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the overall implied volatility shows an upward trend [4]. Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor remains in the negative range but has not been activated. There is a fluctuation in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [7]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economy - **Interest Rate Cut and Liquidity**: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 861.4 billion on December 17 (previous value: 805.8 billion), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (- 123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [14]. - **Fed Chair Candidates**: The core competition is between Waller, Hassett, and Warsh. Market probabilities show Hassett leading, but Trump highly trusts Bessent. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Fed losing its independence", which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it may trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Fed losing its independence", which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [17]. - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations, but the pace of interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the CPI increase in November was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [19]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in November was lower than expected. The contributions of food and core commodities decreased, the contribution of crude oil increased, and the contribution of core services decreased. There is a divergence between CPI and PMI [20]. - **Non - farm Payrolls in November**: Compared with September, the non - farm payrolls in November continued to weaken, with only the construction industry showing improvement. In the unemployment rate, re - employment and temporary unemployment had negative contributions, indicating a change in the employment environment [22]. - **Chinese Economy**: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [24]. Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - The supply and demand of foreign exchange are generally balanced. The surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has fallen to 15.65 billion US dollars, and although the surplus continues, it is gradually weakening at the margin. The scale of settlement and sale of foreign exchange has not significantly increased or decreased, and the marginal guidance of single - month data on the exchange rate has declined. Enterprises' spot - end operations tend to be rational, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts falling to 51.99% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments falling to 60.30%. Enterprises maintain a balanced payment and receipt management, and there is no concentrated settlement or sale of foreign exchange. On the forward end, the management is mainly about existing risks. The demand for new forward hedging has cooled down, and the performance shows a divergence of "decrease in settlement and increase in purchase". The net forward settlement of foreign exchange that has not expired continues to rise, and the hedging structure is stable without showing directional bets [31]. Foreign - related Receipts and Payments - The overall surplus has significantly narrowed, but the structure is stable. The surplus of domestic banks' agency foreign - related receipts and payments has declined. Both the current account and the capital and financial account have weakened simultaneously, reflecting a rhythm adjustment rather than a directional change. The surplus foundation of the current account is still solid. The current account surplus has decreased from 74.66 billion to 55.24 billion US dollars, mainly due to the stable export rhythm and the marginal repair of imports. The goods trade surplus is still as high as 72.67 billion US dollars, indicating the resilience of the foreign trade fundamentals. The service trade deficit has expanded to - 6.42 billion US dollars, weakening the support for the surplus. The capital and financial account has a structural outflow, but the pressure has eased. The capital account deficit has expanded to - 38.61 billion US dollars, among which the securities investment deficit has significantly narrowed, and the direct investment deficit has slightly improved. There is no concentrated outflow in a single channel, and cross - border capital flows remain controllable [36]. Overall Viewpoint - The current situation shows that the difference in economic expectations is favorable for the RMB. The US employment and business activities have cooled down simultaneously, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the wage growth rate falling to 3.5%. In the same period, China's economic growth - stabilizing policies have continued to take effect, and exports and the current account surplus are robust. The Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral. Under the Fed's interest rate - cut cycle, the real return advantage of the US dollar has converged, while China's monetary policy maintains a stable orientation and the interest rate system is stable. The uncertainty of trade policy is neutral. The US trade and industrial policies towards China still have uncertainties, but the adjustment rhythm has slowed down. China's export market continues to diversify, the trade surplus has reached a record high, and the external demand structure is stable [40]. 2026 Scenario Deduction - There are multiple important events and turning points throughout 2026, including the Fed chair candidate situation at the end of 2025, OPEC and FOMC meetings in January, the government work report in February, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, the expiration of Powell's term in May, the FOMC meeting on June 18, the El Nino situation in June, the Politburo meeting in July, the FOMC meeting on September 29, the US mid - term elections on November 3, and the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs on November 10. These events are related to policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, which will have an impact on the economic situation [43].

期货研究报告|聚酯产业链专题 2025-12-26 PX 供应还有多少提升空间——国内篇 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 梁琦 liangqi@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03148380 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 在对明年上半年供需偏紧的预期下，近期 PX 价格强势上涨，长短流程经济性都得到了 极大的提升，PXN 突破 360 元/吨，创下近五年 12 月的最高记录，也是 2024 年 6 月中 以来的高点，纸货 5 月 PXN 已经达到 380 美元/吨附近。当前 PX 在聚酯产业链中利润 表现最好，随着 PX 的 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on December 25, 2025 [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 880,800 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,015,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,176,500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 88,300 contracts; GEM ETF options was 1,763,900 contracts; Shanghai - 50 stock index options was 18,800 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 94,600 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 239,600 contracts [1] Option PCR - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.74, with a month - on - month change of +0.19; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02 [2] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; the open interest PCR was 0.93, with a month - on - month change of - 0.18 [2] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.54, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the open interest PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22 [2] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.62, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the open interest PCR was 1.43, with a month - on - month change of +0.03 [2] - GEM ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.73, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the open interest PCR was 1.11, with a month - on - month change of - 0.39 [2] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.47, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the open interest PCR was 0.66, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 300 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.41, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.69, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.44, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 [2] Option VIX - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The VIX was 13.41%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22% [3] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 15.20%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.37% [3] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 19.32%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.26% [3] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The VIX was 19.46%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.74% [3] - GEM ETF options: The VIX was 25.06%, with a month - on - month change of +0.16% [3] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The VIX was 14.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.43% [3] - CSI 300 stock index options: The VIX was 15.94%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.36% [3] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The VIX was 19.09%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.40% [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 苹果优果价格坚挺，红枣旺季消费偏弱 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9208元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1008，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-808，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士主流行情稳定，成交氛围仍显一般。洛川部分产区果农货价格略有松动，目前部分产 区果农货询价增多，库内包装发运略有增加，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果 农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量 75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/ 斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ 斤。 ...

1. Report's Core View - On December 25, 2025, different sectors in the market showed various liquidity performances. The stock index, basic metal, precious metal, and agricultural product sectors had increased trading volumes compared with the previous trading days, while the treasury bond, energy - chemical, and black building material sectors had decreased trading volumes [1][2]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Stock Index Plate - Trading volume was 560.484 billion yuan, a +10.45% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 1376.631 billion yuan, with a +4.67% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.59% [1]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Plate - Trading volume was 294.915 billion yuan, a -34.30% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 818.284 billion yuan, with a +1.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 35.57% [1]. 2.3 Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal) Plate - Trading volume was 820.815 billion yuan, a +34.56% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 727.873 billion yuan, with a +1.41% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 116.61% [1]. 2.4 Energy - Chemical Plate - Trading volume was 445.584 billion yuan, a -11.40% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 446.265 billion yuan, with a +0.10% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 91.56% [1]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Plate - Trading volume was 237.094 billion yuan, a +2.38% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 557.817 billion yuan, with a -2.23% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 40.83% [1]. 2.6 Black Building Material Plate - Trading volume was 154.490 billion yuan, a -25.74% change from the previous trading day. The holding amount was 311.853 billion yuan, with a -1.85% change. The trading volume - holding ratio was 46.74% [2].

油料日报 | 2025-12-26 花生出货压力依存，盘面震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 无 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4125.00元/吨，较前日变化+19.00元/吨，幅度+0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+115，较前日变化-19，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆出现上涨，普调40元/吨，主因产区农户余粮不足惜售，贸易商当前也是持货待 涨。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.26元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤。南 方产区大豆大稳小动，主因高品质豆稀缺。今日南方产区杂花豆，蛋白42-43%，安徽淮北百善报价2.65元/斤；河 南周口报价2.60元/斤。销区市场目前以随用随采为主，目前库存 ...