期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-06-30 工企盈利承压 ——中国盈利系列十一 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 6 月 27 日，国家统计局数据显示，1—5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 27204.3 亿元，同比下降 1.1%。 核心观点 ■ 营收压力仍存 总量：需求与价格双弱，库存压力仍存。2025年 1-5月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利 润总额 2.72 万亿元，同比下降 1.1%（较 1-4 月的+1.4%由正转负），主要受三重压力影 响：一是需求与价格双弱，PPI累计同比下跌 3.3%挤压毛利空间，叠加每百元营收成本 同比增加 0.24 元，进一步压缩利润；二是短期基数效应，投资收益等非经营性收益的 高基数下拉利润增速1.7个百分点；三是单月加速下滑，工业企业同比增速从4月的3% 大幅转负至 5 月的-9.1%，反映内需不足与"抢出口"效应消退的冲击。积极信号方面， 营业收入同比增长 2.7%，毛利润增长 1.1%，为后续盈利修复提供基础；装备制造 ...

liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 期货研究报告|纯苯专题 2025-06-29 纯苯期货及基础知识 研究院化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 摘要 华泰期货纯苯上市专题系列之一：纯苯期货及基础知识，首先是介绍纯苯的期货与期 权合约、期货交割品级、交割及仓单相关事项、限仓手数等内容。然后是介绍纯苯的 基础知识，介绍纯苯的物理性质、化学性质，以及重点介绍纯苯的生产工艺。纯苯属 危险化学品，易燃，蒸汽与空气可形成爆炸性混合物，遇明火、高热能引起燃烧爆 ...

股指期权日报 | 2025-06-27 股指期权日报 股指期权市场概况 期权成交量 期权PCR 上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报0.61，环比变动为+0.14；持仓量PCR报1.06，环比变动为-0.22； 沪深300ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.54，环比变动为+0.06；持仓量PCR报0.90，环比变动为-0.13； 中证500ETF期权（沪市）成交额PCR报0.68，环比变动为+0.12；持仓量PCR报0.97，环比变动为-0.29 ； 深圳100ETF期权成交额PCR报0.55 ，环比变动为-0.01；持仓量PCR报1.11；环比变动为+0.05； 创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报0.47，环比变动为+0.04 ；持仓量PCR报0.86，环比变动为-0.22； 上证50股指期权成交额PCR报0.31，环比变动为-0.05；持仓量PCR报0.67，环比变动为+0.00； 沪深300股指期权成交额PCR报0.38 ，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.65，环比变动为-0.01； 中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报0.51，环比变动为+0.00；持仓量PCR报0.95，环比变动为+0.01。 期权 ...

化工日报 | 2025-06-27 海外装置集中重启，EG震荡下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4293元/吨（较前一交易日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.69%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动-36元/吨，幅度-0.82%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 近期沙特、伊朗、马来等海外EG装置集中重启，EG价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-72美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为73元/吨（环比-22 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为50.6万吨（环比-3.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.7万吨，港口库存平稳；本周 华东主港计划到港总数6.2万吨，偏少，港口库存可能再度下降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供增需减趋势。供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓 单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，伊朗乙二醇停车装置陆续恢复中 ...

Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - China's independently developed CPU, Loongson 3C6000, was released, featuring self - designed instruction system and high - level security certifications [1]. - The financial regulatory authority and the central bank jointly issued a plan to build a high - quality inclusive finance system in the next five years, and the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025 [1]. - International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices recovered recently [2]. - The polyester operating rate decreased, and the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [3][4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: China launched the domestically developed Loongson 3C6000 processor, which uses the self - designed LoongArch instruction system, meets various computing needs, and has obtained a high - level security certification [1]. - **Service Industry**: The financial regulatory authority and the central bank released a plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries. The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025, and a detailed usage plan will be formulated [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - **Energy**: International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recovered recently [2]. - **Midstream** - **Chemical Industry**: The polyester operating rate decreased [3]. - **Downstream** - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly recently [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of different industries showed various trends. For example, the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry decreased from 56.96 last week to 53.47 this week [51]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries' price indices had different changes. For instance, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $64.9 per barrel on June 26, with a year - on - year decrease of 11.67% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - PVC: After the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East eases, the PVC market returns to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with supply in excess and cost - side support lacking. Although exports are stable, domestic demand is weak, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise [3]. - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream procurement is not active, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has risen. The caustic soda market lacks positive drivers, and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit still has room to compress [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4872 yuan/ton (+1). The East China basis is - 142 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 42 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. Production Profit - Upstream: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), and the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - PVC production: The gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The in - plant PVC inventory is 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social PVC inventory is 35.5 tons (+0.0) [1]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.43% (+0.81%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1]. Downstream Orders - The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 64.8 tons (+1.0) [1]. Caustic Soda Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2311 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 127 yuan/ton (-32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. Production Profit - Single - product profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1446 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Comprehensive profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 823.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 111.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1233.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.04 tons (+2.39), and the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.58 tons (-0.27) [2]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of caustic soda is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2]. Downstream Operation Rate - Alumina operation rate is 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2].

苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差659元/吨（+77元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润400元/吨（+148元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润205元/吨（-94元/吨），PS生产利润-545元/吨（-144元/吨），ABS生产利润213元/吨（-43 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-27 下游EPS开工提升，EB基差再度走强 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费169美元/吨（+8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费152美元/吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差55.6美元/吨（+2.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（-15元/ 吨）。 风险 纯苯方面，国产开工压力偏高，下游CPL及苯胺开工 ...

利好不足，市场氛围平淡 液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-27 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t6月26日地区价格：山东市场，4600—4830；东北市场，4160—4310；华北市场，4600—4650；华东市场， 4530—4700；沿江市场，4750—4960；西北市场，4300—4350；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌9美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4699元/吨，跌74元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，跌17美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4652元/吨，跌137元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，能源板块波动率下滑，LP ...