Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View After a long - term weak market, there are some marginal positive factors (rising international freight and improved chemical demand) in the LPG market, and market sentiment has improved. With the main contract on the domestic futures market switching to 2510, the market shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Spot prices in Shandong, South China, and East China have generally increased, and the market atmosphere is fair. However, considering that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not changed substantially, the driving force and space for continuous upward movement of the market may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - On August 25, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4500 - 4630; Northeast market, 3850 - 4130; North China market, 4100 - 4550; East China market, 4350 - 4480; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4790; Northwest market, 4450 - 4500; South China market, 4528 - 4550 [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 581 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton, and butane was 556 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4552 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4356 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 573 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton, and butane was 546 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4277 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be short - term oscillating and bullish. Traders can focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low levels of PG, but the upside space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 5.06% at 2,907 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.7% at 3,526 yuan/ton [1]. - After continuous decline, crude oil prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding, strengthening the cost - side support for fuel oil, but the oil market still faces downward pressure in the medium term [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure of the outer - market has stabilized. Supply pressure in the Asia - Pacific region has eased marginally, and the internal - external price difference of FU has rebounded strongly. If oil prices continue to rebound, FU may perform relatively strongly in the sector [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the current market contradictions are limited. Overseas supply has recovered, and the outer - market has shown a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - term, the industry still faces contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term; low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile in the short term and face crude - oil end suppression in the medium term. For cross - period trading, it is recommended to go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Crude oil prices have signs of stabilizing and rebounding after continuous decline, but the oil market still faces medium - term downward pressure. The cost - side support for fuel oil has strengthened again [1]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the market structure has stabilized. Middle East and Singapore fuel oil inventories have declined, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes from the West has decreased. The potential delivery resources of domestic FU have been restricted, leading to a significant rebound in the internal - external price difference [1]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, domestic production remains low, but overseas supply has recovered. The outer - market has weakened marginally, and the industry faces medium - term contradictions such as demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility is bullish, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term volatility, and medium - term faces crude - oil end suppression [2]. - Cross - variety: No strategy [2]. - Cross - period: Go long the spread of FU2510 - 2511 when the price is low [2]. - Spot - futures: No strategy [2]. - Options: No strategy [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Although the downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, due to the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remained relatively strong on Friday. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,710 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight opening price was 79,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,640 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was 79,270 - 79,520 yuan/ton. After entering the next - month invoice, it is expected that the trading will slow down, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper may remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro - level**: Fed Chairman Powell's speech increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US has included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list [3] - **Mine - end**: The Asian Development Bank will provide $410 million in financing for Barrick Mining's Reko Diq copper mine in Pakistan. Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has partially restarted operations [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Amid the Sino - US trade war, US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper through third - countries to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US have dropped significantly, but the overall import volume has remained stable [4] - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 1.20 percentage points to 71.80%, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously overhauled enterprises. The overall downstream consumption is weak, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased slightly, and it is also expected to decline next week [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Option**: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table - The table shows the price, basis, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and other data of copper on August 26, 2025, August 25, 2025, August 19, 2025, and July 27, 2025 [24][25][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of limited supply, high industry profits are not a factor restricting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term upward movement of aluminum prices requires resonance between a favorable macro - environment and strong micro - consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks caused by inventory accumulation, macro factors, and tariff impacts. For alumina, the supply is in surplus, and the prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken. For aluminum alloy, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and there are still opportunities for spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract [7][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 20 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. Central China A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,625 yuan/ton, closed at 20,770 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 20,800 yuan/ton and a low of 20,620 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,160 lots, and the open interest was 248,343 lots [3] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 25, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, with a change of 2.0 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 56,670 tons, down 474 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [3] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On August 25, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,190 yuan/ton, Henan was 3,215 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 372 US dollars/ton [3] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On August 25, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 3,141 yuan/ton, closed at 3,184 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 1.34%. The high was 3,216 yuan/ton, and the low was 3,141 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 455,135 lots, and the open interest was 193,845 lots [3] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 25, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil cast aluminum was 15,700 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical cast aluminum was 15,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [4] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 52,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,300 tons [5] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,097 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 4 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the off - season. In the long run, under the restricted supply, high profits are not a factor restricting price increases. In the short term, price increases need a favorable macro - environment and strong consumption. Currently in the off - season, there is a slight increase in social inventory, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after inventory accumulation, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, and long - term attention should be paid to delivery risks. Wait for long - term long opportunities brought by callbacks [7] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, the ex - factory price in Henan was 3,200 yuan/ton for 3,000 tons, and two transactions in Shanxi were both 3,180 yuan/ton, totaling 2,500 tons. The arrival price of a regular tender in Xinjiang for 10,000 tons was 3,450 - 3,460 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week. On the cost side, due to the decline in rainy - season shipments, the supply in the bulk market has decreased, and the transaction center of the ore end is at 75 US dollars/ton, while the sea freight is 23.5 US dollars/ton, up 1.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The bauxite price is in a stable and volatile trend. The industry still has smelting profit, and the supply is in surplus. The prices in the domestic and overseas spot markets are starting to weaken, the import window has opened compared with the southern domestic prices, and the situation of a weaker north and a stronger south in the domestic market remains. Currently, the futures price is basically at par with the spot price, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of the spot market transaction price [8][9] 3.2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The spread between the AD2511 - AL2511 contracts is - 410 yuan/ton. Consumption is starting to transition from the off - season to the peak season, and both the spot market price spread and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal recovery trend. Spread arbitrage in the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum with caution, bearish on alumina with caution, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral trading is "oscillation", while there are no ratings for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of asphalt has stabilized and rebounded, but the market's internal upward drive is insufficient. Although the growth of supply is limited, the improvement of rigid demand is also weak due to weather and capital factors. The market trading atmosphere is average, and speculative demand is weak. If oil prices continue to rebound, the futures market will be boosted, but the sustainability is questionable [2] Market Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2510 in the afternoon session was 3,512 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton or 0.95% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 191,301 lots, down 17,115 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 169,612 lots, up 30,160 lots from the previous day [1] - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are: 3,856 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,450 - 3,800 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,480 - 3,500 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The asphalt spot prices in North China increased yesterday, while those in Shandong decreased. The prices in other regions remained generally stable. Recently, crude oil prices have shown signs of stabilizing and rebounding, and the BU futures market has followed suit, with support at the lower end of the market beginning to emerge [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on August 25, 2025, including the trading volume, position amount, trading - position ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day, to reflect the market liquidity situation [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - Presents relevant data such as the trading - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position amount, and trading volume of each plate [4][5]. 2. Stock Index Plate - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 977.45 billion yuan, with a +19.45% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1414.789 billion yuan, with a +5.46% change; the trading - position ratio was 68.99% [1]. 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 605.548 billion yuan, with a - 1.88% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 786.438 billion yuan, with a +0.07% change; the trading - position ratio was 77.70% [1]. 4. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - **Basic Metals**: On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 405.571 billion yuan, with a +13.14% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 503.06 billion yuan, with a +2.51% change; the trading - position ratio was 94.93% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 383.375 billion yuan, with a +80.06% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 432.956 billion yuan, with a +3.30% change; the trading - position ratio was 110.19% [1]. 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 527.569 billion yuan, with a +12.84% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 430.6 billion yuan, with a +0.76% change; the trading - position ratio was 105.98% [1]. 6. Agricultural Products Plate - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 322.366 billion yuan, with a - 6.87% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 576.56 billion yuan, with a +0.04% change; the trading - position ratio was 49.81% [1]. 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On August 25, 2025, the trading volume was 398.172 billion yuan, with a +53.25% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 378.793 billion yuan, with a +2.51% change; the trading - position ratio was 97.76% [2].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 早熟嘎啦上量增加，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8141元/吨，较前一日变动+47元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-641，较前一日变动-47；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+859，较前一日变动-47。 近期市场资讯，早熟嘎啦质量不均，客商按需拿货，价格维持两极分化，好货维持坚挺难跌，一般货源价格混乱。 山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存富士行情维持稳淡， 山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西洛川产区纸袋嘎啦70#起步 主流参考价4-4.5元/斤附近，好货4.8-5元/斤，一般货2.8-3元/斤，实际以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/ 斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is range - bound, and a medium - term short position is recommended [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have rebounded recently but have not broken through the previous trading range. In the short term, this is mainly influenced by macro sentiment and geopolitics. Powell's statement has increased the probability of a September interest rate cut, boosting market risk appetite. Meanwhile, direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have reached an impasse, with the time and location of the talks undetermined, and the war shows no sign of easing [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.14 to close at $64.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose $1.07 to close at $68.80 per barrel, a gain of 1.58%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.16% at 499 yuan per barrel [1] - Indonesia's Trade Ministry urged the EU to immediately lift the counter -vailing duties on biodiesel imports as the WTO ruled in Indonesia's favor on several key claims in its complaint [1] - Iran will hold talks with the UK, France, and Germany in Geneva, Switzerland on the Iranian nuclear issue. The talks will also cover the lifting of sanctions, the nuclear issue, and the future of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 [1] - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have exacerbated the summer fuel crisis in Russia, causing prices to soar during the seasonal demand peak. In August, Russian fuel wholesale prices hit a record high, and fuel shortages have been reported in some regions [1] Investment Logic - Oil price rebounds are affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical factors, including the increased probability of a September interest rate cut and the deadlock in Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Short position in oil [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russia, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russia, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The October contract is mainly for short - allocation as it is a off - season contract, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The risk for the December contract lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline. [6][7][9] - The supply of container ship capacity is affected by factors such as ship delivery and empty - sail filling. The freight rate is influenced by supply and demand, economic conditions, and shipping company strategies. [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 25, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 80,906.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 49,119.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1496.90, 1284.00, 1445.70, 2136.00, 1358.00, and 1696.70 respectively. [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes from different alliances and shipping companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 36 was 1315/2210; HPL's quotes for the first half and second half of September were 1435/2235. In the Ocean Alliance, CMA's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes for the second half of August and September were 1510/2620 and 1410/2420 respectively. [1][3] - The final delivery settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points. The 10 - month contract is a quarterly contract, mainly for short - allocation, and the freight rate center continues to decline. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. [5][6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU, and the capacity in week 35 was 30.84 TEU. The average weekly capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 36/37/38/39 were 326,500/276,000/314,500/325,500 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in October was 282,300 TEU. [4] - In September, the two empty sailings of the PA alliance were filled. In week 38, the FE4 route was filled by HMM AQUAMARINE (13,788 TEU), and in week 37, the FE3 route was filled by HMM ALGECIRAS (23,964 TEU). HPL announced information about two additional ships in October. [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU had been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 859,000 TEU, and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 176,880 TEU. [9] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided, only figure references. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The US NRF estimates that the demand for container imports in the US from September to December 2025 will decline by about 20% compared with the same period in 2024. In the fourth quarter, Western holidays are concentrated, and shipping companies usually adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level. However, if ships from the US route are transferred to the European route, it may put pressure on European route prices. [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The high price of Malaysian palm oil may suppress demand, leading to price fluctuations and adjustments. The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell on Monday due to concerns that the recent high prices may suppress future demand. Although the overall demand remains good due to the upcoming festival stocking in China, the long - term inversion of the soybean oil - palm oil price spread also exerts certain pressure on the market [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9582.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8488.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.00 yuan or 0.35%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9891.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.00 yuan or 0.01% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9550.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.00 yuan or 0.74%. The spot basis was P01 + - 32.00, an increase of 80.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8620.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.00 yuan/ton or 0.94%. The spot basis was Y01 + 132.00, an increase of 50.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10010.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 119.00, a decrease of 1.00 yuan [1] Market News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 were 1065005 tons, a 16.4% increase compared to the same period last month. China has purchased over 70% of its October - shipment soybeans, and only 10% of November - shipment soybeans. The domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly last week. As of the week of August 22, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 220,000 tons, and an increase of 350,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will remain high this week, and the crushing volume will rebound to about 2.5 million tons. The C&F prices of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment), US West soybeans (September shipment), and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) were 471, 465, and 489 US dollars/ton respectively. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed (October and December shipments) were 550 and 540 US dollars/ton respectively [2]