农产品日报 | 2025-10-29 糖价内强外弱，郑棉反弹受阻 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13565元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14651元/吨，较前一日变动-39元/吨，现货基差CF01+1086，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价14830元/吨， 较前一日变动-3元/吨，现货基差CF01+1265，较前一日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，据外媒消息，在进口棉增量冲击之下，印度国内棉花价格承压。为了保障植棉收入，棉农交售给 政府的意愿或持续偏强。基于此，印度棉花公司（CCI）有望在2025/26年度收购238万吨棉花，创下历史新高。从 近期皮棉价格运行来看，印度多地现货价格稳中略跌。27日北部棉区旁遮普邦棉花成交价在5240-5270卢比/莫恩德 （折约50000-50300卢比/坎地），哈里亚纳邦在5030-5080比/莫恩德（折约48000-48500卢比/坎地）；拉贾斯坦邦北部 地区在5190-5240卢比/莫恩德（折约49600-50100卢比/坎地）。中部古吉拉特邦S-6品种（29mm）成交价在525 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The decline in oil prices has dragged down the trading atmosphere in the propylene spot market. The supply of propylene is expected to increase, while demand is mainly rigid due to price fluctuations and profit pressures. The cost - side support is weakening, and there is insufficient short - term upward drive. It is necessary to continue to monitor the impact of the cost side and the start - stop status of PDH plants [1][2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, conduct counter - arbitrage when PL01 - 02 is high, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil major refinery capacity utilization rate [17][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][39] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [42][44][47] 5. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

核心观点 市场分析 化工日报 | 2025-10-29 到港计划集中，EG基差回落 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4069元/吨（较前一交易日变动-40元/吨，幅度-0.97%），EG华东市场现货价 4161元/吨（较前一交易日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.53%），EG华东现货基差76元/吨（环比-8元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产利润为-51美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-583 元/吨（环比+3元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为57.9万吨（环比+3.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.3万吨（环比-1.0万吨）。据CCF数据，上周主港实际到港3.5万吨，本周华东主 港计划到港总数19.8万吨，副港计划到港量4.5万吨，本周到港计划较多，预计将再度累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态，但因个别船只涉美问题短期内将导致供应顺延。需求端，近期随着降温，聚 酯下游适度好转，对整体心态存在一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - The rebound of the crude oil end faces resistance, and the LPG market has insufficient upward drive, with the market entering a narrow - range oscillation state. The domestic civil gas prices showed a mixed trend of rises and falls yesterday. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, especially with continuous growth in overseas supply. Considering the macro uncertainties, short - term caution is advised, and waiting for the results of Sino - US trade negotiations is recommended [1] Market Analysis - On October 28, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4150 - 4270; Northeast market, 3630 - 4030; North China market, 4100 - 4350; East China market, 4150 - 4310; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4790; Northwest market, 4150 - 4200; South China market, 4250 - 4480 [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 541 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 542 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4220 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and butane was 4228 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 535 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 536 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4173 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and butane was 4181 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1] - The mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - post carbon four in Shandong decreased, but the downstream purchasing willingness increased after the price decline, the market sentiment stabilized, and the trading atmosphere improved [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Sell short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: Postpone [9] Core View - The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the market has fully priced in this expected rate cut. Coupled with factors that reduce short-term risk aversion, precious metals are expected to continue to show a volatile trend [8]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the procedural vote on the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, so the government shutdown will continue. ADP will launch weekly employment data, and the first report shows that the average number of private-sector jobs in the U.S. increased by 14,250 in the four weeks ending October 11 [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On October 28, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 926.92 yuan/gram and closed at 901.38 yuan/gram, down 3.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 905.06 yuan/gram, up 0.41% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 11,268.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,049.00 yuan/kg, down 3.03% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,052,828 lots, and the open interest was 321,876 lots. The night session closed at 11,180 yuan/kg, up 1.19% from the afternoon session [2]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 28, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.974%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.492%, up 0.21 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On October 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 541 lots, and the short positions decreased by 242 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 643,413 lots, a change of 24.38% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts was 1,760,723 lots, a change of 35.58% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,038.92 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,210 tons, a decrease of 131 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 20.15 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -625.43 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 81.58, down 0.49% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 85.07, up 0.90% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 67,744 kg, a change of 21.58% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 765,416 kg, a change of 17.10% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 16,830 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port still faces high inventory pressure, and the port basis continues to consolidate weakly. The sanctions on Russian oil by Europe and the United States may affect the attitude of methanol warehousing enterprises and downstream towards Iranian ships. The temporary short - term maintenance in Iran has occurred, but the winter maintenance plan is yet to be announced [3]. - Inland prices in regions such as the Northwest and Shandong continued to catch up with the decline on Tuesday. The inland atmosphere is average, and mainstream CTO enterprises have not shown active procurement. Coal - based methanol production increased further in November, and inland inventories started to build up from a low level. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are provided, including the basis of methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions against the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][11][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [26][31][32] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Illustrations cover the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [34][35][41] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [39][49][54] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Diagrams display the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][56][59]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, while the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton. After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged again, and the FU and LU markets adjusted accordingly. Due to the current macro uncertainties, caution is advised [1]. - The current fundamental situation of fuel oil shows that "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil production in Russia has been affected by drone attacks, leading to unplanned maintenance in several refineries and a marginal tightening of supply. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is difficult to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has certain support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil have been weak recently. However, with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation level is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.74% at 2,818 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.71% at 3,273 yuan/ton [1]. - After the continuous rebound of crude oil prices, resistance emerged, and the FU and LU markets adjusted. Due to macro uncertainties, caution is needed [1]. - The fundamental situation of fuel oil is "high - sulfur is stronger than low - sulfur". High - sulfur fuel oil supply in Russia has tightened marginally due to refinery maintenance. Russia's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous month. The impact of sanctions on Russian supply is hard to quantify, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has support [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak, but with the restart of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery, the local supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, and the downside space based on the current valuation is limited [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the expectation of a Fed rate cut, the treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the rising global trade uncertainty increases the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [4]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan (+0.79%); M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.40% (-4.55%); the manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% (+0.81%) [10]. - The dollar index is 98.71, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.10 (-0.10%); the offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.0974, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.015 (-0.21%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.78%); DR007 is 1.56, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.02 (-1.50%); R007 is 1.53, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 (+1.49%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 (-0.77%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 (-0.77%) [10]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the indication of relevant figures (such as the closing price trends, price change rates, etc. of treasury bond futures) is provided. The figures include the closing price trends, price change rates, precipitation funds trends, positions ratios, net positions ratios (top 20), long - short positions ratios (top 20), the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [14][16][18][22]. III. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals The figures include Shibor interest rate trends, the maturity yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and local government bond issuance [26][27]. IV. Spread Overview The figures include the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [33][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TS main contract [41][42][51]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][62]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The figures include the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trends and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase interest rate rises, be cautiously bullish on 2512 [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of 2512 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

油料日报 | 2025-10-29 中性 风险 贸易商转向采购东北豆，花生市场避险情绪浓厚 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约4115.00元/吨，较前日变化+38.00元/吨，幅度+0.93%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11-35，较前日变化-38，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：据钢联数据，东北市场新季大豆价格在还粮需求叠加关内产区新季大豆品质下滑的影响下，整体 偏强运行，农户挺价意愿仍强，但受制于销售价格涨幅有限影响，粮贸企业多以销售前期库存为主，收购积极性 有所降温。随着还粮时间将近，后期大豆集中上市价格仍有回调风险。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/ 斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标 一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral rating for commodities and stock index futures [3] Core Viewpoints - The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposal boosts market sentiment, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The US economy shows resilience and its easing pace is relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continuous attention [1] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. Pay attention to possible breakthrough directions for non-ferrous metals and energy in the second half of inflation. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft proposal aims for significant achievements in high - quality development, etc. The full text of the proposal includes measures like promoting key technology breakthroughs and boosting consumption. The A - share market had a volatile day with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reaching 4000 points [1] - US economic data shows resilience, with the Fed's easing pace potentially smooth. The US government shutdown has entered its 28th day, and the "small non - farm" ADP launches weekly employment data [1] Commodity Analysis - Black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations. Non - ferrous sector is limited in long - term supply but boosted by global easing expectations. Energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. Chemicals' "anti - involution" space is worth attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [2] Strategy - Overall neutral rating for commodities and stock index futures [3] Important News - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal includes education expansion and improvement measures. China and ASEAN sign the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. The central bank and the CSRC announce relevant policies [4] - The market rebounds, with about 3000 stocks rising and a trading volume of 1.66 trillion. Japan announces a list of potential projects for a $550 billion investment in the US. Mexico and the US extend the agreement deadline [4] Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - major - city commercial housing transaction area, and US - China bond spreads [5][7][10] Interest Rate Charts - Include charts of 10Y and 2Y US - China bond spreads [14] Foreign Exchange Charts - Include charts of the US dollar's weekly exchange - rate changes against major currencies and the US dollar index [17][18]