Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - sentiment is positive, and the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [4][5]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [7]. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Steel Market Operation - In the first quarter of 2025, the prices of black varieties were generally weak. In the second quarter, due to tariff frictions and a weakening macro - market sentiment, finished product prices were under pressure. In mid - to late June, the coking coal market bottomed out and rebounded, driving up the prices of black - series products. In July, the "anti - involution" sentiment boosted prices, but in mid - to late August, prices fluctuated downwards. In October, high inventory suppressed steel prices [14]. - In 2025, construction steel consumption declined, but manufacturing steel consumption and steel exports increased. The difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar prices was positive, expanding from July to August and then showing a narrowing trend recently [20][24]. Steel Cycle Turns Positive, and Corporate Profits are Acceptable - In 2025, steel enterprises had good overall profitability. As of mid - to late October, the profitability rate of 247 sample steel enterprises remained above 55%. From January to August 2025, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 83.7 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [32]. High Production Enthusiasm of Steel Mills, and Output Remains Relatively High - The good profits of steel enterprises have enhanced their production enthusiasm. As of mid - to late October, the daily average output of molten iron from 247 blast furnaces was around 2.41 million tons, about 80,000 tons higher than the same period in 2024. The daily consumption of scrap steel also remained at a high level [38][40]. At the End of the Peak Consumption Season, the Inventory Pressure of Finished Products Remains High - During the traditional off - season in July and August, high profitability drove up production. In September and October, most steel mills maintained high operating rates. The inventory of finished products did not show seasonal reduction, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils was particularly prominent. As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the total inventory of five major steel products was 15.823 million tons, with an unsatisfactory inventory reduction rate. If demand does not increase significantly, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices [51][57]. Summary - The macro - sentiment is positive, and steel enterprises have acceptable profitability. The improvement in corporate profits has led to a relatively high level of finished product output. The continuous high supply has resulted in significant inventory pressure on finished products during the peak consumption season. If inventory cannot be effectively reduced during the peak season, high inventory will continue to suppress steel prices. Attention should be paid to industry profits and inventory reduction [64][65]. - In the follow - up, focus on the inventory of finished products at the end of the peak consumption season. If the inventory cannot be effectively reduced, the prices of finished products are expected to face significant pressure during the off - season [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall economic volume is steadily increasing. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 101.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 58.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth. In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, and from January to September, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [3][4]. - Pay attention to the progress of domestic demand expansion in the fourth quarter. China's economy has steadily increased in the first three quarters, with a cumulative growth of 5.2%, far exceeding that of major global economies. However, the real estate downturn needs further repair and adjustment. It is necessary to focus on domestic demand stimulus policies in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total: Steady Uptick - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economy maintained stable growth. GDP was 101.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The proportion of the tertiary industry increased to 58.4%, contributing 60.7% to economic growth. The information transmission, software, and information technology services, and leasing and business services continued to drive service industry growth. Industrial production advanced steadily, with the added value of large - scale industries increasing by 6.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. In September, the service business activity index was 50.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 56.3% [10][11]. 3.2 Inflation: Slight Improvement - In September 2025, PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, and industrial producer purchase prices decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The price pressure on mid - stream manufacturing eased, some export - oriented industries improved, the impact of international imports was divided, new productive forces industries maintained growth, and consumer demand continued to support. The year - on - year rebound of PPI in the third quarter was mainly due to the low base and anti - involution market expectations. In September, CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and core CPI increased by 1.0% year - on - year, indicating that domestic consumer demand continued to recover [20][40]. 3.3 Investment: Growth Rate Decline - From January to September 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 371,535 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Equipment and tool purchase investment maintained double - digit growth. In terms of industrial structure, investment in the first, second, and third industries all slowed down. Some high - end manufacturing fields showed prominent investment performance, while investment in some industries continued to contract. China is in a critical period of new and old kinetic energy conversion, but the endogenous driving force and resilience of economic growth are still increasing [55][56]. 3.4 Production: Continued Differentiation - From January to September 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The industrial structure continued to upgrade, and the utilization rate of industrial production capacity improved. However, industry performance continued to differentiate, with high - end manufacturing fields showing strong vitality and some traditional fields having low capacity utilization rates [60]. 3.5 Consumption: Growth Rate Slowdown - In the first three quarters of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 365,877 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%. The market structure continued to optimize, and online consumption and service consumption showed good growth. In September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.46%, a decline from the previous month, mainly due to the misaligned Mid - Autumn Festival and the high base formed by last year's consumption promotion policies [71]. 3.6 Real Estate: Still in Need of Improvement - From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The national real estate climate index declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and housing prices showed a mixed trend. The real estate market is in a stage of "policy support and endogenous adjustment", and future development depends on key variables such as the implementation efficiency of stock housing acquisition, the accuracy of private real estate enterprise financing support, and the deepening space of first - tier city policies [80][81]. 3.7 Appendix: National Bureau of Statistics Announcement - In the first three quarters, the national economy continued to develop steadily. GDP was 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. Agricultural production was good, industrial production grew rapidly, service industry development was stable, market sales increased steadily, fixed - asset investment was stable with a slight decline, goods import and export continued to grow, core CPI continued to rebound, employment was generally stable, and residents' income increased steadily [101].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the silicon manganese and silicon iron industries is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market oscillated weakly this week, with the main contract closing at 5,718 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the pre - holiday closing price. The silicon iron futures oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5,430 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton or 0.63%. Both silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations, and factors such as cost support, coal and electricity price changes, and regional policies should be monitored [1][2][5] - Silicon manganese enterprises are facing intensified losses, high production, and weakening downstream molten iron demand. Silicon iron enterprises have a slight decline in production, continuous losses, and weakening downstream demand, along with an increase in sample enterprise inventory [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Silicon manganese: The main contract closed at 5,718 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton or 0.73% from the pre - holiday closing price. The second - round inquiry price for mainstream steel procurement this week was 5,800 yuan/ton. The 6517 price in the northern market was 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton [1][5] - Silicon iron: The main contract closed at 5,430 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton or 0.63% weekly. The spot market sentiment was average, waiting for HBIS's standard. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,100 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - Silicon manganese: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 43.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The daily average output was 29,800 tons, an increase of 655 tons [1][8] - Silicon iron: The operating rate of silicon iron enterprises was 35.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.46%. The daily average output was 16,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62% or 434 tons [2][8] Demand - Silicon manganese: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products this week was 121,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [1][15] - Silicon iron: The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 19,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92% [2][15] Inventory - This week, the inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers reached a five - year high, and the silicon iron inventory also accumulated to a high level [20] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [3] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Coking coal**: Oscillation [3] - **Coke**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross - variety**: None [3] - **Spot - futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3] 2. Core Views - In the coking coal market, influenced by the continuous price increase of coal, the short - term replenishment demand from downstream and mid - stream has increased. Meanwhile, safety inspections in the northern regions have become stricter, leading to a price rebound. After the thermal coal price stabilizes, opportunities for shorting coking coal should be monitored [2]. - In the coke market, affected by the rising price of thermal coal, the price of raw coal has increased, and the enthusiasm for replenishment from mid - and downstream has grown. However, as steel mill profits have shrunk significantly, steel mills are strongly resistant, intensifying the game between coking plants and steel mills. The price of coke is oscillating widely, with an upper limit due to the expected steel mill production cuts and a lower limit supported by the rising coal prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the coke 2601 contract closed at 1,676 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase from last week. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1,179 yuan/ton, a 1.55% increase from last week. Affected by factors such as the post - National Day demand recovery, prices are oscillating strongly [1][5]. Supply - This week, the daily average coke production of independent coking enterprises in the Mysteel sample was 521,800 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 73.99%, a 0.96% decrease from last week [1][25]. Demand - According to Mysteel's research, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week but 2.34 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week and 19.05 percentage points lower than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 240,950 tons, a decrease of 590 tons from last week but an increase of 6,590 tons compared to last year [1][33]. Inventory - The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 595,080 tons, a decrease of 3,290 tons from last week. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 751,870 tons, a decrease of 14,580 tons from last week. Independent coking enterprises had a slight inventory reduction; the total coking coal inventory of the full - sample independent coking enterprises was 829,780 tons, a decrease of 17,210 tons from last week [1][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the coal market will maintain a relatively strong pattern due to demand support and sentiment transmission. In the long term, the supply remains in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of October 17, the Yulin 5800 - kcal index was 613.0 yuan/ton, up 46.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Ordos 5500 - kcal index was 555.0 yuan/ton, up 51.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the Datong 5500 - kcal index was 625.0 yuan/ton, up 50.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CCI Import 4700 index was 72.5 dollars/ton, up 2.8 dollars/ton week - on - week, and the CCI Import 3800 index was 56.3 dollars/ton, up 2.3 dollars/ton week - on - week [1][5] - **Port Inventory**: As of October 17, the total inventory of northern ports was 2183.0 million tons, a decrease of 142 million tons from last week [1] - **Power Plant Inventory**: As of October 17, the coal inventory of six coastal power plants was 1388.4 million tons, a decrease of 34.7 million tons from last week; the average available days were 17 days, the same as last week; the daily coal consumption was 83.5 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week [1] - **Freight Index**: As of October 17, the Ocean Coal Freight Index (OCFI) was 1046.24 points, up 143.23 points. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2069.00 points, up 23.00 points, a 1.12% increase [1] Supply - After the holiday, mines resumed production, but safety inspections became stricter, affecting the rapid release of production [8] Consumption - The terminal demand of downstream metallurgy and chemical industries continued to be released. The purchase prices of large groups increased, and the transportation demand of platform traders increased. There were queues of coal - hauling trucks at some mines, and the coal mine inventory decreased [2][10] Inventory - Due to good downstream demand, the coal mine inventory decreased [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: This week, the glass mid - and downstream demand weakened further, with both volume and price dropping, and the de - stocking pressure increased. As the consumption peak season is about to end and some production lines still have the expectation of resuming production, the glass price is expected to continue to run weakly [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains. There is still an expectation of further increase in high - level supply, the demand side has resilience, and the de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year. Soda ash maintains a weak operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Spread - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract 2601 was 1095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/ton, or a decline of 9.28%. The domestic float glass market price was 1246 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Soda Ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract 2601 was 1209 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton, or a decline of 2.5% [1][5]. Supply - Glass: The float glass enterprise operating rate was 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, remaining flat week - on - week [1][25]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the output was 74.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [2][25]. Demand - Glass: After the festival, the real estate demand continued to be weak, the deep - processing rigid demand of glass decreased week - on - week, the inventory of middle - stream traders was high, and the speculative demand also weakened [1][27]. - Soda Ash: The demand was relatively stable [27]. Inventory - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%, with obvious inventory accumulation [1][30]. - Soda Ash: The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%, with obvious inventory accumulation [2][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the iron ore industry is a weak and volatile outlook [3] Core View of the Report - Currently, the overall valuation of iron ore is relatively high, with supply being relatively loose at high prices. However, as steel mills' profits shrink, the expectation of steel mill production cuts is increasing, and there are signs of weakening future demand for iron ore. Attention should be paid to the negative impact on iron ore prices from the shipments of the Simandou project and steel mill production cuts, as well as the pressure on iron ore caused by future steel mill production cuts [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices trended weakly. As of Friday's close, the main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 771 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decline of 3.02%. The Platts 62% iron ore index was reported at $105.3/ton on Friday, down $2.1/ton week-on-week, a decline of 1.96%. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week [1][5] Supply - According to the latest data from Mysteel, the global iron ore shipments in this period were 32.075 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 715,000 tons, with a significant decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil. The arrivals at 45 ports in this period were 30.458 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.371 million tons [1][8] Demand - A Mysteel survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27%, basically flat week-on-week and up 2.59 percentage points year-on-year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points week-on-week and up 2.34 percentage points year-on-year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points week-on-week and down 19.05 percentage points year-on-year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, down 5,900 tons week-on-week and up 65,900 tons year-on-year [1][10][11] Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 142.7827 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.5377 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1572 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.128 million tons [2][13] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak and volatile - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - spot: None - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - There is still a contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market, and steel prices are oscillating downward. After the holiday, the demand for building materials recovered well, with a significant increase in apparent demand and better de - stocking performance. The demand for plates recovered slowly after the holiday, and there is a risk of market pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3,037 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.13%. The hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3,204 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.47% [1][5] Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, flat compared with last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points from last week and 2.34 percentage points higher than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points from last week and 19.05 percentage points lower than last year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4095 million tons, down 0.59 million tons from last week and 6.59 million tons higher than last year [1] Consumption - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.5695 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,600 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The output of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week, mainly because the steel mill profits shrank, and some steel mills had short - term maintenance. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products this period was 7.0778 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 860,600 tons, an increase of 12.16% [1][28] Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.8226 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 184,600 tons, a decline of 1.2%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week, with both factory and social inventories decreasing, and the decline mainly came from rebar [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is under pressure due to the continued loose supply - demand situation. PE and PP prices have weakened recently, affected by factors such as cost - end weakness, supply increases, and insufficient downstream demand [1][2][3]. - For PE, the continuous decline in its price is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. Although the demand for agricultural films has improved seasonally, overall demand remains limited [2]. - For PP, the weakening of the price is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern also fails to support it. The supply continues to increase, while the downstream demand recovery is slow, and the inventory removal pressure is large [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,874 yuan/ton (-55), and that of the PP main contract is 6,551 yuan/ton (-67). The LL North China spot price is 6,850 yuan/ton (-50), and the LL East China spot price is 6,950 yuan/ton (+0). The PP East China spot price is 6,570 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -24 yuan/ton (+5), the LL East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 19 yuan/ton (+17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and the PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), the PP oil - based production profit is -127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 131.8 yuan/ton (+66.9) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is -150.5 yuan/ton (+14.5), the PP import profit is -523.3 yuan/ton (+14.6), and the PP export profit is 25.2 US dollars/ton (-1.8) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1]. 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The recent decline in PE is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakened cost support from falling crude oil prices. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is limited except for the agricultural film sector, and the cost support is weakening [2]. - **PP**: The recent weakening of PP is dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices, and the loose supply - demand pattern. The supply continues to increase, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory removal pressure is large, and the cost support is weakening [3]. 3. Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. - **Inter - period**: Conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of propylene continues to increase due to the restart and capacity increase of PDH units, while the overall downstream demand has declined, and the cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. The supply - demand pattern of propylene remains loose, with insufficient upward driving force, but the downward space is also limited at the current low price level. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the impact of trade frictions on the supply of propane and the start - stop status of PDH units [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6007 yuan/ton (-99), the spot price in East China is 6165 yuan/ton (-25), and in North China is 6160 yuan/ton (-55). The basis in East China is 158 yuan/ton (+74), and in North China is 153 yuan/ton (+44). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 230 US dollars/ton (+4), the spread between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 139 US dollars/ton (+7), the import profit is -411 yuan/ton (-11), and the in - plant inventory is 41,490 tons (-1900) [1]. - **Propylene Downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 39% (-1.03%), with a production profit of -30 yuan/ton (+55); for propylene oxide, the operating rate is 68% (-4%), and the production profit is -51 yuan/ton (-33); for n - butanol, the operating rate is 90% (+2%), and the production profit is 19 yuan/ton (-66); for octanol, the operating rate is 92% (-4%), and the production profit is 100 yuan/ton (-3); for acrylic acid, the operating rate is 75% (-8%), and the production profit is 1173 yuan/ton (-32); for acrylonitrile, the operating rate is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is -622 yuan/ton (+52); for phenol - acetone, the operating rate is 78% (+0%), and the production profit is -625 yuan/ton (-99) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: Newly added 600,000 - ton PDH of Bohua and 650,000 - ton cracking unit of Yulong Petrochemical are shut down, the 450,000 - ton PDH of Tianhong has restarted after a short - term shutdown, and the Haiwei PDH unit is expected to restart. Coupled with the capacity increase of the restarted PDH units, the supply of propylene continues to increase [2]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate has declined. The PO and acrylic acid units have undergone centralized shutdown and maintenance, with a significant decline in operating rate. The operating rate of PP powder has decreased slightly. The downstream cost pressure is still relatively high, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity [2]. - **Cost Side**: International oil prices continue to decline under the pressure of weak demand and tariff disturbances. The price of external propane has rebounded slightly but is still weak. The cost side continues to drag down the propylene market [2]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the short - term trend remains weak. - **Inter - period Spread**: Consider a reverse spread for PL01 - 02 when the price is high. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No specific strategy is provided [3]. 3.4 Directory - related Charts - **Propylene Basis Structure**: Includes charts such as the closing price of the main propylene contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11]. - **Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate**: Covers charts like the spread between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][25]. - **Propylene Import and Export Profit**: Contains charts of the spreads between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34]. - **Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate**: Comprises charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46]. - **Propylene Inventory**: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65].