Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The industrial silicon market shows a short - term improvement in supply - demand pattern with slight inventory reduction, but high total inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. The polysilicon market is affected by policies, with large price fluctuations, and is suitable for long - position layout at low prices in the medium - to - long term [1][3][7] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 8930 yuan/ton and closed at 8675 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 289,125 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Tianjin, Northwest, Xinjiang, and Shanghai increased, while individual prices in Sichuan decreased. Prices in Kunming and Huangpu Port remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained unchanged. As of August 21, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game. Although the monomer enterprises adopted a promotion strategy to relieve inventory pressure, the downstream was still cautious due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal orders, and only replenished goods in moderation according to production needs [2] Strategy - In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has improved with a slight inventory reduction, but the high total industry inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. It may fluctuate mainly according to the overall commodity sentiment in the short term [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 52,320 yuan/ton and closing at 51,580 yuan/ton, a change of 0.73% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,801 lots (142,397 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 360,522 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with N - type material at 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg and N - type granular silicon at 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg [5] Inventory and Production - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% increase from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a 12.07% decrease. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase [5][6] Product Prices - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, 210mm, and 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece, 1.58 yuan/piece, and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [6] Strategy - Recently, the spot quotation of polysilicon has increased, and the prices of downstream products have also risen. The supply - demand fundamentals are average, with polysilicon inventory accumulation and average consumption - end installation data. The futures price is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [7]

Market Analysis - In July, the global economic data remained resilient. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non - manufacturing sector stayed in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, higher than expected. Financial data showed that money supply exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data faced significant pressure [2]. - The State Council emphasized measures to stabilize the real - estate market. The central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, with a net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan in August, and a total net medium - term liquidity injection of 600 billion yuan [2]. - A - shares had a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points and the trading volume reaching 3.14 trillion yuan. AI hardware stocks soared, and sectors like real estate and liquor rose. In the bond market, treasury bond futures went up, with the 30 - year main contract rising over 0.7%. Domestic commodity futures all increased, led by coking coal and coke. The RMB central parity rate was raised by 160 points [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, but the August PMI continued to improve. The "Big Beautiful" Act might support subsequent consumption [2]. Policy and Tariff News - On July 31, the White House re - set "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 19, the US Commerce Department added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tariff rate. Trump said he would announce semiconductor tariffs within two weeks, with a possible rate of 300% [3]. - On August 22, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting showed a dovish turn, suggesting a possible policy adjustment due to increased downside risks to employment. This cleared the way for a Fed rate cut in September [3]. Commodity Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints remain unrelieved [3]. - The government will regulate the photovoltaic industry to prevent low - price competition. By 2027, industries with relatively stable carbon emissions will be subject to quota - based total control. OPEC+ accelerated production, increasing by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. Agricultural products are currently driven by tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [4]. To - do List - This week, 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the Chinese central bank's open market will mature, and there will also be 300 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of term reverse repurchases maturing [5]. - On August 25, the National Development and Reform Commission held a corporate symposium to listen to opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach a new high in more than a decade, approaching 3900 points. Over 3300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion yuan [5]. - On August 25, the Ukrainian president announced that Ukraine and the US would hold talks this weekend to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia [3][5].

尿素日报 | 2025-08-26 厂家降价吸单，下游采购谨慎 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-08-25，尿素主力收盘1745元/吨（+6）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1700元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1710元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-45 元/吨（-46）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-46）；江苏基差：-35元/吨（-36）；尿素生产利润170元/吨（-40），出口利润1270 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-08-25，企业产能利用率83.98%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为102.39 万吨（+6.65），港口样本 库存量为50.10 万吨（+3.70）。 需求端：截至2025-08-25，复合肥产能利用率40.84%（-2.64%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为46.60%（-3.22%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.06日（-0.23）。 近日受出口影响情绪减弱，厂家降价吸单，下游跟进谨慎，现货跌至前低成交有好转。下游农需淡季，工业需求 复合肥进入秋季肥生产季节，但受阅兵影响，开工率下降，三聚氰胺、板厂开工也 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-26 大盘成长补涨，沪指加速上行 市场分析 上海楼市新政。国内方面，上海出台楼市新政"组合拳"：符合条件的家庭外环外购房不限套数，成年单身按照居 民家庭执行住房限购政策；绿色建筑公积金贷款额度上浮15%，公积金落实"又提又贷"政策；房贷利率层面则不再 区分首套和二套房；房产税征收层面也迎来微调，本地和外地户籍政策口径更为一致。海外方面，美国7月份新建 住宅折合年率销量下降0.6%至65.2万套，超出市场预期的63万套；新建住宅价格中值较上年同期下跌5.9%至40.38 万美元。 沪指剑指3900点。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨1.51%收于3883.56点，创业板指涨3%。行业方面， 板块指数全线收涨，通信、有色金属、房地产行业涨幅超过3%，美容护理、纺织服饰、石油石化行业涨幅相对偏 低。当日沪深两市成交金额升至3.1万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，道琼斯指数跌0.77%报45282.47点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，期指当月合约基差回落，IH、IF维持升水。成交持仓方面，股指期货的成交量 和持仓量同步增加。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 现货购销良好，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3117元/吨，较前日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.94%；菜粕2509合约2547元/吨，较前 日变动+4元/吨，幅度+0.16%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3100元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差M09-17， 较前日变动-9；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-107，较前日变动+1；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-157，较前日变动-9。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09+63，较前日变动+16。 近期市场资讯，Pro Farmer 估计美国玉米产量为 162.04 亿蒲式耳，平均产量为每英亩 182.7 蒲式耳。估计美国大 豆产量为 42.46 亿蒲式耳，平均每英亩 53 蒲式耳。咨询机构AgResource表示，巴西2025/2026年度大豆产量预计 为1.765亿吨，较上一年度增长3%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The supply - demand situation of the lead market remains weak, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market is tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are dropping. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro factors like rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 25, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,790 yuan/ton and closed at 16,845 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,202 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 27,975 lots, a decrease of 13,190 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated between 16,755 yuan/ton and 16,895 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 16,840 yuan/ton and closed at 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 25, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 68,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous week. As of August 25, the LME lead inventory was 273,050 tons, a decrease of 6,550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still favorable, with both inventory and production decreasing. After the decline of the futures price, the downstream purchasing willingness remains high. Affected by the disturbances at the mining end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but the price fluctuation is large. The report suggests short - term cautious bullishness and attention to the start - up situation of other mines [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 81,000 yuan/ton and closed at 79,380 yuan/ton, a - 0.30% change from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 626,916 lots, and the open interest was 368,667 lots. The basis was 3,340 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 25,630 lots, a change of 640 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,200 - 84,800 yuan/ton, a - 1,400 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,600 - 80,800 yuan/ton, also a - 1,400 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 920 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot price has declined, and the downstream purchasing and price - setting behavior has become more stable compared to last week. The trading volume has decreased today, and the downstream purchasing attitude has turned cautious [1]. - Currently in the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, downstream demand still has certain rigid support [1]. Production and Inventory - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while the production from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. The downstream inventory increased significantly, and the smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term cautious bullish, pay attention to the start - up situation of other mines. - For cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options, no strategies are provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a game between expectations and reality, with steel prices expected to fluctuate and rise. The iron ore market is boosted by macro - sentiment, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The coking coal and coke markets are also affected by market sentiment, with prices rising, while the thermal coal market sees a slight decline in coal prices after the end - of - month inventory is completed [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3389 yuan/ton. Today's steel spot transactions were generally average. The spot price followed the increase in the futures price, and the transactions improved compared to last week, mainly at low prices. After the spot price increase, the transactions weakened, and the market sentiment became cautious. Yesterday's steel transactions were 11100 tons. The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and inventory increased monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increased monthly, and inventory continued to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production and sales of building materials continue to weaken, and inventory increases monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increase monthly, and inventory continues to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated and rose. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 787 yuan/ton, with a 2.27% increase. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port continued to rise. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 33.16 million tons. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased, while shipments from Australia increased significantly. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.93 million tons, a decrease of 830000 tons compared to the previous week. Yesterday, the cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports across the country were 1.12 million tons, a 36.75% increase compared to the previous day; the cumulative transactions of forward - looking spot were 1.084 million tons (6 transactions), a 13.28% decrease compared to the previous day (the mine's transaction volume was 30000 tons) [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the previous high - floating cargo gradually arrives at ports, the supply of iron ore increases monthly. The high pig - iron production ensures the rigid demand for iron ore, but the demand will decline due to the impact of the parade. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is relatively limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the change in floating cargo volume on port arrivals, as well as the changes in iron ore shipments and pig - iron production [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed an obvious upward trend. The 2601 contract of coking coal increased by 6.48%, and the 2601 contract of coke increased by 4.36%. In the imported coking coal market, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the quotation fluctuated with the futures price. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the enthusiasm of traders increased [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the coke market, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, strengthening short - term confidence. Some coke enterprises maintain low inventory after profit restoration, providing support for the spot price. On the supply side, affected by the "9.3 Parade", some coke enterprises in Shandong have received oral notices of production restrictions and are expected to resume production after the parade; traffic control in the Beijing - surrounding area has requirements for coke transport vehicles, reducing the logistics supply efficiency, and the overall supply is tight. On the demand side, it remains resilient but is restricted by the contraction of steel mill profits and production - restriction expectations. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in pig - iron production and policy regulation. In the coking coal market, production has increased slightly. The impact of over - production inspections has weakened recently, but due to rainfall and safety accidents, the increase in domestic coking coal production is slow. At the same time, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly under the support policies of the Mongolian government, and the overall supply continues to increase [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the spot market, the coal price in the production area decreased slightly. Near the end of the month, most terminals have completed inventory replenishment, and the procurement demand has declined. Some coal mines have slightly reduced prices, there are more failed auctions in the market, and the number of coal - hauling trucks at coal mines has decreased. In the port market, the market sentiment has declined. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the port market is in a stalemate. Market participants are cautious about the future, and the short - term coal price is under pressure. In the import market, the quotation of imported coal is firm. As the price of domestic coal has stopped rising, the inquiry volume of imported coal has decreased, and there are few transactions [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the short - term coal price is weakly stable. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

贵金属日报 | 2025-08-26 鲍威尔放鸽 美联储政策转向预期升温 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为958.49吨，较前一交易日上行1.72吨。白银ETF持仓为15288.82吨，较前一交 易日上行11.30吨。 贵金属套利跟踪： 市场分析 宏观上，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔上的演讲中暗示高借贷成本带来的日益增长的风险可能会对就业市场产 生不利影响，这意味着美联储最早在9月份就可能有理由降息，这种偏鸽的表态加大了投资者对美联储即将开始降 息的押注。关税方面，特朗普政府在周一发布的一份公告草案中概述了对印度产品征收50%关税的计划，这是白宫 计划推进提高关税的最新信号。美国国土安全部发布的通知称，提高的关税将针对"2025年8月27日美国东部夏令 时间凌晨12:01或之后进入消费市场或从仓库提取消费产品的"印度产品。此外，美国将铜和钾盐等矿物列入2025 年关键矿物清单，因这些矿物对国家安全和经济至关重要；美国地质调查局（内政部下属机构）已将草案清单发 布至《联邦公报》，为期30天公开征求公众意见。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-08-25，沪金主力合约开于772.60元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. Internationally, the USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production remains uncertain. Domestically, low commercial inventories support prices, but new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns. The sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and the increase in domestic imports suppresses prices. The pulp futures price oscillated. Supply pressure persists due to high port inventories, and demand remains weak both at home and abroad [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,235 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. Domestic: Low commercial inventories support prices, the sliding - scale duty quota policy has limited impact, and new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns [2] Strategy - Neutral. Monitor peak - season demand. If demand improves, the price may be strong before new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5688 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Brazilian mid - southern cane yield and sugar content decreased [2][3] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and some institutions have lowered production estimates. Domestic: High import profits and increased imports suppress prices [4] Strategy - Neutral. The downside is limited, with short - term range - bound trading and a possible end - of - year price increase [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5136 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5790 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged. Some imported pulp prices increased slightly [5] Market Analysis - Supply: High imports in the first half of 2025, more domestic production capacity in the second half, but slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand during the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamentals are not improving, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [7]